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Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 13:15:06
by Wasabi
I'd need an hour to sit down and go over the voting history, etc.. but I won't get it. So I've been following others like a good little sheep. I'm pleased to have hit on ICB, but understand it looks opportunistic. Without getting all Wine-In-Front-Of-Me, I'd hope you expect better than that from me, if I were a wolf.

Are we really laying off the use of our words at night? I've been pretty faithfully submitting mine, except that one night I missed everything.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 13:18:34
by necklessone
Wasabi wrote:Are we really laying off the use of our words at night? I've been pretty faithfully submitting mine, except that one night I missed everything.

I don't think that we're there yet, but it's something I want to hear opinions on. I think it's not a bad idea, but I also doubt it'll get enough support so I'm still submitting words.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 13:26:02
by Anvilfang
Going with Wasabi today. Day 2 late game throw away vote and last nights late game bandwagon jump on seems very curious to me.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 13:35:48
by Simple_Simon
I was just looking at neckless' vote history post and I think I see another pattern worth mentioning. I don't know what to make of it yet so I want to point it out and see what happens.

Day 1:
Rictus - 7 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito, Mortus, Blindsniper83, Hellheart, stigmata, FurinMirado

Day 2:

Blindsniper83 - 14 - Mister E. Meat, twdog, AugenVonSauron, FurinMirado, Hellheart, Ryvvn, RaveBomb, Power-Related Votes +7

Day 3:

sphenodont - 5 - Ionitor, stigmata, Hellheart, FurinMirado, +1 Power

Day 4:

Smirker - 11 - necklessone, FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Ozymandias, Anvilfang, Aldax, Hellheart, Omega, dferrantino, simple_simon, Mister E. Meat

Day 4 is where the pattern actually starts to get interesting. During the day on day 4 I mention my mirror ability. Not too much comes out of that except no maul occurs and I don't have my mirror, now watch what happens ...

Day 5:

San - 9 - Anvilfang, Meta4, Omega, FurinMirado, sphenodont, simple_simon, necklessone, Ryvvn, Ozymandias
Ozymandias - 7 - stigmata, dferrantino, 7-Zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Aldax, Hellheart, RaveBomb

I mention my mirror is missing and accuse FurinMirado of taking it and suddenly Hellheart's vote moves away from FurinMirado.

Iron Clad Burrito - 10 - FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Meta4, Anzig, Anvilfang, stigmata, necklessone, Wasabi, Omega, Ryvvn
RaveBomb - 7 - dferrantino, simple_simon, Visigoth, Clearasday, Iron Clad Burrito, Hellheart, rekard

Twice. Now I'm not saying it's enough to go on but I thought it was interesting that the two of them were voting very close together right up until I mention that.

Food for thought I guess.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 13:37:51
by Meta4
Hellheart was among the last of the folks to jump on the Ravebomb wagon yesterday, possibly a sign he was trying to save his comrade-in-arms Burrito. This is obviously not a whole lot to go on, but it's what I've got. Hellheart, come on down!

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 13:42:42
by Anvilfang
Simple_Simon wrote:I was just looking at neckless' vote history post and I think I see another pattern worth mentioning. I don't know what to make of it yet so I want to point it out and see what happens.

Day 1:
Rictus - 7 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito, Mortus, Blindsniper83, Hellheart, stigmata, FurinMirado

Day 2:

Blindsniper83 - 14 - Mister E. Meat, twdog, AugenVonSauron, FurinMirado, Hellheart, Ryvvn, RaveBomb, Power-Related Votes +7

Day 3:

sphenodont - 5 - Ionitor, stigmata, Hellheart, FurinMirado, +1 Power

Day 4:

Smirker - 11 - necklessone, FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Ozymandias, Anvilfang, Aldax, Hellheart, Omega, dferrantino, simple_simon, Mister E. Meat

Day 4 is where the pattern actually starts to get interesting. During the day on day 4 I mention my mirror ability. Not too much comes out of that except no maul occurs and I don't have my mirror, now watch what happens ...

Day 5:

San - 9 - Anvilfang, Meta4, Omega, FurinMirado, sphenodont, simple_simon, necklessone, Ryvvn, Ozymandias
Ozymandias - 7 - stigmata, dferrantino, 7-Zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Aldax, Hellheart, RaveBomb

I mention my mirror is missing and accuse FurinMirado of taking it and suddenly Hellheart's vote moves away from FurinMirado.

Iron Clad Burrito - 10 - FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Meta4, Anzig, Anvilfang, stigmata, necklessone, Wasabi, Omega, Ryvvn
RaveBomb - 7 - dferrantino, simple_simon, Visigoth, Clearasday, Iron Clad Burrito, Hellheart, rekard

Twice. Now I'm not saying it's enough to go on but I thought it was interesting that the two of them were voting very close together right up until I mention that.

Food for thought I guess.

Interesting indeed...

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 13:44:56
by sphenodont
Lack of analysis at the moment. (Went to sleep around 2:30, woke at 6:00.)

Another bandwagon, but hopefully there's something to glean from it.

(At some point, I need to look at rekard, who I also have been trying not to pay attention to. He's been good, but maybe he's trying to out-CAD CAD and go the lone wolf route. :P )

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 13:59:28
by dferrantino
The Hellheart + Furin thing has been mentioned a whole bunch of times, and Hellheart put up a pretty convincing refutation of it yesterday.

Still don't trust stigmata. Confident he's not Earth and if he's the wildcard I've been leaning on it being a Wolf this whole game.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 14:29:06
by Simple_Simon
Alright then.

Today's vote. Wasabi

Why? I'm going in reverse alphabetical order. I will keep voting for Wasabi everyday he is still alive. If/When he dies I will vote for Visigoth, then Stigmata, Sphenodont, can't self vote, San, Ryvvn, rekard, RaveBomb, Omega, necklessone, Mister E. Meat, Meta4, Hellheart, FurinMirado, dferrantino, Clearasday, AugenVonSauron, Anzig, Anvilfang then Aldax.

Now you know my game plan for the rest of the game.

See you tomorrow.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 15:54:50
by Anzig
Still thinking...

Wasabi - 3 - rekard, Anvilfang, Simple_Simon
meta4 - 2 - FurinMirado, RaveBomb
Anvilfang - 1 - San
stigmata - 1 - dferrantino
dferrantino - 1 - ryvvn
hellheart - 1 - meta4

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 15:55:16
by Omega
Sorry gents, was in Mexico this morning and could not use cellular data. I'll have to catch up now, who's the target? What's the message? Where are my pants...

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 16:02:33
by Hellheart
Simple_Simon wrote:Twice. Now I'm not saying it's enough to go on but I thought it was interesting that the two of them were voting very close together right up until I mention that.

Food for thought I guess.

Firstly, our voting together was first mentioned waaaay back on Day 3 or Day 4.

On Day 6, my initial vote was on ICB. This was when Ravebomb was one vote ahead of ICB and me; it was a self-preservation vote intended to get ICB's vote off of me. If he switches, then I switch, and I'm a lot less likely to get lynched through vote manipulation. He switched - to Ravebomb - and I switched to Ravebomb as well because if you look at my Day 5 list of suspects, he's one of them (and I mentioned that he was 2nd on my list behind Anzig, who is obviously now completely off my list). I don't go back on my bargains, so there's no way I could've voted with Furin.

On Day 5, I'd been telegraphing all day that I would not vote for San. FM voted for San. What, do you expect me to suddenly turn around and backstab the one guy I'd been trying to defend the entire day?

FM voted for two guys that I could not in good conscience vote for. Even if I wanted to vote with FM, I would not have done it.

EDIT: It also occurs to me that you would have accused me if I had continued to vote with FM on the last two days. Is this a personal crusade against me, or is this a sneaky way of trying to get to FM?

EDIT2: I see dferr beat me to the punch. My vote explanations here are still useful for people who want to conveniently ignore my reasons for voting.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 16:09:45
by Omega
Anvilfang wrote:Going with Wasabi today. Day 2 late game throw away vote and last nights late game bandwagon jump on seems very curious to me.


You're record ain't too pretty either my friend... Singletons/Throwaways early game coupled with bandwagons recently... Hrmm... San my be right about you.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 16:15:06
by Hellheart
While both of the leaders were on my radar because they've done no clears/suspicions/accusations, Meta4 feels more wolfy to me.

Maybe I can actually vote for a wolf for once! Fingers crossed! :P

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 16:16:48
by DastardlyOldMan
I believe that we're at:

Wasabi - 3 - rekard, Anvilfang, simple_simon
Meta4 - 3 - FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Hellheart
Anvilfang - 1 - San
stigmata - 1 - dferrantino
dferrantino - 1 - Ryvvn
Hellheart - 1 - Meta4

with 11 votes outstanding.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 16:21:54
by FurinMirado
Hellheart wrote:While both of the leaders were on my radar because they've done no clears/suspicions/accusations, Meta4 feels more wolfy to me.

Maybe I can actually vote for a wolf for once! Fingers crossed! :P

Don't look now, but you just voted with me again. :flail:

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 16:25:02
by Anvilfang
Omega wrote:
Anvilfang wrote:Going with Wasabi today. Day 2 late game throw away vote and last nights late game bandwagon jump on seems very curious to me.


You're record ain't too pretty either my friend... Singletons/Throwaways early game coupled with bandwagons recently... Hrmm... San my be right about you.

I'm posting from my phone so I'm not sure how the formatting will turn out.

What bandwagons recently? If you're refering to last night you'd probably notice that I voted ICB INTO a tie (Ravebomb was in the lead at that point.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 16:27:03
by Omega
And Smirker before, but honestly, who wasn't under his robes that day?

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 16:30:02
by Anvilfang
6 people jumped on Smirked after I did that night...

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 17:05:26
by FurinMirado
I want to reiterate these two lists (and add a third) in case I get mauled:

Ozy's Top 12 Probable Humans wrote:Here are my Top 12 Probable Humans, ranked roughly from most to least likely, along with a brief reason why:

1. Ryvvn-- only an actual Water Elemental would have known I was also targeted by Water on Night 2
2. Anzig-- he was Seered as Human by a member of the Human Alliance (HA) whom I trust
3. MEM-- put the killing vote on Mortus, which so far, was the most important vote of the game
4. FurinMirado-- his coming forward about his power usage on Day 1 saved Humans a lot of wasted time
5. spheno-- put key 3rd vote on Mortus on Day 3 instead of four other possible 2-vote bandwagons
6. necklessone-- very hard to believe he wouldn't have tried to kill me by now after how I vigged him on Day 2 last game
7. Aldax-- I have been targeted so often by the same Cheese Elemental that I learned his magic word: "fondue." Do a site search, and then do the math.
8. rekard-- he REALLY wanted Mortus dead on Day 3; obviously his second post didn't count, but it did bring attention to Mortus at a critical time.
9. Omega-- why would he switch from Ionitor to MEM on Day 2 if he's a Wolf?
10. Zark-- despite his often erratic behavior, it's hard for me to believe that the Wolves would needlessly sacrifice a Shadow Elemental in this skin due to the importance of corrupting powers in this skin.
11. Hellheart-- I believe I know what kind of Elemental he is (which is what I was hinting at on Day 5), and am reasonably sure that a player targeted by him did not have a corrupted power.
12. Anvilfang-- I don't really have a logical reason per se; I just got a good overall Human vibe from him. I guess what it was is that he seemed much more reasonable than a Wolf would be in his position.


I don't see any reason to vote for anyone on this list until we have lynched 2 more wolves. I copied Ozy's reasoning for each person so you can keep these in mind. There could possibly be 1 wolf among this group. If I had to choose I'd put my money on Anvilfang.

We should be focusing on the remaining players until we get down to the last 1 or 2 wolves:

The Remaining Unknowns wrote:AugenVonSauron
Clearasday
dferrantino
Meta4
RaveBomb
San
simple_simon
stigmata
Visigoth
Wasabi


A subset of this are the people I have absolutely ZERO read on. They are random and/or fairly inactive. They may be the most dangerous.

Complete Unknowns wrote:AugenVonSauron
Clearasday
San

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 17:06:37
by Anzig
Ferkryin'ouloud, I'm thinking about this game way too much. :?

San.

There, now I'm going to ignore this forum for a few hours.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 17:48:01
by sphenodont
Anzig, I'd love to vote with you, but I doubt the movement would pick up steam. This'll be my last post for tonight, cuz I am crashing soon, so I'll vote against the call for Wasabi, because he doesn't feel wolfy tonight and I groan a horseradish flavored flavor text. So, Meta4, not so much because you're wofly, but because the alt is less so.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 17:49:34
by necklessone
San

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 17:53:43
by Omega
I do not like these options... Hrmm...

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 17:59:50
by Visigoth
I think for me it's a bit of a toss up between Augenvonsauron and San tonight.

With San it's the complete lack of anything resembling sense in the votes. Just random votes for random reason so pretty much impossible to get any read on. Granted a vote on Iron Clad Burrito on Day 5, but if the whammy was going to be put in place on Ozymandias it gives the wolves pretty much free reign to vote on each other without worry.

With Augenvonsauron it's a little bit of the randomness in the votes. Potentially a point in his favor is the vote on Iron Clad Burrito on Day 4 since at the time it actually did put him in a dangerous position especially since he doesn't change his vote. Though the massive bandwagon on Smirker later took off making the vote pretty much a non-issue. On Day 2 he put Blindsniper83 into a tie and kind of got the ball rolling on making him a likely lynch target. Perhaps trying to slightly work to save Mister E. Meat (who had just been put into a tie with Ionitor at 3) but without knowing Mister E. Meat's affiliation it's hard to say. One on hand if they are both wolves you'd think the knowledge of what Mister E. Meat's power would do he'd know that Mister E. Meat really wasn't in any danger so no need to save him. On the other if Mister E. Meat is a human than it was pretty much an all humans in the lynch leads so dropping his vote anywhere in the group didn't really matter.

Part of me says to try and push the three people FurinMirado (which I can't believe I'm actually trusting this man) in his list up and let random decided it. With that said I think I'm going with San tonight. Might be a little more inclined to go with Augenvonsauron, but San already has a vote (now votes since I started writing this) so a little closer to getting in the running.

Also looking at that Smirker bandwagon it sure feels like there has to be at least one wolf somewhere in the tail end of those votes. Within the span of 13 minutes he picked up 4 votes with only Anzig and RaveBomb picking up one vote each. Even when it started Smirker had a 3 vote lead on the next person so the last four really didn't matter that much, but it sure seems like a nice place for a wolf to try and sneak a vote in with some other humans. Especially as the reason seemed to be "bandwagon, sure why not." Even Simple_Simon mentioned that he didn't like it, but still voted on him.

While it goes against "The List" I'm not entirely sold on Ozymandias's reason for including Mister E. Meat in that list. Sure he cast a vote on Mortus, but it wasn't a killing vote as it still put him one behind 7-Zark-7 with less than 4 minutes left in the day. Also Mortus hadn't voted (nor did he) so he could have easily dumped it on 7-Zark-7 to put a little more buffer between them without looking odd at all.

I'd also likely move stigmata a bit towards the human side simply due to the Day 1 vote. If he's a wolf that would put 3 of them on Rictus right out the gate. Seems a little dangerous to group that much on Day 1. Granted Ozymandias tried to get all of the wolves to vote on one person in a past game (and did get all but 1 if I recall) it's still a pretty risky play once some wolves are revealed.

Might move Wasabi a bit more towards the wolf side as other than the vote on Iron Clad Burrito he's stayed away from most of the action. And even then his vote came at the end of another burst of votes (3 votes in 12 minutes) that moved Iron Clad Burrito from 2nd with 5 votes to first with 8, 2 above RaveBomb, with his adding the 9th so feels like a little like trying to get some cred by jumping on doomed wolf's wagon. Closest he got was when Ozymandias got railroaded so if what FurinMirado is saying is true and the wolves controlled where the votes went him voting on FurinMirado was a pretty safe place to put a vote as it would be moved along with the rest of ours and not look odd.

Just throwing some things up and seeing if anything flies.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:26:50
by Wasabi
Meta4, then, in defense.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:33:37
by Omega
Still posting from iPhone, is there a vote count?

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:36:28
by necklessone
I have it at

Meta4 - 5 - FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Hellheart, sphenodont, Meta4
Wasabi - 3 - rekard, Anvilfang, simple_simon
San - 3 - Anzig, necklessone, Visigoth
Anvilfang - 1 - San
stigmata - 1 - dferrantino
dferrantino - 1 - Ryvvn
Hellheart - 1 - Meta4

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:38:46
by Omega
Meta4 voted for himself or Hellheart?

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:43:38
by Hellheart
Omega wrote:Meta4 voted for himself or Hellheart?

...Himself?

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:45:11
by Meta4
Omega wrote:Meta4 voted for himself or Hellheart?


Image

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:48:10
by Omega
*sigh*

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:55:15
by DastardlyOldMan
Count is correct, necklessone replaced Wasabi w/Meta4:

Meta4 - 5 - FurinMirado, RaveBomb, Hellheart, sphenodont, Wasabi
Wasabi - 3 - rekard, Anvilfang, simple_simon
San - 3 - Anzig, necklessone, Visigoth
Anvilfang - 1 - San
stigmata - 1 - dferrantino
dferrantino - 1 - Ryvvn
Hellheart - 1 - Meta4

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 18:58:22
by Hellheart
DastardlyOldMan wrote:Count is correct, necklessone replaced Wasabi w/Meta4:

I get the sneaking suspicion that an avalanche of votes will hit San in the last hour.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 19:39:36
by Omega
I've got no strong feeling and will am at a baseball game, so, [b]Anvilfang[/b]?

See you all tomorrow.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 19:41:19
by Mister E. Meat
I don't want to disappoint you Hellheart. San if only because he was in the lead when Ozy was thrown under the bus. Is it possible that he was being saved? His voting record isn't that strong this game either.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 19:47:34
by rekard
I don't know about Meta4. He voted for a wolf 3 times this game. Day 1, day 4 and yesterday. I don't see how that makes him suspicious. I think a wolf voting on the same wolf for several days would be a first.

We would just need a bit more of information to ascertain more data. AVS and Clear seem too hidden due to low activity, and have been missing votes. But AVS did a 3rd vote on ICB in the previous days.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 19:52:05
by Ryvvn
Based on current leaders, gotta throw my vote behind the oddity of San

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 19:56:06
by stigmata
I just woke up, so no time for analysis. But I'll go for wasabi on the basis of previous submissions.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 19:57:21
by Hellheart
Switching my vote to San, then. I want to be right once this game.

Seriously, just once. And the people on San have been right far more often, I think, than the ones on Meta4.

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 19:58:54
by Ryvvn
Hellheart wrote:Switching my vote to San, then. I want to be right once this game.

Seriously, just once. And the people on San have been right far more often, I think, than the ones on Meta4.


Well then, here's hoping for a three-peat!

Re: Day 7: Burrito-On-A-Stick

Posted: 15 Aug 2013, 20:00:38
by DastardlyOldMan
San - 6 - Anzig, necklessone, Visigoth, Mister E. Meat, Ryvvn, Hellheart
Wasabi - 4 - rekard, Anvilfang, simple_simon, stigmata
Meta4 - 4 - FurinMirado, RaveBomb, sphenodont, Wasabi
Anvilfang - 2 - San, Omega
stigmata - 1 - dferrantino
Hellheart - 1 - Meta4


((Day flip might take me a second, I'm a bit behind tonight.))