First my results:
Night 1: sphenodont = "Seer"
Night 2: DOM = "Contestant"
Night 3: twdog = "Wolf"
Night 4: rekard = "Seer"
Night 5: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 6: Aldax = "No Result"
Night 7: San = "Seer"
Night 8: Rictus = "Contestant"
Night 9: Smirker = "Wolf"
Night 10: Iron Clad Burrito = "Seer"
Night 11: Griffypoo = "Contestant"
Shocker I'm sure. I'd really be surprised if I was anything other than a Simple Seer as the odds of me hitting this pattern as an Insane, Mirrored or Rotating Seer would have to be rather astronomical.
Admetus wrote:It would help a bit to have ICB's jail listings if I get a chance to do Mirrored Seer, but since those might tip the wolves to protection, I'm willing to start without them.
Yeah, I'd very much be against Iron Clad Burrito releasing his results since as you say the Wolves could use it to figure out who could be vulnerable due to being at the protection limit.
Admetus wrote:Leiden, target Blindsniper. You could be either Target or Vigilante Seer among the ones we can determine.
I guess I could see Target being back on the list but Vigilante? I see where you mention being the Quantum Seer and him resolving to a Vigilante, but I just don't see it. Partly I doubt that necklessone even had it in the game and just put it out there to cause a little bit of chaos. It probably doesn't hurt to have him target blindsniper83 tonight but even if it comes back as "Wolf" it doesn't mean he's the Vigilante Seer. Could just as easily be the Insane Seer.
In regards to sphenodont's results I think we should safely consider them all bunk, but not sure if we want to throw out who he targeted. As he was a Seer he'd still want to look at people and after twdog got caught with a fake Seer result I could see the Wolves wanting to be careful they didn't caught in that trap again. So his targets might have actually been true since he'd know for sure whether or not he got a result from that person or not so would know he'd be safe in listing them in his results. With that said to be on the safe side it probably would be best to disregard all his results or at least weight them accordingly when trying to see if someone might be a Target/Mirrored Seer.
I'm mixed on the current candidates. With Aldax you have results from him which look very much like a Sane Seer which I can't believe the Wolves wouldn't notice either. Well there are some other types he could be, but of the posted Seer results his seem to be somewhat useful so why is he still alive. I'm guessing he or I were jailed on Night 6 or I was power blocked which might explain why he didn't die that night if he was the one that was jailed. Other than the shields recently I can't figure out why he wouldn't have been mauled. Now I could certainly see the possibility that they might have been planning that so that he'd look suspicious thus setting him up for a late game fall. At the same time if he is Sane or even Confused it sure is risky to leave him out there since he could certainly find one of them and blow their plan. Of course the other option is that he's a Wolf (Seer or not) and was intentionally playing as the Sane Seer.
With Smirker the big question mark for me is if he's a Wolf why burn Ozymandias after attention had kind of shifted away from him for a couple of days. Now the obvious reason is that it would likely make Smirker very human looking to out and get him killed. And honestly it's a little hard to contest that since if he is a Wolf they had just lost twdog so the idea of throwing another Wolf away so soon does feel off. But then again it's Ozymandias and it was Day 7 so he was starting to reach his expiration date so maybe they figured now was as good of time as any and using Smirker to do it would be good for the long game. Smirker did point out that Ozymandias voted on him first so why would he do that if they're both wolves. Of course the same thing happened between dferrantino and Ozymandias on Day 4 so Ozymandias voting on and poking another Wolf has already happened so why not again.
The vote record also is a little troubling for both, but I think just about everyone has some bad spots in their records at this point.
While the wolves have a little less power tonight due to missing the maul I still think we need to focus on one target in order to try and prevent any last minute shenanigans by the Wolves. Of course that's assuming we don't have two Contestants as the current nominees. I hate to do it since I could go either way right now, but for now I'm going withAldax
One simply because he has two votes already on him and don't want to split the votes too much. But also because he was on redead's list so if Aldax does turn out to be a Wolf that will put that list a 2 for 4 so it might actually been his real results and he might have actually been a good Seer. Now if people want to switch over to Smirker I'd be good with that since he too is on redead's list (actually the first one listed) but for now I'm going with the current vote leader.