Day 4

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Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 27 Aug 2014, 19:16:38

:?

Maybe... maybe you don't want to actually catch the wolves at all:

stigmata (human) has been lynched.

rekard (human) has been mauled.

[+] vote tally
4 stigmata <-- 7-zark-7, Admetus, Mister E. Meat, rekard
4 7-zark-7 <-- FurinMirado, jokerfish, Rictus, stigmata
2 Elvera <-- Hellheart, RaveBomb
2 Hellheart <-- Elvera, Meta4
2 RaveBomb <-- Blindsniper83, necklessone
1 Clearasday <-- DastardlyOldMan
1 DastardlyOldMan <-- Clearasday
1 FurinMirado <-- Visigoth
1 jokerfish <-- PENALTY
1 Meta4 <-- PENALTY
1 Mister E. Meat <-- PENALTY
*please note: votes against are listed alphabetically, not in vote order

Prove me wrong, I beg of you....

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Re: Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 27 Aug 2014, 19:16:48

Code: Select all

7-zark-7        --> necklessone
Admetus         --> RaveBomb
Blindsniper83   -->
Clearasday      --> Visigoth
DastardlyOldMan --> Rictus
Elvera          --> RaveBomb
FurinMirado     --> necklessone
Hellheart       --> FurinMirado
jokerfish       --> 7-zark-7
Meta4           --> Admetus
Mister E. Meat  --> FurinMirado
necklessone     --> RaveBomb
RaveBomb        --> FurinMirado
Rictus          --> necklessone
San             --> Admetus
sphenodont      --> necklessone
Visigoth        --> FurinMirado

PENALTY         --> San
PENALTY         --> sphenodont
*PLEASE NOTE: Those who have missed voting yesterday have received one penalty vote against them today. A reminder that missing three votes will result in an automatic WoG.

[+] the dead
Aldax (human)
Omega (human)
dferrantino (human)
Snake (human)
stigmata (human)
rekard (human)
Last edited by Ryvvn on 28 Aug 2014, 19:14:54, edited 11 times in total.
Reason: time stamp


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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 27 Aug 2014, 19:36:15

[+] Day 1
Aldax - 4 - San, Ravebomb, dferrantino, sphenodont, Furin, Zark
Stigmata - 4 - Hellheart, Rictus, Elvera, Aldax
Hellheart - 2 - Stigmata, Admetus
Meta4 - 2 - MEM, necklessone
Snake - 2 - Meta4, DOM
Admetus - 2 - Omega, Visigoth
Ravebomb - 1 - Blindsniper, Zark
MEM - 1 - sphenodont, Zark, Zark
San - 1 - Aldax, jokerfish
Zark - 1 - Ravebomb
CAD - 1 - rekard
necklessone - 1 - Snake
Jokerfish - 1 - CAD


[+] Day 2
dferrantino - 3 - CAD, Admetus, Zark
Zark - 2 - Stigmata, Ravebomb, Furin
Jokerfish - 2 - rekard, sphenodont
Ravebomb - 2 - Snake, Hellheart
Visigoth - 2 - Blindsniper, Rictus
CAD - 1 - Elvera
necklessone - 1 - San
Rictus - 1 - DOM
San - 1 - necklessone
Snake - 1 - Ravebomb
Stigmata - 1 - dferrantino
MEM - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 0 - dferrantino, Hellheart


[+] Day 3
Zark - 4 - Stigmata, Furin, jokerfish, Rictus
Stigmata - 4 - rekard, MEM, Admetus, Zark
Hellheart - 2 - Ravebomb, Meta4, Elvera, Zark
Elvera - 2 - Ravebomb, Hellheart
Ravebomb - 2 - Blindsniper, necklessone
DOM - 1 - Hellheart, CAD
CAD - 1 - DOM
Furin - 1 - Visigoth
Jokerfish - 1 - Penalty
Meta4 - 1 - Penalty
MEM - 1 - Penalty
Admetus - 0 - Zark

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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 27 Aug 2014, 19:47:02

sphenodont could easily be the 3rd-voting Day 1 wolf instead of Elvera. I'd be surprised if both were human.

The striked assumption only applies if there were multiple wolves at 2 votes. So it's a stupid assumption. I'm keeping it there because I'm trying to stop making stealth edits.

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Re: Day 4

Postby RaveBomb » 27 Aug 2014, 21:19:31

There ARE wolves, right?
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 27 Aug 2014, 22:07:16

RaveBomb wrote:There ARE wolves, right?

Subject: Day 1 wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Dearly beloved, we are gathered here today to witness Okaros' mangled body... clearly mauled by wolves. Four of them to be exact.

You should probably do something about that.

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Re: Day 4

Postby San » 28 Aug 2014, 00:34:57

You're all wolves.

That's the only possible explanation for all the lynches and mauls so far.

Admetus is very likely the Alpha.

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Re: Day 4

Postby sphenodont » 28 Aug 2014, 05:25:55

Sorry for the missed vote, but considering it was my anniversary, I'd say dinner with the wife takes precedence over you loons. ;)

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Re: Day 4

Postby Meta4 » 28 Aug 2014, 07:03:33

I'm all about unwarranted bandwagons, so let's get this party started. Admetus, step right up!
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 4

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 28 Aug 2014, 07:17:08

Sorry about the vote-and-run yesterday. As I had mentioned earlier, I didn't like either 7Z7 or stigmata as vote leaders, and I needed to get a vote in between work and volleyball (without actualy reading the thread), so I intentionally made a throwaway vote - CAD was one of the late singletons on Day 1 (which is as far as I got), so his name was in my head.

Rictus, my Day 2 vote for you was random, but you've had three single-word votes in three days.

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Re: Day 4

Postby sphenodont » 28 Aug 2014, 07:20:12

I'll put forth Mister E. Meat (retracted) as an alternate to Admetus.
Last edited by sphenodont on 28 Aug 2014, 12:21:28, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Retracted

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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 28 Aug 2014, 07:33:24

I think there's 1 or 2 wolves in this list, with a very small outside chance at 3:

Furin
Ravebomb
sphenodont (for more than just Day 1)
Admetus
Rictus

This is based mainly on heatmap triggers and possible safe voting patterns, along with the assumption that at least one wolf was in the 8-way tie on Day 1. There's only 5 unknowns in that tie now, so 2 wolves there is too much of a stretch for me to base anything on.

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Re: Day 4

Postby sphenodont » 28 Aug 2014, 07:36:31

You forgot to include yourself on that list, buddy.

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Re: Day 4

Postby necklessone » 28 Aug 2014, 07:48:35

Hellheart wrote:I think there's 1 or 2 wolves in this list, with a very small outside chance at 3:

Furin
Ravebomb
sphenodont (for more than just Day 1)
Admetus
Rictus

This is based mainly on heatmap triggers and possible safe voting patterns, along with the assumption that at least one wolf was in the 8-way tie on Day 1. There's only 5 unknowns in that tie now, so 2 wolves there is too much of a stretch for me to base anything on.


Plus myself, yourself, and the mystery wolf who's going to lone wolf this whole thing and no one will see it coming.

But then again, you already knew that.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Mister E. Meat » 28 Aug 2014, 07:57:06

I went back and re-read yesterday's thread. And the day before's as well. While Hellheart may have his fancy heatmaps, I just like to get the flow of the threads. First off, DOM/CAD sniping and semi-participation feels odd to me.

Nonetheless, I'm going to glom onto something that rekard said and Visigoth went further with.
rekard wrote:Though right now, Furin scratches an itch with him prematurely thinking of stigmata as human. Isn't it too early to say things like that? Hmmm.

Visigoth wrote:Day 1 [FurinMirado] helps put Aldax into a tie with stigmata which happens just moments before the whole 7-Zark-7 vote moves. Day 2 a bit of a late vote on 7-Zark-7 to put him close to danger but not really. And today jumps on 7-Zark-7 again while making note he thinks 7-Zark-7 is the more suspicious of the two even though at the time there were a number of others out there at 1 vote so it wasn't like it was a 2-way choice at the time. The vote only posts are a little suspect, but it's early so random voting possibly at play so not much to say when voting that way.


What's also a bit more with this is that we often (though not always!) see wolves as the second or third voter. FurinMirado was second on 7z7 yesterday. It's all a bit flimsy but at the same time, taken together it's pushing me toward him. Come to your own conclusions though.

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Re: Day 4

Postby FurinMirado » 28 Aug 2014, 09:13:48

Mister E. Meat wrote:I went back and re-read yesterday's thread. And the day before's as well. While Hellheart may have his fancy heatmaps, I just like to get the flow of the threads. First off, DOM/CAD sniping and semi-participation feels odd to me.

Nonetheless, I'm going to glom onto something that rekard said and Visigoth went further with.
rekard wrote:Though right now, Furin scratches an itch with him prematurely thinking of stigmata as human. Isn't it too early to say things like that? Hmmm.

Visigoth wrote:Day 1 [FurinMirado] helps put Aldax into a tie with stigmata which happens just moments before the whole 7-Zark-7 vote moves. Day 2 a bit of a late vote on 7-Zark-7 to put him close to danger but not really. And today jumps on 7-Zark-7 again while making note he thinks 7-Zark-7 is the more suspicious of the two even though at the time there were a number of others out there at 1 vote so it wasn't like it was a 2-way choice at the time. The vote only posts are a little suspect, but it's early so random voting possibly at play so not much to say when voting that way.


What's also a bit more with this is that we often (though not always!) see wolves as the second or third voter. FurinMirado was second on 7z7 yesterday. It's all a bit flimsy but at the same time, taken together it's pushing me toward him. Come to your own conclusions though.

In my own defense this:
Stigmata seems pretty Human to me right now.


I wasn't even 75% sure he was human. It was a hunch, but a better gut feeling than I had for anyone else. His posts contained a few indicators that seemed to lean towards human. That's why I went along with him to vote on Zark.

Now that we have 3 days I'm trying to put together some hard data. Will post something when I have more.

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Re: Day 4

Postby FurinMirado » 28 Aug 2014, 09:46:59

With the missing votes and all the singletons it is difficult to see much of a pattern here.

I do see that Admetus voted for dferrantino on Day 2 followed 7 minutes later by 7-Zark-7. Those two votes ultimately resulted in dferrantino's lynch.

I also see that Admetus voted for stigmata on Day 3 followed much later by 7-Zark-7. Although it is worth noting that Zark was defending himself at that point.


It's not particularly damning just...weird. Possibly coincidental but worth noting.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Elvera » 28 Aug 2014, 11:01:19

RaveBomb wrote:There ARE wolves, right?


Hmm so there are either no wolves or,

San wrote:You're all wolves.

That's the only possible explanation for all the lynches and mauls so far.

Admetus is very likely the Alpha.


Everyone is a wolf!

Interesting. Verrrry interesting. Who's a wolf hiding in sheep's clothing hmm? Which one of you is getting itchy wearing that suit?
Something is going to break soon, I can feel it!

I have my reservations about 7-zark-7, Hellheart, RaveBomb, and San.

But something tells me RaveBomb must surely be a wolf!

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Re: Day 4

Postby sphenodont » 28 Aug 2014, 12:25:15

neckless, would you like us to lynch you just to satisfy your suicide wish? :)

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Re: Day 4

Postby necklessone » 28 Aug 2014, 12:27:56

No, this really works better if you leave me alive only to, in death, discover that I am in fact a wolf and have been leaving subtle clues as to my lupinity.

Thanks for the offer, though.

After discussing it with the pack, the human I'd like to see day-mauled (that's a thing, isn't it?) is RETRACTED FROM Admetus.
Last edited by necklessone on 28 Aug 2014, 17:28:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4

Postby 7-zark-7 » 28 Aug 2014, 13:05:27

necklessone wrote:this really works better if you leave me alive only to, in death, discover that I am in fact a wolf and have been leaving subtle clues as to my lupinity.


How exactly is that better?

He didn't say better for who

Is this a good for the goose, good for the gander scenario?

that's the one with Foie Gras, right?

No, Pâté is neither good for the goose, nor for the gander

You know, you'd think that - but consider the perspective of the animals in question

That's exactly what I'm doing - having your liver made into someone's dinner isn't good for whomever previously operated the liver

From a certain point of view, sure... but it's "Fat Liver" we're talking about

being force-fed corn with a gavage isn't fun

You've tried it then?

What? No...

Then how do you know?

Can I talk to Mr Kerfuffle again? I think I preferred that

Hush - my point is that it's a domesticated animal - his needs are met

His needs... he's fed till he's fat and then eaten

Sure - if you only think about the end state...

But...

But nothing. His needs are met, and after he's eaten his fill - someone has to pay the check

The guy in the fancy restaurant? You're actually advocating for accepting one's state as a prey animal?

Not Prey - there's no hunting. At the end, you've eaten your fill & your time in the sun is complete. What matters after that?

Geese live in tiny cages, unable to move, they're force-fed until they nearly burst, and then someone eats them. How is this a desired state?

Have you tried Foie Gras?

Yes, but

And?

And I try not to think about the goose - that's just sick.

If you honored him, it doesn't have to be. I mean, just look at necklessone He jokes, but you can see just a trace of saliva on his fangs, yes? He's hungry... bless him

Can I please talk to Mr Kerfuffle again? You're really starting to worry me

((I can't shake the thought of the dead spinning in their thread at why we haven't lynched the self-identified wolf in our midst...))

More in a bit,

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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Day 4

Postby jokerfish » 28 Aug 2014, 13:12:29

Hellheart wrote:I think there's 1 or 2 wolves in this list, with a very small outside chance at 3:

Furin
Ravebomb
sphenodont (for more than just Day 1)
Admetus
Rictus


I know nothing about Hellheart's game but I know enough about RaveBomb's to not trust him or anyone he gets into protracted arguments with. With that in mind, here's a list of wolves picked out by my (admittedly poor) TWG sense...
-zark
-ravebomb
-hellheart
-stigmata

I probably won't be able to check in until tonight, so do me a favor and lynch a damn wolf, OK?
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Re: Day 4

Postby sphenodont » 28 Aug 2014, 13:13:42

I'm not likely to get a chance to post much around EOD.

I think Zark has been super-suspicious, but I think he's a convenient distraction for the wolves. The Day 1 voting was just bizarre, and seems like lupine miscommunication, but I think we need some alternate voting targets for at least a day to get some actionable voting history in place.

I can see the rationale for Admetus, but I don't like the runaway bandwagon.

Elvera is new, which buys some leeway, but doesn't change the fact that she's setting off all sorts of alarms.

My gut is telling me that HH is playing helpful wolf, and that MEM or Meta4 are potential stealthy wolves.

That being said, I will vote on necklessone because it would take massive balls to play the way he has been, if he were a wolf, and I think that should be rewarded. :)

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Re: Day 4

Postby Mister E. Meat » 28 Aug 2014, 14:26:25

jokerfish wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I think there's 1 or 2 wolves in this list, with a very small outside chance at 3:

Furin
Ravebomb
sphenodont (for more than just Day 1)
Admetus
Rictus


I know nothing about Hellheart's game but I know enough about RaveBomb's to not trust him or anyone he gets into protracted arguments with. With that in mind, here's a list of wolves picked out by my (admittedly poor) TWG sense...
-zark
-ravebomb
-hellheart
-stigmata

I probably won't be able to check in until tonight, so do me a favor and lynch a damn wolf, OK?

Stigmata is dead. We killed him. In vain.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Admetus » 28 Aug 2014, 14:55:27

Hi, I'm back from work. I'm not surprised that I'm among the lynch leaders today, after being a member of a couple "winning" bad wagons. Obviously, if I were a wolf, I'd be doing it quite poorly, as I haven't stayed out of the way with throwaway votes like plenty of others have. Now that I am at home with my notes, I'll continue to look for a better option, though I know it's late enough in the day that some of these votes won't be possible to move. This is going to take a bit of time, because without any red names on the charts, the logic puzzle is full of exceptions and weak hypotheses. I expect I'll have a vote between one and two hours from now. Even if I don't live today, hopefully I can provide a bit of guidance for tomorrow.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 28 Aug 2014, 16:31:31

sphenodont wrote:You forgot to include yourself on that list, buddy.

I also "forgot" to include Meta4 and San on that list, which obviously contains players that weren't in that tie. If there's one wolf there we're throwing darts at names to pick out the wolf...but if there's a wolf vote on Aldax or Stigmata in there we're working with 3 names: Elvera, sphenodont, and Furin.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 28 Aug 2014, 16:43:15

My biggest wolf suspect by a longshot is FurinMirado. MEM covered what has been said about him so far. But something very important is missing:

Look at the timestamp on FurinMirado's Day 1 vote

That's a really late first vote. It's late enough that I'm going to wager that he was holding onto that vote. But human Furin doesn't have a reason to hold onto his vote, because he never got a vote on Day 1.

Wolf Furin, on the other hand, would have good reason to sit on his vote. Before Aldax's self-defense vote, it was:

Stigmata - 3
Aldax - 3
Four Other Guys - 2

All four of those players are in danger at this point. If one of them is a wolf, then they needed to have a vote held back to save him, or at least push another human up to 3. I'm virtually certain that Furin would be that vote.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Clearasday » 28 Aug 2014, 17:15:51

I do like the case on Furin but I don't like voting with MEM. Dilemma.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Visigoth » 28 Aug 2014, 17:17:07

Going to stick with FurinMirado again. Nothing so far has really changed my mind on him. Yes he thought that stigmata was a human, which he was, but if he's a wolf he would of course already know that.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Admetus » 28 Aug 2014, 17:24:36

First, my vote. RaveBomb. Justification: I don't like how his Day 1 and 3 votes moved him away from a wagon that looked like it was going to get interesting, in one of those cases on a proven human. I don't think I'm falling for "that's so RaveBomb," the patterns of when and where he'd move are inconsistent with each other. In addition, RaveBomb's involved in both Day 1 and Day 3's multiple ties before a leader emerged. If he happens to be a wolf, it will really open up the analysis opportunities with several meaningful vote trains.


Then the current tally: (edited, was composing while Visigoth's vote came in) (oops! edited again because my notepad formatting of "canceled" was showing instead of strikethroughs)

Admetus - 3 - San, Meta4, necklessone
FurinMirado - 3 - Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, Visigoth
necklessone - 2- 7-zark-7, sphenodont
RaveBomb - 2 - Elvera, Admetus
Rictus - DastardlyOldMan
7-zark-7 - jokerfish
Mister E. Meat - sphenodont
sphenodont - penalty, Hellheart
San - penalty

Up next, some (likely) parting notes. Just a few more things to check out analysis-wise, and then a last full re-read of the previous threads.
Last edited by Admetus on 28 Aug 2014, 17:49:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4

Postby necklessone » 28 Aug 2014, 17:27:34

Sorry, RaveBomb, but I'm actually the wolf sociopath.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Rictus » 28 Aug 2014, 17:28:58

click.


T-19.
Orbiter's midbody umbilical demated.
Launch pad sound suppression system water tank filled.
Continuing orbiter close out.
Tail service mast close out.
Engage giant spider in level 1 diplomacy.


Image
Charming, to the last.
.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 28 Aug 2014, 17:55:44

Admetus wrote:In addition, RaveBomb's involved in both Day 1 and Day 3's multiple ties before a leader emerged.

That was my justification for the Day 2 vote. I still can't explain why out of all of the people in that tie, I felt that Ravebomb was the most likely wolf.

Up next, some (likely) parting notes. Just a few more things to check out analysis-wise, and then a last full re-read of the previous threads.

You're not going to die. Whoever's calling the shots is reasonably competent and they seem to be targeting players that are very difficult to lynch. You are very easy to lynch, so the wolves are hurting themselves by mauling you. Or you're a wolf, at which point they'd REALLY be hurting themselves by mauling you.

EDIT: Well, unless you're lynched. Obviously then you're going to die.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Rictus » 28 Aug 2014, 17:57:44

T-11.
Orbiter's fuel cells activating.
"Clear the blast danger area of all nonessential personnel."
Orbiter's purge air switched to gaseous nitrogen.
"necklessone report to the blast danger area."
Charming, to the last.
.

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Re: Day 4

Postby FurinMirado » 28 Aug 2014, 18:12:04

Hellheart wrote:My biggest wolf suspect by a longshot is FurinMirado. MEM covered what has been said about him so far. But something very important is missing:

Look at the timestamp on FurinMirado's Day 1 vote

That's a really late first vote. It's late enough that I'm going to wager that he was holding onto that vote. But human Furin doesn't have a reason to hold onto his vote, because he never got a vote on Day 1.

Yeah, because I didn't do anything like that on Day 1 of the last game. Oh wait, I did:

Final Destination Day 1
If the deadline hadn't been extended I would have missed the vote entirely, which was the case in this game as well.

You have also conveniently missed Days 2 through 4 of the same game where I voted within an hour of deadline. In case your goldfish memory has kicked in, I was human in that game. Voting late is not a suspicious action, no matter how much you want it to be so.

Pushing hard for me (someone that's easy to lynch) with faulty reasoning IS very suspicious though, Hellheart

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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 28 Aug 2014, 18:19:18

FurinMirado wrote:Yeah, because I didn't do anything like that on Day 1 of the last game. Oh wait, I did:

Final Destination Day 1
If the deadline hadn't been extended I would have missed the vote entirely, which was the case in this game as well.

And you voted for Blindsniper, putting him in a tie with Aldax and Snake. This was very important, because your Seer list was as follows (bold and blue is mine for emphasis):

FurinMirado
Trust Fund Kid - That PJ
Recently-Detached Siamese Twin - Hellheart
Retired High School Earth Sciences Teacher - Snake
Contract Assassin - 7-zark-7
Best Friend - Mister E. Meat
Love Interest - Iron Clad Burrito


You cast your vote with an agenda: you wanted to save a vision to remain a valid Psychic. It happened to be a safe little tying vote there too, to keep yourself under the radar. Otherwise you would've just killed Aldax.

Look, there's two explanations: you either sat on your vote until then, or you caught up on the thread at the perfect most convenient time to re-tie Aldax with Stigmata. It's both about when your vote was cast and what your vote actually did, which was push a human into a tie with another human at 4 votes.
Last edited by Hellheart on 28 Aug 2014, 18:20:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Admetus » 28 Aug 2014, 18:19:51

Hellheart wrote:You're not going to die. Whoever's calling the shots is reasonably competent and they seem to be targeting players that are very difficult to lynch. You are very easy to lynch, so the wolves are hurting themselves by mauling you. Or you're a wolf, at which point they'd REALLY be hurting themselves by mauling you.

EDIT: Well, unless you're lynched. Obviously then you're going to die.

I appreciate the sentiment. Mainly I was thinking I was a goner because I hadn't even gotten time to post before I was in the lead, and my own analysis suggested that lynching me would provide decent information to the humans. On my charts, it's pretty helpful to know I'm human, but I'm the only one who knows that right now.

Not that I'd mind living! I like the playing part better than the ghostly wailing part of the game.

Getting all my ducks in a row has produced several pages of notes today. I'm not going to flood the box, I learned that lesson long ago. I just want to bring up one topic.

The number of wolves is smallish for this number of people, and I think dealing with that takes some adjusting for people. There's no guarantee that there's any wolf that hit the 2+ zone on Day 1, and building hypotheticals around that is still rough. Sure it would be nice if a wolf was caught that would fit into a tidy story about ties and wolf pushes, but there are enough humans humaning around that we may have handed the wolves the easiest start in the books. Let me put it this way. Today with three mislynches in a row and six dead humans, there are still 13 humans for 4 wolves, meaning that four mistakes and four wolf lynches would still be a human win.

So, we may need to engage some of the people that haven't had any pressure up to this point.

No votes at all yet:
Blindsniper83, Visigoth

Only token pressure, no danger:
Clearasday, DastardlyOldMan, jokerfish, Mister E. Meat, necklessone, Rictus, sphenodont

FurinMirado was on the list before today, so that's nice. I think I'll stop here before this gets too long.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Admetus » 28 Aug 2014, 18:27:06

Admetus wrote:So, we may need to engage some of the people that haven't had any pressure up to this point.

You know what, that's not a very wise statement now that I think about it a bit more. It's a pretty normal occurrence in a wolf game that there are people who don't get much pressure, especially as early as Day 4. The reason I meandered in that direction is that I've been focusing a bit on the low wolf count and the possibilities of wolves slipping through the cracks, but there's already information on some of those guys in other places.

So, herp-a-derp, I guess.

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Re: Day 4

Postby RaveBomb » 28 Aug 2014, 18:27:14

Oh man, what a day to get a head cold. :(

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If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 4

Postby Clearasday » 28 Aug 2014, 18:30:05

Let's endanger Visigoth, although I have my eye and my other eye on Admetus, Rictus and Furin. I don't want to be pushing Furin out too far ahead.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Visigoth » 28 Aug 2014, 18:31:47

Admetus wrote:No votes at all yet:
Blindsniper83, Visigoth
I must have hallucinated Day 2 then when I got two votes.

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Re: Day 4

Postby FurinMirado » 28 Aug 2014, 18:32:17

Hellheart wrote:
You cast your vote with an agenda: you wanted to save a vision to remain a valid Psychic. It happened to be a safe little tying vote there too, to keep yourself under the radar. Otherwise you would've just killed Aldax.

Look, there's two explanations: you either sat on your vote until then, or you caught up on the thread at the perfect most convenient time to re-tie Aldax with Stigmata. It's both about when your vote was cast and what your vote actually did, which was push a human into a tie with another human at 4 votes.

No, I cast my vote so I wouldn't miss a day of voting. I barely had time to read my PMs, let alone understand the rules.

Case in point:
Note: If someone has Furin on Steam or some other IM, can you ping him and let him know the game has started?

This was at 1 hour before EOD. Sphenodont was concerned because I hadn't read my PMs yet. I never even submitted my choices on Day 0.


My point is, RL is going to frequently cause me to vote late in the day. If this is going to be used to lynch me, I might as well not play.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Admetus » 28 Aug 2014, 18:33:08

Tally:

FurinMirado - 4 - Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, Visigoth, RaveBomb
RaveBomb - 3 - Elvera, Admetus, necklessone
necklessone - 3 - 7-zark-7, sphenodont, Rictus
Admetus - San, Meta4, necklessone
Rictus - DastardlyOldMan
7-zark-7 - jokerfish
Hellheart - FurinMirado
Visigoth - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - sphenodont
sphenodont - penalty, Hellheart
San - penalty

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Re: Day 4

Postby Admetus » 28 Aug 2014, 18:36:08

Visigoth wrote:
Admetus wrote:No votes at all yet:
Blindsniper83, Visigoth
I must have hallucinated Day 2 then when I got two votes.

I must have overlooked that. That'll bump you to "only token pressure" because you were never in any danger whatsoever. But like I said just after that, that's not exactly my hit list.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 28 Aug 2014, 18:38:49

Can somebody tie Ravebomb with Furin? I don't like voting with Ravebomb. He's my #2 wolf suspect.

EDIT: Actually, Furin can tie Ravebomb with Furin. Nevermind then.

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Re: Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 28 Aug 2014, 18:44:58

Admetus wrote:
Admetus wrote:So, we may need to engage some of the people that haven't had any pressure up to this point.

You know what, that's not a very wise statement now that I think about it a bit more. It's a pretty normal occurrence in a wolf game that there are people who don't get much pressure, especially as early as Day 4. The reason I meandered in that direction is that I've been focusing a bit on the low wolf count and the possibilities of wolves slipping through the cracks, but there's already information on some of those guys in other places.

So, herp-a-derp, I guess.

I think our best bet is to keep making close races like this to get as much voting data as possible. Hopefully we've been pressuring a wolf or two at various points. Players like Blindsniper, Meta4, and San don't reveal much of anything under pressure, but other wolves may still make votes or soft pushes to save otherwise unreadable wolves.

EDIT: A wolf in that Day 1 tie is still statistically likely. 17 players left with 4 wolves = ~1/4 chance a given player is a wolf. 5/4 = 1.25 wolves in that tie, assuming completely random voting.

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Re: Day 4

Postby FurinMirado » 28 Aug 2014, 18:59:22

necklessone

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Re: Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 28 Aug 2014, 19:02:15

usual notice, though slightly behind, hoping within 30 mins, but conservatively expect day 5 within the hour

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Re: Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 28 Aug 2014, 19:15:35

Noticed I forgot to include RaveBomb's vote in the second post updates, fixed that.


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