Dead Chat

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 29 Aug 2014, 19:36:14

Welcome, Rictus and Hellheart,

Holy Hell(heart) on that read dump, Hellheart!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 29 Aug 2014, 19:39:12

Without looking:

I totes think Ravebomb is a wolf. I could see a Necklessone-Ravebomb-Rictus wolf team if they were super obvious on Day 1.

I could see a Zark-Admetus wolf team, if the two of them decided they always get lynched early anyway so why not.

CAD and DOM could both be wolves. I don't know CAD well, but he's been internally consistent and DOM tried to pretend he wasn't, so I'm edging towards DOM being a more likely wolf.

---

I basically just left it to everyone else because I didn't have enough confidence to push for anyone in any case. I also have a history of being wrong immediately after I'm right.

Sorry if I went overboard with poking at you on Days 2 and 3, Ryvvn. It was truly all in jest, and it was a lot of fun.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 29 Aug 2014, 19:42:29

Wow @ Visigoth being a wolf. Glad I saved CAD, all things considered. I would've eventually re-evaluated on Visigoth and fuck Lone Wolf Visigoth, seriously. That warning was edited in there for a REASON.

Sorry for killing you off, Rictus. You were just too quiet for too long, and then you were on the phone so you couldn't get pushy under pressure. Probably more of an available-time issue than anything else.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 29 Aug 2014, 19:43:11

To clarify:
Subject: Day 5 wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I'm an ungodly likely maul target at the moment. I'll be happy to keep on living, but I can't assume that.
Be careful about Visigoth. Never forget Lone Wolf Visigoth.

Holy hell on this part very specifically.

Though also on mentioning all 3 remaining wolves in it, even if your reads are all over the place. Like praising Rictus then condemning him to death :lol:

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 29 Aug 2014, 19:45:15

Hellheart wrote:Sorry if I went overboard with poking at you on Days 2 and 3, Ryvvn. It was truly all in jest, and it was a lot of fun.

Nah, you had me laughing, didn't want to keep poking back for fear of turning attention on the antics instead of the game.


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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 29 Aug 2014, 21:04:45

Ryvvn wrote:To clarify:
Subject: Day 5 wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I'm an ungodly likely maul target at the moment. I'll be happy to keep on living, but I can't assume that.
Be careful about Visigoth. Never forget Lone Wolf Visigoth.

Holy hell on this part very specifically.

Though also on mentioning all 3 remaining wolves in it, even if your reads are all over the place. Like praising Rictus then condemning him to death :lol:

The funniest thing about that: it was actually edited in. I almost missed it. I caught it doing the Goldfish-B-GON post and looked at his first unreadable-paragraph post. Totally reminded me of that game. That and the color tallies are going to be a permanent part of my game, because they're useful and I focus very hard on internal consistency in my own twisted fashion.

Really glad I made that edit. Also the DOM mention, which people really need to keep in mind. And I'm really happy that I correctly read Necklessone.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Rictus » 29 Aug 2014, 21:49:43

Well, without looking at the forums I thought:

A) Hellheart, super wolfy for saying "I'm going to die tonight, here's my last chance to info dump." He specifically mentions me and then 2 mins later casts the deciding vote to kill me. It looked like the info dump was written early, and then passed around the wolf forum for opinions. Plus he killed the only one I was sure was human (me).

B) necklessone for reasons I posted in the day thread. I think he's trying to run interference for the sleeper wolf.

C) Elvrya, but I was taking this from other peoples reads.

D) CAD, more of a gut feeling.

Obviously I was dead wrong on Hellheart since we both ended up here tonight. :). Wonder if I found any other or if I'm 0/4.
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 29 Aug 2014, 22:25:53

Everyone's always dead wrong on me when I'm like this. People just think I'm wolfy because of the way I play, but I'm not going to make any excuses for it. It's the way I play, and that's all there is to it. I start out voting for Stigmata because it's safe, sure, but that says nothing about my affiliation. I'm only "helpful wolf" because I try to be helpful human as well. I'm sure I have wolf tells, but what people think are wolf tells end up being human tells every friggin' time.

CAD seemed less wolfy than you did, especially when looking at the votes. That's really all there was to it. Well, that and not deciding the lynch makes me seem way more wolfy. A player that gun-shy is trying a little too hard to avoid negative attention.

EDIT: I would normally say that Zark usually is right about reading me as human, but that's not been true in the last couple of games. Okaros and ICB are probably the only people I'd trust to at least withhold judgement. And that's saying something when people can lynch me with virtually no consequences.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 29 Aug 2014, 22:48:14

FIFY ;)
Every Player Ever wrote:People just think I'm wolfy because of the way I play, but I'm not going to make any excuses for it. It's the way I play, and that's all there is to it.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Rictus » 30 Aug 2014, 07:32:20

Hellheart wrote:Everyone's always dead wrong on me when I'm like this. People just think I'm wolfy because of the way I play, but I'm not going to make any excuses for it. It's the way I play, and that's all there is to it. I start out voting for Stigmata because it's safe, sure, but that says nothing about my affiliation. I'm only "helpful wolf" because I try to be helpful human as well. I'm sure I have wolf tells, but what people think are wolf tells end up being human tells every friggin' time.

CAD seemed less wolfy than you did, especially when looking at the votes. That's really all there was to it. Well, that and not deciding the lynch makes me seem way more wolfy. A player that gun-shy is trying a little too hard to avoid negative attention.

EDIT: I would normally say that Zark usually is right about reading me as human, but that's not been true in the last couple of games. Okaros and ICB are probably the only people I'd trust to at least withhold judgement. And that's saying something when people can lynch me with virtually no consequences.


My point was specifically: why tell the rest of the humans to watch rictus in the late game and then snipe kill me? It makes the analysis post look like it was written early in the day and then the snipe kill was a target of opportunity / save for a fellow wolf.

Until the last 10 mins of yesterday I thought you were medium human.
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 30 Aug 2014, 09:39:44

Rictus wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Everyone's always dead wrong on me when I'm like this. People just think I'm wolfy because of the way I play, but I'm not going to make any excuses for it. It's the way I play, and that's all there is to it. I start out voting for Stigmata because it's safe, sure, but that says nothing about my affiliation. I'm only "helpful wolf" because I try to be helpful human as well. I'm sure I have wolf tells, but what people think are wolf tells end up being human tells every friggin' time.

CAD seemed less wolfy than you did, especially when looking at the votes. That's really all there was to it. Well, that and not deciding the lynch makes me seem way more wolfy. A player that gun-shy is trying a little too hard to avoid negative attention.

EDIT: I would normally say that Zark usually is right about reading me as human, but that's not been true in the last couple of games. Okaros and ICB are probably the only people I'd trust to at least withhold judgement. And that's saying something when people can lynch me with virtually no consequences.


My point was specifically: why tell the rest of the humans to watch rictus in the late game and then snipe kill me? It makes the analysis post look like it was written early in the day and then the snipe kill was a target of opportunity / save for a fellow wolf.

Until the last 10 mins of yesterday I thought you were medium human.

That part was a dumb thing to do in retrospect, that I completely agree with. I think I probably would have saved you if you weren't on the phone and were typical human Rictus instead. That would give me a human feel to hang my hat on.

I was tired and I wrote the reads post before i looked at the voting, thus the disconnect.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Rictus » 30 Aug 2014, 10:27:09

Well you saved me a weekend. With 5 days of votes it would have been a good time to start looking at your colored vote charts.

And I don't know if your thread summaries are the best way(but I don't have a better idea); but you're absolutely right about goldfish memories.


Ryvvn, thanks for running a vanilla game. Exactly what I wanted to play for my first game back.
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 30 Aug 2014, 18:43:44

I really want to know whether CAD has a soul read on Visigoth, or whether he just sticks with that vote because it helps standardize his game. His responses to my question about Rictus gave me a very soft human read, but it's hard to get him to deviate from a very guarded, regular pattern.

And yeah, I've wanted to summarize for a long time for myself but I couldn't think of a way to do it via spreadsheets. Then I hit on the idea of just saving the links to a spreadsheet, and then I was like...wait a minute, since I have to use "PM" to get the links anyway, why don't I just post them in the thread instead?

The last straw was in the World's End game, where Ozymandias admonished me for completely ignoring a very valid and convincing ICB wolf case from him. And I just completely forgot it existed. I wouldn't have made that mistake with the Goldfish-B-GON because I like looking over the old analysis/reads posts once in awhile to see if I can glean anything new with recent information.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 30 Aug 2014, 19:00:25

Rictus wrote:And I don't know if your thread summaries are the best way(but I don't have a better idea); but you're absolutely right about goldfish memories.

I'd recommend spoiler tagging previous days, otherwise you'd end up with a long, obnoxious post (much like all those unsnipped block quote posts) come later days, which I, and I'm sure others, would just ignore something like that altogether.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 30 Aug 2014, 20:26:53

Ryvvn wrote:
Rictus wrote:And I don't know if your thread summaries are the best way(but I don't have a better idea); but you're absolutely right about goldfish memories.

I'd recommend spoiler tagging previous days, otherwise you'd end up with a long, obnoxious post (much like all those unsnipped block quote posts) come later days, which I, and I'm sure others, would just ignore something like that altogether.

Yeah, spoiler tagging everything except for the previous day would be a huge improvement. Thanks for that.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 31 Aug 2014, 18:40:32

Damn, was hoping to have a brand new day to look forward to following while stuck at work for 12(!) hours tomorrow, but looks like that's not going to happen... hope there's still at least some activity spread throughout the day tomorrow to keep me awake and entertained.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 31 Aug 2014, 21:36:10

Elvera wrote:I guess the stigmata vote was an unfortunate mishap. I wasn't thinking about how the bandwagons and saving others look when voting. I know playing the new card is getting old but I truly am having a hard time following why people make certain votes. Ah well.

Visigoth had a fantastic response to this.

The only thing I would add is: there's a number of ways to tell when somebody is lying or hiding something, even online. You're probably really good at one of them even if you don't consciously think about it. If you focus on what you do well and learn how to adapt it to an online environment you'll eventually find your niche.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Snake » 01 Sep 2014, 01:12:22

This game is making for totally compelling reading. I'm loving it.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 01 Sep 2014, 18:29:38

I wonder if Elvera will even check back before EoD, and if she does I wonder if she'll panic since this is her first real time up at the chopping block.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Sep 2014, 18:56:57

I'm not sure why Admetus would vote CAD up there, other than that it's a safe (tying) vote. Assuming CAD is going to be online near EOD, that may not end well for the wolves.

DOM read Necklessone's vote as a false vote and I think he's right. I think CAD will correctly see it as a defensive move, so CAD won't vote for him. That leaves Meta4 and Elvera. If CAD's going purely for survival, he'll vote for Elvera because a revenge vote from her will free Necklessone to vote for whomever he wants. Also, voting for somebody with 2 penalty votes is both a dick move and pretty pointless since they're one vote off of WoG.

And if Necklessone he thinks his time is already short, he might decide the lynch for shits and giggles. And to extend his life considerably if he picks out a wolf.

---

Thanks for mentioning that you would've kept up the Device, CAD. I'm glad that several people think it's useful :)

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 01 Sep 2014, 19:01:23

huh, well, guess a die roll it is....

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Sep 2014, 19:19:09

Ryvvn wrote:huh, well, guess a die roll it is....

It's totally gonna kill Meta4, isn't it.

Nope, Necklessone. Better than CAD, IMO, although everyone's probably going to go "meh, he had to die." I would not be surprised if the wolves pushed MEM forward because of this.
Last edited by Hellheart on 01 Sep 2014, 19:20:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 01 Sep 2014, 19:20:10

Welcome, jokerfish and crazy mutha fucka necklessone

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Sep 2014, 19:21:46

Truly enjoyed your angle, Necklessone, and I'm terribly sad that nobody linked my reads post to remind everyone that I read you as human.

Then again, maybe they did. You pretty much had 3 votes that were hard-locked onto you and not going anywhere. But I was hoping you'd be there to break the tie yourself :(

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Sep 2014, 19:24:21

I have a feeling that CAD is going to vote for Visigoth. Again. That could be interesting down the road.

SOMEBODY better maintain the Goldfish-B-GON :x

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Snake » 02 Sep 2014, 04:24:53

The current state of the game looks amazing for Visigoth. A long wolf victory here would be very impressive. The main roadblock I foresee is CAD's distrust of him, should CAD be lynched a human today.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Sep 2014, 04:57:25

Snake wrote:The current state of the game looks amazing for Visigoth. A long wolf victory here would be very impressive. The main roadblock I foresee is CAD's distrust of him, should CAD be lynched a human today.

They have to strategically maul or lynch EVERYONE that was paying attention during Game LIX, where Visigoth did much of the same and was considered the most human player by the end of the game.

If someone fires up the Device again or simply quotes my analysis, that warning about Visigoth should be more than enough to catch people's attention. Never again!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby necklessone » 02 Sep 2014, 05:15:41

Hellheart wrote:Truly enjoyed your angle, Necklessone, and I'm terribly sad that nobody linked my reads post to remind everyone that I read you as human.

Then again, maybe they did. You pretty much had 3 votes that were hard-locked onto you and not going anywhere. But I was hoping you'd be there to break the tie yourself :(

Yeah, there was supposed to be a vote snipe to follow up the Meta4 vote (though I wouldn't have felt too bad had people followed me onto the penalty votes). Then real life decided that I wasn't going to be around for the EoD. *shrug* It happens.

Thanks for the game! I certainly had fun. The real shame is I can't try that again as a wolf unless there's a another game with no seers.

Looking at the wolf team...yeah, that's going to be rough for the humans.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Sep 2014, 05:26:45

The wolves need to off Admetus before the player count runs low enough for him to look at people in more detail. He went all the way to the end with Visigoth, so he almost certainly remembers.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Sep 2014, 08:40:52

RaveBomb wrote:Wow, we suck at this.

I dunno, you seem to be doing alright. 3 wolf votes in 4 days ain't too shabby. But that kind of hit rate clearly means that you're a backstabbing wolf, Ravebomb

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 02 Sep 2014, 10:16:53

So what's proper protocol here? Do I edit out Meta4's vote (don't like touching people's posts in game because it directly affects voting), do I PM him to let him know his error, or do I leave it be and replace him with That PJ after I WoG him at EoD should he fail to return and change his vote?

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby rekard » 02 Sep 2014, 10:34:04

PM him. If he doesn't come back, then WOG/replace. You can make a comment on the thread about it if you want.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 02 Sep 2014, 10:56:43

rekard wrote:PM him. If he doesn't come back, then WOG/replace. You can make a comment on the thread about it if you want.

PM'd him.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 02 Sep 2014, 10:58:53

Hellheart wrote:SOMEBODY better maintain the Goldfish-B-GON :x

Hellheart wrote:If someone fires up the Device again

Ahem.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 02 Sep 2014, 11:35:26

Does DOM's "save the WoG" comment feel like an accidental wolf reveal to anyone else?

Lynching a WoG-candidate is always bad for the humans and always good for the wolves (if it's not a wolf). So advocating for Meta4 there seems like a slip-up from DOM there.



(Of course, from my perch here in the cheap seats I know DOM's a wolf so I have some knowledge-tinted glasses on...)
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 02 Sep 2014, 11:55:19

Okaros wrote:Lynching a WoG-candidate is always bad for the humans and always good for the wolves (if it's not a wolf).

Not sure I understand this reasoning. So right now there are 11 players left, 8 which are human, if they lynch the WoG candidate and he's human then they start tomorrow with 6, affording the humans one more mistake. If they let WoG happen and he's human, and they lynch another human, they start tomorrow with 5 and are automatically at lynch or lose.

Though I do think DOM is making a mistake pushing for that lynch under the guise of "saving the WoG" when I stated yesterday that I'd be replacing if it happened. So if anything I'd just think DOM wouldn't want a player like PJ suddenly entering the game.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby rekard » 02 Sep 2014, 12:23:20

Hellheart wrote:The wolves need to off Admetus before the player count runs low enough for him to look at people in more detail. He went all the way to the end with Visigoth, so he almost certainly remembers.


Nah. Actually it is a Clearasday that they should maul. He has the knack to identify a Visigoth wolf and lynch him. In three previous games Clear has been the artifice of lynching a wolf Visi or in the least put big pressure on him.

And this game seems to follow that particular trend if people follow him. Also, Visi is being too accurate for my tastes. When all you say seems to be correct it can raise a few eyebrows.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 02 Sep 2014, 12:26:24

Ryvvn wrote:Not sure I understand this reasoning. So right now there are 11 players left, 8 which are human, if they lynch the WoG candidate and he's human then they start tomorrow with 6, affording the humans one more mistake. If they let WoG happen and he's human, and they lynch another human, they start tomorrow with 5 and are automatically at lynch or lose.


The numbers lie here, though. If you spend the lynch on someone with no real voting history and no real participation (i.e. the WoG-candidate) you're wasting the lynch to gain no useful information* and essentially giving the wolves a free day to maul. The discussion that would/is happening today would just happen tomorrow instead, and we actually wind up at 4v3 instead of 5v3.

It's not just about raw body count but whether lynching the WoG-candidate actually provides useful information to the humans.




*This is, of course, ignoring the information that might be gained from people arguing over whether to actually follow that plan or not. It's not useful from a voting analysis standpoint, but another day's worth of arguing might trip up a wolf into revealing themselves. By, say, arguing for the lynch to target a WoG-candidate maybe? ;)
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 02 Sep 2014, 12:39:43

Okaros wrote:*This is, of course, ignoring the information that might be gained from people arguing over whether to actually follow that plan or not. It's not useful from a voting analysis standpoint, but another day's worth of arguing might trip up a wolf into revealing themselves. By, say, arguing for the lynch to target a WoG-candidate maybe? ;)

This is the argument I would have made in return.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 02 Sep 2014, 12:52:56

Ryvvn wrote:This is the argument I would have made in return.


But that's effectively a "bait" argument. It can be used to justify literally any behavior/argument. ("We should lynch the confirmed-by-GM seer!" "Why would you even suggest that?" "Because it might spur discussion that reveals a wolf!")

In my mind, the people that would/should agree with you when you make that argument in DOM's shoes are either wolves-taking-the-bait or humans-acting-wofly-through-ignorance-or-malice.
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 02 Sep 2014, 13:08:14

Okaros wrote:or humans-acting-wofly-through-ignorance-or-malice.

Starting to sound like Hellheart's anti-village rhetoric, which is flawed in that it believes players should act a given way by your own imposed standards.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 02 Sep 2014, 13:18:09

Ryvvn wrote:Starting to sound like Hellheart's anti-village rhetoric, which is flawed in that it believes players should act a given way by your own imposed standards.


Come now Ryvvn. That's just what a wolf would say! ;)
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby jokerfish » 02 Sep 2014, 14:08:39

Dat wolf team, tho.

Seriously...haven't FM, Visi, and DOM all won as wolves (perhaps even lone wolves) in the past?

Ozy and Ionitor notwithstanding, Elvera could not have wished for a stronger team on her (his?) first go-around. Wow.
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Re: Dead Chat

Postby dferrantino » 02 Sep 2014, 14:32:18

jokerfish wrote:Seriously...haven't FM, Visi, and DOM all won as wolves (perhaps even lone wolves) in the past?

I believe so. Furin's definitely won as a lone wolf, and I seem to remember Visi doing it as well. DOM I don't think so, but I'm 90% sure he's been on a winning wolf team.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Okaros » 02 Sep 2014, 15:44:21

Elvera wrote:Have people revealed themselves as wolves (on purpose) in the day thread before? I think it would be kind of fun. Then everyone can chime in while I pick which one of them will be my last meal. Hehe :lol:


Oh yes, you're a natural at this game. :twisted:
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Sep 2014, 18:23:40

Ryvvn wrote:Though I do think DOM is making a mistake pushing for that lynch under the guise of "saving the WoG" when I stated yesterday that I'd be replacing if it happened. So if anything I'd just think DOM wouldn't want a player like PJ suddenly entering the game.

muttermuttermutter I bet That PJ would maintain the Device muttermuttermutter

rekard wrote:
Hellheart wrote:The wolves need to off Admetus before the player count runs low enough for him to look at people in more detail. He went all the way to the end with Visigoth, so he almost certainly remembers.


Nah. Actually it is a Clearasday that they should maul. He has the knack to identify a Visigoth wolf and lynch him. In three previous games Clear has been the artifice of lynching a wolf Visi or in the least put big pressure on him.

And this game seems to follow that particular trend if people follow him. Also, Visi is being too accurate for my tastes. When all you say seems to be correct it can raise a few eyebrows.

I think this is the...2nd game I've played in CAD that had wolves in a more normal context, so I didn't know this at all. It seemed to make sense to me though after seeing him vote for Visi 3 days in a row.

Ryvvn wrote:
Okaros wrote:or humans-acting-wofly-through-ignorance-or-malice.

Starting to sound like Hellheart's anti-village rhetoric, which is flawed in that it believes players should act a given way by your own imposed standards.

Which are clearly the best standards. This has been proven time and time again by science, religion, and the liberal use of velociraptors.

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 02 Sep 2014, 19:15:25

Welcome, San and our first wolf game (EVER) player, Elvera!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Ryvvn » 02 Sep 2014, 19:19:36

I want to take a moment to personally thank Elvera for participating, and I hope she doesn't let the pressure of being a wolf for her first game dissuade her from playing more in the future; I hope she had fun! :D

Future tip: it seems the best thing I've learned from the seasoned players is, when in doubt, always blame RaveBomb!

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Re: Dead Chat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Sep 2014, 19:29:12

Biggest things to remember:

1) Nobody ever believes that your random vote is random, unless your human game consists entirely of random votes (San). It's better to give no reason at all instead of saying that a vote is "random," even if it really was a random vote.

2) The best way to survive until late in Ars WW games is to never draw attention to yourself. That is the least time-intensive, and also the most boring, way to play them.

3) Generally speaking, don't volunteer reads unless you're pushing for somebody or you're under pressure. Wolves love to use those things against you, and humans will do the same. If you choose an analytical player route, this point no longer applies - people expect you to volunteer reads and become suspicious when you're too quiet.

4) Nobody expects you to justify anything with analysis. People expect you to come up with an internally consistent way of explaining why you cast a vote or why you thought that a player was wolfy. That's something you establish over a few games.


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