Day 4: South Pass

Adventure, the great outdoors, and near-certain death.
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The Fairy Catmother
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Day 4: South Pass

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 16 Sep 2016, 23:46:53

Image

Despite the news of Omega's contracting dysentery, the party opted to continue on their journey. The Willamette Valley was calling, and Chimney Rock was beginning to look less and less impressive - generic rock formations that jut from the ground are a dime a dozen.
Soon it became clear that Omega would not die quietly - he had something to share with the group. With a shaking hand, he pulled Jrsthethird close.
"Son, I know what you are."
Everyone struggled to make sense of his words. "What?" "What did say?" "What does that mean?!"
Jrsthethird insisted that Omega was just a crazy old kook, but others had more interesting theories.
When he thought the confusion had gone on long enough, Omega called for your attention. "Hear this! I am the seer! And I know who has infected me with this horrible disease! It was Admetus!"
And with that, he collapsed.
In a great moment of teamwork and agreement, the like of which has rarely been seen, you all pointed your weapons at Admetus and fired.
You left Admetus' body behind, but Omega deserved a proper burial. Dferrantino and DastardlyOldMan volunteered to bury him, and then it was time to soldier on.
You traveled the rest of the day in silence, still wondering who else among you may have contracted dysentery.
Everyone bade goodnight to their friends that night, knowing it could be the last time.
When the morning came, you checked on the rest of your party one by one.
Both dferrantino and DastardlyOldMan were dead. It looked like dferrantino had hung on to life for a long while. His body was still warm.
If only you had rested.


Admetus - lynched - wolf
Omega - dysentery - human seer
dferrantino - dysentery - human
DastardlyOldMan - dysentery - human

FINAL TALLY:

Admetus - 16 - Anzig, Omega, jrsthethird, Jehos, Gungnir888, RaveBomb, rekard, Mister E. Meat, Ryvvn, sphenodont, DastardlyOldMan, Rictus, Aldax, Blindsniper83, asbath, twdog
jrsthethird - 1 - Admetus
sphenodont - 1 - Penalty

No vote: dferrantino

Continue on - 13 - Rictus, Anzig, Jehos, Gungnir888, rekard, Mister E. Meat, jrsthethird, Omega, Ryvvn, DastardlyOldMan, Aldax, Blindsniper83, twdog
Rest - 4 - Admetus, asbath, RaveBomb, sphenodont

No vote: dferrantino

Day 4 will end Sunday, September 18 at 10 pm PT

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Ryvvn » 17 Sep 2016, 03:37:40

Probably no real point in posting this, nonetheless:

Day 1
necklessone --7-- asbath11, sphenodont12, jrsthethird17, aldax20, twdog26, zark28, ryvvn29
zark --5-- gungnir4, dastardlyoldman14, rictus19, anzig21, necklessone23
ryvvn --4-- dferrantino5, ravebomb6, admetus18, blindsniper22, zark27
ravebomb --1-- ryvvn1, mister e meat24
rictus --1-- rekard2, twdog25
rekard --1-- clearasday3
clearasday --1-- omega10
anzig --1-- visigoth15
dastardlyoldman --0-- jrsthethird8, zark16
aldax --0-- mister e meat7
asbath --0-- anzig9
gungnir --0-- zark13

Day 2
mister e meat --4-- ryvvn1, dferrantino2, jrsthethird9, asbath10, visigoth17
visigoth --4-- gungnir3, jehos4, mister e meat16, ryvvn18
rekard --4-- dastardlyoldman6, anzig8, twdog15, rictus19
jehos --2-- penalty0, ravebomb7
anzig --1-- visigoth11, rekard14, aldax20
blindsniper --1-- admetus5
ravebomb --1-- blindsniper12
jrsthethird --1-- omega13

Day 3
admetus -1-- anzig8, omega9, jrsthethird10, jehos11, gungnir12, ravebomb13, rekard14, mister e meat15, ryvvn16, sphenodont17, dastardlyoldman18, rictus19, aldax20, blindsniper21, asbath22, twdog23
jrsthethird --1-- mister e meat2, gungnir3, rictus4, admetus5, asbath6, jehos7
sphenodont --1-- penalty0
rekard --0-- jrsthethird1

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Ryvvn » 17 Sep 2016, 04:47:18

Of particular note to me is Anzig singling out Admetus yesterday before Omega's reveal.

As well as everyone who voted for Jrs before the reveal because, as was pointed out, the wolves would know the seer result was off but would happily jump on a misleading bandwagon. It seems likely there is at least one more wolf in that batch of votes:
  • MEM's day one play is still strange, but I felt less confident about pursuing it as day two went on.
  • Gungnir being the early vote on zark and the early vote on visigoth doesn't say much.
  • Rictus is on zark in what Omega has called the wolf sweet spot, and then on the tail end of rekard who is still unknown.
  • Asbath is in what I consider suspicious positions on days one and two.
  • Jehos missed day one which always sucks for analysis, and then hopped on to bring visigoth to a quick two after mem was the opening at two.

And of those, MEM and Gungnir first found me merely suspicious because I was "defending" Jrs -- later Gungnir even says he could buy into the possibility of a third faction -- but then both immediately switch their tone to "Let's kill him tomorrow" after Omega simply said he would have seered me if he weren't going to die; they extrapolated Omega's focused interest in me to outright call for my head! To be fair, Omega did later say he also thinks I'm a wolf, but if my fault was reacting strongly to Omega's false reveal of a seer result, these two acted rather strongly to the seer simply saying he would have peeked at me.

Following that, Gungnir at least conversed with me on the matter, MEM just comes off as opportunistic, even pulling up a day two dferr quote musing about my day one self-protection vote. I say self protection because I wasn't in immediate danger but worried about snipes and the missing Jehos vote, what I was referring to by shenanigans.

So I guess, right now, I'm most suspicious of Anzig, MEM, and Asbath. I don't think MEM and Asbath could both be wolves based on the clear danger Asbath put MEM in on day two, but I'm having trouble deciding between the two: Asbath for his vote placements or MEM for his attitude toward me. However, Anzig's seemingly random vote on Admetus, again before the reveal, along with his post, screams out at me:
Anzig on Day 3 wrote:I'm all for the bandwagon on Jrs, but in case the vig decides to act on a guaranteed non-fog day, I want to have a viable backup lynch in place that isn't chosen by a high potential furry one.

I'm also of the opinion that the added risk of 10% to each of the dysentery deaths is worth one more day of whatever benefit we get in the Willamette valley. Especially if our seer is going away tonight.

#Vote for: admetus

#Vote for: press on


That's about all the analysis I can think to offer, and with it being a long weekend day, I imagine there won't be much discussion.


#Vote for: Anzig

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Jrsthethird » 17 Sep 2016, 12:17:23

The suspicion on Anzig makes sense. Out of the three you mentioned, I'm most confident that MEM is human.

I will stick with my thoughts yesterday for now and
#Vote for: asbath
for now. His voting history is most suspect to me.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby sphenodont » 17 Sep 2016, 14:50:20

#Vote for: anzig


Ryvvn's logic seems sounds to me (at this juncture).

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Gungnir888 » 17 Sep 2016, 16:33:14

#Vote for: mem

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Mister E. Meat » 17 Sep 2016, 17:45:16

#Vote for: Ryvvn
, that's an interesting theory on Anzig but right now you're by far the most suspicious to me. If you flip human, I'd say that's a good lead to follow for the future.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby asbath » 17 Sep 2016, 17:57:59

Jrsthethird wrote:The suspicion on Anzig makes sense. Out of the three you mentioned, I'm most confident that MEM is human.

I will stick with my thoughts yesterday for now and
#Vote for: asbath
for now. His voting history is most suspect to me.

That makes sense. Sound logic. I should
#Vote for: asbath
, too, then

Wait, shit, no, bad idea.

As much as Ryvvn makes a lot of sense, I have to at least partially think it a deflection technique: make everybody else look suspicious, and skulk around whilst the rest bicker and quibble over what remains.

So I actually
#Vote for: Ryvvn
until I have a better sense of whether he's truly dissecting all actions to best determine a target to ensure survival, or he's dissecting all actions to create noise.

(OT: what long weekend is it for you guys south of the '49?)

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Jrsthethird » 17 Sep 2016, 18:16:54

Nothing special this weekend. We traditionally do 48 hour days on the weekends because people are usually busy with family/whatever during the weekend and may not have as much time to spend dissecting bad arguments as they do during downtime at their 9 to 5's.

When you don't have a "day job", it's a bit slow.

Also, FWIW, Ryvvn always creates a lot of noise. This is not out of the ordinary for him, at least in the few games I've played.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby asbath » 17 Sep 2016, 18:34:23

Ah, Ryvvn had mentioned a "long weekend day". I thought it meant an actual long weekend like a stat holiday of some sort. Was only curious. In that case, carry on pointing fingers!

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Rictus » 17 Sep 2016, 19:31:59

So I spent some time this evening re-reading the threads, and thought I'd throw it out here for the rest of the group. None of it is particularly revealing, it seems like I came to the same conclusions as some other people.

People I think are human:
sphendont: He put the early vote on wolf-necklessone to tie him with Ryvvn. Seems legit.

ryvvn: Early in Day 1, wolf-Admetus puts a vote on Ryvvn to tie Ryvvn and wolf-necklessone at 3 votes each. It seems like a bold move for a wolf to create a two wolf tie. Admetus could have voted for zark and achieved the same protection of necklessone. NOTE: If ryvvn's not human then the rest of this chain of analysis collapses like the bullshit that it is.

jrsthethird: Pushes necklessone out in front of ties, and early enough where I don't think it was a wolf playing for credibility. Also, his reactions on Day 3 when named "not human" seemed more human than wolf. His analysis of asbath matches mine.


People I'm suspicious about:
twdog: at the end of day 1, his vote on wolf-necklessone could be a wolf jumping for human cred.
rekard: his play has been off this game. Just a gut read at this point.
asbath: he's in a bad spot being the early voter on necklessone.



Finally, I wanted to remember the echoing words of ghost-wolf-Admetus from day 1:
Personally, I find shotgun Day 1 votes to mean multiple timid wolves hoping to avoid notice. You can look at the last game for an example (the lumberjack one at the bottom of the forums).


I interpreted it to mean that the wolves were clustering up on the three bandwagons. Seems like a classic misinformation post. If you want to compare that with ryvvn's Day 1 chart, it was made right after vote 15 (visigoth singleton on Anzig). Neither of our two known wolves (neckless and admetus) had voted yet. So if we look at the snapshot in time just a few votes later:

Day 1

necklessone --3-- asbath11, sphenodont12, jrsthethird17,
zark --3-- gungnir4, dastardlyoldman14, rictus19,
ryvvn --3-- dferrantino5, ravebomb6, admetus18,
dastardlyoldman --2-- jrsthethird8, zark16
rictus --1-- rekard2,
rekard --1-- clearasday3
clearasday --1-- omega10
anzig --1-- visigoth15
aldax --1-- mister e meat7
asbath --1-- anzig9

The snapshot makes me look hard at asbath, gungnir, and ravebomb. So at this point, I'm up to about five suspicious players, and I haven't even started commenting on the cryptic single posters. At this point I need to pick one.

#Vote for: asbath
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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Rictus » 17 Sep 2016, 19:39:11

Current tally (I think):

Anzig -- 2 -- Ryvvn, sphenodont
Asbath -- 2 -- Jrsthethird, rictus
ryvvn -- 2 -- MEM, asbath
MEM - -- gungnir888

remaining: 11 votes
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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Jehos » 17 Sep 2016, 23:52:14

Yeesh, flooding, cannibalism, now three dead of dysentery and possibly an AIDS epidemic? Why didn't I stay home and go to law school?

Oh right, it's because I can't stand all the yapping and talking in circles.

#Vote for: Ryvvn
, I'm having a hard time buying your analysis. It seems like there's a new set of theories every day. I don't know if you're being defensive, or are an overly chatty wolf, but it's time to find out.
DAMN YOU RICTUS!!!

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Mister E. Meat » 18 Sep 2016, 13:21:13

Jehos, 100% agreed. It feels like he keeps throwing things at the wall to see if anything will stick. Hopefully we'll get some traction on it to see how he turns. I'm pretty worried that even with Omega basically saying, hey this behavior seems really suspicious that people aren't voting enough on him to get the lynch.

If he's human, then we can easily go back and reevaluate his analysis with a fresh eye but right now it feels like someone desperate to stay alive. And for me, the question is why.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Ryvvn » 18 Sep 2016, 14:49:37

Day 2, suspicious of MEM, and still am.
Day 3, suspicious of Asbath for vote placements, still am.
Day 4, state I do not believe both Asbath and MEM can both be wolves; there are still other places to look for wolves and Anzig's move was suspicious.

Throwing around too many theories, seeing what sticks? Come again.

If I flip human then we can revisit my suspicions? In other words you can forcibly push the deaths of other humans I may offhandedly named as forceful as you're pushing this?

I guarantee at least one of the three on my wagon right now is a wolf.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Blindsniper83 » 18 Sep 2016, 15:43:08

Ryvvn wrote:
I guarantee at least one of the three on my wagon right now is a wolf.

i will agree with you there, if only to give wolf cred if you do turn wolf, or to hide if you turn human,
#Vote for: Jehos
, for now, possibly be back later, pursade me otherwise
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Mister E. Meat » 18 Sep 2016, 17:15:54

Blindsniper83 wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:
I guarantee at least one of the three on my wagon right now is a wolf.

i will agree with you there, if only to give wolf cred if you do turn wolf, or to hide if you turn human,
#Vote for: Jehos
, for now, possibly be back later, pursade me otherwise

:?: I can't parse this at all. Can anyone?

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Anzig » 18 Sep 2016, 18:37:48

I gotta think that Omega was on to something.

Plus I wanna, ya know, live to see Montana Oregon.

#Vote for: Ryvvn

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Anzig » 18 Sep 2016, 18:40:16

Mister E. Meat wrote:
Blindsniper83 wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:
I guarantee at least one of the three on my wagon right now is a wolf.

i will agree with you there, if only to give wolf cred if you do turn wolf, or to hide if you turn human,
#Vote for: Jehos
, for now, possibly be back later, pursade me otherwise

:?: I can't parse this at all. Can anyone?


I parse it as
Jehos: Odds are Ryvvn is right, but that doesn't mean squat for his wolf-nes/humanity.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby rekard » 18 Sep 2016, 19:05:16

Hello I am back!

I almost forgot the day and kept losing my posts. So I was seeing the human Zark wagon on day 1:

zark --5-- gungnir4, dastardlyoldman14, rictus19, anzig21, necklessone23

DOM and Neck are dead ( human and wolf respectively).

From those three I see Anzig and Rictus as the most likely wolves given that they kept saving Necklessone on day 1. Anzig does not talk much and Ryvvn's reasoning on him sort of makes sense but it's a bit more based in his gut I would say. And well his attempt to "solve the riddle" last day made him look unfavorable to players. Not saying Ryvvn is human yet because I consider him capable enough of killing a wolf for the sake of buying credibility.

Rictus though, his reasoning I find incredibly flawed. He thinks asbath is wolfy becuase he made an early vote on necklessone, and he also says sphenodont looks human because of his early vote. That makes no sensd at all. Also, given that he apparently read the votes of that day, it's weird how he doesn't mention at all how he, Anzig, or Blindsniper were pretty much helping Neck on day 1 by making the ties keep going in favor of neck. So voting for a wolf is now more suspicious than tying a human with the wolf? His post seemed to me more like a distraction to point players towards a different direction.

Also MEM has been giving an overall tone of constant accusation and leaping at the chance. It is kinda weird. I can't pinpoint exactly though.

Also this wagon on Ryvvn looks weird. Hmmm.

Let's go for
#Vote for: Rictus


He smells like fur.

Also guys, I think those in the wagons of Zark and Ryvvn are best fit for a lynch and with the biggest chances of having a wolf. I will dare say thatwolves are likely going to vote for people on neck's day 1 wagon given that it gives plenty of room to hide.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby asbath » 18 Sep 2016, 19:08:53

Anzig wrote:I gotta think that Omega was on to something.

Plus I wanna, ya know, live to see Montana Oregon.

#Vote for: Ryvvn

I still believe Omega was on to something. And I still hold on to the "Not Human" claim. Maybe I was premature to believe Jrsthethird was a wolf, but "Not Human" means he's something else. Guardian Angel? Village Idiot? Sasquatch?

Maybe he'll reveal down the road to be our one true saviour. Or maybe he'll turn out to be the den's alpha and slaughter us all. Who knows. But I still stand by my original vote, until it was later revealed about Admetus, because "Not Human" to me means "might not be one of the best road trip buddies of the group".

My vote for Ryvvn is mostly because I'm getting wary of his theories.

I might be reading this wrong, but I feel Anzig's voting is more survival than picking off the hens in the coop.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby rekard » 18 Sep 2016, 19:29:34

Uhm. Omega said he never seered jrs at all. Everything he said about jrs was a lie and just a ploy to try to get wolves to do some eager jump.

He said at the end that he had only seered DOM and Admetus.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Rictus » 18 Sep 2016, 19:40:08

Here's the votes, still a few hours before EOD.

Ryvvn: 4 : MisterEMeat, asbath, Jehos, Anzig
Anzig: 2 : Ryvvn, sphenodont
asbath: 2 : Jrsthethird, rictus
MisterEMeat : 1 : gungnir888
Jehos: 1 : blindsniper
Rictus: 1 : rekard

Remaining: Aldax, twdog, Ravebomb
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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby RaveBomb » 18 Sep 2016, 20:14:10

#Vote for: asbath
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby asbath » 18 Sep 2016, 20:17:26

rekard wrote:Uhm. Omega said he never seered jrs at all. Everything he said about jrs was a lie and just a ploy to try to get wolves to do some eager jump.

He said at the end that he had only seered DOM and Admetus.

Oof, I fail at reading. I should go back to the 2nd grade.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Jrsthethird » 18 Sep 2016, 20:19:01

I'm a bit bothered by the amount of singletons over the weekend. I'm not sold on Ryvvn either; I'll admit he's hard to read and a bit hard to follow sometimes, but my wolf read on him is rather low. This feels more like typical Ryvvn behavior.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Ryvvn » 18 Sep 2016, 20:53:15

With little more than an hour to go until EoD, I wouldn't be surprised if twdog and aldax fail to show up and place votes in time; so, while I still feel unsure between asbath and mem, self-defense makes choosing irrelevant.

#Vote for: asbath

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby rekard » 18 Sep 2016, 21:04:32

Hmm. I wonder. I just noticed that Blindsniper was perfectly fine with voting on a bandwagon on day 1 where no one knows nothing. But after that, he goes back to lone votes.

And it doesn't look like he did it in a rush as he clearly shows he read the thread.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby Ryvvn » 18 Sep 2016, 21:12:36

rekard wrote:Hmm. I wonder. I just noticed that Blindsniper was perfectly fine with voting on a bandwagon on day 1 where no one knows nothing. But after that, he goes back to lone votes.

And it doesn't look like he did it in a rush as he clearly shows he read the thread.

Looking at the charts, if the wolves went heavy to try and save Neckless day 1, then blindsniper makes sense on a team with both anzig and asbath; anzig and blind came in right after the fourth vote fell on neckless, pushing zark and me (respectively) to the three way tie with neckless at 4 votes each.

edit: actually makes sense with an anzig/mem combo too, but since I have to vote asbath here, I'm obviously hoping he's the wolf over mem.

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Re: Day 4: South Pass

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 18 Sep 2016, 22:00:32

Day 4 has ended.


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