Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

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Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Okaros » 07 Dec 2016, 20:18:22

Well, that didn't go quite to plan. But at least you got rid of that pesky Visigoth!

Note: Since Rictus was lynched his maul vote didn't happen, therefore Visi won the maul vote. Been a while since we've had the lynch vote impact a maul vote, so I thought I'd call this out explicitly. :)
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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 08:04:27

Nobody has been voting in solidarity with Admetus. Right now, I'm leaning towards excluding Ravebomb from out list of karate experts, as letting him go into a tie for lynch seems too risky this early in the game. That leaves Jrs, Ryvvn, rekard, San.

I'm a little concerned Admetus is hanging Jrs out there to see who votes where and read the room. For now I'm inclined to hang out and see if Admetus takes a shot or jails somebody.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 08:46:59

Hm. I do like Rictus's idea of going through the list to find Marco, so who do we think is best here?

Jrsthethird - Likely to get lynched soon. If he's not Marco I imagine Admetus will take care of him for us anyway.
Ryvvn - Neutral.
rekard - Oddly detached this game.
RaveBomb - I think Rave-being-Rave is going to get himself lynched this game.
San - Hopefully I've been fucking with him enough to make him a lightning rod.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 08:47:34

Gungnir888 wrote:Nobody has been voting in solidarity with Admetus. Right now, I'm leaning towards excluding Ravebomb from out list of karate experts, as letting him go into a tie for lynch seems too risky this early in the game. That leaves Jrs, Ryvvn, rekard, San.

I'm a little concerned Admetus is hanging Jrs out there to see who votes where and read the room. For now I'm inclined to hang out and see if Admetus takes a shot or jails somebody.

Definitely don't follow my vote onto him. That way lies dragons.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 08:48:25

More than welcome to vote on him later on, but if it's the two of us following on then one of us is boned.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 08:51:35

Other question is my ability usage today. Obviously I need to use Illusion to keep her from Seering tomorrow. That said, if she jails somebody, it might make sense to skip a day to throw that player under the bus. I missed my chance with FCM the other day, and I think at this point the only way I can make it work is if I skip an Illusion day for it, since I think most players would assume that's an opportunity we wouldn't burn.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 09:31:49

dferrantino wrote:Other question is my ability usage today. Obviously I need to use Illusion to keep her from Seering tomorrow. That said, if she jails somebody, it might make sense to skip a day to throw that player under the bus. I missed my chance with FCM the other day, and I think at this point the only way I can make it work is if I skip an Illusion day for it, since I think most players would assume that's an opportunity we wouldn't burn.


I love this idea. I can even see it working in our favor, as there is a very good chance a no power night will be followed up with a vig shot.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 09:34:45

Gungnir888 wrote:
dferrantino wrote:Other question is my ability usage today. Obviously I need to use Illusion to keep her from Seering tomorrow. That said, if she jails somebody, it might make sense to skip a day to throw that player under the bus. I missed my chance with FCM the other day, and I think at this point the only way I can make it work is if I skip an Illusion day for it, since I think most players would assume that's an opportunity we wouldn't burn.


I love this idea. I can even see it working in our favor, as there is a very good chance a no power night will be followed up with a vig shot.

Actually, I'm not sure anymore. I could also see it being followed up with a Seer, clearing that person immediately. Since, you know, we're giving him that opportunity.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 11:39:16

dferrantino wrote:Hm. I do like Rictus's idea of going through the list to find Marco, so who do we think is best here?

Jrsthethird - Likely to get lynched soon. If he's not Marco I imagine Admetus will take care of him for us anyway.
Ryvvn - Neutral.
rekard - Oddly detached this game.
RaveBomb - I think Rave-being-Rave is going to get himself lynched this game.
San - Hopefully I've been fucking with him enough to make him a lightning rod.


This is the kicker for me. rekard is not acting like rekard. Should we play the group off that or go in for the kill?

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 11:56:55

For posterity:

Ryvvn wrote:To me it feels like whoever is playing Ludo is not making best use of their spells, and I'm looking at players who would fit that.

I'll give you that the Night 0 Illusion may not have been the best play, but other than that you've already answered your own question:

Then, using Buff and seemingly randomly selecting San is (intentionally?) confusing.

It's 100% intentional. Misdirect, misdirect, misdirect...

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 13:15:43

The Fairy Catmother wrote:Or Ludo could be a very devious player who is just trying to throw us off.

:D

The kicker is that I just spent half of the Single Thread game fucking with them, too.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 13:17:20

Gungnir888 wrote:
dferrantino wrote:Hm. I do like Rictus's idea of going through the list to find Marco, so who do we think is best here?

Jrsthethird - Likely to get lynched soon. If he's not Marco I imagine Admetus will take care of him for us anyway.
Ryvvn - Neutral.
rekard - Oddly detached this game.
RaveBomb - I think Rave-being-Rave is going to get himself lynched this game.
San - Hopefully I've been fucking with him enough to make him a lightning rod.


This is the kicker for me. rekard is not acting like rekard. Should we play the group off that or go in for the kill?

I'd rather not make it too obvious. What you said is good, though, I think. Enough to plant the seed, and knowing rekard he'll probably jump on it and we can use his defensiveness against him. Particularly since he already tried to excuse it with his comment.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 13:32:45

dferrantino wrote:
Gungnir888 wrote:
dferrantino wrote:Other question is my ability usage today. Obviously I need to use Illusion to keep her from Seering tomorrow. That said, if she jails somebody, it might make sense to skip a day to throw that player under the bus. I missed my chance with FCM the other day, and I think at this point the only way I can make it work is if I skip an Illusion day for it, since I think most players would assume that's an opportunity we wouldn't burn.


I love this idea. I can even see it working in our favor, as there is a very good chance a no power night will be followed up with a vig shot.

Actually, I'm not sure anymore. I could also see it being followed up with a Seer, clearing that person immediately. Since, you know, we're giving him that opportunity.

Do you have an opinion on this? I'm going back and forth on it.

Situation 1 (good!): Admetus immediately decides that whoever got jailed has to be Ludo and shoots them.
Situation 2 (neutral?): He seers whoever got jailed, clears them as human, and we lynch someone else and maul that person.
Situation 3 (dice roll!): He decides that whoever got jailed is probably Ludo and it isn't worth wasting a Seer on them. He instead Seers someone else. This either exposes (and lynches) a wolf, clears a human (who we maul) and gets the jailee lynched, or clears a human and gets someone random lynched.

Situation 2 is a wash, I think. It prevents us from mauling Marco, but Admetus wastes 2 abilities on the same person and whoever was cleared is mauled immediately so the info doesn't matter.
Situation 3 I'm really worried about. It either gets one of us killed (which is really bad), gets the jailee lynched (which is really good) or...does nothing?

Oh, and both situation 2 and 3 end up being terrible if he jails you. Or me, but in that case we don't have a choice.

e: Situation 1 is pretty terrible there too, just for completion's sake.
Last edited by dferrantino on 08 Dec 2016, 13:42:04, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 13:40:15

Clearly if I get jailed you should drop a power. I don't think they will decide to lynch another inmate if we get FCM today and she turns human, and I am way more confident in my ability to argue that point than me not being Ludo after no power was used. The only way that plays into a win is if another player misses a vote. I get killed as a wolf, the next day they go after whoever missed. Unless it's Admetus. Or Marco. Yeah, if I get jailed, use an ability.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 13:42:04

Are you going to be around near EOD? If somebody else gets jailed I like our chances of playing it out. Especially if that person is rekard. If no jail power is used, prevent a seering tomorrow.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 13:43:15

Yeah I'm going to set an alarm so I don't forget (like I almost did last night). I'm in the late stages of a hilarious Civ 6 game so I might not notice what time it is...

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 13:55:59

Is there a missing GM flag? Typically I don't think we can click on people's posts to read their history during a game, but that access seems open. Is that because the wolves aren't under restrictions?

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Okaros » 08 Dec 2016, 13:56:48

Gungnir888 wrote:Is there a missing GM flag? Typically I don't think we can click on people's posts to read their history during a game, but that access seems open. Is that because the wolves aren't under restrictions?


Hrm? I don't remember post history being blocked. I'll double-check my board setup just to be sure...

Edit: No, I've got things configured correctly. And if I log in as SHODAN (a non-player) and do a post history search on Rictus it only shows his day-thread postings.
Edit2: Same is true if I make SHODAN a human.
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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 13:59:56

Thank you, sir. I just want to make sure the humans can't click to read our posts.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Okaros » 08 Dec 2016, 14:05:50

I also tested with you specifically, Gungnir, and didn't see anything other than day-thread posts. You're safe.
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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 14:07:03

I do regret getting on late (like, literally, had just lay down to go to sleep and realized it was 10 minutes to 11) and having to make a snap call on my secondary target last night. JRS or FCM would have been obvious choices.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 14:08:34

I reread what Okaros wrote about randomly choosing a spell if rekard was Ludo. We won't be able to pin a missed spell on a missing player, so take the rest of my analysis with a healthly tablespoon of salt.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Okaros » 08 Dec 2016, 14:10:57

Yeah, I deliberately don't want missing a vote to serve as a Ludo identification method.
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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 14:50:21

dferrantino wrote:Hm. I do like Rictus's idea of going through the list to find Marco, so who do we think is best here?

Jrsthethird - Likely to get lynched soon. If he's not Marco I imagine Admetus will take care of him for us anyway.
Ryvvn - Neutral.
rekard - Oddly detached this game.
RaveBomb - I think Rave-being-Rave is going to get himself lynched this game.
San - Hopefully I've been fucking with him enough to make him a lightning rod.


I think rekard is Marco, as I can't remember a game where he was quiet. We may be able to rally the group around him tomorrow, but Admetus can nix that by declaring who it is.

I don't see how we get RB lynched. The chances of wolves putting each other up for bandwagons is pretty unlikely, so with Rictus gone, we will need an honest human to propose RB also being a wolf. Even if that happens, I'd feel forced to argue against the point, as that is what human me would do.

I guess I'm leaning towards Ryvvn or RB as our best targets for tonight. Do we want to get a vote in just in case something happens to keep you from checking in later?

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 15:19:16

Possible. Do we want to maul him to be sure or get rid of Ryvvn or Rave? On my phone right now, so I'll check in a sec, but who started the ball rolling on FCM?

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 15:20:50

Oh gross it was Jrs.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 15:46:49

Oh man, Ryvvn just put both Rave and Admetus in a really shitty spot. Best wolf ever.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 16:57:10

:slow_clap:

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 17:44:38

...and a random switch to rekard?

I think he just made himself about 15x easier to lynch.

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Gungnir888 » 08 Dec 2016, 18:58:39

We still need a maul. Thoughts?

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby Okaros » 08 Dec 2016, 19:22:12

Now that Gungnir's been jailed It's all on you, dferr. Maul and spell?
(Incidentally, Gungnir loses access to the wolf forum while he stews in jail. Not for any explicit reason, more that I didn't want to manage yet another group. :) )
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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 19:38:42

Jrsthethird - God damn it I was hoping we'd get him killed.
Ryvvn - Made some super suspicious moves at the end of the night. Like, super suspicious.
rekard - dying tonight? Admetus is voting on him (and basically allowing him to die) so probably not Marco.
RaveBomb - Tied the game...when that was literally the last thing he should have been doing.
San - San is San.

Odd that he'd pull Gungnir off of FCM and not Jrs or rekard. Suggests that neither of them are Marco, which means it's Rave or San.

Have to use Illusion tonight to delay the seering, but that'll force him to Vig someone (unless he decides to go with it anyway, which would be an odd decision). Question is, do I use it on myself or on one of the humans?

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 19:39:03

Okaros wrote:Now that Gungnir's been jailed It's all on you, dferr. Maul and spell?
(Incidentally, Gungnir loses access to the wolf forum while he stews in jail. Not for any explicit reason, more that I didn't want to manage yet another group. :) )

Trying to figure that out (and I figured he'd lose access here. SO RONERY)

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Re: Night Three: Minus One Human, Minus One Monster

Postby dferrantino » 08 Dec 2016, 19:46:09

#Vote for: Illusion dferrantino

#Vote for: Maul rekard > RaveBomb


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