Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

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Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Clearasday » 17 Nov 2013, 17:48:19

"The Viewers at home are baying for blood, probably screaming at their televisions right now. Of course most of them are likely way way way too busy writing in messages to us as we speak. We're totally inundated with heartfelt thanks and messages of support going out to all of the audience's favourite lovers. But enough of this actual love and warmth on our show. Let's get back to what we do best. Decapitating!"

Yes, it's time to Start Day 3 of...

'Are You In Love With A Wolf That Wants to Rip Your Guts Out?'

At this point the now severely jittery and underfed contestants pipe up briefly

"I am, I am"
"I'm so in love with a wolf and I like it!"
"Pick me!"
"My vote should totally have counted, that fu..."
"Pourquoi?"
"What has love got to do with it?"
"GET ON WITH IT"

The host coughs loudly and what sounds like a pistol being loaded is clearly heard coming from the left of the stage. The contestants quickly edge backwards and silence reigns again.


"Today you've chosen DastardlyOldMan as the Lover most likely to be a wolf about to transform and kill all of you. And since today is Decapitation Sunday, he'll be taking a nice 5-star holiday with all of his loved ones in our fabulous new Decapitator 5000.
A scrawny intern begins hobbling forwards toward DastardlyOldMan with an axe. DastardlyOldMan starts to panic when he see's the 'fabulous new' weapon approaching

"Thats absolutely unhygenic. I couldn't possibly be seen dying on the blade of that sort of thing. It simply won't do. Get it away from me immediately. Oh Necklessone get it away." DastardlyOldMan stamps his foot and frowns at the intern. This seems to slow the axe-wielder but a little.

But a little is just enough time for a miracle. And Necklessone, unable to deal with the stress of another lover dying at his feet, springs into action. He leaps a table, he leaps a chair, he leaps a chandelier for good effect. With an expert duck and roll he manages to kick the Host in the face, karate chop at least three people that were actually coming to the aid of DastardlyOldMan, and then top off his quite excellent acrobatics by springboarding off one of them, and landing right in front of DastardlyOldMan. Inches away from his lover, (who is now applauding) and with milliseconds left to prevent the Decapitator from Decapitatening, Necklessone throws his arms out wide, shielding his lover from harm, yelling "YOU CANNOT DECAPITATE WHAT HAS NO NEC-"

Slice

"Ouch. One thing is clear ladies and gentlemen. Someone is going to have to teach that intern what the word Decapitation actually means. I have no idea what he's attempted to do but its safe to say they won't be recovering from it any lifetime soon. To be fair to the intern though, how does one actually decapitate a necklessone?"




DastardlyOldMan was lynched. He was the Backup Lover.
Necklessone died of a broken heart. He DastardlyOldMan's Lover.
The lack of any hip new teenage paranormal TV series being made about either of them suggests that they were both Human aligned.


The Question was posed: How many times can we kill DOM?
The Question has been answered: 1.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Clearasday » 17 Nov 2013, 17:48:36

Vote Tally

DOM - 6 - Furin, Admetus, Meta4, twdog, Omega, Okaros
Okaros - 6 - Hellheart, Wasabi, rekard, Zark, Spheno, DOM
Rekard - 3- Stigmata, necklessone, Mortus
Twdog - 1 - ICB
Hellheart - 1 - Ryvvn

[+] Vote History
Ravebomb votes for Rictus
Hellheart votes for ICB
Hellheart votes for MEM

Rekard votes for Omega
Stigmata votes for Rekard
Furin votes for DOM
ICB votes for twdog
Zark votes for Rekard
Admetus votes for DOM
Meta4 votes for DOM
Necklessone votes for rekard
Hellheart votes for DOM
DOM votes for Griffypoo

Rekard votes for Zark
Hellheart votes for MEM
Okaros votes for Rekard
Hellheart votes for Okaros
Ryvvn votes for Hellheart
Twdog votes for DOM
Wasabi votes for Okaros
Mortus votes for rekard
Okaros votes for Admetus
Rekard votes for Okaros
Okaros votes for rekard
Zark votes for Okaros
Spheno votes for Okaros
Omega votes for DOM
DOM votes for Okaros
Okaros votes for DOM
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Mister E. Meat » 17 Nov 2013, 17:50:12

Sorry I missed voting all, I was confused by the times. A lame excuse, I know but I've adjusted my board settings so that 8 PM no longer looks like 9 PM... guh.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Ryvvn » 17 Nov 2013, 17:50:45

The things:

[+] Day 2 History
Rave --> Rictus (FAILED RETRACTION)
Hellheart --> ICB (RETRACTED)
Hellheart --> MEM (RETRACTED)
rekard --> Omega (RETRACTED)
Stigmata --> rekard
Furin --> DOM
ICB --> twdog
Zark --> rekard (RETRACTED)
Admetus --> DOM
Meta4 --> DOM
neckless --> rekard
Hellheart --> DOM (RETRACTED)
DOM --> Griffy (RETRACTED)
rekard --> Zark (RETRACTED)
Hellheart --> MEM (RETRACTED)
Okaros --> rekard (RETRACTED)
Hellheart --> Okaros
Ryvvn --> Hellheart
twdog --> DOM
Wasabi --> Okaros
Mortus --> rekard
Okaros --> Admetus (RETRACTED)
rekard --> Okaros
Okaros --> rekard (RETRACTED)
Zark --> Okaros
spheno --> Okaros
Omega --> DOM
DOM --> Okaros
Okaros --> DOM
Rave --> Okaros (FAILED SNIPE)

Okaros (6) -- Hellheart, Wasabi, rekard, Zark, spheno, DOM
DastardlyOldMan (6) -- Furin, Admetus, Meta4, twdog, Omega, Okaros
rekard (3) -- Stigmata, neckless, Mortus
Rictus (1) -- Rave
twdog (1) -- ICB
Hellheart (1) -- Ryvvn

DID NOT VOTE: Blindsniper, dferr, Griffy, MEM, Rictus
Last edited by Ryvvn on 18 Nov 2013, 13:35:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 17 Nov 2013, 18:59:00

(( I have two major questions from yesterday. The first one: Omega, why the late vote on DOM? I can understand twdog's vote which tied DOM with rekard, but I'd like you to explain your reasoning. I would have explained mine if both Okaros and his lover were human, unlikely as that seems to be. ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 17 Nov 2013, 19:00:45

((
Second major question:

Okaros wrote:Hellheart wrote:
Likely Wolves
Okaros (explain that rekard vote or die. You either had a very compelling reason or you're a wolf. I'm definitely willing to hear your reasoning, but you're a wolf in absence of that reasoning)


What, you're going to shoot me with that vig you don't have? :roll:

My reasoning is simple: We have enough people playing that a wagon of 3 or 4 is barely a wagon at all. An easy joke came to mind, for him, so rekard got my vote. Additionally, even though there are only 5 wolves out there's also the possibility of there being as many as 5 humans out there that, if lynched, result in the death of a broken-hearted wolf. On all of Day Two with no significant voting record established yet I'll happily reinforce a bandwagon started by someone else in an effort to push today's voting record into some semblance of usefulness.

Or we could all just make random one-off votes. Would that make you happier? How about Admetus - retracted?



Edit: Oh, and to satisfy Hellheart's deep, burning desire for my motivations (is that what they're calling it these days?): Admetus was the first person with no votes on the roster.

Is this feigned wolfy anger or actual justified anger? I'm leaning towards the former, but I honestly am unfamiliar with how people "read" these emotional responses.
))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Blindsniper83 » 17 Nov 2013, 19:27:45

Stigmata, only as a placeholder for now unless i forget again, lol.............. :S heres hoping i have a great first day tomorrow
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 17 Nov 2013, 19:35:18

Blindsniper83 wrote:Stigmata, only as a placeholder for now unless i forget again, lol.............. :S heres hoping i have a great first day tomorrow

(( Your first time is always the best time.

...Okay that's bullshit it's going to be the worst unless you're a male with an experienced partner. But let's pretend that it is. ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Admetus » 17 Nov 2013, 22:36:33

Sorry, I got back really late from my brother's place. I forgot to set the password to this site in my new phone, so there was no way to even read what was going on. If I'd been able to reach the board before deadline, I would have definitely responded when DOM raised the same main point that I've been worrying about Day 1 and 2. It seemed to me like the wolves have been targeting people they wouldn't easily be able to attack directly after the first few "random" days.

Of course this doesn't mean rekard and similar are villagers. I think this game is going to have a lot more backstabbing and other attempts to mask wolfish identity than normal. But even if the analysts are wolves, they still have to put analysis out to be judged, and the more of them that are still alive, the easier it is to check their work.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby stigmata » 17 Nov 2013, 22:41:41

Blindsniper83 wrote:Stigmata, only as a placeholder for now unless i forget again, lol.............. :S heres hoping i have a great first day tomorrow

I thought we were bros, bro. Now you've broken my heart.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 17 Nov 2013, 23:57:39

Admetus wrote:Sorry, I got back really late from my brother's place. I forgot to set the password to this site in my new phone, so there was no way to even read what was going on. If I'd been able to reach the board before deadline, I would have definitely responded when DOM raised the same main point that I've been worrying about Day 1 and 2. It seemed to me like the wolves have been targeting people they wouldn't easily be able to attack directly after the first few "random" days.

Of course this doesn't mean rekard and similar are villagers. I think this game is going to have a lot more backstabbing and other attempts to mask wolfish identity than normal. But even if the analysts are wolves, they still have to put analysis out to be judged, and the more of them that are still alive, the easier it is to check their work.

(( I have no reason to believe that any of the living analysts are Villagers, but DOM's post and this post involve a simple statistical fact: at the beginning of the game, any given player has an ~80% chance of being a Villager. If a player is a huge benefit to the humans if he's a Villager, it is never worth lynching him early on on the off chance that he might be a wolf. If you can make a compelling case that one of those players is a wolf then the underlying equation changes, and as the percentage chance of being a wolf increases it becomes much more reasonable to lynch that player. If two players are equally likely to be wolves then you should lynch the one with the least Villager value absent other considerations, although in reality you will never get the chance to compare two players in a vacuum like that. ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby FurinMirado » 18 Nov 2013, 04:08:01

I'm looking at the Day1/Day2 alternate bandwagons. Odds are in our favor that one of these is a Wolf:

Mister E. Meat
Hellheart
Okaros

On a hunch I will start with Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 18 Nov 2013, 04:50:00

FurinMirado wrote:I'm looking at the Day1/Day2 alternate bandwagons. Odds are in our favor that one of these is a Wolf:

Mister E. Meat
Hellheart
Okaros

On a hunch I will start with Mister E. Meat


You forgot rekard, who suddenly disappeared from the lead last night. Curious, that.

Also suspicious: Zark.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Mister E. Meat » 18 Nov 2013, 06:30:50

I think Hellheart redacted is acting suspicious.

@Furin, I generally don't defend myself against accusations but the game started on a Friday and I was offline at ~4 PM. That's not to say I certainly would have moved my vote to a bandwagon near to EOD but I might have. I was online near the EOD this weekend but totally messed up the timing due to silliness with board time and DST. I can get why you'd want to lynch me - you have 1 singleton vote - but at the same time, I seem to be getting lots and lots of heat from the get go. Were I a wolf, I would have told my buddies to sacrifice me early.

Interesting to me is that we had no maul again last night. Anyone have any speculation?
Last edited by Mister E. Meat on 18 Nov 2013, 16:27:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby sphenodont » 18 Nov 2013, 06:39:17

Mister E. Meat wrote:Interesting to me is that we had no maul again last night. Anyone have any speculation?


To avoid food allergy situations, please be sure to read the nutritional information thoroughly:

Clearasday wrote:Wolves will NOT have a nightkill. Otherwise four people would die per night. And wolves might well have trouble finding anyone to maul what with some of their lovers being human. Wolves may be given a one-time vigilante to compensate for this depending on player count.
[*]No Vampires (to ease twdogs fears)

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby sphenodont » 18 Nov 2013, 07:55:44

Proof
2 tsp yeast
in
2 oz water
for 15 minutes.

Combine in a large mixing bowl
16 oz bread flour
10 oz warm (~105 degree) water
2 oz evaporated milk
10 oz 100% hydration sourdough starter
and add the yeast mixture. Mix until integrated and allow to hydrate for 30 minutes.

After resting, add
0.6 oz sea salt
1 oz oil (vegetable or other neutral oil preferred)

Mix well and then add
8 oz bread flour

Knead the dough for 10 to 15 minutes, until smooth and soft. Spray or lightly coat the dough with oil and allow it to ferment for two hours in a covered container. Divide the dough in two and allow each to rest for 15 minutes before stretching/shaping. Allow dough to proof for an additional 45 minutes before topping. You will want to use a more assertive cheese to match the dough, so scamorza is preferable to mozzarella.

Don't overthink your toppings, and go sparingly! Overloading the crust will sink your efforts!

Bake at 500 degrees for 10 minutes.

A nice salad is the perfect accompaniment to pizza! Remember the Three Rs: Ryvvn, RaveBomb, and radicchio. Pair it with a nice balsamic vinagarette, to offset the richness of your cheese.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Meta4 » 18 Nov 2013, 08:48:35

Since DOM and Okaros were tied yesterday, and DOM was innocent(ish), I think we should string up Okaros today and see what happens.
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby RaveBomb » 18 Nov 2013, 09:20:44

Redacted (was Ryvvn) Why you don't come around anymore?
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Omega » 18 Nov 2013, 09:25:08

Hellheart - late vote on DOM? I needed to vote, didn't want to "throw it away" and sphen had just pushed Okaros into the lead, so I restored the tie.

As for today... Hrmm...

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby dferrantino » 18 Nov 2013, 09:33:30

Okaros gives us the most information here, I think. Possibly rekard.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby FurinMirado » 18 Nov 2013, 09:58:43

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
FurinMirado wrote:I'm looking at the Day1/Day2 alternate bandwagons. Odds are in our favor that one of these is a Wolf:

Mister E. Meat
Hellheart
Okaros

On a hunch I will start with Mister E. Meat


You forgot rekard, who suddenly disappeared from the lead last night. Curious, that.

Also suspicious: Zark.

Not really. Votes made and retracted through the day don't mean as much to me as the final votes. Feel free to convince me otherwise. I'm always looking to improve my skill at this game. But my vote stays on MEM since:

1. It's Day 3 without a wolf kill so heavy analysis is fairly pointless.

2. I have about 30 minutes to spend on this game today.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby rekard » 18 Nov 2013, 10:22:36

I do wonder right now. MEM's ignorance of the rules may clearly sign to a potential of humanity. How could a wolf not know there was no maul. Unless this is an act. But it is seldom to see a wolf declaring ignorance of the game. But Simon has snowed me a bit before with that kind of ignorance. Or Aldax too.

Omega's vote was on a human and late. He wanted his vote to count, but in day 2, how critical is that? I am convinced though that if DOM had talked earlier about him being the backup lover, the story might have been different. Okaros responses yesterday stink, and the fact that Omega served as a bridge stinks a bit more.

Hellheart seems helpful and also to be trying to do an approach he talked about on previous days to the games. Pushy seems wolfy to some, but it is still early to judge.

Zark is apparently a random one. What does he want? Playing the game in a risky fashion, but still unknown to see what to make of his PMs to several folks.

So let's see now, who could fancy a Mister E. Meat vote. I am curious.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Admetus » 18 Nov 2013, 10:46:51

Vote tally:

Mister E. Meat - 2 - FurinMirado, rekard
Ryvvn - 2 - sphenodont, RaveBomb
Okaros - 2 - Meta4, dferrantino
Stigmata - Blindsniper
rekard - Iron Clad Burrito
Hellheart - Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Omega » 18 Nov 2013, 10:55:08

I can always get behind a vote on Mister E. Meat. Though I wonder if he's telling the truth and it was just real life getting in the way.

That being said, Okaros is also an interesting one.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby 7-zark-7 » 18 Nov 2013, 11:21:17

rekard wrote:Zark is apparently a random one. What does he want? Playing the game in a risky fashion, but still unknown to see what to make of his PMs to several folks.


You aren't kidding. You think he's random or weird online, try living with him.

dferrantino wrote:Okaros gives us the most information here, I think. Possibly rekard.


Based on the last two days, I believe one of the following to be either a wolf, a wolf lover, or a sociopath:
Okaros, Rekard, ICB (not a vote, not yet anyway)

And this gets you laid how, exactly?

Look, I'm starting to think I'm lucky with the love I've got, a lover who, I might add, remains safely anonymous

Oh, tell me you didn't hook up on Craigslist? There's casual, and then there's plague-ridden. I just need to know if I need to start bleaching anything

You mean like that "peach fuzz" of yours?

You & I might start trading blows if you keep that up

Kinky - all I've traded are PM's so far

And you call me kinky - I generally keep my PMS to myself

No you don't. I just have learned to keep my mouth shut around that time of month

Uh huh. You want to rewind that last sentence and try again?

Not Really. So I reached out to both ICB and Rekard on day one to discuss non-aggression agreements. ICB was friendly, Rekard less so, but they both agreed. Day 1 passes, ICB then tells me about how Rekard had to go based on threatening PMs he was receiving. The story was Rekard was the wolf-half of a pair of star-crossed lovers who were playing the last two standing game. Said communication likewise included threats against ICB if he moved directly (implications of vengeful lovers). The overall read was that anonymous player / Rekard's Lover had threatened to take his lunch money and string him up in a park or something

Kinky - if this was legit, why would this person reveal Rekard in particular?

I had my doubts too. In fact the way he asked for my help caused my spider sense to start tingling

That might have been an STD... just sayin

ICB asked me to start a bandwagon on Rekard, with the promise he would join later and bring friends. Around 6pm, I get a message from him saying he may not be around at the end of day due to weather problems, and the bandwagon was ~small~... to be frank, the whole thing roughly resembled a Nigerian bank scam.

And you've lost a ~lot~ of money on that last one

You know what? When the son of the deposed king of Nigeria emails you directly, asking for help, you help! His father ran the freaking country! Ok? Besides, you're changing the subject. The Burrito really wanted to know why I backed off Rekard, & asked for a list of all my "circle of trust"

I can see your suspicions, but you & Rekard make such a cute couple. All that tension out in the open, that must have been intense

It is. And although I was willing to pursue to see who hopped on the bandwagon, I'm just not getting a wolf vibe off Rekard at this stage of the game

You've been wrong before

I'll be wrong again - this may be one of those times

But, this kind of activity seems hazardous for a wolf, and pointless for a vanilla human, not to mention too much info for anyone to really have on day 1/2 in a non-seer game. If Rekard (or Rekard's lover) let this kind of intel slip, it's out of character

That's what I thought. Then I considered that ICB might be playing off my historical rivalry with Kahn to not only solicit my help getting a strong player out of the game, but also to get me to reveal my lover

But only a real sociopath would want that

Exactly. Which is why I think the most informative decision is to lynch ICB. If he's vanilla human, I've made a horrible mistake, & we can pursue Rekard (or myself) tomorrow

More in a bit (and if I've misjudged you ICB, I fully expect to hang for it next round).

7z7
"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Mister E. Meat » 18 Nov 2013, 12:18:04

rekard wrote:So let's see now, who could fancy a Mister E. Meat vote. I am curious.

Can't tell if trolling or serious....

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 18 Nov 2013, 12:47:34

Omega wrote:Hellheart - late vote on DOM? I needed to vote, didn't want to "throw it away" and sphen had just pushed Okaros into the lead, so I restored the tie.

As for today... Hrmm...

(( I actually missed sphenodont's vote there because it wasn't colored. I'll make it simpler then: why DOM over rekard? ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 18 Nov 2013, 13:01:58

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:You forgot rekard, who suddenly disappeared from the lead last night. Curious, that.

Also suspicious: Zark.

(( I was looking for confirmation of Zark's confession. It appears like I may have just found it. ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 18 Nov 2013, 13:14:55

FurinMirado wrote:Not really. Votes made and retracted through the day don't mean as much to me as the final votes. Feel free to convince me otherwise. I'm always looking to improve my skill at this game. But my vote stays on MEM since:

1. It's Day 3 without a wolf kill so heavy analysis is fairly pointless.

2. I have about 30 minutes to spend on this game today.

(( I disagree with this. At this point it would not be difficult to sketch a rough map of potential alliances that would probably split the wolves into 2-3 of more than 3 camps with the lovers of at least a couple of them in their camp. You would have no idea who those wolves are, but when we find one it would further illuminate this data. I am absolutely awful with visually separating data into clusters so I have zero intention to do this myself, but if I really wanted to waste 4-5 hours of my time figuring out how to pull it off it could probably be done.

The retractions help more than anything when it comes to potential alliances, as you may see groups of people shift votes in singletons or chunks over the course of the day. Some of those groups will actually not exist, several players will be in the wrong place, but there is immense benefit in knowing which players have been buddying up or banding together.

I also think that the wolf kill has jack shit to do with our ability for analysis. Smart wolf kills involve people that won't implicate wolves, potential seers, and confirmed humans. Outside of the TV game, I've seen little to no analytical gain come out of the vast majority of maul reveals. ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby twdog » 18 Nov 2013, 13:19:19

ICB, telling Zark to start a bandwagon then saying he was "delayed" sounds suspicious to me. Of course, Zark might have just made most of that up. Then there's Okaros of course. More of a gut feeling then anything else.

I'm open to changing my vote, if someone has a better idea.
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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Ryvvn » 18 Nov 2013, 13:29:53

Hellheart wrote:If two players are equally likely to be wolves then you should lynch the one with the least Villager value absent other considerations

Those other considerations always have to come into play in the early game; sure it looks like a lot of the analytical players are being targeted, but Okaros, rekard, and DOM all lasted the majority of last game and are perfectly acceptable as early bandwagons to go this game... yourself included, Hellheart.

So if the choice is between say Okaros, who I believe to be a great player all around, or someone who may not be as "useful" to the villagers but who tends to not get much playtime, I'm voting Okaros (as example) barring any other truly compelling evidence to do otherwise.

Oh, and since he was soooo sure I was a traitor last game, I actually am voting Okaros now :twisted:

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Ryvvn » 18 Nov 2013, 13:31:43

RaveBomb wrote:Ryvvn Why you don't come around anymore?

I've been stopping in when able

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby RaveBomb » 18 Nov 2013, 13:38:30

Ryvvn wrote:
RaveBomb wrote:Ryvvn Why you don't come around anymore?

I've been stopping in when able


I found those candies you left. You DO care after all! So tell me more about this Okaros guy?
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If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 18 Nov 2013, 13:41:10

Ryvvn wrote:
Hellheart wrote:If two players are equally likely to be wolves then you should lynch the one with the least Villager value absent other considerations

Those other considerations always have to come into play in the early game; sure it looks like a lot of the analytical players are being targeted, but Okaros, rekard, and DOM all lasted the majority of last game and are perfectly acceptable as early bandwagons to go this game... yourself included, Hellheart.

(( Which is why I've done my best to push forward as a wolf-hunter and a net benefit to the Village, because if the way I play the game encourages other players to post more about the game and give more reads, then it's worth keeping me around for that reason alone. I'm pushing forward so heavily precisely because I almost died on Day 1; I consider myself on borrowed time where I have a handful of days to prove why I shouldn't be lynched.

I disagree with Zark's assertion that the PM exchange with ICB means he's the Sociopath, but absent other information it looks mighty suspicious. But not as suspicious as Okaros ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby rekard » 18 Nov 2013, 13:54:47

That's quite a tale Zark. Although peculiar since the only ones I spoke with on Day 1 were Zark and my lover. Still I fail to understand what would ICB trying to accomplish if he did what you claim. Specially since in this tale there is still an unknown character: The threatener. Because this one seems to be the source of all these lies and rumors. Were you told of this person Zark?

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Okaros » 18 Nov 2013, 13:55:30

Me again? I'm flattered, but haven't we had this dance already? Not that I mind the attention, of course.

The finger-pointing yesterday was clearly done to save rekard from lynch threat. After I turn up dead and human, you can have a nice time looking at the people voting for me/DOM yesterday for wolves. You can also include rekard in the bunch, given the size and speed of the bus I was thrown under.

You could, of course do that *without* killing me and my lover. That'd be my preference. But it seems like a number of you won't be convinced otherwise. So be it. If you're having second thoughts, I would recommend you all ask yourselves:
If Okaros is a wolf, what does he possibly gain from his Day Two vote on rekard?
(I've already answered the human version of that question)


Regarding Hellheart:
While his aggressive accusations against me mark him as a likely human (I would guess he's probably *not* going so meta as to make a blatantly obvious wolf-play by falsely accusing a human), they strike me as being something ideally suited for the human half of a human/wolf relationship. He legitimately doesn't know I'm human (although my vote makes no sense if I'm wolf), but he's fine with that because by steering the vote for multiple days in a row he keeps his lover (rekard? someone else?) out of threat and helps thin out the rest of the populace a bit, something that has to happen for a Lovers victory to be at all viable. If his furry partner is playing along, you might even see Hellheart provide some conveniently-accurate wolf targets in the next week or so to help balance the scales. This is speculation based on his actions, not hard evidence, but it should be something being considered going forward. Any human/wolf pairs are going to potentially be sociopathic, the human halves much more so than the wolves since they don't have any other path to victory.


Finally, for the record: I wasn't included in any PMs or conversations about rekard. It wasn't even a discussion with my lover. So whatever conspiracy is going around I'm not a part of it, nor am I acting in response to it.


I'll vote when I'm home from work in a couple of hours, although it's likely going to be a forced self-defense vote.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Admetus » 18 Nov 2013, 13:57:10

Okaros - 6 - Meta4, dferrantino, twdog, Ryvvn, RaveBomb, Hellheart
Mister E. Meat - 2 - FurinMirado, rekard
Ryvvn - sphenodont
Stigmata - Blindsniper
rekard - Iron Clad Burrito
Hellheart - Mister E. Meat
Iron Clad Burrito - 7-zark-7
7-zark-7 - Admetus


I'd like to vote Okaros for analysis reasons as well, but the huge lead he has right now is absurd. It's not the idea that my vote has to "matter" that pushes me away, but rather the idea that a one-sided landslide is not a useful result.

I'm surprised that Zark's reveal hasn't gotten more discussion time. Just from looking at the length and detail, it's pretty clear that he's spent a while thinking about doing that. I've talked about it behind the scenes with those that are willing to offer an opinion, and with all the indications I can gather, I wouldn't be surprised if both Zark and ICB were wolves. I don't have time to wait for ICB's reply, my Monday nights are really busy. I vote 7-zark-7.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby rekard » 18 Nov 2013, 13:58:41

Ah and Hellheart I think Furin meant Day 3 without a dead wolf.

Also a maul still helps analyze the days, because remember deductions are not only to figure out who is more wolfy, but also who is more humanish. Dead players help one of these two no matter how smart the wolves try to be. If the players keep more than 2 wagons in the initial days, the maul can reveal even more.

By the way, are we going on a 2 big wagon day? Correct that.

One big wagon so early? That just helps the wolves too much.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby rekard » 18 Nov 2013, 14:08:20

Okaros wrote:Me again? I'm flattered, but haven't we had this dance already? Not that I mind the attention, of course.

The finger-pointing yesterday was clearly done to save rekard from lynch threat. After I turn up dead and human, you can have a nice time looking at the people voting for me/DOM yesterday for wolves. You can also include rekard in the bunch, given the size and speed of the bus I was thrown under.

You could, of course do that *without* killing me and my lover. That'd be my preference. But it seems like a number of you won't be convinced otherwise. So be it. If you're having second thoughts, I would recommend you all ask yourselves:
If Okaros is a wolf, what does he possibly gain from his Day Two vote on rekard?
(I've already answered the human version of that question)


Regarding Hellheart:
While his aggressive accusations against me mark him as a likely human (I would guess he's probably *not* going so meta as to make a blatantly obvious wolf-play by falsely accusing a human), they strike me as being something ideally suited for the human half of a human/wolf relationship. He legitimately doesn't know I'm human (although my vote makes no sense if I'm wolf), but he's fine with that because by steering the vote for multiple days in a row he keeps his lover (rekard? someone else?) out of threat and helps thin out the rest of the populace a bit, something that has to happen for a Lovers victory to be at all viable. If his furry partner is playing along, you might even see Hellheart provide some conveniently-accurate wolf targets in the next week or so to help balance the scales. This is speculation based on his actions, not hard evidence, but it should be something being considered going forward. Any human/wolf pairs are going to potentially be sociopathic, the human halves much more so than the wolves since they don't have any other path to victory.


Finally, for the record: I wasn't included in any PMs or conversations about rekard. It wasn't even a discussion with my lover. So whatever conspiracy is going around I'm not a part of it, nor am I acting in response to it.


I'll vote when I'm home from work in a couple of hours, although it's likely going to be a forced self-defense vote.


I think it was more your response to Hellheart's accusation that put you on the map. He was aggressive yet you responded in a snarky way and changing your vote. If you had nothing to hide, then why change the vote? Your original vote was acceptable, wrong, but acceptable. Mortus did the same and he's not on the plank. Though people still vote Mortus cuz Mortus. But I digress.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Okaros » 18 Nov 2013, 14:23:59

rekard wrote:I think it was more your response to Hellheart's accusation that put you on the map. He was aggressive yet you responded in a snarky way and changing your vote. If you had nothing to hide, then why change the vote? Your original vote was acceptable, wrong, but acceptable. Mortus did the same and he's not on the plank. Though people still vote Mortus cuz Mortus. But I digress.


I was returning the attitude he was delivering. Declaring that I'm a wolf and then ordering me to explain myself or die? On Day Two? Yeah, you get snark and sarcasm from me for that.

(And for the record post-death, that's true regardless of which team I'm playing for.)
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby stigmata » 18 Nov 2013, 15:13:54

I think I would like to try and put a pressure on Okaros. I normally feel a little wary of rekard's analysis, but he's on the right track today.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Mortus » 18 Nov 2013, 15:42:26

Looks like Okaros is the deal of the day.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Mister E. Meat » 18 Nov 2013, 15:55:54

Ok, maybe I'm just a space cadet here but why Okaros? If anything, I'm more inclined to follow 7z7's lead on ICB.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 18 Nov 2013, 16:10:44

(( I'm still pushing Okaros because I detailed to him last night why I felt he was a wolf and pointed out that he'd top the votes today since DOM turned up human/human. I told him that he had a whole day to redeem himself by finding another player who could be a wolf and building a compelling case as to why that player is a wolf. He has not done this, even though today in particular unearthed at least a couple players that he could have pushed instead. He is playing the victim card, which you just cannot do after making the Day 2 vote he did. That vote was going to get him heat, and when you get heat for that vote as a human you can't just roll over and die when you get attacked for it.

If Okaros is a human and playing this way, then he's just handing me his head and telling all of you to kill rekard or me for it. Apparently I'm supposed to magically know that he's a human and not a wolf, when in reality I cannot possibly know whether he's a human or a wolf. I just know that, based on what happened yesterday and today, I believe he's far more likely to be a wolf than a human.

The case for Okaros being a wolf

#1: He makes a poorly-timed, unreasoned vote to create 4-3 main wagons with 1-vote alternatives
This is, in and of itself, not necessarily a wolfy move. If he really thought that rekard was a wolf this vote makes total sense, but because it was made without a reason it just felt ridiculously wolfy to me. So I pushed him for a reason because I feel that without a reason this is very likely to be a vote from a wolf. Okaros is a solid player, and if he's going to make a vote absent a reason I do not think he'd use it to break a tie in this position.

#2: The reasoning he provides when accused does not match the vote
This is when rekard votes for him, although that may have been more because of the vote change that happened in the same post. His stated reason for the vote was to reinforce an existing bandwagon to create a more useful voting record, because a bandwagon of 3 or 4 doesn't mean much. On its face it makes sense, but on reflection his vote does the complete opposite. If nothing happened in the thread after his vote, the expected next vote ties the wagons at 4-4 with 1 vote on every other wagon. At this point, it takes incredible effort - like my pushing Okaros as a wolf - to bring any other player anywhere close to those wagons. This happened all the time in the Discworld game, and we were left with a lot of days where there were 1 or 2 bandwagons and the wolves used that to hide from voting analysis for virtually the entire game.

In other words, his vote hurts voting analysis instead of helping it. The correct voting analysis-friendly vote is to drop a second vote on a singleton, because the expected next vote will tie that player with the two leading wagons at 3 votes. This situation generally creates a lot more voting and a lot more movement. As it was, we only have a voting record because I pushed Okaros hard enough to create a third wagon with a lot more momentum. The difference between this wagon and the other two is that at least my wagon had current game-related reasons for being up there, which is why it gained momentum so quickly.

#3: He pouts and simpers and demands a revenge kill when he dies
This can come from a human or a wolf. But a wolf does this because it gives him a chance to escape lynching without having to mention any other player by name. He can avoid inadvertantly clearing other players without looking like he's totally given up.

Think of it this way: if Okaros is a human, why isn't he trying to find out who's really pushing things? If he believes that I have a wolfy lover that I'm trying to protect, why would it be rekard, whom I would never mention by name so often if he's the person I'm trying to protect? Why isn't he trying to figure out if there's another wolf that just escaped other people's notice? There's at least 4 other wolves out there, and you're telling me that he has no idea who those wolves might be?

He's going to die today, why is he not doing everything he can to help out the village before he dies, knowing that when he dies he'll be revealed as human and so everything he said before he died will gain a ton of weight? ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Rictus » 18 Nov 2013, 16:18:33

stigmata wrote:I think I would like to try and put a pressure on Okaros. I normally feel a little wary of rekard's analysis, but he's on the right track today.



Wow what a bold vote when Okaros is the run away bandwagon. He's got at least a half-dozen votes on him, which means to me that he's human and his lover is too.

As of yesterday I was willing to vote for Okaros, still am. But a super bandwagon like this? Screw that. I'll go with a second option.

Iron Clad Burrito to see what happens.
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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 18 Nov 2013, 16:26:48

Rictus wrote:
stigmata wrote:I think I would like to try and put a pressure on Okaros. I normally feel a little wary of rekard's analysis, but he's on the right track today.



Wow what a bold vote when Okaros is the run away bandwagon. He's got at least a half-dozen votes on him, which means to me that he's human and his lover is too.

As of yesterday I was willing to vote for Okaros, still am. But a super bandwagon like this? Screw that. I'll go with a second option.

Iron Clad Burrito to see what happens.

(( This reasoning is absurd. It's true with the Smirker Super-Wagon of something like 13 votes, but after DOM reveals as dual-human Okaros was going to be the top wagon unless he personally attempted to clear himself. If Okaros is a wolf here the other wolves are not going to try to clear him because they couldn't possibly save him, so all their resistance will do is expose them as fellow wolves. A bandwagon of this size means nothing, not to mention that there was more than enough resistance to this bandwagon yesterday to blow your theory to bits. ))

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Ryvvn » 18 Nov 2013, 16:29:03

Here's how I see it:

Current Tally wrote:Okaros (8) -- Meta4, dferr, twdog, Ryvvn, Rave, Hellheart, Stigmata, Mortus
Iron Clad Burrito (3) -- Zark, Rictus, MEM
Mister E. Meat (2) -- Furin, rekard
Ryvvn (1) -- spheno
Stigmata (1) -- Blind
rekard (1) -- ICB
7-zark-7 (1) -- Admetus

YET TO VOTE: Griffy, Okaros, Omega, Wasabi


I'm also rather surprised Hellheart isn't letting out the Macho Madness on this runaway wagon, isn't this the thing he usually rails against (suspicions on the accused or not)?


(edited for MEM's downvote)
Last edited by Ryvvn on 18 Nov 2013, 16:31:43, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Mister E. Meat » 18 Nov 2013, 16:29:35

I don't think I agree with your* reasoning, I think you're a wolf and I'm sad that it seems that people are sheeping after you. I think that ICB is a good choice based on that reveal from 7z7.


*Your being Hellheart, not Ryvvn who posted in between.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby Hellheart » 18 Nov 2013, 16:33:43

(( I rail against votes without reasoning. I do not rail against runaway bandwagons, that's what rekard does. I'm fine with runaway bandwagons if they make sense, and I've provided plenty of reason for this one.

I'm ambivalent about an ICB wagon. That'd be the 4th analytical player taken out in 4 days, based on hearsay from a single player. I don't think Zark is lying, but I don't think that's enough to justify killing ICB, especially if ICB ends up being human-human because you know there's going to be a big push for rekard after that. There may be other reasons that I haven't seen, though.

Although I must say, this is fantastic fodder for creating an alliance map.

-----

Nobody has to sheep after me, ever. You can provide your own cases, your own reasoning. You can convince me otherwise, or convince me that someone looks more like a wolf. But you have to try. You can't sit on the sidelines and soft-push players and wait for them to eventually die and go "oh look I was right! One of the 4 players I kind of pushed was a wolf!"

Pick a wolf, make a strong case, push the wolf. If you do it against me I'll be more than happy to race you by finding a better wolf, because I'm not a wolf despite how aggressive I've been. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 18 Nov 2013, 16:35:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 3 - His lover's die Time after Time

Postby rekard » 18 Nov 2013, 16:34:49

Even though Okaros has been erratic with his arguments, this size of bandwagon doesn't jive well.

This wagon has grown too quickly for my tastes although Okaros doesn't seem humany, it's very likely there are various wolves are in that wagon.


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