Day 0

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Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 21 Aug 2014, 22:53:29

Reposting of description/rules from original pub post:

This will be an absolutely vanilla game:
- there will be humans
- there will be wolves
- there will not be any specials
- there will not be any PMs
- there will not be any hidden secrets, factions, roles, win conditions... there will be nothing extra
- there may barely be any narration aside from who was lynched and who was mauled
- but there will still be blood!

Feel free to RP anything you like, there will be no theme for this game other than a paranoid group of humans being killed by wolves.

Once I figure out how to set up actual game threads here, I will add responding players to the game and let Day 0 run over this weekend (giving others time to sign up); roles will be selected and sent on Sunday evening between 8pm Eastern (the cutoff time for signups) and 10pm, which Day 1 will begin shortly after. All EoDs will be at 10:00pm Eastern going forward, with usual 48hr day for the next weekend should the game reach it.

I'll repeat that there are no player PMs this game. The only PMs to be sent are if any players have a question for me, which I would require be submitted by PM if you don't want me to miss it; however, with this being totally vanilla, I can't imagine any one of you having any questions.

The number of wolves selected will be known upon the game start, and a killed player's role will be revealed upon the next morning's death report.

Each player will be required to vote for a lynch candidate in the day thread, anyone who misses a vote will receive a penalty vote against them for the next day, two missed votes will incur two penalty votes, third missed vote will be WoG'd (no matter what point the game is at). When voting please bold and color your votes; subsequent vote switches will not require previous retraction, I will simply take any player's last vote as their intended choice. I will be reserving the second post slot each day to keep an updated vote tracking sheet, which will simply be a list of player names and who they are voting for (with dead players struck out), like so:
Vote Tracker wrote:Aldax = rekard
Omega = rekard
rekard = not yet voted
Ryvvn


Not all wolves are required to log a maul vote, I will simply take the last wolf's vote for the group's maul choice.


Respondents:
7-zark-7
Admetus
Aldax
Blindsniper83
Clearasday
DastardlyOldMan
dferrantino
Elvera
FurinMirado
Hellheart
jokerfish
meta4
Mister E. Meat
necklessone
Omega
RaveBomb
Rictus
rekard
San
Snake
sphenodont
stigmata
Visigoth

Signups will remain open in original pub post until Sunday 8:00pm Eastern!

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Re: Day 0

Postby Omega » 22 Aug 2014, 16:58:49

I do love that new thread smell.

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Re: Day 0

Postby rekard » 22 Aug 2014, 17:56:02

Omega Punch!

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Re: Day 0

Postby Omega » 22 Aug 2014, 18:07:50

That's a secret recipe. I didn't realize this party called for it...

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 22 Aug 2014, 19:13:30

Ryvvn wrote:Signups will remain open here (and in original pub post) until Sunday 8:00pm Eastern!

I'm dumb.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Hellheart » 22 Aug 2014, 22:47:05

No RP this game (I'll switch avatars in awhile, most likely). Going to be analysis-heavy. Deal with it :P

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 22 Aug 2014, 23:31:42

I'd like to get opinions on optimal wolf count. Right now we have 19 players.

(rekard, I am taking what you suggested in the signup thread into consideration)

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Re: Day 0

Postby rekard » 23 Aug 2014, 08:18:30

Basically, it's more math and common sense than opinion. Calculate how many failed lynches should the humans have before losing.

Since there is no seer and no GA you have to reduce the amount of wolves.
Given 20 players:
Human:Wolf ratio:

15:5 - Only 4 mistakes allowed. Too low and wolves are very likely to win easily.
16:4 - 5 mistakes allowed. Acceptable, way better than the above option.
17:3 - 6 mistakes allowed. Good one and closer chances but too few wolves might not be as fun for some.

There was a suggestion posted once. With N wolves, a fair game would be where you have at least N+1 human lynches before losing, which I agree with.

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Re: Day 0

Postby rekard » 23 Aug 2014, 08:24:30

Hellheart wrote:No RP this game (I'll switch avatars in awhile, most likely). Going to be analysis-heavy. Deal with it :P


As long as you keep posts concise (Say it in 1 paragraph instead of 5) and accurate and don't do 10-20 posts per page it should be fine. And with accurate I mean not editing various of your posts 1-3 times.When this happens, it means you didn't have a clear idea and your analysis will get bypassed or ignored. Sometimes because players don't know you edited them.

Protip:

If you have to do a TLDR, you're doing it wrong.

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Re: Day 0

Postby dferrantino » 23 Aug 2014, 10:04:14

Ryvvn wrote:I'd like to get opinions on optimal wolf count. Right now we have 19 players.

(rekard, I am taking what you suggested in the signup thread into consideration)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)#Game_experience_and_strategy

Game theory says that to have a 50% chance of winning, #wolves = sqrt(#players)/2, so for 20 players that's 2 wolves. Humans win more often in practice though so bumping that to 3, 4 max makes sense.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Visigoth » 23 Aug 2014, 10:47:33

Ryvvn wrote:I'd like to get opinions on optimal wolf count. Right now we have 19 players.

(rekard, I am taking what you suggested in the signup thread into consideration)
16. But they are broken into 4 groups of 4 and the groups don't know about each other. Each group is trying for parity just like normal. The other 3 are part of a secret faction who's ultimate goal it to remove all of one particular group of wolves. Though in a twist one of those three is actually allied with that wolf group and is working to take over everything. After there have been 4 wolves (of any faction) killed they will be resurrected into a new fifth faction who will then be working to achieve parity between the wolf factions and the remaining human factions.

Wait... that's for an Omega vanilla game. For a regular vanilla what's been mentioned is pretty much the recommended numbers.

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Re: Day 0

Postby jokerfish » 23 Aug 2014, 11:36:45

Visigoth wrote:16. But they are broken into 4 groups of 4 and the groups don't know about each other. Each group is trying for parity just like normal. The other 3 are part of a secret faction who's ultimate goal it to remove all of one particular group of wolves. Though in a twist one of those three is actually allied with that wolf group and is working to take over everything. After there have been 4 wolves (of any faction) killed they will be resurrected into a new fifth faction who will then be working to achieve parity between the wolf factions and the remaining human factions.

Wait... that's for an Omega vanilla game.


LOL...that's Omega's version of vanilla?

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Re: Day 0

Postby Admetus » 23 Aug 2014, 11:58:29

dferrantino wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:I'd like to get opinions on optimal wolf count. Right now we have 19 players.

(rekard, I am taking what you suggested in the signup thread into consideration)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)#Game_experience_and_strategy

Game theory says that to have a 50% chance of winning, #wolves = sqrt(#players)/2, so for 20 players that's 2 wolves. Humans win more often in practice though so bumping that to 3, 4 max makes sense.

That article doesn't really apply to Internet mafia. The ability to go back and reread, and especially look at vote analysis, really skews it in favor of the humans more than that "everyone votes randomly" math.

(b) that the townsfolk never have a probability of identifying the Mafia that is better than chance
[...]
with perfect players the randomized strategy is optimal for both citizens and mafia

Those two statements are absolutely ridiculous in forum games. I know you already said "humans win more often in practice," but I would rather not bother even starting with math that has its roots in fundamentally invalid assumptions.


I'd say 4 wolves is reasonable since there's no seer.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Admetus » 23 Aug 2014, 12:05:20

Hah, that's great Visigoth. The funny part is, on the surface, that sounds like it could work.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Omega » 23 Aug 2014, 12:12:06

Visigoth wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:I'd like to get opinions on optimal wolf count. Right now we have 19 players.

(rekard, I am taking what you suggested in the signup thread into consideration)
16. But they are broken into 4 groups of 4 and the groups don't know about each other. Each group is trying for parity just like normal. The other 3 are part of a secret faction who's ultimate goal it to remove all of one particular group of wolves. Though in a twist one of those three is actually allied with that wolf group and is working to take over everything. After there have been 4 wolves (of any faction) killed they will be resurrected into a new fifth faction who will then be working to achieve parity between the wolf factions and the remaining human factions.

Wait... that's for an Omega vanilla game. For a regular vanilla what's been mentioned is pretty much the recommended numbers.


...did I leave that file in an accessible folder on the server... :shock:

Oops.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 23 Aug 2014, 13:03:06

rekard wrote:Basically, it's more math and common sense than opinion.

I slightly disagree with this: when dealing with humans, everything is subjective. Common sense is most important though, since common sense would take much more into account than simple math.

dferrantino wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)#Game_experience_and_strategy

Game theory says that to have a 50% chance of winning, #wolves = sqrt(#players)/2, so for 20 players that's 2 wolves. Humans win more often in practice though so bumping that to 3, 4 max makes sense.

It's the latter half of that Experience and Strategy section which make this a matter of opinion over math. Factors such as the environment the game is being played in (forum vs live), the type of players (analytical vs emotional), and the skill level of those players (seasoned vs new), all need to be taken into account to arrive at an opinion of what the optimal wolf count would be for a given game. For instance, with this particular group, I don't think 5 out of 20 players would be bad, however, I am going with 4 unless a few more join in.

I certainly appreciate the input, thanks!

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 23 Aug 2014, 13:06:38

Admetus wrote:
(b) that the townsfolk never have a probability of identifying the Mafia that is better than chance
[...]
with perfect players the randomized strategy is optimal for both citizens and mafia

Those two statements are absolutely ridiculous in forum games. I know you already said "humans win more often in practice," but I would rather not bother even starting with math that has its roots in fundamentally invalid assumptions.

Yeah, this.

Also, I find it funny that people would offer hardcore math suggestions to me, especially dferr who should probably know better :P

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Re: Day 0

Postby Hellheart » 23 Aug 2014, 14:50:47

rekard wrote:
Hellheart wrote:No RP this game (I'll switch avatars in awhile, most likely). Going to be analysis-heavy. Deal with it :P


As long as you keep posts concise (Say it in 1 paragraph instead of 5) and accurate and don't do 10-20 posts per page it should be fine. And with accurate I mean not editing various of your posts 1-3 times.When this happens, it means you didn't have a clear idea and your analysis will get bypassed or ignored. Sometimes because players don't know you edited them.

Protip:

If you have to do a TLDR, you're doing it wrong.

Well, to be fair the TLDR came because my post had been in-character. If I've learned anything from Zark's posts, it's that there are plenty of people who are not going to read through an in-character post just to pick out the bits that are actually game-related.

Other than that, I generally agree.

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Re: Day 0

Postby rekard » 23 Aug 2014, 16:32:08

Ah no, those are fine. TLDRs after RP are ok cuz it's RP. I mean just the moments where a player does big analysis and then does TLDR

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Re: Day 0

Postby Hellheart » 23 Aug 2014, 17:01:45

rekard wrote:Ah no, those are fine. TLDRs after RP are ok cuz it's RP. I mean just the moments where a player does big analysis and then does TLDR

I think this and combining different points in one unified argument are my biggest problems when trying to present analysis. I just need to separate stuff out and focus on the most important thing early (lynching a wolf) and then present other strategic concerns/reads/whatever in a separate post later in the day.

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Re: Day 0

Postby rekard » 23 Aug 2014, 17:01:50

Ryvvn wrote:
rekard wrote:Basically, it's more math and common sense than opinion.

I slightly disagree with this: when dealing with humans, everything is subjective. Common sense is most important though, since common sense would take much more into account than simple math.

dferrantino wrote:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)#Game_experience_and_strategy

Game theory says that to have a 50% chance of winning, #wolves = sqrt(#players)/2, so for 20 players that's 2 wolves. Humans win more often in practice though so bumping that to 3, 4 max makes sense.

It's the latter half of that Experience and Strategy section which make this a matter of opinion over math. Factors such as the environment the game is being played in (forum vs live), the type of players (analytical vs emotional), and the skill level of those players (seasoned vs new), all need to be taken into account to arrive at an opinion of what the optimal wolf count would be for a given game. For instance, with this particular group, I don't think 5 out of 20 players would be bad, however, I am going with 4 unless a few more join in.

I certainly appreciate the input, thanks!


There's always subjectivity but there are numbers and situations to avoid an initial unfair game state.

With math it is mostly general math for the proportions of misses needed. A 15:5 game composition with no roles is hard for humans no matter the group. It requires the wolves being bad and the humans being good. 4 misses is just too low and unfair for humans no matter who plays.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Hellheart » 23 Aug 2014, 19:36:45

rekard wrote:There's always subjectivity but there are numbers and situations to avoid an initial unfair game state.

With math it is mostly general math for the proportions of misses needed. A 15:5 game composition with no roles is hard for humans no matter the group. It requires the wolves being bad and the humans being good. 4 misses is just too low and unfair for humans no matter who plays.

To elaborate: the humans would have to lynch the first 3 wolves and one-shot the last two wolves in a row, and nobody can be confirmed human. Think about how insanely difficult that is for the humans.

Better way to describe this: if random voting on Day 1 and Day 2 kills humans, then the humans have to lynch all 5 wolves in 7 lynches.

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Re: Day 0

Postby rekard » 24 Aug 2014, 06:57:31

Yep. That's one of the main concerns regarding wolf count. The game needs initial conditions where both factions have a chance to win if they play decently.

We had a vanilla game like this where the proportions were 15:5. Humans won that time because wolves messed up and we had PMs that helped the humans have small alliances.

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Re: Day 0

Postby 7-zark-7 » 24 Aug 2014, 10:58:09

Ryvvn wrote:the type of players (analytical vs emotional)


You forgot batshit insane.

Seriously though, 25% seems to be our typical wolf percentage, unless there are other modifiers (vigilante strikes, etc)

More in a bit,

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Aug 2014, 12:12:26

Less than 5 hours left for signups, if anyone is not signed up whom you think probably should be, let em know!

As of now we have 23 players, so I'll be sticking with 4 wolves unless more join.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Hellheart » 24 Aug 2014, 16:40:02

There were a couple of funnier choices on my computer, but I just have to take the Arstechnica meme image. It's SO GOOD.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Aug 2014, 17:02:00

Signups are now closed, thanks to all of you who are about to participate in my first long-form game here!

I'll be selecting the wolves and sending out role PMs within the next hour or so, and Day 1 will start shortly after 10pm Eastern (2 hours from now)!

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Aug 2014, 18:06:56

Wolves have been selected and role PMs have been sent!

Please let me know if you did not receive a role PM, or if you did and were selected as a wolf please respond to that PM if you cannot see the wolf board. I'm pretty sure I did everything correctly...

:flail:

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Aug 2014, 18:19:41

So, umm, how does a GM force reserve the second post before a new thread is posted? Or are you GMs who do that just really fast at getting it reserved after putting up the new day?

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Re: Day 0

Postby rekard » 24 Aug 2014, 18:51:41

No post reserve. Just post a second post after.

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Aug 2014, 18:53:56

rekard wrote:No post reserve. Just post a second post after.

Well hopefully none of you itchy trigger fingers beat me to it :P

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Re: Day 0

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Aug 2014, 19:00:00

It begins!


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