Day 4: Dark Waters

The wizard's natural habitat.
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Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 11 Aug 2013, 20:29:30

Ridcully carefully counted out the votes once more. This ritual had gotten to be. . . complex. The Archchancellor didn't much care for complexity, beyond that displayed by certain flavors of tobacco. It had been a quiet day today; the committee was starting to get discouraged. There was whispering in the corners everywhere he looked.

The tally verified, Ridcully simply picked up his crossbow, pointed, and oh-so-gently squeezed the trigger.

In the mere moments that the bolt left the bow, however, 7-Zark-7's innate survival instincts kicked in. Nothing but a pair of fluffy slippers marked the spot where he had been but a mere second before. There wasn't that much room to run within the Banquet Hall, but the rag-doll wizard managed to fill all of that space.

Ridcully's under-the-breath mutter of disapproval was drowned out by the gasp of air leaving Mortus' lungs. The feathered quarrel jutted out of his chest. Moments later, he collapsed.

Stibbons, after a moment of stunned silence, walked over to Mortus and, once more, ruffled through the robes of the recently deceased. He gasped in shock as he raised up a sapphire, shot through with dark veins that seemed to pulse with a life of their own.

"Shark!" the skinny young mage gasped out. He dropped the gem to the floor as the darkness flowed out of the gem and drained away. Moments later, the gem flared brightly and, ever so slowly lifted off the ground, encircling Ponder's head once before shimmering into non-existence.

"Ah, no. Erm. Trout?"

--

The Senior Wrangler had a fire in him, ever since a certain trip to Ecks Ecks Ecks Ecks. It burned through him every day, with a passion that he hadn't known since he learned his first magic spell at the tender age of fifteen. He couldn't help think about her, the curve of her bosom, the wiggle of her chins. He noticed that she had made his favorite dish again, Snausage In A Bun. He simply couldn't focus on the wizarding as much, letting his fellow Faculty handle the day-to-day issues. He also couldn't seem to focus on the dagger sticking out of his back.

Ionitor never made it to the Banquet Hall for breakfast. Ridcully sent a page off to find him, but you assumed the worst.

--

Mortus - Corrupted Wizard: Water (Trout corrupted to Shark)
Ionitor - The Senior Wrangler:
The Senior Wrangler is madly in love with Mrs. Whitlow, and little beknownst to him, she is in love with him. Their votes on one another will always have a -1 reduction, and if they vote together, they will have a +1 benefit. If the Senior Wrangler receives any Fire powers, they are enhanced.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 11 Aug 2013, 20:30:12

7-Zark-7 - 8 - Ozymandias, necklessone, RaveBomb, Iron Clad Burrito, Anzig, +3 Power
Mortus - 5 - rekard, sphenodont, Ryvvn, Mister E. Meat, + 1 Power
sphenodont - 5 - Ionitor, stigmata, Hellheart, FurinMirado, +1 Power
dferrantino - 2 - Smirker, AugenVonSauron
Mister E. Meat - 3 - Meta4, Omega, +1 Power
Visigoth - 2 - San, Wasabi
Wasabi - 2 - Visigoth, Anvilfang
Hellheart - 1 - Aldax
Smirker - 1 - Clearasday
Ozymandias - 1 - 7-Zark-7


[+] Vote History
rekard votes for Mortus
Ryvvn votes for rekard (retracted)
Smirker votes for dferrantino
Meta4 votes for Mister E. Meat
Ionitor votes for sphenodont
San votes for Visigoth
Visigoth votes for Wasabi
Ozymandias votes for 7-Zark-7
AugenVonSauron votes for dferrantino
necklessone votes for 7-Zark-7
RaveBomb votes for 7-Zark-7
Anvilfang votes for Wasabi
FurinMirado votes for Mortus (retracted)
stigmata votes for sphenodont
Hellheart votes for Visigoth (retracted)
Omega votes for Mister E. Meat
Iron Clad Burrito votes for 7-Zark-7
Anzig votes for 7-Zark-7
Aldax votes for Hellheart
Wasabi votes for Visigoth
Clearasday votes for Smirker
Hellheart votes for sphenodont
FurinMirado votes for sphenodont
7-Zark-7 votes for sphenodont (retracted)
sphenodont votes for Mortus
7-Zark-7 votes for Ozymandias
Ryvvn votes for Mortus
Mister E. Meat votes for Mortus


There was a tie, which was resolved randomly.

e: Huh, guess this is the Day thread, eh?

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Omega » 11 Aug 2013, 20:35:09

Well of course, Mortus is a wolf.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Hellheart » 11 Aug 2013, 20:39:08

Oh Rincewind, Lady Luck has favored you once again.

To be honest, I was extremely suspicious about the late votes on Mortus...and he turns out to be a wolf. Well done!

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Smirker » 11 Aug 2013, 20:40:22

Omega wrote:Well of course, Mortus is a wolf.

I must admit, it is also amusing that Mortus is sharks... ;)
Last edited by Smirker on 11 Aug 2013, 21:54:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Anvilfang » 11 Aug 2013, 20:43:04

So it looks like Zark had some sort of invincibility spell cast on him? or an innate protection power?

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby rekard » 11 Aug 2013, 20:43:28

This is what happens when you go for a tie. You get lynched. It wasn't the first time a wolf does that in a sort of jokey manner, and won't be the last. I'll take credit for this one. Thank you very much. Would two wolves make a similar pattern in one game? We'll see.

Let's poke at was ICB. Retracted for now
Last edited by rekard on 12 Aug 2013, 19:42:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 11 Aug 2013, 20:44:13

Hellheart wrote:Oh Rincewind, Lady Luck has favored you once again.

So Zark is Rincewind? Were the fluffy slipppers a clue?

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 11 Aug 2013, 20:48:16

"Corrupted Wizard" = "WOLF".

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Omega » 11 Aug 2013, 20:51:14

DastardlyOldMan wrote:"Corrupted Wizard" = "WOLF".


Or does that mean converted... I knew there were vampires here.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 11 Aug 2013, 20:52:31

((And all power PMs have been sent.))

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Hellheart » 11 Aug 2013, 21:15:07

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Oh Rincewind, Lady Luck has favored you once again.

So Zark is Rincewind? Were the fluffy slipppers a clue?

Rincewind's one skill is running. He's really, really good at running. In fact, his entire life is a series of events where he almost dies, usually as a result of running from something equally as fatal. Since Twoflower left early in the Discworld series, the Luggage has followed Rincewind.

Personal lynch immunity E: avoidance was one of the potential non-elemental powers mentioned, and it's pretty much the only thing Rincewind is good at ;)
Last edited by Hellheart on 11 Aug 2013, 22:31:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Mister E. Meat » 11 Aug 2013, 21:31:28

DastardlyOldMan wrote:e: Huh, guess this is the Day thread, eh?

DOM :D


Edit: obv not DOM, never DOM. DOM is nice and would never threaten anyone with a WOG* just for making a joke.


* He didn't
Last edited by Mister E. Meat on 12 Aug 2013, 12:57:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Omega » 11 Aug 2013, 22:53:10

Gonna have to sketch out the movements of votes in and out of the bandwagons the last couple days.

In the mean time, I've got nothing to do but eat some lemon cakes.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Hellheart » 11 Aug 2013, 23:07:12

Omega wrote:Gonna have to sketch out the movements of votes in and out of the bandwagons the last couple days.

In the mean time, I've got nothing to do but eat some lemon cakes.

Something bothers me about this last set of bandwagons, but because I'm a newbie I'd rather let more experienced players chip in before I say something dumb.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Omega » 11 Aug 2013, 23:07:57

Hellheart wrote:
Omega wrote:Gonna have to sketch out the movements of votes in and out of the bandwagons the last couple days.

In the mean time, I've got nothing to do but eat some lemon cakes.

Something bothers me about this last set of bandwagons, but because I'm a newbie I'd rather let more experienced players chip in before I say something dumb.


I've been here since day 1 and I still say plenty of dumb things :lol:

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 11 Aug 2013, 23:21:48

I am going to once again put the first vote on Stigmata, for the following reasons:

(1) From a game balance perspective, I think it would be VERY unfair to give two potential lynch-stealing Non-Elemental Roles (The Librarian + Rincewind) both to Humans. And since Zark switching his vote from sphenodont to me (I'm so glad I managed to annoy him :mrgreen: ) directly resulted in Mortus' death, I think stigmata is much more likely to be a Wolf.

(2) On Day 1, Ravebomb had the lynch lead for much of the day. So I think it's pretty likely that either (a) one of the players who voted for him (Nitestorm, twdog, stigmata, Zark) is a Wolf, or (b) Rave himself is a Wolf. But of course Nitestorm and twdog were Human, and as just mentioned Zark is also very likely Human. So that means either stigmata or Ravebomb is probably a Wolf.

(3) On Day 2, after Ionitor revealed that he was Senior Wrangler, three players immediately switched their votes off of Ionitor: Wasabi, Omega, and Hellheart. But right after that, stigmata switched his vote ONTO Ionitor. Why would he do that? I think the Wolves REALLY wanted Ionitor dead, as evidenced by Mortus' late Day 2 vote (and of course last night's maul).

(4) On Day 3, given that Mortus was in lynch danger, I think it's highly likely that a Wolf voted for sphenodont, and stigmata is much more suspicious to me than either Hellheart or Furin.

(5) Lastly, I suspect that stigmata may only be able to knock the FIRST player who votes for him unconscious, and if so I want to be in that position once again so that I can avoid the maul. You snooze you lose :mrgreen: :mrgreen:
Last edited by Ozymandias on 12 Aug 2013, 08:48:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ryvvn » 11 Aug 2013, 23:27:32

Omega wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
Omega wrote:Gonna have to sketch out the movements of votes in and out of the bandwagons the last couple days.

In the mean time, I've got nothing to do but eat some lemon cakes.

Something bothers me about this last set of bandwagons, but because I'm a newbie I'd rather let more experienced players chip in before I say something dumb.


I've been here since day 1 and I still say plenty of dumb things :lol:


I'd be interested in hearing what you're thinking; if it turns out to be inconsistent with available data or sounder theories, I'm sure you'll be corrected in a gentle manner (read: not of a bold or striking color).

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Hellheart » 11 Aug 2013, 23:58:46

Okay, I suppose I can try to sound like I have some idea of what I'm doing.

The only reason I feel like any of this is of significant importance comes from this (colored for emphasis):
DastardlyOldMan wrote:7-Zark-7 - 8 - Ozymandias, necklessone, RaveBomb, Iron Clad Burrito, Anzig, +3 Power


Zark was the only person who voted for Ozy yesterday, so if Ozy had a 3-revenge-vote power, everything below probably makes a lot less sense. If there's some other odd (confirmed human) source for those 3 votes, then once again it pretty much voids what I have below.

Ionitor didn't vote for Zark, so I doubt the +3 votes were from 3 separate sources. It's more likely that the votes were from a single source. But that begs the question: who would drop 3 votes on the guy that's already leading by one? It could theoretically have been anyone, but the most likely culprits are sphenodont and Mortus, who were both in second place. One vote behind 1st place is incredibly precarious - power votes seem to be very common, especially of the +1 variety. Mortus was a very late 2nd place, but I think the decision to drop the votes on Zark was made before then (because, again, everything below makes no sense if the power was applied after voting ended).

Let's work on the assumption that the source of the 3 extra votes on Zark came from a wolf. Under this assumption, Mortus need not have been the source of the voting power - it could have been any wolf, and if Mortus wasn't lynched he could safely claim that he used the power to save himself. Since Mortus was a wolf (and sphenodont could be one as well, but he doesn't need to be for this to make sense), I feel like this is a scenario that's worth looking at. If those 3 votes did come from a wolf, the wolves would know that Zark would end up with 8 votes before other powers came into play, which is 4-6 votes higher than any other player. It's highly unlikely that some other power would add enough votes to put anyone else in danger. This is particularly true if cheese is the voting element: we've already lost one cheese element, and +3 votes sounds like the sort of power that would require two cheese elements. That would leave only two others out there, and they would both have to target the same player.

In this scenario, the wolves know they have a guaranteed human lynch. This sounds like a great opportunity to build up some human credibility by voting for a wolf. Anzig's vote for Zark is the cutoff point (5+3 for Zark, 2 for everyone else), so anything after that would be fair game. That does include my own switch to Sphenodont, although I stand behind that switch because the two votes on him were Rictus and Ionitor, which I both felt were confirmed humans. I was baffled by the two very late votes for Mortus in particular; all other reasoning aside, that's a very safe bandwagon to join and, as mentioned before, it'd be a recorded vote for a wolf.

Does this make any real sense, or am I reading too much into this? :P

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 00:22:41

Hellheart wrote:So if Ozy had a 3-revenge-vote power, everything below probably makes a lot less sense. If there's some other odd (confirmed human) source for those 3 votes, then once again it pretty much voids what I have below.

Actually, I did use a power yesterday that was ultimately responsible for the three additional votes on Zark (though it wasn't a revenge-vote power).

Hellheart wrote:But that begs the question: who would drop 3 votes on the guy that's already leading by one?

That would be me-- it may seem excessive, but since I could only use the power yesterday, I didn't see any reason not to use it.

Hellheart wrote:This is particularly true if cheese is the voting element: we've already lost one cheese element, and +3 votes sounds like the sort of power that would require two cheese elements.

Based on the PM, it was a power resulting from being targeted by Earth, Fire, AND Cheese (which I, as the Head Cook, have an affinity for-- much like Senior Wrangler had an affinity for Fire).

Hellheart wrote:That would leave only two others out there, and they would both have to target the same player.

Why do you think there were initially only three Cheese Elementals? I've been assuming that there were probably four, just like the other Elementals.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Aug 2013, 00:39:04

Ozymandias wrote:Based on the PM, it was a power resulting from being targeted by Earth, Fire, AND Cheese (which I, as the Head Cook, have an affinity for-- much like Senior Wrangler had an affinity for Fire).


I'm wondering if you can clarify something for me, I know you can't quote PM text but are you saying that from flavor text in the start of Day 3's power PM you were able to deduce being target by Earth, Fire, and Cheese on from Night 2's targetings?

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 00:44:16

Ryvvn wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Based on the PM, it was a power resulting from being targeted by Earth, Fire, AND Cheese (which I, as the Head Cook, have an affinity for-- much like Senior Wrangler had an affinity for Fire).


I'm wondering if you can clarify something for me, I know you can't quote PM text but are you saying that from flavor text in the start of Day 3's power PM you were able to deduce being target by Earth, Fire, and Cheese on from Night 2's targetings?

I believe so, yes.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Hellheart » 12 Aug 2013, 01:05:35

Ozymandias wrote:Why do you think there were initially only three Cheese Elementals? I've been assuming that there were probably four, just like the other Elementals.

Under the assumption that the +3 vote power was the result of 2 cheese elements, this leaves E: 3 2 to work with. twdog's death removes one of those, leaving only E: two one. Your cheese affinity throws that all for a loop.

EDIT: For some reason I wasn't counting the 5 non-elemental humans in my tally. So yes, 4 of each element, which would leave one to work with after twdog's death. For some reason I was thinking 5 of each (5x5 = 25, +5 shadows, +1 non-elemental wolf)

That certainly throws out all of my reasoning, unless of course Ozy is a wolf :P

Is it possible that every non-elemental (save the non-elemental wolf) has an affinity for an element? If we're working with 6 non-elementals, one of which is a wolf, that leaves 5 non-elementals...one for each element.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 01:11:51

Hellheart wrote:Is it possible that every non-elemental (save the non-elemental wolf) has an affinity for an element? If we're working with 6 non-elementals, one of which is a wolf, that leaves 5 non-elementals...one for each element.

I had that thought as well.

Stigmata and Zark, care to comment on whether either of you have an affinity to a particular element?

You don't have to say which one ...

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby San » 12 Aug 2013, 04:14:58

Ahem.

I can most irrefutably, unequivocally, undeniably, without a shadow of a doubt, without the slightest hesitation, say that I did not receive any pudding yesterday.

I totally blame AugenVonSauron for this.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Aug 2013, 04:35:34

So the following scenario sounds reasonable:

Air - 4 Pure, 1 Shadow
Earth - 4 Pure, 1 Shadow
Fire - 4 Pure, 1 Shadow
Water - 4 Pure, 1 Shadow
Cheese - 4 Pure, 1 Shadow
Non-Elemental - 5 Pure (One Affinity for Each Element), 1 Shadow

Factoring in the deaths that leaves us:

Air - 4 Pure, 1 Shadow
Earth - 2 Pure, 1 Shadow
Fire - 4 Pure, 1 Shadow
Water - 3 Pure
Cheese - 3 Pure, 1 Shadow
Non-Elemental - 1 Pure (Air Affinity), 1 Pure (Earth Affinity), 1 Pure (Water Affinity), 1 Pure (Cheese Affinity - Ozy), 1 Shadow

So tonight we have a slightly increased chance of Seers and Vigilantes with a slightly decreased chance of backfiring abilities. If anyone receives an ability that only describes water then they can be fairly confident it will not backfire.


Yesterday my only lead was that Mortus and stigmata had voted for humans two days in a row (I was fairly sure Ionitor was human). The same is true for Hellheart, but I believe he is human so I wasn't sure if this theory was really valid. Now it turns out Mortus was a wolf and Ozy's reasoning for stigmata seems sound.

The only thing that keeps me from voting for stigmata is that Mortus and stigmata voted together on Days 1 and 2 which is not something wolves would do.


I'm very curious about the Non-Elementals. Ozy, Zark and Stigmata claim to be non-elementals and should have some affinity. That leaves 2 unknowns. It might benefit us to know who they all are and what Affinity they claim. One of them is likely a Corrupted Wizard. If everyone comes forward and 2 people claim the same affinity then one of them may be a Corrupted Wizard. The downside being that we're basically telling the wolves "don't worry about these people, they can't give out special powers, you can focus on a smaller group".


I have a similar theory surrounding those with Earth powers. We are likely looking at 2 remaining Pure wizards and 1 Corrupted Wizard. If everyone with Earth powers comes forward then we have a 1 in 3 chance of lynching a Corrupted Wizard by going through that list.


That's all I have time for right now. Feel free to pick these apart. I'll try to circle back here on my lunch break.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Smirker » 12 Aug 2013, 05:58:08

*Smirker eats a breakfast bowl of sugar-frosted chocolate bombs with a side of Hen-Wen bacon*

I'd like to say for the record that dferrantino is still setting off my mental alarms something fierce; but for today I feel a more prudent move is to vote for REDACTED (Ozymandias). For him to have not been mauled this long is odd, and adding in that his stated oppossite WAS mauled instead makes it more dangerous if he really was the lover and a wolf because often in the later Lover variants the surviving lover gets a vigilante shot.
Last edited by Smirker on 12 Aug 2013, 19:07:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby stigmata » 12 Aug 2013, 06:12:15

Ozymandias wrote:I am going to once again put the first vote on Stigmata, for the following reasons:

(1) From a game balance perspective, I think it would be VERY unfair to give two potential lynch-stealing Non-Elemental Roles (The Librarian + Rincewind) both to Humans. And since Zark switching his vote from sphenodont to me (I'm so glad I managed to annoy him :mrgreen: ) directly resulted in Mortus' death, I think stigmata is much more likely to be a Wolf.

(2) On Day 1, Ravebomb had the lynch lead for much of the day. So I think it's pretty likely that either (a) one of the players who voted for him (Nitestorm, twdog, stigmata, Zark) is a Wolf, or (b) Rave himself is a Wolf. But of course Nitestorm and twdog were Human, and as just mentioned Zark is also very likely Human. So that means either stigmata or Ravebomb is probably a Wolf.

(3) On Day 2, after Ionitor revealed that he was Senior Wrangler, three players immediately switched their votes off of Ionitor: Wasabi, Omega, and Hellheart. But right after that, stigmata switched his vote ONTO Ionitor. Why would he do that? I think the Wolves REALLY wanted Ionitor dead, as evidenced by Mortus' late Day 2 vote (and of course last night's maul).

(4) On Day 3, given that Mortus was in lynch danger, I think it's highly likely that a Wolf voted for sphenodont, and stigmata is much more suspicious to me than either Hellheart or Furin.

(5) Lastly, I suspect that stigmata may only be able to knock the FIRST player who votes for him unconscious, and if so I want to be in that position once again so that I can avoid the maul. You snooze you lose :mrgreen: :mrgreen:


Largely OOC because I have to go to work in about 20 minutes, ook ook and all that, but: You're wrong on every point. I'm not going to go through all of them, but I can reveal that I have an affinity to a normal Element (not hard to work out at all) but I do not have a word that I can use on anyone. Only one person has used any word on me, once, and it fizzled when I tried to use it so it's had a net zero effect on the game so far.

So there you go.

And for what it's worth, I am unable to beat you up today, Ozy. Even in self-defence.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby dferrantino » 12 Aug 2013, 06:19:12

Smirker wrote:*Smirker eats a breakfast bowl of sugar-frosted chocolate bombs with a side of Hen-Wen bacon*

I'd like to say for the record that dferrantino is still setting off my mental alarms something fierce; but for today I feel a more prudent move is to vote for Ozymandias. For him to have not been mauled this long is odd, and adding in that his stated oppossite WAS mauled instead makes it more dangerous if he really was the lover and a wolf because often in the later Lover variants the surviving lover gets a vigilante shot.

I'm sorry my one post a day has your alarms firing off. Don't know what to tell you.

Under normal circumstances, I'd agree with you re: Ozy & Ionitor (and indeed I mentioned it over the weekend). That said, in this case I don't. Given the clarification in the rules thread:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:Regarding PMs:

Note that PMs cannot be used to establish a means of ~semi-private communication beyond the day in which they are temporarily granted. No code words, hashes, or the like. You or the recipient can certainly drop references to the contents publicly, but you cannot coordinate those references ahead of time. "I agree" or "To the person who sent me the PM: Go to Hell" are valid; "Use the word "cheese" if you want to me to target the fifth player alphabetically" is not.

Unless you are explicitly told that you can reply to a PM, please assume that they are one-way. Any PM-communication should be limited to the day in which it is granted, unless you are explicitly told otherwise.

That sounds a lot like something Ozy would have done, and it sounds a lot like him trying to form a human alliance. I think in this case the wolves are just trying to frame him to get us to lynch him. You already know how unlikely it is for me to defend Ozy, so there it is.

Also, looks like I forgot to vote yesterday so I can't use my power. I still have no idea what it does :(

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby 7-zark-7 » 12 Aug 2013, 06:48:58

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Is it possible that every non-elemental (save the non-elemental wolf) has an affinity for an element? If we're working with 6 non-elementals, one of which is a wolf, that leaves 5 non-elementals...one for each element.

I had that thought as well.

Stigmata and Zark, care to comment on whether either of you have an affinity to a particular element?

You don't have to say which one ...


I can confirm that I have an affinity for one particular element. And it's not one that hit me last night.

Dferr's thoughts echo mine on Ozy. Although I was very suspicious when he asked if I had seered him as Human, I believe I understand his reason for asking publicly.

I can tell you I won't vote for Ozy today, nor tomorrow. Wednesday I may re-evaluate... Depends a bit on what's on the menu. For now, I need a drink... The floral clock in Quirm implies its 5 o'clock somewhere.

More in a bit,

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby RaveBomb » 12 Aug 2013, 08:05:39

(2) On Day 1, Ravebomb had the lynch lead for much of the day. So I think it's pretty likely that either (a) one of the players who voted for him (Nitestorm, twdog, stigmata, Zark) is a Wolf, or (b) Rave himself is a Wolf. But of course Nitestorm and twdog were Human, and as just mentioned Zark is also very likely Human. So that means either stigmata or Ravebomb is probably a Wolf.


I nearly ALWAYS have the vote lead early on. People swapped away from me when it was pointed out that I've been lynched in the last few games.

I am a standard elemental mage, but I'm still not sure about you, so Redacted (was Ozymandias ) for now. This will probably change, but we'll see.
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If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby stigmata » 12 Aug 2013, 08:43:03

I'm going for Ozymandias again. He's been gunning for me all game and, although it's hard to prove by the nature of the game, his analysis has been laughably bad so far despite his ridiculously high performance just a couple of games ago. I suspect he's trying to use his reputation as a vote-setter to confound the vote.

Ook.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 08:47:38

stigmata wrote:I'm not going to go through all of them, but I can reveal that I have an affinity to a normal Element (not hard to work out at all)

Well there are only three left: Earth, Air, and Water. Are you saying that you have an affinity for Earth, because orangutans like to roll around in the dirt?

7-zark-7 wrote:I can confirm that I have an affinity for one particular element. And it's not one that hit me last night.

Well, since your character name is Rincewind, I suppose your most likely affinity is Air?

Anyway, now that we've confirmed that all Non Elementals have affinities, here are some thoughts:

(A) I don't think we should try to lynch any player claiming to be a Non-Elemental--- UNLESS two such players claim the same Elemental affinity.

(B) For that reason, I will retract my vote from stigmata-- I'm still very suspicious of him, but I suppose he can wait until we know the identities and affinities of the other Non-Elementals.

(C) I don't think I should be a lynch candidate UNLESS another Non-Elemental comes forward to counter-claim my cheese affinity-- which I seriously doubt will happen, because I just demonstrated yesterday that I do in fact have such an affinity.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 08:55:49

RaveBomb wrote:I nearly ALWAYS have the vote lead early on. People swapped away from me when it was pointed out that I've been lynched in the last few games.

I know, that's what make you such an attractive target for Wolves.

And note that stigmata did NOT switch away from you until the very end of Day One.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 12 Aug 2013, 08:59:51, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 08:58:29

stigmata wrote:I'm going for Ozymandias again. He's been gunning for me all game and, although it's hard to prove by the nature of the game, his analysis has been laughably bad so far despite his ridiculously high performance just a couple of games ago. I suspect he's trying to use his reputation as a vote-setter to confound the vote.

I just proposed that Non-Elementals not be lynched until two come forward claiming the same Elemental affinity.

Do you see anything "laughably bad" about that analysis?

If not, will you retract your vote for me, like I did for you?

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Mister E. Meat » 12 Aug 2013, 09:09:24

I'm having a hard time seeing Ozy as corrupted, even with the whole "lovers" role. Based on day 1 voting, I said "It's highly likely that if stigmata is human then Ozy is as well." The fact that Ozy is pushing for stigmata lynch would actually cement Ozy either way in my mind. If stigmata is indeed a wolf, then Ozy is probably non-corrupted.* And if it turns out stigmata is non-corrupt, then it also actually gives some pretty strong evidence that Ozy is non-corrupt.

So to me, a lynch of stigmata will actually prove nothing about Ozy's position which is the most interesting to me right now. Lynching him would provide that information, but of course it has it's own downsides.

I'm going to have to see if there's anyone else that I can see whose removal would provide some insight into Ozy.


*Yes, there could be a long con going on but if Ozy is still alive on day 8 or whatever I can't imagine that he wouldn't be strung up.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 09:11:02

Smirker wrote:I'd like to say for the record that dferrantino is still setting off my mental alarms something fierce; but for today I feel a more prudent move is to vote for Ozymandias. For him to have not been mauled this long is odd, and adding in that his stated oppossite WAS mauled instead makes it more dangerous if he really was the lover and a wolf because often in the later Lover variants the surviving lover gets a vigilante shot.

So let me get this straight-- you're suggesting that:

(A) I am a Wolf with a Lover role who decided to publicly announce that I was a Lover early on Day 1-- even though I knew I had a Human counterpart?

(B) Who, by the way, for all I knew, could have had something in their Role PM implying that their Lover was not Human?

(C) My fellow Wolves then decided to maul my Human lover, thereby making me look even more suspicious, just on the off chance that I would get a vig shot?

(D) Which, if I actually used on a Human in the Day thread, would surely result in my getting insta-lynched?

Seriously?

C'mon, mauling Ionitor was obviously a pathetically transparent ploy on the Wolves' part to try to get me lynched today. Please don't fall for it.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Aug 2013, 09:28:52

Ozymandias wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Based on the PM, it was a power resulting from being targeted by Earth, Fire, AND Cheese (which I, as the Head Cook, have an affinity for-- much like Senior Wrangler had an affinity for Fire).


I'm wondering if you can clarify something for me, I know you can't quote PM text but are you saying that from flavor text in the start of Day 3's power PM you were able to deduce being target by Earth, Fire, and Cheese on from Night 2's targetings?

I believe so, yes.


Here's my problem with your initial statement and then confirmation of it, and perhaps I'm making the wrong move by admitting this, but I targeted you with Water on Night 2, so that should have been taken into account for your day 3 power PM. So the only conclusion I can reach is that you, perhaps once again as you've used flavor text to deduce power PMs before, have been incorrectly relating that information to the rest of us... whether mistakenly or intentionally is for others to consider.

As for me, Ozymandias, I've made up my mind.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby necklessone » 12 Aug 2013, 09:33:52

Just some color coded vote history over my lunch break.

Day 1
Rictus - 7 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito, Mortus, Blindsniper83, Hellheart, stigmata, FurinMirado
stigmata - 5 - RaveBomb, sphenodont, Ionitor, Rictus, Anzig
Ionitor - 3 - Wasabi, Omega, necklessone
FurinMirado - 3 - Visigoth, twdog, Smirker
RaveBomb - 2 - Nitestorm, 7-Zark-7
Iron Clad Burrito - 2 - Meta4, Mister E. Meat
San - 2 - Ryvvn, Aldax
Ryvvn - 1 - San
rekard - 1 - Anvilfang

Votes not submitted:

AugenVonSauron
Clearasday


[+] history
stigmata votes for Hellheart (retracted)
Nitestorm votes for RaveBomb
Ozymandias votes for stigmata (retracted)
rekard votes for Rictus
San votes for Ryvvn
Ionitor votes for Wasabi (retracted)
RaveBomb votes for stigmata
dferrantino votes for Ozymandias (retracted)
Wasabi votes for Ionitor
Omega votes for San (retracted)
twdog votes for RaveBomb (retracted)
Meta4 votes for Iron Clad Burrito
Ryvvn votes for San
stigmata votes for RaveBomb (retracted)
Iron Clad Burrito votes for Rictus
Mister E. Meat votes for Iron Clad Burrito
Aldax votes for San
sphenodont votes for stigmata
Anvilfang votes for rekard
Visigoth votes for FurinMirado
Ionitor votes for stigmata
7-Zark-7 votes for RaveBomb
Omega votes for Ionitor
Mortus votes for Rictus
twdog votes for FurinMirado
simple_simon votes for Ozymandias (retracted)
Blindsniper83 votes for Rictus
Anzig votes for Ozymandias (retracted)
Hellheart votes for Rictus
Rictus votes for Wasabi (retracted)
necklessone votes for Ionitor
Smirker votes for FurinMirado
FurinMirado votes for Ionitor
Rictus votes for stigmata
stigmata votes for Rictus
Anzig votes for stigmata



Day 2
Blindsniper83 - 14 - Mister E. Meat, twdog, AugenVonSauron, FurinMirado, Hellheart, Ryvvn, RaveBomb, Power-Related Votes +7
Mister E. Meat - 8 - Meta4, Iron Clad Burrito, necklessone, Omega, Blindsniper83, Ozymandias, Ionitor, Power-Related Votes +1
Ionitor - 4 - Aldax, simple_simon, Mortus, stigmata
twdog - 2 - dferrantino, sphenodont
Omega - 2 - Visigoth, rekard
Smirker - 2 - San, Anvilfang
FurinMirado - 1 - Anzig
dferrantino - 1 - Smirker
Ozymandias - 1 - 7-Zark-7
Anvilfang - 1 - Wasabi
Clearasday - 1 - Penalty x1

Missing Votes: Clearasday

[+] Vote History
rekard votes for FurinMirado (retracted)
Ozymandias votes for stigmata (retracted)
Ryvvn votes for rekard (retracted)
Hellheart votes for Ozymandias (retracted)
RaveBomb votes for Ozymandias (retracted)
Meta4 votes for Mister E. Meat
Ionitor votes for Aldax (retracted)
stigmata votes for Ozymandias (retracted)
Mister E. Meat votes for Blindsniper83
dferrantino votes for twdog
Anzig votes for FurinMirado
Aldax votes for Ionitor
Iron Clad Burrito votes for Mister E. Meat
twdog votes for Blindsniper83
Omega votes for Ionitor (retracted)
Visigoth votes for Omega
sphenodont votes for twdog
Smirker votes for dferrantino
rekard votes for Omega
necklessone votes for Mister E. Meat
simple_simon votes for Ionitor
AugenVonSauron votes for Blindsniper83
RaveBomb votes for Mister E. Meat (retracted)
7-Zark-7 votes for Ozymandias
San votes for Smirker
Anvilfang votes for Smirker
Wasabi votes for Ionitor (retracted)
FurinMirado votes for Blindsniper83
Blindsniper83 votes for Ozymandias (retracted)
Ozymandias votes for Blindsniper83 (retracted)
Ionitor votes for Blindsniper83 (retracted)
Mortus votes for Ionitor
Hellheart votes for Ionitor (retracted)
Wasabi votes for Anvilfang
Omega votes for Mister E. Meat
Hellheart votes for Mister E. Meat (retracted)
stigmata votes for Ionitor
Blindsniper83 votes for Mister E. Meat
Hellheart votes for Blindsniper83
Ryvvn votes for Blindsniper83
Ozymandias votes for Mister E. Meat
Ionitor votes for Mister E. Meat
RaveBomb votes for Blindsniper83



Day 3
7-Zark-7 - 8 - Ozymandias, necklessone, RaveBomb, Iron Clad Burrito, Anzig, +3 Power
Mortus - 5 - rekard, sphenodont, Ryvvn, Mister E. Meat, + 1 Power
sphenodont - 5 - Ionitor, stigmata, Hellheart, FurinMirado, +1 Power
dferrantino - 2 - Smirker, AugenVonSauron
Mister E. Meat - 3 - Meta4, Omega, +1 Power
Visigoth - 2 - San, Wasabi
Wasabi - 2 - Visigoth, Anvilfang
Hellheart - 1 - Aldax
Smirker - 1 - Clearasday
Ozymandias - 1 - 7-Zark-7


[+] Vote History
rekard votes for Mortus
Ryvvn votes for rekard (retracted)
Smirker votes for dferrantino
Meta4 votes for Mister E. Meat
Ionitor votes for sphenodont
San votes for Visigoth
Visigoth votes for Wasabi
Ozymandias votes for 7-Zark-7
AugenVonSauron votes for dferrantino
necklessone votes for 7-Zark-7
RaveBomb votes for 7-Zark-7
Anvilfang votes for Wasabi
FurinMirado votes for Mortus (retracted)
stigmata votes for sphenodont
Hellheart votes for Visigoth (retracted)
Omega votes for Mister E. Meat
Iron Clad Burrito votes for 7-Zark-7
Anzig votes for 7-Zark-7
Aldax votes for Hellheart
Wasabi votes for Visigoth
Clearasday votes for Smirker
Hellheart votes for sphenodont
FurinMirado votes for sphenodont
7-Zark-7 votes for sphenodont (retracted)
sphenodont votes for Mortus
7-Zark-7 votes for Ozymandias
Ryvvn votes for Mortus
Mister E. Meat votes for Mortus

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Omega » 12 Aug 2013, 09:35:37

This is what I see the vote count at

Ozymandias - 4 - Smirker, RaveBomb, Stigmata, Ryvvn
AugenVonSauron - 1 - San
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - rekard

Playing with Fire
DastrdlyOldMan - 1 - Mister E. Meat

Is that accurate?

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Aug 2013, 09:42:53

Did not want to edit my previous post and make it look like I changed any pertinent information but I want to name who I targeted each night thus far:

Night 0: dferrantino
Night 1: Aldex
Night 2: Ozymandias
Night 3: Omega

So if any of the other targets received a power with flavor text including Water and would come forward that would add weight to my distrust of Ozy's claims.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby dferrantino » 12 Aug 2013, 09:44:02

Ryvvn wrote:Night 0: dferrantino

I've received absolutely nothing all game.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 09:45:45

Ryvvn wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Based on the PM, it was a power resulting from being targeted by Earth, Fire, AND Cheese (which I, as the Head Cook, have an affinity for-- much like Senior Wrangler had an affinity for Fire).


I'm wondering if you can clarify something for me, I know you can't quote PM text but are you saying that from flavor text in the start of Day 3's power PM you were able to deduce being target by Earth, Fire, and Cheese on from Night 2's targetings?

Ozymandias wrote:I believe so, yes.

Here's my problem with your initial statement and then confirmation of it, and perhaps I'm making the wrong move by admitting this, but I targeted you with Water on Night 2, so that should have been taken into account for your day 3 power PM. So the only conclusion I can reach is that you, perhaps once again as you've used flavor text to deduce power PMs before, have been incorrectly relating that information to the rest of us... whether mistakenly or intentionally is for others to consider.

As for me, Ozymandias, I've made up my mind.

First, let me say that Ryvvn is telling the truth.

I was indeed also targeted by Water on Night 2, which means that Ryvvn is almost certainly a Water Elemental.

If anyone has GA powers today, please protect Ryvvn, because he's going to be a very likely maul target tonight.

The reason I did not admit the water component is that Water is pretty obviously associated with PMs, and I didn't want the Wolves to know that I've been setting up a Human Alliance behind the scenes.

I've actually been working on this Human Alliance for two days now, because on Day 2 someone contacted me with their PM power.

Anyway, two people can confirm that I sent PMs yesterday:

(1) I contacted MEM and asked him to join our Human Alliance. He declined-- publicly, at the end of the Day 3 thread-- because at the time he did not trust me.

(2) I also sent a PM to Ravebomb at the very end of the day, because it occurred to me that I might have been Shadowed, and the Wolves might get to read one of my PMs, so I sent a random message to Ravebomb to try to throw them off of the HA.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 12 Aug 2013, 09:50:37, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby necklessone » 12 Aug 2013, 09:46:39

The Ozy issue tears me three ways.

The first is this really does seem like a wolf trap. Wait until Day 4 (a day people have already said is a good day to lynch Ozy) and maul his lover the night before to give extra reinforcement to the people who think the lovers are split between sides. The entire handling of the lovers roles really does make no sense if Ozy was a wolf.

Next up is the lie about being targeted by water Night 2. I don't get a lying vibe from Ryvnn, but if my read on what powers water can bestow is accurate then maybe I can see why Ozy didn't want people to know what he was up to. Still, strike against Ozy here.

The last issue is the fact that I still owe Ozy a death. But all of you fire people have done an awful job of giving me a vig shot. Shame on you all.

I think I still have to go with my gut and vote Smirker. I came into today expecting the wolves to try and bandwagon Ozy and he delivered.

(I'm going straight from work to a shindig for my wife's job tonight so my availability is going to be super spotty tonight. That's why I'm voting earlier than I normally like to do.)

Edit: Damn people, stop posting while I type.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Omega » 12 Aug 2013, 09:47:30

Ryvvn wrote:Did not want to edit my previous post and make it look like I changed any pertinent information but I want to name who I targeted each night thus far:

Night 0: dferrantino
Night 1: Aldex
Night 2: Ozymandias
Night 3: Omega

So if any of the other targets received a power with flavor text including Water and would come forward that would add weight to my distrust of Ozy's claims.


For what it is worth, either,
a) I was the target of two players powers (yours and another power to block it), or
b) you're lying.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby necklessone » 12 Aug 2013, 09:48:27

dferrantino wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Night 0: dferrantino

I've received absolutely nothing all game.

I don't believe you get PM'd unless enough people target you to get a power.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 09:55:52

Omega wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Did not want to edit my previous post and make it look like I changed any pertinent information but I want to name who I targeted each night thus far:

Night 0: dferrantino
Night 1: Aldex
Night 2: Ozymandias
Night 3: Omega

So if any of the other targets received a power with flavor text including Water and would come forward that would add weight to my distrust of Ozy's claims.


For what it is worth, either,
a) I was the target of two players powers (yours and another power to block it), or
b) you're lying.

I don't understand-- if Ryyvn was the only player who targeted you last night, then you would never know that he did so.

So are you saying you got a power, and the PM informing you of that power did not hint at Water?

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Omega » 12 Aug 2013, 09:56:50

ah, then add option c) Only Ryvvn targeted me.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby Ozymandias » 12 Aug 2013, 10:05:55

Ozymandias wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:I'm wondering if you can clarify something for me, I know you can't quote PM text but are you saying that from flavor text in the start of Day 3's power PM you were able to deduce being target by Earth, Fire, and Cheese on from Night 2's targetings?

I believe so, yes.

Oh, and by the way, I didn't actually lie in my response to you, since I was targeted by FOUR elements on Night 2: Earth, Fire, Cheese AND Water.

Thanks to all of you out there who sent a lot of Night 2 loving to the Lover!
Last edited by Ozymandias on 12 Aug 2013, 10:14:35, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 4: Dark Waters

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Aug 2013, 10:09:22

Smirker and Ravebomb are currently on my list of unknowns plus they're voting for Ozy who I am fairly sure is human at this point. I have read a lot of arguments for why Ozy is human but the only argument I'm hearing for why he might be a wolf is "Ozy isn't dead yet" or "he's tricky, you can't trust him". Unless a non-elemental with Cheese Affinity comes forward, I'm going to assume Ozy is human.

Stigmata and Ryvvn I believe are human, just misguided at this point.

Added: My boss decided to call me and I get back to find a flurry of posts! Still my vote remains the same unless a strong bandwagon starts on Ravebomb.


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