Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

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Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby sphenodont » 05 Feb 2014, 19:33:07

The bucket was passed around and around again until at the very last second, a ballot was dropped in by none other than the Sheriff himself.

"I think you know how this is going to turn out," Ozy announced. "Yes, I tied the vote and yes, I'm breaking the vote. dferrantino, COME ON DOWN!"

dferrantino looked for somewhere to run, but the rest of the village closed in on him and pushed him forward to meet his justice.

"I'm innocent! I swear!" dferrantino screamed, but Ozy merely shook his head.

"Everyone's innocent." He turned to the mob. "I don't have anything fancy set up, and I'm not risking that hanging platform, after what happened to Nitestorm, so I'll have to do this the old fashioned way."

He reached forward and twisted dferrantino's head off.

dferrantino - lynched - villager

[+] Voting History
rekard votes for ICB
Ozy votes for stigmata (retracted)
Smirker votes for Ozy (retracted)
San votes for dferrantino
DOM votes for Omega
MEM votes for stigmata
AVS votes for dferrantino
Meta4 votes for Ozy
Simple_Simon votes for San
dferrantino votes for San
Hellheart votes for stigmata
Blindsniper83 votes for rekard
necklessone votes for stigmata
Visigoth votes for FurinMirado
FurinMirado votes for dferrantino
ICB votes for stigmata
7-zark-7 tempts fate by voting for sphenodont
stigmata votes for dferrantino
Ozy votes for San (retracted)
twdog votes for dferrantino
Omega votes for San
Ryvvn votes for ICB
Clearasday votes for Ryvvn
Rictus votes for stigmata
Smirker votes for MEM
dferrantino votes for stigmata


Voting Totals
stigmata - 7 - Ozymandias (retracted), Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, necklessonce, Iron Clad Burrito, 7-zark-7, Rictus, dferrantino
dferrantino - 7 - San, Augenvonsauron, FurinMirado, stigmata, twdog, Ozymandias x 2
San - 3 - Simple_Simon, dferrantino, Ozymandias (retracted), Omega
Ozymandias - 1 - Smirker (retracted), Meta4
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - rekard, Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
rekard - 1 - Blindsniper83
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Smirker
No vote: Aldax, RaveBomb
Last edited by sphenodont on 06 Feb 2014, 05:41:57, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Nothing to see here, move along please!

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby sphenodont » 05 Feb 2014, 19:35:25

rekard was getting nervous and kept glancing at his watch. Time was literally standing still (naturally, since his watch was painted on). He could have sworn his beloved told him to meet him by the Olde Barrel o' Monkeyes, but he was no where to be seen!

Instead, he met with a very grisly demise at the hands of a pack of very, very, VERY hungry lycanthropes.

rekard - mauled - villager Lover

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby sphenodont » 05 Feb 2014, 19:38:46

In the morning, simple_simon was the first to find rekard. He had tried to sneak out of the house without his wife noticing, but she insisted that he stay up and read horoscopes together. Finally, she fell asleep and he slipped out, only to find the most horrifying sight imaginable — his dear, darling rekard, torn to shreds.

In response, simon literally fell to pieces.

Simple_simon - died of heart break - villager, lover

GM Note: Aldax and RaveBomb failed to vote yesterday and receive 2 penalty votes.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Smirker » 05 Feb 2014, 19:44:59

[[ Well crap, now I feel like a heel for my comment in the F5 thread. :( Twas just a joke. Plus, I like Farnsworth.]]

Considering the reveals, I have nothing to add at the moment as I'm inclined to give Ozy the benefit of the doubt.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Feb 2014, 19:45:17

Well, I guess that's a bit unfortunate. For those who didn't read to the end of my EOD post last night:

viewtopic.php?f=55&t=407&start=100#p19175

I'm the Seer, and I seered Simon as the other Lover last night.

I also Seered Zark as a vanilla Villager on Night 1.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Feb 2014, 19:46:34

btw, now that the Lovers are dead, is there any reason for The Cupid not to role claim?

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Blindsniper83 » 05 Feb 2014, 19:50:55

Ozymandias wrote:btw, now that the Lovers are dead, is there any reason for The Cupid not to role claim?


i ALMOST paired you and Nitestorm up

thought SS and rekard would be a safer pairing seeing as both seem to live a decent bit
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Mister E. Meat » 05 Feb 2014, 19:51:30

Ozymandias wrote:Well, I guess that's a bit unfortunate. For those who didn't read to the end of my EOD post last night:

viewtopic.php?f=55&t=407&start=100#p19175

I'm the Seer, and I seered Simon as the other Lover last night.

I also Seered Zark as a vanilla Villager on Night 1.

I'm confused. If your plan was to seer dferr, why did you last second snipe vote to lynch him?

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 05 Feb 2014, 19:51:59

(( Is The Cupid a human-exclusive role, or was it randomed among the entire playerbase?

I can't believe you didn't vote for Stigmata simply because you thought Simon was a slightly more likely wolf. Between Dferrantino and Stigmata, Stigmata is a much more likely wolf because he was part of that 4-way tie. Unless you honestly believe that MEM is a wolf (highly unlikely) or that none of the 4 bandwagons were wolves (also highly unlikely).

Dferrantino had really done nothing wolfy. His votes weren't even particularly wolfy, unless you thought that choosing San over Omega to tie at 2 votes - or voting on somebody with no votes at all - is wolfy enough to push him over Stigmata.

Pre-Post EDIT: I thought you might pair me and Admetus, and was grateful that you did not after he was friggin' mauled on Day 1. ))

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Feb 2014, 19:52:34

Blindsniper83 wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:btw, now that the Lovers are dead, is there any reason for The Cupid not to role claim?

i ALMOST paired you and Nitestorm up

That would have been pretty funny!

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 05 Feb 2014, 19:54:59

(( MEM - Strong human read
Ryvvn - Slight human read (caveat: his wolf game improves each time)
ICB - Slight human read (he's stuck his neck out TWICE, and this time his vote pushed Stigmata ahead of a human)

I'll probably have other reads but I need to re-read the previous day with the other players in mind. Had villager vibes from Simon as well. ))

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Feb 2014, 19:56:21

Mister E. Meat wrote:I'm confused. If your plan was to seer dferr, why did you last second snipe vote to lynch him?

My plan was to Seer Simon, because I had the most non-Human read on him.

But if stigmata got lynched instead of dferrantino, then there wouldn't be as much reason to Seer Simon (since I felt one or the other was a Wolf), so I put dferrantino first in case I was unable to take him out.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 05 Feb 2014, 19:56:50

Ozymandias wrote:
Blindsniper83 wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:btw, now that the Lovers are dead, is there any reason for The Cupid not to role claim?

i ALMOST paired you and Nitestorm up

That would have been pretty funny!

(( Dferr would be able to laugh right now, I'll give you that.

I do believe that you're the Seer unless a counter comes soon since a claim like that is going to be countered almost instantly since you're Sheriff. That was still, IMO, a really poor decision. I'm not even saying that Stigmata's a wolf, but I am saying that he was far more wolfy than Dferr was. ))

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Blindsniper83 » 05 Feb 2014, 20:00:37

i wanted to see nitestorm's head explode so much but realized it would have been a waste of role as ozy and him ALWAYS try to off each other
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Feb 2014, 20:07:11

Blindsniper83 wrote:i wanted to see nitestorm's head explode so much but realized it would have been a waste of role as ozy and him ALWAYS try to off each other

Voting for each of the lovers on Day 1 and Day 2 was pretty clever.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Blindsniper83 » 05 Feb 2014, 20:09:15

Ozymandias wrote:
Blindsniper83 wrote:i wanted to see nitestorm's head explode so much but realized it would have been a waste of role as ozy and him ALWAYS try to off each other

Voting for each of the lovers on Day 1 and Day 2 was pretty clever.

i was hoping theyd survive and catch on perhaps
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 05 Feb 2014, 20:13:41

(( Stupid statement earlier. Cupid has to be human, otherwise the wolves would simply attach two humans and immediately maul one.

MEM could theoretically be a wolf, but I think that only makes sense if both he and Stigmata are wolves and he chose to vote Stigmata because...uh...yeah. That's one hell of an unlikely scenario. ))

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Feb 2014, 20:15:20

I claim personal post 5000 in the name of overcalculation!

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 05 Feb 2014, 20:15:49

Hey look-- I'm a Post Nympho!

And I picked up half a star!

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 05 Feb 2014, 20:16:51

Ozymandias wrote:Hey look-- I'm a Post Nympho!

And I picked up half a star!

(( To celebrate this momentous occasion, I'm going to not post for the rest of the night.

This is going to be so friggin' hard. ))

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby stigmata » 05 Feb 2014, 20:56:10

Hellheart wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Blindsniper83 wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:btw, now that the Lovers are dead, is there any reason for The Cupid not to role claim?

i ALMOST paired you and Nitestorm up

That would have been pretty funny!

(( Dferr would be able to laugh right now, I'll give you that.

I do believe that you're the Seer unless a counter comes soon since a claim like that is going to be countered almost instantly since you're Sheriff. That was still, IMO, a really poor decision. I'm not even saying that Stigmata's a wolf, but I am saying that he was far more wolfy than Dferr was. ))

I still don't think I understand why it's wolfy to be a whiny bitch, but that's just a moot point now that I've survived two ties. At this point I should buy a lottery ticket.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 05 Feb 2014, 22:50:12

I changed my mind - let's see how concise I can be instead.

There was a 4-way tie late on Day 1. Here's the tally at that point:
Day 1 PARTIAL vote totals at the time of 4-way tie wrote:Mister E. Meat : 4 : DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino
Nitestorm : 4 : Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, Ravebomb
stigmata : 4 : Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias
Admetus : 4 : rekard, Iron Clad Burrito, Rictus, Aldax

I believe that there is a wolf in this 4-way tie. You or MEM would be that wolf.

I only had a slight wolf lean on you at the start of Day 2. Two votes during Day 2 changed that:

1) MEM voted for you early on Day 2, pushing you into the lead with 2 votes, and stayed there the entire day. He doesn't make that vote if he's a wolf and you're a human - he would be killing himself. I don't think he makes that vote if you're both wolves, either. That vote gave me the strong human lean on MEM.

2) ICB voted for you late on Day 2, pushing you into the lead with 4 votes. If you're human that Day 2 vote looks really bad for ICB, so he's doing this because he either thinks you're a wolf or he knows that you're a wolf.

That's two fairly strong players who are betting their lives because out of all of the players in this game, you were the most likely wolf going into Day 2.

-------------

Ozymandias...seriously, the Nitestorm Sheriff votes have absolutely nothing to do with whether or not a player is a wolf. Anyone with half a brain knew that if anybody was going to be elected Sheriff, it would be one of: Nitestorm (random), Ravebomb (VERY random), CAD (chronic backstabber). It's far more likely that the wolves spread their votes out instead of piling on Nitestorm like you seem to claim.

Your starting point for wolfishness is a [potentially/likely] flawed theory that distorts your thinking and leads you astray. Focus on the voting over the past couple of days unless you truly believe that every single lead wagon has been human.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby San » 06 Feb 2014, 03:18:49

Too many wolves.

Hellheart, FurinMirado, Ryvvn?
MisterE.Meat, AugenVonSauron?

Let's test if the pattern continues today.

lynch Aldax

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby FurinMirado » 06 Feb 2014, 03:37:00

Long day of work for me today. In case I don't make it back, I'm going to put a vote here right now. stigmata

Hellheart's analysis makes sense to me. I will also add:

If Stigmata is Human:
Ozy looks more likely Human. I can't think of a reason why a Wolf would post all that at the end of the day and lynch dferrantino if both candidates were Human. I just don't see the point to it.

If Stigmata is a Wolf:
Ozy is probably a Wolf. His vote saved Stigmata at the last minute due to him being Sheriff. I'm still not sure that Ozy was actually supposed to be the true successor either. The story made it sound like Ozy stole succession from the rightful heir, which would be an interesting Wolf role. He also Seer claimed which we can't prove without the real Seer coming forward. They won't do that without finding a Wolf or having a few days of Humans to list.

Also ICB and MEM seem more Human if Stigmata is a Wolf. Per Hellheart's analysis.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Rictus » 06 Feb 2014, 05:13:51

[+] Day 1 Lynch
Lynch Voting Totals
Nitestorm - 5 - Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, RaveBomb, Ozymandias
Mister E. Meat - 5 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito
Stigmata - 3 - Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias (retracted)
Admetus - 3 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito (retracted), Rictus, Aldax
Ozymandias - 3 - Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday - 2 - 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron
Omega - 2 - Mister E. Meat, Admetus
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83, Ozymandias (retracted)
Blindsniper83 - 1 - San
RaveBomb - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - twdog
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)


[+] Day 2 Lynch
Voting Totals
stigmata - 7 - Ozymandias (retracted), Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, necklessonce, Iron Clad Burrito, 7-zark-7, Rictus, dferrantino
dferrantino - 7 - San, Augenvonsauron, FurinMirado, stigmata, twdog, Ozymandias x 2
San - 3 - Simple_Simon, dferrantino, Ozymandias (retracted), Omega
Ozymandias - 1 - Smirker (retracted), Meta4
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - rekard, Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
rekard - 1 - Blindsniper83
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Smirker
No vote: Aldax, RaveBomb


Notes:
The original post from GM has stigmata voting for himself on Day 2. I changed it to dferrantino.
I am *assuming* that Ozymandias is human based on his role claim as Seer. This also makes 7-Zark-7 human.
I am *assuming* that Blindsniper is human based on his role claim as Cupid.
Charming, to the last.
.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby sphenodont » 06 Feb 2014, 05:42:38

Rictus wrote:The original post from GM has stigmata voting for himself on Day 2. I changed it to dferrantino.


I have no idea what you are talking about.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby 7-zark-7 » 06 Feb 2014, 07:46:18

Dearly Beloved, we are gathered here today to look at the Day Zero Nomar Sharif vote, as chronicled in St Sphenodont's first letter to the Rich Corinthian Leathers: Subject: Day 01 - And a Great Place to Hang Your Guilty, Too!

sphenodont wrote:Sheriff Vote - Voting Totals Result: No Sheriff
No Sheriff - 9 - Admetus, FurinMirado, necklessone, Ozymandias, Rictus (retracted), Smirker, Hellheart, Stigmata, 7-zark-7, Simple_simon
Nitestorm - 3 - Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
dferrantino - 3 - dferrantino, Rictus, Ryvvn
simple_simon - 2 - Visigoth, rekard
rekard - 1 - Clearasday, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ravebomb - 1 - Blindsniper83
Admetus - 0 - Ozymandias (retracted)


Note, there's confirmed dead, and there's very very likely human due to role reveals & in thread logic. It's a subtle but OCD-for-me distinction, because while I do not have reason at this time to doubt the logic, I still need to keep the living and the dead straight. If doubts do manifest later, I don't have to reinvent the technicolor.

Now, Nomar's time had come and gone (I still have my Garciapara Jersey, and root for him loudly whenever I watch Hockey. True Story. Shut up). There was literally a new Sheriff in town, and the Nightstorm delivered his characteristic brand of dying to prove his humanity. He also handed the mighty sombrero to Ozy, and this is why we can't have nice things. Please turn to the Book of Armaments, Chapter 2, verses 9–21:

Subject: Day 02 - He is the Terror Who Storms In The Night?

sphenodont wrote:
Sheriff Voting Totals
Nitestorm - 9 - Nitestorm, 7-zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Augenvonsauron, Smirker, RaveBomb, stigmata, dferrantino, Rictus
Clearasday - 8 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, Ozymandias (retracted), necklessone, rekard, Ozymandias, FurinMirado, Admetus, Aldax
FurinMirado - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Clearasday, Mister E. Meat, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ozymandias - 2 - Visigoth, Simple_Simon
Admetus - 2 - Hellheart, Ozymandias (retracted), Ryvvn, Admetus (retracted)
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83
RaveBomb - 1 - twdog
No Sheriff - 1 - Mister E. Meat (retracted), Ozymandias (retracted), Meta4
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)
Visigoth - 0 - rekard (retracted)
Smirker - 0 - Smirker (retracted)



Skip a bit brother

sphenodont wrote:*boom*

When the dust cleared, all that was left of Nitestorm was his legs and the still-unblemished Sombrero


So are you pondering what I'm pondering?

sphenodont wrote:I have no idea what you are talking about.


I confess, I really don't either half the time. but I do find it interesting that the list of alternate sheriff candidates on day zero is a field of green (other than Ravebomb) I still believe there was at least one lupine in the vote on Nightstorm (for such a large bandwagon, we'd be hard pressed to not have a presence). As such, I'm looking at Nightstorm fans who also voted for No Sheriff Day Zero

Day 1 Sheriff Votes for Nightstorm wrote:Nitestorm - 9 - Nitestorm, 7-zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Augenvonsauron, Smirker, RaveBomb, stigmata, dferrantino, Rictus


Day 0 Lack of Sheriff Vote wrote:Result: No Sheriff
No Sheriff - 9 - Admetus, FurinMirado, necklessone, Ozymandias, Rictus (retracted), Smirker, Hellheart, Stigmata, 7-zark-7, Simple_simon


Smirker, Stigmata, & Rictus match this self-imposed filter. ICB voted for Sheriff Nightstorm day zero & day 1, & is worth a look as well on that criteria. I'm inclined towards Stigmata for reasons posted yesterday, but fear the lack of analysis creating a repeat-of-yesterday's lynch candidate entails. Such a bandwagon would be easy for the furies to hide within.

I may change my vote later, but in the meantime, I hope you'll excuse me as I pull on my driving gloves & go over the last couple of tracks again. As always, there will be

More in a bit,

7z7
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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby RaveBomb » 06 Feb 2014, 08:31:07

Sorry, please WOG RaveBomb

I got no bandwidth for this right now. :cry:
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 09:34:42

Hellheart wrote:I only had a slight wolf lean on you [stigmata] at the start of Day 2. Two votes during Day 2 changed that:

1) MEM voted for you early on Day 2, pushing you into the lead with 2 votes, and stayed there the entire day. He doesn't make that vote if he's a wolf and you're a human - he would be killing himself. I don't think he makes that vote if you're both wolves, either. That vote gave me the strong human lean on MEM.

I disagree. I don't think this vote put MEM in much danger, since I argued so strongly against stigmata. I could very easily see Wolf MEM making this vote and then hiding behind Sheriff Ozy for cover.

Hellheart wrote:2) ICB voted for you late on Day 2, pushing you into the lead with 4 votes. If you're human that Day 2 vote looks really bad for ICB, so he's doing this because he either thinks you're a wolf or he knows that you're a wolf.

Again, I disagree. If stigmata is Human, Wolf ICB would have plenty of reason to vote for him, because that would make ICB's Day 1 snipe look a lot less suspicious.

Let's go back to that Day 1 snipe:

Now it may have been motivated solely by Nitestorm being a returning player, as ICB claimed on Day 2:

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:((frankly I think it was a dick move to lynch him, having been removed from the game for so long, but that's neither here nor there at this point and done is done.))

or that may have just been the pretext.

What I don't quite understand is, if ICB really felt that way, why did he wait until the end of Day 1 to act?

He posted three hours before the end of Day 1: viewtopic.php?f=55&t=405&start=100#p18932, when Nitestorm already had 4 votes and was tied for the lynch lead.

So why not raise this issue then? If he had said something, I'm guessing at least one player would have switched off of Nitestorm. If he's a Wolf, I can think of two reasons for not saying anything: he didn't want to put a fellow Wolf in more danger, or he simply didn't want to link himself to the "Sheriff Nitestorm Gambit."

But I can't think of any reason why a Human who felt the way ICB does about returning players wouldn't speak up earlier in that spot, so I'm going to cast a double-layer Iron Clad Burrito lynch vote.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 06 Feb 2014, 18:59:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 09:37:49

Lynch Vote Tally:
Aldax - 3 - San, Penalty (x2)
Iron Clad Burrito - 2 - Ozymandias (x2)
Ravebomb - 2 - Penalty (x2)
stigmata - 2 - Furin, Zark

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 09:53:04

RaveBomb wrote:Sorry, please WOG RaveBomb

I got no bandwidth for this right now. :cry:

Sorry to hear that, Rave.

For future reference, if anyone ever needs to WOG themselves, they should always ask via PM to the GM, so that we don't have to deal with the meta aspects of a public self-WOG request.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 06 Feb 2014, 09:58:05

Random stab at Ryvvn. Apologies for contributing ~zero to the ongoing discussions, hopefully free up a bit in the weekend.

Only thing of interest-in-skimming is that Admetus and rekard both stand out as strong, generally analytical players - choice of their mauls might provide some info, although I'm unsure just yet what.

Ozy's choice of the linked-maul target as his backup gives me conspiracy-theory-feelings toward ~knowing that simple_simon would be dead by morning, in which case Ozy/blindsniper/7Z7 would be linked up and furry. A relatively unlikely scenario, but if I were a seer waiting to counter Ozy's claim, I'd be considering those options. Ozy's generally "safe" to seer-claim, since he tends to be killed off early regardless of whether he's wolf or human, meaning that if anyone's going to make a suicide-run to out the seer, it would be Ozy. Again, highly unlikely, but trust no one, etc.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Meta4 » 06 Feb 2014, 10:01:10

DastardlyOldMan, come on down!
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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby necklessone » 06 Feb 2014, 10:04:38

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Random stab at Ryvvn. Apologies for contributing ~zero to the ongoing discussions, hopefully free up a bit in the weekend.

Only thing of interest-in-skimming is that Admetus and rekard both stand out as strong, generally analytical players - choice of their mauls might provide some info, although I'm unsure just yet what.

Ozy's choice of the linked-maul target as his backup gives me conspiracy-theory-feelings toward ~knowing that simple_simon would be dead by morning, in which case Ozy/blindsniper/7Z7 would be linked up and furry. A relatively unlikely scenario, but if I were a seer waiting to counter Ozy's claim, I'd be considering those options. Ozy's generally "safe" to seer-claim, since he tends to be killed off early regardless of whether he's wolf or human, meaning that if anyone's going to make a suicide-run to out the seer, it would be Ozy. Again, highly unlikely, but trust no one, etc.

I've tried very, very hard to work out a plausible scenario where Ozy is a wolf. One of the big sticking points is how would he have known simple_simon was going to die? There's nothing I can see in the main thread that comes close to linking rekard and simon aslovers and the wolves targeted rekard.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 10:06:47

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Ozy's choice of the linked-maul target as his backup gives me conspiracy-theory-feelings toward ~knowing that simple_simon would be dead by morning.

How could the Wolves possibly know that simple_simon would be dead?

The Lovers were both Villagers, and The Cupid is a Villager role.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Feb 2014, 10:48:25

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I only had a slight wolf lean on you [stigmata] at the start of Day 2. Two votes during Day 2 changed that:

1) MEM voted for you early on Day 2, pushing you into the lead with 2 votes, and stayed there the entire day. He doesn't make that vote if he's a wolf and you're a human - he would be killing himself. I don't think he makes that vote if you're both wolves, either. That vote gave me the strong human lean on MEM.

I disagree. I don't think this vote put MEM in much danger, since I argued so strongly against stigmata. I could very easily see Wolf MEM making this vote and then hiding behind Sheriff Ozy for cover.

Hellheart wrote:2) ICB voted for you late on Day 2, pushing you into the lead with 4 votes. If you're human that Day 2 vote looks really bad for ICB, so he's doing this because he either thinks you're a wolf or he knows that you're a wolf.

Again, I disagree. If stigmata is Human, Wolf ICB would have plenty of reason to vote for him, because that would make ICB's Day 1 snipe look a lot less suspicious.

Let's go back to that Day 1 snipe:

Now it may have been motivated solely by Nitestorm being a returning player, as ICB claimed on Day 2:

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:((frankly I think it was a dick move to lynch him, having been removed from the game for so long, but that's neither here nor there at this point and done is done.))

or that may have just been the pretext.

What I don't quite understand is, if ICB really felt that way, why did he wait until the end of Day 1 to act?

He posted three hours before the end of Day 1: viewtopic.php?f=55&t=405&start=100#p18932, when Nitestorm already had 4 votes and was tied for the lynch lead.

So why not raise this issue then? If he had said something, I'm guessing at least one player would have switched off of Nitestorm. If he's a Wolf, I can think of two reasons for not saying anything: he didn't want to put a fellow Wolf in more danger, or he simply didn't want to link himself to the "Sheriff Nitestorm Gambit."

But I can't think of any reason why a Human who felt the way ICB does about returning players wouldn't speak up earlier in that spot, so I'm going to cast a double-layer Iron Clad Burrito lynch vote.


Frankly, I was trying to tread carefully. There's nothing against the rules for voting out a freshly returned player, and being an admin here, I didn't want my own personal rule being construed as an edict from high places. Plus, day 1.I have seen bandwagons dissolve more quickly than that. When it didn't, I was in a position to take action without impressing my personal values on others.

I would have done the same for you.

I am starting to feel irritated that you're still making up situations where I am wolf and making the facts fit while you are personally killing off humans just to counter my vote. If I weren't sure you were human, I would beg for a vig to hit you.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 10:59:09

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I am starting to feel irritated that you're still making up situations where I am wolf and making the facts fit while you are personally killing off humans just to counter my vote.

Oh yeah, I guess I should clarify that part.

I was always planning to snipe Nitestorm-- if he was leading the Sheriff election vote-- because I couldn't risk him becoming Sheriff when I was Seer.

What I said about countering your vote was a lie intended to disguise my true motivation from the Wolves, since I didn't want them guessing that I was a special.

EDIT: The funny thing is, I only joined this game because I saw Nitestorm had signed up, and I thought it would be fun to let him vote for me ...
Last edited by Ozymandias on 06 Feb 2014, 11:00:42, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 11:00:07

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:1) MEM voted for you early on Day 2, pushing you into the lead with 2 votes, and stayed there the entire day. He doesn't make that vote if he's a wolf and you're a human - he would be killing himself. I don't think he makes that vote if you're both wolves, either. That vote gave me the strong human lean on MEM.

I disagree. I don't think this vote put MEM in much danger, since I argued so strongly against stigmata. I could very easily see Wolf MEM making this vote and then hiding behind Sheriff Ozy for cover.

You're not thinking about this the right way. Wolves need to survive, and in order to do that wolves either need to look human or stay hidden. When necessary, their voting will reflect that need.

If Stigmata is revealed as human, this is what the top of Rictus' Day 1 voting tally looks like:

Rictus wrote:Lynch Voting Totals
Nitestorm - 5 - Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, RaveBomb, Ozymandias
Mister E. Meat - 5 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito
Stigmata - 3 - Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias (retracted)
Admetus - 3 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito (retracted), Rictus, Aldax
Ozymandias - 3 - Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday - 2 - 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron

MEM's not being colored in, to me and probably to most of the other players here, is a big red arrow saying "Hey look! If there's a wolf in this group it's meeee!" You won't be Sheriff forever, not to mention that it wouldn't matter if we simply buried MEM under a pile of votes because...c'mon, no wolf with all of that vote movement going on? Seriously?

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:2) ICB voted for you late on Day 2, pushing you into the lead with 4 votes. If you're human that Day 2 vote looks really bad for ICB, so he's doing this because he either thinks you're a wolf or he knows that you're a wolf.

Again, I disagree. If stigmata is Human, Wolf ICB would have plenty of reason to vote for him, because that would make ICB's Day 1 snipe look a lot less suspicious.

No. If Stigmata is human, wolf-ICB just voted to kill Stigmata after voting to save him the previous day. If ICB thinks or knows that Stigmata is human, he's trying to kill Stigmata solely to make his Day 1 vote look better - an action that more closely fits a wolf agenda. He loses a lot of his human cred with an action like that.

The CORRECT move for ICB if he thinks or knows Stigmata is human is to vote for anyone other than Stigmata on Day 2, under the assumption that you were going to vote Stigmata like I think most of us expected. He comes out smelling like a rose because he tried saving human-Stigmata twice. So regardless of ICB's role, he either thinks or knows Stigmata is a wolf when he makes that vote.

But I can't think of any reason why a Human who felt the way ICB does about returning players wouldn't speak up earlier in that spot, so I'm going to cast a double-layer Iron Clad Burrito lynch vote.

As I said, I'm not defending ICB as human - although contrary to what you believe he is still neutral in my mind - but ICB's role does not reflect on Stigmata's role at all. Human-ICB sticks his neck out for what he believes in, so he could easily be doing this in either role.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 06 Feb 2014, 11:11:13

Ozymandias wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:Ozy's choice of the linked-maul target as his backup gives me conspiracy-theory-feelings toward ~knowing that simple_simon would be dead by morning.

How could the Wolves possibly know that simple_simon would be dead?

The Lovers were both Villagers, and The Cupid is a Villager role.

Ah, I had missed where the Cupid was defined as a villager (I was looking at the role-summation in the rules, but I see it now in the role card). That 99% rules out the scenario where blindsniper and Ozy are wolves running some kind of crazy gambit.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 11:14:21

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Ah, I had missed where the Cupid was defined as a villager (I was looking at the role-summation in the rules, but I see it now in the role card). That 99% rules out the scenario where blindsniper and Ozy are wolves running some kind of crazy gambit.

I'd be floored if Ozy were a wolf here. That would mean that the wolves had the Sheriff role, but Ozy just completely threw it away by false-claiming Seer. It's very difficult to lynch the Sheriff under normal circumstances.

DOM, do you agree with my reasoning or Ozy's with respect to the MEM and ICB votes?

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Feb 2014, 11:20:45

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I am starting to feel irritated that you're still making up situations where I am wolf and making the facts fit while you are personally killing off humans just to counter my vote.

Oh yeah, I guess I should clarify that part.

I was always planning to snipe Nitestorm-- if he was leading the Sheriff election vote-- because I couldn't risk him becoming Sheriff when I was Seer.

What I said about countering your vote was a lie intended to disguise my true motivation from the Wolves, since I didn't want them guessing that I was a special.

EDIT: The funny thing is, I only joined this game because I saw Nitestorm had signed up, and I thought it would be fun to let him vote for me ...

You know, the lie doesn’t actually make me feel better. But I still think you are human, so there's that.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 11:24:58

Hellheart wrote:MEM's not being colored in, to me and probably to most of the other players here, is a big red arrow saying "Hey look! If there's a wolf in this group it's meeee!" You won't be Sheriff forever, not to mention that it wouldn't matter if we simply buried MEM under a pile of votes because...c'mon, no wolf with all of that vote movement going on? Seriously?

Again, I disagree. If Wolf MEM can create a situation where he gets lynched after Human stigmata and Human Ozy get lynched, which I think would have been the most probable outcome, then that's a 2-for-1 lynch trade that Wolves should take EVERY time.

Hellheart wrote:No. If Stigmata is human, wolf-ICB just voted to kill Stigmata after voting to save him the previous day.

But the premise of your argument is incorrect because ICB never claimed he was saving stigmata, just Nitestorm-- in fact, he specifically said that voting for MEM or stigmata was a "random choice."

So since there's no reason why Human ICB wouldn't vote for stigmata on Day 2, there's also no reason why Wolf ICB wouldn't do the same if he knew stigmata were Human.

Because not only would it get me lynched the next day, but as you pointed it out it would probably get MEM lynched the day after that, so assuming ICB and MEM aren't on the same team, Wolf ICB could get three Humans lynched by voting for Human stigmata.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby stigmata » 06 Feb 2014, 11:34:23

You already called it when you got sheriffed by saying that you expected to be lynched. In addition to the seer claim, it's like you're trying to make yourself as valuable as you possibly can to the humans, short of claiming to also be the GM.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 11:36:22

stigmata wrote:You already called it when you got sheriffed by saying that you expected to be lynched. In addition to the seer claim, it's like you're trying to make yourself as valuable as you possibly can to the humans, short of claiming to also be the GM.

Well, I already took over as GM in a game once before, so I wouldn't want to repeat myself ...

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 11:38:07

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:MEM's not being colored in, to me and probably to most of the other players here, is a big red arrow saying "Hey look! If there's a wolf in this group it's meeee!" You won't be Sheriff forever, not to mention that it wouldn't matter if we simply buried MEM under a pile of votes because...c'mon, no wolf with all of that vote movement going on? Seriously?

Again, I disagree. If Wolf MEM can create a situation where he gets lynched after Human stigmata and Human Ozy get lynched, which I think would have been the most probable outcome, then that's a 2-for-1 lynch trade that Wolves should take EVERY time.

People constantly remind me that I shouldn't base my reads on what I think players should do. You're basing your judgement on what you think wolves should do. Wolf-MEM would die eventually if both Stigmata and ICB are human, true, but every day he survives gives the wolves more voting power. Why is MEM making a Day 2 sacrifice here?

After all, human-Stigmata doesn't need to die for the wolves to get you lynched. They just need to get you to kill any human, and they would prefer that human to be somebody that doesn't shed a light on the voting on Day 1. Say, someone like Dferrantino. If MEM is a wolf and Stigmata is human, the death of any other human is a vastly preferable outcome. Then you'd be lynched today, and MEM is still completely hidden until Stigmata finally dies.

Hellheart wrote:No. If Stigmata is human, wolf-ICB just voted to kill Stigmata after voting to save him the previous day.

But the premise of your argument is incorrect because ICB never claimed he was saving stigmata, just Nitestorm-- in fact, he specifically said that voting for MEM or stigmata was a "random choice."

So since there's no reason why Human ICB wouldn't vote for stigmata on Day 2, there's also no reason why Wolf ICB wouldn't do the same if he knew stigmata were Human.

Because not only would it get me lynched the next day, but as you pointed it out it would probably get MEM lynched the day after that, so assuming ICB and MEM aren't on the same team, Wolf ICB could all but guarantee three Human lynches by getting Human stigmata lynched.

Your counter-argument makes two assumptions that are far from guaranteed:

1) The wolves believed that human-Stigmata doesn't get lynched without their intervention
2) Every other wolf would have looked more suspicious than ICB did making that vote

Assumption 1 also means that Dferrantino wasn't a wolf-pushed wagon, which would surprise me. Assumption 2 sounds like it needs a WTC-conspiracy-theory level of scenario-building to make sense. If ICB is a wolf then why doesn't that vote come from another wolf so ICB can lose some heat?

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 12:00:57

EDIT: Read things wrong. This made no sense.
Last edited by Hellheart on 06 Feb 2014, 12:02:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 12:02:05

Hellheart wrote:If ICB is a wolf then why doesn't that vote come from another wolf so ICB can lose some heat?

Because, as I said, I believe Wolf ICB voting for Human stigmata would take away heat from him.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Aldax » 06 Feb 2014, 12:08:01

San wrote:Too many wolves.

Hellheart, FurinMirado, Ryvvn?
MisterE.Meat, AugenVonSauron?

Let's test if the pattern continues today.

lynch Aldax


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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 12:10:27

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:I am starting to feel irritated that you're still making up situations where I am wolf and making the facts fit.

Not sure why you're using the plural "situations," since I think I've pretty consistently advanced a single scenario for why I suspect you: your multiple Sheriff votes for Nitestorm.

(1) On Day 0, you were the first player to cast a second vote for a Sheriff candidate.

(2) On Day 1, you were the first player to cast a third vote for a Sheriff candidate.

So those were two pretty significant bandwagon-propagating votes.

Now is it possible that the Wolves advanced those bandwagons by having DOM vote for Nitestorm on Day 0, and, say, Augie vote for Nitestorm on Day 1?

Sure, but it seems simpler to suspect that one Wolf did it both times for consistency.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 12:13:20

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:If ICB is a wolf then why doesn't that vote come from another wolf so ICB can lose some heat?

Because, as I said, I believe Wolf ICB voting for Human stigmata would take away heat from him.

Ohhhh, I see, because voting to kill humans is a great way to get human credibility!

If ICB is a wolf, there are two scenarios. One where Stigmata is human, and one where Stigmata is a wolf:

1) Wolf-ICB, instead of voting elsewhere and having the other wolves get human-Stigmata lynched, voted for human-Stigmata himself in a way that drew a lot of attention from the more analytical players. This somehow brings heat off of him.

2) Wolf-ICB, who knows that wolf-Stigmata is getting a lot of heat and is likely to be lynched, votes for wolf-Stigmata because his Day 1 vote is going to look wolfy as hell once Stigmata is revealed and he needs to give himself some wiggle room.

Out of these two scenarios, which one is more plausible? This has been the crux of my entire argument from the start and you've been dancing around it.

EDIT: Also in scenario 2, wolf-ICB's vote might SAVE wolf-Stigmata. And it probably did.


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