Dead Chat

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Snake » 03 Sep 2014, 01:29:12

CAD voted for DOM yesterday?

He's becoming a real thorn in their side. I wonder if their plan to help MEM lynch him will work in the long run.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby San » 03 Sep 2014, 04:01:19

Thank you for the game
even if you're all wolves!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Snake » 03 Sep 2014, 05:29:52

DOM wrote:FYI - I'd watch just a little bit - you've almost got a perfect voting record right now. I'd toss out a ~wrong vote or two as well, jump on a human bandwagon for a spot or two, before you take me out (if needed).


This is so risky.
Potentially join bandwagons on CAD then MEM before offing DOM? It could work but it's so risky. By the time this all went off there would be 5 people left and 2 wolves. Sure, the style points for the lone wolf victory are much higher but is it necessary?

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby dferrantino » 03 Sep 2014, 07:54:59

Snake wrote:
DOM wrote:FYI - I'd watch just a little bit - you've almost got a perfect voting record right now. I'd toss out a ~wrong vote or two as well, jump on a human bandwagon for a spot or two, before you take me out (if needed).


This is so risky.
Potentially join bandwagons on CAD then MEM before offing DOM? It could work but it's so risky. By the time this all went off there would be 5 people left and 2 wolves. Sure, the style points for the lone wolf victory are much higher but is it necessary?

Combination of DOM being over-cautious and Visigoth being extraordinarily well-positioned to pull off a lone wolf victory. Also consider that in general DOM's one of the players here that can single-handedly turn the game around for the humans so keeping him alive into the late game is suicide for the wolves, and that there are a handful of people who've already picked up on that. I don't think DOM's lasting the 3 days he needs to pick up the win, and he doesn't think so either.

This should end up being a pretty intense next few days.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Elvera » 03 Sep 2014, 08:19:45

Well hai ^.^ Thanks for the game, it was fun! Going to have to spend more time analyzing votes next time but I think I did *ok* overall..

The rest of the game should be interesting!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 03 Sep 2014, 08:31:11

Wow, that human-led CAD-valanche is impressive. It's almost as if they don't trust him or something. ;)
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Omega » 03 Sep 2014, 09:43:54

I can't believe anyone has CAD pegged as a wolf today.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Aldax » 03 Sep 2014, 09:57:36

dferrantino wrote:
Snake wrote:
DOM wrote:FYI - I'd watch just a little bit - you've almost got a perfect voting record right now. I'd toss out a ~wrong vote or two as well, jump on a human bandwagon for a spot or two, before you take me out (if needed).


This is so risky.
Potentially join bandwagons on CAD then MEM before offing DOM? It could work but it's so risky. By the time this all went off there would be 5 people left and 2 wolves. Sure, the style points for the lone wolf victory are much higher but is it necessary?

Combination of DOM being over-cautious and Visigoth being extraordinarily well-positioned to pull off a lone wolf victory. Also consider that in general DOM's one of the players here that can single-handedly turn the game around for the humans so keeping him alive into the late game is suicide for the wolves, and that there are a handful of people who've already picked up on that. I don't think DOM's lasting the 3 days he needs to pick up the win, and he doesn't think so either.

This should end up being a pretty intense next few days.


Yeah, it seems like things are about to get really interesting, I'm rooting for the human team, but Visi making a lone wolf victory sounds way more awesome
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 03 Sep 2014, 13:22:59

Aldax wrote:Yeah, it seems like things are about to get really interesting, I'm rooting for the human team, but Visi making a lone wolf victory sounds way more awesome

Not to me, and probably not to him later on if this actually happens again.

Think about it. If he wins a second consecutive lone wolf victory, he will ALWAYS be lynched in midgame no matter how human he seems to be. He can never make it anywhere near the finals ever again.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 03 Sep 2014, 13:40:17

Hellheart wrote:Not to me, and probably not to him later on if this actually happens again.

Think about it. If he wins a second consecutive lone wolf victory, he will ALWAYS be lynched in midgame no matter how human he seems to be. He can never make it anywhere near the finals ever again.


Eh. That might happen, but I think it should only take a game or two of the wolves actively exploiting that reflex before it settles back down. Those types of behavior patterns are *really* powerful tools for the wolves when the victim's a human and only moderately a hindrance when the victim's a wolf (since they can plan for the eventual death from the beginning).
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 03 Sep 2014, 13:50:58

If everybody who can be reasonably expected to survive until the endgame reads him as human when he's a wolf, then he can't be allowed to survive to endgame.

I can warn people all day and hope they listen, but I'd rather just outright lynch him if they'll never read my warnings, totally ignore them, or outright forget about them.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 03 Sep 2014, 19:23:40

Welcome, Clearasday and 7-zark-7.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Clearasday » 03 Sep 2014, 21:51:48

Visigoth would have burned in the fires of my distrust had I been allowed to survive. Which I doubted would happen as i'm not exactly at the top of people's trust lists for some odd reason :twisted: . Anyway, good game guys, i enjoyed pleading for my life.

I've been scared of MEM for a while as he successfully pegged and railroaded the humans into lynching me one game a while back when I was a wolf. But after this I think I am content to say that he can no longer see right through me like i feared for a while that he could. I hope he wins it for the humans.
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 04 Sep 2014, 17:02:33

I think Visigoth voting off-wagon on Admetus here again is a mistake that may come back to haunt him. Just think it's more human here for him to take a stand on one of the leaders.

Still, I think it draws less attention than voting Blindsniper into a 3-way tie.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 04 Sep 2014, 17:12:24

Subject: Night 9 wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:((Full disclosure: Visigoth's at my house now - we're just going to talk this over in private, and I'll summarize here.))

:o COLLUSION!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 04 Sep 2014, 17:33:07

Admetus wrote:Visigoth - I would actually vote on Visigoth if he were an option today. I know he's been involved in both the wolf kills so far, but I've been on his team as a wolf before, and I can tell you it's entirely consistent with his wolf method.

Figured he would catch onto this. Well-argued as well, and at this point I don't think they can really maul him unless the humans get DOM tomorrow.

DOM - Somewhat confident he's a human. Looking back through the vote history, I would be astounded if wolf-DOM didn't lay some cover votes on wolves. With the exception of Day 7 on unknown-Meta4, every vote has been for a confirmed human.

A living DOM this late is almost certainly going to be a wolf. If he's alive tomorrow for must-lynch, you can be almost certain he's a wolf. If he's not a wolf, he will find one and make a nearly airtight wolf case at must-lynch.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 04 Sep 2014, 18:57:40

Does anyone else sometimes have discrepancies between the board clock and their PC clock? I thought it happened once before in a game to me where I "missed" sniping by like 7 seconds or something. Then MEM said something about me locking one of these day boards early, which I thought might have just been him missing by seconds. Then I slightly perceived a small discrepancy on a more recent day lock, but the thread was already locked so I couldn't do anything about it. Now it's very pronounced, like 30 seconds difference!

I've been consistently locking by the board's clock, not my PC clock; do any Overlords know if the board clock is synced among players?

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 04 Sep 2014, 19:07:16

Welcome, Meta4 and Mister E. Meat!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 04 Sep 2014, 19:26:12

Man, if only there was some way to, like, summarize everything notable that happened in prior days in a condensed format. And it could link to the posts it referenced. And then you could, if you wanted, add additional categories that have the votes/reads by each living player, so you could look for discrepancies or slip-ups.

...Nah, that's just a pipe dream. The humans are so beyond doomed.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Mister E. Meat » 04 Sep 2014, 19:36:22

Glad I died but I think we're going to lose anyhow. DOM I never saw and I was sure that one of Admetus/Visigoth was a wolf but I was pretty sure it was Admetus. Hopefully the other guys do better!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 04 Sep 2014, 20:15:51

Hrmm, perhaps I should have allowed vote locking for today? Not going to try to introduce it now, but I'll obviously allow it for tomorrow should the humans find their way out of this mistake within the next 22hrs (and change).

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Mister E. Meat » 04 Sep 2014, 20:41:36

dferrantino wrote:
Snake wrote:
DOM wrote:FYI - I'd watch just a little bit - you've almost got a perfect voting record right now. I'd toss out a ~wrong vote or two as well, jump on a human bandwagon for a spot or two, before you take me out (if needed).


This is so risky.
Potentially join bandwagons on CAD then MEM before offing DOM? It could work but it's so risky. By the time this all went off there would be 5 people left and 2 wolves. Sure, the style points for the lone wolf victory are much higher but is it necessary?

Combination of DOM being over-cautious and Visigoth being extraordinarily well-positioned to pull off a lone wolf victory. Also consider that in general DOM's one of the players here that can single-handedly turn the game around for the humans so keeping him alive into the late game is suicide for the wolves, and that there are a handful of people who've already picked up on that. I don't think DOM's lasting the 3 days he needs to pick up the win, and he doesn't think so either.

This should end up being a pretty intense next few days.

Yeah, I should have picked up on the DOM thing. He was playing strangely (but so was CAD). Even so, it should have been ringing alarm bells for me that he was still here so late in the game.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Omega » 04 Sep 2014, 21:12:50

Ryvvn wrote:Does anyone else sometimes have discrepancies between the board clock and their PC clock? I thought it happened once before in a game to me where I "missed" sniping by like 7 seconds or something. Then MEM said something about me locking one of these day boards early, which I thought might have just been him missing by seconds. Then I slightly perceived a small discrepancy on a more recent day lock, but the thread was already locked so I couldn't do anything about it. Now it's very pronounced, like 30 seconds difference!

I've been consistently locking by the board's clock, not my PC clock; do any Overlords know if the board clock is synced among players?


I have never noticed this... But now I'll watch for it.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 04 Sep 2014, 21:20:25

Ryvvn wrote:Poor Okaros would be rolling in his grave... ya know, if we hadn't thrown his mangled corpse in a ditch and all... HE'S ROLLING IN HIS DITCH BECAUSE OF YOU! :evil:


:lol:

Technically true! I'm rolling in that ditch laughing at the insanity going on at the start of what is probably the last day for the humans. :D

( Not that I would likely be doing any better as a human in this situation, just that it's hilarious that all three humans have immediately voted against each other )
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby jokerfish » 04 Sep 2014, 22:27:24

The sheer magnitude of how clueless and f---ed the humans are bears testimony to the quality of DOM and Visi's wolf game.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 04 Sep 2014, 22:29:59

jokerfish wrote:The sheer magnitude of how clueless and f---ed the humans are bears testimony to the quality of DOM and Visi's wolf game.

DOM made one slip that i know of - although it's kind of a subjective one - that I only caught when I was making the Goldfish-B-GON summary after EOD. His biggest strength lies in maul choice and helping other wolves with strategy.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Clearasday » 05 Sep 2014, 00:31:59

Reading DOMs post today knowing full well he is a wolf I still feel like he smells human. There's something too disarming about it. Note to self, don't let them disarm you.

Now lets see if Admetus actually ends up lynching rave over any of the other 'should not be allowed to survive until endgame' candidates.
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Snake » 05 Sep 2014, 01:18:59

Game is at lylo and there's not a single vote cast on the wolves before they've even voted

:lol:

What a state of affairs.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 05 Sep 2014, 04:39:46

Clearasday wrote:Reading DOMs post today knowing full well he is a wolf I still feel like he smells human. There's something too disarming about it. Note to self, don't let them disarm you.

Now lets see if Admetus actually ends up lynching rave over any of the other 'should not be allowed to survive until endgame' candidates.

Ehhh...I get very suspicious of any "analysis" post that effectively summarizes previous events in long-form with commentary. It's just way too easy to do as a wolf. It's basically what you have to do as a wolf, because you don't really know what you would see or how you would feel about it as a human. That said, a human that hasn't had much time before could end up doing the same thing...but I'd expect something better the following day.

With somebody as guarded as DOM, you have to look for uncharacteristic behavior in earlier posts. He'll be way too careful with his posts this late to make a mistake.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Snake » 05 Sep 2014, 04:43:28

I feel exactly the same way with large scale analysis. Regardless of content it makes me suspicious. The very fact that it gets drawn up at all, to me implies the need to explain something. If you vote and someone calls you out on it, feel free to dredge up as much as you want. Unsolicited essays get one eyebrow mildly raised, though.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby sphenodont » 05 Sep 2014, 05:49:27

Ryvvn wrote:I've been consistently locking by the board's clock, not my PC clock; do any Overlords know if the board clock is synced among players?


I just tested it. Two different accounts, two different computers, two different networks, clocks in sync.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 05 Sep 2014, 06:42:56

Is there a better way to present this? I just worked out all of the kinks of the VBA function to automatically do this...I think.

...Well, still have to get retractions to factor in correctly. But OTHER THAN THAT...

Timestamps are standardized so that 00:01 is a minute after the previous EOD and 23:59 is a minute before the current EOD.

[+] Day 5
[00:01] Penalty for Blindsniper ( 1 )
[07:59] CAD for MEM ( 1 )
[11:34] DOM for CAD ( 1 )
[12:15] MEM for CAD ( 2 )
[12:50] Elvera for San ( 1 )
[19:54] Admetus for Rictus ( 1 )
[20:16] Visigoth for Rictus ( 2 )
[20:47] Blindsniper for Ravebomb ( 1 )
[21:03] Rictus for Ravebomb ( 2 )
[21:16] jokerfish for Ravebomb ( 3 )
[22:25] CAD for Rictus ( 3 )
[22:26] necklessone for CAD ( 3 )
[22:28] Zark for necklessone ( 1 )
[22:29] necklessone for Rictus ( 4 )
[23:07] Ravebomb for CAD ( 4 )
[23:43] Rictus for CAD ( 5 )
[23:56] Hellheart for Rictus ( 5 )
Last edited by Hellheart on 05 Sep 2014, 06:46:18, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2014, 06:45:54

Hellheart wrote:Is there a better way to present this? I just worked out all of the kinks of the VBA function to automatically do this...I think.

Timestamps are standardized so that 00:01 is a minute after the previous EOD and 23:59 is a minute before the current EOD.

[+] Day 5
[00:01] Penalty for Blindsniper ( 1 )
[07:59] CAD for MEM ( 1 )
[11:34] DOM for CAD ( 1 )
[12:15] MEM for CAD ( 2 )
[12:50] Elvera for San ( 1 )
[19:54] Admetus for Rictus ( 1 )
[20:16] Visigoth for Rictus ( 2 )
[20:47] Blindsniper for Ravebomb ( 1 )
[21:03] Rictus for Ravebomb ( 2 )
[21:16] jokerfish for Ravebomb ( 3 )
[22:25] CAD for Rictus ( 3 )
[22:26] necklessone for CAD ( 3 )
[22:28] Zark for necklessone ( 1 )
[22:29] necklessone for Rictus ( 4 )
[23:07] Ravebomb for CAD ( 4 )
[23:43] Rictus for CAD ( 5 )
[23:56] Hellheart for Rictus ( 5 )

No, I think that's pretty good. Can you account for retractions?

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 05 Sep 2014, 06:50:03

I have trouble keeping my auto-retraction function from occasionally glitching out with #Value across the entire column, even though I'm now starting that function using With Sheet(Application.Caller.Worksheet.Name)

Recalculated that column and it fixed. Maybe I should just stuff a recalculation in right before the timestamp code.

[+] Day 5
[00:01] Penalty for Blindsniper ( 1 )
[07:59] CAD for MEM ( 1 )
[11:34] DOM for CAD ( 1 )
[12:15] MEM for CAD ( 2 )
[12:50] Elvera for San ( 1 )
[19:54] Admetus for Rictus ( 1 )
[20:16] Visigoth for Rictus ( 2 )
[20:47] Blindsniper for Ravebomb ( 1 )
[21:03] Rictus for Ravebomb ( 2 )
[21:16] jokerfish for Ravebomb ( 3 )
[22:25] CAD for Rictus ( 3 )
[22:26] necklessone for CAD ( 3 )
[22:28] Zark for necklessone ( 1 )
[22:29] necklessone for Rictus ( 4 )
[23:07] Ravebomb for CAD ( 3 )
[23:43] Rictus for CAD ( 4 )
[23:56] Hellheart for Rictus ( 5 )

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Snake » 05 Sep 2014, 08:33:53

Ravebomb wrote:For someone that usually is killed off about day 5, getting to day 10 is a novel experience.


Ain't that the truth.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 05 Sep 2014, 10:14:44

DastardlyOldMan wrote:So, I was originally going to post that kind of stuff to the day thread (hear ye, oh helpful wolf), but Damn! is it damning. I fully expect the quick reactive burst that pushed the initial votes to settle down in another ~7 hours or so, though. But even if Admetus and RaveBomb start cooperating, blindsniper's likely to be the enabler that lets Visigoth and I just pile on RaveBomb to our heart's content, if necessary.

And this is why he pretty much tips his hand when he's a wolf this late. He is SO GOOD at finding wolves here that when he fails to solve the game on very late-game must-lynch, he has to be a wolf. Because rest assured, he has solved it. He just can't tell you because he's one of the wolves.

I feel slightly better about killing Rictus because DOM would never let him live this long after he pegged the two of us as wolves last time.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 05 Sep 2014, 12:17:20

sphenodont wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:I've been consistently locking by the board's clock, not my PC clock; do any Overlords know if the board clock is synced among players?

I just tested it. Two different accounts, two different computers, two different networks, clocks in sync.

Well that makes me feel better, and now I definitely know to watch the board clock for future snipe attempts.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 05 Sep 2014, 12:27:16

Uh oh. DOM's stalling might backfire horribly here...
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2014, 12:58:49

Hellheart wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:So, I was originally going to post that kind of stuff to the day thread (hear ye, oh helpful wolf), but Damn! is it damning. I fully expect the quick reactive burst that pushed the initial votes to settle down in another ~7 hours or so, though. But even if Admetus and RaveBomb start cooperating, blindsniper's likely to be the enabler that lets Visigoth and I just pile on RaveBomb to our heart's content, if necessary.

And this is why he pretty much tips his hand when he's a wolf this late. He is SO GOOD at finding wolves here that when he fails to solve the game on very late-game must-lynch, he has to be a wolf. Because rest assured, he has solved it. He just can't tell you because he's one of the wolves.

I feel slightly better about killing Rictus because DOM would never let him live this long after he pegged the two of us as wolves last time.


That's not a sure thing. Actually, and he himself has admitted it, DOM has a tendency to second guess himself in the late game. He makes accurate deductions but then turns back on them at times. He has lived to the late game various times and there's always a bit of doubt, probably due to the pressure. Because of this, wolves have manipulated this self doubt for their purposes.

So I don't think of "DOM alive on late game is wolf" as a law. What I think though, is that a human DOM in the late game is one of the players that will always feel more human than most players. It's hard to lynch him when he's human.

What I consider a weakness of his wolf game is that his language is more emotional. As a human he sounds colder, more logical. He doesn't rely on gut feelings in the way he expressed them this game. It's not a super wolf tell, but a subtle one.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 05 Sep 2014, 13:28:30

rekard wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:So, I was originally going to post that kind of stuff to the day thread (hear ye, oh helpful wolf), but Damn! is it damning. I fully expect the quick reactive burst that pushed the initial votes to settle down in another ~7 hours or so, though. But even if Admetus and RaveBomb start cooperating, blindsniper's likely to be the enabler that lets Visigoth and I just pile on RaveBomb to our heart's content, if necessary.

And this is why he pretty much tips his hand when he's a wolf this late. He is SO GOOD at finding wolves here that when he fails to solve the game on very late-game must-lynch, he has to be a wolf. Because rest assured, he has solved it. He just can't tell you because he's one of the wolves.

I feel slightly better about killing Rictus because DOM would never let him live this long after he pegged the two of us as wolves last time.


That's not a sure thing. Actually, and he himself has admitted it, DOM has a tendency to second guess himself in the late game. He makes accurate deductions but then turns back on them at times. He has lived to the late game various times and there's always a bit of doubt, probably due to the pressure. Because of this, wolves have manipulated this self doubt for their purposes.

But human-DOM's late-game deductions are statistically way more likely to be accurate than anyone else's, save possibly you and Rictus with 7 or less people. It doesn't matter if he doubts his own deductions as long as he presents them. What's scary to the wolves depending on player makeup is that everyone else could take what he posts and run with it. If he'll nail a wolf even 5 times out of 10, that's not something most wolves will screw around with.

This is particularly true when you have a group of humans that will happily sheep DOM, which gives the wolves absolutely no control over the lynch and no chance at all to split the votes.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Omega » 05 Sep 2014, 13:47:10

For a pony bomb, one post was kind of disappointing...

You can do better RaveBomb.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 05 Sep 2014, 13:58:16

In RaveBomb's defense, he's busy trying to get an actual wolf lynched. :shock:

But that was definitely more of a pony "dud" than a bomb.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 05 Sep 2014, 15:01:44

Man, Ravebomb sounds angry.

He's probably not. But he's actually trying for once in...

...uh...you know, the last time he actually tried to play the game for real...

and nobody's listening to him. Although it's mainly because Admetus knows that Blindsniper isn't moving and DOM happens to be a wolf :(

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby 7-zark-7 » 05 Sep 2014, 15:23:33

Ryvvn wrote:Welcome, Clearasday and 7-zark-7.


Thanks for the game Ryvvn. I admit, I had difficulty coming up with RP without a theme, so I fell back on my old standby multi-colored family drama. We will meet Sven's Dad at some point in the future (at which point, we'll need a third color - my apologies to Dferr)...

I should probably apologize for killing Dferr. I wish I had chosen Visigoth, but I had RP reasons. I find it ironic I mentioned DOM in the same post (playing off the dirty/dastardly old man RP).

I dislike that I'm not more participatory in the dead thread. To be honest, I have trouble making time for the game, & usually "Get back to work" when the hammer falls.

Subject: Day 10

Admetus wrote:If DOM moves to Visigoth, sure. I trust DOM most out of the people that aren't me right now. But I do think it's plausible that you're a wolf, RaveBomb, so I don't mind if we end up on you.


Sigh... this is why we can't have nice things.

More (or less) in a bit,

7z7
"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2014, 15:31:58

Hellheart wrote:
rekard wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:So, I was originally going to post that kind of stuff to the day thread (hear ye, oh helpful wolf), but Damn! is it damning. I fully expect the quick reactive burst that pushed the initial votes to settle down in another ~7 hours or so, though. But even if Admetus and RaveBomb start cooperating, blindsniper's likely to be the enabler that lets Visigoth and I just pile on RaveBomb to our heart's content, if necessary.

And this is why he pretty much tips his hand when he's a wolf this late. He is SO GOOD at finding wolves here that when he fails to solve the game on very late-game must-lynch, he has to be a wolf. Because rest assured, he has solved it. He just can't tell you because he's one of the wolves.

I feel slightly better about killing Rictus because DOM would never let him live this long after he pegged the two of us as wolves last time.


That's not a sure thing. Actually, and he himself has admitted it, DOM has a tendency to second guess himself in the late game. He makes accurate deductions but then turns back on them at times. He has lived to the late game various times and there's always a bit of doubt, probably due to the pressure. Because of this, wolves have manipulated this self doubt for their purposes.

But human-DOM's late-game deductions are statistically way more likely to be accurate than anyone else's, save possibly you and Rictus with 7 or less people. It doesn't matter if he doubts his own deductions as long as he presents them. What's scary to the wolves depending on player makeup is that everyone else could take what he posts and run with it. If he'll nail a wolf even 5 times out of 10, that's not something most wolves will screw around with.

This is particularly true when you have a group of humans that will happily sheep DOM, which gives the wolves absolutely no control over the lynch and no chance at all to split the votes.


But that's the thing. I have seen DOM presenting a good argument before and a wolf nudges him to the other direction. And self doubt matters because saying it right first loses relevance if you change your opinion later. That's when things crumble down with anyone regardless of past performance.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Clearasday » 05 Sep 2014, 16:21:51

Has Admetushad any correct hunches this game? And this is why I've always said we need a mix of both vote interpretation and gut feelings on posts. Vote reading only gets you so far and as rave and I have both said this game, bad plays does not a wolf make.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Snake » 05 Sep 2014, 16:23:04

Clearasday wrote:Has Admetushad any correct hunches this game? And this is why I've always said we need a mix of both vote interpretation and gut feelings on posts. Vote reading only gets you so far and as rave and I have both said this game, bad plays does not a wolf make.


It's usually indicative of the opposite.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2014, 17:00:59

Yeah. I think maybe as a rule of thumb one wolf will be the one who will know a wolf defender pattern.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 05 Sep 2014, 18:41:53

Rave, if you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault. You even got Blindsniper talking at the end. I'm honestly super impressed at your taking a stand here.

Would've liked to see Admetus help you out more. Maybe the two of you could've gotten him to change his vote already.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 05 Sep 2014, 19:02:17

If any previous GMs would like to quickly explain the procedure for setting the game threads open to all, while I write up the end game post, that'd be swell :D


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