Night 7: The Jaws of Death

[sphenodont]

Almost there!

Today's Maul Votes
jokerfish - 1
Okaros - 3
Omega - 1
rekard - 3
Ryvvn - 2 (immune)
stigmata - 1

[Okaros]

(( Can we muster any sort of coordinated snipe at EOD? With the lack of participation we may be able to brute force a win fairly easily even if all the participating humans agree.

I, for one, will be around. ))

[stigmata]

You mean maul rekard, lynch another human?

e: I won't be around at EOD (first day of a new job!), but I'm happy to vote early.

[Okaros]

(( We have two human targets for the maul, joker and rekard. So we can lynch whoever we want, no worries on that front.

Since it's lynch-or-lose, a vote before EOD will need to have a believable rationale behind it, otherwise you'll be announcing that you're a wolf.


The thing that's sort of baffling me is rekard's apparent immunity to the lynch. I made what I thought was a solid argument against him and nobody has batted an eyelash or even *commented* on it. It's like the post never existed. I wonder if he's privately claimed resolved Psychic or something? ))

[Okaros]

(( Meh. I stand by PM'ing Ryvvn yesterday. It's absolutely what I would have done in that situation, tone and all.

And yes future-Ryvvn, Zark absolutely was my Recovering Alcoholic prediction. I was proud of that list of predictions, dammit. ))

[Omega]

not the best way to start this day, but let's stay calm...

[Okaros]

(( I think you and I are probably toast, Omega, but once we're gone Aldax/stig can probably coast to victory. They blend in pretty much perfectly with the crowd of non-participants, I think.

My maul suggestions for the next two days would be rekard and Ryvvn, with Augie as a fallback. rekard is bafflingly beyond reproach for some reason so taking him out tonight shouldn't cause any more problems than we currently have. I don't think Ryvvn has much in his suspect pool past me, and once omega/rekard/me/ryvvn are gone there's nobody left active enough to drive discussion. CAD's suggestion of RaveBomb will probably win the game at that point, for lack of anything else for people to latch onto.

If we can maul rekard/Ryvvn, the remaining player base will wind up consisting of:

Aldax
stigmata
CAD
Augie
jokerfish
RaveBomb




Omega, would you be able to send out of a flood PMs this evening if it looks like you're locked-in for the lynch? Maybe a single multi-target PM to Ryvvn, me, Rave, CAD, and Stig or something? That would help ensure a wide spread of targets for mauls tomorrow.


*checks Day thread* That switch from Omega to Ryvvn by rekard is almost certainly bait rather than a serious switch. If we're lucky, one of Augie/Rave/joker will pile on Ryvvn early on and clear a path for us. ))

[Omega]

sure. I'll be watching.

[Aldax]

I kind of want to fall for rekard's bait, but at the same time I don't. I need a good explanation on this, so I'll go back and watch the vote tallies to make a case against Ryvvn or against someone else

[Okaros]

sure. I'll be watching.

(( Don't take that list of PM targets as gospel, that was just what came off the top of my head. I have no idea whether you should target 5 humans, 4 humans 1 wolf, etc... in this sort of situation so use your best judgement. ))

[stigmata]

I only have a couple of chances to post between now and EOD. I can't snipe, and I'll look like a wolf if I vote for a human now. How about I vote for Omega?

[Okaros]

I only have a couple of chances to post between now and EOD. I can't snipe, and I'll look like a wolf if I vote for a human now. How about I vote for Omega?

(( *reads this comment* *checks Day Thread* You sure do have a funny way of spelling "RaveBomb" here, stig.



I would assume that both rekard and Ryvvn will be around at EOD and sniping, so we should factor that in to any evaluations. Here's my current tally:

Omega : 3 : Clearasday, Okaros, RaveBomb
Okaros : 1 : Ryvvn
RaveBomb : 1 : stigmata
Ryvvn : 1 : rekard

No vote recorded (4) : Aldax, Augenvonsauron, Jokerfish, Omega


joker's a wild card. I have no idea how he'll vote but I'm betting he'll be in at the wire again.

No idea on Augie. Maybe a missed vote at this point? It's well past the time window I'd expect. Also a wildcard. ))

[Okaros]

(( Pondering strategy scenarios some more:

If joker and Augie no-show, our most likely possibility is a brute-forced coinflip. Ryvvn and rekard will swap to Omega and we'll be 4v4. Much better is if joker or Augie commit to a human somewhere, at which point we win if the other no-shows.

Ryvvn's EOD participation has been spotty these this game due to RL issues, but I'd expect him to try his damnedest to show up from here on out. He takes Lynch-or-Lose seriously, so I'm going to assume he'll be there every night.


Edit: CAD's switch to stig is fascinating... and implies that he'll be around at EOD as well. Bah. ))

[Omega]

any more thoughts on those PMs?

[Okaros]

any more thoughts on those PMs?

(( I'd say Ryvvn and joker at a minimum. Probably leave rekard out, as I think we want to maul him no matter what tonight. Do you have any sort of established PM history with anyone other than me?


Edit: Assuming the answer is "no"...

Ryvvn, Okaros, RaveBomb, jokerfish, Augenvonsauren maybe?
))

[Okaros]

(( And Augie basically forces us into a tie at best on Omega, I think.



If Ryvvn/rekard/CAD all have a collective brain meltdown at EOD and aren't around we can snipe Ryvvn, but I think that's incredibly risky to even contemplate. ))

[Okaros]

(( Oh, what the hell am I thinking? We WIN if we tie! We break ties!!

DUH.

Please disregard my earlier whingeing. Holy crap. Time to reconsider scenarios real quick.

EDIT: We're still pretty boned today, unless rekard stays locked onto Ryvvn and CAD isn't around at EOD.

Hard to tell how to play here, it feels like almost any choice is iffy (which means the maul pattern I opted for has had its desired effect, I think, given the chaotic disposition of the humans and my difficulty in figuring out what the likely votes are).

I think we can count on Augie not switching now. Joker remains the wildcard. What would a second vote on Rave do? Urgh. So many possibilities. ))

[Aldax]

Any maul targets?

[Okaros]

Any maul targets?

(( rekard->joker, just in case rekard somehow randomly get lynched. ))

[Aldax]

Mauling rekard -> jokerfish

[Omega]

PMed Augie, RaveBomb. No point in PMing Ryvvn, don't want to make him MORE suspicious.

[Okaros]

PMed Augie, RaveBomb. No point in PMing Ryvvn, don't want to make him MORE suspicious.

(( Could you PM me as well? I'd like to be at 1 PM from you tomorrow.

It occurs to me that Ryvvn has consistently had an unaccounted-for vote almost every day. Sending one just to ensure he's in the running might make him immune instead, which is non-ideal. Maybe take the chance that he'll get one and be tied and immune? Or dare we send a second PM to Augie or Rave?

))

[Okaros]

Sphenodont: rekard hasn't retracted his original vote for Omega yet. How do you want to handle that?

Edit: NM, you saw his failure to retract and updated accordingly.

Edit2: Also, I sent you a PM. Your tally has CAD voting for Rave, which while great for us is actually wrong. He's voting for Stig instead.

[Omega]

I'll be waiting to vote for Rave at EOD... Who knows, maybe we get lucky.

[Okaros]

I'll be waiting to vote for Rave at EOD... Who knows, maybe we get lucky.

((Do you guys want to gamble on people not being able to react fast enough? ))

[Aldax]

I think we can actually lynch rave

[Okaros]

(( If you think we can pull it off, I'll back you guys up at EOD. Snipe-post is primed.))

[Omega]

mine is typed up as well. we just need to make sure we don't block each other out.

let me go first at 5:59:50

[Omega]

Did we get it??!!

[Okaros]

(( Got it even without Aldax. Rekard was too slow.
Edit: Pretty sure my post delayed him (possibly Aldax too). ))

[Aldax]

Damn "people have posted" message

[Okaros]

(( Heh.

Oh, just in case:

Tiebreak - Kill RaveBomb

))

[sphenodont]

Jaws of death indeed. Puppy just chomped on my leg. I'll wrap this up when I staunch the bleeding.

[Okaros]

Will resolve this in a bit. Puppy just decided to test what the back of my calf tastes like...

((I believe I speak for the rest of the wolves when I say: You taste delicious. ))

[Omega]

Delicious.

[sphenodont]

(( Heh.

Oh, just in case:

Tiebreak - Kill RaveBomb

))

Technically, the tie-break wasn't made before EOD, so it shouldn't count...
You didn't choose a maul, either.

Wait, there it is.

[Okaros]

Technically, the tie-break wasn't made before EOD, so it shouldn't count...
You didn't choose a maul, either.

Wait, there it is.

(( Since there wasn't a tie before EOD... ))