Draw & Discard - Day 3

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Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Ryvvn » 05 Apr 2017, 20:36:18

After much ranting and raving, Her Royal Highness has selected someone to take her place in time out...

Final Tally:
aldax -1- rekard (princess vote)

Game Reveals:
Player aldax -- The Priest -- has been detained.
Player ravebomb (human) has been shredded.

All players other than aldax are once again required to officially vote today.

The GM says this:


Note: Aldax will be PM'd to make his player selections; those players will each be PM'd the other's role and faction at the end of the day, at which point Aldax will still be ejected.


A member of the royalty has been brutally torn asunder! Who (other than Okaros, whom has already been kicked out) could have committed such a terrible act?!

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby rekard » 05 Apr 2017, 20:52:30

Whoa.

Interesting.
Hopefully this goes in our favor.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Gungnir888 » 06 Apr 2017, 04:23:38

The obvious play is to choose somebody and rekard. But is it the right play?

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Admetus » 06 Apr 2017, 07:44:46

FCM, quick -- what are the odds that if Aldax randomly selects two people that aren't Aldax or rekard, that both are wolves?

There are 9 players without those two (and dead RaveBomb), so 9 choose 2 is 36 pairs... 1 in 36 chance of accidentally picking both wolves? Is that how it works?

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby 7-zark-7 » 06 Apr 2017, 07:50:28

To that end, who knows the chosen ones in this example? Aldax and the targets. If he hits both wolves, would we have any way to know?

Can Aldax post from detention? (rekard could, but she's a pretty pretty princess & may be subject to special consideration)

More in a bit,

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Apr 2017, 10:08:03

7-zark-7 wrote:Can Aldax post from detention?

Detention is not a separate board space, detained players are free to speak.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Gungnir888 » 06 Apr 2017, 10:54:55

I've been mulling this off and on this morning.

If Aldax is a wolf, I don't see a good play. The only real option is to not use the ability, or use it on the wolf and whoever the maul tonight is expected to be. The humans get no relevant information, and no chance to start building a consolidated voting bloc.

privately informed of each other's roles and factions. Priest will still be ejected at the end of the day.


I'm not sure if I'm overthinking this, but do the player names get shared with each other? Or do the parties in question have to take Aldax's word for who's confessions he is betraying?

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Aldax » 06 Apr 2017, 10:59:03

This is quite the predicament
Moral of the story: Never self-vig. - rekard

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 06 Apr 2017, 11:30:33

Admetus wrote:FCM, quick -- what are the odds that if Aldax randomly selects two people that aren't Aldax or rekard, that both are wolves?

There are 9 players without those two (and dead RaveBomb), so 9 choose 2 is 36 pairs... 1 in 36 chance of accidentally picking both wolves? Is that how it works?


That's exactly it. There's only one combination that would be both wolves. 1/36 that a human Aldax would randomly select both wolves. There's a 14/36 = 7/18 chance that a human Aldax chooses one wolf and one human.

Naturally, both players will know they were chosen. Player A will receive a message that Player B belongs to x faction. So Player A knows that Player B knows who they are.

If a wolf and human pair is chosen, that human will probably be mauled, but obviously we just detain (and hopefully eject) the wolf tomorrow.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Gungnir888 » 06 Apr 2017, 11:41:07

The Fairy Catmother wrote:Naturally, both players will know they were chosen. Player A will receive a message that Player B belongs to x faction. So Player A knows that Player B knows who they are.

If a wolf and human pair is chosen, that human will probably be mauled, but obviously we just detain (and hopefully eject) the wolf tomorrow.


Slightly pedantic, but the rules don't say identity will be shared, only role and faction. If you get a message that a player is a human princess, that is significantly different than the answer that rekard is a human princess.

Aldax will know the identity, but I would like to know whether the chosen players will know the identities as well. Which way it plays out changes my opinion on whether we should include rekard as a target and not announce who was seered, vs taking two new targets and catching a wolf or building a 3 human team.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 06 Apr 2017, 11:52:18

Ugh well I certainly hope we would know thename. It's not much good to not get that information.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Apr 2017, 11:56:04

The GM says this:


Aldax's choices will each be informed that Player is a Faction & Role.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Admetus » 06 Apr 2017, 14:03:49

No lynch votes yet! Crazy. I'll go first. Best clue available is that the first wolf got to pick his buddy. So with that, it's a simple matter of matching wits with a Sicilian when detention is on the line!

#Vote for: stdio

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Gungnir888 » 06 Apr 2017, 14:09:08

#Vote for: 7z7


I want to put a vote in prior to end of day, and I just had an after hours request for some report analysis.

Given the full knowledge reveal, I'd request that two players who do not appear to be in the running for the vote today get chosen. I'd also request that Aldax keep it a secret to prevent a pre-emptive wolf maul on a known human.

We either find out Aldax is a wolf tomorrow (so can't trust the target announcement), or we have a large human population to control the vote, or we get to play the 'no, YOU are a wolf game' if one gets tagged.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Hellheart » 06 Apr 2017, 16:05:08

This clod has no idea that confessions are supposed to be PRIVATE! Of course I never do anything wrong, so I have nothing to worry about, but humans screw things up all the time!

This Ravebomb...thing is in a lot of pieces. There's one here, a couple over there, oooh here's a big one underneath this rock!

I have deduced that this was probably done by some sort of animal. Or a corrupted Gem that looks like an animal. Either way,
#Vote for: Chriswulf
is probably the perpetrator.

I'm so brilliant! Praise me!

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby 7-zark-7 » 06 Apr 2017, 16:32:44

That was a day. Remember last month's AWS outage. Yeah. Same thing. Vendor fat fingers a key, and takes multiple servers out of production.

We've got guiderails in place to mitigate damage in our vm farm. So only half of the air systems failed over from the x to the y side.

Unfortunately one of them was the vsphere management and it came back up in a "you need to tickle me at the command line to be happy again" mode.

Not even my silo - on air, I'm edit / storage / asset management and archive. But hey Sven, you know this stuff, can you help?

Looking at day 1, I'd color green rekard green and ravebomb. Aldax is in my likely human camp just based on role (maybe random, but kinda useless role for a wolf)
Final Tally:
rekard -6- gungnir, admetus, hellheart, chris, zark, rekard
zark -4- rekard, jrs, fcm, rave, stdio
gungnir -1- aldax
fcm -1- blind

#Vote for: jrsthethird
unless I get better reads later.

Off for a well deserved drink with compatriots from the foxhole.

More (Drunk Zark) in a bit,

7z7
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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Hellheart » 06 Apr 2017, 16:41:29

The almighty whoever-the-hell-runs-this-place said that anybody could be a traitor!

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 06 Apr 2017, 16:42:58

Single votes aren't going to do any good. We've got to start agreeing with each other eventually!

Hmmm...we still don't have very much to go on, as yesterday's votes didn't count (except rekard's), and shouldn't be taken as seriously.

#Vote for: stdio
could be a traitor as well as any other.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby ChrisWulf » 06 Apr 2017, 16:52:47

You're absolutely right. Anybody could be a traitor. And you are behaving quite weird. That's why I
#Vote for: Hellheart

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Hellheart » 06 Apr 2017, 16:56:47

ChrisWulf wrote:You're absolutely right. Anybody could be a traitor. And you are behaving quite weird. That's why I
#Vote for: Hellheart

It's not MY fault that you have such bizarre communication rituals.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby stdio » 06 Apr 2017, 17:32:27

#Vote for: hellheart


because it seems a bit greedy for me to have the most lynch votes

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Jrsthethird » 06 Apr 2017, 18:05:14

Admetus wrote:No lynch votes yet! Crazy. I'll go first. Best clue available is that the first wolf got to pick his buddy. So with that, it's a simple matter of matching wits with a Sicilian when detention is on the line!


Perhaps it's a bit meta to look at the game like this but I think keeping in mind that the second wolf was a convert is important. I don't think it's Chris because most of us have never played with him before. I would look at people who have a strong track record as wolves and a penchant for lasting late in the game.

So percentage-wise, everyone has the same odds of being the original wolf, but some players have a lower percentage of being a wolf than others; like Chris, or myself, with my penchant for getting myself lynched or vigged. This means there are some players with a higher-than-average wolf percentage, and between our current options, im looking at Hellheart over stdio. It's a bummer because I'm enjoying his RP, but that's just how it goes. His strong late-game human play is something that I, if I were a wolf, would want to have taken out of the picture.

#Vote for: Hellheart
Last edited by Jrsthethird on 06 Apr 2017, 19:38:02, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Apr 2017, 18:14:33

A little under 2 hours until EoD.

Current Tally:
hellheart -3- chris, stdio, jrs
stdio -2- admetus, fcm
zark -1- gungnir
chris -1- hellheart
jrs -1- zark

Not Yet Voted: rekard, blind

No Vote Allowed: aldax

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby rekard » 06 Apr 2017, 18:19:32

Hmmm. Flattering someone and voting for him?
I think Hellheart sometimes brings too much attention to himself. He either looks very human or looks very wolfy and people lynch him cuz of the attention. For some reason, Jrs feels like I don't know. Saying too much?

So
#Vote for: JrsTheThird

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Blindsniper83 » 06 Apr 2017, 19:00:08

#Vote for: JRS
feels like the wolf to me
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Gungnir888 » 06 Apr 2017, 19:19:56

I like jrs more than heart, and I want to limit the seer targets.

#Vote for: jrs

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Apr 2017, 19:21:57

About 40 minutes until EoD.

Current Tally:
jrs -4- zark, rekard, blind, gungnir
hellheart -3- chris, stdio, jrs
stdio -2- admetus, fcm
chris -1- hellheart
zark -0- gungnir



Not Yet Voted: none

No Vote Allowed: aldax

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Jrsthethird » 06 Apr 2017, 19:37:31

I don't think I've done anything suspicious. Why the train on me? I'm giving my own vote a second thought, although I doubt anyone else will switch.

#Vote for: stdio

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby 7-zark-7 » 06 Apr 2017, 19:41:18

I'm not comfortable with the run up either.
"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 3

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Apr 2017, 20:00:16

Day has ended.


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