Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

It's totally sweet that this cabin sleeps 20+ and has a kegarator.
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Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby necklessone » 18 Sep 2014, 18:04:35

The power flickers briefly, but few of you even register it. A scrum has formed around Ionitor and Okaros as they let the accusations and fists fly. They slowly make their way towards the furniture scaffold that Hellheart and rekard used on their fateful climb.

You know where this is going. Okaros shoves Ionitor hard, taking them down. Not to be outdone, Ionitor lunges from the groups at Okaros’s knees, sending him reeling into a loose chair. The whole house of cards (and wood and nails and stuff) collapses. When the dust clears, there’s a battered looking Ionitor staring at the furry feet of Okaros sticking out from beneath the furniture.

Okaros - Wolf, Wicked Witched

Before any of you can take stock and make sure everyone is alright, two furry forms burst out of a trap door near the kitchen.

AHOOOOOOOOOOOO!

DastardlyOldMan is cut down by the werewolves before he has a chance to react. The rest of you flee madly towards the back of the cabin.

DastardlyOldMan - Human, Mauled


Today’s vote:
Who isn’t paying attention to that dangerous and heavy low-hanging artwork as they flee?
(This is a lynch vote, EoD in 24 hours)

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby necklessone » 18 Sep 2014, 18:05:34

Okaros : 7 : dferrantino, sphenodont, Admetus, Omega, 7-Zark-7, Ionitor
Ionitor : 6 : That PJ, Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth, BlindSniper83, RaveBomb, Okaros
Rictus : 3 : meta4, Snake, Ryvvn
7-Zark-7 : 2 : DastardlyOldMan, Aldax
Admetus : 1 : San
Ryvvn : 1 : Rictus
sphenodont : 1 : jokerfish

Yes, the vote totals are correct.

No vote recorded (1) : Simple_Simon
No penalty for a first missed vote, especially with a new job.

[+] Vote History
dferrantino voted for Okaros
San voted for Admetus
RaveBomb voted for meta4 (Retracted)
meta4 voted for Rictus
Snake voted for Rictus
Ionitor voted for 7-Zark-7 (Retracted)
DastardlyOldMan voted for 7-Zark-7
That PJ voted for Ionitor
Iron Clad Burrito voted for Ionitor
sphenodont voted for Okaros
Ryvvn voted for Snake (Retracted)
Visigoth voted for Ionitor
Rictus voted for Ryvvn
Admetus voted for Okaros
Omega voted for Okaros
7-Zark-7 voted for Okaros
BlindSniper83 voted for Ionitor
Aldax voted for 7-Zark-7
Ryvvn voted for Rictus
jokerfish voted for sphenodont
RaveBomb voted for Ionitor
Okaros voted for Ionitor
Ionitor voted for Okaros

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby necklessone » 18 Sep 2014, 18:10:33

As you flee, the earth shakes slightly.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby RaveBomb » 18 Sep 2014, 18:14:12

necklessone wrote:As you flee, the earth shakes slightly.


This can't be good.
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 18 Sep 2014, 18:14:29

Sphenodont

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby jokerfish » 18 Sep 2014, 18:15:06

necklessone wrote:Okaros : 7 : dferrantino, sphenodont, Admetus, Omega, 7-Zark-7, Ionitor



6 voters but 7 votes? OK...

Vote manipulation powers, perhaps?
http://flic.kr/mylesmartinez/

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 18 Sep 2014, 18:23:44

Day 1 votes
Mister E. Meat : 5 : RaveBomb, San, Rictus, DastardlyOldMan, Visigoth
Admetus : 4 : jokerfish, That PJ, 7-Zark-7, Ionitor
Visigoth : 4 : Admetus, Okaros, Aldax, sphenodont
BlindSniper83 : 2 : Hellheart, Simple_Simon
DastardlyOldMan : 2 : Mister E. Meat, Anzig
Okaros : 2 : Snake, Omega
Omega : 2 : rekard, dferrantino
RaveBomb : 2 : meta4, Iron Clad Burrito
meta4 : 1 : Ryvvn
Simple_Simon : 1 : BlindSniper83
No vote recorded (1) : Clearasday

Day 2 votes
Anzig : 7 : Ryvvn, Ionitor, DastardlyOldMan, Aldax, Admetus, Omega, Rictus
Ionitor : 7 : San, That PJ, Okaros, Visigoth, Simple_Simon, RaveBomb, Anzig
Rictus : 4 : Iron Clad Burrito, 7-Zark-7, BlindSniper83, sphenodont
sphenodont : 2 : dferrantino, Hellheart
Visigoth : 2 : Snake, meta4
DastardlyOldMan : 1 : jokerfish
Okaros : 1 : rekard

Day 3 votes:
Hellheart : 6 : Ryvvn, meta4, Visigoth, Simple_Simon, Omega, Okaros
Okaros : 6 : Admetus, Ionitor, rekard, 7-Zark-7, Aldax, Hellheart
Rictus : 3 : Iron Clad Burrito, Snake, sphenodont
sphenodont : 2 : That PJ, dferrantino
Admetus : 1 : Rictus
Ionitor : 1 : RaveBomb
Iron Clad Burrito : 1 : San
rekard : 1 : DastardlyOldMan
San : 1 : BlindSniper83
No vote recorded (1) : jokerfish


Okaros : 7 : dferrantino, sphenodont, Admetus, Omega, 7-Zark-7, Ionitor
Ionitor : 6 : That PJ, Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth, BlindSniper83, RaveBomb, Okaros
Rictus : 3 : meta4, Snake, Ryvvn
7-Zark-7 : 2 : DastardlyOldMan, Aldax
Admetus : 1 : San
Ryvvn : 1 : Rictus
sphenodont : 1 : jokerfish

Yes, the vote totals are correct.

No vote recorded (1) : Simple_Simon

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Admetus » 18 Sep 2014, 18:25:37

Hah, I feel like a real wolf game player again!

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 18 Sep 2014, 18:28:09

We saw two werewolves.

That would bring the total to... four?

Something isn't right... between that and the earthquake, i sense a shift in format, just in time for the weekend.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 18 Sep 2014, 18:33:57

Interesting that a pair of people I called out yesterday for certain behaviors changed them -- Omega managed to vote for a wolf and blindsniper made a vote that had meaning.

Ionitor, I have a question. What exactly did you mean by "While Okaros may be a Lupine Evil, he is Not the Best Target for today. If I Die Before I Wake, I Pray The Lord that you leave him the fuck alone for a few days."

I'm serious. In Ionitor speak, "You should probably Quit Dallying and Get To the fucking Point about What you Are Trying To tell the General population."

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby sphenodont » 18 Sep 2014, 18:42:11

For the record, I misunderstood the "Wicked Witched" bit and thought it was a hint that a faction of witches that were responsible for the vote manipulation, but now I see it was just the whole "house fell on him" thing.

Sexy witches, I hope?

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby dferrantino » 18 Sep 2014, 18:51:01

sphenodont wrote: Sexy witches, I hope?

Best witches.

*brought to you by drunkasfuck dferr

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Visigoth » 18 Sep 2014, 19:02:50

Well Okaros wasn't just a wolf but part of another faction as well. Our first of the hidden factions. Just a wonder if they are solo factions of multiples within each faction. Also goes to show that the hidden factions (at least one) also had members within the wolf group. Though oddly the rules state that no one is part of more than one faction, that they know about. So how does that play into the fact that he appeared to be part of two factions?

Though I guess the Wicked Witch tag might be some sort of role but none are given for the wolves in the rules. A hidden role then since those were a possibility in the rules. Just wonder what such a role would have as powers. A Vig power of some sort? Of course we know Okaros was around at EOD so if he was a Vig why not take that shot? Perhaps hoping that Ionitor wouldn't be around so would live or at best hope for winning a tie. And of course he couldn't have counted on whatever caused him to get another vote.

In an unusually move I'm going to vote early. This idea formed as the votes where playing out and was kind of hoping Okaros would be lynched since it might shed some light on that idea. I've voting on Blindsniper83. His vote on Ionitor brought it to within 1 soon after Okaros picked up three votes putting him into the lead. RaveBomb might be another possibility since his vote created a tie, but then again RaveBomb.

Of course I'm still skeptical of Ionitor especially since after his declaration of Okaros he then goes on to suggest we look elsewhere instead. If he's a human would he not want us to get the wolves since it states that our goal it to remove all the wolves. If he's human but in a hidden faction then would he be suggesting that because he/they have some other victory condition that would be spoiled if we lynch all the wolves too quickly.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby necklessone » 18 Sep 2014, 19:35:49

((Before people go off the deep end, some clarifications. Okaros had both the role and team of wolf; nothing more, nothing less. Wicked Witched referred only to how I killed him. Also, the number of wolves chosen was to establish a lower bound; it does not mean there are only two more wolves. ))

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Ryvvn » 18 Sep 2014, 23:50:04

Omega, I'm curious about your votes:
  • Theoretically random vote on Okaros D1
  • Late jumps on human kill wagons D2 & D3
  • D3 allowed your random D1, Okaros, who was in D3 lynch trouble at the time, to subsequently follow you and bring the human wagon into a tie
  • Return to Okaros on D4
  • You, Ionitor, and Okaros have interesting placements in relation to each other which keeps drawing my eye

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Ionitor » 19 Sep 2014, 03:44:51

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Ionitor, I have a question. What exactly did you mean by "While Okaros may be a Lupine Evil, he is Not the Best Target for today. If I Die Before I Wake, I Pray The Lord that you leave him the fuck alone for a few days."

I'm serious. In Ionitor speak, "You should probably Quit Dallying and Get To the fucking Point about What you Are Trying To tell the General population."

As I said Shortly Before That:
Ionitor wrote:It is not Purely of Personal Interest that I State that It Is Too Early to Recycle targets such as Me and Okaros, barring Significant Reason. In the Somewhat Likely Event that Okaros is only a Sinful Human, this Day is Wasted. Do not Let the Lurkers slip Into the Night.

While I felt Okaros was More Likely to be Wolf than Others, if he Was, Several days of Ties with him would make it Easy for Wolves to Hide their Votes. Rather, We Must be Investigating those avoiding the Radar in these Early Days, giving us a Record of Their Friends later.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby That PJ » 19 Sep 2014, 04:55:17

jokerfish wrote:
necklessone wrote:Okaros : 7 : dferrantino, sphenodont, Admetus, Omega, 7-Zark-7, Ionitor



6 voters but 7 votes? OK...

Vote manipulation powers, perhaps?

Didn't want this to get lost in the shuffle. Definitely a vote manipulation power of some shade--necklessone even made an extra note that the totals were correct, so something is afoot there.

Immediate conclusion is that Ionitor is important to another faction, and a power was expended to help him out. Or else another faction had insight into a wolf's identity, which is certainly not unthinkable. Either way, very interesting.

Still sifting data. I really didn't think Okaros was a wolf, so I'm doubting my instincts at present.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 19 Sep 2014, 05:10:48

A vote manipulator power? How interesting.

Let's take a look at how this could be working. First I will assume that the power comes into play in the event of a tie at EOD. I will also assume it is a player power acting upon themselves and not "castable" on a decision, similar the the mafia role, "the doublevoter"

Next we shall take all the EOD ties we have had so far.

Anzig : 7 : Ryvvn, Ionitor, DastardlyOldMan, Aldax, Admetus, Omega, Rictus
Ionitor : 7 : San, That PJ, Okaros, Visigoth, Simple_Simon, RaveBomb, Anzig



Hellheart : 6 : Ryvvn, meta4, Visigoth, Simple_Simon, Omega, Okaros
Okaros : 6 : Admetus, Ionitor, rekard, 7-Zark-7, Aldax, Hellheart



Okaros : 7 : dferrantino, sphenodont, Admetus, Omega, 7-Zark-7, Ionitor
Ionitor : 6 : That PJ, Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth, BlindSniper83, RaveBomb, Okaros


So let's look at the players voting for Okaros yesterday. We have:

dferrantino
sphenodont
Admetus
Omega
7-Zark-7
Ionitor

Now let's eliminate anyone who was voting in the prior ties.

dferrantino
sphenodont

Interesting results.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby sphenodont » 19 Sep 2014, 06:14:29

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Interesting that a pair of people I called out yesterday for certain behaviors changed them -- Omega managed to vote for a wolf and blindsniper made a vote that had meaning.

Ionitor, I have a question. What exactly did you mean by "While Okaros may be a Lupine Evil, he is Not the Best Target for today. If I Die Before I Wake, I Pray The Lord that you leave him the fuck alone for a few days."

I'm serious. In Ionitor speak, "You should probably Quit Dallying and Get To the fucking Point about What you Are Trying To tell the General population."


Men of vision are often questioned by those who do not share their lofty perspectives, but sometimes seemingly-insane ramblings are actually the work of the insane. Or the drunk.

Still, given that Okaros turned out to be a werewolf, it all but guarantees that Ionitor is a human. (Visigoth, as well, unless we want to consider that the werewolves were pursuing some truly insane "risk everyone to buy cred" strategy, but since both CAD and DOM were human, I'm assuming no one else is wily enough to attempt it.)

As for behaviors, I'm starting to look at some of the people down-chart. Two people in particular started off the game in the thick of things and have since voted for inconsequential singletons, Rictus and San. Jokerfish fits the mold, too. They're all experienced enough to know that while staying alive is important, conspiciously staying under the radar for that purpose hurts the human cause.

Rictus has my vote for now, and again. We'll see how the others vote today.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Ionitor » 19 Sep 2014, 06:16:18

I now Assert that the Manipulation may have been Accidental. Previously, Okaros had survived a Tie, As did myself. There may be lovers Of some kind in play?

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 19 Sep 2014, 06:29:20

Ionitor wrote:I now Assert that the Manipulation may have been Accidental. Previously, Okaros had survived a Tie, As did myself.

There may be lovers Of some kind in play?


How are these statements linked?

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby That PJ » 19 Sep 2014, 06:33:13

Ionitor wrote:I now Assert that the Manipulation may have been Accidental. Previously, Okaros had survived a Tie, As did myself. There may be lovers Of some kind in play?

This was actually my thought, since as Okaros pointed out, there was a previous lovers power in a previous necklessone game where voting together reaped excellent results. My impulse would be to suspect that Ionitor might be one half of the lovers, which would go a long way to explaining the odd Day 1 behavior. But that might also be another faction playing games.

E: I don't think it's accidental, mind, I just think lovers might be involved.
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Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Ionitor » 19 Sep 2014, 06:38:36

necklessone wrote:As you flee, the earth shakes slightly.
All are DOOMED. I may have Mentioned this Earlier.

Ravebomb continues to Vex me. His Work does not have the Probing Quality that I often See, and the Fact that he Continues to aim at me causes me to Suspect that he is not Hiding as a Visionary. I am not Convinced he is Lupine, but I do not Think he is on the side of Righteousness.
Last edited by Ionitor on 19 Sep 2014, 17:40:27, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby sphenodont » 19 Sep 2014, 06:39:51

RaveBomb wrote:
necklessone wrote:As you flee, the earth shakes slightly.


This can't be good.


Deadite Conversion Faction Confirmed. :flail:

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Ionitor » 19 Sep 2014, 06:41:59

Snake wrote:
Ionitor wrote:I now Assert that the Manipulation may have been Accidental. Previously, Okaros had survived a Tie, As did myself.

There may be lovers Of some kind in play?


How are these statements linked?

If two Lovers, unknown to Each Other, can create Three Votes From Two, that may explain the events. If it was Meant to Save me, why not on Day Two? If Okaros was wanted Dead, why not on Day Three?

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Meta4 » 19 Sep 2014, 07:11:09

necklessone wrote:As you flee, the earth shakes slightly.



Sorry, that was me. Fiber bars.

Rictus is still on tap.
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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby RaveBomb » 19 Sep 2014, 07:29:40

The posting.php?mode=quote&f=118&p=33584 has been deemed by your administrator to be unsafe or unsuitable for you to access. The resource has been blocked. No further action is required.

Reason: The category of Gambling has been blocked by your System Administrator


And then it cleared up.

EDIT: Holy crap, no it didn't, I can't quote posts anymore. :flail: :lol: :facepalm: Brilliant.
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If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby sphenodont » 19 Sep 2014, 07:31:06

The two earlier TWG boards are blocked here at work for Gaming/Games.

Which makes me wonder... who's got money on these games, and how can I get in on the action?

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby sphenodont » 19 Sep 2014, 07:33:27

RaveBomb wrote:EDIT: Holy crap, no it didn't, I can't quote posts anymore. :flail: :lol: :facepalm: Brilliant.


:lol:
/nelsonhaha


You could try a regular "Reply", then scroll back in the thread below and "quote" it that way. You'd lose the links, but who clicks on those?

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 19 Sep 2014, 07:40:26

That PJ wrote: I just think lovers might be involved.

Ionitor wrote:There may be lovers Of some kind in play?


Why? There's no mention of lovers anywhere in this game up until this post on Day 3:

Simon detects love is in the air

The known roles don't contain lovers so why is there a growing feeling that they are here?
[+] The Rules
As far as any of you know, this game is vanilla. There will be the following roles:
  • Voyeur - Once per day the voyeur may look into another players room to try and catch them naked. They will find out that players role if it's on this list.
  • Sober Escort - While the other players are getting too drunk to function at night, you can choose one of them (or yourself) to watch over. Your target may not be night killed that night, but you may not target the same player on consecutive days.
  • Hunter - Of course you brought your rifle on a weekend get away filled with liquor and running around the woods. You never know when you'll see the buck of a lifetime. Once per game, you may shoot another player in the day thread to kill them instantly.
  • Wolves - You may look like a standard horny college student, but you're actually a member of the cult that's protected this lake for centuries. Each night your team will vote to kill another player until The Hunger is satisfied.
Also, this game is not vanilla. There are hidden rules and roles. There will be no conversions, but there may be no more than two hidden factions.


The notion that lovers can alter vote counts is an even wilder assumption. Is there a precedent for it in earlier games?

In the role list is does mention we might be seeing unknown factions. Would it not be safer to assume that vote fudging is the result of them as opposed to lovers?

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Admetus » 19 Sep 2014, 07:42:27

RaveBomb wrote:
The posting.php?mode=quote&f=118&p=33584 has been deemed by your administrator to be unsafe or unsuitable for you to access. The resource has been blocked. No further action is required.

Reason: The category of Gambling has been blocked by your System Administrator


And then it cleared up.

EDIT: Holy crap, no it didn't, I can't quote posts anymore. :flail: :lol: :facepalm: Brilliant.

It's cool, no further quoting action is required from you, RaveBomb.

I guess you must have tripped some automated filtering? Maybe some keywords or something? Just make sure you never mention anything chance related or you might lose reply next time. ;)

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby That PJ » 19 Sep 2014, 07:50:15

Snake wrote:
That PJ wrote: I just think lovers might be involved.

Ionitor wrote:There may be lovers Of some kind in play?


Why? There's no mention of lovers anywhere in this game up until this post on Day 3:

Simon detects love is in the air

The known roles don't contain lovers so why is there a growing feeling that they are here?
[+] The Rules
As far as any of you know, this game is vanilla. There will be the following roles:
  • Voyeur - Once per day the voyeur may look into another players room to try and catch them naked. They will find out that players role if it's on this list.
  • Sober Escort - While the other players are getting too drunk to function at night, you can choose one of them (or yourself) to watch over. Your target may not be night killed that night, but you may not target the same player on consecutive days.
  • Hunter - Of course you brought your rifle on a weekend get away filled with liquor and running around the woods. You never know when you'll see the buck of a lifetime. Once per game, you may shoot another player in the day thread to kill them instantly.
  • Wolves - You may look like a standard horny college student, but you're actually a member of the cult that's protected this lake for centuries. Each night your team will vote to kill another player until The Hunger is satisfied.
Also, this game is not vanilla. There are hidden rules and roles. There will be no conversions, but there may be no more than two hidden factions.


The notion that lovers can alter vote counts is an even wilder assumption. Is there a precedent for it in earlier games?

In the role list is does mention we might be seeing unknown factions. Would it not be safer to assume that vote fudging is the result of them as opposed to lovers?

It's a fair point, I just don't want to limit our considerations of vote manipulation too narrowly. A tie might not be necessary either. But the more I look into voting patterns, I don't see a reasonable pairing of lovers--at least so far--so I'm inclined to discard the notion for the time being.

Which leaves us with dferrantino and sphenodont as the odd ones out in those voting situations, as you noted.
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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby sphenodont » 19 Sep 2014, 07:54:01

Snake wrote:The known roles don't contain lovers so why is there a growing feeling that they are here?
(snipped)

In the role list is does mention we might be seeing unknown factions. Would it not be safer to assume that vote fudging is the result of them as opposed to lovers?


To the contrary, from your posted excerpt of the rules:

The Rules wrote:Also, this game is not vanilla. There are hidden rules and roles. There will be no conversions, but there may be no more than two hidden factions.


Odd that you'd pick up on the hidden factions, but not the hidden rules/roles bit from that.

That said, if you want me to vote for dferrantino to prove we're not lovers, I can do that. Because if we were lovers, I couldn't. (Except that I don't want to, because I still think Rictus is the way to go.)
Last edited by sphenodont on 19 Sep 2014, 07:56:20, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: removed bolding

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Ionitor » 19 Sep 2014, 07:54:22

Snake wrote:The notion that lovers can alter vote counts is an even wilder assumption. Is there a precedent for it in earlier games?

Ghosts.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby That PJ » 19 Sep 2014, 07:58:41

Ionitor wrote:
Snake wrote:The notion that lovers can alter vote counts is an even wilder assumption. Is there a precedent for it in earlier games?

Ghosts.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 19 Sep 2014, 08:03:29

sphenodont wrote:That said, if you want me to vote for dferrantino to prove we're not lovers, I can do that.


That's not necessary. I don't think you're a lover. I think you're a wolf.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Admetus » 19 Sep 2014, 08:15:39

So, I'm still not quite sure how much I should be trying to use Cabin in the Woods, the movie, as my lens to interpret and speculate. It's not even officially declared as the basis of the game.

If it is themed that way, though, there should be one secret faction of pro-wolf personnel. They'd have goals related to the sequence or method of deaths, and the earthquake would be a likely sign that they are failing at their task. Their special powers could well include vote manipulation because they had methods of influencing behavior and actions.

So, at this point, if all those speculations are in the right direction, we don't really need to do anything special yet. In this hypothetical scenario, the secret faction is probably scrambling to make up for their mistake of helping to get a wolf killed. They probably thought Okaros was more human than Ionitor or something.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 19 Sep 2014, 08:22:37

Admetus wrote:So, I'm still not quite sure how much I should be trying to use Cabin in the Woods, the movie, as my lens to interpret and speculate. It's not even officially declared as the basis of the game.

If it is themed that way, though, there should be one secret faction of pro-wolf personnel. They'd have goals related to the sequence or method of deaths, and the earthquake would be a likely sign that they are failing at their task. Their special powers could well include vote manipulation because they had methods of influencing behavior and actions.

So, at this point, if all those speculations are in the right direction, we don't really need to do anything special yet. In this hypothetical scenario, the secret faction is probably scrambling to make up for their mistake of helping to get a wolf killed. They probably thought Okaros was more human than Ionitor or something.


I wrote out a big post about the Cabin in the Woods idea but I thought it was too heavily based on conjecture... Since you have taken it there, though!

I thought that the vote manipulation could be the work of a backroom faction attempting to coordinate the deaths. They have to make sure we are killed by the wolves? Maybe in an order? Much like the film?

Another idea I had that came to me as I read Ravebomb's gambling problem is that perhaps, like in the film, they are putting bets on the humans. The secret faction may be betting on when we are going to be mauled?

All speculation and food for thought.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby That PJ » 19 Sep 2014, 08:45:29

That would definitely be one way to have a non-conversion third faction. Having no familiarity with Cabin in the Woods, this possible connection was lost on me.
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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 19 Sep 2014, 08:51:28

Given that the secret company in Cabin in the Woods is all humans it could be the case that we wouldn't know if we had killed them. In that eventuality the only known human death so far would be CAD. Which would be... less than helpful :lol:

It would also go to explain why the seer can only seer the roles on the list. After all, if the secret faction is just a bunch of nefarious humans, what's to seer?


Edit: grammar
Last edited by Snake on 19 Sep 2014, 08:55:51, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby That PJ » 19 Sep 2014, 08:54:39

Snake wrote:Given that the secret company in Cabin in the Woods is all humans it could be the case that we wouldn't know if we had killed them. In that eventually the only known human death so far would be CAD. Which would be... less than helpful :lol:

It would also go to explain why the seer can only seer the roles on the list. After all, if the secret faction is just a bunch of nefarious humans, what's to seer?

True. And more importantly, it emphasizes our need to just hunt the damn wolves already. Stay on task, as it were.

So, I seem to recall sphenodont thought it was a good idea to focus on bringing down all factions instead of focusing on wolves, and has some suspicious voting habits. Anyone have any other candidates? A lot of folks have mentioned Rictus, but I'm still not sure why.
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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby necklessone » 19 Sep 2014, 09:59:21

Rictus : 2 : sphenodont, meta4
sphenodont : 2 : Snake, That PJ
BlindSniper83 : 1 : Visigoth
Omega : 1 : Ryvvn
RaveBomb : 1 : Ionitor

No vote recorded (12) : 7-Zark-7, Admetus, Aldax, BlindSniper83, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito, jokerfish, Omega, RaveBomb, Rictus, San, Simple_Simon

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Rictus » 19 Sep 2014, 10:32:34

Yesterday was the first day that Aldax and Admetus didn't vote for the same person.

Lovers? Predator/prey? Unlucky targets of a third party? I dunno. But I bet it's tied to the earthquake.


Edit: on my phone so can't elaborate on admetus and snakes point about cabin in the woods. My point is only based on votes.
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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 19 Sep 2014, 12:39:40

Metal Seer Solid

Ok folk, the sphenodont vote hasn't had the momentum I would like so here's a stone to start some ripples.

Introducing Snake as The Seer.
'Kept you waiting, huh?'


Strap yourselves in for the opening cutscene.

I am the seer and sphenodont is a wolf.

Now I know what some of you might think, this could be a steaming crock of shit. Well let me alleviate those worries as I break down the best way to work out how to trust me.

Luckily I have stayed alive long enough to seer a wolf. Also, I have seered someone who later died. These two pieces of information are vital. Given this game could have a number of hidden roles or factions, I have been carefully working out if I am one of many seers. However, I have deduced that if there is more than one seer, I am surely the right one.

Let's review : day 1 I seer CAD. He is immediately mauled. I am told he is the human hunter. I now know I correctly identify humans. This rules out a paranoid seer, a confused seer, an insane seer and a drunk seer.

Day 4 I seer sphenodont and he is told to me to be a wolf. Thus ruling out a naive seer.

At this stage it's very likely I am a correct seer notwithstanding some ridiculous algorithmically confusing seer role.

'But Snake, what if you're a wolf and aiming for the greatest wolf play of all time? You lynch sphen and then cruise to victory after mauling the actual seer tonight.' Well it's simple, after you lynch sphenodont, if anyone counter claims me, lynch me, then lynch them.

Now it's also possible that some of you might think to lynch me to learn if I am the seer before lynching sphen. I'd advise against this as I can get another seering in the other way round. If he turns out to be a human you can lynch me.

The final eventuality is that I am wrong. I have seered a wolf but they are not a wolf. There are hidden things going on. What if there's a twg equivalent of a hooker? Well if that happens then I'm fucked.

As for who I seered day 2 and 3? I'm not going to say. I seer anyone in a secret faction as human. The last thing we need is a confirmed human who isn't human.

tl;dr I am seer. Lynch sphen. GA pls.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Ionitor » 19 Sep 2014, 13:00:26

Options:

Lynch Snake. This is a Terrible Plan.

Lynch Not-Snake-Or-sphenodont, with the Working Assumption that sphenodont is Lupine. When Snake is Mauled and Revealed as Seer, we Kill sphenodont, the Sinner. This Plan attempts to Seduce me, the Whore that it is. It Gains more Vote History now, but at the Expense of the Day of Snake's Death.

Lynch sphenodont, but Keep Discussion going for Second Place, to Reduce Shenanigans. This is the Best Plan. I Will move to the Sinner if the vote is Too Close to Even, but I will count on the Sheep to Follow Snake.

Snake, while the Assumption that All Others are Morons is Fair, it is still Best if you Reveal your Other Readings. We will Know that Human is not the same as Righteous. Knowing that they are Not Wolf will still Help.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby 7-zark-7 » 19 Sep 2014, 13:07:25

Ionitor wrote:Snake, while the Assumption that All Others are Morons is Fair, it is still Best if you Reveal your Other Readings. We will Know that Human is not the same as Righteous. Knowing that they are Not Wolf will still Help.


This (although not quite how I would put it). Well now I'm standing. Happy? We're all standing now. Bunch of jackasses, standing in a circle. Sphenodont? Why aren't you standing with us?

more in a bit,

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby 7-zark-7 » 19 Sep 2014, 13:17:59

((I want to take a moment & reference {as well as archive} Snake's pre-reveal musings on the extra-wolf-killing-vote from yesterday))

Subject: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

[+] Glorious Results of a Misspent Youth
Snake wrote:A vote manipulator power? How interesting.

Let's take a look at how this could be working. First I will assume that the power comes into play in the event of a tie at EOD. I will also assume it is a player power acting upon themselves and not "castable" on a decision, similar the the mafia role, "the doublevoter"

Next we shall take all the EOD ties we have had so far.

Anzig : 7 : Ryvvn, Ionitor, DastardlyOldMan, Aldax, Admetus, Omega, Rictus
Ionitor : 7 : San, That PJ, Okaros, Visigoth, Simple_Simon, RaveBomb, Anzig



Hellheart : 6 : Ryvvn, meta4, Visigoth, Simple_Simon, Omega, Okaros
Okaros : 6 : Admetus, Ionitor, rekard, 7-Zark-7, Aldax, Hellheart



Okaros : 7 : dferrantino, sphenodont, Admetus, Omega, 7-Zark-7, Ionitor
Ionitor : 6 : That PJ, Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth, BlindSniper83, RaveBomb, Okaros


So let's look at the players voting for Okaros yesterday. We have:

dferrantino
sphenodont
Admetus
Omega
7-Zark-7
Ionitor

Now let's eliminate anyone who was voting in the prior ties.

dferrantino
sphenodont

Interesting results.


((Bottom line:
1) if we do have traditional lovers (even star crossed) we could loose a human via this action
2) That's worth it at this stage of the game if it nabs us a wolf (unless other mechanics are in play that we haven't seen yet)
3) That would happen regardless with star crossed lovers
4) A fake seer ploy is more likely later in the game, especially under this auspice
5) if he's wrong, we should kill him in the morning.))

More in a bit,

7z7

((PS - spoiler title is my favorite Joan Jett album. I'm reminded based upon Cherry Bomb being in the Guardians soundtrack))
Last edited by 7-zark-7 on 19 Sep 2014, 13:23:23, edited 1 time in total.
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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Admetus » 19 Sep 2014, 13:22:12

Well shit, I hadn't finalized the choice but I'd been thinking sphenodont was one of my top choices. If I'd been faster, maybe you wouldn't have come out for another day.

Ionitor - if the goal is to try building useful vote information, that's just impossible if the conclusion is already known ahead of time. Anyone can vote on anyone if the whole village is determined to make sure sphenodont wins in the end.


And Snake, I second the "give us all the info" suggestion. I'm going to assume you seered members of the MEM vote train, if you were trying to narrow that down to find the wolf you'd expected to find there.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Snake » 19 Sep 2014, 13:25:27

Fair enough, I will word it appropriately. Further information:

My public pursuit of the MEM train was largely invented to appear to be on a goose chase and not a viable maul target.

The following seerings took place:
Day 1: CAD is human hunter
Day 2: Admetus is not a wolf
Day 3: ICB is not a wolf
Day 4: sphenodont is a wolf.

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Re: Day 5: Maybe more nails next time and less duct tape?

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 19 Sep 2014, 13:41:38

Well, that will wrap up Friday.

Hai sphenodont


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