Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby leiden » 10 Sep 2013, 10:11:43

I think you're both wolves >.>

It's like watching a nice, scripted act going down between you two.

edit: Ravebomb and Ozy.
Last edited by leiden on 10 Sep 2013, 10:15:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby necklessone » 10 Sep 2013, 10:15:25

Ozymandias : 4 : Day 6 Prize, Smirker, Okaros, Rictus, Ionitor, RaveBomb
RaveBomb : 2 : leiden, Aldax
Okaros : 1 : Day 6 Prize, Nitestorm, San
Smirker : 1 : Ozymandias
San : 0 : Day 6 Prize, Admetus

No vote recorded (6) : blindsniper83, Griffypoo, Iron Clad Burrito, redead, sphenodont, Visigoth

[+] Full Vote Count
Ozymandias : 4 : Day 6 Prize, Smirker, Okaros, Rictus, Ionitor, RaveBomb
Okaros : 1 : Day 6 Prize, Nitestorm, San
RaveBomb : 2 : leiden, Aldax
Smirker : 1 : Ozymandias
San : 0 : Day 6 Prize, Admetus
Admetus : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Aldax : -1 : Day 6 Prize
blindsniper83 : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Ionitor : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Iron Clad Burrito : -1 : Day 6 Prize
leiden : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Nitestorm : -1 : Day 6 Prize
redead : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Rictus : -1 : Day 6 Prize
sphenodont : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Visigoth : -1 : Day 6 Prize


Edit: Sorry for the delay in correction; talking to my boss.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ozymandias » 10 Sep 2013, 10:16:18

Current Vote Tally:

Ozymandias - 4 - Day 6 Prize, Smirker, Okaros, Rictus, Ionitor, Rave
RaveBomb - 2 - leiden, Aldax
Smirker - 1 - Ozymandias
Okaros - 1 - Day 6 Prize, Nitestorm, San
San - 0 - Day 6 Prize, Admetus

Yet to Vote - 6 - blindsniper83, Griffypoo, Iron Clad Burrito, redead, sphenodont, Visigoth

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 10 Sep 2013, 10:41:35

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:An elaborate setup perpetuated by a wolf seer, real or fake, after we'd already exposed the fake one?

Actually, this all would have begun on Night 5, BEFORE you exposed twdog on Day 6.

My guess is that my leading the charge against Smirker on Day 5 is what prompted the Wolves to decide to "burn" Smirker to take me out via lynch, but you jailing me delayed those plans until today.


Still somewhat problematic, though. The wolves didn't take that kind of precaution with twdog making a claim, and all the events setting this up occurred before I came out.

Or to put it more bluntly, on night 1 I had a 1/31 (3.22%) chance of jailing twdog. When I made the decision on day 5, the chance of getting YOU was 1/22 (4.55%)* AND I had at least one outed seer begging for jailer protection. Why the sudden need to be careful?

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Nitestorm » 10 Sep 2013, 10:46:34

It pleases me greatly that everyone is finally eyeing the one truth wolf master, Ozymandias. With his demise we will finally be free of his wolfy malevolance and be able to decide our futures for ourselves. Freedom will soon be upon us all, and we must celebrate!

:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:
:flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail:

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ionitor » 10 Sep 2013, 10:56:21

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:An elaborate setup perpetuated by a wolf seer, real or fake, after we'd already exposed the fake one?

Actually, this all would have begun on Night 5, BEFORE you exposed twdog on Day 6.

My guess is that my leading the charge against Smirker on Day 5 is what prompted the Wolves to decide to "burn" Smirker to take me out via lynch, but you jailing me delayed those plans until today.


Still somewhat problematic, though. The wolves didn't take that kind of precaution with twdog making a claim, and all the events setting this up occurred before I came out.

Or to put it more bluntly, on night 1 I had a 1/31 (3.22%) chance of jailing twdog. When I made the decision on day 5, the chance of getting YOU was 1/22 (4.55%)* AND I had at least one outed seer begging for jailer protection. Why the sudden need to be careful?

This is the crux of my reason for voting for Ozymandias.

The main reason I don't want to is that it requires that, on day 2, the wolves decided that one of Ozy or dfer was going to be sacrificed. The voting implies that they wanted to sacrifice dfer, which I doubt. More likely would be that, as the handsome devil and because Ozy is Ozy, it was assumed that Ozy would die sooner rather than later, so he should be actively going after wolves to help clear them. Unfortunately, if you go down that rabbit hole, then Smirker and Ozy could both be wolves as well.

Still staying on Ozy for now, though. I'm pretty sure he's powered by an infinite improbability drive.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ozymandias » 10 Sep 2013, 10:58:16

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Still somewhat problematic, though. The wolves didn't take that kind of precaution with twdog making a claim, and all the events setting this up occurred before I came out.

Or to put it more bluntly, on night 1 I had a 1/31 (3.22%) chance of jailing twdog. When I made the decision on day 5, the chance of getting YOU was 1/22 (4.55%)* AND I had at least one outed seer begging for jailer protection. Why the sudden need to be careful?

Because they probably didn't know which of their Seers was useless on Day 1, so they couldn't waste a vision on twdog.

Note that the Wolves' aim was very bad on Nights 2 and 3 (no seers either night), but was very good on Nights 4 and 5-- seers on each night, neither of which had publicly declared.

That suggests to me that it took them a while to figure out which of their seers was the useful one.

Perhaps the crappy one seered DOM as a "Seer" on Night 1 or Night 2, and that's why they mauled DOM on Night 3?

Also, on Night 1 they probably didn't even know they were going to use twdog for a fake Seer ploy-- indeed, they probably picked twdog precisely because they thought he was the vanilla Wolf least likely to have ever been jailed.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ionitor » 10 Sep 2013, 11:07:32

One other random thought: since the wolves are apparently worried about me, did they get stigmata from the fact that I "outed" him on day 5? I was aiming for people that were likely to survive into the late game; I just realized today that I would have been doing a great job as an evil seer. I AM NOT THE EVIL SEER, DAMNIT.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ozymandias » 10 Sep 2013, 11:11:13

Nitestorm wrote:It pleases me greatly that everyone is finally eyeing the one truth wolf master, Ozymandias.

I was wondering what was taking you so long-- you do realize it's been THREE days since you last voted for me, right?

That's too long for someone recovering from IRV*** -- you don't want to risk quitting cold turkey! It's not healthy!

***Irrational Repetitive Voting

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ozymandias » 10 Sep 2013, 11:14:57

Ionitor wrote:One other random thought: since the wolves are apparently worried about me, did they get stigmata from the fact that I "outed" him on day 5?

stigmata said on Day 5 that dferrantino had PM'ed him at some point, so I'm pretty sure they were already onto him.

It might have had something to do with all the questions stigmata kept asking about whether Seers could target lynch leaders :flail: :flail:

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ozymandias » 10 Sep 2013, 11:22:38

Well, I'm going to be busy with work again for the rest of the day (though this time I probably will be able to check in before the deadline).

So since this looks like it's going to be a two-way race I'll go ahead and switch my vote to Ravebomb.

Well played, Smirker-- looks like you'll get to survive one extra day (unless there's still a Vig out there ...)

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ozymandias » 10 Sep 2013, 11:24:59

Current Vote Tally:

Ozymandias - 5 - Day 6 Prize, Smirker, Okaros, Rictus, Ionitor, Rave, Nitestorm
RaveBomb - 3 - leiden, Aldax, Ozy
Okaros - 0 - Day 6 Prize, San
San - 0 - Day 6 Prize, Admetus

Yet to Vote - 6 - blindsniper83, Griffypoo, Iron Clad Burrito, redead, sphenodont, Visigoth

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Rictus » 10 Sep 2013, 11:38:57

Image

I'll just leave this here. Used on Ozy.

---
Rictus' vote is now worth 2.
Last edited by necklessone on 10 Sep 2013, 11:42:25, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: GM confirmation
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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 10 Sep 2013, 13:11:34

I'm fairly well forced to decide between trusting Ozymandias and trusting Smirker here.

Ozymandias's theory has some merit, but I think stretches things just a LITTLE too far to be plausible. I will say in advance that I'm sorry... you almost got me to trust you. We'll know at night's end whether it's my paranoia that pushed me to this decision, or whether I actually made a wise choice. Probably the former, don't worry.

Other suspicions:
San, kind of obliquely -- he's posted visions a day after using a vigilante shot. I'm not voting san yet solely because San's a 1 and done poster, generally, and I will give an opportunity to defend. Ozy took those visions and posted them up like they actually could have happened, which is odd. Suspicion of San will grow or shrink depending on Ozymandias.

spheno, with an easy-to-mimic seer set this late in the game. It's like, really?

Ravebomb - by virtue of seer visions, but could be a lock for wolf if Ozy turns up Handsome Devil. Ozy had a hand in saving Rave 2 days running; Ozy could say he made poor choices, which would be 'confirmed' by a seering.

Ionitor - just a gut feeling, not ready to try make a case. Could just be my fear of his skill. :)

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ionitor » 10 Sep 2013, 13:38:36

I'd still like to point out that, if Ozy's a wolf, it doesn't necessarily "clear" Smirker.

I'm torn between the fact that Ozy's explanation for Smirker being a wolf assumes a lot of planning on the part of the wolves, and the fact that, if Ozy was a wolf, I wouldn't have expected to see twdog's mistake and ICB's survival past day 4.

What I'd really like to do is find a candidate outside of Ozy, Smirker, and Ravebomb, since the handsome devil and cosmic joke should really be less uncertain lynches. But I'm short on time for the full re-read that requires.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ionitor » 10 Sep 2013, 13:41:10

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Ionitor - just a gut feeling, not ready to try make a case. Could just be my fear of his skill. :)

I don't think you were around, but have you seen what happened last time I was something like a wolf? Fear me not.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby sphenodont » 10 Sep 2013, 13:46:55

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:spheno, with an easy-to-mimic seer set this late in the game. It's like, really?


Don't "really" us, Mister!

He can really me, if he wants to!

Not now, Aa~chan!!

Look, we can't help it if we got a bum role. If someone else has it, let them counterclaim. I've been hinting at things as I've seen them, and even let on that I did try to calibrate the first two days.

Seriously, if we were wolves, we wouldn't be so obvious about it. We'd pretend to be the vote seer or something.

I would be obvious about it!

That's why you're not in charge, girl...

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby necklessone » 10 Sep 2013, 14:41:22

Vote and powers, please. Vote and powers.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Visigoth » 10 Sep 2013, 15:13:05

Trying to wrap my head around the argument Ozymandias is trying to make in regards to Smirker and himself. It feels like a circular argument or something since Ozymandias is saying that Smirker is a fake Seer wolf even though he knew that Ozymandias was jailed on Night 5 to correctly report no information because the wolves have other Seers that were also looking at Ozymandias that night in order to be able to detect that Ozymandias was jailed thus allowing Smirker to correctly fake not Seering Ozymandias that night. Thus now Smirker is setting Ozymandias up by reporting a Contestant result which would indicate that he is likely the Handsome Devil which Smirker's fake Paranoid Seer ploy would report. Since if Ozymandias was a wolf the wolves would have power blocked Smirker last night since he was obviously (still not sure how) going to Seer Ozymandias again. Is that the gist of the argument or have I completely missed it? If so there seems to be a lot of things that have to go right for wolf Smirker and the wolves to pull this off whereas it seems a bit more likely for the wolves to not expect Smirker to look at Ozymandias again and not block him thus resulting in Smirker getting the "right" result from his Seering.

With that said I'm certainly leaning towards the more likely option
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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Smirker » 10 Sep 2013, 15:52:26

Visigoth wrote:Trying to wrap my head around the argument Ozymandias is trying to make in regards to Smirker and himself. It feels like a circular argument or something since Ozymandias is saying that Smirker is a fake Seer wolf even though he knew that Ozymandias was jailed on Night 5 to correctly report no information because the wolves have other Seers that were also looking at Ozymandias that night in order to be able to detect that Ozymandias was jailed thus allowing Smirker to correctly fake not Seering Ozymandias that night. Thus now Smirker is setting Ozymandias up by reporting a Contestant result which would indicate that he is likely the Handsome Devil which Smirker's fake Paranoid Seer ploy would report. Since if Ozymandias was a wolf the wolves would have power blocked Smirker last night since he was obviously (still not sure how) going to Seer Ozymandias again. Is that the gist of the argument or have I completely missed it? If so there seems to be a lot of things that have to go right for wolf Smirker and the wolves to pull this off whereas it seems a bit more likely for the wolves to not expect Smirker to look at Ozymandias again and not block him thus resulting in Smirker getting the "right" result from his Seering.

With that said I'm certainly leaning towards the more likely option

Yep, that's his amazing convoluted argument (and that's ME saying that!) as I understand it too. IVery nice summation though!

Also, I'd encourage people to pay attention to the vote history overall. I honestly wasn't sure if Ozy cult of personality was going to have me in a huge bandwagon today (by the time I got back from work), but if it had i was OK with that.

Ozymandias wrote:Because they probably didn't know which of their Seers was useless on Day 1, so they couldn't waste a vision on twdog.

Note that the Wolves' aim was very bad on Nights 2 and 3 (no seers either night), but was very good on Nights 4 and 5-- seers on each night, neither of which had publicly declared.

That suggests to me that it took them a while to figure out which of their seers was the useful one.

Perhaps the crappy one seered DOM as a "Seer" on Night 1 or Night 2, and that's why they mauled DOM on Night 3?

Also, on Night 1 they probably didn't even know they were going to use twdog for a fake Seer ploy-- indeed, they probably picked twdog precisely because they thought he was the vanilla Wolf least likely to have ever been jailed.

I find your speculation that the wolves have multiple seers to be interesting. We know the wolves would have the Professional Seer AND the Power Blocker (Wolf Jailer) AND the Handsome Devil, so the speculation they'd have an extra seer is surprising to me.

I honestly don't trust Ionitor any more than usual (he knew I wasn't a vigi on D2 or so I'm sure. ;) ); but he is absolutely right that my status is completely independant of Ozy's allegiance. So, none of us need to be lazy, and we can still win this thing. :) For the newer people Ionitor makes me paranoid in a NORMAL game as a result of a psychic scarring he gave me in his own first TWG game -- I underestimated him badly. ;)

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ionitor » 10 Sep 2013, 16:10:28

I have no interest in sniping, and it doesn't look like anyone is going to lynch me today, so this shall be inverted:
Image

Just so there's no surprises, if I do not get any immediately pertinent information from my seering tomorrow, I will be waiting until the EOD to reveal it. I will not comment on who I intend to target. Suck on that, wolves. :P

Edit: Bah. Forgot to add a mustache.

---
Ionitor's vote is now worth 3.
Last edited by necklessone on 10 Sep 2013, 16:15:35, edited 2 times in total.
Reason: GM confirmation.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby necklessone » 10 Sep 2013, 16:18:35

Ozymandias : 10 : Day 6 Prize, Smirker, Okaros, Rictus x2, Ionitor x3, RaveBomb, Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth
RaveBomb : 3 : leiden, Aldax, Ozymandias
Okaros : 0 : Day 6 Prize, San
San : 0 : Day 6 Prize, Admetus

No vote recorded (4) : blindsniper83, Griffypoo, redead, sphenodont

Full History wrote:Ozymandias : 10 : Day 6 Prize, Smirker, Okaros, Rictus, Ionitor, RaveBomb, Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth
RaveBomb : 3 : leiden, Aldax, Ozymandias
Okaros : 0 : Day 6 Prize, San
San : 0 : Day 6 Prize, Admetus
Admetus : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Aldax : -1 : Day 6 Prize
blindsniper83 : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Ionitor : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Iron Clad Burrito : -1 : Day 6 Prize
leiden : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Nitestorm : -1 : Day 6 Prize
redead : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Rictus : -1 : Day 6 Prize
sphenodont : -1 : Day 6 Prize
Visigoth : -1 : Day 6 Prize

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Blindsniper83 » 10 Sep 2013, 17:09:53

Smirker

posting as power goes on and off (400 amp main breaker keeps tripping in my building so 5 floors are outta power)
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby sphenodont » 10 Sep 2013, 17:22:22

Smirker wrote: For the newer people Ionitor makes me paranoid in a NORMAL game as a result of a psychic scarring he gave me in his own first TWG game -- I underestimated him badly. ;)


I think that makes Smirker totally a twdog for Ozzies. Or something like that.

That doesn't make him wrong, though. Ozy's game has been muted, which makes total sense if he's been the Handsome Jack, right?

I don't know that I'd normally put Ozy and HJ in the same sentence, Nocchi, but there's no accounting for taste.

Can't you two be serious for once? Anyway, let's just get in a vote for Ozymandias, but let's not lose track of things. There have been too many huge votes on wolves and contestants alike.

I think we need to try to try figure out whether Ionitor and Ozy are staging a demonstration for us, whether some of those runner-up votes were wolves, or if we're all just getting snowed.

I could--

No.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Admetus » 10 Sep 2013, 17:34:29

I'm somewhat uncomfortable about the possibility of Ozy being a wolf because of the dferrantino vs Ozymandias day. I think it's really time for a full forum re-read.

That is a giant vote train you've got, there. It's actually not big enough to kill Ozymandias if he also has -4 votes and if leiden burns his prize. That would make this 11-4=7 to 5, 2 votes outstanding. A small snipe-switch away from victory. Have I mentioned vote manipulation powers are not my favorite? Ozymandias.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ozymandias » 10 Sep 2013, 17:50:38

Image

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 10 Sep 2013, 17:57:47

Admetus wrote:I'm somewhat uncomfortable about the possibility of Ozy being a wolf because of the dferrantino vs Ozymandias day.


I won't lie, I have struggled with this all day.

That and yeah, we've lost 2 days' analysis, so I hope others can help work out the vote patterns for people we've overlooked... the quiet ones.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Ozymandias » 10 Sep 2013, 17:59:05

Now it's time for today's final question: will the Humans win the game?

Press this BUTTON to find out!

And with that I bid you adieu ...


Image


... you know, it's funny, when you look at him in the right light, that actually is one very Handsome Devil.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 10 Sep 2013, 17:59:48, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby redead » 10 Sep 2013, 17:59:37

I vote for RaveBomb. Shoot.

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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby Griffypoo » 10 Sep 2013, 18:00:04

Eh, fuck it. Ozymandias, since he's doomed anyway. Maybe I'll get a prize bag. See ya, man.

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necklessone
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Re: Day 7: The Shocking Truth about twdog

Postby necklessone » 10 Sep 2013, 18:01:02

And that's the day.

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