Day 11: The Finale

Try not to sweat too much.
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Day 11: The Finale

Postby necklessone » 13 Sep 2013, 18:17:59

Nick grins from the podium. In front of him, the bottle of champagne chills in the melting ice. "Ladies and gentlemen, let me present to you the winners of this season of The Wolfing Game." The boards behind him light up with the vote.
sphenodont : 9 : Iron Clad Burrito, Griffypoo, Admetus, leiden, Okaros, Visigoth, Aldax, Smirker, redead
Okaros : 1 : blindsniper83
Rictus : 1 : sphenodont
Nick reaches for the champagne, then stops. "I suppose I better see if the contestants pulled a miracle out of somewhere. Let's show everyone what sphenodont was."

The board has only two words. Wolf. Seer.

Confetti, applause, and the bottle remains unopened. After a few moments, Nick claps his hands and quiet slowly returns. "So, we'll be having an extended finale after all. The wolves have opted to keep things tight. Redead, I'm going to have to ask you to hand in your dossiers and buzzer."

Two more words. Contestant. Seer.

Nick walks over the the curtains, which today reveal a large wheel with a fake golden shield in the center. "As you all know, when things get this close there's only one prize worth giving: the Golden Shield. The recipients of the shield will be able to protect any other person from the maul…but if they even hint that they have a shield, they themselves can no longer be protected. So keep it secret, protect wisely, and lynch a wolf." He spins the wheel and it lands on 3. "Three of you will find more information in your documents for the round."

The lights dim and a spotlight illuminates Nick.

"5 contestants, 4 wolves. Can they run the board? So, contestants: who are the wolves?"

sphenodont, Wolf Seer, Lynched
redead, Contestant Seer, Mauled

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Blindsniper83 » 13 Sep 2013, 18:24:24

Okaros

also forgot San was dead, got my chiltlins this weekend and they were being crazy, so was semi paying attention
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby necklessone » 13 Sep 2013, 18:27:45

The judges wanted me to make one thing clear:

Any player who hints or says they have a shield will be ineligible for protection.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 13 Sep 2013, 18:31:18

The good news is that since we don't have 3 days to make mistakes anymore, I don't need to spend 3 days telling you that someone's lying about seer results.

I'm voting for Okaros. He has a shitty vote history before the twdog/ozymandias pile-ons. He has a shitty history after them as well. Before you ask, no, this isn't based on anyone's seer visions. Someone besides Okaros can change my mind. Or we can make this a 4-way runoff.

Your call.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby necklessone » 13 Sep 2013, 18:58:34

((Today is a 48 hour day, but there aren't that many of you. If everyone has a vote in by tomorrow night at 9pm, I'm going to call it a day and have another one on Sunday.))

Edit: ((If anyone objects to this, just say so in thread or via PM and it'll be 48 hours; I won't out anyone who requests a longer day via PM. Also, I won't shorten the day unless I get confirmation from the people who have already voted.))

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby leiden » 14 Sep 2013, 09:35:24

Okaros

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Griffypoo » 14 Sep 2013, 10:27:08

Ah, what the hell. I can go with the flow. Okaros, don't say it doesn't matter, matter anymore.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Smirker » 14 Sep 2013, 10:32:00

Hmm, interesting. BTW - I'm glad we're still in the running, and sorry I was in such a mood yesterday. The EOD at work all spiraled in an annoyingly bad way that in retrospect could've been a lot worse. But traffic really set me off. There is a reason I try to avoid the worst of it; but yesterday landed me ~20 min later than usual and it was the armpit of hell. :P

redead, for future reference please let us know ahead of time when you are a seer -- or leave a clear (in retrospect) trail of breadcrumbs for the survivors to use for analysis. I was very surprised you were a seer; but probably for the best you didn't come out yesterday as it would have been too distracting off sphenodont. I'm hoping that in this case you didn't feel you were a useful breed of seer, but this game is an odd variant. :)

I can support the Okaros vote, it's pretty much a runaway train at this point - but I don't have an issue with it regardless.

Also, in case it is necessary for seer determination -- the dossier i got another 'wolf' dossier last night for Visigoth. If it does come into play where someone is a target seer, etc.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Smirker » 14 Sep 2013, 10:47:59

I see the Vote tally as:

Okaros : 5 : blindsniper83, Iron Clad Burrito, leiden, Griffypoo, Smirker

YET TO VOTE:
Admetus
Aldax
Visigoth
Okaros

[e]: corrected to include Okaros amoung the yet to vote... ...
Last edited by Smirker on 14 Sep 2013, 10:55:41, edited 4 times in total.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby necklessone » 14 Sep 2013, 10:51:26

Okaros is yet to vote as well.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Okaros » 14 Sep 2013, 11:36:09

ICB: I understand. Frankly, if I were in your shoes I'd be voting for me too.

Everyone: ICB's right about my record. I've made some very public and high-profile mistakes, and it's about to cost us the game. My hope is that people can look past that given my openness about how I made my decisions (and my honesty about what happened with my vig shot), but since the vote's already 5-0 most of you are probably in the same frame of mind. I'll just promise to try and avoid making the same mistakes next game.



blindsniper83, though it doesn't matter much.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Admetus » 14 Sep 2013, 12:09:19

Okaros vs Blindsniper is not as obvious to me. I'm a little worried about the easy bandwagon here. Everyone's that sure? Well, Blindsniper would be, but there's a bunch of "me too" with no explanation here. We've got two days if we need.

Voting record compare go!

Day 1
Both would be reasonable spread out places for a wolf to sit an early vote. If we had time to get things wrong, lynching Okaros would tell us things about Visigoth's position, maybe. But either way, Blindsniper's spot fits as a Wolf, too.

Day 2
Again both positions support a wolf, they don't look unreasonable.

Day 3
This one Blindsniper looks better on. If he was a wolf, why were wolves pushing so hard to get Ryvvn lynched?

Day 4
Okaros is avoiding the wolf trains, but Blindsniper skips the day, so I'd say both are suspicious.

Day 5
Both positions support a wolf.

Day 6
Twdog goes down without a fight. No information.

Day 7
Okaros is much less wolfy here. Blindsniper is off on the side, maybe hoping an alternate builds, but Okaros was on Ozy early and stayed there.

Day 8
They practically have the same vote here.

Day 9
This one I needed to go to the vote history. At the time Blindsniper put his vote in, Wolf Sphenodont was in the lead at 3. Blindsniper picked between the 2s, and tied someone with Spheno. Then Sphenodont went to 4, and then Okaros put San at 3. Between Blindsniper and Okaros, Blindsniper tied someone else up with the wolf. I'd say both are consistent with being a wolf. If you're Blindsniper, picking between two Contestants to make a alternate wagon is bad. If you're Okaros, you're desperate for any Contestant wagon.

Day 10
Okaros might be jumping on the done-deal bandwagon, but Blindsniper's vote is late enough in the day that it basically doesn't matter either.


So to summarize:
Day 3 in Blindsniper's favor, Day 7 in Okaros's favor, Day 9 maybe slightly in Okaros's favor.


So, ICB, is that what you're saying about "before Ozy / after Ozy?" Both have votes that could easily be wolfy. Maybe you could put a few more specifics out?

We pretty much know one of Blindsniper and Okaros is going to be a wolf. It's just that, after looking at it, I don't think it's completely cut and dried. Not clear enough for this one-and-done voting.


I'm going to hold off on my vote, but I will check in before 9:00.

pre-post-edit
Oh, there's Okaros himself. What a weird defense. How can you avoid lynching humans? Nobody's ever going to have a perfect record.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Visigoth » 14 Sep 2013, 12:17:15

First, my updated Seer results:

Night 1: sphenodont = "Seer"
Night 2: DOM = "Contestant"
Night 3: twdog = "Wolf"
Night 4: rekard = "Seer"
Night 5: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 6: Aldax = "No Result"
Night 7: San = "Seer"
Night 8: Rictus = "Contestant"
Night 9: Smirker = "Wolf"
Night 10: Iron Clad Burrito = "Seer"

Is it just me or is anyone else surprised by redead's reveal of being a Seer? I was a little suspicious on Day 9 when Griffypoo's list revealed him to be a Seer and thought about calling him out on it since he if he's a Seer why hadn't he released his results. But thinking about it I guess it might have been possible that he was actually a useful Seer so he didn't want to tip his hand to the Wolves which is why he was laying low. Of course if he wanted to lay low I'd have expected him to lie to Griffypoo so his role wouldn't have been revealed. Very confusing all around there. Looking back at his his posts about the only clue he left was yesterday with his list of suspects. Of course without knowing what his actual results were there's no way to know if that list was the results of his visions or as he said just his gut. And as they are without any context it is a little hard to figure out what type of Seer he might have been. I guess since Okaros is number 2 in the list that today might be a good test to see if he might have been on to something. As such I'll go with the group and vote on

Image
Okaros

One to see if maybe redead's list might have been some sort of list of his visions. The other because with the number of Wolves left we have to be mindful of splitting the vote too much since it could give them control of it.

Related to that is that he also listed blindsniper83 after Okaros. Now before San's reveal as a Contestant Seer, and very much the Vigilante Seer, I could have seen that role being given to the Wolves. As such I'm a little on the fence about if they would have been given 1 or 2 Vigilantes. My gut says 1 since giving them two seems a little overpowering. But if the counter to that was a reloadable Vigilante Seer it might be possible. Still it doesn't feel quite right for them to have two. I'd think the odds of the Vigilante Seer finding one much less two Vigilantes would be kind of low so it acting as a balance probably wouldn't work. So if Okaros is a Wolf I think that blindsniper83 is much more likely a Contestant and if not then blindsniper83 is the likely Wolf Vigilante.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Admetus » 14 Sep 2013, 12:20:48

Separate from this vote--

Griffypoo, when you listed redead as "Seer" among your role reveals, I realized what you were probably originally saying when you mentioned "a person with a sensitive role to protect." Maybe you were just saying that (clearly wrong) stuff about the Jailer to throw people off the extra seer you'd been talking with? I watched for a day to see what would come of it, but apparently the wolves just played it cool and ate him the next day.

Please tell me you had a record of his visions? I'm guessing on the free-PM day, that list might have been spread around a bit, but I didn't get a copy. Even if it implicates me, I'd like to see how it fits into the total picture of the seer results we've got. It might be able to get a fix on a Target Seer, for instance, or settle what type leiden is.

I can imagine it might have been a little weird to wonder if you were being played by a wolf team (since they would have definitely cooperated on feeding you interesting information if redead was a wolf), but he's now confirmed human, so we could definitely use the data.

pre-post-edit

What the hell, am I broadcasting on some kind of psychic frequency? I work on a post questioning the votes, and Okaros pops up. I work on a post about redead as seer, and Visigoth puts one in on the same topic.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Admetus » 14 Sep 2013, 12:22:19

Visigoth wrote:So if Okaros is a Wolf I think that blindsniper83 is much more likely a Contestant and if not then blindsniper83 is the likely Wolf Vigilante.

We're at Lynch or Lose. If Okaros is not the wolf vigilante, it doesn't much matter what Blindsniper is.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Visigoth » 14 Sep 2013, 12:30:37

Admetus wrote:
Visigoth wrote:So if Okaros is a Wolf I think that blindsniper83 is much more likely a Contestant and if not then blindsniper83 is the likely Wolf Vigilante.

We're at Lynch or Lose. If Okaros is not the wolf vigilante, it doesn't much matter what Blindsniper is.
Quite true. But I'm more saying that if Okaros is a wolf then it's unlikely that blindsniper83 is also a wolf. If Okaros is not a wolf, then well, yes we lost and it's a bit of a moot point that blindsniper83 was the wolf.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Blindsniper83 » 14 Sep 2013, 13:20:01

i am not the wolf vig, so either okaros is, or the wolves dont have one, or that the wolf Vig still has his shot, and is planning on causing some last minute antics
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Okaros » 14 Sep 2013, 13:56:16

Blindsniper83 wrote:i am not the wolf vig...


Could someone remind me which one of us shot a seer? It was so long ago I'm having trouble remembering.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Admetus » 14 Sep 2013, 14:07:14

Blindsniper83 wrote:i am not the wolf vig, so either okaros is, or the wolves dont have one, or that the wolf Vig still has his shot, and is planning on causing some last minute antics

If the wolves had a vigilante shot, this game would already be over. It was 6-5 after San died, one shot would have made it 5-5. We wouldn't be talking about this right now.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby necklessone » 15 Sep 2013, 05:57:51

Good morning, players. Only 12 hours left! Get those votes and night actions in.

Okaros : 6 : blindsniper83, Iron Clad Burrito, leiden, Griffypoo, Smirker, Visigoth
blindsniper83 : 1 : Okaros

No vote recorded (2) : Admetus, Aldax

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Admetus » 15 Sep 2013, 15:12:53

Still working on Target Seer chart.

[+] Seer results
ALDAX

Night 1: Ravebomb = "Wolf" (CJ)
Night 2: Hellheart = "Seer"
Night 3: Ozy = "Contestant" (HD)
Night 4: Mister Furin = "Seer"
Night 5: leiden = "No Result"
Night 6: leiden = "No Result"
Night 7: Leiden = "Seer"
Night 8: San = "Seer"
Night 9: Visigoth = "Seer"
Night 10: TBD

MISTER FURIN = CONFIRMED HUMAN SEER

Night 1: Griffypoo = "Wolf" (relayed by necklessone)
Night 2: Griffypoo = "Wolf"
Night 3: Iron Clad Burrito = "Wolf"
Night 4: Ozy = "No Result" (HD)
Night 5: twdog = "Contestant"
Dead

IONITOR = Confirmed Human.

Night 1: San = "Seer"
Night 2: San = "Seer"
Night 3: stigmata = "Seer"
Night 4: Visigoth = "Seer"
Night 5: sphenodont = "Seer"
Night 6: Ravebomb = "No Result" (CJ)
Night 7: Nitestorm = "Seer"
Dead

LEIDEN

Night 1: Ryvvn = "Contestant"
Night 2: Hellheart = "Contestant"
Night 3: Rekard = "No Result"
Night 4: Ionitor = "Seer"
Night 5: Ozy = "No Result" (HD)
Night 6: Ravebomb = "Wolf" (CJ)
Night 7: Smirker = No message back from GM.
Night 8: Smirker = "Contestant"
Night 9: Sphenodont = "Wolf"
Night 10: TBD

RICTUS - Confirmed Human Seer

Night 1: Hellheart = "Wolf"
Night 2: Did not vote
Night 3: Iron Clad Burrito = "Wolf"
Night 4: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 5: Ravebomb = "Wolf" (CJ)
Night 6: Smirker = "Wolf"
Night 7: Leiden: "No result"
Night 8: Leiden: "No result"
Dead

SAN - Confirmed Human Seer

DOM = "Contestant"
Griffypoo = "Contestant"
Omega = "Contestant"
Admetus = "Seer"
Aldax = "Seer"
Okaros = "Wolf"
blindsniper83 = "Wolf"
Dead

SMIRKER

Night 1: rekard = "Wolf"
Night 2: Ionitor = "Wolf"
Night 3: Iron Clad Burrito = "Wolf"
Night 4: blindsniper = "Wolf"
Night 5: Ozy = "No Result" (HD)
Night 6: Ozy = "Contestant" (HD)
Night 7: Ravebomb = "wolf" (CJ)
Night 8: Aldax = "wolf"
Night 9: redead = "Wolf"
Night 10: Visigoth = "Wolf"

SPHENODONT - Lying Wolf

Night 1: Ozy = "Contestant" (HD)
Night 2: Ozy = "Contestant" (HD)
Night 3: Mister Furin = "Contestant"
Night 4: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 5: San = "Contestant"
Night 6: Ionitor = "Contestant"
Night 7: Ravebomb = "No Result" (CJ)
Night 8: leiden = "Contestant"
Night 9: redead = "Contestant"
Dead


VISIGOTH

Night 1: sphenodont = "Seer"
Night 2: DOM = "Contestant"
Night 3: twdog = "Wolf"
Night 4: rekard = "Seer"
Night 5: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 6: Aldax = "No Result"
Night 7: San = "Seer"
Night 8: Rictus = "Contestant"
Night 9: Smirker = "Wolf"
Night 10: Iron Clad Burrito = "Seer"

Simple_Simon - Confirmed Human Seer
Stigmata - Confirmed Human Seer
Hellheart - Confirmed Human Seer
redead - Confirmed Human Seer

ICB Jailings
Night 1: twdog
Night 2: No target
Night 3: No target
Night 4: Iron Clad Burrito
Night 5: Ozymandias
Night 6: TBD
Night 7: TBD (Not Rictus, Sphenodont, RaveBomb, Leiden)
Night 8: TBD
Night 9: TBD
Night 10: TBD

Wolf Power Blockings?
Pretty hard to figure out.


I need Seer results for Leiden and Aldax.

ICB, can you give me more information on Jailing? We could fill in some Target Seer blanks. I think it's reasonable to trust your information, though I'm not yet willing to with leiden, Aldax, Smirker or Visigoth.

-edit-
Also, Seers please check I've updated correctly.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Admetus » 15 Sep 2013, 16:04:57

Okay, it actually doesn't matter for Target Seer who ICB targeted with jailings, except if leiden or Aldax targeted ICB on Night 10. Otherwise we have enough information to rule out a few seers there. (edit: chart link again)

FurinMirado and Rictus as Target Seer both hinge on whether ICB is a wolf. So ICB knows, and the rest of us are pretty sure but not 100% confident that they're not Target Seers.

Aldax and leiden still could be Target Seers. Would be nice to get Night 10 results for them. Even after getting so uppity at leiden yesterday, it turns out I can't rule out Target Seer for him unless I'm willing to take Smirker's word. Considering I just had to invalidate everything Sphenodont was saying, because he could have easily lied about his targets the whole time, I guess I was a bit hasty.


That means, for the seers remaining --

Aldax:
Possibly Target, Confused, Sane. Target someone who's not a Seer, please. Actually, you and ICB could settle this. Target ICB and tell us the result, then ICB will tell us his target.
Can't yet rule out: Insane, Mirrored, Rotating

leiden:
Possibly Vigilante or Target. I'm not ruling out Vigilante because Quantum could always have generated a second Vigilante Seer. Target Blindsniper or Okaros, whoever survives the lynch, maybe?
Can't yet rule out: Insane, Mirrored, Rotating

Smirker:
Possibly Paranoid
Can't yet rule out: Insane, Mirrored, Rotating

Visigoth:
Possibly Simple
Can't yet rule out: Insane, Mirrored, Rotating


5 contestants, 4 wolves.
We have the following claims:
Admetus - Contestant
Aldax - Seer
Blindsniper - Paparazzi
Griffypoo - Networker
ICB - Jailer
leiden - Seer
Okaros - going to be dead shortly, better be a wolf
Smirker - Seer
Visigoth - Seer

If we assume the game continues, so Okaros would be a wolf, there are 4 people claiming Seer, and 4 people claiming not-Seer. As ICB points out, 5 contestants doesn't really support 4 seers. We believe tomorrow we'll have 1 human Paparazzi, and 1 human Jailer, even if you believe Griffypoo and I might be wolves. At least one has to be lying. Since I know I'm not a wolf, it must be two or even three lying seers!
Last edited by Admetus on 15 Sep 2013, 16:16:30, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Admetus » 15 Sep 2013, 16:05:55

I'll put in the Okaros vote since nothing is going to change at this point. We'll just have to get lucky on the coin flip here.

We can talk Seers tomorrow. We know there are wolves in there.

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby Aldax » 15 Sep 2013, 16:18:47

Putting my vote onOkaros

Last night I managed to seer blindsniper... he was a contestant.

Now returning to my scheduled (and rainy as hell) 4 day weekend
Moral of the story: Never self-vig. - rekard

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Re: Day 11: The Finale

Postby necklessone » 15 Sep 2013, 18:00:29

((Same deal as last week. Breaking Bad > you guys. EOD will be slow))


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