Day 6: The Woods

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Day 6: The Woods

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 12 Jan 2017, 22:58:43

It was time to get serious. If they couldn't find the ones responsible for all these strange deaths, they could at least defend themselves. Every able-bodied person headed to the blacksmith to see if he could forge them some weapons.

Knives were the weapon of choice - they were less expensive, and they didn't have to be reloaded.

It didn't take long for the townsfolk to start itching to try out their new toys. But who should they practice them on?
The discussion turned into a heated debate. General consensus eventually landed on rekard.

The sunlight glinted off their blades as the town fell upon him. When they finally separated, it was just in time to see rekard's body vanish right before their eyes. Not sure what to think, everyone went home.

That night, just as the town was falling asleep, they heard a woman screaming.

"My husband! My husband! He's dead!"

A few people went to investigate. They followed the sobbing woman into her home. dferrantino lay dead in his bed, smothered to death by a fluffy heart-shaped pillow.

rekard - lynched - not a wolf
Ruth Putnam - Night action - "Possess" - 3x per game, you may choose a target. You choose who that person votes for the next day. This will be reflected in the final vote tally.


dferrantino - mauled - human
John Proctor - You are a Puritan, but you've had enough of the insanity in this town. There's talk of your wife being accused of witchcraft, and you're willing to do whatever it takes to show the town what's really going on with these crazy girls. You are a suicide vigilante. One use per game (obviously), declared publicly. You will immediately die as well, so make good use of this. Also, your wife then becomes vulnerable.


FINAL TALLY:

rekard - 4 - Rictus, Admetus, DastardlyOldMan, JRSthethird
DOM - 2 - Hellheart, dferrantino
Rictus - rekard


Day 6 ends at 9pm PST.


The GM says this:


You are at *potential* lynch or lose.
Clearly, there is more going on here than just wolves.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 00:27:14

I think we only lose yesterday if we didn't lynch a wolf and dferrantino suicides to kill a human. 4 players, 2 wolves, parity.

5 players, lynch-or-lose. Wolves are almost certainly the danger here. I mean, props to JRS if he's dicking around as the sole remaining wolf, but this is a clear lynch-or-lose statement and there wasn't one yesterday.

rekard's power almost certainly was the source of Rictus' changed vote on Day 2. This is particularly true given how hard rekard seemed to be pushing Rictus.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 00:49:11

I'm human, and I can prove it. GA, please protect me tonight.

Backwards Mason code from Day 1. Pattern is the first letter of the nth word of the nth sentence after each quote:

Hellheart wrote:
rekard wrote:The name of this game reminded me of the supreme Salem Saberhagen from Sabrina the Teenage Witch.

Okay, fess up, who invited this guy? He's not even wearing proper clothing - he's wearing a goddamned costume!
Admetus wrote:Hah, is this really going to be a thing?

I'm not at all surprised. Wait..."Thing" means "witch nipples," right?
7-Zark-7 wrote:Homie don't play that. Plus, if you count the family it's more of a seven-way, but I'm changing the subject.

Nobody else is with you, man. It's all in your head.
rekard wrote:Let's burn some
#Vote for: Ryvvn


They say witches smell like kitchen when burned. And he stinks of chicken.

Remarkably, this post is free of anti-Puritan drivel, although now it's full of...kitchen smell? Also,
#Vote for: Ryvvn
is now in the lead.
7-Zark-7 wrote:Been too long since I've been able to vote for
#Vote for: Hellheart


More in a bit,

7z7

Excuse me? How forgetful are you? End of day voting tends to stick in my head, at least when it's directed at me, and you hit me with one in the last game.


I want to apologize to Zark for seeming harsh on that last one. It was the most natural way I could think of to fit in the last 3 letters. Your forgetting honestly didn't bother me at all.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 01:20:26

[+] Day 1
Ryvvn - 3 - Rictus, rekard, stdio, Hellheart
Admetus - 2 - Ryvvn, dferrantino, DOM
Hellheart - 2 - CAD, Zark
sphenodont - 2 - Ryvvn, stdio
dferrantino - 1 - Admetus, Zark
Zark - 1 - JRSthethird, Hellheart
Rictus - 1 - Gungnir
CAD - 1 - Blindsniper
[05:33] Ryvvn for Admetus ( 1 )
[15:02] Admetus for dferrantino ( 1 )
[19:26] JRSthethird for Zark ( 1 )
[25:59] Zark for dferrantino ( 2 )
[35:55] Rictus for Ryvvn ( 1 )
[36:00] dferrantino for Admetus ( 2 )
[37:00] Hellheart for Zark ( 2 )
[41:34] DOM for Admetus ( 3 )
[41:53] CAD for Hellheart ( 1 )
[41:58] Blindsniper for CAD ( 1 )
[43:03] rekard for Ryvvn ( 2 )
[43:37] Gungnir for Rictus ( 1 )
[43:49] stdio for Ryvvn ( 3 )
[44:15] Zark for Hellheart ( 2 ) ----------------> dferrantino ( 1 )
[45:53] Hellheart for Ryvvn ( 4 ) ----------------> Zark ( 1 )
[48:34] Ryvvn for sphenodont ( 1 ) ----------------> Admetus ( 2 )
[48:58] stdio for sphenodont ( 2 ) ----------------> Ryvvn ( 3 )

[+] Day 2
sphenodont - 4 - Penalty, DOM, Rictus, Hellheart, Zark
stdio - 4 - CAD, Admetus, sphenodont, JRSthethird, Hellheart
Blindsniper - 2 - JRSthethird, dferrantino, Hellheart
Zark - 1 - rekard, Hellheart
Hellheart - 1 - stdio
dferrantino - 1 - Blindsniper
Rictus - 0 - sphenodont
Vote Manipulation:
stdio vote nullified ---> Hellheart ( 0 ) ---> Source: stdio
Rictus vote moved ---> sphenodont ( 3 ) ---> stdio ( 5 ) ---> Source: rekard
[00:01] Penalty for sphenodont ( 1 )
[09:26] DOM for sphenodont ( 2 )
[12:58] JRSthethird for Blindsniper ( 1 )
[13:17] rekard for Zark ( 1 )
[13:25] Rictus for sphenodont ( 3 )
[14:29] sphenodont for Rictus ( 1 )
[14:59] Hellheart for Zark ( 2 )
[16:15] CAD for stdio ( 1 )
[16:21] Admetus for stdio ( 2 )
[19:28] dferrantino for Blindsniper ( 2 )
[19:46] Blindsniper for dferrantino ( 1 )
[20:16] Hellheart for sphenodont ( 4 ) ----------------> Zark ( 1 )
[20:51] sphenodont for stdio ( 3 ) ----------------> Rictus ( 0 )
[20:59] JRSthethird for stdio ( 4 ) ----------------> Blindsniper ( 1 )
[21:21] Hellheart for stdio ( 5 ) ----------------> sphenodont ( 3 )
[21:30] Zark for sphenodont ( 4 )
[22:55] stdio for Hellheart ( 1 )
[23:00] Hellheart for Blindsniper ( 2 ) ----------------> stdio ( 4 )

[+] Day 3
JRSthethird - 7 - dferrantino, Rictus, rekard, Blindsniper, Zark, Admetus, Hellheart
Hellheart - 1 - DOM, JRSthethird
Rictus - 1 - JRSthethird
rekard - 1 - sphenodont
Vote Manipulation:
DOM +1 Vote ---> Source: sphenodont
[09:02] DOM for Hellheart ( 1 )
[09:30] JRSthethird for Hellheart ( 2 )
[12:30] dferrantino for JRSthethird ( 1 )
[13:54] Rictus for JRSthethird ( 2 )
[17:05] sphenodont for rekard ( 1 )
[18:58] rekard for JRSthethird ( 3 )
[19:19] Blindsniper for JRSthethird ( 4 )
[19:53] Zark for JRSthethird ( 5 )
[20:25] Admetus for JRSthethird ( 6 )
[20:47] Hellheart for JRSthethird ( 7 )
[20:51] JRSthethird for Rictus ( 1 ) ----------------> Hellheart ( 1 )

[+] Day 4
sphenodont - 3 - Hellheart, Admetus, dferrantino, Hellheart
DOM - 3 - dferrantino, Rictus, sphenodont, Blindsniper, Hellheart
Rictus - 1 - DOM, JRSthethird
rekard - 1 - JRSthethird
Blindsniper - 1 - rekard
[10:04] dferrantino for DOM ( 1 )
[14:13] DOM for Rictus ( 1 )
[15:19] Hellheart for sphenodont ( 1 )
[16:28] Rictus for DOM ( 2 )
[19:22] JRSthethird for Rictus ( 2 )
[19:37] sphenodont for DOM ( 3 )
[20:25] Blindsniper for DOM ( 4 )
[22:34] Admetus for sphenodont ( 2 )
[22:44] dferrantino for sphenodont ( 3 ) ----------------> DOM ( 3 )
[22:55] JRSthethird for rekard ( 1 ) ----------------> Rictus ( 1 )
[23:17] rekard for Blindsniper ( 1 )
[23:34] Hellheart for DOM ( 4 ) ----------------> sphenodont ( 2 )
[23:36] Hellheart for sphenodont ( 3 ) ----------------> DOM ( 3 )

[+] Day 5
rekard - 4 - Rictus, Admetus, DOM, Hellheart, JRSthethird
DOM - 2 - Hellheart, dferrantino, Hellheart
Rictus - 1 - rekard
JRSthethird - 0 - JRSthethird
Admetus - 0 - DOM
[15:40] DOM for Admetus ( 1 )
[16:25] Hellheart for DOM ( 1 )
[18:45] Rictus for rekard ( 1 )
[19:19] JRSthethird for JRSthethird ( 1 )
[21:32] Admetus for rekard ( 2 )
[21:56] dferrantino for DOM ( 2 )
[21:58] rekard for Rictus ( 1 )
[22:06] DOM for rekard ( 3 ) ----------------> Admetus ( 0 )
[22:08] Hellheart for rekard ( 4 ) ----------------> DOM ( 1 )
[22:12] JRSthethird for rekard ( 5 ) ----------------> JRSthethird ( 0 )
[22:12] Hellheart for DOM ( 2 ) ----------------> rekard ( 4 )

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 01:34:56

I am only voting for
#Vote for: DastardlyOldMan
today. It would take one hell of an argument to sway me from that vote.

The additional reasoning here is super simple, and I'm an idiot for not arguing this before: if DOM is human, why didn't JRSthethird snipe the vote on Day 4? Admetus and I are BOTH on sphenodont, so we can do jack shit about that vote. Not making that vote means that MAYBE human-DOM dies the next day, but who the hell knows? Why not just kill him then and there?

I got the strong impression that the wolves felt defeated at the end of Day 4. Like the game was already over. JRS didn't even really seem to be trying with that off-wagon vote near the end.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 01:54:11

Rictus' vote for DOM on Day 4 felt very strongly human. He's backed off some since, but I think he's looking out for himself rather than being skeezy. That strikes me as a special or a neutral. Realistically, which one is at this point irrelevant since we have to lynch two consecutive wolves. Placing the 3rd vote on sphenodont on Day 2 is the lonest of lone wolf plays for virtually no real credibility, and honestly if he did that and I were a fellow wolf I'd be royally pissed. When he follows it up with an early tying vote on JRS, I'd feel like mauling him out of spite.

Admetus' analysis has felt very human to me. His vote for sphenodont on Day 4 is laughably bad if he's a wolf, as he basically sinks DOM by voting anywhere other than sphenodont. His arguments regarding DOM and rekard are pretty much what I'd expect from him. Also, wolf-Admetus getting sticky on rekard yesterday gets him a lot more backlash than if he just switches to DOM. Then I'm on the line instead for "convincing" him to swap to DOM.

DOM's analysis has felt off. He's had skeezy posts. He's promised to do work that he never followed up on. He's had odd or poor votes. His vote on Admetus on Day 5 seems to be a direct appeal to Admetus, while a human would have pushed Rictus or rekard because he wants to kill the damn wolf. The maul on Day 1 (Gungnir as a relatively unknown singleton) is something DOM is particularly fond of, and the later maul choices feel like an experienced wolf trying to avoid the GA and protect the analysis-focused wolf on the team.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Rictus » 13 Jan 2017, 03:57:45

explain it to me like I'm five, please. I have a lot of questions that don't make sense.

Do you think DOM is a wolf, or a other? What the hell is going on? :flail:
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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Rictus » 13 Jan 2017, 04:54:22

So I want to go back and read The Fairy Catmother's posts, but my current hunch is that there are girls-pretending-to-be-witches and no-shit-I-wear-black-witches.

I have no idea on how those two groups interact.
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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 05:04:58

I believe that DOM is a wolf. It's the most plausible scenario and I'm reading him as the least human out of all of us.

It literally does not matter who "the other" is, at least to the humans, unless the GA prevents a maul tonight (allowing for a final 3 after both wolves die). We have to lynch two wolves in a row. Perhaps we get super lucky and the wolves maul the remaining neutral.

E: Assuming there is one. It's a reasonable assumption given that rekard didn't get the serial killer power I'd expect a lone neutral to have.
Last edited by Hellheart on 13 Jan 2017, 05:11:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Jan 2017, 05:05:52

I'd like to know what my "skeezy" posts that you keep referring to are. I don't typically defend every one of my posts, so when Rictus royally misinterpreted a post on, like, Day 3, I ignored him (for the record, there's a huge difference in saying "A & B are wolfy" while voting on C, and saying "A & B feel legit" while voting on C). Maybe there's something else where I'm being skeezy?

I'd also love to see anything where I promised something?

Combinations? Pointless once the wolf is outed, I'm no longer looking for potential combinations, I'm looking for sphenodont's allies. Was not promised, although I suggested that if I had been lynched (in which case, the wolf wouldn't have been outed), then looking at combinations might have been helpful. Maul analysis? I did do it, it didn't turn up anything interesting (if 7z7 was alive, I might've said that his maul-choices for info-obfuscation are a strong point of his, and that the wolves are doing that as well). I guess I could've posted that it didn't turn up anything interesting, but since I didn't promise it to anyone (I *did* mention that I'd like to do it, and I did - I wasn't aware that was a binding commitment).

I mean, far be it for me to believe that HH might fixate on an incorrect conclusion and then interpret EVERYTHING to support that conclusion. Hellheart would never, ever do anything like that over and over again. And again. Never. [/s] But shit man: you. are. stretching. Stop reading Breitbart for your inspiration.

So, I know that there's at least one wolf in HH, Rictus, and Admetus. For everyone that wants to vote on me, I'd love to hear your reasoning on the other two players.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 06:59:50

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Maybe there's something else where I'm being skeezy?
You've thrown around a lot of names as suspicious. Then you vote for somebody else with less or no justification. The only players that you've said might have done something human are me and Admetus. But you know, it's funny that you then soft-push me and vote for Admetus on the following day.

I *did* mention that I'd like to do it, and I did - I wasn't aware that was a binding commitment).
You did the work, so why not share it? Even if it's inconclusive, maybe you save someone else that work. Maybe it makes sense later.

Interesting fact, though: it's a lot harder to do serious analysis in the main thread if you're putting a lot of work into the wolf forum. Just saying.

So, I know that there's at least one wolf in HH, Rictus, and Admetus.
Only one wolf other than JRS. JRS is the alpha. Sphenodont called him the Alpha and JRS did not deny it. If your list has 2 wolves, we already lose via parity (5 players, 3 wolves).

For everyone that wants to vote on me, I'd love to hear your reasoning on the other two players.
Why? Do your own damn work. I'd like to see any plausible scenario where I'm a wolf. That would be amusing as hell. Maybe we'll see a vote with a genuine justification behind it!

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Jrsthethird » 13 Jan 2017, 09:12:28

Hellheart, care to explain why your code "proves" you're human? Are you a seer with a night 0 action or something?

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 09:22:57

It's part of the role PM. Both ways. It's a neat twist on the normal lovers setup. Dferrantino hard-defended me on Day 3. We've voted together for the last few days. There was a possibility that he could be a witch, but given that his role was male...it would have been odd. So I assumed he was human.

There's no way I could be a witch. That's an alpha under two layers of immunity. That's ludicrously unbalanced.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Jrsthethird » 13 Jan 2017, 09:32:40

Didn't make the connection with his role reveal. Thanks.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Jrsthethird » 13 Jan 2017, 09:44:46

I've been feeling pretty under the weather the past few days. I crashed in my bed last night when I got home from work, but I set two alarms to make sure I could get in by midnight and snipe rekard. Then I fed the cats, took a swig of NyQuil, and passed out. Now I feel great. It's just a shame we don't have any eggs left in the house.

I mean, I have some birthday cake leftover (I turned 30 a couple weeks ago), but it's still frozen and I'm saving it for my dad. Is frozen cake even good anymore? I guess we''ll find out.

Oh I think I have some tiramisu or something too. Or maybe the cat ate it. Who knows?

#Vote for: Hellheart
Last edited by Jrsthethird on 13 Jan 2017, 13:08:55, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Rictus » 13 Jan 2017, 11:52:07

So I think the correct vote here is for
#Vote for: Jrsthethird
.


There are five players left:
Jrsthethird - Alpha wolf / witch / girl?
Admetus
Rictus
Hellheart
DastardlyOldMan

If there were two wolves left, we would *definitely* be at lynch-or-lose. If we lynch a human that means 2 wolves are at parity before the maul comes into play. No need for a GA to protect anyone, because we've already lost.

So there's only one wolf left - Jrsthethird.


Anyone want to role reveal or provide insight to the other faction and their goal?
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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 12:02:53

If there's one wolf left, then we don't need to lynch the wolf. JRS can't get parity today if he's alone. There's either another kill power out there, or there are 2 neutrals that are threatening loss via parity.

I'm human. The GA is human. That would leave 2 players, both of which could be neutrals if there's just one wolf. Either way, we have to lynch outside of JRS or risk losing to a non-human faction.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Admetus » 13 Jan 2017, 13:00:32

I'm trying not to skip out on my Friday night commitment because I'm on the hook for refreshments. That means I'll be limited availability later and have to get this done much earlier than the last few days. Couple things with my vote.

rekard's power almost certainly was the source of Rictus' changed vote on Day 2. This is particularly true given how hard rekard seemed to be pushing Rictus.

-edit quote not vote-
I'm with you on most of your posts, but this one seems hard to understand. I mean, the rekard power could have made that vote move, but if he was human and knew that Rictus didn't use a vote shifting power, why did he claim it made Rictus a wolf?

Rictus wrote:If there were two wolves left, we would *definitely* be at lynch-or-lose. If we lynch a human that means 2 wolves are at parity before the maul comes into play. No need for a GA to protect anyone, because we've already lost.

The part about not being "definitely" lynch or lose means one of two possibilities. The other faction which was made explicit has a way to disrupt the loss with night powers if we miss. Either that, or the wolves are at 1 remaining, but if we lynch JRS to finish the wolves, we lose to parity with the secret faction.

That means that either way, Jrsthethird is the wrong lynch. I agree with Hellheart's point, it seems clear that Jrsthethird should have voted for DOM if he was human. He was clearly around at the time. He also clearly should have voted for sphenodont if he was on the neutral team.

#Vote for: DastardlyOldMan

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 13:11:42

Admetus wrote:
rekard's power almost certainly was the source of Rictus' changed vote on Day 2. This is particularly true given how hard rekard seemed to be pushing Rictus.

I'm with you on most of your posts, but this one seems hard to understand. I mean, the rekard power could have made that vote move, but if he was human and knew that Rictus didn't use a vote shifting power, why did he claim it made Rictus a wolf?

rekard wasn't human. Rekard was a neutral, thus the "not-a-wolf" reveal and the ominous addition to the potential lynch-or-lose message.

The primary issue with claiming wolf-Rictus is the 3rd vote placed on sphenodont on Day 2. The only effective arguments I could see for wolf-Rictus were: "he was lone-wolfing it from the start by pushing the other wolves" OR "the wolves knew that his vote would be shifted to stdio, so he had no issue voting for sphenodont."

rekard made both arguments. He had to target Rictus the night before regardless, so he didn't know that Rictus would place the 3rd vote on sphenodont. I'm sure that was a happy coincidence for him. It feels like he made that vote switch so he could push Rictus later on.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Jan 2017, 13:13:14

Hellheart wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:Maybe there's something else where I'm being skeezy?
You've thrown around a lot of names as suspicious. Then you vote for somebody else with less or no justification. The only players that you've said might have done something human are me and Admetus. But you know, it's funny that you then soft-push me and vote for Admetus on the following day.

Your'e right - it's my new wolf tactic to only leave people that I've already voted for alive until the end game, that way they're good and defensive.
I *did* mention that I'd like to do it, and I did - I wasn't aware that was a binding commitment).
You did the work, so why not share it? Even if it's inconclusive, maybe you save someone else that work. Maybe it makes sense later.
You and I have significantly different opinions on signal-to-noise ratio, and the amount of work to translate my textpad notes into a viable forum post wasn't worth the effort. And they were still not promises, so saying that I'm wolfy because I broke my sacred vow to bring you enlightenment is pushing it. You're definitely reaching there.

Interesting fact, though: it's a lot harder to do serious analysis in the main thread if you're putting a lot of work into the wolf forum. Just saying.
There's the fixation again. You've already decided, and now you're slanting things toward the outcome that you've decided. Objectivity for the win. This didn't contribute in any way to your argument.

So, I know that there's at least one wolf in HH, Rictus, and Admetus.
Only one wolf other than JRS. JRS is the alpha. Sphenodont called him the Alpha and JRS did not deny it. If your list has 2 wolves, we already lose via parity (5 players, 3 wolves).

This seems like it would be a fairly safe assumption, doesn't it?

For everyone that wants to vote on me, I'd love to hear your reasoning on the other two players.
Why? Do your own damn work. I'd like to see any plausible scenario where I'm a wolf. That would be amusing as hell. Maybe we'll see a vote with a genuine justification behind it!

Of course - apologies for asking people to share what information they had. Since you've already decided that I'm a wolf, do you mind if the rest of us participate normally?

Look.

EVERYONE has plausible scenarios where they're a wolf, and EVERYONE has a valid argument for why they're not. The fact is that you're choosing to believe or interpret some of those in different ways. This is why I'm flailing with my votes.

Hellheart: HORRIBLE vote pattern at the end of Day 2. Every time I read it, I frikkin' itch all over. Cleared by the seer, in what I believe is a pretty definitive manner. Last vote on JRS, which was a foregone conclusion at the time he made it. Several times left his own name colored red on the vote charts (probably because of strikeout defaults, but *sometimes* they're changed).
There was a possibility that he could be a witch, but given that his role was male...it would have been odd. So I assumed he was human.

Outlined his thought process on why he assumed dfer was human, expects us to make that same assumption in reverse and considers that a claim (I think?). (also, in dead seriousness: fuck you for metagaming / attempting to metagame).

Rictus: Probably my best human read without resorting to metagame. Helped push on sphenodont on Day 2. Almost-too-early vote on JRS, and I really believe there's a wolf somewhere on JRS (well, of course I really do now, but at the time that I saw it, I also believed that). Voted off of sphenodont on Day 4. Human-y tone reads.

Admetus: Voted off of sphenodont on Day 2, extremely late to the JRS train, but early vote on sphenodont on Day 4. No real tone reads.

So, my checklist looks like:
Did something interesting Day 1: not really any of you
On the JRS train (all three of you).
On sphenodont Day 2 (Rictus only)
On sphenodont Day 4 (All But Rictus).
On rekard Day 5 (from a wolf perspective, rekard would've been human, so this doesn't say much): All but HH.

Anyhow, I wish it was as cut-and-dry as Hellheart's horse-blinders.

Hm. I've been working on this post off and on for like, 7 hours now.
I'll go with
#Vote for: Admetus
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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Admetus » 13 Jan 2017, 13:13:44

rekard wasn't human. Rekard was a neutral, thus the "not-a-wolf" reveal and the ominous addition to the potential lynch-or-lose message.

Ohhhhh... it says "rekard - not a wolf" instead of "rekard - human". Subtle.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Admetus » 13 Jan 2017, 13:18:09

DOM wrote:Outlined his thought process on why he assumed dfer was human, expects us to make that same assumption in reverse and considers that a claim (I think?). (also, in dead seriousness: fuck you for metagaming / attempting to metagame).

So, that's not now I read Hellheart's claim. He's claiming that he's the wife of dferrantino, mentioned in dferrantino's role reveal. He placed the secret message to give extra weight to his claim as opposed to simply saying "I claim I'm the wife of dferrantino" and leaving it at that.

-edit- why do i keep hitting the vote button instead of the quote button? second time today.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Jan 2017, 13:36:28

Right, but he's calling that a human claim. And immediately after saying "I can prove I'm human because I was dfer's wife" he goes on to discuss his train of thought on how dferrantino probably wasn't a wolf.

I make no argument that HH is not dfer's wife. I find it highly amusing that he applied a certain logic to reasoning out how dfer was probably not a wolf, and is ignoring that exact same certain logic in making his claim to humanity.

A: I am human because I am dfer's wife.
B: Here's why I believed that dfer was human.
which implies C: I realized on Day 1 that the husband and wife are not necessarily both human.
which directly contradicts A.

He probably is human - I mean, the conviction behind his metagaming is clear. But it's a highly-ironic example of how HH's logic train just ain't going to the finish line.

Never mind, now I'm seeing the next piece in that logic.
A: I am human because to have a wolf protected by another player who then in turn protects the alpha would be ridiculous. I will admit that this is a much safer assumption and not quite as faulty of a logic tree. It still amuses me.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Jrsthethird » 13 Jan 2017, 13:38:51

Admetus wrote:I'm trying not to skip out on my Friday night commitment because I'm on the hook for refreshments.


Curse you! You know how we felt about rekard's "commitments" in this game!

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 13:46:26

I made that message primarily because I'd look like the alpha if I were lynched. That's all kinds of bad news for me without some proof that I'm human.

DOM...you're right. My reads are based on instinct. I trust my instinct because it's basically my subconscious processing a ton of information and forwarding a decision to me, and it's right every time given enough information. The issue is, I don't know WHY I have that instinctive read. So I have to try to figure out where that read came from. This happens with every complex decision or observation in my life.

So yes, I am interpreting things to support my conclusion because I don't know where the conclusion came from in the first place. I'm using logic to follow what my subconscious did as best I can. I know my instinct is sometimes wrong because I don't have all the info. I try to make sense of it to see if there's a glaring hole somewhere.

A good example is my vote switch to rekard yesterday after he said he though sphenodont could be the Seer. That really triggered me. I thought it was because Blindsniper was mauled the prior day, and felt like an idiot. But I was right to feel triggered because Seer-sphenodont claims when he gets to 3 votes. That reasoning was either lazy or bullshit and it pissed me off.

But I didn't know why. I just knew it did.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 14:03:18

Rictus made a point that's been floating around in my mind. What if there's only one wolf left?

It gets more complicated than that. What if the neutral faction has a non-parity win condition that makes them leave the game? (AKA "Pulling a Seldon.") What if there are multiple neutral factions? Would they oppose each other? Do they have information that we wouldn't have?

It's worth running a bunch of potential scenarios to see what I might dig up. I don't want to be blindsided by something I could've found out if I thought a bit more about it.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Admetus » 13 Jan 2017, 14:46:46

I think that reduces to the same thing, but do go ahead and tell me if I'm wrong. If there's only one wolf, the lynch or lose still applies to lynching secret faction to stop them. If there's only one wolf, we still know who it is, and any secret faction parity would definitely trigger if he was lynched, so that seems like the more dangerous gamble.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 15:40:56

Oh, DOM, my vote-switching on Day 2 was for funsies. I'll be doing that more often because it amuses me. Hell, I'll be amusing myself throughout this post, so it'll be less dry. JRS pissed me off by pushing me, so I got serious earlier than normal.

So, *potential* lynch-or-lose requires conditionality. So it's possible for us to lynch a non-wolf/non-neutral and still survive -if- X is true, for the given value of "waitaminute, that X could be ANYTHING!" And that's the problem. We don't know what the hell the last wolf role (if there is one) or the one/two unknown human/neutral roles can do. They can do SOMETHING because Everybody's Special. That really screws with this theorycrafting.

I can always be a neutral. It's easier to assume that there's only one neutral remaining, if that, simply because it's statistically difficult to have all 3 neutrals and all 2 (!) wolves in the final 7. If there's two neutrals left, it's overwhelmingly likely to be DOM-Admetus given the votes over the past 2 days.

So let's look at the possible scenarios and work from there. Maybe there's a common lynch target for all of them. I'm going to TLDR each of these because everything in the spoiler tags is going to be steam-of-consciousness blather:

3 Wolves: The wolves vote as a bloc to lynch the GA and maul me. Then they fight among themselves. I wasted a bunch of time and effort today, go me!

2 Wolves: DOM > Rictus > Admetus. Admetus would have passed up a virtually guaranteed wolf win if parity applies. If parity doesn't apply, then how the hell are we at lynch-or-lose? Hellheart == Rictus for neutral candidates.
[+] 2 Wolves
I still think DOM is likely the last wolf. But it's possible that JRS should have sniped DOM two days ago, but didn't. Maybe he passed out drunk. Or masturbating. Or his mom grounded him (for masturbating). It really doesn't matter which, as long as it was sad and humiliating. DOM can't be a lock wolf anyway because we're looking for witches, not warlocks.

Rictus would have to be lone-wolfing it from the start. I think he'd be playing today smarter if he was playing that smart a few days ago, personally, but it's theoretically possible. It's hard to argue with that vote record; his vote for DOM on Day 4 looks pretty bad, but he was a genuine lynch risk and he dealt with it in true human-Rictus fashion.

Admetus has fooled me before with his analysis. It's starting to feel like something's...plasticy about the way he's talking. But his vote for sphenodont on Day 4 is hard to ignore. If DOM gets lynched and flips human, Rictus is toast. That's a guaranteed wolf win.

If it's not DOM, it's Rictus. It's hard for me to stomach that.

2 wolves would allow for one or two neutrals. That would be between me and Rictus, as same-team Admetus moves to DOM yesterday (he was around at EOD) and opposite-team Admetus should have been targeted by rekard.

1 Wolf, 1 Neutral Team: This scenario is really weird because DOM > Hellheart. Which is objectively true, but you're changing the subject. Admetus and Rictus can't be neutral unless they know there's only 1 wolf, and even then it's sketchy.
[+] 1 wolf, 1 neutral team
JRS gets parity if we lose 3 people. He'd win if somebody uses a killing power. He'd also win if we lynch a human, the maul goes off, AND the Neutral leaves the game after satisfying a victory condition.

Rictus isn't pushed constantly by rekard if they're teammates. It's technically plausible, though - it IS rekard we're talking about. Same-team Admetus moves to DOM yesterday (he was around at EOD), and I push harder for a DOM switch if I'm a neutral. I jam the shit out of that DOM switch while screaming "BLOODY MURDER." That probably doesn't get Admetus to switch since it's not a logical argument, but that's okay. I like screaming.

If the neutrals know there's only one wolf, they'll know that DOM will flip human. In this situation, lynching rekard makes more sense...kind of. Similar to the JRS snipe, it's better for Admetus to lynch DOM and then get Rictus/Hellheart lynched. It's better for Rictus to lynch DOM because a switch is going to look super wolfy to the humans.

1 Wolf, 2 Neutral Teams: Rictus == Admetus > DOM if identities are known and opposed. Otherwise, let's just lynch DOM because REASONS!
[+] 1 Wolf, 2 Neutrals
So it's a question of whether the neutrals knew each other's identities, and what their goals are. rekard was pushing the shit out of Rictus with the help of his power, and Admetus sat on rekard even when JRS sniped rekard. DOM is still in here, but rekard pulls his little stunt on DOM in this case. If identities are unknown, each neutral team is simply trying to survive. That's too much of a tossup to guess.


0 wolves, 1 Neutral Team: Oh God they converted the Alpha. Shit, what do we do now!?

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 15:46:17

Yeah, gotta stick with DOM here. Congrats to Rictus if he lone wolfed this shit; your teammates should have mauled you a couple of days ago.

E: Bleh, me and counting. Would be all 3 neutrals and 2 wolves in the final 9, not 7, which is somewhat more plausible. But only 2 wolves, and more neutrals than wolves...that's a hell of a game.

Speaking of counting, there's several players that have consistently claimed that, eg, 4 wolves with 9 players left is not lynch-or-lose. Under normal parity rules, it's at least conditional lynch-or-lose (no lynch + failed maul keeps us at 9). Am I wrong about this? Am I wrong in my thinking that the humans would assume traditional parity until they have a reason to believe otherwise?

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Rictus » 13 Jan 2017, 17:25:54

Ok so I'm convinced that JRS is the wrong lynch.

I am also 95% certain that he is the only remaining wolf. Otherwise we would be at lynch-or-lose.

I am 100% certain that Hellheart and DOM are on opposite teams. One of you is a neutral.

I am human.

If I follow that logic train, that means that Admetus must be a neutral allied with Hellheart or DOM.

(But a 3 neutral 2 wolf setup with 9 humans seems unbalanced.)


Hellheart please let me know why you are a human who was being protected. What is your special situation? I accept that you are dferrantinos wife, but you could be a neutral... dferrantino specifically says you are "not a witch". He doesn't say "human".


Edit: just wanted to say that I am pulling key bits of info from all 3 of you posting today. Some good stuff.
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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Jan 2017, 17:43:27

Totally mellowed after a much-needed massage, so gonna be just a bit loopy here. Will need to digest HH full post, but regarding parity:

The conditional when we had 7 left could have been based on dfer going blammo (unless there was some kind of reverse thing where you both died simultaneously - it doesn't sound like that's true), or based on some kind of secondary night-kill, that we've seen no evidence of. Otherwise, the only way a move from 7 -> 5 gives parity is to a group of 3. If there was a group of 3 yesterday and lynching rekard as neutral didn't hit the lose-scenario, then there must be a group of 2 today, and those 2 can't be wolves. But there's also wolves. So that means there would have to be 2 neutrals, 1 wolf, and 2 humans or 2 neutrals, 2 wolves, and 1 human.

We don't *know* that all of the potential roles are in the game, but it feels really weird to me that we wouldn't have any kind of GA, but it also feels really weird that we would only have 2 wolves.

Hesitant as I am to even bring this up, because it just means you should continue to vote for me, but what about conversion? Is it possible that the neutrals had some kind of conversion power, and that yesterday they were set to increase to a group of 3, but by killing rekard, we kept that down to 2? Day 5 is odd for any kind of cadence that leads to 3 (every other day would lead to 4 people, every third day wouldn't hit until today), but that might explain the weirdness of the lol timing. It would also $#&* with any analysis except weird-behavior-changes. Conversion + wolves *has* been done before in like, the single-digit games, I think. That would also explain a lower wolf count, if one of the wolves got converted - but then I'd kind of expect the converts to know who the last wolf is and point to him a bit more convincingly, but maybe they want us hunting wolves.

This post brought to you by DOM's stream of consciousness. I'm going off to drool in a corner for a bit, will check back in when I'm ready to rejoin the world of cognizant thought.

e: Missed Rictus' last post.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Jan 2017, 17:53:36

Dear God. Don't go to the wiki discussions to see if there's any theming behind this.
[+] Stuff about Salem
It is obvious that Countess Marburg is more powerful than Mary seeing that she has already demonstrated some of her perversion, (incest with own son, murder of her own father and lesbianism tendcies not to mention the joy she derives from murdering not only the ignorant but the weak and innocent another is grace who is so possess by demons she lives among dead corpses and eat dead rotting human flesh. Grace death has only made her more demonic as the demons not wanting to let her body to escape from them through death because Grace has such a love and passion for the morbid. I believe that before being rape by the devil she was a chronic masturbater that enjoy sticking unnatural things into herself. She is obviously sick sick sick and wild. She has powers but are not able to contro; them either, they actually control her. Ann is another pervert witch that delusion herself as to not being posses while all the time practices perversion s and than forget about them as though what she does is "natural" she is as perverted as grace


I thought I was a puddle of goo right now.

e: Sorry, there could actually be spoilers in that mess about the show. Spoiling it; not important to the game discussion.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 18:11:24

Motherfucker. I just realized where you were coming from, Rictus.

*Potential* Lynch-or-Lose yesterday, with 7 people. We lynch a neutral and a human is mauled. If the wolves were the parity threat, we'd be at Lynch-or-Lose now for sure. Instead, we're at *Potential* Lynch-or-Lose...again. So the parity threat has to be the neutrals, because we lynched a neutral and we're still in the same position.

God, are you serious though? 2 wolves and 3 neutrals? Supposed witches and real witches? Conversion mechanic? It's annoying to think about with the threat of an alpha looming over everyone.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 18:14:51

If there were 3 wolves and one was converted, they'll off sphenodont and then we're flailing around looking for the last Goddamn wolf. The only way to find out for sure would be to lynch JRS, which is outright not an option.

When Rictus comes up with something odd like this and it makes sense, he's always been right in the past. I remember the ragnarok game in particular. I need to think about this for a bit.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 18:51:05

What about a conversion mechanic that kicks in late, or if a particular player dies?

Conversion two consecutive days isn't fair. 7 people, suicide Vig lowers to 5...we'd be at lynch-or-lose if the parity threat had 2 people. We lynch a neutral and lose the suicide Vig. We're STILL at *potential* lynch or lose.

5 people again. This would have been lynch-or-lose before; now it's potential lynch-or-lose again. Neutral is the threat for sure. But here's the kicker: it's a direct parity threat if dferrantino's ability created the potential for a loss.

Meaning there were 2 Neutrals before, and now there's one neutral. Otherwise, the direct parity threat would be there and we'd be at genuine lynch-or-lose.

...

The conditional is yet another kill power, or conversion. Her ability was "Possession," and to a large degree conversion makes sense in this setting.

If the general consensus is that the neutral is the current parity threat, we work together with JRS here. If he mauls the conversion target, we gain another day even if we miss the neutral.

E: I assume the alpha is immune to conversion. It's possible that the GA also protects against conversion.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 19:03:34

Rictus wrote:Hellheart please let me know why you are a human who was being protected. What is your special situation? I accept that you are dferrantinos wife, but you could be a neutral... dferrantino specifically says you are "not a witch". He doesn't say "human".

There has to be only one neutral and one wolf left, otherwise we'd be at lynch-or-lose. I definitely did not start out as a wolf. Those are the two assumptions I'm working from here. I'll discard everything else.

So the real question is: did we start with 2 neutrals, or did we start with 1 and another got converted? If we started with 1 neutral, then everyone but rekard starts out as a human or a wolf.

There's a very important linked question, one we've been dancing around: did we start with 2 wolves, or did we start with 3?

I think we started with 3 wolves. We now have 2 wolves. A wolf got converted. I didn't start as a wolf, ergo I am still human.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 19:29:54

Oh God this is going to be so haphazard:

If rekard gets to convert somebody the night after he dies, the other neutral has no issue at all killing him off.

The other argument is 2 neutrals: DOM and rekard. I think this scenario works regardless of whether DOM starts as a wolf.

I looked at Admetus' posts again and I think that "plasticy" feel comes simply because Admetus is agreeing with my logic more.

That'll happen from sheer volume alone, because Admetus has been putting in more work in the past few days. So have I. So have you.

I don't think JRS snipes rekard as a solo wolf just to fuck with us. I think he was afraid I'd switch back to DOM, just like I did with sphenodont. Which I did end up doing. I think he doesn't snipe the day before because they're both wolves.

But if DOM's a wolf, we're at lynch-or-lose. I'm going to assume the Alpha can't be converted because that's bullshit. So if a wolf is a neutral, I think it's DOM.

But...gah...why do I keep coming back to Admetus?

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 19:32:26

Rictus, does DOM's reaction post feel human to you?

E: Preliminary vote for
#Vote for: Admetus
. God help me.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Jan 2017, 20:06:05

Back. Reading.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Rictus » 13 Jan 2017, 20:19:10

So my own problem with reviewing the previous days: neutrals hunting wolves are just as human looking as normals hunting wolves.

1. There's only 1 wolf left.

2. Standard rules say that humans win when the wolves are dead.

Going to stay with
#Vote for: JRsthethird
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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Rictus » 13 Jan 2017, 20:23:53

I think that makes it:

Admetus: 2 : DOM, Hellheart
Jrs: 1 : rictus
DastardlyOldMan: 1 : Admetus
Hellheart: Jrs
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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Jan 2017, 20:24:29

HH, I'm not following all of your posts, walk me through this one:

"The conditional is yet another kill power, or conversion. Her ability was "Possession," and to a large degree conversion makes sense in this setting."

Let's say that rekard's final act was some kind of possession, and when we lynched rekard, he was, essentially, in possession - basically creating a conversion (FYI, the synopsis of the episodes that I read definitely pointed to a lot of possession, and then some necromancy(!), and a lot of other control/manipulation powers. Also, Lucy Lawless). That gives him another player, but that's not parity without a partner - that only gets you to a group of 2. So rekard still had to have another convert earlier.


I think that's what you're saying with that half of the post, just needed to write it out to follow it. Next one (not using quote tags, just quoting):
"There has to be only one neutral and one wolf left, otherwise we'd be at lynch-or-lose."

What's the path to parity for one wolf and one neutral tomorrow? Lynch human, maul human, they're both still at 1 of 3. Lynch human, maul human, *another* conversion? I don't think that's feasible. Let me try to write up the scenarios (next post, time short).

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 20:24:53

Did you get a human role PM, Rictus?

If there's a 3rd faction but standard human win conditions apply, then it should be explicitly stated in the PM. It has to be. Otherwise the humans try to kill off a 3rd faction they don't even need to bother with.

E: Also the SUPER OMINOUS WARNING makes exactly zero sense if all we have to do is kill the wolves.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 20:29:01

DastardlyOldMan wrote:What's the path to parity for one wolf and one neutral tomorrow? Lynch human, maul human, they're both still at 1 of 3. Lynch human, maul human, *another* conversion? I don't think that's feasible. Let me try to write up the scenarios (next post, time short).

There wasn't a conversion yesterday. There had to be 2 neutrals yesterday for us to be in parity danger with what we know. One is dead, that leaves one. And a conversion.

Lynch anyone but neutral + conversion is a win for the neutrals, even if there's only 1 of them right now. The wolves don't have that option. They can only kill. "More than just wolves" implies the conversion mechanic is not a wolf one. Also conversion wolves with an alpha veers well into "WTF" territory.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Admetus » 13 Jan 2017, 20:29:40

Back home.

Okay a few of you are going off the deep end here. First, if there's one wolf, that's not what the lynch or lose warning is about. Lynching the wolf is wrong in that case. Rictus, specifically.

Second, Hellheart, you seem pretty pinned on one wolf one secret faction. I was assuming one wolf two secret faction. What did I miss?

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 13 Jan 2017, 20:31:26

Hellheart wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:What's the path to parity for one wolf and one neutral tomorrow? Lynch human, maul human, they're both still at 1 of 3. Lynch human, maul human, *another* conversion? I don't think that's feasible. Let me try to write up the scenarios (next post, time short).

There wasn't a conversion yesterday. There had to be 2 neutrals yesterday for us to be in parity danger with what we know. One is dead, that leaves one. And a conversion.

Lynch anyone but neutral + conversion is a win for the neutrals, even if there's only 1 of them right now. The wolves don't have that option. They can only kill. "More than just wolves" implies the conversion mechanic is not a wolf one. Also conversion wolves with an alpha veers well into "WTF" territory.

How did 2 neutrals out of 7 become potential lynch-or-lose? Suicide vig?

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 20:33:14

Oh, and during my walk I realized how terrible it would be to convert me. I'm really, really good at getting myself lynched, to the point where I've made a final 3...never, I think?

If I start as a conversion mechanic neutral I am NOT attracting attention on Day 2. After I attract attention on Day 2, my value as a convert drops to a very large negative number.

DastardlyOldMan wrote:How did 2 neutrals out of 7 become potential lynch-or-lose? Suicide vig?

Suicide Vig hits a human to reduce to 5. We lynch a human or wolf to reduce to 4. Parity for the neutrals.

Remember that the warning came late and sounded like it was a really unlikely scenario.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Hellheart » 13 Jan 2017, 20:36:28

Admetus wrote:Second, Hellheart, you seem pretty pinned on one wolf one secret faction. I was assuming one wolf two secret faction. What did I miss?

If there's two secret faction, we are not at *potential* lynch-or-lose. We are at actual lynch-or-lose. That term should be used for any parity threat, not just to refer to the wolves.

IMO, especially with that ominous warning, anything else is quite unfair.

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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Rictus » 13 Jan 2017, 20:37:04

Admetus wrote:Back home.

Okay a few of you are going off the deep end here. First, if there's one wolf, that's not what the lynch or lose warning is about. Lynching the wolf is wrong in that case. Rictus, specifically.

Second, Hellheart, you seem pretty pinned on one wolf one secret faction. I was assuming one wolf two secret faction. What did I miss?


You'r second point is interesting. If there are two neutrals working together for parity or a personal win, why haven't they pushed to just lynch JRs and they can go win?


Perhaps it is one human hunting another for a personal win condition?
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Re: Day 6: The Woods

Postby Admetus » 13 Jan 2017, 20:38:01

Hellheart wrote:
Admetus wrote:Second, Hellheart, you seem pretty pinned on one wolf one secret faction. I was assuming one wolf two secret faction. What did I miss?

If there's two secret faction, we are not at *potential* lynch-or-lose. We are at actual lynch-or-lose. That term should be used for any parity threat, not just to refer to the wolves.

IMO, especially with that ominous warning, anything else is quite unfair.

Negative. When wolves are 2 out of 5, it's assumed they're mauling a human, or at worst nobody because of GA. When secret faction are 2 out of 5, the wolves can save you. I think you're wrong on this one.


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