Faction Speculation

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Faction Speculation

Postby Okaros » 13 Oct 2013, 21:07:17

Assuming 4 teams of 5 and 4 Unaligneds, here's what I think the most likely layout is:


Romulans: MEM Okaros Augie DOM Ryvvn
Cardassians: stigmata Blindsniper rekard Mortus
Klingons: Admetus Griffypoo Wasabi FurinMirado CAD
Federation: dferrantino Rictus San spheno Visigoth
Unaligned: RaveBomb meta4 twdog Hellheart Ozymandias (PseudoCardassian)




Follow-up posts will have the reasoning.
Last edited by Okaros on 18 Oct 2013, 07:01:01, edited 10 times in total.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby Okaros » 13 Oct 2013, 21:23:54

24 players minus 5 of us minus 8 dead minus 1 True Seering yields the following 10 results:

Ozymandias: Probably Unaligned Changeling due to his disguise power, possibly Federation? If Federation, he could swap for Furin or Sphenodont easily.

Griffy: Probably Klingon. Not Cardassian due to Griffy's late vote on stigmata on Day 1. Not Federation due to Griffy helping put Rictus away on Day 3. Leaves either Klingon or Unaligned.

Hellheart: Probably Klingon, possibly Cardassian. Likely a seer due to target MEM at night on Night 2. Not Federation because active seer (Rictus) is dead already.

CAD: Probably Klingon, possibly Cardassian. Almost certainly working with Hellheart and Wasabi due to trio of last-minute votes for Augie at EOD on Day 4. Not Federation due to seer-conflict with Rictus.

rekard: Probably Cardassian, possibly Federation. Not Klingon due to last minute vote on Admetus on Day 1. Probably Cardassian because of working with Mortus on Day 4.

Visigoth: Probably Cardassian, possibly Klingon. Not unaligned due to quoting Council messages. Not Federation, would have helped rekard win the lynch on Day 4.

Mortus: Either Cardassian or Klingon. If Klingons are CAD/Wasabi/Hellheart/Griffy, can't be Klingon. Not Federation due to sealing Rictus' fate on Day 3.


FurinMirado: Uncertain. Mildly unlikely to be Cardassian due to Day 1 vote on stigmata. Voting record otherwise useless.
Blindsniper: Probably Cardassian. Unlikely to be on same team as Visigoth due to voting back-to-back votes on Wasabi on Day 2. Middle of the pack votes on Admetus (Day 1), Wasabi (Day 2) and Rictus (Day 3) make him mildly unlikely to be Klingon (Admetus+Wasabi) or Federation (Rictus). Seered as Cardassian by Augie.
sphenodont: Very uncertain. Missed 3 days, only vote cast was a middle-pack vote on Visigoth.
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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 14 Oct 2013, 09:39:45

Ozy: probably not Klingon (Day 1 vote on Admetus). Not on same team as Visigoth (Day 3) (~Federation). Could be on same team as rekard (rekard tried to win Day 4 lynch). Calling him Cardassian or unaligned.

Griffypoo: Agreed on all counts, highly likely Klingon.

Hellheart - probably not Cardassian; mid-to-late vote on stigmata on Day 1. Probably not Federation with early vote on Rictus. I'm not necessarily sold on that one (look at Okaros' vote on Ryvvn, although he attempted to pull it off, and Admetus' vote on Wasabi - we've got some inter-team threatening votes). Still, tentative Klingon is good for me. Not necessarily seer, unless we're getting spy reports on his results (50% failure chance, of course).

CAD: Probably not Federation - had two votes from Rictus & San on Day 3. Not sure on the reasoning for Klingon vs. Cardassian, especially since we've got ~too many Klingons. Also a weird vote on Day 3 - while in Danger (4/3/3/3), CAD drops a throwaway vote on AVS, instead of voting for any of the other three bandwagons (Rictus/Ozy/Visigoth).

rekard: Probably not Klingon (Day 1 Admetus vote); not same team as Visigoth (~Federation). Probably Cardassian.

Visigoth: Probably not Klingon (Day 1 on Griffy [safe], Day 2 on Wasabi, Day 2 Griffy on him [safe]), Day 3 Wasabi on him (not safe). Not same team as Ozy, spheno, or rekard (Day 3). Day 3 is the key here. Why did Rictus and Visigoth not vote on each other for defense? Why did Visigoth not take Ozy up on his offer to move to dferrantino? Why did San not defend Rictus by voting for Visigoth? Rictus and San piled on CAD, Visigoth and dfer piled on Ozy. I think Visigoth is probably Federation. dfer retracted his vote to move to Ozymandias, so that tells me that it mattered, and he could easily have gone to Visigoth instead:
[+] Day 3 Voting Details
Rictus / Visigoth / Ozy / CAD
14:10
4 / 3 / 3 /3
Wasabi -> Visigoth (new vote)
4 / 4 / 3 / 3
dfer retracts, and instead of saving Rictus by voting for Visigoth, goes to Ozy:
4 / 4 / 4 / 3
Ozy now offers Visigoth a truce if they move to dferrantino. Visigoth doesn't accept.
Griffy -> Rictus (new vote)
5 / 4 / 4 / 3
rekard retracts from dfer and moves to Visigoth:
5 / 5 / 4 / 3
San votes - at a very not-normal time for San to be online (~6PM EDT) and votes to save his Federation buddies (new vote, not retraction). For CAD. He doesn't push Visigoth above dfer, he doesn't even vote to bring Ozy into that tie.
5 / 5 / 4 / 4.
Mortus swoops in and pushes Rictus over the edge - final.
6 / 5 / 4 / 4.
I think the Federation was trying to push for either Ozy or CAD, and they didn't get coordinated enough.

Regarding Day 4 & not helping rekard with the lynch: Visigoth is in my Pathfinder game, so he wouldn't have been around from 14:00 on - same situation I was in. Not ~convinced that rekard is Federation - but rekard and Visigoth aren't on the same team (Day 3 vote for rekard on Visigoth).

Mortus: Agreed on not Federation. Very little else to go on.

FurinMirado: Probably not Cardassian, agreed (Day 1 vote on stigmata). Possibly Klingon (~save of Wasabi on Day 2 by voting on Ryvvn). Possibly Federation (3rd federation voter on Ozy on Day 3 - might be why the other two didn't stack on Ozy and split with CAD instead). Given that no one else is likely Federation, Furin probably is.

sphenodont: Probably not Federation (vote on Visigoth Day 3).


Final Speculation:
Federation: dferrantino, Visigoth, FurinMirado, San, Rictus
Klingon: Griffypoo, Hellheart, Admetus, Wasabi, unknown
Cardassian: blindsniper83, rekard, ~Ozymandias, stigmata, unknown

Unknown: CAD, Mortus, sphenodont (not Federation). CAD bending more toward the final Klingon.

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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 14 Oct 2013, 10:07:27

Probably I should move Ozy to the unknowns - I've got him as a tentative Cardassian right now, but I'm not horribly confident in that.

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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby Okaros » 14 Oct 2013, 12:19:44

On CAD: I'm pretty convinced of the CAD/Wasabi/Hellheart trio at the moment, which is why I think he's Klingon rather than Cardassian. Those last-minute shenanigans on Day 4 almost *have* to be orchestrated amongst a team, as two votes alone (from, say, Hellheart+Wasabi) would not have accomplished their goal.




On Visi: Yeah, he's a mess. It's one of the reasons why I wanted Augie to seer him. I'll spend some time later re-examining him based on what you re: his unavailability.

On San/Rictus on Day3: San didn't aggressively defend Rictus on Day 3 because from what I've seen/experienced, San has similar scheduling to Augie's: Around during the daylight hours, usually unavailable in evenings. He voted to push CAD into equal footing with Rictus at one vote behind Visi at the time. This is a "safe" play on his part: Since his schedule dictated that he had to post "soon", pushing a third bandwagon instead of pushing Visi to +2 over Rictus works to mask his allegiance while still providing additional cover. Voting for Visi at that point would have made it obvious that San was trying to protect Rictus.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 14 Oct 2013, 12:24:33

Okaros wrote:On CAD: I'm pretty convinced of the CAD/Wasabi/Hellheart trio at the moment, which is why I think he's Klingon rather than Cardassian. Those last-minute shenanigans on Day 4 almost *have* to be orchestrated amongst a team, as two votes alone (from, say, Hellheart+Wasabi) would not have accomplished their goal.

Yeah, but look at that same thing on Day 2, where Admetus looks more like a Romulan trying to save Ryvvn, right in between a couple of our voters. Would you say that Admetus, Ryvvn, and you look like a trio-block? Maybe, but you're not on the same team. Cooincidental voting isn't necessarily coordinated voting. Not saying you're wrong - just be careful with that in your analysis.

Re: Visigoth. I just can't see why the Federation would be *not* voting to save themselves, unless they didn't have any other options.

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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby Okaros » 14 Oct 2013, 12:38:17

I've received my spy reports, but am seeking clarification from the Qmega about it. Either my agents are making mistakes or something fishy is going on.

Edit: oops, meant to post this in the Night thread. Oh well.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 15 Oct 2013, 06:48:41

So, Furin as a Klingon is making me rework some things. Revisit the Hellheart-as-part-of-a-trio aspect in yours, as well? I'm trying to figure out who the other Feds could be.

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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby Okaros » 15 Oct 2013, 07:09:07

DastardlyOldMan wrote:So, Furin as a Klingon is making me rework some things. Revisit the Hellheart-as-part-of-a-trio aspect in yours, as well? I'm trying to figure out who the other Feds could be.


Yeah, I've already updated my grid post with the results of Furin and Hellheart. Hellheart doesn't disrupt things too badly for me, as his position as last-to-vote in that trio made me think he was the strongest candidate for not actually being part of it.

The changes are actually fairly minor. Furin takes Hellheart's place in the Klingons, Ozy takes Furin's place in the Federation. Visi and spheno are still moderately swappable between the Cardassians and Federation, CAD's almost certainly a Klingon (due to the Wasabi pairing) and that leaves Mortus as either the final Cardassian or a sociopath depending on how many sociopaths there are and whether we're at 4x5 teams or 3x5+1x4.

Hopefully the results for CAD's interrogations will be enlightening. We've been very efficient/lucky in identifying the other teams so far.
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Re: Faction Speculation

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 15 Oct 2013, 07:19:30

I've currently got:

Federation: dferrantino, unknown1, unknown2, ~San
Klingon: FurinMirado, CAD
Cardassian: blindsniper, Mortus, unknown1, unknown2

Sphenodont
rekard
Visigoth - not on same team as sphenodont, rekard, and possibly Ozy (day 3 votes). Maybe not Klingon after early Day 2 vote on Wasabi.
Ozymandias

Going to leave it at that - nothing conclusive going on anything else yet for me.

Hmmm - if sphenodont's not a Cardassian, then they're playing Kingmaker today, and probably trying to keep the Feds alive so that they can toy with them.

e: in with CAD seering info.


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