Day 3: Kibble

Try not to sweat too much.
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 13:35:16

Current Vote Tally:
RaveBomb - 8 - ICB, simple_simon, Mister Furin, Ryvvn, Rictus, Nitestorm, Aldax, stigmata
Ryvvn - 5 - Smirker, Admetus, Ozymandias, Omega, twdog
FurinMirado - 3 - leiden, San, Okaros
Ionitor - 1 - rekard
Okaros - 1 - Ionitor
Ozymandias - 1 - dferrantino
Nitestorm - 1 - Griffypoo

Still to Vote - 6 - Blindsniper, DOM, Rave, redead, spheno, Visigoth

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ryvvn » 05 Sep 2013, 13:36:57

rekard wrote:Hmm. Ryyvn's excuses don't sound too good for me. The fact that there are prizes muddles things a bit, specially if we have greedy people aiming for prizes. Tsk tsk.

Given the sheer number of votes on Mortus, there have to be at least 1-2 wolves there. Maybe even 3.

Hmm, tough to say right now.

I'm really not sure how me stating that my behavior has remained consistent is a poor excuse. The only difference between this game and last, was that I happened to land one of my last minute vote switches onto a then lynched wolf (of course I also had the convenience of being able to role claim a defensibly human role by Ozy). For people who like to use previous behaviors to make wolf reads, some of you are doing a piss-poor job of it regarding me as your only real argument is, "He did this stuff like he did last game but this time it just smells wolfy."

Seems more likely those who I'd expect to make better arguments are actually just wolves themselves. I'm not expecting any defenses I make today to cause anyone to switch off of me, but just want it said whenever I do end up dead and it gets revealed that I am what I claim to be.

And, yes, I'll admit to being greedy for the prize, because I'm once again a powerless role -- I was essentially last game as well; so excuse me for selfishly trying to spice up my own playability a bit.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 05 Sep 2013, 13:41:03

I like beef. Hamburgers, steak, all those things are great.

I like lamb, too. Leg of lamb, lamb chops. Those things are really good.

So how the hell did "Lupine" combine two great things and come up with . . . this? This stuff doesn't taste anything like a steak mixed with a leg of lamb.

Admetus for me, today, and I'm not random.org'ing that. He's been triggering my instincts second only to someone-I-can't-vote-for today. No rational reason, mushroom-induced rationale, or logical argument for it; just getting a wolf read from him.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 05 Sep 2013, 13:54:08

I'm still on Ravebomb, having been busy all day. Not terribly sure about changing it yet. It just means Hellheart made a series of high-profile blunders this time around. (Sorry, Hellheart -- I really wanted Ravebomb dead first, it would have been cleaner.)

It's not like Ravebomb is actually cleared as human -- he hasn't done anything active one way or another to convince me. And we have a smaller pool to choose from.

----
Day 1:
FurinMirado -6- Omega, Mister E. Meat, Mortus, twdog, Ozymandias*, Ionitor

Ozymandias was a pivotal vote; he sniped with 2 minutes to go and put Furin in the lead. Ionitor immediately followed, but has a built-in self-defense excuse. Ozy claims greed.

----
Day 2:
Mortus-9- Okaros, FurinMirado (MEM 2), DastardlyOldMan, RaveBomb, Admetus, Ozymandias, Nitestorm, Ionitor*, Ryvvn*

Again, Ionitor in the last 5 minutes... his vote tied Mortus with Ravebomb; Ryvvn flipped from Rave to Mortus in the last minute, to go from a 50% chance of having a prize to a 100% chance.

Ozymandias kept the voting close, but there were a couple of hours remaining. Nitestorm's was in quasi-self defense, and could just have easily gone to Ravebomb instead.

Rekard: You realize that the rationale you're using for Ryvvn (not liking his vote on Day 2) applies rather equally to Ozymandias on Day 1, when he was the killing vote on FM for ostensibly the same reason.

Look at Furin E. Meat, though, being all 2nd-vote on both of them.

The Meat v. 2, FurinMirado, is setting off alarm bells right now. Hopefully this brings things a LITTLE closer to... well, close... so people have viable candidates to choose from.

HEY NECKLESSONE I JUST SWAPPED VOTES mmmkay :)

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ionitor » 05 Sep 2013, 14:00:32

DastardlyOldMan wrote:I like beef. Hamburgers, steak, all those things are great.

I like lamb, too. Leg of lamb, lamb chops. Those things are really good.

So how the hell did "Lupine" combine two great things and come up with . . . this? This stuff doesn't taste anything like a steak mixed with a leg of lamb.

Admetus for me, today, and I'm not random.org'ing that. He's been triggering my instincts second only to someone-I-can't-vote-for today. No rational reason, mushroom-induced rationale, or logical argument for it; just getting a wolf read from him.


I'm not a big fan of any of the top 3 (though I will pick one later if necessary), but I'm on board with Admetus as an alternative. His posts have a certain "even-ness" to them that looks familiar-ish, looking over previous games.
Last edited by Ionitor on 05 Sep 2013, 17:46:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ionitor » 05 Sep 2013, 14:13:05

Okaros wrote:You know, I love cats. They're tasty, especially grilled or with peanut butter. But you know what doesn't go well with cat? Salads. That's a disgusting combination, and when it's been in the fridge so long you can't even figure out the flavor it's time to clean MysteryMirado out of the fridge.


((I think I've talked myself out my Day 1/2 Ozy+Ionitor suspicions:

Point: Ozy and Ionitor both sniped at EOD1.
Point: If those two were protecting either Simon or Ionitor, only one snipe would have been enough and I refuse to believe Ionitor didn't know about Ozy's snipe when he hit "submit". Thus I think it's unlikely those two were coordinating to protect anyone. Perhaps a friend/foe test by Ionitor, arranged by PM?
Point: On Day Two, they both voted together again on Mortus.

I can buy the "Ozy sniped and thought he could get away with it argument" on day one, but in-tandem with Ionitor and then following-up with a lynching of Mortus is so shamelessly and completely all-in that I have a hard time seeing it coming from those two if they were wolves.

Thus, in the absence of strong evidence for others at the moment, I'll go with the newly-reborn Furin in an effort to get bandwagon-related voting information and see if anyone has any particular loyalties to this version of him. I'm not getting any particular wolf-vibes from anyone that I'd be willing to trust just yet, and I'm very curious to see where the original pile of people that jumped on RaveBomb wind up. I think that's going to be educational.

Also, I still think the "OGP" is a bad idea. Too soon by at least a day, perhaps two. I'm concerned with the seer roles being revealed, due to the wolves being able to analyze our Day Two results better than we would, but I'm as concerned if not more with the *non* Seer roles being revealed. If a significant number of seers come forward it will create an easy target list for the wolves in eliminating what I'm guessing are at least one more vig, 3 or 4 networkers and the Jailer. We're down three plain contestants so far, and that drastically increases the odds of a random non-seer being a valuable maul target. If we mass-reveal we'd better make sure it's worth the cost of losing more of our non-seer roles and the possibility of our Sane/Confused seers going out the window as well. The longer we wait, the more seerings we have at reveal-time. The more seerings we have, the less of a knowledge advantage the wolves will have in the analysis.


Is that the insightful commentary you've been looking for, Ionitor? :P I would've preferred to wait another day or two for more information, but the Ozy plan really needs full debate/discussion now before it wrecks us.
))

Yes, Okaros, that's more what I'm looking for. You aren't off my radar, but that vote was more of a poke than anything else.

I also agree that the non-seers may actually be more valuable than the seers. We may be better off by assuming that the seers are worthless unless proven otherwise, since the wolves are likely to leave seers alive specifically to control the reveals in the late game. A few more reveals on day 5-6 seems best to me, though I may change my mind. At the very least, we may want to have mass "seer result lists" at that point, where everyone puts one out regardless of whether they are a seer or not.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2013, 14:31:58

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:

Rekard: You realize that the rationale you're using for Ryvvn (not liking his vote on Day 2) applies rather equally to Ozymandias on Day 1, when he was the killing vote on FM for ostensibly the same reason



Yep. Hence why vote has not gone to them. Difference being though is that Ozy did almost the exact same thing on the Pirates game, but still I'm considering the options and watching what people vote for, and the arguments they bring.

One step at a time.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby necklessone » 05 Sep 2013, 14:42:46

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:HEY NECKLESSONE I JUST SWAPPED VOTES mmmkay :)

Gotcha.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby necklessone » 05 Sep 2013, 14:43:11

RaveBomb - 7 - simple_simon, FurinMirado, Ryvvn, Rictus, Nitestorm, Aldax, Stigmata
Ryvvn - 5 - Smirker, Admetus, Ozymandias, Omega, twdog
FurinMirado - 4 - leiden, San, Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito
Admetus - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Ionitor
Ionitor - 1 - rekard
Nitestorm - 1 - Griffypoo
Ozymandias - 1 - dferrantino

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby necklessone » 05 Sep 2013, 14:48:18

Tonight is going to be busy for me, so consider this a final reminder to get night powers in and vote people. I don't want to have to WoG anyone.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Admetus » 05 Sep 2013, 14:55:57

Ionitor wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:I like beef. Hamburgers, steak, all those things are great.

I like lamb, too. Leg of lamb, lamb chops. Those things are really good.

So how the hell did "Lupine" combine two great things and come up with . . . this? This stuff doesn't taste anything like a steak mixed with a leg of lamb.

Admetus for me, today, and I'm not random.org'ing that. He's been triggering my instincts second only to someone-I-can't-vote-for today. No rational reason, mushroom-induced rationale, or logical argument for it; just getting a wolf read from him.


I'm not a big fan of any of the top 3 (though I will pick one later if necessary), but I'm on board with Admetus as an alternative. His posts have a certain "even-ness" to them that looks familiar-ish, looking over previous games.

I'm not sure what you mean by that. Confidence? You guys shouldn't be telling me I make good reads, then.

I've tried to learn the lessons as I go, and one of the lessons from Archer was not to go too all-in on a confrontation. Even though it turned out I was right. This last evening / this morning when I was pretty confident I had a wolf, I made the case and left it out there to be judged. So that's wolfy-Ryvvn post, then weak-Ryvvn-counterargument that seemed like stuff I'd already covered. But the third post really has me questioning it. It's just (again) an appeal to "you'll see when I'm dead." I feel like a wolf who had people coaching him in a private forum would have been more aggressive in defense. The first post still seems very wolfy to me. The third one not at all. And if Ryvvn was a wolf being abandoned by his mates, you'd expect more of a pile-up, as in at least one quick one-word vote post. I've seen a lot of people in this group do that.

I'll change to FurinMirado. He's on my list from yesterday as a person in the right vote position to be wolfy. Best of limited options at the moment.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Smirker » 05 Sep 2013, 15:12:49

Ionitor wrote:FWIW, Ryvvvvvn is striking me as human; frankly, I think he'd be playing more cautiously as a wolf.

I disagree, I think he got carried away and made a mistake and the nature of his EOD voting and breaking the tie strikes me as more of a 'oh-shit-my-excuse-sucks' wolf desperation play than anything else. Also, since he s now stating he is just a vanilla contestant and not a seer, it also minimizes the damage if he did just do a greedy human action. Frankly, Ionitor you strike me as distinctly untrustworthy as well (and I don't think it's just because of last time we did this sort of variant). Your defense of Ryvvn only raises you in suspiciousness in my book. But, all things will be revealed in time.

BTW, I don't think seers should reveal today unless they are in jeopardy at EOD -- if even then.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Blindsniper83 » 05 Sep 2013, 15:31:25

Ryvvn Come on down, you the next contestant for the Lynch is, wait wrong show
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Visigoth » 05 Sep 2013, 15:35:52

Ducks and hides behind the Magic Eye sales booth.
First the Easter Bunny gets attacked and now people are shooting other people. What kind of mall is this? Where's the damn security at?
Waits a bit and after hearing no other shots gets up and resumes his task
But of course it seems I can't even get to that without being bothered to submit some vote. It also seems that there's an additional petition being submitted about revealing our visions... I can't even see the damn sailboat and they want visions? Seems a bit soon for that even with the reduced number of people on this list to pick from. If anything it seems these other contestants are more a danger to the Seers so why help the wolves by helping to point out likely people to vote out.

Well this list isn't as long as the last one which is a shame since some of the people that aren't on the list are bugging me a bit more than what I can pick from. Hmm, I think
Image
Nitestorm
is getting the vote. I know their shtick is so long running and practically a parody of itself at this point but something is still feeling off about it. The last time I had the feeling both were wolves so I'm going on that hunch again. Why Nitestorm over Ozymandias? Feels like one might be special and kind of leaning towards him as that special. Perhaps the over-the-top antics are just that and a way to both draw and then dismiss any attention.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby RaveBomb » 05 Sep 2013, 15:42:41

I'll take self preservation for $300
Ryvvendale

Who is going down?
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 15:51:29

With ~2 hours left:

RaveBomb - 7 - simple_simon, FurinMirado, Ryvvn, Rictus, Nitestorm, Aldax, Stigmata
Ryvvn - 6 - Smirker, Ozymandias, Omega, twdog, blindsniper, Rave
FurinMirado - 5 - leiden, San, Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, Admetus
Admetus - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Ionitor
Nitestorm - 2 - Griffypoo, Visigoth
Ionitor - 1 - rekard
Ozymandias - 1 - dferrantino

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ryvvn » 05 Sep 2013, 16:04:34

RaveBomb wrote:I'll take self preservation for $300
Ryvvendale

Who is going down?

Sad thing is I'd be more inclined to FurinMeat than you, but have to keep my vote on you now, unless a late pile up comes on him later.

Oh, also, I'd like to remind people who keep questioning my actions from last night, of this post earlier that day, like just a few hours and my first post after Neck made the announcement of the prizes:
Ryvvn wrote:
Necklessone wrote:"Did someone inquire about today's fabulous prizes and penalties?" asks the host as the game returns from commercial break. "Well, today we have one of two amazing prize drawings!" Two large boxes are slowly raised through trapdoors in the center of the stage, one green and one purple. "Anyone who votes for the lynch leader today is going to get to draw from one one of those two boxes: the green if they choose a wolf, the purple if it was another poor contestant."

Leaving my vote on DoM for now, but will absolutely be switching to the clear wagon leader later on -- as I'm sure most everyone will who wants to see whatever that prize is, so I don't want to hear tomorrow about how "wolfy" today's last minute jumps are! If anything, wolves have probably already voted to build a wagon on a human and get a prize.


edit: for those who'd like visual proof, it's on page 2 and was said 4 hours before EoD.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Simple_Simon » 05 Sep 2013, 16:10:31

Some musings ...

Firstly I'm fairly confident we've found a wolf in RaveBomb, yesterday I voted for him because I figured out a funny line to use his name in. Today it's because of the most blatant save attempt I've seen yet. I'm not here to argue about that, what I'm saying is that we're watching him get saved again today. Why oh why would the wolves risk so much so early? Is RaveBomb just that important to their team? Maybe their seer or whatever. That's not important, he's being saved again and you're all watching it happen.

I'm going to quickly run down my list of people I think are wolves and people I think are not ...

Blindsniper is very likely a wolf. I'm not saying I blame him for shooting Hellheart, there were plenty of valid reasons, but the one that everyone seems to have glossed over is that his (Hellheart's) inadvertent defense of RaveBomb was making it harder to keep RaveBomb alive (for the wolves). Thus the order was given to silence this fool (Hellheart)before he made matters worse for them. I know it's highly likely that there is at least one more undiscovered Vig, however one has been killed and he was a contestant. So it's 50/50 if BS is a contestant or not, but given the nature and timing of the shot I'm more willing to suggest he's 80% or higher wolf at this point.

I'm going to also tip the current iteration of FurinMirado is a wolf as well at 75% or higher chance. This is more gut than anything else, it just feels that way (and I'm sure by the time I've posted this he will have switched his vote to Ryvvn to save RaveBomb again for the day).

Ozymandias is pretty clearly a wolf. Though I'm not going to say a really high chance of it though because someone must have looked up his skirt by now (as was so aptly put earlier). The lack of any clear pressure towards him in that regards just irks me. Not to mention he tried (and then later abandoned) to get all the seers to reveal with what I see as a threat, "it's okay because I know who 6 of you are anyway". He knows that with the limited information we have and the myriad of seers available in the game, plus the length of time to confirm any data means that it's at the very least 2 days before we're even concrete about who the good seers are (with the exception of Aldax, see below). The only people that information benefits this early in this game is the wolves. They can pretty easily and quickly test the accuracy (at least for affiliation) of our seers, and killing them (the good ones) before they provide us any fruits.

DOM get's a nod as a wolf as well. A singleton vote to try and start a new bandwagon where (lol I just dropped off the face of the planet here...) there hadn't been one before? Oh no I figured this out he's voting with Ionitor and I believe Ionitor is a wolf so makes him suspect, not as much just there ya'know.

Ionitor climbs on board. I predict we'll see Admetus mauled tonight.

On the good side ...

I'm going to Nod Ryvvn, seems to me he's the fodder in a wolf vote sandwich.

I'm going to nod Admetus as well, anyone Ionitor votes for is a friend of mine today.

I'm also nodding at Aldax right now because if I'm right, he's right. Given the tomfoolery we're seeing afoot I'm going to assume he's right.

Everyone else I have no thoughts (yet) on.

What I am proposing is we saddle up on RaveBomb, this tests the credibility of Aldax who's looking pretty good to me right now given what I think is going on. Hell we don't even need to protect him tonight, he's untouchable. So if he's accurate then we get at least 2 more good results from him before he does get mauled.

Anyway these are my thoughts, carry on.

((edit: Oh holy shit I can't type while <redacted>, it'll be a while before I fully fix this pile of shit of a post :flail:, I apologize in advance to your brains and your eyes.))

((edit: repairs in italics, I'm going to go drown myself now))

((edit: can't type, can't type ... FUCKING DIDN'T EVEN SPELL "CAN'T" RIGHT)
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby FurinMirado » 05 Sep 2013, 16:37:36

Finally back, with a whole two hours left. Let's see the arguments for me being a Wolf:

leiden wrote:As much as I wanted to put a vote in for Hellheart, he isn't a wolf. Wolf's are cunning. He is not cunning. I will also continue to advocate not voting for Ryvvn.

FurinMirado because reading is hard. (Misinterpreted it, thought that was for tomorrow. Derp)

I also stand by my claims about Hellheart.


Reading is hard, therefore FurinMirado must be a wolf. Pure genius.

San wrote:FurinMirado


The most minimal of Minimalists.

Okaros wrote:You know, I love cats. They're tasty, especially grilled or with peanut butter. But you know what doesn't go well with cat? Salads. That's a disgusting combination, and when it's been in the fridge so long you can't even figure out the flavor it's time to clean MysteryMirado out of the fridge.


((REALLY LONG TEXT ABOUT OZY AND IONITOR BEING HUMAN))


Cat + Salad = Wolf. Truly you have a dizzying intellect.

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:<snipped text about other people>

Look at Furin E. Meat, though, being all 2nd-vote on both of them.

The Meat v. 2, FurinMirado, is setting off alarm bells right now. Hopefully this brings things a LITTLE closer to... well, close... so people have viable candidates to choose from.


So Mister E. Mirado was #2 on both bandwagons. This is actually the best argument yet, but that's not saying much. If I clipped out an important part of your argument let me know (wouldn't be the first time). First of all, Wolf FurinMirado actively avoids the beginnings of bandwagons. He has been around long enough to know not to show up in the #2 or #3 spot. Secondly, my reasoning for my Day 2 vote was that there had to be a Wolf in the FurinMirado bandwagon and it was most likely Mortus in the #3 spot. Does it seem reasonable that Wolf Furin would implicate himself by drawing attention to that bandwagon and someone that voted right after MEM?

Admetus wrote:I'll change to FurinMirado. He's on my list from yesterday as a person in the right vote position to be wolfy. Best of limited options at the moment.


This is very nearly the same argument as ICB is making, correct? I was in the first few voting positions so I must be a wolf. See my counter-argument above.

Well, sometimes you're forced into working an 11 hour day and then people decide to lynch you for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

C'est la vie.


Now time to review the arguments for Ravebomb and Ryvvn before I make my vote final.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ryvvn » 05 Sep 2013, 16:51:41

FurinMirado wrote:Finally back, with a whole two hours left. Let's see the arguments for me being a Wolf:

leiden wrote:As much as I wanted to put a vote in for Hellheart, he isn't a wolf. Wolf's are cunning. He is not cunning. I will also continue to advocate not voting for Ryvvn.

FurinMirado because reading is hard. (Misinterpreted it, thought that was for tomorrow. Derp)

I also stand by my claims about Hellheart.


Reading is hard, therefore FurinMirado must be a wolf. Pure genius.

In slight defense of this first one, instead of striking his original illegitimate vote he removed it and replaced your name there, and then was referring to misunderstanding the original rules for today's voting.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Admetus » 05 Sep 2013, 16:51:59

FurinMirado wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:<snipped text about other people>

Look at Furin E. Meat, though, being all 2nd-vote on both of them.

The Meat v. 2, FurinMirado, is setting off alarm bells right now. Hopefully this brings things a LITTLE closer to... well, close... so people have viable candidates to choose from.


So Mister E. Mirado was #2 on both bandwagons. This is actually the best argument yet, but that's not saying much. If I clipped out an important part of your argument let me know (wouldn't be the first time). First of all, Wolf FurinMirado actively avoids the beginnings of bandwagons. He has been around long enough to know not to show up in the #2 or #3 spot. Secondly, my reasoning for my Day 2 vote was that there had to be a Wolf in the FurinMirado bandwagon and it was most likely Mortus in the #3 spot. Does it seem reasonable that Wolf Furin would implicate himself by drawing attention to that bandwagon and someone that voted right after MEM?

Admetus wrote:I'll change to FurinMirado. He's on my list from yesterday as a person in the right vote position to be wolfy. Best of limited options at the moment.


This is very nearly the same argument as ICB is making, correct? I was in the first few voting positions so I must be a wolf. See my counter-argument above.

Well, sometimes you're forced into working an 11 hour day and then people decide to lynch you for being in the wrong place at the wrong time.

C'est la vie.


Now time to review the arguments for Ravebomb and Ryvvn before I make my vote final.

I outlined my argument that focused on the early spots of your bandwagon Day 1 in this post. You say as a wolf you avoid #2 or #3 spots, but you didn't place that vote. MEM did.

As I said, you're the best of the limited options, to me. There might not even BE a wolf in this set of targets. Among the other vote leaders, we've been over Ryvvn and I'm still a bit surprised people are voting for RaveBomb. I thought those votes would fade after the vig. But it seems some people have their own reasons, like Simon above.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby FurinMirado » 05 Sep 2013, 16:56:22

Ryvvn wrote:Oh, also, I'd like to remind people who keep questioning my actions from last night, of this post earlier that day, like just a few hours and my first post after Neck made the announcement of the prizes:
Ryvvn wrote:
Necklessone wrote:"Did someone inquire about today's fabulous prizes and penalties?" asks the host as the game returns from commercial break. "Well, today we have one of two amazing prize drawings!" Two large boxes are slowly raised through trapdoors in the center of the stage, one green and one purple. "Anyone who votes for the lynch leader today is going to get to draw from one one of those two boxes: the green if they choose a wolf, the purple if it was another poor contestant."

Leaving my vote on DoM for now, but will absolutely be switching to the clear wagon leader later on -- as I'm sure most everyone will who wants to see whatever that prize is, so I don't want to hear tomorrow about how "wolfy" today's last minute jumps are! If anything, wolves have probably already voted to build a wagon on a human and get a prize.


edit: for those who'd like visual proof, it's on page 2 and was said 4 hours before EoD.


That cinches it for me. I was also quite certain Mortus was a Wolf and quite interested in finding out what the prize was. The only difference is that I voted early while Ryvvn voted late.

As for Ravebomb:

Aldax wrote:So, as I'm not one of the unlucky I think It's time to say this piece of info before it is too late:

As of Night 1 I had a vision of Ravebomb, in my vision he was at the beginning just a normal human, at least until a moon came out. Then he started turning into a monster, and the words "Wolf" appeared in front of him. As I believed that revealing this yesterday would lead to me being mauled, I tried to disguise it by "Random.org", resulting on a backfire by some of the other players (who may/may not be wolves trying to defend their buddy). I'll stay cautious.

But on Night 2, I visited a person who voted for me, his name was Hellheart, and I saw him as an almost omniscient being, surrounded by the same kind of visions I had. The word "Seer" burned brightly just above his head.


Tis' what I saw


Finding Ravebomb's true role will shed more light on Aldax's seer-type. My vote stays where it is.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 05 Sep 2013, 17:01:28

FurinMirado wrote:So Mister E. Mirado was #2 on both bandwagons. This is actually the best argument yet, but that's not saying much. [...] First of all, Wolf FurinMirado actively avoids the beginnings of bandwagons. He has been around long enough to know not to show up in the #2 or #3 spot. Secondly, my reasoning for my Day 2 vote was that there had to be a Wolf in the FurinMirado bandwagon and it was most likely Mortus in the #3 spot. Does it seem reasonable that Wolf Furin would implicate himself by drawing attention to that bandwagon and someone that voted right after MEM?


Frankly, here's what I'm looking at.

1. My case against Ravebomb has been severely crippled. I don't think it's DEAD, but it's been harmed.
2. You (as Mister E. Meat) and Mortus were my prime suspects at the end of day 1. One of you is still alive.
2.5. We needed to create more voting options so Ravebomb isn't a runaway train. Gotta help with the analysis.
3. You're not helping the case by telling me what Wolf You would do. That tells me that you know your wolf tells and can mask them whenever you like.

It's not a strong case at all, I'll grant you. However, it's what I've got.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby FurinMirado » 05 Sep 2013, 17:03:53

Admetus wrote:I outlined my argument that focused on the early spots of your bandwagon Day 1 in this post. You say as a wolf you avoid #2 or #3 spots, but you didn't place that vote. MEM did.

As I said, you're the best of the limited options, to me. There might not even BE a wolf in this set of targets. Among the other vote leaders, we've been over Ryvvn and I'm still a bit surprised people are voting for RaveBomb. I thought those votes would fade after the vig. But it seems some people have their own reasons, like Simon above.


That's a good counter to the first, but not my second counter-argument. Why would Wolf MEMv2 draw attention to himself by calling attention to the bandwagon Wolf MEMv1 was on? And not only that, but go after Mortus who voted right after MEMv1? I'm telling you, Human Furin on Day 2 takes risks when he goes after someone he truly believes is a Wolf. Wolf Furin on Day 2 doesn't talk all day, then posts a quick vote near the end of the day on a bandwagon that's not very high profile.

I'm sticking with Ravebomb only because it will provide some insight into Aldax's role. If I did not have to vote for either Ravebomb or Ryvvn to save my own skin at this point, I could definitely think of a better target, even with the current limitation.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby FurinMirado » 05 Sep 2013, 17:10:48

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
FurinMirado wrote:So Mister E. Mirado was #2 on both bandwagons. This is actually the best argument yet, but that's not saying much. [...] First of all, Wolf FurinMirado actively avoids the beginnings of bandwagons. He has been around long enough to know not to show up in the #2 or #3 spot. Secondly, my reasoning for my Day 2 vote was that there had to be a Wolf in the FurinMirado bandwagon and it was most likely Mortus in the #3 spot. Does it seem reasonable that Wolf Furin would implicate himself by drawing attention to that bandwagon and someone that voted right after MEM?


Frankly, here's what I'm looking at.

1. My case against Ravebomb has been severely crippled. I don't think it's DEAD, but it's been harmed.
2. You (as Mister E. Meat) and Mortus were my prime suspects at the end of day 1. One of you is still alive.
2.5. We needed to create more voting options so Ravebomb isn't a runaway train. Gotta help with the analysis.
3. You're not helping the case by telling me what Wolf You would do. That tells me that you know your wolf tells and can mask them whenever you like.

It's not a strong case at all, I'll grant you. However, it's what I've got.

A fair response. Frankly I think all of the arguments suck right now. I guess it's the fun of only being in Day 3.

I started masking my wolf tells many games ago by standardizing the way I respond and vote. But lately I think I've been slipping and giving away "human tells". When I start getting really into a game I can usually hold back when I'm a wolf, but when I'm human I tend to post and say far more than I need to. So being quiet could mean I'm a Wolf or a Human with a lot going on in RL, but if I'm obviously really invested in the game and posting a lot them I'm likely Human.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Nitestorm » 05 Sep 2013, 17:17:57

Visigoth wrote:Ducks and hides behind the Magic Eye sales booth.
First the Easter Bunny gets attacked and now people are shooting other people. What kind of mall is this? Where's the damn security at?
Waits a bit and after hearing no other shots gets up and resumes his task
But of course it seems I can't even get to that without being bothered to submit some vote. It also seems that there's an additional petition being submitted about revealing our visions... I can't even see the damn sailboat and they want visions? Seems a bit soon for that even with the reduced number of people on this list to pick from. If anything it seems these other contestants are more a danger to the Seers so why help the wolves by helping to point out likely people to vote out.

Well this list isn't as long as the last one which is a shame since some of the people that aren't on the list are bugging me a bit more than what I can pick from. Hmm, I think
Image
Nitestorm
is getting the vote. I know their shtick is so long running and practically a parody of itself at this point but something is still feeling off about it. The last time I had the feeling both were wolves so I'm going on that hunch again. Why Nitestorm over Ozymandias? Feels like one might be special and kind of leaning towards him as that special. Perhaps the over-the-top antics are just that and a way to both draw and then dismiss any attention.


You know whats really off lately? That wolfish smelling cologne you've been wearing. :o :o :o :o :o :o

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Nitestorm » 05 Sep 2013, 17:19:28

Griffypoo wrote:As far as I'm concerned, the seer results are all garbage this early in. A sample size of two is not nearly enough to tell whether you have the handful of not-completely-useless seer powers, even assuming you didn't hit on one of the two jokers. I think Rictus and Blindsniper83 are both wolves and used the guaranteed safety blanket today to weed out the crowd some more - it was a setup, and Hellheart was done wrong.

As for my vote, Nitestorm, you still seem shifty as fuck to me, but mostly it's because you incurred my wrath with the secondary smiley storm. Feel the flames of vote fury.


Did someone say smiley storm?

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I use these as an anti-wolf charm - funny how you seem to not like them. :shock:

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Simple_Simon » 05 Sep 2013, 17:21:04

Nitestorm wrote:
Griffypoo wrote:As far as I'm concerned, the seer results are all garbage this early in. A sample size of two is not nearly enough to tell whether you have the handful of not-completely-useless seer powers, even assuming you didn't hit on one of the two jokers. I think Rictus and Blindsniper83 are both wolves and used the guaranteed safety blanket today to weed out the crowd some more - it was a setup, and Hellheart was done wrong.

As for my vote, Nitestorm, you still seem shifty as fuck to me, but mostly it's because you incurred my wrath with the secondary smiley storm. Feel the flames of vote fury.


Did someone say smiley storm?

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I use these as an anti-wolf charm - funny how you seem to not like them. :shock:


It's reaching into my brain .... aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhh
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
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he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Smirker » 05 Sep 2013, 17:25:31

I may not trust ICB a lot atm, but I strongly agree that we need to have at least SOME bandwagoning going on. That was part of why I voted for Ryvvn early on and why I'm keeping it on him. Analysis is significantly delayed without some balance for the first few days.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby sphenodont » 05 Sep 2013, 17:29:18

What's the matter, Nocchi?

It's just... all this talk of revealing. It's bothering me somehow. I can't put my finger on it, though.

I know! *hic* You want to reveal, dontcha?!

I think you're revealing quite enough, Aa~chan! Cover up before you give Mister San a nosebleed!

She's right, though. It's the Seer talk and the revealing, and all of that.

Too early, right? I don't know if people should be trusting the packets stuffed under their doors each night.

I think it's more that Ozy didn't hatch some grand master plan on Day One and try to dominate everything.

Yes, I can see that, but maybe after the fireworks after the last game he's mellowing out a bit?

Ozymandias? Mellowing out?

Yeah, you're right. That's just... weird and alien.

*HIC* You know who else is weird and alien? Your face!

Looks like someone's been hitting the bottle again.

No, wait... that's not your face... it's FurinMeatado (retracted)!

Furin?? Why?!

Just a gut feeling. Though... I have been drinking.
Last edited by sphenodont on 05 Sep 2013, 17:44:53, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Retracted vote.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby FurinMirado » 05 Sep 2013, 17:36:59

Okay then, 3-way tie means role reveal:

Seer

Night 1: Griffypoo - Wolf (relayed by necklessone)

Night 2: Griffypoo - Wolf

Checking on him twice may not have been the best decision but I've had precious little time to think about this game. At the very least I am probably not one of the more random Seers. Hopefully even if I die today/tonight this information proves useful.


Screw you guys, I'm going to bed.

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Ionitor
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ionitor » 05 Sep 2013, 17:45:29

Of the top three, I'm getting the least human vibes from Ravebomb.

Furin's reveal has nothing to do with this. I think it's a good idea to reveal if you're a likely lynch/maul, but it's a bad idea to let it sway decisions.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby sphenodont » 05 Sep 2013, 17:53:48

FurinMirado wrote:Checking on him twice may not have been the best decision but I've had precious little time to think about this game.


Well, that's interesting. I mean, Aa~chan is drunk-voting. Are you drunk-seeing?

Sorry about that, Mister Meatnado! We'll try to keep her away from the buzzer when she's like this. Do you think you could explain why you targeted Griffey twice like that?

We shtill need to vote guys. I WANNA VOTE FOR REKARD!

Stop that, Aa~chan! We fulfilled our contractual obligations and now we really don't want him dead. Even if he is leaving pig hearts under out pillow at night.

To be honest, Ryvvn and Ozymandias are raising the most flags with us right now, but we don't like to judge Ozy before day four and we have no idea if Ryvvn is as honest and naive as he sounds.

Plus, we really haven't wanted to get hit with a penalty and we really didn't think the previous leaders were wolves.

Let's just vote for Ryvvn and be done with it?

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby redead » 05 Sep 2013, 17:55:01

I'm voting for Ryvvn. I think he must leave bloody paw prints when he ventures into the morning myst; after he's had his breakfast. He's a puzzle and a stranger, but I think I have him snared.

Or am I thinking of something else entirely?

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ryvvn » 05 Sep 2013, 17:59:18

"What a crazy round this last one's been! I see our red player chatting with Mo over there, maybe he has something more he'd like to say before it comes to a close; Mo?!"

"Right you are, Mike! Ryvvn, what would you like to say to those -- whether they be rooting you on or jeering -- who are listening?"

"Well, basically, if I get eliminated tonight for displaying consistent behavior, you can all go F--"

"We're sorry, the program you've been watching is currently experiencing technical difficulties; please stay tuned...."

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Smirker » 05 Sep 2013, 17:59:57

sphenodont wrote:Let's just vote for Ryvvn and be done with it?

Just a quibble, but you may want to consider doing your votes in a color not used by the band members.

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Ionitor
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ionitor » 05 Sep 2013, 18:00:01

If I wanted to snipe, it would go here. Don't want to, so take this:
Image

Edit: Curses!

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necklessone
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby necklessone » 05 Sep 2013, 18:01:28

The dramatic tension is thick.

Instead of a resolution, you get...commercials.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby necklessone » 05 Sep 2013, 18:03:58

RaveBomb - 8 - simple_simon, FurinMirado, Ryvvn, Rictus, Nitestorm, Aldax, Stigmata, Ionitor
Ryvvn - 8 - Smirker, Ozymandias, Omega, twdog, blindsniper83, RaveBomb, sphenodont, redead
FurinMirado - 5 - leiden, San, Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, Admetus
Nitestorm - 2 - Griffypoo, Visigoth
Admetus - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
Ionitor - 1 - rekard
Ozymandias - 1 - dferrantino


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