First some pretty lists. Apologies for those with any type of color-blindness issues, but wanted to differentiate between Contestants and specials since that might reveal crumbs left by votes instead of in posts.
- [+] Votes
- Day 1
FurinMirado - 6 - Omega, Mister E. Meat, Mortus, twdog, Ozymandias, Ionitor
Ionitor - 4 - Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth, Rictus
simple_simon - 4 - Griffypoo, Aldax, Smirker, Ryvvn
Ryvvn - 3 - Meta4, Wasabi, sphenodont
Hellheart - 2 - blindsniper83, redead
Ozymandias - 2 - Nitestorm, dferrantino
Admetus - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
Meta4 - 1 - leiden
Mortus - 1 - RaveBomb
Nitestorm - 1 - Admetus
RaveBomb - 1 - Hellheart
rekard - 1 - simple_simon
San - 1 - stigmata
stigmata - 1 - FurinMirado
twdog - 1 - San
Visigoth - 1 - rekard
Official list showed Ryvvn voting on Hellheart but he did change (no redaction) to Simple_Simon. But redead did vote on Hellheart and is not listed so guessing typo. Maybe?
Mortus - 9 - Okaros, FurinMirado (Mister E Meat), DastardlyOldMan, RaveBomb, Admetus, Ozymandias, Nitestorm, Ionitor, Ryvvn
RaveBomb - 7 - simple_simon, Omega, Aldax, Blindsniper83, Mortus, Iron Clad Burrito, Smirker
Nitestorm - 4 - leiden, Griffypoo, twdog, dferrantino
Ionitor - 2 - Meta4, stigmata
Aldax - 1 - Hellheart
dferrantino - 1 - rekard
rekard - 1 - sphenodont
Rictus - 1 - San
Ryvvn - 1 - Visigoth
RaveBomb - 8 - simple_simon, FurinMirado (Mister E Meat), Ryvvn, Rictus, Nitestorm, Aldax, Stigmata, Ionitor
Ryvvn - 8 - Smirker, Ozymandias, Omega, twdog, blindsniper83, RaveBomb, sphenodont, redead
FurinMirado (Mister E Meat) - 5 - leiden, San, Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, Admetus
Nitestorm - 2 - Griffypoo, Visigoth
Admetus - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
Ionitor - 1 - rekard
Ozymandias - 1 - dferrantino
Hellheart - Vigged by blindsniper83
dferrantino - 7 - Ozymandias, FurinMirado, stigmata, leiden, Rictus, Ionitor, redead
Ozymandias - 6 - Smirker, Nitestorm, dferrantino, RaveBomb, Iron Clad Burrito, rekard
twdog - 3 - Visigoth, San, simple_simon
blindsniper83 - 2 - Griffypoo, twdog
simple_simon - 2 - Omega, Okaros
RaveBomb - 1 - Aldax
Smirker - 1 - sphenodont
stigmata - 1 - Admetus
Next here is what I may or may not have seen when staring at the poster:
Night 1 - sphenodont - Seer
Night 2 - DastardlyOldMan - Contestant
Night 3 - twdog - Wolf
Night 4 - rekard - Seer
Not one sailboat among them, dammit.
Next some thoughts on the votes. Looking at just the votes there is some really crazy last minute EOD stuff going on each day that is just so suspicious. Day 1 you have the double Ozymandias and Ionitor move to FurinMirado #1 to push him over and out. Day 2 involves Ionitor, again, pushing Mortus into a tie with RaveBomb then Ryvvn also switches to push Mortus ahead. Day 3, once again, Ionitor is there pushing RaveBomb ahead but then redead comes in and ties Ryvvn up with RaveBomb. Day 4 oddly, not really, again Ionitor has a late vote switch pushing dferrantino into the lead and redead does another EOD of day vote to assist dferrantino out the door.
Not sure what to make of Ozymandias's last minute switch to push FurinMirado over the top on Day 1. He oddly wasn't in danger so not in self-defense. Was it a move to protect one of the others, maybe. For Day 1 the only other person in danger that is unknown is Ionitor. So maybe he switched to try and protect him thinking that maybe he wasn't around to cast a self-defense vote. But then Ionitor does come along and make the vote switch. If they are both wolves Ozymandias would likely know Ionitor was around and could save himself. If Ozymandias is the wolf why make a pretty big last minute switch to push a Contestant ahead? I could see it as him trying to plant the seeds of doubt about the others so that when he's lynched and revealed as a wolf the others that he "saved" might look guilty. Not sure I buy that explanation but it could explain it.
Now Ionitor making last minute vote snipes (especially on Day 1 which can be viewed as a self-defense vote) is not really much of a surprise at this point. It's a bit of a M.O. for him to make some pokes during the day with his votes and then move again near EOD for his final vote. Still as his voting pattern is kind of know it gives him a bit of an out to explain away any wolfiness the votes have. Also his last minute vote switches have been kind of game changing in who gets lynched. Day 1 I discount since self-defense is as good a reason as any to vote on someone, Day 2 it put Mortus away (see below for a theory on that), Day 3 almost got RaveBomb, and Day 4 putting dferrantino into the lead.
Ryvvn's vote switch was not too unexpected since he had said that he'd be voting on whoever was in the lead in order to get the prize. As we now know he was a Contestant it seems safe to say that his explanation was likely the truth. Seeing as he mentioned that earlier in the thread that he'd be voting for the leader in order to get the prize it might have opened him up to being manipulated into changing his vote. If people saw and believed what he said they would know that Ryvvn would switch his vote to whoever was going to get lynched. So in a sense there was a +1 vote manipulation power sitting there to be used. I mention all of this because when Ionitor switched to Mortus to tie it up seeing Ryvvn move to Mortus to push him ahead wasn't that surprising. And since Ryvvn had posted minutes before EOD it would be obvious he was around watching the thread so would be able to change his vote as needed.
Last in the bunch of odd EOD votes is redead. Day 1 was pretty much a nothing vote on Hellheart, but it's Day 1 so nothing votes are not uncommon. Nothing on Day 2. Day 3 was a late vote on Ryvvn to tie him up with RaveBomb. Day 4 was the late vote to cap dferrantino. His Day 3 post might have been a breadcrumb for a Seer result or just riffing on his name due to the myst reference. Day 4 he says he's going against his gut to vote on dferrantino. Now he's new here so these, in my mind, very wolfy late EOD votes could be simply be hand waved away for that very reason. He's new and doesn't realize just how suspicious those votes look plus since he's new he's a little bit quiet while he adjusts to the insane asylum here. But there's part of me that can't help but think that it's all by design. If he's a wolf it gives him (and the other wolves) a great tool to make really suspicious moves that will hopefully be seen as just newbie mistakes.
Now how this all fits together I'm not sure. RaveBomb seems a bit suspicious as he's been involved in some close calls that involved some of these last night vote moves. As such I'd kind of think that it would be an either RaveBomb or Ionitor as a wolf in such a case, but not entirely sure. On one day there's the appearance that Ionitor kind of saved RaveBomb but then the next day he put a vote that would have pushed him ahead. Wolves tossing each other under the bus is nothing new so if they are both wolves it might have been an attempt to get human cred by pushing RaveBomb out when he was in danger again. There's also the RaveBomb/redead are wolves which might explain redead's late vote to tie it up perhaps in an attempt to save RaveBomb. Perhaps he's just an unwitting pawn in some odd wolf plan or maybe he's the target of his fellow wolves attempts. Part of me says lynch him to find out his allegiance but another says that it's just a distraction and to try and find a better candidate.
Also not sure about Rictus. He's been rather adamant against doing Seer reveals which is odd. I do agree that when Ozymandias suggested it that it was too soon, but now I don't see a reason to not come forward. Even in a regular game I'd think a Seer should come forward with their information around this time since even if they haven't found wolves they hopefully will have a number of living humans which would help narrow down the list. Even more so since he himself came out on Day 3 with one of his results but has yet publicly share his other results (they ended up that way due to FurinMirado posting them) and doesn't seem to get why since he'd already revealed himself as a Seer that it would not be good to reveal the rest of his results. Also rather defensive about not being at least a little bit responsible for blindsniper83 shooting Hellheart after Rictus revealed him as a wolf. blindsniper83 kind of implied it a bit by referencing Rictus's Seering result after taking the shot. The PM and Seer ability is also a little hinky, but it does seem possible that he's been awarded a special unannounced prize for voting on dferrantino so that could explain that away.
Ionitor and redead are two others that I'm suspicious about mainly due to the votes at EOD. Maybe too obvious of moves for wolves, but that could be what they are hoping for. Tempted to vote on Giffypoo simple because his avatar disturbs me greatly for some reason. San being San is, well, San so not sure if that means anything at all.
Going to hold off voting right now since it's still a bit early. I have a narrative in my head but worried that I'm going down the rabbit hole on it and making pieces fit (even if they really don't) to suit the story. So I think stepping away for a bit and coming back to it will be a good thing.