Night 8

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Night 8

Postby Omega » 16 Oct 2013, 18:09:22

You do not have a night kill tonight.

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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 16 Oct 2013, 18:16:28

Awwwwwww.

But - two of the three spies out, which means that only CAD and Furin remain - but two Cardassians dead. Not too shabby.

Klingons (2)
Federation (1)
Romulans (2)
Cardassians (2)
Hellheart - hopelessly going to be trying to cover the fact that he was seered. Twice. And confirmed as true by us both times. Not a good time to be a sociopath.

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 18:33:03

*blink*

Wow. I was completely off on the spies. Glad those night-kills saved me from veering off into dangerous action territory then.

My saving grace is that I continue to be right in my faction analysis, so I at least have that to comfort me in my shame.

It also does wonderful things for us as far as the end-game goes, we're in MUCH better shape.


Some random thoughts:
I now have absolutely no idea why Augie didn't seer Visi. That's going to hurt my head until I can see the answer (purely random decision?) in the dead thread I guess.

The Fed President threw a last-minute vote for the Council-decides-the-lynch option at the Council (literally, 9 seconds to spare).

I hope the dead are enjoying my constant mis-reads of all things spy-related. :lol:

Perhaps Hellheart is trying to kill Seers (or maybe even spies?) instead of Romulans? Maybe he worked his way through the Romulans in an attempt to find the spy. The fact that he's asking after who seered him makes me wonder if he's trying to find Seers rather than spies specifically, so maybe we're safe(-ish) from him? If he's after Seers, who knows if my power counts for his purposes or not. :flail:

Nobody visited last night, which is good. Tonight should be a nail-biter, though.



Huh. Mortus' ability is a dead ringer for the PM that MEM got. It's listed as a night ability though, so I wonder why our team power didn't catch it? :?: Mortus also explains the second anon-PM that we saw.

Blindsniper is also nowhere near as painful as I'd feared. The vote control explains the motivation for resurrecting enemies, though.

dferr's cover ability may explain the Ozy results (dferr swapped Ozy and MEM?). Which is unfortunate, that means we don't actually know that Ozy has a disguise power. But again, that's a night power that we didn't get notice of.
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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 18:40:57

Omega: When you have some spare time can you confirm that our night power target list is accurate?
By my reading, we should've been notified about Mortus targeting MEM on Night 3.

I'm guessing dferr technically targeted Ozy for the swap on Night 2 and that's why it didn't show up? Not sure. That "we know who targets us at night" aspect definitely does not seem to be functioning as advertised. :(
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 16 Oct 2013, 18:50:29

So, one night-kill, potentially a faction kill. The other was, I'm guessing, either a recharge of a vig ability, or granted through the powerups (my guess is granted through the powerups, dunno).

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 18:58:10

DastardlyOldMan wrote:So, one night-kill, potentially a faction kill. The other was, I'm guessing, either a recharge of a vig ability, or granted through the powerups (my guess is granted through the powerups, dunno).


Yeah, at least one of those was almost certainly from a powerup. There were enough handed out that to fit.

Interestingly enough, someone seered Furin last night. Given the spy results, I no longer trust that I'd see spy results if they were present (booooo!).

Hrm. It couldn't be San seering before he vanished since Blind's power removes its victims powers. So... Cardassians may have another seer? Or perhaps the Klingons seering has a side-effect, much like Augie's, and they're targeting Furin with it for that reason.

Except according to Augie's untrustable results for CAD, all of CAD's powers are passive. Feh. Whatever. I give up on the quest for the remaning spy for now, it's not likely to be relevant until later and we know within a coinflip who it probably is. If we're lucky the other teams will take care of that for us tonight.


Edit: FYI, Furin has an active vote manip and passive defensive/informational powers. We should be careful voting against him or trying to target him with your powers.
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 16 Oct 2013, 19:04:15

Got it - confirmed as Klingon, I assume?

Seering capability could be a powerup as well, although it wouldn't seem to be ~that~ useful this late in the game.

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 19:05:45

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Got it - confirmed as Klingon, I assume?

Seering capability could be a powerup as well, although it wouldn't seem to be ~that~ useful this late in the game.


Oh, good point on the powerup aspect. I hadn't considered that.

And yes, Furin confirmed as a Klingon, although wasn't in doubt since he was publicly claimed by the Chancellor.
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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 19:07:38

Btw, note that Omega has been identifying the source of death in the Unwilling Players threads. Mauls are separate from night-kills. I'll be curious to see last night's results once he updates.
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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 19:11:40

Huh. Well, today should be curious. I guess the spy paranoia was dispatched too quickly for Omega's taste so he had to inject more. :lol:



Edit: Awwww, you took the Senator away Omega. :cry:



Edit2: Looks like Mortus ate a maul last night. Interesting.
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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 20:28:57

It occurs to me that the one person that likely *doesn't* have a complete map of who's-who Faction-wise at this point is Hellheart. And he *definitely* has no clue about the Council. :lol:
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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 21:29:39

Hellheart is fishing for information, DOM. Do NOT tell him about our team power. :P

I think I understand why you said Augie didn't seer him (to counter the "Augie was lying!" claim) but I kind of wish you hadn't. It implies that we have more than one seer and his interest in that question makes me think Hellheart might be after the seers. Telling him Augie was our source could have potentially sent him after one of the other teams, but opportunity lost now oh well.
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 16 Oct 2013, 22:02:47

Okaros wrote:Hellheart is fishing for information, DOM. Do NOT tell him about our team power. :P

I think I understand why you said Augie didn't seer him (to counter the "Augie was lying!" claim) but I kind of wish you hadn't. It implies that we have more than one seer and his interest in that question makes me think Hellheart might be after the seers. Telling him Augie was our source could have potentially sent him after one of the other teams, but opportunity lost now oh well.

Telling him Augie was our source would've given him reason to suggest Augie was lying for "spy reasons" - but at this point, c'mon: I've claimed absolute knowledge, night visitations, defensive capabilities, and about forty other powers. No one's going to *REALLY* believe all that. I mean, I may as well throw vote manipulation in there as well, amirite? :D

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 16 Oct 2013, 22:14:39

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Telling him Augie was our source would've given him reason to suggest Augie was lying for "spy reasons" - but at this point, c'mon: I've claimed absolute knowledge, night visitations, defensive capabilities, and about forty other powers. No one's going to *REALLY* believe all that. I mean, I may as well throw vote manipulation in there as well, amirite? :D


Don't forget to also reveal your status as both a Space Werewolf and Q2.


I guess we'll see what happens with the three random people with Q powers in the morning. Presumably there will be hints of some kind given, since "3 random people" isn't really something to work with.

DOM: Be advised I won't be on for most the day tomorrow. I'm up super-late with work and will be sleeping in until late in the day tomorrow. Should still have plenty of time to get caught up before EOD, but I won't be able to spam up the thread as I have in the past few days.
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 07:34:47

So, rekard's team probably seered Furin last night, and they're pushing to kill him today (knowing full well that he's not the spy) so that they can go after CAD tomorrow. I'm tempted to let Furin know that he was seered last night, so that someone knows his capabilities, but I think that reveals too much.

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 08:43:30

I spent a little bit of thought on whether we had possibly reversed CAD and Ozy team-wise, but that still seems incredibly unlikely. Yes, Augie could have lied about the team results from CAD but that seems like a very dangerous thing, particularly with how focused we were on trying to validate our results and how random the results from my power were (another team seering CAD at any later night could've totally ruined her lie).


rekard's bluster about eliminating the last spy or we lose the game is almost certainly just that. He's trying to hard-sell killing a Klingon (good for them and an easier bill of goods to sell than killing a Romulan). I have a hard time seeing a sane lone-spy victory condition outside of "kill a specific faction and all sociopaths" and that's not what rekard is arguing. Kill *any* nonspy today and we all lose? Feh. Hardly.

A reason for Augie avoiding Visi occurred to me: If the spies are in communication and working together, Augie would know if Visi had a reactive power of some kind that would be dangerous...


Sadly, Furin's going to have a hard time delivering on his alliance promise. Regardless of which one of them is the spy they're going to have to come together today and they won't want to. But if either one of them has a hope of making it to end-game their best shot is killing Hellheart.

DOM: How available are you today at EOD? I'd like to avoid using your vote manip on me if at all possible, but last-minute shenanigans might need you to snipe (or retract) your manipulation tonight.
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 09:37:15

Visigoth's coming over for our regular co-op comp stomp, but I'll be on the computer all night. We kick each other out of the room to check the boards pretty regularly, and I can make sure I'm around for EOD no problem.

Since my power activates during the day, I probably can't retract using it. Omega?

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Re: Night 8

Postby Omega » 17 Oct 2013, 09:51:58

You can change your target any time until EOD.

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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 10:23:59

Also, it might be better for me to target someone *other than you* with my vote manip if we do feel we need to use it. I could bump someone else voting our direction to still achieve the desired results. Bear in mind that with Furin on our side, he might also be using his vote manipulation to balance things out.

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 11:13:39

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Also, it might be better for me to target someone *other than you* with my vote manip if we do feel we need to use it. I could bump someone else voting our direction to still achieve the desired results. Bear in mind that with Furin on our side, he might also be using his vote manipulation to balance things out.


Yeah, that's my hope. I'm just nervous about a possible reconciliation between CAD and Furin resulting in a last-minute shift to eliminate one of us for some reason (really, really unlikely I think, but...). You'll notice Furin's retracted his vote against Hellheart and hasn't recommitted yet.

Ultimately I think that as long as one of us doesn't get lynched any other lynch target winds up working in our favor. It's just matter of degrees, with Hellheart being the obvious preferred choice and Ozy being the least-preferred I think (the lynch gets easier to deal with the more spread out we are, since we can try to play the singletons off against the other 2-man team, or the 2-man against the singletons).
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 13:39:59

We may need to revisit some of the faction speculation; Furin's post made me rethink some of it, and I had rekard and Visigoth on opposite teams, I think for a dangerous vote against him on day 3. Might need to look at the history of that one again.

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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 13:48:58

And guessing that we're going to have a hard time getting HH lynched - the other teams are all jockeying for position. The good thing is, we're not currently picking up any votes.

The bad thing is, we don't have a nightkill tonight, and we know that *at least* one other team does. Not sure if our nightkill got blocked, stolen, or if the disbanding of the Council and our position as 4th-in-line lost it for us, but it seems significant that Omega specifically told us that we didn't have one.

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 14:20:29

DastardlyOldMan wrote:We may need to revisit some of the faction speculation; Furin's post made me rethink some of it, and I had rekard and Visigoth on opposite teams, I think for a dangerous vote against him on day 3. Might need to look at the history of that one again.


Well, I was starting to dig into analysis and speculation on this front, but Hellheart's latest post in the day thread about the PM from Ozy has ground that to a halt because I can't stop giggling about it. I'm inclined to believe that the PM is true, but it could just as easily be a clever ploy. Ozy can't say anything about it due to the post restrictions and Visi can simply deny it regardless of whether it's true or false.
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 14:22:26

Oh, I didn't even consider that he made that up entirely. That is hilarious, if so. Him sending it to Visigoth would confirm that we've got Visigoth and Ozy flipped, which makes a bit more sense to me in the long run.

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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 14:27:50

So, 3 for Ozymandias, 3 for FurinMirado. We know that the Spy's out there on the Klingon team, and at this point, I don't think we're going to get HH lynched.

I'd love to wipe out the Cardassians something good - I'm definitely concerned about Hellheart's nightkill (plus any others that live out there).

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 14:33:26

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Oh, I didn't even consider that he made that up entirely. That is hilarious, if so. Him sending it to Visigoth would confirm that we've got Visigoth and Ozy flipped, which makes a bit more sense to me in the long run.


Yeah, it's definitely a possibility. I'll be heading home shortly and will revisit my Ozy and Visi assumptions. I don't think I ever updated those two after your bit of info on Visi not being available on Day 4 and after the realization that dferr's power could have accounted for Ozy's results.

Fortunately, it doesn't really matter all that much to us from a practical standpoint.

Hellheart appears to have fully grasped his precarious-yet-influential situation, so it's great to see him join Furin in trying to play power broker. :mrgreen:


DastardlyOldMan wrote:So, 3 for Ozymandias, 3 for FurinMirado. We know that the Spy's out there on the Klingon team, and at this point, I don't think we're going to get HH lynched.

I'd love to wipe out the Cardassians something good - I'm definitely concerned about Hellheart's nightkill (plus any others that live out there).


Yeah, I think we'll have to give up on getting him lynched today. I'm less concerned about his kill itself and more concerned with whatever his win condition could be. That wildcard + the spy wildcard makes it tricky to predict how things will go.

If we have to choose between Furin and Ozy-as-a-Cardassian getting lynched I'd say go with Ozy. It forces (or at least makes more likely) night-kills/mauls to head towards Furin to stave off a possible spy win. Lynching Furin frees night-kills to head our way.
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 14:34:53

Hmmm... I see you copied on the PM, FYI. I know better than to *believe* Ozy, of course.

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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 14:50:53

So, the obvious solution here is: Assuming that there is a team with two nightkills available, they'd be relying on Hellheart's kill to even the odds as well, or they'd just get steamrolled tomorrow - but neither team has offered to kill Hellheart - in fact, they've argued against it.

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 15:15:00

DastardlyOldMan wrote:So, the obvious solution here is: Assuming that there is a team with two nightkills available, they'd be relying on Hellheart's kill to even the odds as well, or they'd just get steamrolled tomorrow - but neither team has offered to kill Hellheart - in fact, they've argued against it.



If a 2-player team has two nightkills at their disposal they can *win outright* overnight if Hellheart and the lynch go their way (and all those kills work).


This should be grounds for everyone who doesn't have two nightkills to lynch Hellheart: It removes a night-kill tonight (lynch before night-kill) and ensures that (aside from possible spy victory) there's no chance of double-kill team achieving victory tomorrow.


I'm heading home now, should be able to post that to the Day thread in 15-20 if you like.
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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 15:45:55

Dammit, while I was writing up my nice long in-character post this thing with Ozy pops up and forces me to recalculate before posting. Grrrr.
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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 15:57:23

If we assume Ozy is locked into voting for himself now, the whole lynch is pretty much decided. Hellheart + Klingons + Ozy makes a 4-stack that Furin will probably vote-manip to support. As much as I hate to say it, I think lynching Ozy and taking our chances with death tonight may be our best bet. I don't think we'll be able to get Hellheart without drawing assassination fire from other teams, and targeting Ozy for the lynch still accomplishes the goal of nudging night-kills towards the Klingons.

We just are stuck worrying about a possible spy or sociopath victory tomorrow. :(
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 16:10:22

Agreed - going to wait a bit before I make that commitment. I want to see if rekard's going to backup Ozy's move or not. Regardless, there's a decent chance of one of us getting night-killed tonight, but otherwise, we're going to be significantly targeted tomorrow when we're the last faction left at two players. It might be that there are multiple nightkills and they bash up another team as well, who knows - but at least we theoretically have the 50/50 defense working for us.

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 16:11:32

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Agreed - going to wait a bit before I make that commitment. I want to see if rekard's going to backup Ozy's move or not. Regardless, there's a decent chance of one of us getting night-killed tonight, but otherwise, we're going to be significantly targeted tomorrow when we're the last faction left at two players. It might be that there are multiple nightkills and they bash up another team as well, who knows - but at least we theoretically have the 50/50 defense working for us.


Yeah, we're definitely at the point now where we could wind or lose via the RNG nature of our team power. Exciting! :flail:
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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 16:12:06

Also, not revealing that we have vote manipulation available is definitely to our benefit - just like Furin hasn't revealed his yet, either. I'm guessing he picked that up from the rewards, since not using that all game would be TOUGH. At least, not that I'm aware of - I haven't actually *looked* at the vote totals that closely.

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 16:13:31

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Also, not revealing that we have vote manipulation available is definitely to our benefit - just like Furin hasn't revealed his yet, either. I'm guessing he picked that up from the rewards, since not using that all game would be TOUGH. At least, not that I'm aware of - I haven't actually *looked* at the vote totals that closely.


If there's been any manipulation of the votes it hasn't been visible in the the results anywhere. Every total has resulted in expected outcome and none of the numbers of vote positions have changed in Omega's summaries the following day.

Perhaps we should reveal that Furin has a vote manipulation power?
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Night 8

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 17 Oct 2013, 16:40:31

I think he's saving that as his trump card, and I don't necessarily want to give that away just yet, since we can kind of out-trump his trump card (in theory).

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 16:56:41

I suppose I should actually vote before EOD, shouldn't I?
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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 17:00:24

Time to see who lives and dies!
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Night 8

Postby Okaros » 17 Oct 2013, 17:27:59

I do want to applaud Ozy(?) for that Anon-message today. Actually had me wondering if this was the latest random insanity from Omega before realizing it was a just another anon-message.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM


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