Night 6

[Ryvvn]

Ahh, back to humans killing humans.

[Visigoth]

Elvera, might end up throwing you to the wolves, so to speak. Not entirely sure yet since I still need to go through and do my review, but I have been coming to your name a couple of times in the past plus your vote is that last unknown on Day 1 of the two vote leaders. Which is something that would also catch my eye like it did with 7-Zark-7.

Also looking back now I should have cautioned you against the stigmata vote. I wasn't tracking the votes so didn't realize that your vote would put him ahead. If it would have just been his second you would have been OK, but when someone pushes a person ahead of the group it can be read as trying to save one of the others in that group. Now we know of a number of those have turned out to be humans so might not play as big, but still gets some play. In a twist if you are revealed as a wolf others might end up going back and looking at that vote and seeing who you might have been trying to save with it which could end up with them lynching a human.

[Visigoth]

For the maul how does: Jokerfish -> Mister E. Meat sound?

Thinking Jokerfish since I doubt we'd be able to get him lynched. A number of random votes (like many others) but nothing that really feels like a hook to get him lynched. About the best would be his Day 4 list of wolves which included someone we'd lynched on Day 1 so a little hard for them to be a wolf. Mister E. Meat is a bit of a random pick. Again, not sure the angle would be to get him lynched so might be good to just maul him. If we're really lucky people might for some reason think Clearasday is a wolf and wanted a thorn in his side gone. Would be terrible logic since that would be rather obvious which is why it would work (see Mortus mauling Omega) which is why it wouldn't which is why it would... Hey, where'd this rabbit hole come from?

[Elvera]

I guess the stigmata vote was an unfortunate mishap. I wasn't thinking about how the bandwagons and saving others look when voting. I know playing the new card is getting old but I truly am having a hard time following why people make certain votes. Ah well.

What about jokerfish -> Blindsniper83 I feel like both of those players are more quiet while Mister E. Meat seems a bit more vocal and would be noticed more. I mean, either way the maul is noticed but since neither of those players seem to have gotten many lynch votes I would go that way.

[Visigoth]

I guess the stigmata vote was an unfortunate mishap. I wasn't thinking about how the bandwagons and saving others look when voting. I know playing the new card is getting old but I truly am having a hard time following why people make certain votes. Ah well.

And that is where the analysis and investigation comes in. Now if the person making the vote writes in a reason why it can help see what they were thinking. Perhaps they think they saw that person voting in a manner that might indicate they are trying to protect someone. Maybe they think it's a wolf jumping in near/at the end of a bandwagon on fellow wolf to try and buy human cred. Or the person is being so under the radar (not getting votes, not being vocal, etc.) that they're a wolf playing the long game. Maybe a random vote is in fact a totally random yet they try to assign logic to it in order to frame their argument. Maybe they see that person acting differently than in past games, which is obviously tougher for a new player to spot, and even then it's no guarantee since some people might intentionally act differently to throw off people looking for those types of tells. Then again they could also be a wolf attempting to influence other players leading them to lynch a fellow human.

Many do vote analysis which is where all those charts come from. By looking at how the voting results, timing and which side the players end up on can help find wolves. Basically what happened with your Day 1 vote. Your name is the only one that is unknown of the two vote leaders so more often than not that person is a wolf. Not always but not uncommon. Another is that wolves will try to not bunch up votes on one person. Then again that too is not always true and in one game nearly every wolf was voting on the same person one day. Really for every "rule" of how wolves act there's at least one example of them acting the completely opposite way. This is where the whole rabbit hole thing come in since players trying to find a "rule" violation start going in circles with "I know that they know that I know that they know..." circles.

I'd also say that being a wolf for your very first game is a bit of a tough place to be. You're not only in the position of trying to figure out the game but also have to deal with lying and making up arguments in order to justify your votes on people you know cannot be wolves. Hopefully you'll get to be a regular human in the next game and might be able to get a better feel for how/why people vote the way they do. It does change the game and sometimes how you play when you know who are the good guys and who are the bad guys (which change depending on which side you are on of course ) since you need to fake not having perfect knowledge when having it.

[DastardlyOldMan]

In a bind here - votes are currently:

necklessone - 4 - Meta4, MEM, Jokerfish, Elvera
Elvera - 3 - 7Z7, Visigoth, San
Meta4 - 3 - necklessone, penalty1, penalty2
Visigoth - 2- Clearasday, RaveBomb
CAD - 1 - MEM
RaveBomb - 1- blindsniper

necklessone can move his vote to ~save himself, and that double-penalty vote was probably a trap ploy to start with. Just worried it's going to come down on one of you guys. Sticking with CAD for now, I think. Visigoth, if you get another vote, you might switch off of Elvera "for self-defense".

[DastardlyOldMan]

I'm good with JF as our primary maul - not sure about MEM as backup, since he's been backing me on CAD regularly.

[Visigoth]

Well, unless things go really crazy doubt the alternate will be an issue. Really the only reason I kind of like Mister E. Meat as a possible maul is to create the scenario like in the pirate game. Not sure how many people playing were in that one, but could certainly reference it to try and paint a picture of Clearasday pushing for his maul just like in that game as a way to try and be the victim and not the wolf.