Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

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Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby SHODAN » 25 Feb 2018, 19:20:42

Your futile efforts to dismember sphenodont reveal him to be another one of my drones.

He leaves to go elsewhere, having failed in his mission.

The rest of you stare at each other nervously. Who else could it be?

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Re: Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby SHODAN » 25 Feb 2018, 19:21:02

The GM says this:


sphenodont has been lynched.
sphenodont is dead.
sphenodont was a Wolf (converted Human Seer).

You are still at lynch or lose.

EOD will be 10pm Eastern on Monday.

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Re: Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2018, 21:49:40

One left out of four, and no maul. I could see the no maul having been a deliberate choice. It's also compatible with the RaveBomb of not really playing.

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Re: Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby Admetus » 26 Feb 2018, 08:31:20

Okay -- I did a brief re-read of the last section of the game here

If it's RaveBomb, I don't know that I can do anything to figure that out. If it is him, though, he could miss a maul and we'd get a free lynch. So if tomorrow we've lynched a human and not lost, lynch RaveBomb.

Visigoth and Zark both picked up some heat earlier in the game. Visigoth had a lot more. The timing of the conversion would have been pretty important, though. If sphenodont was their last convert, and FCM the first, we're looking for the middle one. We could guess it was night 1/3/5, though it might have been more helpful to the town if it was 1/2/3. But spheno's reveal was day 5, so I'm going with the 1/3/5 assumption. (Keep in mind the days are labeled as N+1, etc, so day 5 is N+4.) On day 3 (N+2), CAD got lynched with 3 votes over Visigoth's 2, including a vote from wolf-FCM. Aldax is voting for Visigoth the next day, too -- that one is 3-2 dfer over Visigoth.

I know that doesn't invalidate a Visigoth conversion, because neither of those votes is pushing Visigoth into the lead. But if I had a new convert, I wouldn't be making him a viable wagon repeatedly.

So that leaves Zark, who would be a much nicer, typical under-the-radar choice.

#Vote for: 7-zark-7

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Re: Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby Visigoth » 26 Feb 2018, 13:29:08

My hesitation about 7-Zark-7 is that post sphenodont conversion 7-Zark-7 voted on him. Now yesterday was kind of a no-brainer and something he has to do if he's the last wolf, but why vote on him on Day N+6. There were two votes on rekard at that point and a number of other people he could have voted on so seems a little off that he'd potentially but their new recruit in harms way. Obviously he could have done that to get credit in case he did get lynched on N+6, but still seems a little risky after losing their converter the day before.

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Re: Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby 7-zark-7 » 26 Feb 2018, 14:10:13

Admetus wrote:One left out of four, and no maul. I could see the no maul having been a deliberate choice. It's also compatible with the RaveBomb of not really playing.


Also compatible with my bandwidth lately

He then wrote:So that leaves Zark, who would be a much nicer, typical under-the-radar choice.


While I agree with the sentiment, I'm not quite as hip on the target.

Provisional retracted, was [#vote]ravebomb[#vote] as I dig through and try to dig out.

More in a bit?

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Re: Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby Visigoth » 26 Feb 2018, 16:01:30

RaveBomb certainly is a decent choice but almost too good. It all kind of fits with the missed maul and being a prime target for conversion since there'd have been 2 days without him posting prior to conversion #2 so totally off people's radars at that point.

7-Zark-7 is still possible and sphenodont clearing him after conversion could be an wolf clearing a wolf or just stating fact hoping that we'd believe it's the former situation.

But I think
#Vote for: Admetus
would be smart enough to go no maul to throw suspicion on RaveBomb for the missed maul, but also to carry more people to the final round. His vote of no lynch would also follow on the day after the 2nd conversion which would be a good play for a conversion game and was really just following dferrantino's lead. His N+5 on 7-Zark-7 feels a little weak and might have been an attempt to move the vote away from the Prime Simulant though kind of hard when one of their own started the vote on Aldax. Sure Aldax voted on Admetus but Aldax was the one to protect since without him there were no more conversions.

This is a horrible ending since there's no consolidation which gives the remaining wolf total control of the game with a late snipe. But RaveBomb feels like a patsy and 7-Zark-7 feels more human to me than Admetus.

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Re: Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby Admetus » 26 Feb 2018, 17:32:51

Visigoth wrote:My hesitation about 7-Zark-7 is that post sphenodont conversion 7-Zark-7 voted on him. Now yesterday was kind of a no-brainer and something he has to do if he's the last wolf, but why vote on him on Day N+6.

That vote was no threat, and everyone knew the seer had to be lynched if he was around too long. I'm quite certain sphenodont would have asked for Zark's vote in the wolf forum.

Also, I don't think there was a no maul on N+6. I'm guessing the conversions were every other day, and since late conversions really favor wolves, the mauls were going to stay every other day. Just my guess based on balance, but that fits, to me.

To be honest, I get more of a wolfy read on Visigoth than Zark based on posts. But the fact that Zark is voting for RaveBomb comforts me somewhat... that's a good wolf move while waiting to see if the humans botch it. Also, I'm relying on the relatively stronger argument for Visigoth being not converted out of the two, that I mentioned before.

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Re: Day N+8: Any way the wind blows

Postby 7-zark-7 » 26 Feb 2018, 18:58:23

This will likely be read as a late snipe by a wolf, which is unfortunate. I just got home & based on above am changing my
#Vote for: Admetus
.

More in a bit?

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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros


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