Draw & Discard - Day 4

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Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Apr 2017, 20:07:30

Oh. Huh. I guess a couple of you did want the carnal lust after all. Now that's what I call a sticky situation...

Final Tally:
jrs -4- zark, rekard, blind, gungnir
stdio -3- admetus, fcm, jrs
hellheart -2- chris, stdio, jrs
chris -1- hellheart
zark -0- gungnir

Game Reveals:
Player aldax (human) has been ejected; the Priest role card has been discarded.
Player jrsthethird -- The Countess -- has been detained.
Player stdio -- The Prince -- has joined jrsthethird in detention.
Player gungnir (human) has been shredded.

All players other than jrsthethird and stdio are required to vote today.

The GM says this:


Note: Because Jrs the Countess has pulled in stdio the Prince, Jrsthethird will be ejected at the end of the day and stdio will return to normal play. Also, stdio's role was revealed by way of the Countess, but the Prince's power does not trigger today.


Please decide which of you will be cleaning up the mess in the detention room once those two are done with it.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Jrsthethird » 06 Apr 2017, 21:13:24

Fuck. Why did I switch again?!

I'm a sitting duck today, nothing I can do to change my fate. I am human, but you'll find out for sure tomorrow.

We have

FCM
Chris
Admetus
RaveBomb
rekard (Princess)
stdio (Prince)
zark
Blindsniper
Hellheart

9 players left with two wolves. I'd imagine one of them voted for me, one on someone else. Of those on me, I'm looking at Blindsniper.

Blindsniper had a throwaway vote day 1 and he was the one that pushed me into a tie for the lead yesterday. At the time of the vote, he tied me with Hellheart, which makes a possible defense vote for a Hellheart wolf teammate (whom, btw, had a pretty odd vote on Chris yesterday too). Blindsniper/Hellheart is a combo I would support.

Who was targeted by Aldax? Please share!

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 06 Apr 2017, 21:26:37

You clod! If the two that confessed to that blabby excuse for a priest are what passes for royalty around here, then they should keep their mouths shut unless we're about to detain one!

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Admetus » 06 Apr 2017, 23:20:14

Hellheart wrote:You clod! If the two that confessed to that blabby excuse for a priest are what passes for royalty around here, then they should keep their mouths shut unless we're about to detain one!

If one is a wolf, we should have a face-off now, because the other one is getting mauled shortly.

Also, consider the possibility that Gungnir was one of the two. If a wolf is on the other end, he gets a free human claim. He can even muddy the situation a bit by waiting a day, saying he agreed with you, Hellheart, and then claiming he was a human and paired with <human-who-got-mauled-tonight>. It's what you would have recommended happen since you're saying two humans should wait until one is threatened by lynch or killed by maul.

So it's not completely cut and dried.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Jrsthethird » 07 Apr 2017, 00:07:09

Aldax should have posted at 7:59 who his targets were, in case of a maul. You'd find me at my computer, finger on the post button, watching the seconds tick down if I were him. Not fucking around with the possibility of losing one of them to a maul.

That said, we can't be waiting around until a wagon forms to see who bites, for the same reason. If players A and B were targeted, and nobody is voting on either of them, then there's a strong possibility one dies to a maul. Yes, they will likely be mauled anyway for being a confirmed human, but they're also taking key information about a player still in the game to the grave. That only hurts the humans.

I'm really regretting my late-day switch now...

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 07 Apr 2017, 00:23:53

It's definitely a predicament. It's hard to tell what the best thing is to do.

Two option seem safe, though:

- If Aldax chose rekard as one of the two, rekard could let us know if we have a confirmed human or a wolf without repercussion, since he is the alpha, and probably human himself. ( I think we're all pretty much agreed on rekard's very likely humanity.)

- If Aldax chose a human and wolf, whoever the human in that pair is should immediately reveal. The wolf would know who you are anyway, so there's no reason not to.



If Aldax chose 2 humans, I'm not completely sure what the safest thing to do is; however, I do think that the more information we have, the better.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 07 Apr 2017, 00:56:48

Admetus wrote:Also, consider the possibility that Gungnir was one of the two. If a wolf is on the other end, he gets a free human claim. He can even muddy the situation a bit by waiting a day, saying he agreed with you, Hellheart, and then claiming he was a human and paired with <human-who-got-mauled-tonight>. It's what you would have recommended happen since you're saying two humans should wait until one is threatened by lynch or killed by maul.

(( TLDR: Human-Wolf pairings should reveal ASAP including roles. Human-Human pairings should reveal after wagons form, omitting roles.

No matter what they do, they SHOULD NOT reveal roles UNLESS it's a human-wolf pairing. Don't give a Wolf Guard a free snipe on a human or a Wolf King more clear options.

I fully agree that a human-wolf peek should reveal today.

We can't do anything about a mauled human that was part of an Aldax peek. Realistically, if that happens the human involved is going to get mauled regardless, so it only hurts us if the player on the other end is also human.

I cut off the spoiler below because I realized that there's a 50% chance that a human-human peek has a member mauled. There's 7 non-detained members, 2 of which are wolves (**assuming that neither Jrs nor stdio are wolves. There's statistically a 58% chance that is true**), but one of the remaining 5 is rekard who can't die. Human-human peeks should reveal after wagons form today.

I would have recommended a reveal tomorrow, before they could get ejected by a human power as well, but 50% is really friggin' large. Note that if there is a wolf in the set {Jrs, Stdio}, then the chance goes down to 40%, which is still dangerously large.

[+] WRONG WRONG
If the peek was human-human it's up to the players involved. I personally think that early revealing (meaning revealing after wagons form today, not before then) is a mixed bag:

Benefits to revealing today:
  • It saves us one potential mislynch if one of those players get mauled. There is a 33% chance one of them gets mauled tonight, assuming random selection.
  • It gives us confirmed humans that we can trust

Benefits to revealing tomorrow:
[list][*]It saves us one potential mislynch if one of those players get mauled. Assuming stdio is removed from detention at EOD today, there is a (66% *
[*]It gives us confirmed humans we can trust.
))

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 07 Apr 2017, 07:20:28

Anyone else finding it challenging to figure out who to vote for with detention's delayed-faction reveal? Normally, we'd have a few days of vote history by now- we still only have day 1 to go by.

Despite our not knowing whether Jrsthethird and/or stdio are human, I'm still not liking the late wagon on Jrsthethird.

#Vote for: Blindsniper88
is a viable candidate.
Last edited by The Fairy Catmother on 07 Apr 2017, 17:08:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Admetus » 07 Apr 2017, 07:34:31

Who was being protected, if that's the case, FCM? Because that particular hunt includes popular human candidate rekard and known human gungnir. Stdio or Hellheart?

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 07 Apr 2017, 10:00:43

Admetus wrote:Who was being protected, if that's the case, FCM? Because that particular hunt includes popular human candidate rekard and known human gungnir. Stdio or Hellheart?

(( I'll get my spreadsheet going and have vote timings up tonight when I get home from work, or after the nap I may immediately take. Or after I play Hollow Knight after said nap. Point is, sometime tonight.

I'm going to make the simple argument that I'm only a wolf if I started as a wolf. Even a complete idiot would know that I'll probably get myself killed well before F5 so I'm a terrible convert.

If you look at the votes, stdio had his vote on me but my vote was on Chriswulf, so I could swap to stdio if necessary and I'm usually around at EOD. Given that we were the leading wagons, a wolf vote on the JRS run would be more likely aimed at protecting stdio.

That said, a protecting vote is very dangerous when there's only two wolves. That would be very player-dependent. And the maul on Gungnir is super odd if stdio flips wolf with a protecting wolf vote.

----

One thing to note is that stdio is far and away the most dangerous potential wolf. I believe he could force rekard to discard his role, which is all kinds of awful. The King can swap roles with him, but we'd just lynch rekard again to re-swap and then kill off the King with a detention ability. If we want stdio dead, I'd prefer to see him ejected using a detention ability rather than outright lynched. ))

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 07 Apr 2017, 11:38:59

Admetus wrote:Who was being protected, if that's the case, FCM? Because that particular hunt includes popular human candidate rekard and known human gungnir. Stdio or Hellheart?


I wasn't necessarily thinking about it as a protective train, just an oddly quick pile-up that a wolf could easily get lost in.

Hellheart makes sense- I keep forgetting that stdio's faction won't be revealed tomorrow, because he's coming back. We will find out Jrsthethird's faction. If JRS flips wolf, I think stdio is human. It seems odd that a wolf JRS would make a wolf stdio the runner-up...unless JRS figured that he was dying anyway, so why not die and give stdio cred?

The problem here is, all of our votes are based on speculations that sound like, "If this person is human, then this person is suspicious." We only had one lynch that resulted in a faction reveal so far. After tomorrow, we'll have a bit more info (and the players that were seer-paired by Aldax have more info), but right now we're still in the dark.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 07 Apr 2017, 12:34:32

(( I'd wagon potential converts that we can afford to lose. There's another point of data that could be useful too: the Gungnir maul makes sense when he was a singleton on Zark, but is an absolutely garbage decision after he switches to Jrs. That was within an hour of EOD, so there's a decent chance that no wolves were on within an hour of EOD.

That's kind of meta and I could easily be outleveling myself there, but it's worth keeping in mind.

Zark is unlikely to be a convert given the ~vote snipe by rekard and his being around at EOD yesterday. That leaves me with a bunch of players that I'd rather not lose, Chriswulf who we probably won't lynch for awhile (which is why he'd make a good convert and thus why I voted him), and Blindsniper who I'm not sure would fly as a convert. Removing the players that I'd expect to be around at EOD if they were wolves (Admetus & rekard with the latter almost certainly being human anyway) and I am literally left with only one choice:
#Vote for: FairyCatMother


E: If Jrs is a wolf then the Gungnir maul makes more sense, kinda, except that it was statistically likely that Jrs returns to play so one could argue that Gungnir voted him to buy cred. It wouldn't have made him lock human. ))

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby rekard » 07 Apr 2017, 13:24:08

It is voting time. I'll do Admetus for now. What I would say has been pretty much covered by everyone here.

Although my hot take is that well we need that info today, not tomorrow.

#Vote for: Admetus

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Admetus » 07 Apr 2017, 14:56:58

Since stdio is coming back to the humans, can we vote to re-jail him today? Just out of curiosity, I don't want to jail the Prince right now.

We're getting behind the wolves in deaths here. They get a kill every night, we get a small handful of human casualties when the detained roles can't save themselves. Not sure of a great way to catch up, though.

Not going to be available tonight, registering my vote with not a ton of expected result.
#Vote for: The Fairy Catmother

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby 7-zark-7 » 07 Apr 2017, 15:46:06

Jrsthethird wrote:We have

FCM
Chris
Admetus
RaveBomb
rekard (Princess)
stdio (Prince)
zark
Blindsniper
Hellheart

9 players left with two wolves. I'd imagine one of them voted for me, one on someone else. Of those on me, I'm looking at Blindsniper.


So I took a few minutes to go through the cards, & unless he's the decaying skeleton, Ravebomb's just not here.

Image

So 8 players left when countess JRS falls, 2 wolves, & a nightly maul. Barring protection or a change in luck,
Day 5 will dawn at 7-2
Day 6 = 5-2
Day 7 = 3-2

Hellheart - you got those heatmaps up yet? It's cold out here & Kiera Knightly won't invite me in for some strange reason...

A shame, that.

More in a bit,

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 07 Apr 2017, 15:59:34

Admetus wrote:Since stdio is coming back to the humans, can we vote to re-jail him today? Just out of curiosity, I don't want to jail the Prince right now.

Mentioned at the opening of Day 2, but forgot to copy over to the rules thread. Short answer: no.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby 7-zark-7 » 07 Apr 2017, 16:14:47

today:
The Fairy Catmother : 2 : Hellheart, Admetus
Blindsniper : 1 : The Fairy Catmother
Admetus : 1 : Rekard

Day 4 Game Reveals:
Player aldax (human) has been ejected; the Priest role card has been discarded.
Player jrsthethird -- The Countess -- has been detained.
Player stdio -- The Prince -- has joined jrsthethird in detention.
Player gungnir (human) has been shredded.

Day 3 Game Reveals:
Player aldax -- The Priest -- has been detained.
Player ravebomb (human) has been shredded.

Day 2 Game Reveals:
Player rekard -- The Princess -- has been detained.
Due to the order of operations (see rules thread), for this day only, I must state that at the time of placement in detention, rekard was human.
A second wolf has been selected; proper mauls will begin tonight.

I feel like the best source of info we have is the day 1 vote:

Final Tally:
rekard -6- gungnir, admetus, hellheart, chris, zark, rekard
zark -4- rekard, jrs, fcm, rave, stdio
gungnir -1- aldax
fcm -1- blind

My gut is the first wolf is on our fair princess :eyebrow:, but there's no time to discuss things in committee. I don't have a read on Chris, but he may be a reasonable vote for a second wolf given we tend not to lynch new players too early. I doubt Ryvvn would give the alpha wolf to a brand new player. Keeping an eye there I suppose is the best way to call it.

I'm hoping hellheart can make with the heatmaps, although delayed resolution complicates that a bit. Still, not someone I'm looking too strongly at right now.

Blindsniper's solo vote day 1 is of interest because I tend to think the day 1 wolf would hide in a bandwagon rather than a singleton. I can't rule out a wolf elect.

JRS resolves tonight either way. I lean human there.

Stdio's role is potentially dangerous in the hands of a wolf, but not eligible for our vote.

I don't have a read on FCM - she tends to shoot me a lot, so I'm glad there's not a vigilante in this skin.

Last, it's day four, so I just want to get out alive at this point.

#Vote for: Admetus
due to his day 1 position and a desire for information.

I tend to agree with the logic of two revealed humans should keep their council to themselves unless they wind up lynch candidates. Even then, depending upon their roles, a mutual "yeah, I heard he was human" is probably for the best rather than a full role reveal.

More in a bit,

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby The Fairy Catmother » 07 Apr 2017, 17:08:05

I suppose it does make more sense for the original wolf to hide in the rekard wagon Day 1 than have a singleton vote.
Also, self-preservation is always a strong motivation.
Changing my vote to
#Vote for: Admetus

I don't know if we'll hear from Chris tonight. It's already 2am his time. :(

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby ChrisWulf » 07 Apr 2017, 17:12:51

This is getting more and more tricky! Jrs explanation sounds most likely to me right now.
#Vote for: Blindsniper88

Don't worry :) I wont forget to vote ;)

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Jrsthethird » 07 Apr 2017, 17:17:04

Sorry zark, I forgot RaveBomb was dead. I would suggest pulling him back, detaining him again, and eject him even further away this time. Y'know, kinda like a spring.

I'm getting a more human read on zark. Don't think he's a good convert target either. ;)

Chris is an interesting case, because the tendency to not lynch new players early is a thing. However, as someone who's participated in real life werewolf/mafia games with Ryvvn, I wouldn't think Ryvvn would reroll him if he was the starting wolf.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 07 Apr 2017, 17:18:47

Under 3 hours until EoD.

Current Tally:
admetus -3- rekard, zark, fcm
fcm -2- hellheart, admetus
blind -1- fcm, chris

Not Yet Voted: blind

No Vote Allowed: jrs, stdio

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 07 Apr 2017, 17:20:25

The GM says this:


Cutting off the Meta: All role/faction assignments are completely random, regardless of player experience.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby rekard » 07 Apr 2017, 17:25:27

So let's do some blindsniper voting.

#Vote for: Blindsniper83

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Blindsniper83 » 07 Apr 2017, 18:00:50

#Vote for: Admentus



(Ooc) my phone has learned everyones name except the new guy.... guess I'll have to vote him a few times to learn it lll
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.


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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Hellheart » 07 Apr 2017, 18:39:33

(( Zark's argument about singleton wagons is compelling. But we ARE talking about
#Vote for: Blindsniper
here. I've always figured he put about as much thought into his Day 1 vote as San or Visigoth does.

If Admetus wasn't around at EOD yesterday either, then I'd be looking at him as a likely convert. If he snipes Blindsniper at an EOD where he's not supposed to be present, he's a dirty dirty wolf. Everyone will see him as a likely convert, but that could have the Ozymandias Effect where Admetus gets converted under the assumption that he's too obvious to reasonably suspect. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 07 Apr 2017, 18:41:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 07 Apr 2017, 18:40:13

Current Tally:
admetus -3- rekard, zark, fcm, blind
blind -3- fcm, chris, rekard, hellheart
fcm -1- hellheart, admetus

Not Yet Voted: none

No Vote Allowed: jrs, stdio

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Re: Draw & Discard - Day 4

Postby Ryvvn » 07 Apr 2017, 20:00:26

Day has ended.


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