Day 4: Off-White

Try not to sweat too much.
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Day 4: Off-White

Postby necklessone » 05 Sep 2013, 18:18:36

"It's about time we had a tie," Nick says.
RaveBomb - 8 - simple_simon, FurinMirado, Ryvvn, Rictus, Nitestorm, Aldax, Stigmata, Ionitor
Ryvvn - 8 - Smirker, Ozymandias, Omega, twdog, blindsniper83, RaveBomb, sphenodont, redead
FurinMirado - 5 - leiden, San, Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, Admetus
Nitestorm - 2 - Griffypoo, Visigoth
Admetus - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
Ionitor - 1 - rekard
Ozymandias - 1 - dferrantino

His fake smile is wider and whiter than usual. "As always, we turned to the audience at home to settle the tie-breaker and the results from the 900 numbers are in. We're sorry, RaveBomb…but you're going to have to keep playing because the home audience just LOVES you." Cue blue light of sadness on Ryvvn. "Ryvvn, your time here is done. Please collect your home copy of The Wolfing Game and head back to the motel with DastardlyOldMan".

The audience gasps. It sounds fake.

"Yes," Nick continues, "the wolves have decided that there is no place for the geriatric in this game. Both Ryvvn and Dastardly will recieve a year's supply of Doritos Nacho Loco Quesadilla Taco flavor corn chips. Taste the Tex Mex!" Their pictures fly up on the big board, both with one word: Contestant.

"One last thing before we can get to the next round," Nick says, suddenly somber. "Because a wolf was not eliminated last round, I have to award a penalty to the players." The screen behind him is filled with large red X. "There is now one strike against the contestant team. At the third strike, the wolf team gains new powers." He wags a finger at the players. "Now let's not let that happen, huh? Maybe another prize drawing will change your minds?"

Two new boxes with a hole cut out rise from the trapdoors: one ecru, one mother of pearl. "For each day that goes without a wolf being found, we've increased the quality of prizes. Can you even imagine what's in there now? The platinum-plated power of personal veto, perhaps? The ability to obtain dossiers twice as fast? Don't you want to know?"

The lights dim and a spotlight illuminates Nick.

"So, contestants: who are the wolves?"

Ryvvn, Contestant - Lynched
DastardlyOldMan, Contestant - Mauled

[+] Vote History
rekard voted for Ionitor
Smirker voted for Ryvvn
Iron Clad Burrito voted for RaveBomb (Retracted)
simple_simon voted for RaveBomb
FurinMirado voted for RaveBomb
Ryvvn voted for RaveBomb
Rictus voted for RaveBomb
leiden voted for FurinMirado
Nitestorm voted for RaveBomb
Admetus voted for Ryvvn (Retracted)
Ozymandias voted for Ryvvn
Ionitor voted for Okaros (Retracted)
Aldax voted for RaveBomb
Omega voted for Ryvvn
dferrantino voted for Ozymandias
twdog voted for Ryvvn
San voted for FurinMirado
Stigmata voted for RaveBomb
Griffypoo voted for Nitestorm
Okaros voted for FurinMirado
DastardlyOldMan voted for Admetus
Ionitor voted for Admetus (Retracted)
Iron Clad Burrito voted for FurinMirado
Admetus voted for FurinMirado
blindsniper83 voted for Ryvvn
Visigoth voted for Nitestorm
RaveBomb voted for Ryvvn
sphenodont voted for FurinMirado (Retracted)
Ionitor voted for RaveBomb
sphenodont voted for Ryvvn
redead voted for Ryvvn

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Smirker » 05 Sep 2013, 18:43:30

Not the result I expected. I'll start off the day with a vote on REDACTED rekard.
Last edited by Smirker on 05 Sep 2013, 19:10:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2013, 18:49:14

Hmmm. Could this be a Retracted. Was dferrantino setup? Or just a classic archrrival move like in other games? Let's poke at that for a moment. I bet DOM was talking at dferr when he was voting on Admetus(conjecture though).

Admetus might be weird. Changed vote when called out. Would it be because of that or because too many wolves were voting for Ryyvn?

Furinmirado was a bit too emotional in hindsight. But he confessed a double seer wolf on Griff.

5 contestants dead and no Cosmic Joke yet. I fear for the rest. Who to believe? Lets see.
Last edited by rekard on 06 Sep 2013, 08:47:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Smirker » 05 Sep 2013, 18:56:31

I was considering DOM vote for Admetus to be a possible sign for him being lynched as well. But, I felt that was leaping to conclusions. I almost voted for ICB at this time, because I'm not getting good vibes from him and he lead towards the out of whack bandwagons. The fact he worked to draw notice to it is why i recanted before i submitted my vote.

Reminder, for all seers make sure to take into account eh known seers possible when you are determining which you might be. The random ones are bad, but the one who seers the lynch vote of his target could be interesting.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 05 Sep 2013, 18:58:18

Also to the one I talked with yesterday. I trust you right now.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Admetus » 05 Sep 2013, 19:05:50

rekard wrote:Hmmm. Could this be a dferrantino setup? Or just a classic archrrival move like in other games? Let's poke at that for a moment. I bet DOM was talking at dferr when he was voting on Admetus(conjecture though).

Admetus might be weird. Changed vote when called out. Would it be because of that or because too many wolves were voting for Ryyvn?

Furinmirado was a bit too emotional in hindsight. But he confessed a double seer wolf on Griff.

5 contestants dead and no Cosmic Joke yet. I fear for the rest. Who to believe? Lets see.

Yeah, this is just great. The wolves kill DOM when his dying words were kill Admetus... and probably dferrantino, too. Thanks a lot, wolves.

I would phrase that differently, Rekard. I got called out (by two people with "feels" but no specifics), and in addition, I changed my vote. I was wrong about Ryvvn to start the day, but got it right in the end. The concept that I was balancing wolf votes or something is kind of hard to imagine, given how much movement happens late. That move is too early by far to be considered a snipe.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Smirker » 05 Sep 2013, 19:14:15

After giving it a little thought I've changed my vote to Ozymandias. The fact he was a candidate last night for an unblockable mauling and they took DOM instead? Extremely suspicious, but I've been more suspicious of him than usual anyway, especially with him wanting to get seer reveals on D3. [/poke]

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 19:46:48

First things first: dferrantino is by far the most likely Wolf.

Why? Because as I wrote on Day 1:

Ozymandias wrote:
necklessone wrote:Ozymandias - 2 - Nitestorm, dferrantino

I think it's very likely that a Wolf voted for me, and since I rather not vote for Nitestorm (who got mauled on Night 1 of last game) this early, let's go with dferrantino

I'm glad I didn't vote for Nitestorm, because lo and behold, Nitestorm did NOT vote for me yesterday-- even though he only had seven other choices!

Oh, sure, he accused me of being a Wolf all day, but he didn't actually vote for me.

I don't believe Nitestorm has ever not voted for me on Days 1-3 as a Wolf, because it draws too much attention to him. And even though he may be a psychopath as an individual Human, when he's a Wolf he doesn't want to let down his team.

So dferrantino must be the Wolf who voted for me on Day 1-- just like he was the only Wolf who voted for me on Day 3.

Why else would I only have ONE lynch vote on a day where there were only nine choices?

If dferr weren't a Wolf, don't you think one of the Wolves would have put a second vote on me, just to see if my bandwagon took off? But they didn't, because they couldn't risk it being started by TWO Wolves.

Finally, here's the coup de grace:

Smirker wrote:After giving it a little thought I've changed my vote to Ozymandias. The fact he was a candidate last night for an unblockable mauling and they took DOM instead?

The reason I wasn't mauled last night is that, as most of you know, Wolf dferrantino is even more afraid of DOM than he is of me.

Why? Because DOM is so good at reading dferrantino. Case in point:

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Admetus for me, today, and I'm not random.org'ing that. He's been triggering my instincts second only to someone-I-can't-vote-for today.

Do I know for certain that the "someone" DOM was talking about was dferrantino? No, I don't.

But I guarantee you that dferrantino thought DOM was talking about him, which is almost certainly why DOM was mauled.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 20:09:38

Smirker wrote:Extremely suspicious, but I've been more suspicious of [Ozy] than usual anyway, especially with him wanting to get seer reveals on D3. [/poke]

First of all: four players had ALREADY revealed themselves as Seers, and two more strongly hinted that they received visions. Are we clear on that, bucko?

So I simply wanted what I'm presuming were the one or two remaining Humans Seers to come forward.

My motivation was that I didn't want to lose vital information about their visions-- which, by the way, we almost did with Mister Furin!

Sure, some of you might scoff at his calibrating by seering Griffypoo twice, but I think that was really smart, because it will help us rule out a lot of Seer role possibilities for Furin-- which in turn will help every other Seer figure what they are.

And the good news is, despite not lynching a Wolf yet, we still probably have at least 7 Human Seers still in the game! That's incredibly fortunate!

More about the ramifications of this for the "OGP" in the next post ...

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 20:34:08

I still maintain that a massive Human role reveal is our best course of action. After all, the score is likely 16 Humans to 8 Wolves, so theoretically they can win in just 4 days. That doesn't give us a lot of room for error.

However, the fact that we didn't lose a Seer yesterday removes some of the urgency for this reveal. And even though I think everyone should reveal now, I'm not going to be around for most of today due to a work deadline. So let's push the role reveal debate until the weekend-- if I'm still alive, I'll be happy to argue the merits of the plan.

However, I do have the following suggestion:

(1) I think the five players who have made Seer claims-- Rictus, Aldax, leiden, ICB, Furin-- should share their Night 3 visions as late in the day as possibly (preferably via a snipe post in the final minutes). Make sure you specify which night you targeted which player, because knowing that order is important for both the Target and Mirrored Seers.

Is this somewhat risky? Yes. But unless the Jailer gets lucky, one of you five is probably going to die.

And your final vision could be the key to unlocking everyone else visions ...

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Nitestorm » 05 Sep 2013, 20:42:07

Ozymandias wrote:First things first: dferrantino is by far the most likely Wolf.

Why? Because as I wrote on Day 1:

Ozymandias wrote:
necklessone wrote:Ozymandias - 2 - Nitestorm, dferrantino

I think it's very likely that a Wolf voted for me, and since I rather not vote for Nitestorm (who got mauled on Night 1 of last game) this early, let's go with dferrantino

I'm glad I didn't vote for Nitestorm, because lo and behold, Nitestorm did NOT vote for me yesterday-- even though he only had seven other choices!

Oh, sure, he accused me of being a Wolf all day, but he didn't actually vote for me.

I don't believe Nitestorm has ever not voted for me on Days 1-3 as a Wolf, because it draws too much attention to him. And even though he may be a psychopath as an individual Human, when he's a Wolf he doesn't want to let down his team.

So dferrantino must be the Wolf who voted for me on Day 1-- just like he was the only Wolf who voted for me on Day 3.

Why else would I only have ONE lynch vote on a day where there were only nine choices?

If dferr weren't a Wolf, don't you think one of the Wolves would have put a second vote on me, just to see if my bandwagon took off? But they didn't, because they couldn't risk it being started by TWO Wolves.

Finally, here's the coup de grace:

Smirker wrote:After giving it a little thought I've changed my vote to Ozymandias. The fact he was a candidate last night for an unblockable mauling and they took DOM instead?

The reason I wasn't mauled last night is that, as most of you know, Wolf dferrantino is even more afraid of DOM than he is of me.

Why? Because DOM is so good at reading dferrantino. Case in point:

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Admetus for me, today, and I'm not random.org'ing that. He's been triggering my instincts second only to someone-I-can't-vote-for today.

Do I know for certain that the "someone" DOM was talking about was dferrantino? No, I don't.

But I guarantee you that dferrantino thought DOM was talking about him, which is almost certainly why DOM was mauled.


Sometimes I swear people read too much into my behavior. Even I don't know what I'm going to do next. The voices in my head are usually pretty confused. Some tell me to burn everything, others tell me to give to the poor. I don't know who to listen to. :evil:

For the record, it's not an accusation when its simply a universally accepted fact that you are a wolf. I just make it a point to keep reminding everyone. :flail:

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Nitestorm » 05 Sep 2013, 20:44:18

Oh yeah, I need to make my obligatory Ozymandias vote, as it has already been too long, and I need to start before I suffer withdrawal symptoms. :cry:

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 20:45:12

One last bit of information for all you Seers out there: I am a vanilla Human Contestant.

Note I am NOT asking any Human Seers to come forward on my behalf to confirm this.

Instead, I just want them to know, since I'm guessing many of them have targeted me, that they "should" be getting a result of "Contestant."

So if you Seered me as something else, then either your power is flipped somehow, or has been redirected to another player, or is just not very useful. I thought it might be helpful for some of you to know that.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Sep 2013, 20:52:21

Nitestorm wrote:Oh yeah, I need to make my obligatory Ozymandias vote, as it has already been too long, and I need to start before I suffer withdrawal symptoms. :cry:

It's okay, I totally understand-- overcoming addictions such as IRV* can be a long process.

*Irrational Repetitive Voting

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby FurinMirado » 06 Sep 2013, 04:59:54

For now I'll follow the dferrantino bandwagon. The argument for his wolfiness is reasonable and I do believe he is more likely a wolf than Ozymandias at this point.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby dferrantino » 06 Sep 2013, 05:45:08

Ozymandias wrote:
Smirker wrote:After giving it a little thought I've changed my vote to Ozymandias. The fact he was a candidate last night for an unblockable mauling and they took DOM instead?

The reason I wasn't mauled last night is that, as most of you know, Wolf dferrantino is even more afraid of DOM than he is of me.

Why? Because DOM is so good at reading dferrantino. Case in point:

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Admetus for me, today, and I'm not random.org'ing that. He's been triggering my instincts second only to someone-I-can't-vote-for today.

Do I know for certain that the "someone" DOM was talking about was dferrantino? No, I don't.

But I guarantee you that dferrantino thought DOM was talking about him, which is almost certainly why DOM was mauled.

Right, because mauling DOM isn't something anyone who knows the dynamic between the two of us would take full advantage of given the chance, especially after that post yesterday.

In fact, I know one person who would not only take advantage of it, but make sure the conversation the next day kept focused on it, Ozymandias.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ionitor » 06 Sep 2013, 05:46:16

The evidence against dfer is damning, but I'm wonder if it isn't too damning. I'm not convinced right now.

My choice to start the day is twdog. His vote post yesterday seemed wolf-fake-confused, not twdog-confused, and he's slipped under the radar pretty well thus far.
Last edited by Ionitor on 06 Sep 2013, 17:56:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby dferrantino » 06 Sep 2013, 05:51:20

Also, claiming that my day 1 vote for you means something is total bullshit, as anyone who's played more than 5 games here knows. I honestly can't remember a game we were in together that I didn't vote for you day 1, unless I was voting for Mortus.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Griffypoo » 06 Sep 2013, 06:18:20

Yesterday's vigilante shot still stinks of a setup to me. blindsniper83 was all too eager to act on zero information from Rictus, an unconfirmed seer on a day where neither of them could be touched. Rictus is suspicious, too, but bluffing a seer role is a lot more ineffectual than a vigilante shot - and blindsniper83 wasn't under any pressure to use it so early on.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby stigmata » 06 Sep 2013, 06:35:03

Well, huh. Ties like that are going to make it really hard for the seers to work out what kind of seer they are. A lot of them still probably don't have any evidence to confirm their flavour.

So, uh, let's not trust any more seerings for a few days.

e: I'm actually going to go for dferrantino right now. Still convinceable, just busy today so I don't want to miss the vote by mistake.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby necklessone » 06 Sep 2013, 07:05:14

Mid morning vote count.

dferrantino - 4 - rekard, Ozymandias, FurinMirado, stigmata
Ozymandias - 3 - Smirker, Nitestorm, dferrantino
blindsniper83 - 1 - Griffypoo
twdog - 1 - Ionitor

No vote recorded (15) : Admetus, Aldax, blindsniper83, Iron Clad Burrito, leiden, Okaros, Omega, RaveBomb, redead, Rictus, San, simple_simon, sphenodont, twdog, Visigoth

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ionitor » 06 Sep 2013, 07:26:08

stigmata wrote:Well, huh. Ties like that are going to make it really hard for the seers to work out what kind of seer they are. A lot of them still probably don't have any evidence to confirm their flavour.

So, uh, let's not trust any more seerings for a few days.

I'm probably missing something, but how does a tie in the lynch hurt a seer? You can have conditionals to avoid seering a lynch target, and I'm not seeing how a 8-8 random result is any worse than a 9-7 result.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby necklessone » 06 Sep 2013, 07:35:38

Suddenly, a siren begins to sound. A car-sized tan box is lowered onto the stage behind the mother-of-pearl box. Nick steps up to his podium. "Players, it's time to offer you a deal. Instead of assigning individuals penalties today if you miss a wolf, you can opt for everyone to receive what's in the tan box instead. If you like forcing the responsibility for your failure onto others, please hit the "Yes" button on your podium now. Otherwise, hit the "No" button."

"Or you could just eliminate a wolf today and render this whole thing moot. If I were I contestant, I'd choose that option."

(PM necklessone "Yes" if you'd like the penalty to be the group penalty or "No" if you'd like it to stay individual penalities. Wolves and contestants can both vote. No penalty for not voting.)

Edit for disclaimer: This has nothing to do with the current vote totals or progress of the day. I just finally found some time to finalize how I wanted this event to occur.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby sphenodont » 06 Sep 2013, 07:40:43

Image

I'll take the box. The box!

Stupid! You're so stupid!!!

Ai-yi-yi. Not this again.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Sep 2013, 07:48:01

I want to trust Ozymandias, but the case only LOOKS solid. when you get to poking around, you find it's made of sugar.

Ozy isn't looking for wolves among voters for lynched humans; Ozy is looking for wolves among voters for... Ozy. Who's still alive, unconfirmed, and has taken the easy route of claiming he's a vanilla human. It just feels wrong.

Not that I trust dferrantino at ALL, nor will this clear him (IMO), but something is telling me to look hard at retracted f. Ozymandias.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby leiden » 06 Sep 2013, 07:56:46

dferrantino

I'm a seer. More than likely the naive seer.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 07:58:22

I think pretty much everyone meets that criteria. Just because someone is alive doesn't mean they are bad. I always find that a poor justification really. Though seers can help with that, but from the latest games in here, most times it has been a waste of time.

Though his aim has been really bad as his was last game.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby twdog » 06 Sep 2013, 08:05:22

rekard wrote:Just because someone is alive doesn't mean they are bad


I'd agree with that, assuming I understand you correctly that you're talking about players like dfer, Omega, and most of all Ozy still being in the game. If they're human, the wolves might leave them alone on the theory they'll be lynched anyway. If they're wolves, then they're going to plan around being lynched.

It's gotten to the point that I don't think OMG they're still alive! is strong proof of anything.

... and that goes for you too rekard. You're often an early casualty, but you're still with us.
you hear an odd muffled noise in the shoggoth tank

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby sphenodont » 06 Sep 2013, 08:08:22

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Ozy isn't looking for wolves among voters for lynched humans; Ozy is looking for wolves among voters for... Ozy. Who's still alive, unconfirmed, and has taken the easy route of claiming he's a vanilla human. It just feels wrong.[/b]


Ozy is such a problem child, isn't he?

I don't know that I'd put it that way, Aa~chan, but he's like rekard. It's really hard to vote for them too early, but they always die early.

Yeah, I know that I usually don't get in on the Ozy action if I can avoid it just because he does rub me the wrong way. It's not fair, and I don't want certain people to just be eliminated early game after game after game.

Maybe they die because they have some cosmic imbalance to repay for previous lives' injustices?

It's more that by now, wolves know that high-profile players like Ozy are super-useful as cat's paws. Why struggle to draw attention away from you, when you can just let someone else draw it to themselves naturally? It's what we did back at that magic school.

*cackles* And we would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't you pesky kids!

Aa~chan, I think it's naptime.

So what do we do? Ozy is awfully suspicious, but it could be a frame-job. Or it could be sloppy play. Or it could be sloppy play, designed as a shield against suspicion. I tel you, it makes you want to drink iocane.

I don't know, but we'll have to figure it out quickly. I'd like to hear a little more detail from Furin and anyone else who has been calibrating, but asking for that publically isn't wise.

OOC: I'm going to be on the road most of the day, and I'm not sure I'll have connectivity until 6 PM Central. I'll try to get my vote in before I leave work, but I don't know if that's going to happen.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Sep 2013, 08:08:45

rekard wrote:I think pretty much everyone meets that criteria. Just because someone is alive doesn't mean they are bad. I always find that a poor justification really. Though seers can help with that, but from the latest games in here, most times it has been a waste of time.

Though his aim has been really bad as his was last game.


It's not the mere fact that he's alive (though that does play a VERY minor part) -- this is the 2nd day where he's using people who voted for him as justification. We have a load of people who have voted to lynch humans, and he's trying to convince us that there's one in his two (TWO) Day 1 votes. It's all he has to go on, because no one ended up on him on day 2, and only dferr on day 3. The justification is just too flimsy.

This is where I'm having a problem.

(If it helps, I'm not convinced that I'm right here, either. But something doesn't feel right.)

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ionitor » 06 Sep 2013, 08:10:06

necklessone wrote:Suddenly, a siren begins to sound. A car-sized tan box is lowered onto the stage behind the mother-of-pearl box. Nick steps up to his podium. "Players, it's time to offer you a deal. Instead of assigning individuals penalties today if you miss a wolf, you can opt for everyone to receive what's in the tan box instead. If you like forcing the responsibility for your failure onto others, please hit the "Yes" button on your podium now. Otherwise, hit the "No" button."

"Or you could just eliminate a wolf today and render this whole thing moot. If I were I contestant, I'd choose that option."

(PM necklessone "Yes" if you'd like the penalty to be the group penalty or "No" if you'd like it to stay individual penalities. Wolves and contestants can both vote. No penalty for not voting.)

Edit for disclaimer: This has nothing to do with the current vote totals or progress of the day. I just finally found some time to finalize how I wanted this event to occur.

I encourage people to vote no on this. If we get bandwagons that include a wolf, the winning bandwagon (assuming it's not a wolf) will likely have a higher proportion of wolves than average, meaning that the wolves will (in theory) be penalized more heavily.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Sep 2013, 08:11:06

sphenodont wrote:Yeah, I know that I usually don't get in on the Ozy action if I can avoid it just because he does rub me the wrong way. It's not fair, and I don't want certain people to just be eliminated early game after game after game.


(OOC: I took a lot of shit for that line of thought last game...)

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 08:12:53

Twdog, last game I was a late casualty and I was human. Thank you very much.

But yeah, I am biased because I get a similar treatment to a degree and I always have said I don't like it, but it always makes things tense.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 08:18:18

But now, I see a 5-4 bandwagon early in the day. I don't like big ones so early. I am bothered right now by Furin. He is following. One time he followed my vote and he was a wolf, and that makes me uncomfortable. What to do...

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby twdog » 06 Sep 2013, 08:20:23

rekard wrote:Twdog, last game I was a late casualty and I was human. Thank you very much.

But yeah, I am biased because I get a similar treatment to a degree and I always have said I don't like it, but it always makes things tense.


I died early in the last game, and I haven't read through what happened after or who was on which team. I didn't really have much time for that game, so I wasn't sad I went out early, and didn't have a ton of time to read through it. That said, I've heard rumors of drama so I probably should just for the laughs.

The point stands that certain players tend to go down early either through wolf mauls or humans being afraid because their still alive.

None of this has to with Ozy pre se as much as just talking about that I'm not willing to lynch someone based primarily on that they're strong and still alive.

Lastly, I agree that Ozy has done some suspicious things, but I'm holding back on voting for a bit.
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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby RaveBomb » 06 Sep 2013, 08:22:39

I'll take probably a wolf for $400.

Ozymandias

What is a tying vote?

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 08:24:25

At the same time seers beware. If Ozy is a wolf, his "reveal" could be an attempt to draw all visions towards him to assess which seer is what and avoid seers seeing the other wolves. Be careful in that regard. It's easy to imagine since Ozy would be a good sacrifice where we could not get much information. Just be careful,just in case.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Aldax » 06 Sep 2013, 08:27:20

Ravebomb is still giving me the creeps, considering he's alive, probably his friends are moving targets to prevent this. I believe this 3 days of mistakes can be erased from our memories if we lynch the correct person, who is not, by a large shot, Ozymandias. He's sneaky and cunning, but in the end he's just a good guy, at least that what the letters above his head said.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ionitor » 06 Sep 2013, 08:27:28

Speaking of Ravebomb, does anyone else think that an appropriate prize for the wolves avoiding the day 1 lynch would have been a tie-breaking power?

I'm not voting for Ravebomb, and frankly, I think he should be left alone today considering that he's already had a couple of major bandwagons and we need info on other people. I'm just pointing this out in case I forget/am dead later.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby stigmata » 06 Sep 2013, 08:28:04

Ionitor wrote:
stigmata wrote:Well, huh. Ties like that are going to make it really hard for the seers to work out what kind of seer they are. A lot of them still probably don't have any evidence to confirm their flavour.

So, uh, let's not trust any more seerings for a few days.

I'm probably missing something, but how does a tie in the lynch hurt a seer? You can have conditionals to avoid seering a lynch target, and I'm not seeing how a 8-8 random result is any worse than a 9-7 result.

Any time the lynch isn't someone you seered, you're unable to compare the seer with their actual role. This isn't really a controversial observation: the only way to determine what kind of seer you are is to seer the lynch leader, and the only way make it useful is to then seer people who aren't about to get lynched.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 08:33:51

A little birdie is telling me stigmata is a wolf. Should I listen to this avian creature whispering to my ear? I wonder.

Also I support that the currently self revealed seers to reveal their visions today. If not at EOD, as close as possible. It helps more than staying put in case you get mauled (since you already revealed yourselves).

Also seers keep in mind that the wolf seer might produce a seer result.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 08:46:58

I'm not ready to believe the bird yet, but instead I will vote for Retracted. Was simple simon right now.

I don't want to see the bandwagons take off yet, and also him releasing some sort of suspect list so early sounds like a bit of a distraction.
Last edited by rekard on 06 Sep 2013, 17:59:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Admetus » 06 Sep 2013, 08:48:21

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:It's not the mere fact that he's alive (though that does play a VERY minor part) -- this is the 2nd day where he's using people who voted for him as justification. We have a load of people who have voted to lynch humans, and he's trying to convince us that there's one in his two (TWO) Day 1 votes. It's all he has to go on, because no one ended up on him on day 2, and only dferr on day 3. The justification is just too flimsy.

This is where I'm having a problem.

(If it helps, I'm not convinced that I'm right here, either. But something doesn't feel right.)


(As I mentioned a day or two ago,) If I were a wolf, I'd stay away from Ozy and let the humans lynch him. If that wasn't happening, I'd maul him. But if he makes the humans kill him as often happens, I wouldn't want to be on his vote record at all, when they come hunting for suspects.


Ionitor wrote:I encourage people to vote no on this. If we get bandwagons that include a wolf, the winning bandwagon (assuming it's not a wolf) will likely have a higher proportion of wolves than average, meaning that the wolves will (in theory) be penalized more heavily.

Day 1 had penalties. (reference) Nobody that voted for the leader claimed to have received anything from necklessone about this. Was it a secret penalty, as in something we couldn't see? Maybe each person on that vote bandwagon would lose any lynch tie (just making that up as a possibility)? Or is it maybe code for "good things for the wolves? I'm thinking the way these terms are being used, it's kind of an industry-insider meaning that doesn't exactly match what I think of as a penalty.

Day 2 had prizes. (reference) Or, at least, they were announced as prizes. Then they were called penalties when distributed. (reference) I only just noticed that, and it seems to bust the idea I was starting to think of where prize meant individual thing, and penalty meant global thing.

Day 3 had a penalty (not penalties like day 1). (reference) That seemed clear enough.


I spent all this time looking through that because of the rule:
Wolves, Prizes, and Penalties
Wolves will receive a subset of the prizes and all of the penalties they have earned. Which prizes they were eligible for will not be revealed.


This seems to imply there's some kind of difference between the terms, and up to now, necklessone has been incredibly slippery on what that is. So I'm not sure what the effect would be on the wolves if they got individual penalties, and I'm not sure what it would be if there was a group penalty. I'm guessing this group penalty is probably another strike, but it might be more since last time the strike was a "mild" penalty, and we're not in "mild" territory now.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Ionitor » 06 Sep 2013, 09:04:39

stigmata wrote:
Ionitor wrote:
stigmata wrote:Well, huh. Ties like that are going to make it really hard for the seers to work out what kind of seer they are. A lot of them still probably don't have any evidence to confirm their flavour.

So, uh, let's not trust any more seerings for a few days.

I'm probably missing something, but how does a tie in the lynch hurt a seer? You can have conditionals to avoid seering a lynch target, and I'm not seeing how a 8-8 random result is any worse than a 9-7 result.

Any time the lynch isn't someone you seered, you're unable to compare the seer with their actual role. This isn't really a controversial observation: the only way to determine what kind of seer you are is to seer the lynch leader, and the only way make it useful is to then seer people who aren't about to get lynched.

The lynch happens before the seerings, so there is no way to "seer the lynch leader". You can seer someone and then try to lynch them (and it's a longer discussion whether that is a good idea), but a tie doesn't impact that strategy anymore than not getting the votes on your target.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 09:24:22

Aldax wrote:Ravebomb is still giving me the creeps, considering he's alive, probably his friends are moving targets to prevent this. I believe this 3 days of mistakes can be erased from our memories if we lynch the correct person, who is not, by a large shot, Ozymandias. He's sneaky and cunning, but in the end he's just a good guy, at least that what the letters above his head said.

Maybe I'm on borrowed time, take this at you will.


Until we find the Handsome Devil, be wary. The handsome devil wolf will know he is handsome and that he will always show as contestant. If Ozy is that, he can easily claim that without much punishment. Although if someone seers the devil or the joke, that takes priority right?

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Sep 2013, 09:46:25

It's official, I have no idea what the fuck I'm doing. Vote retracted while I drthink heavily on things.

Hi Necklessone...

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby twdog » 06 Sep 2013, 09:47:55

Ionitor is right that I've been staying quiet this game. Partly, that’s because I haven’t had as much time as I’d like, and also I haven’t came up with something for RP. However, there’s another more important reason. I’m a seer of some sort.

I know a number of us feel that a mass seer reveal isn't good at this point. However, we’re really getting into the ♬danger zone♬ and seer unreliability is seriously undermining us. I’m not advocating a mass reveal, but perhaps my results could help

Night 1, I seered Ravebomb as human
Night 2, I seered Ionitor as human
Night 3, I seered blindsniper as wolf

I’m deliberately not saying seer vs. contestant to protect Rave and Ionitor

I had planned to sort of watch who voted for blindsniper and who he voted for, but I’m not sure we have the time. What’s more, while it’s very possible I didn't get a correct read on him, his vig shot is incredibly suspicious to me. I just really don’t get it at all unless he thought he could take out a human with no credibility consequences. In other games, I could see a vig shooting a seer revealed wolf to make the day voting more relevant and to speed things along, but this isn't that sort of game. Seer visions aren't guaranteed to be accurate, so a vig shouldn't take a shot like that and at that time.

So, while my vision of blindsniper may be wrong, personally I don’t think it is for those reasons.
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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 09:59:12

Hmm. You could be the vigilante seer that seers vigilantes as wolves and everything else random. Since your vision is different from Aldax, it could be a possibility and it fits. This could be sort of solved if someone has also seered sniper. He could still be a wolf paparazzi though.

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby necklessone » 06 Sep 2013, 10:01:07

dferrantino - 4 - Ozymandias, FurinMirado, stigmata, leiden
Ozymandias - 4 - Smirker, Nitestorm, dferrantino, RaveBomb
blindsniper83 - 2 - Griffypoo, twdog
RaveBomb - 1 - Aldax
simple_simon - 1 - rekard
twdog - 1 - Ionitor

No vote recorded (11) : Admetus, blindsniper83, Iron Clad Burrito, Okaros, Omega, redead, Rictus, San, simple_simon, sphenodont, Visigoth

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Re: Day 4: Off-White

Postby rekard » 06 Sep 2013, 10:43:39

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:It's official, I have no idea what the fuck I'm doing. Vote retracted while I drthink heavily on things.

Hi Necklessone...


Join me on simple Simon while you think, at least to keep things from running away. If we're able to get 2-3 near wagons, it will be good. Simon is the official "I have no idea what I'm yeliing about" wagon.


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