Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

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Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby necklessone » 13 Oct 2015, 19:33:55

((Hurried narration, don't want to delay longer.))

Things could be going better.

Much better.

For example, look at the gallows. See that dead man? Notice how he's not a demon?

Yeah, that's not good.

Okaros - Villager, Lynched

Also, remember how you used to have someone creeping around protecting you?

Admetus - GA, mauled

Your time is running out.


Vote Count
Okaros - 4 - Ryvvn, That PJ, RaveBomb, dferrantino
San - 3 - Okaros, 7-Zark-7, Rictus
7-Zark-7 - 2 - San, Admetus, Rictus
Rictus - 1 - RaveBomb, Visigoth
RaveBomb - 0 - 7-Zark-7

[+] Vote History
Ryvvn votes for Okaros
San votes for 7-Zark-7
That PJ votes for Okaros
Admetus votes for 7-Zark-7
RaveBomb retracted a vote for Rictus
Okaros votes for San
Rictus retracted a vote for 7-Zark-7
7-Zark-7 retracted a vote for RaveBomb
7-Zark-7 votes for San
Rictus votes for San
RaveBomb votes for Okaros
Visigoth votes for Rictus
dferrantino votes for Okaros
dferrantino was too late to vote for 7-Zark-7


Day ends in a little more than 23 hours.

The GM says this:


Lynch a loup or lose.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby RaveBomb » 13 Oct 2015, 20:57:25

Well... fuck.

San?
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Oct 2015, 21:48:14

(I colored myself green since I assume my humanity, regardless of my poor aim, is not in question.)

[+] Day 1
Rictus -1- Admetus
San -1- Rekard
PJ -1- Ryvvn
Rekard -1- San
Visigoth -1- Okaros
Ryvvn -1- PJ
Rave -1- Meta
PJ -2- Ionitor
San -2- CAD
Rekard -2- DOM
CAD -1- Dferr
Admetus -1- Rictus
Rave -2- Zark
Meta -1- Visigoth
CAD -2- Spheno
DOM -1- Blind
Admetus -2- Rave
Rave -3- Admetus
San -3- Rave
PJ -3- Twdog
Rekard -3- Okaros

Rave -3- Meta, Zark, Admetus
San -3- Rekard, CAD, Rave
PJ -3- Ryvvn, Ionitor, Twdog
Rekard -3- San, DOM, Okaros
CAD -2- Dferr, Spheno
Admetus -1- Rictus, Rave
Ryvvn -1- PJ
Meta -1- Visigoth
DOM -1- Blind
Visigoth -0- Okaros
Rictus -0- Admetus


[+] Day 2
Ryvvn -1- San
San -1- Okaros
Okaros -1- Ionitor
DOM -1- Ryvvn
Admetus -1- Rave
Dferr -1- Admetus
Ionitor -1- Dferr
Admetus -2- CAD
San -2- Meta
Twdog -1- PJ
Twdog -2- DOM
Meta -1- Visigoth
Twdog -3- Rictus
Meta -2- Zark

Twdog -3- PJ, DOM, Rictus
Admetus -2- Rave, CAD
San -2- Okaros, Meta
Meta -2- Visigoth, Zark
Ryvvn -1- San
Okaros -1- Ionitor
DOM -1- Ryvvn
Dferr -1- Admetus
Ionitor -1- Dferr

DNV: Twdog, Blind


[+] Day 3
DOM -1- Ryvvn
PJ -1- CAD
San -1- Meta
Meta -1- PJ
CAD -1- Rictus
Rictus -1- Rave
DOM -2- San
Rave -1- Zark
PJ -2- Admetus
CAD -2- Okaros
Meta -2- Visigoth
PJ -3- DOM
PJ -4- Dferr
Ryvvn -1- Ionitor
CAD -3- DOM
CAD -4- PJ

CAD -x- Rictus, Okaros, DOM, PJ
PJ -x- CAD, Admetus, DOM, Dferr
DOM -x- Ryvvn, San
Meta -x- PJ, Visigoth
San -x- Meta
Rictus -x- Rave
Rave -x- Zark
Ryvvn -x- Ionitor


[+] Day 4
Okaros -1- San
Ryvvn -1- Ionitor
Visigoth -1- Meta
PJ -1- Admetus
Ryvvn -2- Rave
Meta -1- PJ
Ionitor -1- Ryvvn
Meta -2- Zark
Ryvvn -3- Okaros
Meta -3- Visigoth
Okaros -2- Dferr
Ryvvn -4- Rictus
Ionitor <VIG< Ryvvn
Meta -4- Ryvvn

Meta -4- PJ, Zark, Visigoth, Ryvvn
Ryvvn -3- Ionitor, Rave, Okaros, Rictus
Okaros -2- San, Dferr
Visigoth -1- Meta
PJ -1- Admetus
Ionitor -0- Ryvvn


[+] Day 5
Okaros -1- Ryvvn
Zark -1- San
Okaros -2- PJ
Zark -2- Admetus
Rictus -1- Rave
San -1- Okaros
Zark -3- Rictus
Rave -1- Zark
San -2- Zark
San -3- Rictus
Okaros -3- Rave
Rictus -1- Visigoth
Okaros -4- Dferr

Okaros -4- Ryvvn, PJ, Rave, Dferr
San -3- Okaros, Zark, Rictus
Zark -2- San, Admetus, Rictus
Rictus -1- Rave, Visigoth
Rave -0- Zark

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby Ryvvn » 13 Oct 2015, 21:51:12

Looking over my own charts there, but not having gone back to look at posts yet, the three that immediately stick out to me as a group are: Rave, Rictus, and Zark.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby San » 14 Oct 2015, 03:18:12

Ravebomb

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby dferrantino » 14 Oct 2015, 07:49:29

Oy, ok...we're at lynch-or-lose. Going to try to squeeze a few posts of analysis in. Fair warning, it's just going to be a brain dump and may lack cohesion. I haven't been able to devote as much time as I'd have liked to this game (as evidenced by that masterful cock-up last night...though I still blame Okaros for preventing me from fixing my mistake).

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby dferrantino » 14 Oct 2015, 08:00:17

Pure vote analysis (thanks Ryvvn)
Rave, Rictus, PJ stand out. Lots of influential votes.
Interesting interactions between San, Rictus, and Rave, though they seem to cancel out.
Rictus-Rave-Zark? Odd patterns all over the place.
Visigoth flying under the radar (as is his MO), except for his vote on Meta4. Wagons all human, but vote pushes self and PJ out of danger.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby Rictus » 14 Oct 2015, 08:02:14

note: started this post earlier at work before Dferr started his brain dump.

Ryvvn wrote:Looking over my own charts there, but not having gone back to look at posts yet, the three that immediately stick out to me as a group are: Rave, Rictus, and Zark.


I agree with you that Rave/Zark seem to be on the same team (and me, I guess). Like I said yesterday, I was suspicious of R/Z but then yesterday got more interested in Dferr / PJ and San or Visigoth.

Looking at that cluster, I think dferrantino's last minute snipe is either a human cock-up or a masterful wolf. So more humanish. Visigoth's last post from the night made him seem more wolfish to me, and I still believe that there is a Visigoth - ThatPJ connection.

So I'm going to stick with Visigoth. However, I will be around in the later evening to move if we get scattered too much.

(I guess my problem is that I see 5 or 6 potential wolves.)
Charming, to the last.
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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby dferrantino » 14 Oct 2015, 09:30:58

Every time I read through the first few days I keep coming up with arguments against Okaros. Which is, obviously, super unhelpful.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby dferrantino » 14 Oct 2015, 12:45:48

7-Zark-7: Everything about his posts has seemed genuine. Either he's legitimately busy with work and travel, or he's a wolf taking advantage of being legitimately busy with work and travel. I don't really have any suspicions of him except in combination with other players as mentioned above.

dferrantino: An all-around stand-up guy. Nothing bad to say about him one bit.

RaveBomb: Feels less chaotic than normal. Generally an indication of being special or a wolf. Since both of the specials are dead...

Rictus: Hard to not draw a connection with him and a whole bunch of others, but it could also be coincidental. Reading back through the threads, I keep getting stuck on Okaros's assessment yesterday:
Okaros wrote:On Rictus, I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf due to the Ryvvn vote. As a wolf, he'd know that Ryvvn and Meta4 were human so I'd expect him avoid making a move like that because of the attention it would draw. With no way to know that Ryvvn was the vigilante, he'd have to expect that the move would make it look like he was saving meta4 and that's heat I don't think he'd normally be willing to draw as a wolf.

It's hard to disagree with, though up until that point Rictus had been flying mostly under the radar. Also, given the heat both Ryvvn and Meta4 were getting at that time, it may have felt reasonable to throw a bit of chaos into the mix and get the other lynched the next day. Obviously the Vig shot throws a wrench into that whole idea.

Also he accused me of being a wolf.

Ryvvn: Obviously human, so yeah. Vote for him and you're dumb.

San: Abnormally aggressive this game. San's always hard to read, and he's been lynched as a human for similar behavior in the past, but I'm pretty sure this is the first time I've seen him Disregard that, apparently I confused San with Meta4. I have nothing to say about him at this point, aside from it being a bad idea to lynch him today unless you have literally no negative feelings about any other player.

That PJ: Been suspicious of him since the shenanigans at the end of day 1. He's the only one of the four for whom all of their voters are confirmed human, but he was also a spectator. He's narrowly escaped death twice, but that's less telling about him and more about the voters around him.

Visigoth: I can never read him, so I'll be useless here. 4 votes in a row on Meta4 is impressive, though.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby That PJ » 14 Oct 2015, 12:50:20

Rictus wrote:(I guess my problem is that I see 5 or 6 potential wolves.)

So... everyone except you and Ryvvn.

I read back through everything. The aggravating thing is, much like dferr noticed, the posts and actions that leap out to me as wolves we've mostly already killed unsuccessfully. meta4, Okaros, Ionitor, DOM... Yesterday things got really weird, in my opinion, particularly in some of the Rictus/Ravebomb back-and-forth which has me suspicious of the both of them. They both seem to be pointing at everyone, which strikes me as a rather wolfy thing to do ("who will latch onto one of the people I list?").

San and Visigoth I've got no read at all on, and I'm inclined to discount them for that reason (for now). Visigoth voting solidly for meta4 for so long looks more like a human mistake to me than a wolf. I would expect a wolf to be more aware of that kind of thing (but sillier things have happened). I don't think either one is particularly constructive for conversation.

Ryvvn is about as close to a confirmed human as we've got. necklessone theoretically could've snuck a vigilante role in among the wolves, but I don't think so. Not worth pursuing.

dferr had the weird botched tie vote yesterday, which I guess wouldn't ordinarily be all that unusual except that he ignored ties entirely to try and kill me Day 3. Maybe he expected late day shenanigans or something (and I did snipe to save myself, so...). I remember Ionitor's vote that day seeming far more suspicious because he voted after dferr and didn't even push up a potential tie, but we all know he's human now. All of which is strange to me, though I'm not willing to bet the game on that little.

Which brings me around to Zark, and when it comes to vote history and placement, he just seems the more straight-forwardly suspicious player. I find it's easy to get distracted by tone reads and anomalous acts and stuff, but at the end of the day it's usually placement and timing that finds the wolf. He appears to be pushing bandwagons in the second position a lot (something I find suspicious) and is generally voting later in the day, but in ways that otherwise seem designed not to draw overt attention.

(pre-post edit: just got notified about dferr's post, but haven't read it)
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby necklessone » 14 Oct 2015, 16:11:59

7-Zark-7 - 2 - Ryvvn, That PJ
RaveBomb - 1 - San
San - 1 - RaveBomb
Visigoth - 1 - Rictus

Missing Votes
7-Zark-7
Visigoth
dferrantino

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby 7-zark-7 » 14 Oct 2015, 16:37:52

Sadly I don't have much to offer in reads or analysis this time around. I kind of wish you had lynched me yesterday, as it would have been a wash parity wise, and we'd still have Okaros who felt human to me (if I didn't feel that way, voting him would have been easy.

I'm back on Ravebomb. I will grant "he feels different" is a poor justification given I feel different this time around. Dferr has it right, insanely busy with a three site facility tour... I'm lucky if I get to glance at the forums early in the day and come back to vote at the end.

Anyway, I'm heading home tonight, 8:45 flight so I won't be around for any last minute action. Please try not to lynch me (it's my birthday, and lynch or lose is a bad enough spot)

Less in a bit,

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"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby dferrantino » 14 Oct 2015, 17:02:33

There are too many votes on too many people. We need to consolidate to keep the game alive, otherwise the wolves are just going to throw their weight around at the end of the day.

Following Ryvvn onto 7-zark-7 since he's the only confirmed human around here, though I feel way more confident about Rictus or Rave.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby Ryvvn » 14 Oct 2015, 17:26:57

dferrantino wrote:There are too many votes on too many people. We need to consolidate to keep the game alive, otherwise the wolves are just going to throw their weight around at the end of the day.

Following Ryvvn onto 7-zark-7 since he's the only confirmed human around here, though I feel way more confident about Rictus or Rave.

I feel both of them could be wolves, especially with Zark crying "distracted" and voting up Rave, but my reads have been horrible this game; so I wouldn't follow me based on human faith.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby Visigoth » 14 Oct 2015, 17:41:56

Looking at just the votes I'm thinking there's a wolf between San and RaveBomb. Likely not both since it wouldn't make sense on Day 1 for RaveBomb to put another wolf into a tie with him when there were a number of others at 2 votes. Relatedly I can kind of see a Rictus/San situation as well based manly on Day 5 votes. I'm kind of learning more towards Rictus due to the odd Day 2 vote, but does fall into an odd place of why draw attention (which really didn't happen) to yourself by breaking a tie on Day 2. If this wasn't lynch or lose I'd probably vote on San just to try and resolve those for myself. Shitty thing to do, but sometimes if there's no better choice losing someone for information can be the better move.

Might toss dferrantino on the list now due to that vote and makes me wonder about 7-Zark-7. Just because Ryvvn is a confirmed human doesn't mean he has some special insight so sheeping behind his vote feels off to me. But 7-Zark-7 is the last unknown on RaveBomb on Day 1 so could be a wolf sitting in that spot.

Man, not sure about this. Gonna have to think about this a bit more.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby Visigoth » 14 Oct 2015, 17:56:11

Looking at the votes 7-Zark-7 is getting lynched tonight unless people already on him move. He's already ahead by a vote and RaveBomb can easily move to him from San to keep him ahead in case he gets another vote.

Gonna go with RaveBomb.

Thinking that it's RaveBomb, That PJ and dferrantino as the wolves. That's just my feeling at this time.

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Re: Sixième Jour - Heure Fatidique

Postby RaveBomb » 14 Oct 2015, 18:48:06

ARGH. I am not a wolf.

I do not want to lose this game to a wolf shutout.
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If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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