Day 3: Kibble

Try not to sweat too much.
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby RaveBomb » 05 Sep 2013, 07:53:33

THIS ENTIRE POST IS REDACTED BECAUSE I STOPPED READING MIDTHREAD. NOW FIXING THAT PROBLEM

rekard wrote:5 votes already on Ravebomb. Calm it down folks. Don't let the wolves control the votes. They can still do that easily if they pile up a bit more on Rave. Remember Smirker last game? 11+ votes on him and he was human. Just be careful.


I'll take People Talking Sense for $1000 please.

This poster is the first to defend RaveBomb

Who is rekard?


---
THIS POST IS ALSO HIJACKED BECAUSE IT'S THE TOP OF THE PAGE.
These players are the ones who may be lynched or mauled this round.
Okaros, FurinMirado, DastardlyOldMan, RaveBomb, Admetus, Ozymandias, Nitestorm, Ionitor, Ryvvn
Last edited by necklessone on 05 Sep 2013, 07:57:22, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Stealing top of the page space. Mwa ha ha.
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If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Aldax » 05 Sep 2013, 08:16:14

So, as I'm not one of the unlucky I think It's time to say this piece of info before it is too late:

As of Night 1 I had a vision of Ravebomb, in my vision he was at the beginning just a normal human, at least until a moon came out. Then he started turning into a monster, and the words "Wolf" appeared in front of him. As I believed that revealing this yesterday would lead to me being mauled, I tried to disguise it by "Random.org", resulting on a backfire by some of the other players (who may/may not be wolves trying to defend their buddy). I'll stay cautious.

But on Night 2, I visited a person who voted for me, his name was Hellheart, and I saw him as an almost omniscient being, surrounded by the same kind of visions I had. The word "Seer" burned brightly just above his head.


Tis' what I saw
Moral of the story: Never self-vig. - rekard

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Admetus » 05 Sep 2013, 08:20:03

dferrantino wrote:So...we have an seer claim, a vig based on that claim, a shot that killed a human seer, and nobody is suspecting any of the people involved? In a game with multiple vigs and seers, this just fucking reeks of a ploy.

I'm not going to personally vouch for anyone. If a wolf vigilante was going to come forward, using it to rush a decision the humans were in broad favor of but was wrong is the only really viable way to do it. But that said, isn't this particular shot one of the best and most common ways to use a vigilante? When the whole thread seems to be deciding to lynch one guy, and the votes will be meaningless because there's no incentive for the wolves to do anything but vote with the giant bandwagon, you shoot the guy and get it over with, right?

I'd say the most suspicious one out of ICB, Rictus and Blindsniper is Rictus. If ICB is a wolf, it's risky to build a dramatic, attention-grabbing theory, and I haven't seen wolf-ICB do that in the past. If Blindsniper is a wolf, he should have shot RaveBomb, because it's reasonably likely we'd still try to lynch Hellheart tomorrow even if RaveBomb was a human. Rictus's contribution, though... that was just nudging the thread to believe ICB. It's not damning, but I'd be willing to believe a wolf would do it.


-prepost edit-
So, I had this typed up and got roped into a call with the boss's boss. And then of course "At least one new post has been made to this topic." So dang. It sat for a while, hope it's not stale.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2013, 08:32:14

Aldax wrote:So, as I'm not one of the unlucky I think It's time to say this piece of info before it is too late:

As of Night 1 I had a vision of Ravebomb, in my vision he was at the beginning just a normal human, at least until a moon came out. Then he started turning into a monster, and the words "Wolf" appeared in front of him. As I believed that revealing this yesterday would lead to me being mauled, I tried to disguise it by "Random.org", resulting on a backfire by some of the other players (who may/may not be wolves trying to defend their buddy). I'll stay cautious.

But on Night 2, I visited a person who voted for me, his name was Hellheart, and I saw him as an almost omniscient being, surrounded by the same kind of visions I had. The word "Seer" burned brightly just above his head.


Tis' what I saw



Hmmm. I wouldn't have expected so soon a revelation, but well having Hellheart seen twice is rather peculiar. Hopefully tomorrow you stumble toward a truthful result.

Although if Ravebomb is the Cosmic Joke, it would be bad. Now, hmmm if Rave is a wolf, Ryyvn is a likely wolf too. A more likely wolf even. His newbie defense doesn't really convince me either.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 08:38:26

rekard wrote:Hmmm. I wouldn't have expected so soon a revelation, but well having Hellheart seen twice is rather peculiar. Hopefully tomorrow you stumble toward a truthful result.

Although if Ravebomb is the Cosmic Joke, it would be bad. Now, hmmm if Rave is a wolf, Ryyvn is a likely wolf too. A more likely wolf even. His newbie defense doesn't really convince me either.

Let's not jump to conclusions. There are a LOT of different seer roles.

Aldax is just as likely to be the Confused Seer as the Sane Seer, in which case his vision of Rave as a "Wolf" would actually indicate that Rave is Human.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Omega » 05 Sep 2013, 08:42:59

Ozymandias wrote:Let's try to get at least one more bandwagon going: Ryvvn


Ozy is right. We can't have a run away wagon this early in the game.

Ryvvn

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby RaveBomb » 05 Sep 2013, 08:43:24

I'll take totally clueless for $100 please.

This contestant is unwavering in the face of wrongness.

Who is Aldax. And may I say that given the revelations regarding Hellheart, the fact that he STILL believes his visions are accurate?
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If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby leiden » 05 Sep 2013, 08:45:03

From all the information I have, Ryvvn is not a wolf and neither is Hellheart. But perhaps I trust my powers too much.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2013, 08:47:52

Yeah, I know Ozy, hence no changed vote. It can even be one of the pattern seers and the visions just being a coincidence. I think straight revelations should have come later with more info, but that's how it goes. Also, I think role claiming this early is a bit detrimental as it could help wolves identify roles in an easier way. Though for now, should wait and see.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ionitor » 05 Sep 2013, 08:49:12

I'd like to hear more from Okaros. In his few posts, he's seemed less willing to provide his insightful commentary than usual.

Edit: And I agree with rekard (shocking!) that it's too early for so many seer reveals. Obviously, some are (mostly) safe today, but it'd be nice to have more than 3 days of results.
Last edited by Ionitor on 05 Sep 2013, 14:05:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 08:51:48

leiden wrote:From all the information I have, Ryvvn is not a wolf and neither is Hellheart.

Well, Hellheart is dead, and revealed to be a confirmed Contestant (Human) Seer.

But even though you may have seered both of them as Human, as you've hinting at for the past two days, you may not be the true Sane Seer.

For example, you could be the Naive Seer, who seers everyone as "Contestants", or the "Seer Seer," who seers everyone as "Seers." In which case your visions would not be very meaningful.

leiden, what were your specific non-Wolf visions of Ryvvn and Hellheart?

Did you see each of them as a "Contestant," or a "Seer"?

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 09:02:23

rekard wrote:Yeah, I know Ozy, hence no changed vote. It can even be one of the pattern seers and the visions just being a coincidence. I think straight revelations should have come later with more info, but that's how it goes. Also, I think role claiming this early is a bit detrimental as it could help wolves identify roles in an easier way. Though for now, should wait and see.

I agree that normally everyone should wait until tomorrow to role reveal, but it is a strange circumstance today with only 9 players in maul danger.

So I'm actually wondering if everyone not in maul danger today should just "flood the zone" and do a massive role reveal today?

Then the nine of us who are in maul danger can reveal our roles tomorrow (or do a snipe reveal at EOD tonight).

Because quite frankly, I feel like I've already figured out the identities of six of the remaining Seers (including the two that just went public today). Now one of these six may well be a Wolf, but that leaves FIVE of what I'm assuming are seven remaining Human Seers exposed.

And I don't see much value in the rest of us staying hidden just to protect one or two more Human Seers.

In fact, our best chance for a Human win may be for everyone to role claim so that we can narrow down lynch choices.

Anyone else care to weigh in on this?

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 09:07:28

Ionitor wrote:Edit: And I agree with rekard (shocking!) that it's too early for so many seer reveals. Obviously, some are (mostly) safe today, but it'd be nice to have more than 3 days of results.

Didn't see your edit before I posted.

I think I disagree about whether seers should reveal themselves today-- largely because so many already have through not-so-subtle hints.

But I can be convinced otherwise ...

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2013, 09:19:38

Well since 4 of them already revealed they have visions it can make sense. Also by the way people, let's remember the cosmic joke and handsome devil are out there.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2013, 09:28:40

Ozymandias wrote:Did you see each of them as a "Contestant," or a "Seer"?

Please don't answer this. The only group it helps is the wolves. Ozy you should know better.

I definitely think it's way too early to start revealing visions, though. And I sincerely hope some of you are faking it -.-

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2013, 09:30:20

And since I apparently can't vote for blindsniper, Rictus, or ICB, Ozymandias it is. Because I can't' imagine you forgetting that part unless you did it on purpose.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 09:34:41

dferrantino wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Did you see each of them as a "Contestant," or a "Seer"?

Please don't answer this. The only group it helps is the wolves.

How so? Hellheart has already been revealed as a Seer, and Ryvvn claims that he's a vanilla contestant.

So finding out that leiden seered Hellheart as "Seer" and Ryvvn as "Contestant" would certainly help inform today's lynch discussion.

And if the Wolves suspect that he's the top Sane Seer candidate, then they're going to play maul chicken with the Jailer starting on Night 4 to take him out.

So if leiden did not get results consistent with the Sane Seer, then it's in his own interest to say so, because if he's more likely to be the Naive or Seer Seer, he'll go the back of the Seer Maul Queue.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 09:40:09

dferrantino wrote:And since I apparently can't vote for blindsniper, Rictus, or ICB, Ozymandias it is.

So apparently poor dferrantino was just SOOOO distracted and busy that you didn't realize you couldn't vote for blindsniper-- riiiiiiight.

Whatever-- I'm loooking forward to lynching you tomorrow, if I'm still around. But if not, I'm confident others will do it for me.

Because you are obviously a Wolf.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 05 Sep 2013, 09:40:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby necklessone » 05 Sep 2013, 09:40:37

RaveBomb - 6 - Iron Clad Burrito, simple_simon, FurinMirado, Ryvvn, Rictus, Nitestorm
Ryvvn - 3 - Smirker, Admetus, Ozymandias
FurinMirado - 1 - leiden
Ionitor - 1 - rekard
Okaros - 1 - Ionitor
Ozymandias - 1 - dferrantino

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2013, 09:41:37

Because if the wolves think he's the sane seer, and he says Ryvvn was a Seer, that makes two targets for the wolves instead of one.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Okaros » 05 Sep 2013, 09:43:14

Ionitor wrote:I'd like to hear more from Okaros. In his few posts, he's seemed less willing to provide his insightful commentary than usual.

Edit: And I agree with rekard (shocking!) that it's too early for so many seer reveals. Obviously, some are (mostly) safe today, but it'd be nice to have more than 3 days of results.


The traditional post-lunch siesta on Melmac lasts for three full days. But since you've so rudely disturbed my nap, I guess I might as well get back to playing the game...


((Sigh. I've been trying to figure things out today, just when I think I have something it all gets train-wrecked.

First was ICB's Hellheart-as-a-wolf-tell-for-RaveBomb theory, which sounds like a nice catch but was derailed by blindsniper's vig shot. I was hesitant to join the dogpile on Rave (and still am) because while ICB's story "fit" there initially, there could have been other explanations and I don't think a mass pile-on is beneficial. Blindsniper's vig of Hellheart adds more complexity in that it mostly destroys ICB's story but doesn't necessarily clear Rave.

So, if I don't want to join the dogpile on Rave, I've been trying to figure out who out of the 7 remaining candidates I'd vote for today. The shenanigans from you and Ozy at EOD on Day 1 and your continued matched-set voting on Day Two are suspcious and I'm trying to figure out if you're two humans that are coordinating via PM, two wolves trying to get away with the "Oh, but we'd never be THAT obvious" excuse, or if you're just reprising your bastard GM roles from the Archer game. :P

And now I also have to come to a decision regarding Ozy's role-reveal notion. My instinct is to dislike it, at least for today since the Jailer can't save anyone tonight, he can only block seer results. And even if the 9 of us that are at risk today don't reveal anything I think there's a decent chance of the wolves figuring out what our roles are from process of elimination. *Especially* if there's one or more wolves in the 9. Maybe tomorrow?

I'm going to lunch now and will try to parse more of this when I get back. Currently leaning towards Ozy, as while I was predicting *your* defensive snipe his was out of left field, and he's canny enough to pull it off thinking he could get away with it. I'm hoping to hear thoughts from people that know how Ozy works better than I do before I fully commit to that though, so I'm not making that a vote just yet. ))
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby stigmata » 05 Sep 2013, 09:45:56

I'm going to resist the urge to vote Ozy today. This is really hard.

I was ok with ICB's analysis but now I have no idea. On the plus side, that was the best use of the vig from blind sniper.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2013, 09:46:14

Ozymandias wrote:
dferrantino wrote:And since I apparently can't vote for blindsniper, Rictus, or ICB, Ozymandias it is.

So apparently poor dferrantino was just SOOOO distracted and busy that you didn't realize you couldn't vote for blindsniper-- riiiiiiight.

Whatever-- I'm loooking forward to lynching you tomorrow, if I'm still around. But if not, I'm confident others will do it for me.

Because you are obviously a Wolf.

Right, because I'm the only one here who ignores 99% of the day's OP and just skims the thread before posting.

We've got two options here, follow this morning's nonsense onto RaveBomb, or kill Ozy. Considering most of our seers probably tried to have a look up your skirt these last two days, I'm willing to bet absolutely noone would have a problem finding out what you actually are.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 09:48:06

dferrantino wrote:Because if the wolves think he's the sane seer, and he says Ryvvn was a Seer, that makes two targets for the wolves instead of one.

But if he's had two "Seer" results, then the Wolves are much more likely to assume that he's the Seer Seer, not the Sane Seer-- at least until he gets back a non "Seer" vision. So I don't see the problem.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2013, 09:50:02

Ozymandias wrote:
dferrantino wrote:Because if the wolves think he's the sane seer, and he says Ryvvn was a Seer, that makes two targets for the wolves instead of one.

But if he's had two "Seer" results, then the Wolves are much more likely to assume that he's the Seer Seer, not the Sane Seer-- at least until he gets back a non "Seer" vision. So I don't see the problem.

In a game where literally half the players are Seers? Really?

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 09:51:44

dferrantino wrote:We've got two options here, follow this morning's nonsense onto RaveBomb, or kill Ozy.

Why the hell do you get to decide how many options we have?

I think lynching Ryvvn makes much more sense than lynching Ravebomb.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 09:55:02

dferrantino wrote:In a game where literally half the players are Seers? Really?

What are you talking about?

There are 26 players left-- why would you think 13 of them are Seers? Especially with one Seer already dead?

Most of us have been assuming something closer to 9 Seers originally (Eight Human + 1 Wolf) and thus 8 Seers now.

Do you know something that the rest of us don't?

If so, I wonder <cough>Wolf<cough> how that could be ...

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ionitor » 05 Sep 2013, 10:13:08

Ozymandias wrote:
Ionitor wrote:Edit: And I agree with rekard (shocking!) that it's too early for so many seer reveals. Obviously, some are (mostly) safe today, but it'd be nice to have more than 3 days of results.

Didn't see your edit before I posted.

I think I disagree about whether seers should reveal themselves today-- largely because so many already have through not-so-subtle hints.

But I can be convinced otherwise ...

Right now, the seers have 2 results. Tomorrow, they'll have 3. With only 3 results, presumably on mostly live players, it's unlikely we'll be able to figure out what kind of seer most people are, and the wolves will take out the obvious candidates for sane and confused seer quickly -- of course, we won't know which is which, so the only way we'll be able to know is to kill even more people with rather poor odds. With only 3 results, we won't even be able to eliminate very many options for which seer someone was.

That said, I'm not sure when the right time to come out is. I agree that we want to find a way to minimize the chance of wolves falsely claming "seer" later in the game, which probably means targeting lists of some kind, if not result lists, but we would want most people to have them. Hm. Even a coded list that would limit the ability to claim any old list later on would help, but that might be too much for many people. Hm.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2013, 10:19:56

Ozymandias wrote:
dferrantino wrote:In a game where literally half the players are Seers? Really?

What are you talking about?

There are 26 players left-- why would you think 13 of them are Seers? Especially with one Seer already dead?

Most of us have been assuming something closer to 9 Seers originally (Eight Human + 1 Wolf) and thus 8 Seers now.

Do you know something that the rest of us don't?

If so, I wonder <cough>Wolf<cough> how that could be ...

Dude there are like 15 on the list in the rules thread.

e: Yeah, 15. I can't imagine knocking that list down to 9, especially with how many players we started with.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 10:25:42

dferrantino wrote:Dude there are like 15 on the list in the rules thread.

The GM also stated in the rules (emphasis mine):

necklessone wrote:All seers will have a type from the list below but will not be informed of it. Not all types will be in play.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2013, 10:33:14

Hmmm. Dferr, I think Ozy makes more sense at this moment, given there are other roles and multiple vigs according to Neck. I think you're making a bit of a leap of logic in there, or even simplifying things a bit too much. It sounds like you're trying too hard.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Admetus » 05 Sep 2013, 10:39:47

Ozymandias wrote:
dferrantino wrote:We've got two options here, follow this morning's nonsense onto RaveBomb, or kill Ozy.

Why the hell do you get to decide how many options we have?

I think lynching Ryvvn makes much more sense than lynching Ravebomb.

I strongly agree with Ozy on this one. Or, I guess I should say he agrees with me and a few others. Ryvvn is my number one wolf candidate by a country mile. I think all the people on RaveBomb are just busy at work, because the vig completely shattered the reason to be on that bandwagon. Busy or wolf, I suppose, since a wolf might worry less about which human dies.


Regarding seer claims -- of course I will not because I'm at risk today. But in general I don't like revealing this early. The reason is that the wolves will have a very good idea which few might be useful, and we won't for another day or two. If we mass claim at this point, we risk the wolves picking off the useful seers and leaving us with a bunch of bad ones and very few useful visions.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby twdog » 05 Sep 2013, 10:40:43

1st, WTF blindsniper!? Don't you know that team killing seers is my job! Come on man, don't be stealing my thing!

That said, I'm not sure what all to make of these reveals and this Ozy\dfer\Ionitor thing. Obviously, like everyone else I don't entirely trust seer reveals because they're not necessarily accurate. Of course, the networkers are trying to coordinate results behind the scenes, but who knows how that is going.

Therefore, I'm going with Ryvvn due to his last minute sniping. I'm open to changing my vote if better arguments come up.
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 10:43:47

Ionitor wrote:Right now, the seers have 2 results. Tomorrow, they'll have 3. With only 3 results, presumably on mostly live players, it's unlikely we'll be able to figure out what kind of seer most people are, and the wolves will take out the obvious candidates for sane and confused seer quickly -- of course, we won't know which is which, so the only way we'll be able to know is to kill even more people with rather poor odds. With only 3 results, we won't even be able to eliminate very many options for which seer someone was.

I get all that. Ideally, no Seers would be out yet, and Human Seers would reveal true visions and Human Contestants would reveal fake visions (to provide cover for the Seers) on Day 5 (or better yet, snipe reveal at the end of Day 4). That was going to be my original Ozymandias Grand Plan (a.k.a. the "OGP"), which I thought was going to be necessary to protect the Seers from the maul.

But that seems pointless now, because so many Seers are already out:

(1) Rictus claimed Seer status and revealed a vision;
(2) Aldax claimed Seer status and revealed two visions;
(3) leiden strongly hinted at visions each of the last two days;
(4) ICB claimed earlier today that his Seer ability had been blocked.

In addition, two other players have pretty clearly hinted that they've had a vision. I won't say who they are, in case the Wolves haven't figured out yet, but I really doubt that.

Anyway, these 6 players will almost certainly be the maul targets over the next several nights.

Given that, I don't really see any downside to everyone else role claiming-- because anyone not on the above list is unlikely to get mauled until Night 8 or so.

And the upside is that not only do we get a complete record of Seer information-- well, except for one (RIP Hellheart)--but we would also start limiting the ability of Wolves to claim fake roles.

For example, why shouldn't all of the Networkers role reveal now?

Their power use can be verified by multiple players, so it's a role that difficult to fake claim.

And they are in no maul danger from the Wolves anytime soon, given all the known Seers out there.

Also, assuming there are about four of them, we can be reasonably sure that one of them is a Wolf.

So knowing who they all are will be very helpful when it comes to narrowing down lynch possibilities.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 05 Sep 2013, 10:50:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Nitestorm » 05 Sep 2013, 10:47:49

I'm just going to throw my 2 cents out there, but all of you are clearly letting Ozymandias manipulate you. Instead, you should just blindly listen to whatever I say. :flail:

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Nitestorm » 05 Sep 2013, 10:51:07

Omega wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Let's try to get at least one more bandwagon going: Ryvvn


Ozy is right. We can't have a run away wagon this early in the game.

Ryvvn


Sure, just let the puppet master pull at your strings, like a flock of sheep to a hungry wolf... :shock:

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2013, 10:56:53

rekard wrote:Hmmm. Dferr, I think Ozy makes more sense at this moment, given there are other roles and multiple vigs according to Neck. I think you're making a bit of a leap of logic in there, or even simplifying things a bit too much. It sounds like you're trying too hard.

I'm not saying that I think there are 15 seers in the game, but 9 sounds too low considering how many players we started with.

THAT SAID all of this is a distraction from my original point, which is that there's no reason in a game with this many seers that the wolves would automatically assume two Seer readings makes someone a bogus seer. IMO, if they thought leiden was a legitimate seer, they'd be way more likely to kill both him and Ryvvn to test the waters.

So, seriously, if you're going to reveal your visions, don't give the wolves more information than they already have. They know who the Contestants are. They don't know who the Seers are.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Blindsniper83 » 05 Sep 2013, 10:58:16

dferrantino wrote:So, seriously, if you're going to reveal your visions, don't give the wolves more information than they already have. They know who the Contestants are. They don't know who the Seers are.

And knowing is half the battle
Last edited by RaveBomb on 05 Sep 2013, 11:16:48, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Ravebomb fixed the broken quote tags.
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby dferrantino » 05 Sep 2013, 11:01:50

GI JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOE

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby RaveBomb » 05 Sep 2013, 11:16:10

I'll take Quotes from the 80s for $400 please.

The other half of "... and knowing is half the battle".

oh shi... What are Red Lasers and Blue Lasers?

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby San » 05 Sep 2013, 11:43:20

FurinMirado

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Rictus » 05 Sep 2013, 11:52:46

Blindsniper83 wrote:
dferrantino wrote:So...we have an seer claim, a vig based on that claim, a shot that killed a human seer, and nobody is suspecting any of the people involved? In a game with multiple vigs and seers, this just fucking reeks of a ploy.

blindsniper83 and Rictus, welcome to my shortlist.

ok heres my train of thought dferr, i vigged hellheart on the choice of 3 reasons,
1) Rictus seered him as wolf, so its a 50/50 shot on he was really a wolf, or rictus seers oppisite of what they are (seer homing set up)
2) Rictus is a wolf and lied( lynch time), we already lost a vig who didnt get a shot,
3)but the main reason is, id rather not be trying to read the bag of scrabble tiles spilt into the boggle game, all game, it was reaalllllly getting annoying

set me to the gallows if ya feel the need to kill a human, cause im now just a plain vanilla human, meaning the next possible vig is the wolf vig, (if they got one,)

1. I'm at work and typing in my phone.
2. My motivation for my post was same as Blindsnipers #3.
3. Because of BlindSnipers vig, I've narrowed down my own seer role.
4. I missed all of yesterday, but today has some good posts.
5. I'm against seer reveals... There are only 3 good seer roles. 5 more are very poor, and another 6 are flat out useless.
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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby stigmata » 05 Sep 2013, 11:58:02

Phone vote for ravebomb. Sorry, I can't colour it at the moment. :(
Last edited by RaveBomb on 05 Sep 2013, 13:08:55, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: colored

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Griffypoo » 05 Sep 2013, 12:01:27

As far as I'm concerned, the seer results are all garbage this early in. A sample size of two is not nearly enough to tell whether you have the handful of not-completely-useless seer powers, even assuming you didn't hit on one of the two jokers. I think Rictus and Blindsniper83 are both wolves and used the guaranteed safety blanket today to weed out the crowd some more - it was a setup, and Hellheart was done wrong.

As for my vote, Nitestorm, you still seem shifty as fuck to me, but mostly it's because you incurred my wrath with the secondary smiley storm. Feel the flames of vote fury.
Last edited by Griffypoo on 05 Sep 2013, 12:02:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ryvvn » 05 Sep 2013, 12:01:56

I stand by my role claim of vanilla contestant, and I'd like to point out that my voting behavior -- prize or not -- is consistent with my near-EoD jumping-on-wagons voting behavior last game, in which I was human. At least if I do get lynched tonight, and it is revealed that I was not lying, that will hopefully point the more intelligent players in better directions... though I feel the more intelligent players are likely the wolves this game.

Lynch me and at best you're getting rid of an erratic, non-analytical player; but you're also granting the wolves another night of double human kills.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Admetus » 05 Sep 2013, 12:07:02

Ryvvn wrote:I stand by my role claim of vanilla contestant, and I'd like to point out that my voting behavior -- prize or not -- is consistent with my near-EoD jumping-on-wagons voting behavior last game, in which I was human. At least if I do get lynched tonight, and it is revealed that I was not lying, that will hopefully point the more intelligent players in better directions... though I feel the more intelligent players are likely the wolves this game.

Lynch me and at best you're getting rid of an erratic, non-analytical player; but you're also granting the wolves another night of double human kills.

You were plenty good at playing human last game. Don't sell yourself short. I just think you didn't take as quickly to the wolf side of things, and made an error when trying to deflect suspicion. I addressed all your other points in my previous post dissection.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Ionitor » 05 Sep 2013, 12:08:44

FWIW, Ryvvvvvn is striking me as human; frankly, I think he'd be playing more cautiously as a wolf.

The question I've been asking myself is why Meta4 is dead. Maybe they thought he was playing things close to his chest and was a likely seer, but the only thing that makes much sense to me is that they were trying to make me look suspicious, since Meta4 voted for me yesterday. I'm going back and forth on whether that means that a wolf also voted for me, or if they would stay off the bandwagon. I'm leaning towards the former, but not enough to call out a definite wolf.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby FurinMirado » 05 Sep 2013, 12:47:19

dferrantino wrote:I think all the people on RaveBomb are just busy at work, because the vig completely shattered the reason to be on that bandwagon.

This.

15 minutes until my next meeting and I decided to check TWG via phone. I'd like to switch my vote but I don't have the time to analyze all this nonsense until I get home. Which won't be for another 3 hours. Yay.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2013, 13:12:36

Hmm. Ryyvn's excuses don't sound too good for me. The fact that there are prizes muddles things a bit, specially if we have greedy people aiming for prizes. Tsk tsk.

Given the sheer number of votes on Mortus, there have to be at least 1-2 wolves there. Maybe even 3.

Hmm, tough to say right now.

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Re: Day 3: Kibble

Postby Okaros » 05 Sep 2013, 13:23:47

You know, I love cats. They're tasty, especially grilled or with peanut butter. But you know what doesn't go well with cat? Salads. That's a disgusting combination, and when it's been in the fridge so long you can't even figure out the flavor it's time to clean MysteryMirado out of the fridge.


((I think I've talked myself out my Day 1/2 Ozy+Ionitor suspicions:

Point: Ozy and Ionitor both sniped at EOD1.
Point: If those two were protecting either Simon or Ionitor, only one snipe would have been enough and I refuse to believe Ionitor didn't know about Ozy's snipe when he hit "submit". Thus I think it's unlikely those two were coordinating to protect anyone. Perhaps a friend/foe test by Ionitor, arranged by PM?
Point: On Day Two, they both voted together again on Mortus.

I can buy the "Ozy sniped and thought he could get away with it argument" on day one, but in-tandem with Ionitor and then following-up with a lynching of Mortus is so shamelessly and completely all-in that I have a hard time seeing it coming from those two if they were wolves.

Thus, in the absence of strong evidence for others at the moment, I'll go with the newly-reborn Furin in an effort to get bandwagon-related voting information and see if anyone has any particular loyalties to this version of him. I'm not getting any particular wolf-vibes from anyone that I'd be willing to trust just yet, and I'm very curious to see where the original pile of people that jumped on RaveBomb wind up. I think that's going to be educational.

Also, I still think the "OGP" is a bad idea. Too soon by at least a day, perhaps two. I'm concerned with the seer roles being revealed, due to the wolves being able to analyze our Day Two results better than we would, but I'm as concerned if not more with the *non* Seer roles being revealed. If a significant number of seers come forward it will create an easy target list for the wolves in eliminating what I'm guessing are at least one more vig, 3 or 4 networkers and the Jailer. We're down three plain contestants so far, and that drastically increases the odds of a random non-seer being a valuable maul target. If we mass-reveal we'd better make sure it's worth the cost of losing more of our non-seer roles and the possibility of our Sane/Confused seers going out the window as well. The longer we wait, the more seerings we have at reveal-time. The more seerings we have, the less of a knowledge advantage the wolves will have in the analysis.


Is that the insightful commentary you've been looking for, Ionitor? :P I would've preferred to wait another day or two for more information, but the Ozy plan really needs full debate/discussion now before it wrecks us.
))
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