Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Visigoth » 13 Aug 2013, 17:19:33

So Anzig may or may not be a wolf still. Curious what element he did present and if you just got the element type or also the word as well. Unless the word is the bird as we already know the bird is the word.

It would appear that either the word on dferrantino is that not enough people targeted him last night or he could be a dirty lyre and did get something but doesn't want to share with the class what it might be. On another hand he might have gotten something but due to wolves possibly using all of their powers for greater evil instead of just minor evil the odds are probably good that anything he got is corrupted so why risk mentioning it and being asked to use it. On the other hand it might have been too late for people to switch as between the acceptance of the mission of doom there were only a couple people posting and they might not have wanted to join in on the one-way mission. On yet the other hand why did he live since if he had been properly targeted he'd have some juice which might be dangerous to those of lupine persuasion. Though on the other hand (how many hands is that... four... perfect) leaving him alive and hopefully with a nastily corrupted power might be just as good. Now that we've aired that out I have no idea what it all means. Likely nothing.

The beating of the drums for Ozymandias's head continue and are getting to be a distraction. This reminds me of the game in which Smirker (I believe) kept coming in second a few days in a row and thus became the focus of discussion with repeated attempts to end the poor man's life. And if I recall correctly in the end it turned out that he truly just a poor man in the wrong place at the wrong time on the wrong day. Of course my recall isn't what it used to be so perhaps the end conclusion is wrong, but the point still stands. Not unlike the cheese standing alone the continued back and forth and back and forth and back and forth (hurk) on is he or isn't he serves no purpose other than to nicely distract up for the place. Part of me says to send him to the gallows pole just to end the issue and but another part of me thinks that part of me is a little cruel and quite unusual.

So where does the music end for my vote-o-matic today? I think I'm going back to FurinMirado. In part because I'm honestly a little curious about this "vote on me" thing which almost sounds like an inverse of what 7-Zark-7 did so maybe all those voting on him will be told his alignment or perhaps just his sign. Also that he's talking about having people vote on him for some sort of power activation when it would appear that he had already used a gained power. So possibly having two powers confounds me it does and slightly scares me. Or perhaps I've simply been on the receiving end of a clever ruse.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Omega » 13 Aug 2013, 17:21:00

rekard wrote:Omega's way of saying things this game bothers me a bit. It's like what he's saying and doing feels empty. It strikes me in the wrong way.


What?

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby necklessone » 13 Aug 2013, 17:21:54

So, it's less than three hours to deadline. Here's where I am.

1) I'm obviously not going to support any plan to lynch necklessone.
2) I'd prefer not to lynch this subset of folks today: Hellheart, dferrantino, Ozy, MEM, Ryvvn, Meta4, Anzig, Aldax, AnvilFang, FurinMirado, Zark, Visigoth. Some of these people I suspect are human. Others were chosen by RNG. Have fun working it out, wolves.
3) I am very curious about San, but I have stated in many game that he is a complete blank slate to me. So it's not even that I suspect he's a wolf, I just can never tell anything about him. I'm not sure this is a good reason to lynch anyone.
4) One of my big fears is a wolf CAD; the missing history will make him difficult to figure out. Also not really a good argument.

So I'm still not sure where my vote is going to end up.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby rekard » 13 Aug 2013, 17:23:01

Something that personally baffles me a bit is Simon being alive after saying he is Air. But his mirror confession could have fooled them. As I once said, simon is a master bullshitter and can make people believe his stuff even for a moment. I wouldn't put it out of the question that his "mirror"ability scared some wolves out there.

Also about wolves, I would say that the only good wolf is a dead wolf. Who cares if a wolf is non-elemental. At this stage of the game knowing someone is a wolf will give a good deal of information. Always good.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Aug 2013, 17:26:05

Ozymandias wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Here's a thought regarding everyone's reluctance to lynch the possible non-elemental wolf, wouldn't that be in our best interest because that will put the wolves in a more difficult situation of choosing to maul or use powers each night? If having that non-elemental wolf gives them the opportunity to both use some powers and maul each night, seems we should try to cut that ability off.

DOM has said that when the Wolves maul they can still use a subset of their powers-- I don't see why the Non-Elemental Wolf/Wolves would need to be alive for them to continue to do so?


What I meant was, well what is specifically a subset? Is it half, less than?? If we removed the non-elemental, then the wolves have a harder time choosing to sacrifice power usage for the maul... which I'd assume they would, but then that's less corrupted powers if the humans can get their accuracy up.

edit: I may be confusing the use of the word subset here

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Simple_Simon » 13 Aug 2013, 17:34:02

rekard wrote:Something that personally baffles me a bit is Simon being alive after saying he is Air. But his mirror confession could have fooled them. As I once said, simon is a master bullshitter and can make people believe his stuff even for a moment. I wouldn't put it out of the question that his "mirror"ability scared some wolves out there.

Also about wolves, I would say that the only good wolf is a dead wolf. Who cares if a wolf is non-elemental. At this stage of the game knowing someone is a wolf will give a good deal of information. Always good.


We're almost close enough to the end of the day. I assure you I have a good reason for this (at least one person can vouch for that). You will know everything I know before EOD today, and tomorrow we feast on wolf meat!
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby rekard » 13 Aug 2013, 17:40:11

I look forward to it. Just not too close to EOD if possible.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Simple_Simon » 13 Aug 2013, 17:43:29

rekard wrote:I look forward to it. Just not too close to EOD if possible.


Werd. I can't wait either.

I'd also like to point out that I have retracted my vote from Furin at least temporarily.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 17:44:04

rekard wrote:Also about wolves, I would say that the only good wolf is a dead wolf. Who cares if a wolf is non-elemental. At this stage of the game knowing someone is a wolf will give a good deal of information. Always good.

There's two problems with this theory. The first - and most obvious - is that we only have outed 5 of the 6 non-elemental roles (Bursar, Rincewind, Librarian, Whitlow, Wrangler). That doesn't mean the 6th is the wolf non-elemental - the 6th non-elemental to be outed is going to look unbelievably suspicious - but it's more likely than not that the unknown non-elemental is the wolf.

The second is that there are 4 regular wolves and one non-elemental wolf out there. The chance of hitting a non-elemental wolf is 1/6. The chance of hitting an elemental wolf with 24 players left, assuming we have equal suspicion of everyone, is:

Code: Select all

(4 regular wolves) / { (24 players) - (5 outed non-elementals) }
4/19 = 0.21% > 1/5

1/5 is greater than 1/6. Therefore, statistically, a totally random elemental lynch is more likely to hit a wolf than a non-elemental lynch. Voting for Ozy is hardly random, but I'd like to think that our elemental player votes are also not random.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 17:48:46

Simple_Simon wrote:We're almost close enough to the end of the day. I assure you I have a good reason for this (at least one person can vouch for that). You will know everything I know before EOD today, and tomorrow we feast on wolf meat!

...Wait, wait. If this is what I think it is...I mean, I missed it, sure, but I would have thought that some wolf...

laughs and shrugs

Let's just say that I'm hope I'm right. That would be quite a trip :)

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby rekard » 13 Aug 2013, 17:50:31

Uhm. What theory?
I'm just talking about catching wolves. If non-elementals are around, it should be a supplement for lynch logic, not the major basis yet.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby sphenodont » 13 Aug 2013, 18:00:02

Okay, power is back (fun with upgrading fuses!).

Retracting from Furin, since the experiment appears to have failed. I'm feeling a bit better about him now.

So, back to my suspicions on San, which I'm not alone in.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Aug 2013, 18:01:56

~2 hours remain:

Ozymandias - 5 - stigmata, dferrantino, 7-Zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Aldax
San - 5 - Anvilfang, Meta4, Omega, FurinMirado, sphenodont
rekard - 2 - Anzig, RaveBomb
Anzig - 2 - Clearasday, Wasabi
FurinMirado - 2 - necklessone, Visigoth
Omega - 2 - rekard, Hellheart
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - San
Clearasday - 1 - Mister E. Meat
dferrantino - 1 - Ryvvn

Yet to (re)Vote:
AVS
Ozymandias
simple_simon

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Aug 2013, 18:06:01

With my vote on dferrantino not having been a sincere pick, I need to move to somebody; and I don't feel right on either Ozy or San at this time, so I'm throwing a still not entirely final vote on rekard until I see how the next hour and change shakes out.
Last edited by Ryvvn on 13 Aug 2013, 19:54:39, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby sphenodont » 13 Aug 2013, 18:12:11

Anyway, I think Ryvvn asked for details about what I said the other day, and I didn't have a chance to clarify.

I got a notification that I was starting to feel some power coming on (hinted of earth), but that then something that felt like a giant vortex sucked it out of me.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby rekard » 13 Aug 2013, 18:15:02

I don't know if you noticed it Ryvvn, but I attempted to put a thrid vote on the wolf Mortus back on Day3. I had already voted for him though, but still tried that cuz I had forgotten. So yeah, try again.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby necklessone » 13 Aug 2013, 18:17:21

sphenodont wrote:Anyway, I think Ryvvn asked for details about what I said the other day, and I didn't have a chance to clarify.

I got a notification that I was starting to feel some power coming on (hinted of earth), but that then something that felt like a giant vortex sucked it out of me.

Could that have been an earth / air (vortex/tornado) combo cancelling out?

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Aug 2013, 18:22:34

rekard wrote:I don't know if you noticed it Ryvvn, but I attempted to put a thrid vote on the wolf Mortus back on Day3. I had already voted for him though, but still tried that cuz I had forgotten. So yeah, try again.


My possibly temporary vote on you is not based on your actions but completely on the way you put yourself across, just fyi

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 18:56:40

sigh

FurinMirado

EDIT: Retracted
Last edited by Hellheart on 13 Aug 2013, 18:58:13, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 18:57:47

I refuse to let someone be lynched this early for nothing more than random voting that hasn't hurt or helped anyone. Unless another bandwagon rolls along, I have no other choice.

Ozymandias
Last edited by Hellheart on 13 Aug 2013, 19:00:53, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Simple_Simon » 13 Aug 2013, 19:00:32

With an hour to go I need to make a vote I guess. As reluctant to do this as I am.

I am neither here nor there on either of the leaders tonight. One or both or neither could be wolves for all I care.

Here's what I do care about, information. Every day all day we talk about Ozy. Ozy this, Ozy that. This isn't the wolfgame anymore it's Ozy radio, 107.5fm, all Ozy all the time (sounds like a good idea right?). I'm beyond sick of it. Every damn day he remains alive we'll waste hours talking about this or that but it will always be about Ozy or centered around Ozy.

For better or worse Ozy is doing us humans more damage than good and voting to lynch him today doesn't seem a terribly bad idea just to move on tomorrow. Maybe we can finally get some other topics going. I digress from that however.

I also have no strong opinions about San, and that's pretty honest. Except he's been talking for days about stealing things. Quite frankly we can't have thieves among us.

Even now the coin is still flipping in my head, though who am I kidding, I'm never the deciding factor.

The thief or the showman, I think the thief is worse. San

Edit, or not ... while typing this I am no longer the determining factor. I still think we need to discuss why San thinks everyone is stealing from him, who is stealing and what exactly.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Simple_Simon » 13 Aug 2013, 19:03:01

Sweet looks like I made a tie. It's not much to look at but here's the votes with about an hour to go.


Ozymandias - 6 - stigmata, dferrantino, 7-Zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Aldax, Hellheart
San - 6 - Anvilfang, Meta4, Omega, FurinMirado, sphenodont, Simple_Simon
rekard - 3 - Anzig, RaveBomb, Ryvvn
Anzig - 2 - Clearasday, Wasabi
FurinMirado - 2 - necklessone, Visigoth
Omega - 1 - rekard
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - San
Clearasday - 1 - Mister E. Meat
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 19:03:15

Simple_Simon wrote:Edit, or not ... while typing this I am no longer the determining factor. I still think we need to discuss why San thinks everyone is stealing from him, who is stealing and what exactly.

Hmmm...not what I suspected. Do you think San is the 6th non-elemental, and the wolf one at that?

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby 7-zark-7 » 13 Aug 2013, 19:04:06

Ozymandias wrote:
rekard wrote:Zark, I just read what you said about who wolves are looking for and you're partly wrong. Wolves want to kill Earth AND Air folks, not Water. PMs are convenient but visions and defense are more useful. At the same time, I probably skipped a few lines but Ozy said Simon was Air. Why was that again?

Simon claimed an Affinity to Air when he role-claimed.

It was a bit surprising, since Zark is RinceWIND, but Zark hasn't contested simon's claim.


That's really bothering you?

My thought was it only helps he wolves to tell everyone's elemental affinity, but I'll put this particular concern to bed. I am not contesting Simon, he can have all the air he wants. Me, i could use a drink right about now. Mended drum anyone?

More in a bit,
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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby RaveBomb » 13 Aug 2013, 19:04:50

After careful and considered consideration, readacted was San
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Simple_Simon » 13 Aug 2013, 19:09:23

Hellheart wrote:
Simple_Simon wrote:Edit, or not ... while typing this I am no longer the determining factor. I still think we need to discuss why San thinks everyone is stealing from him, who is stealing and what exactly.

Hmmm...not what I suspected. Do you think San is the 6th non-elemental, and the wolf one at that?


No I told you in that post. I want to know why he is so adamant people are stealing from him. That is more important to me right now than shutting up the Ozy show.

edit: That = than
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 19:11:49

Here's an odd theory, which I'm only advancing because Simple_Simon brought up the point: what exactly does San think people are stealing from him?

San has apparently been using an RNG to determine votes...but what if he isn't voting for people to lynch? What if San's votes are a clever way to identify the person he will be targeting that day, or that he targeted the previous day?

It shouldn't be hard to determine. He would have to be a cheese elemental unless he's totally ignoring Ozy's targeting list. If he does tend to vote for just one person day after day, that would be an alternate explanation for his change in voting habits.

EDIT: If that's true, this would have been his targeting list:

N1: Ryvvn
N2: smirker
N3: Visigoth
N4: Augen
N5: ICB

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Aug 2013, 19:18:31

Hellheart wrote:Here's an odd theory, which I'm only advancing because Simple_Simon brought up the point: what exactly does San think people are stealing from him?

San has apparently been using an RNG to determine votes...but what if he isn't voting for people to lynch? What if San's votes are a clever way to identify the person he will be targeting that day, or that he targeted the previous day?

It shouldn't be hard to determine. He would have to be a cheese elemental unless he's totally ignoring Ozy's targeting list. If he does tend to vote for just one person day after day, that would be an alternate explanation for his change in voting habits.

EDIT: If that's true, this would have been his targeting list:

N1: Ryvvn
N2: smirker
N3: Visigoth
N4: Augen
N5: ICB


If I was targeted, I did not receive any powers on Day 2, which I know is not conclusive evidence one way or the other, but just wanted to inform

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 19:24:35

Ryvvn wrote:If I was targeted, I did not receive any powers on Day 2, which I know is not conclusive evidence one way or the other, but just wanted to inform

Thanks. I just want to make sure that there isn't an easy, but subtle explanation that we're missing.

I suppose that my defense of "he's done nothing wrong" isn't any better than the accusation of "he's done nothing right" either, but I'm a lot more confident about the list of people voting for Ozy than I am about the list of people voting for Sen.

EDIT: And technically San is leading by 2. Ozy hasn't cast his vote yet.
Last edited by Hellheart on 13 Aug 2013, 19:27:02, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Aug 2013, 19:25:53

I feel there is an alarming amount of inactivity this close to EOD...

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 19:28:33

Ryvvn wrote:I feel there is an alarming amount of inactivity this close to EOD...

Ozy's keeping silent because he's in 2nd place, and anything he says runs a risk of rubbing people the wrong way. His posts and responses to his posts make up nearly 80% of the posts in this TWG.

Okay, so that's a made-up percentage, but I'll be damned if I'm not pretty close.

EDIT: Nobody on that target list admitted to a power, at all. I can't say that my theory holds water, which means that San is going to be strung up barring some late vote manipulation.

I hope that the mass of people who voted for him have a read that nobody's really been able to explain.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Aug 2013, 19:39:01

I suppose I should mention, in the event I get mauled tonight and anyone wants to attempt to help grant a power based on my word usage, I did target someone by still following Ozy's originally suggested method; I'm going to refrain from specifically mentioning who this time.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby necklessone » 13 Aug 2013, 19:42:38

Hellheart wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:I feel there is an alarming amount of inactivity this close to EOD...

Ozy's keeping silent because he's in 2nd place, and anything he says runs a risk of rubbing people the wrong way. His posts and responses to his posts make up nearly 80% of the posts in this TWG.

Okay, so that's a made-up percentage, but I'll be damned if I'm not pretty close.

EDIT: Nobody on that target list admitted to a power, at all. I can't say that my theory holds water, which means that San is going to be strung up barring some late vote manipulation.

I hope that the mass of people who voted for him have a read that nobody's really been able to explain.

Wish I did. But between San and Ozy, I vote San.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Simple_Simon » 13 Aug 2013, 19:44:13

Someone must be nervous by now. C'mon talk, I promise I won't hurt you!

much

:twisted:
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Simple_Simon » 13 Aug 2013, 19:47:20

Alright we're nearing the end of the day. So here it is.

Last night I was attacked, as I had hoped. It didn't entirely go as I planned. It turns out the way I can avoid night actions is trading my mirror for my life. In other words someone has my mirror because someone preformed an action on me last night.

What kind of action? I do not know, the PM indicated I was attacked by something blurry and I fell over. Something about shoes, then the blurr found my precious. He took my precious, now I has no precious!

I think if someone had performed a good action on me last night they would have said so by now. Which is why I am being mum until the end of the day. I am hoping I don't get a revisit from whatever the fuck that was. Could it be the wolves? Possibly. I did ask to be mauled after all.

So what does this mean to us? Well I don't have my mirror so I am now 100% vulnerable. I also have zero abilities or powers left now. I am also not certain how I go about getting it back, or if it's possible to get it back. Lastly I don't know if the mirror will still reflect from me if someone else has it, or if it will reflect from them.

So, you guys need to watch your PM's tonight. We're looking for odd bounces. If you've targeted me before tonight you might know what to expect, if you see that with someone else you can imediately assume they are hostile.

So why did I switch away from Furin? I don't want to reveal information about 3rd parties. I can tell you I have been contacted by an anonymous source who claims that Furin does not actually have my mirror. I assumed he did based on his earlier post mentioning powers exactly that of my mirror. If this is true or not remains to be seen.

So now if you fuckers want to maul or lynch me, fine. I have given you a way to spot hostiles, look for odd reflection PM's and such with regards to your elements. If you spot that on someone who isn't me, chances are that's my mirror. Chances are they're not going to be as nice with it as I was.

You had your chance to speak up if you're a good guy. You haven't, so now everyone will be looking for you. Please die.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Aug 2013, 19:47:56

San - 8 - Anvilfang, Meta4, Omega, FurinMirado, sphenodont, simple_simon, RaveBomb, necklessone
Ozymandias - 6 - stigmata, dferrantino, 7-Zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Aldax, Hellheart
rekard - 2 - Anzig, Ryvvn
Anzig - 2 - Clearasday, Wasabi
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - San
Clearasday - 1 - Mister E. Meat
Omega - 1 - rekard
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth

Yet to vote:
AugenVonSauron
Ozymandias

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby RaveBomb » 13 Aug 2013, 19:49:42

Ozymandias
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 19:52:22

Simple_Simon wrote:What kind of action? I do not know, the PM indicated I was attacked by something blurry and I fell over. Something about shoes, then the blurr found my precious. He took my precious, now I has no precious!

Man, what a dick. I bet you it's Augen, she looks like she spends all day looking at herself in the mirror.

Pre-Post Edit: Ravebomb you magnificent bastard ;)

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby rekard » 13 Aug 2013, 19:52:32

Actually, that actually makes a lot of sense simon. Given that you are Air, you would be a good maul target. If someone god some Earth protection, try to protect Simon.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Aug 2013, 19:53:44

Simple_Simon wrote:What kind of action? I do not know, the PM indicated I was attacked by something blurry and I fell over. Something about shoes, then the blurr found my precious. He took my precious, now I has no precious!

Based on Discworld lore, being attacked by something blurry and unseen could indicate the luggage, especially since it could just swallow up the mirror.

As for tonight's vote, as I'm worried about possible vote manipulation powers and I'm not ready for Ozy to be out of the game (say what you will, I feel he's the one making it "fun"), I'm settling on San as my final.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Mister E. Meat » 13 Aug 2013, 19:53:57

necklessone wrote:So, it's less than three hours to deadline. Here's where I am.

1) I'm obviously not going to support any plan to lynch necklessone.
2) I'd prefer not to lynch this subset of folks today: Hellheart, dferrantino, Ozy, MEM, Ryvvn, Meta4, Anzig, Aldax, AnvilFang, FurinMirado, Zark, Visigoth. Some of these people I suspect are human. Others were chosen by RNG. Have fun working it out, wolves.
3) I am very curious about San, but I have stated in many game that he is a complete blank slate to me. So it's not even that I suspect he's a wolf, I just can never tell anything about him. I'm not sure this is a good reason to lynch anyone.
4) One of my big fears is a wolf CAD; the missing history will make him difficult to figure out. Also not really a good argument.

So I'm still not sure where my vote is going to end up.

This is so much me right now. I always have a hard time reading CAD whether he's human or wolf. The one thing I do know is that he generally reacts to being poked and the lack of reaction has me stymied. I know I'm "wasting" my vote and this singleton is going to look "suspicious" tomorrow but I'm 99% sure that Ozy is human, about %60 on Furin and San is also very hard to read. I wouldn't even say I have an opinion. I'd be willing to look at Wasabi and Visigoth if anyone has a power that let's them see up a skirt (I don't FTR).

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Simple_Simon » 13 Aug 2013, 19:55:17

rekard wrote:Actually, that actually makes a lot of sense simon. Given that you are Air, you would be a good maul target. If someone god some Earth protection, try to protect Simon.


No do not do that.

I HAVE NO IDEA HOW THE MIRROR WILL WORK IF I DON'T HAVE IT. ANY ACTION ON ME TONIGHT COULD BE USED BY HOSTILES IF MY MIRROR STILL REFLECTS FROM ME.

If I get mauled I get mauled and you still have a way to find wolves. I did the best I could now leave me to die.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ozymandias » 13 Aug 2013, 19:56:16

Given the very good chance I'm not alive tomorrow, here's my farewell post ...

One reason I haven't posted as much analysis as I normally do is that it can be very difficult to use voting analysis in these kind of Special skins to identify Wolves, due to the uncertainty associated with vote manipulation (i.e., is that bandwagon really what it seems?)

But I think it's a bit easier to identify likely Humans.

Here are my Top 12 Probable Humans, ranked roughly from most to least likely, along with a brief reason why:

1. Ryvvn-- only an actual Water Elemental would have known I was also targeted by Water on Night 2
2. Anzig-- he was Seered as Human by a member of the Human Alliance (HA) whom I trust
3. MEM-- put the killing vote on Mortus, which so far, was the most important vote of the game
4. FurinMirado-- his coming forward about his power usage on Day 1 saved Humans a lot of wasted time
5. spheno-- put key 3rd vote on Mortus on Day 3 instead of four other possible 2-vote bandwagons
6. necklessone-- very hard to believe he wouldn't have tried to kill me by now after how I vigged him on Day 2 last game
7. Aldax-- I have been targeted so often by the same Cheese Elemental that I learned his magic word: "fondue." Do a site search, and then do the math.
8. rekard-- he REALLY wanted Mortus dead on Day 3; obviously his second post didn't count, but it did bring attention to Mortus at a critical time.
9. Omega-- why would he switch from Ionitor to MEM on Day 2 if he's a Wolf?
10. Zark-- despite his often erratic behavior, it's hard for me to believe that the Wolves would needlessly sacrifice a Shadow Elemental in this skin due to the importance of corrupting powers in this skin.
11. Hellheart-- I believe I know what kind of Elemental he is (which is what I was hinting at on Day 5), and am reasonably sure that a player targeted by him did not have a corrupted power.
12. Anvilfang-- I don't really have a logical reason per se; I just got a good overall Human vibe from him. I guess what it was is that he seemed much more reasonable than a Wolf would be in his position.

Now of course even if all these players are 95+% likely to be Human, there's probably still at least one Wolf in the above list.

But my best guess is that the rest of the Wolves (and incidentally we've only been assuming 6 but we can't be sure) will be found among the remaining 11 players.

Good luck!

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Ozymandias » 13 Aug 2013, 19:57:46

San

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby rekard » 13 Aug 2013, 19:57:57

15 of 24 possible votes on two bandwagons. I wonder if wolves spread out of those or we have some outsiders on the other wagons. Not likely all wolves will be in thoae 2 wagons. If San turns out human, some voters in there will be in trouble.

16 if Ozy votes San.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby Hellheart » 13 Aug 2013, 19:58:46

Mister E. Meat wrote:l'm 99% sure that Ozy is human, about %60 on Furin and San is also very hard to read. I wouldn't even say I have an opinion.

I want to state for the record that I'm fairly certain that Ozy is human because the last non-elemental hasn't been outed, but I think we might be better off having reasonably even-handed discussions with him gone.

I also want to state for the record that I will be a lot less heavy-handed with my posts if I don't have to counterbalance Ozy :P

Good luck Ozy. If San ends up being a cheese human, you'll come out smelling like a rose for at least one more day.

...Well, not really, but at least nobody's going to blame you for stringing him up. Not even me.
Last edited by Hellheart on 13 Aug 2013, 19:59:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby rekard » 13 Aug 2013, 19:59:00

I can type fast enough on tablets :/

This day may prove key.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby rekard » 13 Aug 2013, 20:00:05

Hellheart wrote:
Mister E. Meat wrote:l'm 99% sure that Ozy is human, about %60 on Furin and San is also very hard to read. I wouldn't even say I have an opinion.

I want to state for the record that I'm fairly certain that Ozy is human because the last non-elemental hasn't been outed, but I think we might be better off having reasonably even-handed discussions with him gone.

I also want to state for the record that I will be a lot less heavy-handed with my posts if I don't have to counterbalance Ozy :P

Good luck Ozy. If San ends up being a cheese human, you'll come out smelling like a rose for at least one more day.


Dude that's awful logic you don't lynch people you think theyre human. Sigh. So dumb.

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Re: Day 5: Don't Forget the Message!

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Aug 2013, 20:00:29

San - 9 - Anvilfang, Meta4, Omega, FurinMirado, sphenodont, simple_simon, necklessone, Ryvvn, Ozymandias
Ozymandias - 7 - stigmata, dferrantino, 7-Zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Aldax, Hellheart, RaveBomb
Anzig - 2 - Clearasday, Wasabi
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - San
rekard - 1 - Anzig
Clearasday - 1 - Mister E. Meat
Omega - 1 - rekard
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth


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