Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

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Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby necklessone » 15 Sep 2013, 18:40:44

"You're all a certain bunch, aren't you? Yet another bandwagon on some poor player."
Okaros : 8 : blindsniper83, Iron Clad Burrito, leiden, Griffypoo, Smirker, Visigoth, Admetus, Aldax
blindsniper83 : 1 : Okaros

The ice the champagne is resting on shifts and cracks. And then the screens light up. "WOLF PAPARAZZI"

The applause and confetti are old hat by now.

"Now, you're all probably curious about whether or not the Golden Shield did it's job. I'm sorry to inform you but the wolves…failed to maul last night. One of the shielded players was protected." More confetti and applause…and a gong? "This round, I will distribute two shields. As a reminder, players may not discuss whether or not they have a shield."

The lights dim and a spotlight illuminates Nick.

"5 contestants, 3 wolves. Over half way."

"So, contestants: who are the wolves?"

Okaros, Wolf Paparazzi - Lynched

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Admetus » 15 Sep 2013, 18:47:16

I um... I guess this is the thread we're using? Necklessone didn't come back to kill the duplicate, so... (e: necklessone fixed the duplicate thread)



Okay, I'm not sure anyone got through all my analysis since we were on a weekend with a not-dramatic vote. I was focusing at the end about the pigeonhole principle of role claims.

If we assume the game continues, so Okaros would be a wolf, there are 4 people claiming Seer, and 4 people claiming not-Seer. As ICB points out, 5 contestants doesn't really support 4 seers. We believe tomorrow we'll have 1 human Paparazzi, and 1 human Jailer, even if you believe Griffypoo and I might be wolves. At least one has to be lying. Since I know I'm not a wolf, it must be two or even three lying seers!


We should focus on a seer. At this moment, I'm inclined to believe Griffypoo is a human Networker. This makes three out of four of the seers liars.

My pick for wolfiest seer right now is Smirker. He's been sending out wolf vibes for quite a while. I don't think he's even a seer, after those suggestions for seers to calibrate using the lynch, and other strange comments. Also, now that we know Okaros was a wolf, it looks to me like Ozymandias staged a sacrfice play on Day 7. We weren't supposed to find Okaros, and we'd always trust the "seer" that started Ozy's lynch.

-edit-
Oooh, also Ozy spent a lot of time trying to invent reasons for why the wolves did not power block Smirker that day. The obvious reason seems clear in hindsight.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Smirker » 15 Sep 2013, 20:06:56

Interesting theory Admetus.

But, I'm definitely the wrong tree to bark up. Apparently i could only do a shield or a seering as my night action. So, i specified the shield had preference. My seering has done its job and I don't think we have a target seer to work off me anyway. And Ozy was making a hard of a case to take me out as he could, to get by as a handsome wolf. I'm glad I could get off my only (directly) valid seering on him.

[e]: Interesting. I jumped to the wrong conclusion when I posted this before as i'd not gotten a message at that point. So, necklessone clarified a follow-up question on the seering message. I apparently got both actions off last night and it was just that i didn't get the requested dossier for Griffypoo.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 16 Sep 2013, 06:19:07

Human:
Griffypoo
Iron Clad Burrito

Probably human:
blindsniper83

3 wolves:
Admetus
Aldax - claimed seer
leiden - claimed seer
Smirker - claimed seer
Visigoth - claimed seer

Day 9 votes:
San : 5 : Aldax, Admetus, Okaros, Smirker, sphenodont
Smirker : 2 : Visigoth, leiden

Day 8 votes:
Nitestorm : 4 : Aldax, Ionitor, sphenodont, Rictus
Ionitor : 3 : blindsniper83, Okaros, redead

Days 1-5:
[+] Votes for days 1-5
Day 1
Mister E. Meat - 6 - Omega, FurinMirado, mortus, twdog, Ozymandias, ionitor
ionitor - 4 - Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, Visigoth, rictus
simple_simon - 4 - Griffypoo, Aldax, Smirker, ryvvn
ryvvn - 3 - meta4, wasabi, sphenodont
hellheart - 2 - blindsniper83, redead
Ozymandias - 2 - nitestorm, dferrantino
Admetus - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
meta4 - 1 - leiden
mortus - 1 - Ravebomb
nitestorm - 1 - Admetus
Ravebomb - 1 - hellheart
rekard - 1 - simple_simon
san - 1 - stigmata
stigmata - 1 - Mister E. Meat
twdog - 1 - san
Visigoth - 1 - rekard

Day 2
mortus - 9 - Okaros, FurinMirado, DastardlyOldMan, Ravebomb, Admetus, Ozymandias, nitestorm, ionitor, ryvvn
Ravebomb - 7 - simple_simon, Omega, Aldax, Blindsniper83, mortus, Iron Clad Burrito, Smirker
nitestorm - 4 - leiden, Griffypoo, twdog, dferrantino
ionitor - 2 - meta4, stigmata
Aldax - 1 - hellheart
dferrantino - 1 - rekard
rekard - 1 - sphenodont
rictus - 1 - san
ryvvn - 1 - Visigoth

Day 3
Ravebomb - 8 - simple_simon, FurinMirado, ryvvn, rictus, nitestorm, Aldax, stigmata, ionitor
ryvvn - 8 - Smirker, Ozymandias, Omega, twdog, blindsniper83, Ravebomb, sphenodont, redead
FurinMirado - 5 - leiden, san, Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, Admetus
nitestorm - 2 - Griffypoo, Visigoth
Admetus - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
ionitor - 1 - rekard
Ozymandias - 1 - dferrantino

Day 4
dferrantino - 7 - Ozymandias, FurinMirado, stigmata, leiden, rictus, ionitor, redead
Ozymandias - 6 - Smirker, nitestorm, dferrantino, Ravebomb, Iron Clad Burrito, rekard
twdog - 3 - Visigoth, san, simple_simon
blindsniper83 - 2 - Griffypoo, twdog
simple_simon - 2 - Omega, Okaros
Ravebomb - 1 - Aldax
Smirker - 1 - sphenodont
stigmata - 1 - Admetus

Day 5
Omega - 7 - ionitor, Okaros, FurinMirado, rictus, twdog, rekard, Admetus
Smirker - 6 - Iron Clad Burrito, leiden, Ozymandias, stigmata, Ravebomb, sphenodont
Ravebomb - 3 - Smirker, Visigoth, Aldax
Griffypoo - 2 - nitestorm, blindsniper83
Admetus - 1 - san
blindsniper83 - 1 - Griffypoo


My vote today is Aldax. Every vote that wasn't a runaway vote for someone, Aldax had his vote on a human. All this time I thought Aldax was the sane seer. Ozy was probably right, there were 2 wolf seers. And if I'm right, Aldax, fuck me but you did a damn fine job of hiding this game. I literally didn't suspect you until near EOD yesterday. Well played.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Admetus » 16 Sep 2013, 07:07:49

Ozy was probably right, there were 2 wolf seers.

Ozy was a wolf. Personally, I'm thinking we're looking for fake seers, people who lied the whole game. That's why Smirker sticks out to me. He's said some pretty silly stuff.

I also think his voting record is just as bad as Aldax's. My colored charts are up to date as well, linky.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby leiden » 16 Sep 2013, 08:20:06

At this point, I'm just gonna follow ICB's lead.

I still have a sneaking suspicion on Smirker, but I just don't know anymore.

Aldax

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Admetus » 16 Sep 2013, 11:21:20

Not a lot of activity today. Maybe it's time to bring up the possibility of locking votes?

Also, I'd like to re-state my request from yesterday... the seer visions have slackened a bit.

[+] seer results
ALDAX

Night 1: Ravebomb = "Wolf" (CJ)
Night 2: Hellheart = "Seer"
Night 3: Ozy = "Contestant" (HD)
Night 4: Mister Furin = "Seer"
Night 5: leiden = "No Result"
Night 6: leiden = "No Result"
Night 7: Leiden = "Seer"
Night 8: San = "Seer"
Night 9: Visigoth = "Seer"
Night 10: Blindsniper = "Contestant"
Night 11: TBD

MISTER FURIN = CONFIRMED HUMAN SEER

Night 1: Griffypoo = "Wolf" (relayed by necklessone)
Night 2: Griffypoo = "Wolf"
Night 3: Iron Clad Burrito = "Wolf"
Night 4: Ozy = "No Result" (HD)
Night 5: twdog = "Contestant"
Dead

IONITOR = Confirmed Human.

Night 1: San = "Seer"
Night 2: San = "Seer"
Night 3: stigmata = "Seer"
Night 4: Visigoth = "Seer"
Night 5: sphenodont = "Seer"
Night 6: Ravebomb = "No Result" (CJ)
Night 7: Nitestorm = "Seer"
Dead

LEIDEN

Night 1: Ryvvn = "Contestant"
Night 2: Hellheart = "Contestant"
Night 3: Rekard = "No Result"
Night 4: Ionitor = "Seer"
Night 5: Ozy = "No Result" (HD)
Night 6: Ravebomb = "Wolf" (CJ)
Night 7: Smirker = No message back from GM.
Night 8: Smirker = "Contestant"
Night 9: Sphenodont = "Wolf"
Night 10: TBD
Night 11: TBD

RICTUS - Confirmed Human Seer

Night 1: Hellheart = "Wolf"
Night 2: Did not vote
Night 3: Iron Clad Burrito = "Wolf"
Night 4: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 5: Ravebomb = "Wolf" (CJ)
Night 6: Smirker = "Wolf"
Night 7: Leiden: "No result"
Night 8: Leiden: "No result"
Dead

SAN - Confirmed Human Seer

DOM = "Contestant"
Griffypoo = "Contestant"
Omega = "Contestant"
Admetus = "Seer"
Aldax = "Seer"
Okaros = "Wolf"
blindsniper83 = "Wolf"
Dead

SMIRKER

Night 1: rekard = "Wolf"
Night 2: Ionitor = "Wolf"
Night 3: Iron Clad Burrito = "Wolf"
Night 4: blindsniper = "Wolf"
Night 5: Ozy = "No Result" (HD)
Night 6: Ozy = "Contestant" (HD)
Night 7: Ravebomb = "wolf" (CJ)
Night 8: Aldax = "wolf"
Night 9: redead = "Wolf"
Night 10: Visigoth = "Wolf"
Night 11: No result (claimed shield prevented him from seering)

SPHENODONT - Lying Wolf

Night 1: Ozy = "Contestant" (HD)
Night 2: Ozy = "Contestant" (HD)
Night 3: Mister Furin = "Contestant"
Night 4: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 5: San = "Contestant"
Night 6: Ionitor = "Contestant"
Night 7: Ravebomb = "No Result" (CJ)
Night 8: leiden = "Contestant"
Night 9: redead = "Contestant"
Dead

VISIGOTH

Night 1: sphenodont = "Seer"
Night 2: DOM = "Contestant"
Night 3: twdog = "Wolf"
Night 4: rekard = "Seer"
Night 5: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 6: Aldax = "No Result"
Night 7: San = "Seer"
Night 8: Rictus = "Contestant"
Night 9: Smirker = "Wolf"
Night 10: Iron Clad Burrito = "Seer"
Night 11: TBD

Simple_Simon - Confirmed Human Seer
Stigmata - Confirmed Human Seer
Hellheart - Confirmed Human Seer
redead - Confirmed Human Seer

ICB Jailings
Night 1: twdog
Night 2: No target
Night 3: No target
Night 4: Iron Clad Burrito
Night 5: Ozymandias
Night 6: TBD
Night 7: TBD (Not Rictus, Sphenodont, RaveBomb, Leiden)
Night 8: TBD
Night 9: TBD
Night 10: TBD
Night 11: TBD


I need Seer results, two nights worth for Leiden.

It would help a bit to have ICB's jail listings if I get a chance to do Mirrored Seer, but since those might tip the wolves to protection, I'm willing to start without them.

Lastly, we can help figure out who is the real seer among the liars by continuing to refine what they are. This is one reason I was thinking we'd start with lynching Smirker, because we can still get more information about Aldax and leiden. Smirker... well, Smirker's seerings are apparently not going to be changing.

Aldax, (if you survive) target ICB, and tell us the result, then ICB will tell us who he protected. You could be either Sane or Target Seer among the ones we can determine.

Leiden, target Blindsniper. You could be either Target or Vigilante Seer among the ones we can determine.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby necklessone » 16 Sep 2013, 12:07:51

6 hours, folks. Let's get that energy flowing!

Aldax : 2 : Iron Clad Burrito, leiden
Smirker : 1 : Admetus

No vote recorded (5) : Aldax, blindsniper83, Griffypoo, Smirker, Visigoth

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 16 Sep 2013, 13:19:50

Look, if everyone wants to vote for Smirker, vote for Smirker. Don't follow me if you don't think I'm right.

I could support Smirker as well, looking over vote history.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Admetus » 16 Sep 2013, 13:47:10

Lots of outstanding votes. I will check in once around 8:00 during the break in practice.


Ohh, possible theory -- this time there might not be as quick a jump on the bandwagon because there are multiple choices, both wolves? Where are you at, peoples?

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Visigoth » 16 Sep 2013, 14:47:10

First my results:

Night 1: sphenodont = "Seer"
Night 2: DOM = "Contestant"
Night 3: twdog = "Wolf"
Night 4: rekard = "Seer"
Night 5: rekard = "Contestant"
Night 6: Aldax = "No Result"
Night 7: San = "Seer"
Night 8: Rictus = "Contestant"
Night 9: Smirker = "Wolf"
Night 10: Iron Clad Burrito = "Seer"
Night 11: Griffypoo = "Contestant"

Shocker I'm sure. I'd really be surprised if I was anything other than a Simple Seer as the odds of me hitting this pattern as an Insane, Mirrored or Rotating Seer would have to be rather astronomical.

Admetus wrote:It would help a bit to have ICB's jail listings if I get a chance to do Mirrored Seer, but since those might tip the wolves to protection, I'm willing to start without them.
Yeah, I'd very much be against Iron Clad Burrito releasing his results since as you say the Wolves could use it to figure out who could be vulnerable due to being at the protection limit.

Admetus wrote:Leiden, target Blindsniper. You could be either Target or Vigilante Seer among the ones we can determine.
I guess I could see Target being back on the list but Vigilante? I see where you mention being the Quantum Seer and him resolving to a Vigilante, but I just don't see it. Partly I doubt that necklessone even had it in the game and just put it out there to cause a little bit of chaos. It probably doesn't hurt to have him target blindsniper83 tonight but even if it comes back as "Wolf" it doesn't mean he's the Vigilante Seer. Could just as easily be the Insane Seer.

In regards to sphenodont's results I think we should safely consider them all bunk, but not sure if we want to throw out who he targeted. As he was a Seer he'd still want to look at people and after twdog got caught with a fake Seer result I could see the Wolves wanting to be careful they didn't caught in that trap again. So his targets might have actually been true since he'd know for sure whether or not he got a result from that person or not so would know he'd be safe in listing them in his results. With that said to be on the safe side it probably would be best to disregard all his results or at least weight them accordingly when trying to see if someone might be a Target/Mirrored Seer.

I'm mixed on the current candidates. With Aldax you have results from him which look very much like a Sane Seer which I can't believe the Wolves wouldn't notice either. Well there are some other types he could be, but of the posted Seer results his seem to be somewhat useful so why is he still alive. I'm guessing he or I were jailed on Night 6 or I was power blocked which might explain why he didn't die that night if he was the one that was jailed. Other than the shields recently I can't figure out why he wouldn't have been mauled. Now I could certainly see the possibility that they might have been planning that so that he'd look suspicious thus setting him up for a late game fall. At the same time if he is Sane or even Confused it sure is risky to leave him out there since he could certainly find one of them and blow their plan. Of course the other option is that he's a Wolf (Seer or not) and was intentionally playing as the Sane Seer.

With Smirker the big question mark for me is if he's a Wolf why burn Ozymandias after attention had kind of shifted away from him for a couple of days. Now the obvious reason is that it would likely make Smirker very human looking to out and get him killed. And honestly it's a little hard to contest that since if he is a Wolf they had just lost twdog so the idea of throwing another Wolf away so soon does feel off. But then again it's Ozymandias and it was Day 7 so he was starting to reach his expiration date so maybe they figured now was as good of time as any and using Smirker to do it would be good for the long game. Smirker did point out that Ozymandias voted on him first so why would he do that if they're both wolves. Of course the same thing happened between dferrantino and Ozymandias on Day 4 so Ozymandias voting on and poking another Wolf has already happened so why not again.

The vote record also is a little troubling for both, but I think just about everyone has some bad spots in their records at this point.

While the wolves have a little less power tonight due to missing the maul I still think we need to focus on one target in order to try and prevent any last minute shenanigans by the Wolves. Of course that's assuming we don't have two Contestants as the current nominees. I hate to do it since I could go either way right now, but for now I'm going with
Image
Aldax

One simply because he has two votes already on him and don't want to split the votes too much. But also because he was on redead's list so if Aldax does turn out to be a Wolf that will put that list a 2 for 4 so it might actually been his real results and he might have actually been a good Seer. Now if people want to switch over to Smirker I'd be good with that since he too is on redead's list (actually the first one listed) but for now I'm going with the current vote leader.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Smirker » 16 Sep 2013, 15:51:34

Yep, the suspicion on me is what's keeping me alive, I'm sure. But, I'm not going to debate that, because if me helping to out Ozy and to help lynch the wolves I have so far (not to mention my own transparency for us all to utilize) - then nothing will. I just hope we get a buffer before then.

Aldax is fine by me. With the multiple opportunities the wolves have had to take him out via mauling and failed to do so is extremely suspicious for an accurate seer.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Blindsniper83 » 16 Sep 2013, 16:27:53

Aldax
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby leiden » 16 Sep 2013, 16:35:51

I didn't seer anyone over the weekend.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Admetus » 16 Sep 2013, 17:05:34

Aldax is fine for today. Man that is hard to do properly on a phone.

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby Smirker » 16 Sep 2013, 17:53:25

leiden wrote:I didn't seer anyone over the weekend.

Why?

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Re: Day 12: The Finale - Second Lynch

Postby necklessone » 16 Sep 2013, 18:04:09

Commercial.


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