Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby sphenodont » 21 Nov 2013, 15:45:11

Hellheart wrote:
Meta4 wrote:Having had a chance to cool off and think rationally about the game for a moment, I do have to admit that it is highly unlikely Hellheart is a wolf. He's just the worst human ever.

(( PLEASE tell me this comes with a trophy ))


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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Ryvvn » 21 Nov 2013, 15:52:18

Think this is current:
Spotsavers wrote:Meta4 (4) -- Admetus, Hellheart, stigmata, MEM
Griffypoo (4) -- Furin, Meta4, Zark, Wasabi
FurinMirado (3) -- ICB, Blind, Ryvvn
Hellheart (2) -- Rave, Mortus

YET TO VOTE: dferr, Griffy, spheno

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Hellheart » 21 Nov 2013, 15:54:39

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Griffypoo wrote:((On an unrelated note, would it be at all possible to make the current game main thread viewable to the public? For some reason I can still hit the site from work, I just can't log in, which stops me from being able to at least keep up with things during the day.))

PM omega, since he's dead it's easy for him

(( ZING! ))

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby sphenodont » 21 Nov 2013, 16:01:34

Griffypoo. Nothing personal, but maybe HH will be less excitable without someone to jabber with.

(Not my ideal choice, but I'm less convinced of the alternates.)

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Griffypoo » 21 Nov 2013, 16:01:56

Well I guess that vote makes my choice EASY, HUH

META4, I'M CALLIN' YOU OUT BECAUSE I'M NOT READY TO GIVE UP THE BELT JUST YET and it is time for ONE OF US to go down in a BLAZE OF GLORY

RRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGH

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Meta4 » 21 Nov 2013, 16:04:40

Griffypoo wrote:META4, I'M CALLIN' YOU OUT BECAUSE I'M NOT READY TO GIVE UP THE BELT JUST YET and it is time for ONE OF US to go down in a BLAZE OF GLORY


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"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Ryvvn » 21 Nov 2013, 16:05:06

I wonder if dferr will actually come back today to log a vote....

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Blindsniper83 » 21 Nov 2013, 16:05:59

FurinMirado wrote:FWIW, My list of mostly likely wolves:

Griffypoo
Ravebomb
Stigmata OR Ryvvn (if one is a Wolf then the other is likely Human)
Blindsniper OR dferrantino OR Wasabi (one of the wolves may have failed to vote yesterday)

Switching my vote to Griffypoo for now. He seems more likely than Ryvvn to me. Or I'm just petty revenge-voting. One of those.

i told you on page 1 why i missed my yesterday vote, cant vote if im not home or access to my cell
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Wasabi » 21 Nov 2013, 16:06:10

Some of this stems from a PM conversation I never completed yesterday, and I thought I'd put this in the public domain so that some of you can check my math. I actually ended up putting my numbers into a web tool :http://www.math.uah.edu/stat/applets/BallUrnExperiment.html

This will take a while to compose, and I'm sure the thread will blur by while I'm writing but here goes:

16 players remain. From a purely statistical standpoint, we have 4 (W)olves, 1 (S)corned, and 11 (H)umans.

Assuming that Hellheart is really a Bigamist (and I don't think anyone is claiming he isn't at this point), we've got the following scenarios:

(1) Hellheart is Human
The odds that he's human are 11/15, or 73.33%
The odds that he's got two human lovers are 49.5%
The odds that he's got 1 human lover and 1 wolf are 44%
The odds that he's got 2 wolf lovers are 6.6%

(2) HellHeart is a wolf
The odds that he's a wolf are 4/15, or 26.67%
The odds that he's got two human lovers are 60.4%
The odds that he's got 1 human lover and 1 wolf are 36.3%
The odds that he's got 2 wolf lovers are 3.3%

So we hit three humans (0.7333 * 0.495) = 36.28% of the time.
We hit one wolf (0.7333 * 0.44) + (0.2667 * 0.604) = 48.37%
We hit two wolves (0.7333 * .066) + (0.2667 * 0.363) = 14.52%
We hit three wolves (0.2667 * 0.033) = 0.82%

Yikes. I wasn't actually expecting to have the odds be so high that we'd take out at least one wolf. Maybe the Hellheart wagon really is worthwhile.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby RaveBomb » 21 Nov 2013, 16:08:08

Ryvvn wrote:Think this is current:
Spotsavers wrote:Meta4 (5) -- Admetus, Hellheart, stigmata, MEM, Griffy
Griffypoo (5) -- Furin, Meta4, Zark, Wasabi, sphenodont
FurinMirado (4) -- ICB, Blind, Ryvvn, Rave
Hellheart (1) -- Mortus

YET TO VOTE: dferr


FurinMirado because we need a third horse in this race, and that's the only horse I can find.
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Griffypoo » 21 Nov 2013, 16:09:58

RaveBomb wrote:Griffypoo (5) -- Furin, Meta4, Zark, Wasabi, meta4

YET TO VOTE: dferr, Griffy


YOU HAD BETTER CHECK YOURSELF BEFORE YOU RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRWRECK YOURSELF

EDIT: NEVERMIND, GUESS YOU FIXED IT
Last edited by Griffypoo on 21 Nov 2013, 16:14:20, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Blindsniper83 » 21 Nov 2013, 16:10:37

on a side note everybody is making backdoor games why no love for zoidberg, ive only got 2 pm's from my lover, im lonely
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby RaveBomb » 21 Nov 2013, 16:13:20

Griffypoo wrote:
RaveBomb wrote:Griffypoo (5) -- Furin, Meta4, Zark, Wasabi, meta4

YET TO VOTE: dferr, Griffy


YOU HAD BETTER CHECK YOURSELF BEFORE YOU RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRWRECK YOURSELF


If you would GET SOME GLASSES and LOOK AT THE POST you'll see that EVERY THING is CORRECT.
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby stigmata » 21 Nov 2013, 16:14:07

Blindsniper83 wrote:on a side note everybody is making backdoor games why no love for zoidberg, ive only got 2 pm's from my lover, im lonely


Sorry, I know what your backdoor is like and I want to keep my hands clean.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Griffypoo » 21 Nov 2013, 16:16:19

RaveBomb wrote:If you would GET SOME GLASSES and LOOK AT THE POST you'll see that EVERY THING is CORRECT.


Well would you look at that, we've got ourselves a little Ultimate Warrior hopeful and

MY
VISION
IS
PERFECT

*SNRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRK*

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby RaveBomb » 21 Nov 2013, 16:17:22

Griffypoo wrote:
RaveBomb wrote:If you would GET SOME GLASSES and LOOK AT THE POST you'll see that EVERY THING is CORRECT.


Well would you look at that, we've got ourselves a little Ultimate Warrior hopeful and

MY
VISION
IS
PERFECT

*SNRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRK*


If only you could SEE WHAT'S IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE!
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Griffypoo » 21 Nov 2013, 16:20:31

RaveBomb wrote:
If only you could SEE WHAT'S IN FRONT OF YOUR FACE!


LIKE HELL I'LL TAKE THIS SLANDER FROM SOME TWO BIT PUNK WITH NEITHER THE FEROCITY NOR THE OPPOSABLE THUMBS REQUIRED TO BODY SLAM A GROWN MAN

RRRRRRRRRRRRRRRAAAGHGAAAAAAAAAAAAA

YOU WILL EAT YOUR WORDS QUADRUPED

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby RaveBomb » 21 Nov 2013, 16:27:12

You think your DISPOSABLE THUMBS are what give you ADVANTAGE? You can't even SPELL IT, let alone SLAM IT. You ever hear of HORSE POWER? Nobody ever heard of MONKEY POWER.

To you I say GET BUCKED!

Eat HORSE APPLES MONKEY BOY!
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Hellheart » 21 Nov 2013, 16:45:11

Wasabi wrote:Yikes. I wasn't actually expecting to have the odds be so high that we'd take out at least one wolf. Maybe the Hellheart wagon really is worthwhile.

If I'm a human - which I am - it's 49.5% chance of two human, 44% chance of human/wolf, 6% chance of wolf.

Which means that if you lynch sphenodont tomorrow, you come out behind roughly half of the time, you break even most of the rest, and you come out ahead once every 16 games.

EDIT: I know that a wolf is worth more than a human, but unless you want to argue that sphenodont is a wolf I'll take a known living human over a potential dead wolf any day.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Griffypoo » 21 Nov 2013, 16:50:56

RaveBomb wrote:You think your DISPOSABLE THUMBS are what give you ADVANTAGE? You can't even SPELL IT, let alone SLAM IT. You ever hear of HORSE POWER? Nobody ever heard of MONKEY POWER.

To you I say GET BUCKED!

Eat HORSE APPLES MONKEY BOY!


Alright you're getting the fury but in order to buck someone they'd have to of course be RIDING YOU

WE'LL WORK ON THE TRASH TALK I GUESS but that's better than expected from A HORSE

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Admetus » 21 Nov 2013, 16:52:02

Some fishy PM games going on that I no likely. Unfortunately I'm at rehearsal and can't be verbose until "tomorrow".

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Hellheart » 21 Nov 2013, 16:53:16

Well, since I'm almost certainly on my way out, one final point:

My wolf case against Ryvvn still stands. I still think he's a wolf. We did not "kiss and make up," as you'll see in the dead thread, and I think he still does what he did as a wolf. If he did all this as a human I want to know as soon as possible because I want the huge rush of anger to end sometime before the next game starts.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Wasabi » 21 Nov 2013, 16:55:19

Hellheart wrote:
Wasabi wrote:Yikes. I wasn't actually expecting to have the odds be so high that we'd take out at least one wolf. Maybe the Hellheart wagon really is worthwhile.

If I'm a human - which I am - it's 49.5% chance of two human, 44% chance of human/wolf, 6% chance of wolf.

Which means that if you lynch sphenodont tomorrow, you come out behind roughly half of the time, you break even most of the rest, and you come out ahead once every 16 games.

EDIT: I know that a wolf is worth more than a human, but unless you want to argue that sphenodont is a wolf I'll take a known living human over a potential dead wolf any day.


Well, don't forget that you're gone regardless, thanks to our friendly neighborhood Scorned lover. Lynching you gives us at worst a 50/50 shot of taking out a wolf in the bargain.

Edit: I think that the possibility of a vengeful lover in the equation sours things a bit for the humans, too.
Last edited by Wasabi on 21 Nov 2013, 16:57:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Ryvvn » 21 Nov 2013, 16:56:14

Okay, guys, I think it's time to reveal the special role I made up for this game, it's so secret special sauce that even CAD doesn't know about it:
Bad Lover wrote:You are the Bad Lover. Rumors have spread far and wide and your reputation precedes you and your awful, uncomfortable style and total lack of skill; as such, no one would even think of touching you with a ten-foot pole, and the only way you'll ever find love is to chase after someone who appears to be as uncouth as your pitiful self.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Hellheart » 21 Nov 2013, 16:58:12

Ryvvn wrote:Okay, guys, I think it's time to reveal the special role I made up for this game, it's so secret special sauce that even CAD doesn't know about it:
Bad Lover wrote:You are the Bad Lover. Rumors have spread far and wide and your reputation precedes you and your awful, uncomfortable style and total lack of skill; as such, no one would even think of touching you with a ten-foot pole, and the only way you'll ever find love is to chase after someone who appears to be as uncouth as your pitiful self.

Adorable!

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Ryvvn » 21 Nov 2013, 16:59:28

Hellheart wrote:Adorable!

For what it's worth, I had that post ready to go before you reminded everyone that you're going to be super mad at me... macho mad even.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Hellheart » 21 Nov 2013, 17:00:20

Nah, you're still a wolf so it'll all be good in the end.

I have faith in my reads. Just like you did. Until you were wrong.

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Re: Day 6 - You Can't Hurry Love

Postby Clearasday » 21 Nov 2013, 17:01:01

I dub thee, Man and Wife. You may now Lock the bride.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.


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