Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 12:22:24

Hellheart wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:If ICB is a wolf then why doesn't that vote come from another wolf so ICB can lose some heat?

Because, as I said, I believe Wolf ICB voting for Human stigmata would take away heat from him.

Ohhhh, I see, because voting to kill humans is a great way to get human credibility!

It is when that Human is suspected to be a Wolf that you sniped to protect.

Hellheart wrote:If ICB is a wolf, there are two scenarios. One where Stigmata is human, and one where Stigmata is a wolf:

1) Wolf-ICB, instead of voting elsewhere and having the other wolves get human-Stigmata lynched, voted for human-Stigmata himself in a way that drew a lot of attention from the more analytical players. This somehow brings heat off of him.

2) Wolf-ICB, who knows that wolf-Stigmata is getting a lot of heat and is likely to be lynched, votes for wolf-Stigmata because his Day 1 vote is going to look wolfy as hell once Stigmata is revealed and he needs to give himself some wiggle room.

Out of these two scenarios, which one is more plausible? This has been the crux of my entire argument from the start and you've been dancing around it.

My argument has nothing to do with whether Human-stigmata or Wolf-stigmata is more likely in reality, so scenario (2) is irrelevant to this discussion.

I am simply arguing that Wolf-ICB would have plenty of reason to vote for Human-stigmata. Nothing you have said has made me think otherwise.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 12:26:06

Fine. I'll speak your language then.

Ozymandias wrote:TOP NINE WOLF SUSPECTS

(1) Simple_Simon OR (2) Stigmata

Given that I think the "Sheriff Nitestorm Gambit" was in play (to get me lynched on Day 2), I think only one Wolf voted to lynch me. Right now, I think that Wolf is a little more likely to be Simon than Stigmata.

Simon is a dead human. Stigmata is your next highest wolf suspect. Why are you trying to lynch somebody else over him?

You're pushing ICB's wagon as the Sheriff and the Seer. That stuff matters. Knowing Stigmata's role also tells us so much about the voting on both Day 1 and Day 2. Lynch the wolfiest players first, since by definition they're more likely to be wolves.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 12:35:19

Hellheart wrote:Fine. I'll speak your language then.

Ozymandias wrote:TOP NINE WOLF SUSPECTS

(1) Simple_Simon OR (2) Stigmata

Given that I think the "Sheriff Nitestorm Gambit" was in play (to get me lynched on Day 2), I think only one Wolf voted to lynch me. Right now, I think that Wolf is a little more likely to be Simon than Stigmata.

Simon is a dead human. Stigmata is your next highest wolf suspect. Why are you trying to lynch somebody else over him?

That was yesterday. Today is another day, with new Wolf suspect rankings that I won't divulge until EOD.

Also, I'm not defending stigmata. Though I am curious why you haven't voted for him yet ... ?

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 12:45:58

Do you seriously think I'll vote anybody other than Stigmata? I haven't exactly been waiting until minutes before EOD to cast my vote, either. If I withhold my vote, the early voting record is more organic. That's also why I don't like your nominating a second wagon - let the players that aren't likely/confirmed human do that. It will give us additional information and a richer voting record down the road.

EDIT: You just let Stigmata live. I don't want you to do it again if he's a top candidate because he's just going to keep being a top candidate. That will also distort the voting record. There will be more resistance to an ICB wagon than a Stigmata wagon.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 12:54:28

Lynch Vote Tally:
Aldax - 3 - San, Penalty (x2)
Iron Clad Burrito - 2 - Ozymandias (x2)
Ravebomb - 2 - Penalty (x2)
stigmata - 2 - Furin, Zark
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
San - 1 - Aldax
Still to Vote - 15

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 06 Feb 2014, 12:55:39

Hellheart wrote:
DastardlyOldMan wrote:Ah, I had missed where the Cupid was defined as a villager (I was looking at the role-summation in the rules, but I see it now in the role card). That 99% rules out the scenario where blindsniper and Ozy are wolves running some kind of crazy gambit.

I'd be floored if Ozy were a wolf here. That would mean that the wolves had the Sheriff role, but Ozy just completely threw it away by false-claiming Seer. It's very difficult to lynch the Sheriff under normal circumstances.

DOM, do you agree with my reasoning or Ozy's with respect to the MEM and ICB votes?

Valid point, and given that the Cupid is considered a villager role, I'm now fairly certain that Ozy is a vill-- no, I just can't say it - there's some surprise twist that I'm obviously not seeing. :lol:

Seriously - regarding the reasoning, I think you're both grasping a bit, but I really haven't read the discussion thoroughly enough to understand & digest the argument on either side. It's also early-game, so by nature, we're not going to have particuarly solid analysis, just some assumption-based considerations. I do think there's something in the vote movements from Day 1 and 2, I just haven't been able to dig into it yet. My votes at this point are still 50% random stab, 50% seeing where bandwagons don't build (I ~try to look at smaller wagons to determine where wolf votes didn't end up as much as I do figuring out where the wolf votes are on the bigger wagons).

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 13:02:25

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Seriously - regarding the reasoning, I think you're both grasping a bit, but I really haven't read the discussion thoroughly enough to understand & digest the argument on either side.

That's a fair criticism, I can accept that. I also think I made one or two posts too many arguing the subject. I forgot how hard it is to change Ozy's mind, and instead I ended up spamming the thread. I won't make that mistake again, hopefully.

There's definitely going to be wolves in the off-wagons, especially on Day 1. I think dferrantino's wagon is a great place to look on Day 2, especially since his wagon just shot up after San got two votes. It's just difficult for me to know where the main wagon wolf votes are when the affiliation of the primary wagon on both days has yet to be resolved. San could easily just be a human caught in the crossfire, but it's impossible to speculate on that if Stigmata's role is still in question.

I need to spend time reading the previous day to get some more tone-reads. I also have a moderate human read on Necklessone, which is why I fakepeeked him human.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Mister E. Meat » 06 Feb 2014, 13:41:28

If I'm correctly understanding all the back and forth between Ozy and Hellheart, won't lynching stigmata clarify a lot of things here? I had that as a vote but then undid it because maybe I'm missing some sort of subtlety in the argument.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 13:58:29

Mister E. Meat wrote:If I'm correctly understanding all the back and forth between Ozy and Hellheart, won't lynching stigmata clarify a lot of things here? I had that as a vote but then undid it because maybe I'm missing some sort of subtlety in the argument.

It won't make ICB a human or a wolf (EDIT: If Stigmata is a wolf that does make ICB look more wolfy, but it doesn't make him a lock wolf), but it will tell us a hell of a lot about you, San, and a number of the timing votes throughout the day. It also removes the only player I feel strongly enough about to push. I think tomorrow's lynch record will be very telling - who do players think is the most likely wolf after that besides ICB?

Reading yesterday and a part of today, I have very nebulous wolf suspicions of Furin and Smirker. In the middle of Day 2, Furin ties up Dferrantino with Stigmata at 3 citing a "gut feeling" and I hate posts like the one he made this morning, which had this doozy:

If Stigmata is a Wolf:
Ozy is probably a Wolf. His vote saved Stigmata at the last minute due to him being Sheriff. I'm still not sure that Ozy was actually supposed to be the true successor either. The story made it sound like Ozy stole succession from the rightful heir, which would be an interesting Wolf role. He also Seer claimed which we can't prove without the real Seer coming forward. They won't do that without finding a Wolf or having a few days of Humans to list.

The Stigmata-human vs. Stigmata-wolf portion of his post sounds like a prepared statement. Seriously, read the post for yourself - when I first read it I thought he was purposely being a selective reader and completely dense (a secret wolf role? Really?), but it's surrounded by enough serious-looking stuff for it to potentially slide by.

Smirker's posts on Day 2 feel off to me, but what bothers me more is a very late throwaway vote for MEM after retracting his early vote for Ozymandias. If he retracts his vote to save it for something useful, tossing it on a fairly likely human that's completely out of the picture feels out of place.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Visigoth » 06 Feb 2014, 14:29:39

Hellheart. Nothing particularly strong or even mildly strong. And of course nothing that would survive 15 posts about.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 14:32:54

So I'm going to assume that the Witch is going to revive me, especially once she learns I'm Human, and plan my actions accordingly.

If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Smirker » 06 Feb 2014, 14:40:04

Ozymandias wrote:So I'm going to assume that the Witch is going to revive me, especially once she learns I'm Human, and plan my actions accordingly.

If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.

I would encourage the Witch to do this. Considering that spheno said the Witch would be able to tell if the player was a Human or wolf before they used up the power - it should be a no-brainer. If the Witch is timid they can state in the power that they are no bringing back wolves.

I suppose it'd be bad form to vote out Ravebomb since he's already asked for a WOG, but as that is likely doom (and more likely a villager because he's asking for the WOG); it'd be a choice I could be comfy with as it costs little that wouldn't be lost anyway.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 14:49:28

Smirker wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:So I'm going to assume that the Witch is going to revive me, especially once she learns I'm Human, and plan my actions accordingly.

If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.

I would encourage the Witch to do this. Considering that spheno said the Witch would be able to tell if the player was a Human or wolf before they used up the power - it should be a no-brainer. If the Witch is timid they can state in the power that they are no bringing back wolves.

I suppose it'd be bad form to vote out Ravebomb since he's already asked for a WOG, but as that is likely doom (and more likely a villager because he's asking for the WOG); it'd be a choice I could be comfy with as it costs little that wouldn't be lost anyway.

I think Spheno should just go ahead and remove Rave from the game.

Hard to replace him without everyone making assumptions about his team.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby sphenodont » 06 Feb 2014, 14:53:13

I was just waiting until I got home to do that.

GM Note: Ravebomb (villager) is out of the game, and is ineligble for lynching, mauling, poisoning, seering, searing, or resuscitating.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Clearasday » 06 Feb 2014, 15:11:29

Sorry I haven't been around much this game. I can assure you I'll try to get more into this as the game goes on. Or else you can kill me. Right now I'm backtracking and thinking that ICB might be a wolf. Because they wouldn't kill rekard if he wasn't on to something. Right? Also his attitude is a little different today.

Oh and Ozy if you hadn't claimed today I was totally going to fakeclaim seer and try to take the hit. Probably best I didn't though.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Feb 2014, 15:13:52

Ozymandias wrote:If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.


Well, aside from the fact that you're trying to lynch a third human in a row, no, not really.
But I do support your revival.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Feb 2014, 15:14:38

Clearasday wrote:Sorry I haven't been around much this game. I can assure you I'll try to get more into this as the game goes on. Or else you can kill me. Right now I'm backtracking and thinking that ICB might be a wolf. Because they wouldn't kill rekard if he wasn't on to something. Right? Also his attitude is a little different today.


I wonder why.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 15:23:04

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.


Well, aside from the fact that you're trying to lynch a third human in a row, no, not really.

Ouch ... burn!

But hey, there's no reason for you to just play defense today.

If you have any thoughts on who we should lynch, I'd love to hear them.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Feb 2014, 15:24:30

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.


Well, aside from the fact that you're trying to lynch a third human in a row, no, not really.

Ouch ... burn!

But hey, there's no reason for you to just play defense today.

If you have any thoughts on who we should lynch, I'd love to hear them.


Working on that. Most of my posts during daytime hours are done from a phone now, so I just read and don't analyze. But I'm in a position where I think my vote's going to have to be close hold until near EOD.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 15:29:33

Lynch Vote Tally:
Aldax - 3 - San, Penalty (x2)
Iron Clad Burrito - 3 - Ozymandias (x2), Clearasday
stigmata - 2 - Furin, Zark
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
San - 1 - Aldax
Still to Vote - 12

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby stigmata » 06 Feb 2014, 15:32:11

Ozymandias wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.


Well, aside from the fact that you're trying to lynch a third human in a row, no, not really.

Ouch ... burn!

But hey, there's no reason for you to just play defense today.

If you have any thoughts on who we should lynch, I'd love to hear them.

I have a suggestion, but I don't think you'll like it.




... Anyway, I'm going to have to vote defensively again today, I don't really have any other choice. Aldax. Phone vote, I can't get the colour to work, sorry.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 15:49:14

Stigmata to tie the 2nd place wagons is fine with me for now.

I think ICB and Stigmata both being wolves is more likely than any other scenario. If Stigmata isn't a wolf, wolf-ICB is casting a vote on MEM that late for...? Having said that, though, it's a simple fact that knowing Stigmata's role will help voting analysis more.

I also think that Stigmata is more likely to be a wolf than ICB because I refuse to believe that the top-5 wagons on Day 1 are human and MEM seemed to be willing to let Stigmata's role be revealed yesterday. He hasn't voted for Stigmata today as of yet, although he has stated his initial intention to.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 16:03:56

Ozymandias wrote:So I'm going to assume that the Witch is going to revive me, especially once she learns I'm Human, and plan my actions accordingly.

If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.

One other request for the Witch: after you confirm my Humanity and revive me, please use your power to reveal your identity to me, so that I don't waste my final vision tomorrow night on you. Thanks.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 16:08:23

Wait a minute. Why did Stigmata cast his defensive vote for Aldax instead of ICB? They were both at 3 votes at the time.

Anybody who argues that Aldax is a more likely wolf than ICB is full of shit.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby necklessone » 06 Feb 2014, 16:09:12

Ozymandias wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:So I'm going to assume that the Witch is going to revive me, especially once she learns I'm Human, and plan my actions accordingly.

If anyone can think of a reason why the Witch shouldn't revive me, please speak up. Thanks.

One other request for the Witch: after you confirm my Humanity and revive me, please use your power to reveal your identity to me, so that I don't waste my final vision tomorrow night on you. Thanks.

Though maybe tomorrow is the day to talk about this, if Ozy is saved by the witch tonight the witch should also consider poisoning tomorrow night. This would allow full use of the powers while still allowing Ozy to snipe reveal your name to provide a confirmed human.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby necklessone » 06 Feb 2014, 16:11:51

Hellheart wrote:Wait a minute. Why did Stigmata cast his defensive vote for Aldax instead of ICB? They were both at 3 votes at the time.

Anybody who argues that Aldax is a more likely wolf than ICB is full of shit.

If Stigmata assumes his biggest danger is Ozy sniping him, putting votes on ICB is counterproductive.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Blindsniper83 » 06 Feb 2014, 16:12:10

sphenodont wrote:I was just waiting until I got home to do that.

GM Note: Ravebomb (villager) is out of the game, and is ineligble for lynching, mauling, poisoning, seering, searing, or resuscitating.


can we make him a 3rd wheel lover??
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 16:12:21

necklessone wrote:Though maybe tomorrow is the day to talk about this, if Ozy is saved by the witch tonight the witch should also consider poisoning tomorrow night. This would allow full use of the powers while still allowing Ozy to snipe reveal your name to provide a confirmed human.

Not sure we need to commit to that plan, since the Witch can always snipe reveal her target at EOD right before she kills him.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby necklessone » 06 Feb 2014, 16:15:26

Ozymandias wrote:
necklessone wrote:Though maybe tomorrow is the day to talk about this, if Ozy is saved by the witch tonight the witch should also consider poisoning tomorrow night. This would allow full use of the powers while still allowing Ozy to snipe reveal your name to provide a confirmed human.

Not sure we need to commit to that plan, since the Witch can always snipe reveal her target at EOD right before she kills him.

True, but this avoids any scenarios where the witch has to role claim to avoid being lynched if they're put under pressure before they're ready to poison.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 16:18:40

necklessone wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Wait a minute. Why did Stigmata cast his defensive vote for Aldax instead of ICB? They were both at 3 votes at the time.

Anybody who argues that Aldax is a more likely wolf than ICB is full of shit.

If Stigmata assumes his biggest danger is Ozy sniping him, putting votes on ICB is counterproductive.

Ozy's sitting on ICB right now. I'm assuming that Ozy is not going to move to Aldax over Stigmata. If Stigmata and ICB are tied in votes, Stigmata has a chance of surviving - all Ozy has to do is sit on ICB. I would not be surprised if that was his choice.

So why didn't Stigmata vote ICB? Is it a coincidence that Aldax got that 3rd vote from San? Why does this feel like yesterday all over again?

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 16:21:37

Bah, too many rhetorical questions.

The only reason I can think of for Stigmata to drop his vote on Aldax over ICB - who is the other player that Ozy is interested in lynching and thus Stigmata's best chance of survival - is because both of them are wolves and wolf-wolf wagons, while hilarious, are not good for the wolves.

San's voting for Aldax suddenly looks super-dirty given that he put the first vote on Dferrantino as well.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby necklessone » 06 Feb 2014, 16:22:01

Hellheart wrote:
necklessone wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Wait a minute. Why did Stigmata cast his defensive vote for Aldax instead of ICB? They were both at 3 votes at the time.

Anybody who argues that Aldax is a more likely wolf than ICB is full of shit.

If Stigmata assumes his biggest danger is Ozy sniping him, putting votes on ICB is counterproductive.

Ozy's sitting on ICB right now. I'm assuming that Ozy is not going to move to Aldax over Stigmata. If Stigmata and ICB are tied in votes, Stigmata has a chance of surviving - all Ozy has to do is sit on ICB. I would not be surprised if that was his choice.

So why didn't Stigmata vote ICB? Is it a coincidence that Aldax got that 3rd vote from San? Why does this feel like yesterday all over again?

Ozy isn't known for sitting on his votes. It's a reasonable assumption that at the end of the day his vote won't be on ICB.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Augenvonsauron » 06 Feb 2014, 16:22:16

Augie once more running late to the party, especially after trying to get caught up on reading the arguments made by the folks in town. Grandma was having lots of troubles at home and Augie had a Picnicbasket full of tasty jelly sandwiches to grind Grandma's pills into. In terms of the arguments presented, Augie was inclined to follow He'll heart's reasoning.finding facts about Stigmata would be benefitial.

Ooc: typing this on ipad sucks.... Damn you autocorrect!

/e for some reason the dumb pad bolded benefitial, instead of stigmata.
/ee Grrrrrrr

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby necklessone » 06 Feb 2014, 16:30:53

That all being said, I can buy ICB as a wolf.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 16:32:32

necklessone wrote:Ozy isn't known for sitting on his votes. It's a reasonable assumption that at the end of the day his vote won't be on ICB.

I was not aware of that, actually. I'm thinking of the Pratchett game where he didn't change his votes much.

I mean, I know as the Sheriff he would make his votes late, but unexpectedly staying on his initial vote is just as good as moving if people expect him to move.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 16:37:48

Lynch Vote Tally:
Aldax - 4 - San, Penalty (x2), stigmata
Iron Clad Burrito - 4 - Ozymandias (x2), Clearasday, necklessone
stigmata - 4 - Furin, Zark, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
San - 1 - Aldax
Still to Vote - 8 - Blindsniper83, ICB, MEM, Omega, Rictus, Ryvvn, Smirker, twdog

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Feb 2014, 17:10:35

Stigmata.

No, I'm not sharing any insight with you all until you come to your senses. We've watched 2 humans die because Ozymandias thinks I'm a wolf, and voted those humans out to counter my votes. So obviously, since I've been the last vote on all the 2nd-place finishes so far, I'm a wolf.

You should all further this theory by piling on Aldax now, so I can be the last voter on Stigmata.

Go sit in a corner and think about what you've done.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 06 Feb 2014, 17:19:47

Honestly this is a bizarro universe where I've assumed the role of Ozymandias and Ozy has assumed the role of Nitestorm, except in this case Nitestorm is a confirmed human and you all have decided to listed to him.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 17:28:48

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Honestly this is a bizarro universe where I've assumed the role of Ozymandias and Ozy has assumed the role of Nitestorm, except in this case Nitestorm is a confirmed human and you all have decided to listed to him.

This made me laugh.

Ryvvn, where are you? You aren't planning one of those last-second vote snipes again, are you?

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 17:34:10

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Honestly this is a bizarro universe where I've assumed the role of Ozymandias and Ozy has assumed the role of Nitestorm, except in this case Nitestorm is a confirmed human and you all have decided to listed to him.

Wow, comparing me to Nitestorm might be the worst thing you've ever said to me.

In all seriousness, unlike Nitestorm, there's a reason why I'm voting for you (as I've already explained)-- your Day 0 and Day 1 Sheriff votes for Nitestorm .

And for those of you who don't think the Wolves put much thought into the Sheriff vote, perhaps you should consider this interesting fact--

Every player who received Day 0 Sheriff votes is a Confirmed Human:

DAY 0 SHERIFF VOTE
No Sheriff - 9 - Admetus, FurinMirado, necklessone, Ozymandias, Rictus, Smirker, Hellheart, Stigmata, 7-zark-7, Simple_Simon
Nitestorm - 3 - Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
dferrantino - 3 - dferrantino, Rictus, Ryvvn
Simple_Simon - 2 - Visigoth, rekard
rekard - 1 - Clearasday, Ozymandias
Ravebomb - 1 - Blindsniper83
Admetus - 0 - Ozymandias
Did Not Vote - 8 - Aldax, Augie, Meta4, MEM, Omega, Rave, San, twdog

So it seems pretty clear to me that the Wolves had a deliberate Sheriff strategy in mind, which I believe involved trying to get Nitestorm elected.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 17:39:04

Ozymandias wrote:Every player who received Day 0 Sheriff votes is a Confirmed Human:

Well yeah, your voting has certainly helped that bit of analysis along.

That said, Zark's bit of analysis earlier today that looked at the parallels between Day 0 "No Sheriff" and Day 1 "Nitestorm" did make a lot of sense. It's just easier when I hear it from somebody other than you, since you do have a "trying to kill Ozy" paranoia that can make it difficult to believe you.

EDIT: The deliberate strategy was obvious - "No Sheriff" into hopefully forcing the Hunter claim. When the Hunter didn't claim, then some of them went to Nitestorm. That's why Zark's analysis makes so much more sense to me.
Last edited by Hellheart on 06 Feb 2014, 17:40:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby twdog » 06 Feb 2014, 17:39:24

Aldax to make a tie. Not sure about ICB, but I slightly lean towards him being a wolf. That said, I'm more interested in what happens with Ozy, tbh
you hear an odd muffled noise in the shoggoth tank

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Mister E. Meat » 06 Feb 2014, 17:43:48

Not that I dislike following Ozy (see past games) but in this case given 1) the strange post from stigmata on day 2 and 2) that others are suspicious of him, I'm comfortable pushing stigmata into the lead. I guess if he really cares, he can move his vote to ICB to tie, but that's just going to make me want to lynch him harder tomorrow.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 17:50:16

Lynch Vote Tally:
stigmata - 6 - Furin, Zark, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat
Aldax - 5 - Penalty (x2), San, stigmata, twdog
Iron Clad Burrito - 4 - Ozymandias (x2), Clearasday, necklessone
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
San - 1 - Aldax
Still to Vote - 5 - Blindsniper83, Omega, Rictus, Ryvvn, Smirker

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 17:51:40

I chuckled when I looked at the Day 0 "No Sheriff" voters and saw that Smirker and FurinMirado are both there. I would love to have caught both of them on tone-reads alone.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Feb 2014, 17:59:07

Had a horrible morning of sickness, followed by sleeping away the rest of the day, so quickly placing a preliminary vote on twdog (RETRACTED) while I go over everything that's happened in the past ~24 hours....
Last edited by Ryvvn on 06 Feb 2014, 19:00:03, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Blindsniper83 » 06 Feb 2014, 18:01:25

Ryvvn wrote:Had a horrible morning of sickness, followed by sleeping away the rest of the day, so quickly placing a preliminary vote on twdog while I go over everything that's happened in the past ~24 hours....

TFIFY

Edited to add spaces
Last edited by Blindsniper83 on 06 Feb 2014, 18:03:03, edited 1 time in total.
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby stigmata » 06 Feb 2014, 18:02:18

Hellheart wrote:Wait a minute. Why did Stigmata cast his defensive vote for Aldax instead of ICB? They were both at 3 votes at the time.

Anybody who argues that Aldax is a more likely wolf than ICB is full of shit.

Didn't notice the new vote against insane clown burrito. I'm obviously keeping an eye on it, but it's a busy day so I'm having a hard time working out the best defensive vote.

Even at this moment, though, it'd be totally irrational for me to change my vote.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Blindsniper83 » 06 Feb 2014, 18:04:21

ICB
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 18:05:31

Hellheart wrote:The deliberate strategy was obvious - "No Sheriff" into hopefully forcing the Hunter claim.

That's where you and I once again differ-- I doubt the Wolves wanted the Hunter to claim, because I think it's a good strategy for the Humans.

In fact, if I were a Wolf, and the Hunter did claim on Day 1, I think I probably would have voted to maul him anyway on Night 1.

Anyway, I don't want to rehash that debate, but the relevance to the current situation is I that consider Wolves less likely to have voted early for No Sheriff on Day 0.

Though once the bandwagon took off, no doubt one or two piled on.

Also keep in mind that 8 players didn't even vote on Day 0, so a couple of those were likely Wolves.


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