Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Feb 2014, 11:35:39

Ryvvn wrote:Some of you, those voting no sheriff (not a vote), are the worst kind of gamblers. It seems generally well advised for a vig to never take an early game shot because the odds are against hitting a wolf; however, when those same kind of odds flip to favor human gain ...

I don't think that's an accurate statement. The small amount of gain we would now get from a Villager Sheriff is clearly less than the potential damage that a Wolf Sheriff could inflict, so if you think that ratio is less than the likelihood of a Wolf getting elected as Sheriff, then it's very reasonable to vote "No Sheriff."

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Clearasday » 01 Feb 2014, 11:52:51

Oh God. Its happening again. May I remind people of the Sanitarium game, where you decided to vote Nitestorm in as sheriff because we thought having someone 'unpredictable' would be a good idea? Which team won that game again?

I'd usually put myself forward as a crazy candidate but this time I'm going to take a new approach. I'll try being the power behind the throne. So instead, I'm placing myself and my claws at Rekard's disposal as his campaign manager.

For years I've roamed the world looking for someone moldable enough to be my puppet in office. And I think I've finally found someone. I'm voting Rekard for sheriff. Why you ask? Because his name is 60%* shorter than Nitestorms, which makes it much easier for you to type and then bold. And heck, 2 in 3 people prefer him to the regular unbranded Rekard's that you find in town's these days.

So if you're lost and confused and all out of love, and if you know I was right, believing for so long, then vote REKARD, TODAY.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Feb 2014, 11:59:45

I'll switch back to Admetus if he becomes viable, but for now I think rekard is the best candidate.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 01 Feb 2014, 14:21:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Feb 2014, 12:03:09

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Commentary: Not to mention that if everyone else voted "no sheriff," Ravebomb would vote for himself.

"No Sheriff" doesn't have to be unanimous-- it's a candidate just like any other, and simply needs a plurality to "win".

Query: When nobody else wanted to be sheriff, was the job not given to the first viable meatbag to volunteer?

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby stigmata » 01 Feb 2014, 13:47:54

Good morning, everyone! Does anybody smell smoke?

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Admetus » 01 Feb 2014, 14:08:57

Ryvvn wrote:Some of you, those voting no sheriff (not a vote), are the worst kind of gamblers. It seems generally well advised for a vig to never take an early game shot because the odds are against hitting a wolf; however, when those same kind of odds flip to favor human gain, still some of you don't want to take the chance on it?!

I find it really funny that we can never agree. Why is that? Are you actually my evil twin?

What's wrong with waiting one day on the Sheriff, after the Cupid is set, then having the guaranteed human hunter come forward and we have a 100% chance of nominating a human sheriff that the wolves can't maul?

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Feb 2014, 14:20:27

Admetus wrote:What's wrong with waiting one day on the Sheriff, after the Cupid is set, then having the guaranteed human hunter come forward and we have a 100% chance of nominating a human sheriff that the wolves can't maul?

Yeah, okay, that makes a lot of sense.

I think Admetus just shot down the Sheriff (for Day 0 anyway): No Sheriff

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ryvvn » 01 Feb 2014, 14:39:38

Admetus wrote:I find it really funny that we can never agree. Why is that? Are you actually my evil twin??

Do you see this mustache?!

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Rictus » 01 Feb 2014, 14:57:17

Admetus wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Some of you, those voting no sheriff (not a vote), are the worst kind of gamblers. It seems generally well advised for a vig to never take an early game shot because the odds are against hitting a wolf; however, when those same kind of odds flip to favor human gain, still some of you don't want to take the chance on it?!

I find it really funny that we can never agree. Why is that? Are you actually my evil twin?

What's wrong with waiting one day on the Sheriff, after the Cupid is set, then having the guaranteed human hunter come forward and we have a 100% chance of nominating a human sheriff that the wolves can't maul?



Admetus makes more sense over Ryvvn. Besides, I like it when we 'break' the game by going in an odd direction. redacted:No Sheriff.

Besides I think the vig should always shoot early. He's going to kill a human regardless, and it reduces his chance of killing the seer.



Edit: But Ryvvn gets points for the rockin' mustache.
Last edited by Rictus on 01 Feb 2014, 20:10:56, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby rekard » 01 Feb 2014, 15:49:48

Admetus wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Some of you, those voting no sheriff (not a vote), are the worst kind of gamblers. It seems generally well advised for a vig to never take an early game shot because the odds are against hitting a wolf; however, when those same kind of odds flip to favor human gain, still some of you don't want to take the chance on it?!

I find it really funny that we can never agree. Why is that? Are you actually my evil twin?

What's wrong with waiting one day on the Sheriff, after the Cupid is set, then having the guaranteed human hunter come forward and we have a 100% chance of nominating a human sheriff that the wolves can't maul?


Being a human hunter doesn't mean he will make correct decisions when voting or breaking ties. Also you don't know if the hunter will actually claim in the open and agree with your approach. The hunter has a great potential to help by an accurate shot and him claiming just takes that away. The mere existence of the hidden hunter is a threat to thecwolves. Yes, we could have an "immortal" human but it also helps the wolves as they have an easier time doing a maul. It also takes away the fear of being shot by a vigilante.

That the sheriff is confirmed human also does not mean his votes will be effective if they cast it on an unimportant wagon or worse , the votes can save a wolf. I would say that having a hunter claiming out he is a hunter helps the wolves more than having a 100% human sheriff helps the humans.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Feb 2014, 16:06:32

rekard wrote:
Admetus wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Some of you, those voting no sheriff (not a vote), are the worst kind of gamblers. It seems generally well advised for a vig to never take an early game shot because the odds are against hitting a wolf; however, when those same kind of odds flip to favor human gain, still some of you don't want to take the chance on it?!

I find it really funny that we can never agree. Why is that? Are you actually my evil twin?

What's wrong with waiting one day on the Sheriff, after the Cupid is set, then having the guaranteed human hunter come forward and we have a 100% chance of nominating a human sheriff that the wolves can't maul?


Being a human hunter doesn't mean he will make correct decisions when voting or breaking ties. Also you don't know if the hunter will actually claim in the open and agree with your approach. The hunter has a great potential to help by an accurate shot and him claiming just takes that away. The mere existence of the hidden hunter is a threat to thecwolves. Yes, we could have an "immortal" human but it also helps the wolves as they have an easier time doing a maul. It also takes away the fear of being shot by a vigilante.

That the sheriff is confirmed human also does not mean his votes will be effective if they cast it on an unimportant wagon or worse , the votes can save a wolf. I would say that having a hunter claiming out he is a hunter helps the wolves more than having a 100% human sheriff helps the humans.

(( I'm on record for agreeing with this, and while I think there are merits for both approaches, I feel that the major drawback of a hidden hunter - his getting mauled is based on sheer chance - is somewhat defrayed because we'll be able to color an additional player blue in the voting record blue several days into the game even if he's forced to roleclaim to avoid being lynched. Also, keep in mind that the vote for the sheriff is another entry in the voting record. If the hunter reveals himself, we are robbing ourselves of information that we would have otherwise obtained.

I personally think that we should vote "no sheriff" and let the Hunter decide what to do on Day 1. If he doesn't claim, then we elect the sheriff via a normal vote.

We can also never elect a sheriff. That has its own merits and drawbacks. ))

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Smirker » 01 Feb 2014, 16:34:12

Admetus wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Some of you, those voting no sheriff (not a vote), are the worst kind of gamblers. It seems generally well advised for a vig to never take an early game shot because the odds are against hitting a wolf; however, when those same kind of odds flip to favor human gain, still some of you don't want to take the chance on it?!

I find it really funny that we can never agree. Why is that? Are you actually my evil twin?

What's wrong with waiting one day on the Sheriff, after the Cupid is set, then having the guaranteed human hunter come forward and we have a 100% chance of nominating a human sheriff that the wolves can't maul?

I have to agree, this does seem a good idea.

No Sheriff.

p.s. Looking for EOD; to make sure I don't miss a cut-off.

[I am so discouraged, been trying to put together a house project for the wife (the cat technically, but in my terms it will make my wife happy.. so....) and I've run into a major damn snag because of the materials she decided on. ]

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Feb 2014, 17:09:56

Smirker wrote:[I am so discouraged, been trying to put together a house project for the wife (the cat technically, but in my terms it will make my wife happy.. so....) and I've run into a major damn snag because of the materials she decided on. ]

Astonished Query: You let the cat choose the materials for its house project?

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby rekard » 01 Feb 2014, 17:41:09

Hellheart wrote:
rekard wrote:
Admetus wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Some of you, those voting no sheriff (not a vote), are the worst kind of gamblers. It seems generally well advised for a vig to never take an early game shot because the odds are against hitting a wolf; however, when those same kind of odds flip to favor human gain, still some of you don't want to take the chance on it?!

I find it really funny that we can never agree. Why is that? Are you actually my evil twin?

What's wrong with waiting one day on the Sheriff, after the Cupid is set, then having the guaranteed human hunter come forward and we have a 100% chance of nominating a human sheriff that the wolves can't maul?


Being a human hunter doesn't mean he will make correct decisions when voting or breaking ties. Also you don't know if the hunter will actually claim in the open and agree with your approach. The hunter has a great potential to help by an accurate shot and him claiming just takes that away. The mere existence of the hidden hunter is a threat to thecwolves. Yes, we could have an "immortal" human but it also helps the wolves as they have an easier time doing a maul. It also takes away the fear of being shot by a vigilante.

That the sheriff is confirmed human also does not mean his votes will be effective if they cast it on an unimportant wagon or worse , the votes can save a wolf. I would say that having a hunter claiming out he is a hunter helps the wolves more than having a 100% human sheriff helps the humans.

(( I'm on record for agreeing with this, and while I think there are merits for both approaches, I feel that the major drawback of a hidden hunter - his getting mauled is based on sheer chance - is somewhat defrayed because we'll be able to color an additional player blue in the voting record blue several days into the game even if he's forced to roleclaim to avoid being lynched. Also, keep in mind that the vote for the sheriff is another entry in the voting record. If the hunter reveals himself, we are robbing ourselves of information that we would have otherwise obtained.

I personally think that we should vote "no sheriff" and let the Hunter decide what to do on Day 1. If he doesn't claim, then we elect the sheriff via a normal vote.

We can also never elect a sheriff. That has its own merits and drawbacks. ))


Actually allowing the vote for No Sheriff is a flaw of the game I would say. If people are that fearful of the sheriff's ability, then what everybody should do is just vote No Sheriff everyday so we don't have to deal with that role. It would be a win win for everybody since humans don't run the risk of giving the role to a wolf and wolves wouldn't expose themselves to vote analysis from the sheriff vote. Hence, the point of the role can be easily turned moot. Why should we vote for the sheriff if it brings more pains than benefits in the end?

Thinking about it voting No Sheriff is better for the wolves since they are not revealing information from their votes.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Admetus » 01 Feb 2014, 18:36:54

rekard wrote:Being a human hunter doesn't mean he will make correct decisions when voting or breaking ties. Also you don't know if the hunter will actually claim in the open and agree with your approach. The hunter has a great potential to help by an accurate shot and him claiming just takes that away. The mere existence of the hidden hunter is a threat to thecwolves. Yes, we could have an "immortal" human but it also helps the wolves as they have an easier time doing a maul. It also takes away the fear of being shot by a vigilante.

That the sheriff is confirmed human also does not mean his votes will be effective if they cast it on an unimportant wagon or worse , the votes can save a wolf. I would say that having a hunter claiming out he is a hunter helps the wolves more than having a 100% human sheriff helps the humans.

I'm not disputing that mistakes can be made by this hunter-sheriff. I think that's clearly a moot point, because a human with all his no-information is the best we can hope for. One possible alternative is having to hunt down a rogue wolf-sheriff and then wonder if his successor is any better.

On the point of losing the benefit of an accurate shot: it's not clear the wolves will just let him keep the sheriff mantle forever. They might decide to "bite the bullet," as it were. But if not, like I said, at least you always have one friend you know. When I was a wolf facing off against a confirmed human for several days, I remember how tough that was.

On the point of "fear of being shot," I still don't understand this. How does a wolf that fears the concealed hunter play differently than a wolf that doesn't fear the role-claimed hunter? Do they skip mauls? Do they maul different people? I just don't understand how not knowing who the hunter is would change their maul picks. This concept has been suggested a few times, I just don't get it.

Rekard, your argument is weak, unless you can explain how a known-human sheriff is "helping the wolves."


But one point I will give you. If the hunter isn't willing to go along with the plan, it's not like we can make him. If there's no hunter role claim tomorrow, we'll just have to deal with it.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Clearasday » 01 Feb 2014, 18:51:52

Please can we not have the hunter come forward and claim.

1. He loses his power's effectiveness.
2. Having a confirmed human will only lead to people lazily following him. Confirmed humans =/= wolf catchers.
3. The wolves won't be as scared to special hunt

Seriously, hunter claiming is not a good idea. Especially not early on. Think for yourselves sheeple.
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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Feb 2014, 19:02:35

sphenodont wrote:The Hunter is there to make the wolves nervous about hunting for specials.

Clearasday wrote:3. The wolves won't be as scared to special hunt.

The idea that the Wolves would go to the trouble of profiling Villagers as likely specials but then be too chickenshit to try to maul a possible Seer or GA/Vig because they might hit the Hunter seems pretty silly.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Blindsniper83 » 01 Feb 2014, 19:40:24

Ravebomb for sheriff, to be different
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Admetus » 01 Feb 2014, 19:47:29

Clearasday wrote:3. The wolves won't be as scared to special hunt

Please. For my sanity. Would someone explain what the heck this means, rather than just saying it over and over without any explanation?

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby rekard » 01 Feb 2014, 19:56:19

Admetus wrote:
rekard wrote:Being a human hunter doesn't mean he will make correct decisions when voting or breaking ties. Also you don't know if the hunter will actually claim in the open and agree with your approach. The hunter has a great potential to help by an accurate shot and him claiming just takes that away. The mere existence of the hidden hunter is a threat to thecwolves. Yes, we could have an "immortal" human but it also helps the wolves as they have an easier time doing a maul. It also takes away the fear of being shot by a vigilante.

That the sheriff is confirmed human also does not mean his votes will be effective if they cast it on an unimportant wagon or worse , the votes can save a wolf. I would say that having a hunter claiming out he is a hunter helps the wolves more than having a 100% human sheriff helps the humans.

I'm not disputing that mistakes can be made by this hunter-sheriff. I think that's clearly a moot point, because a human with all his no-information is the best we can hope for. One possible alternative is having to hunt down a rogue wolf-sheriff and then wonder if his successor is any better.

On the point of losing the benefit of an accurate shot: it's not clear the wolves will just let him keep the sheriff mantle forever. They might decide to "bite the bullet," as it were. But if not, like I said, at least you always have one friend you know. When I was a wolf facing off against a confirmed human for several days, I remember how tough that was.

On the point of "fear of being shot," I still don't understand this. How does a wolf that fears the concealed hunter play differently than a wolf that doesn't fear the role-claimed hunter? Do they skip mauls? Do they maul different people? I just don't understand how not knowing who the hunter is would change their maul picks. This concept has been suggested a few times, I just don't get it.

Rekard, your argument is weak, unless you can explain how a known-human sheriff is "helping the wolves."


But one point I will give you. If the hunter isn't willing to go along with the plan, it's not like we can make him. If there's no hunter role claim tomorrow, we'll just have to deal with it.


It is quite simple. If a wolf suddenly suspects a player might be the hunter they won't be prone to maul him. As obvious as that. Talking from experience and from what other players have done and said in this game, people will make silly theories of anything especially the less they know about something. So it's not farfetched that the wolves may throw theories around that. The wolves don't even have to suspect a guy is a hunter. They just need to suspect a guy is a special role.

"The guy is behaving weirdly. He might be special. But which kind of special? What if he's the hunter?" The sole fact of this possibility can plant the seed of doubt on a wolf to the degree that they might be put off from seer hunting. If the hunter is out there and discovered, mauling suspected specials loses its risk.

Do not underestimate the capability of paranoia or doubt of players in this game. There are far sillier theories that have been devised by players in this game.

The wolves losing a member is always a big hit. The sole possibility of having an automatic wolf kill is worthwhile enough to keep the hunter hidden. It can be a game changing event.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Rictus » 01 Feb 2014, 20:04:46

I had a post written up but decided that my semi-drunk ramblings were'nt adding anything. So I drank a little more and rewrote it. Now it's freakin genius.

I suggest we separate the discussion about the Hunter and Sheriff.

My new position is that the Hunter should stay concealed, and then vig on day 2 or 3. This would give us a little more vote history for analysis VS the Hunter revealing on day 1. And it gives the Seer a few chances to get visions before he gets vigg'd.

The Sheriff discussion is (in my mind) separate. If we DON'T elect a Sheriff... there is no difference vs a "regular" game. If we DO, we have a risk of having a wolf with a double vote. But since the wolves have trouble hiding anyways, I say we DO elect a Sheriff in order to: 1) get a vote history of electing Sheriffs, and 2) get a bit more vote history for the Sheriff himself.

So I will go back to advocating for a Sheriff. And why not Dferrantino.

Next step is to tie up a few bandgwagons, and lynch Dferrantino when he picks a human.

PS - This:
Do not underestimate the capability of paranoia or doubt of players in this game.

is very true. I wasn't sure about rekard even after I seer'ed him myself.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby rekard » 01 Feb 2014, 20:08:54

Clearasday wrote:Please can we not have the hunter come forward and claim.

1. He loses his power's effectiveness.
2. Having a confirmed human will only lead to people lazily following him. Confirmed humans =/= wolf catchers.
3. The wolves won't be as scared to special hunt

Seriously, hunter claiming is not a good idea. Especially not early on. Think for yourselves sheeple.


This is key. Specially points 1 and 2.

Point 2 should actually be Super Point 1. Players trust confirmed humans and can/will produce bias. Also, a wolf can get less suspicious if he votes with a confirmed human. If a confirmed can get it wrong, why not the others? It can give strength to the innocence of a wolf voting to lynch the wrong wagon.

In the end, regardless of sheriff status, hunter, do not reveal yourself. That's what the wolves want. For them, it is much more preferable to not deal with that possibility.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ryvvn » 01 Feb 2014, 20:11:28

Did you all know today was (still is for a bit) dferr's birthday? As such, I think it fitting we set him up elect him to be Sheriff!

edit: forgot the actual vote... dferrantino for Sheriff

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Feb 2014, 20:12:32

Rictus wrote:My new position is that the Hunter should stay concealed, and then vig on day 2 or 3.

Not sure what you mean-- the Hunter has no active vig power, so he can't pick what day he vigs.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Feb 2014, 20:17:42

Rictus wrote:I suggest we separate the discussion about the Hunter and Sheriff.

But that's difficult because the two are linked-- if we elect a Sheriff of unknown affiliation today, then we can't elect a Hunter Sheriff tomorrow.

So the first question we should try to answer is: do we want a Hunter Sheriff tomorrow?

Hellheart wrote:We can also never elect a sheriff. That has its own merits and drawbacks. ))

Agreed-- perpetual "No Sheriff" may actually be better than electing an unconfirmed player as Sheriff.

That's why I think the Hunter role-claiming on Day 1 and electing him Sheriff is almost a no-brainer.

Having a known Villager able to snipe double votes on lynch candidates-- AND then break ties-- is a pretty big advantage that will make it much harder for the Wolves to control lynch votes.

And I think a Hunter Sheriff will make voting analysis much easier, because we won't have to worry that a Wolf Sheriff is playing mind games with us.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 01 Feb 2014, 20:26:35, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Feb 2014, 20:20:04

Clearasday wrote:2. Having a confirmed human will only lead to people lazily following him. Confirmed humans =/= wolf catchers.

rekard wrote:Point 2 should actually be Super Point 1. Players trust confirmed humans and can/will produce bias. Also, a wolf can get less suspicious if he votes with a confirmed human. If a confirmed can get it wrong, why not the others? It can give strength to the innocence of a wolf voting to lynch the wrong wagon..

Sheeping is a reasonable concern, but we can simply ask the Hunter Sheriff to vote as late in the day as possible-- after all, the less the Wolves know about his intentions, the better.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Nitestorm » 01 Feb 2014, 20:31:36

DastardlyOldMan wrote:I am interested in your ideas and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Nitestorm for Sheriff; nothing will keep these werewolves on their toes like the element of surprise, and I don't think anyone surprises us quite like Nitestorm.


Oh, you would be surprised at the kinds of surprises I have in store for Ozymandias the wolves. :o

Even I surprise myself sometimes, and that takes quite a bit of effort. :flail: :flail: :flail:

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Feb 2014, 20:34:10

Ozymandias wrote:Sheeping is a reasonable concern, but we can simply ask the Hunter Sheriff to vote as late in the day as possible-- after all, the less the Wolves know about his intentions, the better.

(( Either this or the Hunter Sheriff simply behaves unpredictably regarding what votes he makes and whether he changes them, if he's not going to be around for EOD. Whether this involves voting for players he won't keep his vote on early some days, switching around seemingly randomly throughout the day to screw with wolf math, etc. is up to him.

I still think that the benefits of a Hunter Sheriff versus the benefits of no Sheriff depend entirely on the identity of the Hunter. Which is why I want to leave it up to him, rather than try to push him to deny a role he may really want to take.

No Sheriff

EDIT: This does not mean I'm pushing for no Sheriff if the Hunter refuses to reveal tomorrow, I was just making that connection because those two options leave no Sheriff voting record, and players that don't want a wolf Sheriff at all costs have to push for one or the other. ))

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Nitestorm » 01 Feb 2014, 20:36:08

Clearasday wrote:Please can we not have the hunter come forward and claim.

1. He loses his power's effectiveness.
2. Having a confirmed human will only lead to people lazily following him. Confirmed humans =/= wolf catchers.
3. The wolves won't be as scared to special hunt

Seriously, hunter claiming is not a good idea. Especially not early on. Think for yourselves sheeple.


You tell us to think for ourselves, yet you clearly are attempting to guide our train of thought with your 3 baseless points. Hmm..... :?:

Have you been following the teachings of Ozymandias or something, or perhaps its simply due to the limitations of your canine brain?

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Rictus » 01 Feb 2014, 20:37:42

Ozymandias wrote:
Rictus wrote:My new position is that the Hunter should stay concealed, and then vig on day 2 or 3.

Not sure what you mean-- the Hunter has no active vig power, so he can't pick what day he vigs.


Ahh I was confusing the Hunter power with the Witch.

Hmm... Does that change the calculus? Given that the hunter can't vig to "prove" he's human... We have to wait until he's dead to find out for sure.




PS: Who was the vigilante that shot himself to prove he was human? Was that Ozy?
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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Nitestorm » 01 Feb 2014, 20:42:26

Rictus wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Rictus wrote:My new position is that the Hunter should stay concealed, and then vig on day 2 or 3.

Not sure what you mean-- the Hunter has no active vig power, so he can't pick what day he vigs.


Ahh I was confusing the Hunter power with the Witch.

Hmm... Does that change the calculus? Given that the hunter can't vig to "prove" he's human... We have to wait until he's dead to find out for sure.




PS: Who was the vigilante that shot himself to prove he was human? Was that Ozy?


What kind of idiotic vigilante exists who would actually shoot himself? That possibility of someone so spontaneously insane, crazy, and paranoid actually existing boggles my mind. There is no such individual. Even the evil one (a.k.a. Ozymandias) would not resort to such methods.

Hypothetically, if such a person does exist, we should vote him Sheriff just for the fun of it. :flail:

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Feb 2014, 20:47:48

Hellheart wrote:I still think that the benefits of a Hunter Sheriff versus the benefits of no Sheriff depend entirely on the identity of the Hunter. Which is why I want to leave it up to him, rather than try to push him to deny a role he may really want to take.

Agreed. If the Hunter is a player who is very likely to get mauled early in the game, then I don't think he should come forward.

But if an early maul (by say Night 3) seems unlikely to him, then I think he could do more good as a Hunter Sheriff.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Nitestorm » 01 Feb 2014, 21:02:00

Clearasday wrote:Oh God. Its happening again. May I remind people of the Sanitarium game, where you decided to vote Nitestorm in as sheriff because we thought having someone 'unpredictable' would be a good idea? Which team won that game again?

I'd usually put myself forward as a crazy candidate but this time I'm going to take a new approach. I'll try being the power behind the throne. So instead, I'm placing myself and my claws at Rekard's disposal as his campaign manager.

For years I've roamed the world looking for someone moldable enough to be my puppet in office. And I think I've finally found someone. I'm voting Rekard for sheriff. Why you ask? Because his name is 60%* shorter than Nitestorms, which makes it much easier for you to type and then bold. And heck, 2 in 3 people prefer him to the regular unbranded Rekard's that you find in town's these days.

So if you're lost and confused and all out of love, and if you know I was right, believing for so long, then vote REKARD, TODAY.


Is it my fault the sheep listen to me? I can hardly be blamed for that.

If all it takes to get your vote is to become your puppet, I have no issue with that. So long as whatever devious plans you come up with involve offing Ozymandias first, you'll never have any complaints from me. I may even consider not betraying you for a day or two. See how generous I am? :twisted:

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Feb 2014, 21:25:41

Rictus wrote:Hmm... Does that change the calculus? Given that the hunter can't vig to "prove" he's human... We have to wait until he's dead to find out for sure.

(( This one is obvious - if a player claims Hunter and is NOT counter-claimed, he is the Hunter full stop. If a player claims Hunter and he IS counter-claimed, then one of the players is the Hunter and the other is a wolf. In the latter case the wolf will die regardless of whom we lynch, since the Hunter will automatically shoot him if we lynch the Hunter.

No vanilla human in their right mind is going to claim or counter-claim as the Hunter. ))

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Rictus » 01 Feb 2014, 22:09:11

It's not as obvious as you claim. Consider last game.

I can easily see wolf Simple Simon stepping forward and claiming Hunter when he was getting bandwagon'd. Then it's up to the (real) hunter to step forward and counter-claim.

If the real Hunter remains hidden, then what?

Sure, you can blame the Hunter for suboptimal play but things don't always play out according to a flow chart.
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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 01 Feb 2014, 22:32:11

Rictus wrote:It's not as obvious as you claim. Consider last game.

I can easily see wolf Simple Simon stepping forward and claiming Hunter when he was getting bandwagon'd. Then it's up to the (real) hunter to step forward and counter-claim.

If the real Hunter remains hidden, then what?

Sure, you can blame the Hunter for suboptimal play but things don't always play out according to a flow chart.

Query: Why would the Hunter not claim there?

Statement: The Hunter will almost never get mauled as the result of a claim. He certainly would not have been lynched over Simon.

Commentary: You seem to believe that a scenario exists where the Hunter would purposely refuse to counter-claim a wolf.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ryvvn » 01 Feb 2014, 22:49:19

Rictus wrote:things don't always play out according to a flow chart

Just want to emphasize this, because sometimes certain people (maybe me, maybe not) will try to ensure this statement forever holds true.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby rekard » 02 Feb 2014, 00:06:37

Hellheart wrote:
Rictus wrote:It's not as obvious as you claim. Consider last game.

I can easily see wolf Simple Simon stepping forward and claiming Hunter when he was getting bandwagon'd. Then it's up to the (real) hunter to step forward and counter-claim.

If the real Hunter remains hidden, then what?

Sure, you can blame the Hunter for suboptimal play but things don't always play out according to a flow chart.

Query: Why would the Hunter not claim there?

Statement: The Hunter will almost never get mauled as the result of a claim. He certainly would not have been lynched over Simon.

Commentary: You seem to believe that a scenario exists where the Hunter would purposely refuse to counter-claim a wolf.


Assumptions can be the doom of humans at the moment of analysis. Specially since people can be unpredictable. Remember how simon killed fellow wolf MEM in the magic word game? The only reason of why simon was lynched that game was by role elimination and not real vote analysis or behavior detection.

A hunter might not counterclaim and prefer the possibility to get mauled for the chance to kill a different wolf, because if the hunter dies, the "hunter" wolf dies anyway with a lynch. The hunter kill is more effective if it nabs a wolf that is not suspected as much. The hunter is more useuful if he gets mauled. Even the random chance of killing a very "humanish" wolf can be worth it.

Wolves can also try to claim being a hunter if one of them is slated to meet certain doom by a lynch. If the hunter counterclaims, the wolves will now know who not to maul, and helps them deduce better who the other roles can be. It also helps to mess with the votes and potentially ruin 1-2 days of information with massive bandwagons. If the wolf was going to die anyways, what better way to go than getting the hunter out in the open and messing the vote structure.

In recent games, wolves have been bolder at making "illogical" moves with various degrees of success. We shoud not just assume things from the getgo, specially when we have small bits of information.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 02 Feb 2014, 00:27:30

I have to say, rekard, your arguments just seem to be getting weaker and weaker ...

rekard wrote:A hunter might not counterclaim and prefer the possibility to get mauled for the chance to kill a different wolf, because if the hunter dies, the "hunter" wolf dies anyway with a lynch. The hunter kill is more effective if it nabs a wolf that is not suspected as much. The hunter is more useuful if he gets mauled. Even the random chance of killing a very "humanish" wolf can be worth it.

If the Hunter is guaranteed to take out a Wolf, there's no way he should ever stay silent and let a fake Hunter lead the villagers astray.

That would be absolutely ridiculous.

I feel like you're not thinking the scenario through properly. If two players claim Hunter, then clearly the FIRST one to make the Hunter claim should be the one who gets lynched that day. That way, only the real Hunter will have incentive to counterclaim-- Wolves won't dare fake counterclaim a real Hunter because they'll be signing their own death warrant when the Hunter gets lynched.

So there's no reason why a real Hunter shouldn't come forward to counterclaim a fake Hunter-- because not only will a Wolf die, but the Hunter himself will get to live as a confirmed Villager for the rest of the game.

That's much better for the Villagers than the Hunter getting mauled.

rekard wrote:Wolves can also try to claim being a hunter if one of them is slated to meet certain doom by a lynch. If the hunter counterclaims, the wolves will now know who not to maul, and helps them deduce better who the other roles can be. It also helps to mess with the votes and potentially ruin 1-2 days of information with massive bandwagons. If the wolf was going to die anyways, what better way to go than getting the hunter out in the open and messing the vote structure.

So what are you suggesting in this scenario? That the real Hunter do nothing, and let the false Wolf Hunter live?

That doesn't seem like a good option for the Villagers.

If anything, this potential scenario of yours is a very strong argument for the Hunter revealing himself on Day 1 and being elected Sheriff, so that the Wolves won't be able to pull these types of shenanigans.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Feb 2014, 01:29:40

(( Basically what Ozymandias said.

If the Hunter feels that the claimer is so obviously a wolf that nobody will believe him, he can always hold off on counter-claiming for some time. But if the voting starts to move away from the wolf-claimer, then the Hunter is going to counter-claim. Worst case scenario is that a wolf false-claims Hunter when the Hunter isn't around that day, we lynch somebody else, and then we find out the following day that he's not the real Hunter. ))

Ryvvn wrote:
Rictus wrote:things don't always play out according to a flow chart

Just want to emphasize this, because sometimes certain people (maybe me, maybe not) will try to ensure this statement forever holds true.

Rebuttal: Things always play out according to my flowchart.

Image

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby stigmata » 02 Feb 2014, 03:39:15

No Sheriff. Unless it's me. Then that's cool.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Admetus » 02 Feb 2014, 06:47:13

Ozymandias wrote:I have to say, rekard, your arguments just seem to be getting weaker and weaker ...

rekard wrote:A hunter might not counterclaim and prefer the possibility to get mauled for the chance to kill a different wolf, because if the hunter dies, the "hunter" wolf dies anyway with a lynch. The hunter kill is more effective if it nabs a wolf that is not suspected as much. The hunter is more useuful if he gets mauled. Even the random chance of killing a very "humanish" wolf can be worth it.

If the Hunter is guaranteed to take out a Wolf, there's no way he should ever stay silent and let a fake Hunter lead the villagers astray.

No, I actually find this argument from rekard more persuasive. In the case where the player might think he is likely to be mauled in the near term, his role-reveal on death will doom the fake wolf-hunter. In addition, the hunter's counter-maul takes another wolf. That's a pretty good plan for a hunter. He doesn't get to play confirmed human all game, but there's probably some analysis to be done with the votes anyways. It works best if the player is going to die to the maul. Worst case, though, the hunter is lynched one day when he's not active enough to counter-claim, or his counter-claim is not believed. Then he just takes out the wolf he knows, the one he could get any time.


Ozymandias wrote:I feel like you're not thinking the scenario through properly. If two players claim Hunter, then clearly the FIRST one to make the Hunter claim should be the one who gets lynched that day. That way, only the real Hunter will have incentive to counterclaim-- Wolves won't dare fake counterclaim a real Hunter because they'll be signing their own death warrant when the Hunter gets lynched.
[...]
If anything, this potential scenario of yours is a very strong argument for the Hunter revealing himself on Day 1 and being elected Sheriff, so that the Wolves won't be able to pull these types of shenanigans.

The problem here is the excessive discussion is going to make this much less straightforward. Did you just recommend that the hunter reveals first, or second? Is it the "obvious" lynch to kill the first hunter, or did that just become the obvious wolf play? If the wolves decide to "bite the bullet" as I was saying, they can volunteer whichever wolf they want to, on Day 1 when losing the wolf doesn't reveal any important vote history, as opposed to a later point. If they have a roadmap to how to make sure their claim is the one that's believed, that's a bad trade for the humans. Of course if the humans out-guess them we get a confirmed human and a dead wolf, but then we're going in against a Sicilian when death is on the line -- only slightly better of an idea than starting a land war in Asia.



I think rekard may have convinced me the later reveal is better, even if there's been a fake wolf-hunter in the village. It's still a decision only the hunter could make, but at least now I can see the other side of the argument.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby 7-zark-7 » 02 Feb 2014, 07:25:43

I awoke with a start, & surveyed the sleepy hamlet anew. Not a lot had changed while I had slept. Boxing promoters, diamond thieves, Irish gypsies, pawn shop owners-turned-petty thugs, evil Russian gangsters, bulletproof strong-arms, bad boy yardies, diamond brokers, man-eating pigs, squeaky dogs, and a whole bunch more actively debated if we should have a sheriff, if that sheriff should be a hunter, and if he should reveal himself as such.
Ozymandias wrote:That would be absolutely ridiculous.


Taken out of context? Surely it would

Ozymandias wrote:I feel like you're not thinking the scenario through properly.


I confess, that is likely. Care to enlighten me?

Ozymandias wrote:If two players claim Hunter, then clearly the FIRST one to make the Hunter claim should be the one who gets lynched that day. That way, only the real Hunter will have incentive to counterclaim-- Wolves won't dare fake counterclaim a real Hunter because they'll be signing their own death warrant when the Hunter gets lynched.

So there's no reason why a real Hunter shouldn't come forward to counterclaim a fake Hunter-- because not only will a Wolf die, but the Hunter himself will get to live as a confirmed Villager for the rest of the game.

That's much better for the Villagers than the Hunter getting mauled.


This scenario only works if we have two claimants. Due to the human bias of this scenario, it's highly unlikely, therefore claiming its merits as given is a straw man argument. I worry whenever an entire village attempts to strong arm one player into revealing themselves. I mean it worked with Lady Godiva (I loved the energy of her first album... But that "Edge of Glory" song from the follow up was about her grandfather, which had me kind of :? , but I'm changing the subject.)

The problem is, voting no Omar Sharif means less vote analysis, due to less information. Did we learn nothing from his turn as Doctor Zhivago? I admit, my suspension of disbelief was troubled when the role of his half brother was played by Alec Guinness.

Like many of today's arguments, Film critic Roger Ebert felt that Doctor Zhivago "lumbered noisily from nowhere to nowhere", and that Omar Sharif's performance was "soulful but bewildered". In general, the film's critics have found Doctor Zhivago too overly romantic and almost at the level of soap opera, and those same critics who found the length of the film overbearing also found the depiction of historical events too facile.

rekard wrote:Wolves can also try to claim being a hunter if one of them is slated to meet certain doom by a lynch. If the hunter counterclaims, the wolves will now know who not to maul, and helps them deduce better who the other roles can be. It also helps to mess with the votes and potentially ruin 1-2 days of information with massive bandwagons. If the wolf was going to die anyways, what better way to go than getting the hunter out in the open and messing the vote structure.

Ozymandias wrote:So what are you suggesting in this scenario? That the real Hunter do nothing, and let the false Wolf Hunter live?

That doesn't seem like a good option for the Villagers.

If anything, this potential scenario of yours is a very strong argument for the Hunter revealing himself on Day 1 and being elected Sheriff, so that the Wolves won't be able to pull these types of shenanigans.


I will state, I am intrinsically uncomfortable with the focus on one role & personally believe the hunter is most effective with a known kill shot that will hit a wolf, something that only happens if Skywalker's sister were to remain safely anonymous. I am concerned that a confirmed human does not equal a skilled hunter, but that his votes will lead to sheeping... Lock, stock, and two smoking barrels.

So why am I voting no Omar Sharif? While I emphatically do not agree with asking/forcing the hunter to reveal, if he chooses to, he does present a viable candidate, and that's information we don't have today.

More in a bit,

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby RaveBomb » 02 Feb 2014, 08:32:23

Blindsniper83 wrote:Ravebomb for sheriff, to be different


I didn't get to be a Vig-King, so the LEAST you could all do is vote me in. If not today, then tomorrow.
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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Feb 2014, 09:10:00

RaveBomb wrote:
Blindsniper83 wrote:Ravebomb for sheriff, to be different


I didn't get to be a Vig-King, so the LEAST you could all do is vote me in. If not today, then tomorrow.

Statement: You are a hooved meatbag, and I am not Caligula.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 02 Feb 2014, 09:10:11

Admetus wrote:Did you just recommend that the hunter reveals first, or second?

I think most Villagers-- roughly 80%-- would be better off coming forward tomorrow as Hunter, so that we can elect them as Sheriff.

But if they don't come forward, and someone else falsely claims Hunter, then I suggest that they always immediately counter-claim so that we can take out a guaranteed Wolf.

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Feb 2014, 09:44:04

Ozymandias wrote:
Admetus wrote:Did you just recommend that the hunter reveals first, or second?

I think most Villagers-- roughly 80%-- would be better off coming forward tomorrow as Hunter, so that we can elect them as Sheriff.

But if they don't come forward, and someone else falsely claims Hunter, then I suggest that they always immediately counter-claim so that we can take out a guaranteed Wolf.

(( Clearly the Hunter would stay silent on Day 1 so that he can bag us an additional wolf when they attempt to maul him. If he instead reveals himself in a counter-claim, then he's bagged that wolf without actually being mauled. Even if he is the first claimant and the wolves in their total stupidity decide to sacrifice a wolf in a counter-claim - and it couldn't be an obvious wolf because no matter what Ozymandias says, sometimes the correct choice is simply to lynch the guy that's covered in fur and howling - he still gets the same number of wolves that he would have gotten if nobody claimed and he got mauled. Yes, it's possible that he gets mauled later on after being quiet and he gets two wolves instead of one, but depending on which wolf is making the false-claim and how long the Hunter has kept silent, that could backfire in all kinds of horrible ways as that wolf has a lot of false credibility. ))

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Ozymandias » 02 Feb 2014, 09:49:54

Hellheart wrote:because no matter what Ozymandias says, sometimes the correct choice is simply to lynch the guy that's covered in fur and howling

When did I say otherwise? That's exactly what I've been arguing for.

EDIT: Hilarious flowchart, btw! :lol: :lol:

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby Hellheart » 02 Feb 2014, 09:57:19

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:because no matter what Ozymandias says, sometimes the correct choice is simply to lynch the guy that's covered in fur and howling

When did I say otherwise? That's exactly what I've been arguing for.

EDIT: Hilarious flowchart, btw! :lol: :lol:

(( Thanks, I was hoping that somebody would get a kick out of it :D ))

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Re: Day 0 - A Place To Hang Your Hat

Postby rekard » 02 Feb 2014, 10:15:32

You and Hellheart missed the point. It's about scenarios that can happen, and can't be discarded because people can't and won't behave as you are assuming. A wolf about to die in a lynch may attempt to claim being a hunter to fish him out. The wolf will die anyways but at least, they have a hunter in the open they don't have to worry about. Or sometimes the hunter won't counterclaim and wait for the right time if it's not a critical moment. Specially if it is able to manipulate the wolves into making bad votes or giving them the uneasiness of "why isn't he counterclaiming?". I know I wouldn't say anything if I was the hunter, just to screw with the wolves and bide my time for when it is more appropiate and observe this so called "hunter" moves.

Anyways, I am opposed to this silly No Sheriff vote if its intention is to have a hunter come out on day 1 and make him sheriff. It's not reliable because humans aren't perfect. And the mere possibility of a wolf autokill is worth more.

Having a confirmed human starting on day 1 does not mean automatic cred, or automatic win. He will do whatever he wants in the end because he doesn't know who is a wolf or human besides himself.

Another reason I don't advocate this shallow strategy is that it works in the wolves favor. We do No Sheriff today and vote history is foggy at best. We vote the hunter as a sheriff and we have no vote history again. Not only the wolves have diffussed the dangers of the sheriff vote analysis for the rest of the game, but discovered who is the hunter in the process! And what do the humans get? An unlynchable\unmaulable human with extra powers who we will not know he will make an accurate decision with them and who humans will inevitably trust even if he gets it absolutely wrong.


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