Day 9

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Day 9

Postby Ryvvn » 03 Sep 2014, 19:22:00

:flail:

I don't even know what you all are doing anymore, stop the madness:

Clearasday (human) has been lynched.

7-zark-7 (human) has been mauled.

[+] vote tally
5 Clearasday <-- Admetus, Blindsniper83, DastardlyOldMan, Meta4, Mister E. Meat
3 Admetus <-- 7-zark-7, Clearasday, Visigoth
1 Mister E. Meat <-- RaveBomb
*please note: votes against are listed alphabetically, not in vote order

I fear whatever it is you lunatics do next....

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Re: Day 9

Postby Ryvvn » 03 Sep 2014, 19:22:08

Code: Select all

Admetus         --> Meta4
Blindsniper83   --> RaveBomb
DastardlyOldMan --> Blindsniper83
Meta4           --> RaveBomb
Mister E. Meat  --> Meta4
RaveBomb        --> Meta4
Visigoth        --> Admetus
*PLEASE NOTE: Everyone voted yesterday, let's keep it up!

[+] the dead
Aldax (human)
Omega (human)
dferrantino (human)
Snake (human)
stigmata (human)
rekard (human)
FurinMirado (wolf)
sphenodont (human)
Rictus (human)
Hellheart (human)
necklessone (human)
jokerfish (human)
Elvera (wolf)
San (human)
Clearasday (human)
7-zark-7 (human)
Last edited by Ryvvn on 04 Sep 2014, 18:40:09, edited 6 times in total.
Reason: time stamp

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Re: Day 9

Postby Blindsniper83 » 03 Sep 2014, 19:39:23

By dammit,

lets start this and see if a train starts

RaveBomb
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Re: Day 9

Postby Admetus » 03 Sep 2014, 20:30:50

Well, poop. That was supposed to be the easy wolf.

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Re: Day 9

Postby Mister E. Meat » 03 Sep 2014, 20:39:45

With his "impassioned" plea yesterday I started to feel like we made a mistake. Now I know we did. I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that meta4 is a wolf which explains sort of why necklessone got the vote over Elvera.

I have to admit, I'm kind of out of ideas though. We need someone who is good at vote analysis to see who Elvera and/or Furin voted with. I don't know if that will single out anyone but it's worth a shot.

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Re: Day 9

Postby Admetus » 03 Sep 2014, 21:33:00

Colored votes.
[+] Day 1
stigmata - 4 - Hellheart, Rictus, Elvera, Aldax
Aldax - 4 - San, dferrantino, sphenodont, FurinMirado
Snake - 2 - Meta4, DastardlyOldMan
Hellheart - 2 - stigmata, Admetus
Meta4 - 2 - Mister E. Meat, necklessone
Admetus - 2 - Omega, Visigoth
San - jokerfish
RaveBomb - Blindsniper83
Clearasday - rekard
necklessone - Snake
7-zark-7 - RaveBomb
jokerfish - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - 7-zark-7

Aldax is lynched, Omega is mauled

[+] Day 2
dferrantino - 3 - Clearasday, Admetus, 7-zark-7
RaveBomb - 2 - Snake, Hellheart
jokerfish - 2 - rekard, sphenodont
7-zark-7 - 2 - stigmata, FurinMirado
Visigoth - 2 - Blindsniper83, Rictus
necklessone - San
Rictus - DastardlyOldMan
stigmata - dferrantino
Clearasday - Elvera
Snake - RaveBomb
San - necklessone
Mister E. Meat - Visigoth

Did not vote:
jokerfish
Meta4
Mister E. Meat

dferrantino is lynched, Snake is mauled

[+] Day 3
7-zark-7 - 4 - stigmata, FurinMirado, jokerfish, Rictus
stigmata - 4 - rekard, Mister E. Meat, Admetus, 7-zark-7
Hellheart - 2 - Meta4, Elvera
RaveBomb - 2 - Blindsniper83, necklessone
Elvera - 2 - RaveBomb, Hellheart
DastardlyOldMan - Clearasday
Clearasday - DastardlyOldMan
FurinMirado - Visigoth

Did not vote:
San
sphenodont

stigmata is lynched, rekard is mauled

[+] Day 4
FurinMirado - 4 - Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, Visigoth, RaveBomb
necklessone - 4 - 7-zark-7, sphenodont, Rictus, FurinMirado
RaveBomb - 3 - Elvera, Admetus, necklessone
Admetus - 2 - San, Meta4
Rictus - DastardlyOldMan
7-zark-7 - jokerfish
Visigoth - Clearasday

Did not vote:
Blindsniper83

FurinMirado is lynched, sphenodont is mauled

[+] Day 5
Rictus - 5 - Admetus, Visigoth, Clearasday, necklessone, Hellheart
Clearasday - 4 - DastardlyOldMan, Mister E. Meat, RaveBomb, Rictus
RaveBomb - 2 - Blindsniper83, jokerfish
San - Elvera
Elvera - San
necklessone - 7-zark-7

Did not vote:
Meta4

Rictus is lynched, Hellheart is mauled

[+] Day 6
necklessone - 3 - Meta4, Elvera, jokerfish
Elvera - 3 - 7-zark-7, Visigoth, San
Clearasday - 3 - Mister E. Meat, DastardlyOldMan, Admetus
Visigoth - 2 - Clearasday, RaveBomb
Meta4 - necklessone
RaveBomb - Blindsniper83

necklessone is lynched, jokerfish is mauled

[+] Day 7
Elvera - 5 - Mister E. Meat, RaveBomb, 7-zark-7, Visigoth, Admetus
DastardlyOldMan - 2 - Meta4, Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - San
Meta4 - DastardlyOldMan
RaveBomb - Blindsniper83
San - Elvera

Elvera is lynched, San is mauled

[+] Day 8
Clearasday - Mister E. Meat, Meta4, Admetus, Blindsniper83, DastardlyOldMan
Admetus - Clearasday, Visigoth, 7-zark-7
Mister E. Meat - RaveBomb

Clearasday was lynched, 7-zark-7 was mauled

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Re: Day 9

Postby Admetus » 03 Sep 2014, 21:34:48

Day 2's votes look like a pretty clear indication of what the wolves were after with mauling Zark. Is that what you were talking about, MEM?

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Re: Day 9

Postby Meta4 » 04 Sep 2014, 05:41:23

I'm not a wolf, so that means Redacted - Was Mister E. Meat must be.
Last edited by Meta4 on 04 Sep 2014, 10:46:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Day 9

Postby RaveBomb » 04 Sep 2014, 06:45:21

You know what really bugs me? Meta4 didn't vote for me day one.
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 9

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 04 Sep 2014, 07:12:02

There isn't a lot to go on for analysis, to be honest. With the low number of wolves, we're in the same situation as last game - it seems like an advantage for us, but it actually ends up making it easier for them to hide.

[+] This got long and is now spoiled.
Distribution-wise, look at Day 1 (Admetus' chart covers this, so I'm not copying it in here).

There was, as pretty much normal, one wolf on each of the 4-vote wagons. Of the four 2-vote wagons, 2 were for humans and 2 were for unknowns, and FIVE of the remaining 7 players are mixed in with those. Again, distribution wise, you'd expect the remaining two wolves to be in those off wagons - which is where literally everyone is. That buys us squat. Of the two wolves, everyone they voted with and against on that day are dead.

Day 2: Admetus is sitting there as the last voter on the winning dferrantino lynch (which stands out a little bit), but there were another four 2-vote wagons, which only had 1 wolf so far. Furin voted for 7Z7, Elvera for CAD. Again, everyone they voted for or with are dead. blindsniper was on a 2-vote wagon, and everyone else is scattered on singletons, and we have RaveBomb and Visigoth as unknowns on those 2-vote wagons.

Day 3: Elvera and Meta4 voted together on an offwagon (on HH) - that seems an odd place for two wolves to group. RaveBomb voted with Hellheart against Elvera that day, but again, a pretty offwagon, so there wasn't much threat to that. From a distribution perspective, I'd expect there to be a wolf out of (MEM, Admetus) as the last two remaining on the second wagon, opposite Furin on the first wagon. Everyone else is scattered; Visigoth had a singleton vote on Furin.

Day 4: Here we have the Furin lynch - with MEM, Visigoth, and RaveBomb still alive on his wagon. The distribution here is a bit strange. I could argue that Elvera (voting with Admetus, on RaveBomb) may have been trying to save Furin, but if so, why not vote on human necklessone? If you look at the hypothetical of Admetus as a wolf, then you have two wolves stacked on top of each other, so she wouldn't have been worried about stacking on top of Furin to save him.

Important bit here: RaveBomb isn't a wolf in this scenario. If wolf RaveBomb voted for wolf Furin to pressure him, all wolf Furin had to do was vote for wolf RaveBomb. Then wolf RaveBomb, in order to save his own skin, changes his vote to human necklessone, leaving it 5/3/3 instead of 4/4/3. You have two wolves threatening each other and providing perfect cover to lynch the human necklessone - it would have been the perfect win/win. Since that didn't happen, I'm going to go out and say that RaveBomb is highly likely to be human (not discounting the RaveBomb is being RaveBomb scenario).

Everyone voting with Furin is dead from that day.

Day 5: Elvera and San voted against each other, no other wolves known. Distribution-wise, probably one wolf on each of the two big wagons (which is five of the seven remaining players).

Day 6: Elvera and meta4 voted on necklessone, Visigoth's the last remaining voter on Elvera. Not a lot there, except to note that MEM, DOM, and Admetus voted were on an opposite wagon on CAD - neither joining against Elvera or really saving her. Admetus could easily have voted for necklessone to push him ahead of Elvera. The wolves seemed satisfied to take the tie here.

Day 7: Elvera was mainly a landslide. Meta4, myself, and blindsniper were off-wagon.

Day 8: Visigoth and RaveBomb were off-wagon on the CAD lynch.

From that perspective, I'd paint RaveBomb as the most likely human. Admetus and blindsniper keep showing up in distributions a bit (blindsniper, though, partly because I'm considering RaveBomb as human), but I haven't found distribution mapping to be much better than random flailing. Case in point, Admetus: He shows up clearly as "distribution wolf" on Day 2, but on Day 4, he's clearly "distribution human".

I'm going with blindsniper, though - his uncanny devotion to putting a singleton vote on RaveBomb seems odd, and I've never gotten a clear picture as to what the reasoning is (if any).

stealth edit: And in retrospect, I'm hesitant to add a fourth singleton vote. That's half of our votes. Retracting the bold and color part of this.

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Re: Day 9

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 04 Sep 2014, 07:14:24

Meta4 - 2
MEM - 1
RaveBomb - 1

(in retro-retrospect, it wouldn't have been a fourth singleton).

blindsniper83

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Re: Day 9

Postby RaveBomb » 04 Sep 2014, 07:49:27

I am SO tempted to change my vote right now just to have a five way singleton tie. :mrgreen:
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 9

Postby Meta4 » 04 Sep 2014, 10:45:48

Let's make this interesting. RaveBomb.
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 9

Postby RaveBomb » 04 Sep 2014, 11:24:41

Awesome!

So... would human meta4 endanger himself at this late game? Maybe, but I'm not totally sure. Maybe it's a wolf play to try to dogpile (*snerk*) me and bring the game that much more into their control.

Would wolf meta4 do the same? It's hard to say. Depends on who the other wolf is.

Personally, bring it, I'm all for it.

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Re: Day 9

Postby Mister E. Meat » 04 Sep 2014, 11:44:14

Meta4 wrote:Let's make this interesting. RaveBomb.

Are you doing this because you disagree with Admetus or for some other reason?

Personally, I'm not 100% on Rave being human, nonetheless I think it's pretty likely given that necklessone was.

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Re: Day 9

Postby RaveBomb » 04 Sep 2014, 12:00:21

Mister E. Meat wrote:
Meta4 wrote:Let's make this interesting. RaveBomb.

Are you doing this because you disagree with Admetus or for some other reason?

Personally, I'm not 100% on Rave being human, nonetheless I think it's pretty likely given that necklessone was.


It's either a revenge vote, or maybe it's a wolf tactic to try to bandwagon me.

A vote for meta4, is a vote for a wolf free future.
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Re: Day 9

Postby Admetus » 04 Sep 2014, 12:36:29

The evidence is mounting that the wolves have either one or both members hiding off the important wagons. Meta4 is a really tempting candidate because his two missed votes give a reasonable explanation for why he hasn't come up much in conversation, and answers the nagging question "where are the wolves on Day 2?" But at the same time, it's really hard for me to get past the pairing where he would have voted together with Elvera on Day 3 and Day 6. Once, sure, but twice? I can't really see those pairings as crucial wolf defenses. A re-read of the threads doesn't suggest any urgent need for double wolf pressure. Day 6, maybe, since two votes were on Elvera when she picked from the singletons -- but there were so many singletons, surely one without a wolf might have been easier.

Mister E. Meat wrote:
Meta4 wrote:Let's make this interesting. RaveBomb.

Are you doing this because you disagree with Admetus or for some other reason?

Personally, I'm not 100% on Rave being human, nonetheless I think it's pretty likely given that necklessone was.

Did you mean "disagree with DOM?" I've said RaveBomb looks a bit human-ish by the vote trains, but I haven't said it as strongly as DOM has.

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Re: Day 9

Postby Admetus » 04 Sep 2014, 12:39:28

Oh, this is the current vote tally, with Admetus and Visigoth outstanding.

Meta4 - 2 - Mister E. Meat, RaveBomb
RaveBomb - 2 - Blindsniper83, Meta4
Blindsniper83 - DastardlyOldMan

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Re: Day 9

Postby Visigoth » 04 Sep 2014, 14:16:01

Don't quite see the Meta4 angle. He seems a lot more random and revenge-votey plus the Day 3 & 6 votes with Elvera just feel off. And the odd starting vote on Day 7 seems unusual for a wolf. Though if he is a wolf them knowing that Blindsniper83 loves to vote on RaveBomb could give them an angle to somewhat easily get him voted out. They could both be the wolves so them both voting together wouldn't be that odd due to Blindsniper83's pattern of voting on RaveBomb. Then again it seems like about everyone has something which makes them look human if viewed one way and wolfy the other. I liked Admetus yesterday but now with the reveals of 7-Zark-7 as human it does make the Day 2 vote of Admetus interesting. If he was a wolf why would he put a spotlight on himself by being the last unknown on the lynch leader that day, it makes no sense. But then again it might be the perfect cover since why would a wolf do something like that in hanging his vote out there are the last unknown. The whole Day 4 thing with RaveBomb plays into that same thing as well. A risky and crazy strategy for a wolf to take so likely not a wolf, but then would be a great move for a wolf to make. But you put FurinMirado and RaveBomb together and evil chaos is bound to pour out. Think I'm going to stick with my first instinct about RaveBomb and consider him more on the human side.

I think I'm going to stick with Admetus again. If I weighed the human/wolf things it is kinda close to even, but the things from yesterday tip it a bit over for me. And that's more than RaveBomb and even Meta4 or Blindsniper83 at this time. Tempted to go with RaveBomb just to see which side he is on though no matter the side I don't think that really does anything to clarify Blindsniper83 at all. Could flip it and put Blindsniper83 into the tie with everyone and let the chips fall where they may, but not a fan of that in the late game. Plus I think the same holds true in that whatever side Blindsniper83 turns doesn't really help with determining RaveBomb's side.

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Re: Day 9

Postby Admetus » 04 Sep 2014, 17:18:07

I've been doing a full reread of the game, and running some voting reality checks. Being wrong about CAD really shakes my confidence in my reads. I was pretty confident about him.

We may not technically be in lynch or lose, but if we had a WoG, it would be. This is the end game, so it does make me a little worried to see the votes still spreading out. It's okay as long as people are going to check in later to see if they need to move their votes, but really not okay if anyone's voting and checking out for the day. Last game was a really solid example of what happens: Every human was voting for a wolf, but since the votes were spread out, the wolves just simply blocked up and won.

Every day so far, I've been pretty confident I won't get mauled, because I've been such a suspicious human. But just in case we miss and I'm not around, let me dump a bit.

Blindsniper83 - End game, bucko. If you're confident RaveBomb is really a wolf, best get convincing.

DOM - Somewhat confident he's a human. Looking back through the vote history, I would be astounded if wolf-DOM didn't lay some cover votes on wolves. With the exception of Day 7 on unknown-Meta4, every vote has been for a confirmed human. Also it may be affecting my judgement, but I usually agree with what I've read from him. Doesn't seem to have lead us to any wolf kills, sadly. Interestingly, he's voted for a lot of singletons while simultaneously criticizing singleton voters (5 out of 9!).

Meta4 - I wrote above that the two votes with Elvera were a hangup for me. But in both of those cases, he voted first. So it's really on Elvera whether or not she would have voted behind another wolf, and that's much less straightforward. Like I said before, apart from that, he's a pretty reasonable hidden-wolf candidate.

Mister E. Meat - When rereading the old threads, I've been convinced that he's completely human, and convinced that he's completely a wolf. Times like the one where he asked "can someone look at the voting" today, and I open up the votes to find that there's a giant target painted on me in the Day 2 results -- that sets off my wolf alarms. But while I know other people (Visigoth) will absolutely turn on a fellow wolf if it's in character, MEM's never struck me as the kind that would actively hunt down two of his allies, Furin and Elvera. So for today I'm going to assume he's a human.

RaveBomb - He could actually be a wolf. It's possible. But I think in that case I would have expected Furin to have placed his final Day 4 vote on RaveBomb instead of necklessone. Splitting the team to get half of them human cred is much more reasonable than setting up the long con twisted plan we ended up with if Rave were a wolf. But outside of that one day, there's not a ton preventing me from believing he's a valid suspect.

Visigoth - I would actually vote on Visigoth if he were an option today. I know he's been involved in both the wolf kills so far, but I've been on his team as a wolf before, and I can tell you it's entirely consistent with his wolf method. The second push for a wolf, against Elvera, also came at a time when he had an early vote lead. His vote there could have started out as an attempt to poison the results reveal if he was lynched, and it just ended up carrying off to a human cred exercise after that. Also, I've felt like a few of his rambling posts were more fluff than substance this time around. It doesn't hurt that he's ended up voting for me a few of those times, and I'm quite sure I'm a human.


I do agree with Visigoth on one thing - I don't want to let the lynch get decided as a coin flip at this point. Between the options, even including Blindsniper, I think Meta4 has the most promise as a wolf suspect.

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Re: Day 9

Postby Admetus » 04 Sep 2014, 17:19:15

Current vote tally:

Meta4 - 3 - Mister E. Meat, RaveBomb, Admetus
RaveBomb - 2 - Blindsniper83, Meta4
Blindsniper83 - DastardlyOldMan
Admetus - Visigoth

I'll be around in case votes need to change.

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Re: Day 9

Postby Ryvvn » 04 Sep 2014, 19:00:59

real soon


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