Day 9: The Final Day

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Day 9: The Final Day

Postby necklessone » 10 Mar 2015, 18:24:00

The village is burning. It's not clear how the fire started, but it was sometime during the epic confrontation between Visigoth and the giant chicken who was pretending (poorly) to be Omega. I could describe the fight, but it would just be the classic tale of man versus chicken. You know the one: the battle lasts for way too long and each subsequent conflict is less funny than those that came before, but it's like the writers needed to pad the episode and someone put down their joint and was like, "Hey, let's just have Peter fight the chicken for all of Act 2" Just lazy.

Did I say Peter? I meant Visigoth. Oh, and they both died.

Visigoth - GA
Omega - Giant Chicken

And now there are four. Will you end the threat or be destroyed by your poultry overlord?


Votes may be locked (just mention it with the vote) or unlocked (retract as normal). The day will end in 24 hours or when all players have a locked vote and I see it.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 10 Mar 2015, 20:06:20

I'm going to spoiler the part where I answer Cato. It might be interesting to read through if you're bored, but it's not really critical.
[+] stuff
Subject: Day 8: The Final Sacrifice (also, Tuesday)

Cato wrote:Cato has been thinking about who is lying about role. Cato is not wolf. Cato knows who Guardian is. If Cato was wolf, only one person could be Guardian, Guardian would be dead. Cato has known this since everyone tells roles.

Crassus could be Liar, could be not. Cato thinks he will move vote to Crassus, hopes Crassus might be here. If Crassus is Liar, he can prove easily. May still be wolf Liar, Cato is unsure. Cato wishes he had thought of this earlier.

ThatPJ could be wolf, but Cato is not Vigilante. Cato thinks it odd that only Vigilante is wolf. Cato thinks ThatPJ speaks truth.

MEM could be wolf, but that means that Cato would be Miller. Cato is unsure if Miller would know he is Miller. Rules seem to say yes, but Cato thinks that odd.

Yes, I was also paying attention to the shrinking space for the GA. However, it's not actually true that the GA would be known to the wolves until Cam, the last vanilla human, died. I was waiting for today to ask the GA to claim, because only in the case where the GA was not who I expected it to be would I need to worry about having overlooked something really critical. It went like this from my point of view yesterday:

Crassus, me
That PJ, vig
Mister E. Meat, miller
Visigoth, human of some kind, therefore GA
Cato
Omega

So, both yesterday and today, either Omega and Cato were the two wolves and everything was completely unambiguous, but mostly just to me -- or somehow a wolf was hiding in the Vig or Miller claim spots. Technically the vig could be a wolf, but I simply doubt it was necessary for the wolves to choose to shoot one of their own at that point, or balanced to have the only vig be a wolf.

The last variable was whether a wolf would be bold enough to hide in the Miller's spot. I figured if that had happened, the wolves must have gotten some kind of hint that it could be done without instantly becoming a wolf sacrifice. So I just asked necklessone, in case it was a "I didn't tell you because nobody asked" thing. He confirmed that the wouldn't add anything beyond what he'd already said. So I think that leaves it at: he told every special, including the Miller. I agree that this is somewhat odd... it makes the Miller a "claim to become an unchallenged human" role. It's kind of backwards. But as far as I can tell, it's what happened.

And with that, it became obvious I'd be the one left to the end as the most likely scapegoat for the wolves. I basically just wanted to see if there was any possibility that the maul role reveal would show anything other than GA, which would indicate MEM was lying. Keep in mind, if MEM was a wolf, that would mean the wolves still hadn't pinned down the GA vs Miller. Because if MEM was not the Miller, the sequence of missed maul, then Rictus maul, then GA maul meant they didn't know which was Miller and which was GA was until this maul.


So after all that, basically the conclusion from yesterday was - Cato's the last wolf, and no surprises popped up to make me strongly doubt it. Only other distant possibility is MEM, but it would have been a seriously low percentage chance that they somehow avoided mauling the actual Miller this long.

-edit-
Oh, right, locked.

-edit 2-
Unlocked. Tell me if you think I'm crazy below...
Last edited by Crassus on 10 Mar 2015, 23:07:52, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Mister E. Meat » 10 Mar 2015, 20:23:42

I can think of very few reasons why I was able to survive this long since claiming the Miller. One is that I have been defending Cato since Sunday. Locked and if I'm wrong, I blame Mortus.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Cato » 10 Mar 2015, 22:16:35

Crassus wrote:So I just asked necklessone, in case it was a "I didn't tell you because nobody asked" thing. He confirmed that the wouldn't add anything beyond what he'd already said.

Cato does not see this clarification with necklessone. Cato does not see you asking. Cato thinks maybe Crassus is thinking of the henhouse.

[+] GA discussion
Cato asks you to see from his perspective. At ~end of Day 6:
Visigoth Human
Rictus Liar
Crassus Liar
ThatPJ Vig
MEM Miller
Snake
Omega
Cam
Cato

- 3 of which are wolves. The only way that works is if the three wolves are Snake, Omega, and Cam - or someone else is lying. Either way, Visigoth pretty much HAS to be the GA. The wolves can't maul Cato (or Cam, it turns out) because they need us alive to scapegoat to the end. So, as long as Cato keeps his mouth shut, Visigoth is safe. The moment Cato says "I am not the GA", the wolves know who is. Cato might have been biased: Visigoth's post to Smirker the day before made Cato suspect that already.

In hindsight, Cam might have been the GA. Cam had just been lynched for not role-claiming. Cato thinks Cam would have learned his lesson. Cato had already written Cam off as a wolf.

Either way, Cato thinks keeping Cato's mouth shut was the safe move.


MEM wrote:I can think of very few reasons why I was able to survive this long since claiming the Miller.

Cato thinks this is just hubris, but might be a wolf. Cato sees a seer, a vote manipulator, and a seer-confirmed human (and GA) mauled since MEM claimed Miller. Cato wonders if MEM has even one reason why "Miller" would be mauled before any of these?

Cato sees that a tie is doom today, if Crassus is Liar. Cato thinks Crassus is probably Liar. Cato thinks the vote needs to be 3-1.

Cato votes for Crassus, but Cato does not lock. Cato wants this to be right.
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 10 Mar 2015, 22:54:44

Sure, if you were human, and believed that Rictus and I were both human liars, it would look like Visigoth was the GA back on Day 6. But clearly, from the actual wolves' point of view, it wouldn't have been a sealed deal. You can't argue "since I knew (based on incorrect premises) that Visigoth was GA, the wolves would have mauled him Day 6," as you were saying yesterday. You already had enough information to know that wasn't right. Perhaps you're getting your story tangled a bit?

I asked necklessone in PM. I didn't see the need to dump all that to the thread when I was clearly not going to be the maul. Like I said, there was still one maul to sit through to wait for any signs I was wrong, and my certainty relies on knowing I'm human.

Lastly -- not that there's any way for it to be confirmed, but I actually can't do any vote-manipulation. Yesterday either. That went away when we got down to 6 or fewer people. And before then I didn't want to use it because my next manipulation had to be +1 to my vote, and after that I would only have -1 to self. If I put out the +1 just to demonstrate I was telling the truth about being a Liar, I wouldn't be able to affect the vote unless I was a lynch candidate, which I haven't been since rekard died. Not that it matters, as I've been saying several times, being a Liar doesn't make me an automatic human.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 10 Mar 2015, 23:04:42

[+] Day 1
7-zark-7 : 3 : Rictus, Pompey, Cam_Chase
Blindsniper83 : 3 : Crassus, Smirker, 7-zark-7
Pompey : 3 : rekard, Snake, Mister E. Meat
RaveBomb : 2 : Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth
Caesar : 1 : That PJ
Cato : 1 : Caesar
Iron Clad Burrito : 1 : Meta4
Meta4 : 1 : RaveBomb
Okaros : 1 : Ryvvn
Rictus : 1 : Cato
Ryvvn : 1 : Omega
Snake : 1 : Okaros

No vote recorded (1) : Blindsniper83


[+] Day 2
Blindsniper83 : 4 : Ryvvn, That PJ, Cato, Cam_Chase
Ryvvn : 4 : Snake, Blindsniper83, Omega, Smirker
Cam_Chase : 3 : Okaros, Rictus, 7-zark-7
Meta4 : 3 : RaveBomb, Crassus, Visigoth
Crassus : 2 : rekard, Caesar
Mister E. Meat : 1 : Meta4
Omega : 1 : Iron Clad Burrito
RaveBomb : 1 : Mister E. Meat

Ryvvn loses the coinflip.


[+] Day 3
Meta4 : 4 : RaveBomb, Omega, Crassus, Cam_Chase
rekard : 2 : Smirker, Rictus
Rictus : 2 : Cato, Mister E. Meat
Smirker : 2 : Iron Clad Burrito, Blindsniper83
Caesar : 1 : Visigoth
Cam_Chase : 1 : Snake
Crassus : 1 : That PJ
Mister E. Meat : 1 : Okaros
Okaros : 1 : Caesar
Visigoth : 1 : rekard

No vote recorded (1) : Meta4


[+] Day 4
rekard : 6 : Smirker, Snake, Okaros, Crassus, Mister E. Meat, That PJ
Crassus : 4 : Cato, Cam_Chase, Blindsniper83, rekard
Cam_Chase : 2 : Visigoth, Rictus
Smirker : 1 : Caesar

No vote recorded (1) : Omega


[+] Day 5
Blindsniper83 : 6 : Mister E. Meat, Cato, Snake, Smirker, Cam_Chase, Omega
Cam_Chase : 6 : That PJ, Crassus, Visigoth, Caesar, Rictus
Cato : 1 : Blindsniper83


[+] Day 6
Snake : 5 : That PJ, Rictus, Cato, Visigoth, Mister E. Meat
Cato : 3 : Omega, Snake, Cam_Chase
That PJ : 1 : Crassus


[+] Day 6
Cam_Chase : 5 : Crassus, That PJ, Cato, Rictus, Visigoth
Cato : 2 : Omega, Cam_Chase

No vote recorded (1) : Mister E. Meat


[+] Day 6
Omega : 5 : Crassus, Mister E. Meat, That PJ, Omega, Visigoth
Crassus : 1 : Cato

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 10 Mar 2015, 23:05:46

Shit if it doesn't look just incredibly suspicious all of a sudden that MEM being a wolf would mean that everyone who killed the first human on Day 1 was turned into a wolf.

I mean, really. Really really suspicious.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 10 Mar 2015, 23:26:49

Unlocked. Tell me if you think I'm insane to be considering this. MEM's the only other reasonable candidate for wolf.

I also went back looking for any subtle mentions of millers, and there's only one that I found. From yesterday's OP, Mister Miller is mentioned at the feast.

But really this sudden suspicion is mostly based on the promise of a twist, and I can't think of any good reason that waiting one day to assign wolves is a meaningful twist worthy of its own game. But suddenly this fits.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby That PJ » 11 Mar 2015, 03:48:58

I'd feel better about what you were saying, Crassus, if there were any sort of tangible proof that you're an actual Liar (and not just, you know, a liar). So you're saying your vote manipulation alternates from -1 to +1 to -1 etc., and you only exercised that first option?

I looked at Day 1 like that, too, but I can't figure out how the other two wolves factor into that twist. If it isn't all of them on one target, why bother? Why Caesar and Omega?
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Mister E. Meat » 11 Mar 2015, 07:48:32

Why would I claim to be miller, a role that we know is in the game, may I add a role that was not counterclaimed, if I were a wolf? Smirker was already a dead man walking. There was no reason not to keep my mouth shut except that it's true. It's not like Smirker is going to seer me as a wolf and then I'm going to have to justify that.

Let's look at it from the point of view that I'm lying. I claim miller. Someone counterclaims miller. They're lynched and show up as the miller. Then I'm lynched and I'm a wolf. 1 human for 1 wolf never is in the best interest of the wolves unless there's a good chance that I was already going to be lynched. That was not the case, in this game I've never been in danger at all.

And Cato - I've been defending you since Sunday. I've had no opinion on Crassus. It's possible that I survived just out of luck but it's also possible that I survived because I was defending you. And it's certainly possible that I'm reading more into the situation than is warranted but I have to go with my gut here and my gut tells me that I wasn't mauled after soft-claiming human because I had defended a wolf.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Cato » 11 Mar 2015, 09:49:21

Cato is split on MEM.

Cato thinks MEM is human:
Cato thought maybe there was a case against MEM. Cato thought: All these claimed humans to maul, Miller-claim is possible. Wolves have to kill Seer and confirmed human and Liars. The risk would be if Cato or Cam died as Miller. Then Cato look again. MEM claim Miller one day before everyone else claimed. It makes no sense to have false Miller claim there, before many people claimed. Before wolf maul list was focused on others.

Cato thinks MEM is wolf:
Cato thinks choosing wolves off of Day 1 votes is strange. But Cato think to last necklessone game, when necklessone used Perpetual List. Cato thinks this might be something necklessone would do. It also makes no sense to Cato that Miller knows who Miller is.

Overall, Cato thinks MEM-is-human more than Cato thinks MEM-is-wolf. Cato stays on Crassus.
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Cato » 11 Mar 2015, 09:52:07

Win or lose, Cato will be happy tomorrow. Cato can stop talking in third person tomorrow. Cato thinks Cato is not choosing posting style ever again.
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 11 Mar 2015, 09:55:22

All right. I guess maybe I was a little overly paranoid last night. I still expect there was some reason that the wolves started a day late. Not "just because." But perhaps it's not something we can see from here.

Re-lock on Cato.


That PJ wrote:I'd feel better about what you were saying, Crassus, if there were any sort of tangible proof that you're an actual Liar (and not just, you know, a liar). So you're saying your vote manipulation alternates from -1 to +1 to -1 etc., and you only exercised that first option?

I looked at Day 1 like that, too, but I can't figure out how the other two wolves factor into that twist. If it isn't all of them on one target, why bother? Why Caesar and Omega?

Yep. I could pick which one to start on, and didn't use it until I was in danger against rekard. I was sitting on the +1 because that's the useful one, and using it to prove my role seemed pointless compared to maybe being able to use it productively.

My theory, if we're still talking about it, is that the game may have originally planned to have two days of wolf selection through the lynch. If you look at the signup / rules threads, they talk about revealing role information on Day 3. But that actually happened on Day 2, and not even as part of the normal processing. It could have been a mid-flight change. In that case, the remaining two wolves would have just been randomly assigned, or something.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby That PJ » 11 Mar 2015, 10:59:06

Crassus wrote:
That PJ wrote:I'd feel better about what you were saying, Crassus, if there were any sort of tangible proof that you're an actual Liar (and not just, you know, a liar). So you're saying your vote manipulation alternates from -1 to +1 to -1 etc., and you only exercised that first option?

Yep. I could pick which one to start on, and didn't use it until I was in danger against rekard. I was sitting on the +1 because that's the useful one, and using it to prove my role seemed pointless compared to maybe being able to use it productively.

My theory, if we're still talking about it, is that the game may have originally planned to have two days of wolf selection through the lynch. If you look at the signup / rules threads, they talk about revealing role information on Day 3. But that actually happened on Day 2, and not even as part of the normal processing. It could have been a mid-flight change. In that case, the remaining two wolves would have just been randomly assigned, or something.

When did you find out you couldn't use the vote manipulation at 6 players or less? Because if you knew you were going to lose it, using it before then to prove your claim seems like the absolutely most productive thing you could've done with it.
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 11 Mar 2015, 11:39:44

Day 2. Why the heck is this so important? Being a Liar or not does not dictate whether or not I'm a wolf. I think you're really relying on metagame too much. There are tons of other cues you could be considering. Like if I was actually a lone wolf, it sure as heck looked like I could cruise through to a Cato lynch given how things are going and MEM's locked vote. Why would I bother with anything more than a vote, lock, and leave for the rest of the day?

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby That PJ » 11 Mar 2015, 12:21:53

Crassus wrote:Day 2. Why the heck is this so important? Being a Liar or not does not dictate whether or not I'm a wolf. I think you're really relying on metagame too much. There are tons of other cues you could be considering. Like if I was actually a lone wolf, it sure as heck looked like I could cruise through to a Cato lynch given how things are going and MEM's locked vote. Why would I bother with anything more than a vote, lock, and leave for the rest of the day?

You just made a case for MEM being the last wolf because of arbitrary Day 1 whim, and I'm getting too metagame?

I trouble I have is that there's no proof at all that you're the role you claim to be, and that role is being used--even if you deny it--as a humanizing element. I did it myself when I was planning my vig shot, looking at the non-claimers (still a good decision, I think). But when you've been called out twice to show evidence and both times refuse to do it, even when you no longer have any other useful use for the vote manipulation... it looks really suspicious. And if you are lying about being a Liar, you are definitely lying about being human. It is a non-trivial detail to me.

It's not the only angle I'm considering, but it is one I'm thinking about. Just like I've taken serious looks at Day 1 and the Day 1 flavor text and even the order of mauls and lynches last game trying to find patterns in case the wolves were decided that way.

Tell me you wouldn't do the same as a human faced with matching role claims, one of which isn't validated.
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 11 Mar 2015, 12:32:36

You just made a case for MEM being the last wolf because of arbitrary Day 1 whim, and I'm getting too metagame?

I expected that comment. Yes. I've made my bed and I'll lie in it, my vote's locked for good or ill, not on MEM. I wanted input on whether I was getting too crazy, and I got it. Not even Cato thought it was worth pursuing, so it's not pursued.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby necklessone » 11 Mar 2015, 12:38:40

Cato : 2 : Crassus, Mister E. Meat
Crassus : 1 : Cato

No vote recorded (2) : That PJ, Secret Third Faction

Blue votes are locked.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Crassus » 11 Mar 2015, 12:43:19

But when you've been called out twice to show evidence and both times refuse to do it, even when you no longer have any other useful use for the vote manipulation... it looks really suspicious.

Wait, when are you talking about?

In addition, I think it's kind of silly to declare what use I might or might not have for my power. In the role description I was told other Liars may have different restrictions on their powers. Not using or thoroughly describing my power could be valuable simply because it left the wolves wondering whether my rules were different from rekard's. And of course that's in addition to over-use of powers like this doing more harm than good to the human side in many games.

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby That PJ » 11 Mar 2015, 12:50:49

Crassus wrote:
But when you've been called out twice to show evidence and both times refuse to do it, even when you no longer have any other useful use for the vote manipulation... it looks really suspicious.

Wait, when are you talking about?

In addition, I think it's kind of silly to declare what use I might or might not have for my power. In the role description I was told other Liars may have different restrictions on their powers. Not using or thoroughly describing my power could be valuable simply because it left the wolves wondering whether my rules were different from rekard's. And of course that's in addition to over-use of powers like this doing more harm than good to the human side in many games.

Day 7 (suspicion cast by me and followed up by Rictus, albeit the 'ask him to prove it' was indirect). This would've been your last opportunity to use the power.
Day 8 (Cato suggested you use it, though by your account you'd lost the ability by then).

You can think it's silly all you want, and you may honestly have just not decided to use your necklessone-given power, but simply using it would've gone a long way to proving your claim, with exactly 0 downside. And since you didn't, I have doubts.

Not that it appears to matter with two locked votes. I either turn this into a coinflip or follow the two of you onto Cato.
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Mister E. Meat » 11 Mar 2015, 13:10:04

PJ, if you feel really strongly that I'm making a mistake, I'm willing to discuss changing my vote. I don't think it's the right call but we can discuss it. To me Crassus just feels human. This just seems like too much BS for someone to come up with on the spur of the moment.
Crassus wrote:In addition, I think it's kind of silly to declare what use I might or might not have for my power. In the role description I was told other Liars may have different restrictions on their powers. Not using or thoroughly describing my power could be valuable simply because it left the wolves wondering whether my rules were different from rekard's. And of course that's in addition to over-use of powers like this doing more harm than good to the human side in many games.


What happens when you get this late is that you start thinking all sorts of crazy things. "What if PJ really is a lone wolf who shot the other wolf just to get human cred?" That thought has seriously gone through my mind several times. Then I think about what an awful move that would have been for you since you could have just shot a human and won, or not shot and probably won. And the fact that you haven't locked on Cato also means that you can't be the wolf because if you were, you'd have voted Cato, locked and won.

So there's no question that you're human to me which is why I'm willing to have a discussion about why you think that Cato is not the right call. I've said above why I think he is. I know that a large part of it is my gut feeling but I did state the reasons, weak as they may be. But the most important reason to me right now is that Crassus feels more human about this. And maybe I'm getting snowed and this is Mortus all over again where I chose wrong but at least I'll get to endgame more often :oops:

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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby That PJ » 11 Mar 2015, 13:26:42

No, you've a solid point there. I backed off from the noise and went back to looking over the day threads, votes, and timing--the basics. Crassus does not make for a particularly convincing wolf when looked at that way. The Liar bit still really bothers me, but I also have trouble believing rekard wouldn't try everything in his power to negate his imminent demise, including a vote manipulation power so... that's sufficiently plausible.

Which leaves me with Cato.

Not locked, because I want to let thoughts sit on my commute home, but he was the other candidate for getting shot on Vig Day, so there was sufficient cause to suspect him in the first place.
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby Cato » 11 Mar 2015, 15:53:44

Cato has made his statements. Cato does not have anything more to add. Cato will lock his vote.
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby That PJ » 11 Mar 2015, 16:12:05

Lock.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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necklessone
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Re: Day 9: The Final Day

Postby necklessone » 11 Mar 2015, 16:17:59

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