Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

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Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby sphenodont » 06 Feb 2014, 19:23:59

stigmata and Iron Clad Burrito sat in resignation as the seconds ticked off the clock. They looked up at the chalkboard where the informal tally was being counted up — and where Ozymandias was not-so-sneakily rooting around in the Voting Bucket.

Time ran out and Ozy tried to stuff another ballot into the bucket, but with all eyes on him, it didn't work so well.

"Umm... yeah," Ozy said. "Well, it doesn't matter. stig, you're out."

stigmata sighed. "There's a shocker. And so is this!" He pulled out a stick of dynamite and lit it. "I won't give you the satisfaction of taking me down, scumballs!"

It fell to the coronor to identify him by his teeth, which thankfully were relatively intact.

stigmata - wolf - lynched

[+] Voting History
San votes for Aldax
FurinMirado votes for stigmata
7-zark-7 votes for stigmata
Ozymandias votes for Iron Clad Burrito (retracted)
DastardlyOldMan votes for Ryvvn
Meta4 votes for DastardlyOldMan
Aldax votes for San
Visigoth votes for Hellheart
Clearasday votes for Iron Clad Burrito
stigmata votes for Aldax
Hellheart votes for stigmata
Augenvonsauron votes for stigmata
necklessone votes for Iron Clad Burrito
Iron Clad Burrito votes for stigmata
twdog votes for Aldax
Mister E. Meat votes for stigmata
Ryvvn votes for twdog (retracted)
BlindSniper83 votes for Iron Clad Burrito
Smirker votes for stigmata
Omega votes for stigmata (retracted)
Rictus votes for Iron Clad Burrito
Omega votes for Iron Clad Burrito
Ryvvn votes for stigmata


Voting Totals
stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega (retracted), Ryvvn
Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias x2 (retracted), Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
San - 1 - Aldax
Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
twdog - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)
Did not vote: no one! cookie for everyone!

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby sphenodont » 06 Feb 2014, 19:24:58

(sorry, keeping it short. I can flesh this out more in the morning, but I am being told I've spent too much time at the computer tonight. :flail: )

Everyone else is alive this morning! Huzzah!

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 19:30:40

Oh thank God. I was worried when I saw how few off-wagon votes there were.

Unlike last time, I have zero interest in directing voting and analysis to start the day. I'll chip in later in the afternoon.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 19:35:51

So in all the last-second confusion I forgot to edit my target list, so I didn't actually Seer who I said I was going to Seer-- d'oh!

Since I did not Seer a Wolf, I'm not going to reveal who I did Seer until EOD.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Feb 2014, 19:44:28

For the record, I also did not seer a wolf; but will also not be revealing who else I did not seer until EoD.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 19:45:43

Ryvvn wrote:For the record, I also did not seer a wolf; but will also not be revealing who else I did not seer until EoD.

For the record, I'm now on the record for saying that people need to stop ripping off my shit.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Feb 2014, 19:53:16

Rictus

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 20:06:26

7-Zark-7 wrote:So are you pondering what I'm pondering?

I think so, Zark, but isn't using glue on Legos a little taboo?

Now personally, I think Sphenodont has too much power already.

I didn't agree with this until he started stealing power from Admetus. I think that was going one step too far.

this is why we can't have nice things.

Well yeah, obviously your Sombrero was stolen too, but you're changing the subject.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Mister E. Meat » 06 Feb 2014, 20:21:04

Ozymandias wrote:So in all the last-second confusion I forgot to edit my target list, so I didn't actually Seer who I said I was going to Seer-- d'oh!

Since I did not Seer a Wolf, I'm not going to reveal who I did Seer until EOD.

Can I ask why? If you found a human, you are going to reveal him. To the best of my knowledge there is no reason not to share who is human as far as I can tell. Waiting until EOD risks that you will forget.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 20:23:58

Mister E. Meat wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:So in all the last-second confusion I forgot to edit my target list, so I didn't actually Seer who I said I was going to Seer-- d'oh!

Since I did not Seer a Wolf, I'm not going to reveal who I did Seer until EOD.

Can I ask why? If you found a human, you are going to reveal him. To the best of my knowledge there is no reason not to share who is human as far as I can tell. Waiting until EOD risks that you will forget.

I won't forget. Though depending on the situation, I may not wait until EOD.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Hellheart » 06 Feb 2014, 20:51:00

Mister E. Meat wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:So in all the last-second confusion I forgot to edit my target list, so I didn't actually Seer who I said I was going to Seer-- d'oh!

Since I did not Seer a Wolf, I'm not going to reveal who I did Seer until EOD.

Can I ask why? If you found a human, you are going to reveal him. To the best of my knowledge there is no reason not to share who is human as far as I can tell. Waiting until EOD risks that you will forget.

Basically it's to see whether that human becomes a bandwagon, and how people interact with that human. It's a way to potentially catch wolves pushing forward a counter-wagon.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 06 Feb 2014, 21:22:10

So ICB is still one of my top Wolf suspects, and I may wind up voting for him again.

My other two top suspects are currently San and Omega.

This is based on an analysis of the top three bandwagons on Day 2:

DAY 2 LYNCH
stigmata - 7 - Ozymandias, Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, necklessone, Iron Clad Burrito, 7-zark-7, Rictus, dferrantino
dferrantino - 7 - San, Augenvonsauron, FurinMirado, stigmata, twdog, Ozymandias x 2
San - 2 - Simple_Simon, dferrantino, Ozymandias x 2, Omega

EDIT: I should note that Omega's vote two hours before EOD made it a three-way 5-5-5 tie, so the vote was a lot closer than the final tally indicates.

As you can see, three of the four players who voted for San are confirmed Humans.

Now this may have been because Wolves didn't want to vote for a returning player-- but given that one of their own was in danger, I think that's unlikely.

I think it's more likely that either San OR Omega is a Wolf.

The case against San: started Day 2 dferrantino bandwagon, started Day 3 Aldax penalty-enhanced bandwagon that stigmata joined.

The case against Omega: late Day 2 vote for San instead of stigmata, late Day 3 vote away from stigmata.

Hmm, I think I'll vote to lynch San now so that he has a fair chance to defend himself.
Last edited by Ozymandias on 07 Feb 2014, 10:26:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ryvvn » 06 Feb 2014, 21:55:55

I suppose I should explain why I'm currently on Rictus:

  • D1. I think he might be a wolf hiding on the soon-to-be mauled Admetus, safe place for a wolf to hide if the top two lynch candidates are humans
  • D2. Perhaps looking to buy human cred should Stigmata have been lynched, likely to be at least one wolf on that wagon, currently leaning on it being him
  • D3. Pushed up ICB, instead of voting Stigmata again, though potentially swayed by arguments
Subject: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds wrote:
Rictus wrote:
Omega wrote:Stigmata seems like a very logical choice, but for whatever reason, it seems like Ozy might be on to something with ICB...

Hrmm...


I agree with this.

For some reason, the more I see from ICB the more I suspect him.

I think stigmata is wolfy. Aldax is a convenient scapegoat. And I don't have a strong wolf feel on ICB. But it's enough where I'm fine with pushing him up to tie w stigmata.

Iron clad burrito.

This does not vibe with me; vote for the guy you think is wolfy, especially after voting for him for the near kill the previous day!

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby San » 07 Feb 2014, 01:10:19

Hurm.

To the people ascribing superhuman bandwagon powers to me, please stop. It's embarrassing. It's totally not difficult to start a bandwagon when one was the FIRST person to lynch vote on Day 3, and effectively the FIRST on Day 2 (was actually the third, but the two earlier voters namely Ozymandias and Smirker retracted their vote).

Aldax was bait to test a pattern. Ravebomb would have served as well.

Ozymandias makes so much noise that it's pretty impossible to analyse other people's behaviour / voting pattern.

Ozymandias suggest Cupid role-claim.
- Conveniently Blindsniper83 does so 4 minutes later.
- Note there is nothing stopping Cupid from being a Wolf, as Cupid has an extra win condition if the Lovers are kept secret.

Ozymandias goes on and on about needing a Witch res because he is the Seer.
- Conveniently no one dies that night.
- Did the wolves maul Ozymandias? Did the witch save him?
- Did the wolves not maul? Can they even do that?
- Is Ozymandias the actual Seer? If I say I'm pretty sure he's not, does that make me a maul target?

Hurm. Maybe it is time to test if I have a superhuman bandwagon power. Wolves, here's another chance!

Lynch Ozymandias.

Here's one more thought. If the witch did save Ozymandias, that means he was brought back from the dead.

Undead.

Vampire.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ryvvn » 07 Feb 2014, 02:21:18

San wrote:Note there is nothing stopping Cupid from being a Wolf, as Cupid has an extra win condition if the Lovers are kept secret.

I'm certainly not going to disagree with some of the points you are making; however, the Cupid role card does specifically say that the Cupid role would belong to a villager (human).

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ryvvn » 07 Feb 2014, 02:23:55

San wrote:Did the wolves not maul? Can they even do that?

Spheno, I'd also like to know the answer to this.

Since we now know that wolves can maul their own, can we rightly assume they may also choose no maul?

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ryvvn » 07 Feb 2014, 02:29:30

...looking over the cards again, I noticed that the Witch card is the only special role which does not explicitly state that it would belong to a villager; I'm not reading anything into that, yet, just simply pointing it out.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby FurinMirado » 07 Feb 2014, 03:44:12

In theory, this should be easy. If Ozymandias is not the true Seer, then the true Seer needs to come forward today. He can provide us:

1. A Wolf kill.
-the true Seer counter-claims, we lynch Ozymandias who is revealed as being a Wolf

2. 3 days of night targets. Unless the Seer is really unlucky we should have 1 or 2 confirmed Humans among the players that are still alive.



So barring a counter-claim to Seer, I am voting San. His vote for Aldax yesterday just didn't sit well with me. Aldax already had 2 penalty votes so it was an easy way to create an instant bandwagon. A lot of us have the tendency to push for ties, so if the Aldax bandwagon lagged behind someone was bound to push it up again. If that failed, stigmata could put his vote on Aldax to keep it going.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Rictus » 07 Feb 2014, 05:28:33

Ryvvn wrote:I suppose I should explain why I'm currently on Rictus:

  • D1. I think he might be a wolf hiding on the soon-to-be mauled Admetus, safe place for a wolf to hide if the top two lynch candidates are humans
  • D2. Perhaps looking to buy human cred should Stigmata have been lynched, likely to be at least one wolf on that wagon, currently leaning on it being him
  • D3. Pushed up ICB, instead of voting Stigmata again, though potentially swayed by arguments
Subject: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds wrote:
Rictus wrote:
Omega wrote:Stigmata seems like a very logical choice, but for whatever reason, it seems like Ozy might be on to something with ICB...

Hrmm...


I agree with this.

For some reason, the more I see from ICB the more I suspect him.

I think stigmata is wolfy. Aldax is a convenient scapegoat. And I don't have a strong wolf feel on ICB. But it's enough where I'm fine with pushing him up to tie w stigmata.

Iron clad burrito.

This does not vibe with me; vote for the guy you think is wolfy, especially after voting for him for the near kill the previous day!


Alright, here's my answer:
Day 1: First, there were three players tied, including a wolf. Not two as your post states.
As I explained in my post, I wanted ties. Day 1 had MEM/Stigmata/Nitestorm all tied at 4. I believed pushing Ozy to 4 (for the 4th tie) would destroy all of that... Soon to be Sheriff Nitestorm would absolutely break the tie by killing Ozy. So I threw off my vote onto the next highest player (Admetus) to see how it played out. All this was in my post.

Turns out I made the right lucky play, and saved the seer. (**IF Ozy is actually the seer**). Can you imagine if I had pushed the Seer up into the tie, and he was lynched? I'd be dead by now.

Day 2: Another tie, stigmata / dferrantino / san. I knew that if I again arrived to the thread towards the end and threw off my vote to save the ties, I would get accused of sheeping and throwing safe votes. So with one hour left I purposely pushed stigmata up out of the tie with plenty of time for other people to react.

And who saved wolf-Stigmata? Ozymandias.

Day 3: This time stigmata was looking like a bandwagon... Many people were calling for his head, he narrowly avoided day 2 lynch, and he was up by 2 votes over Aldax and ICB. I suspect the wolves knew he was a lost cause. My piling on to the stigmata bandwagon wouldn't do much, except give more room to hide to the wolves. But by pushing up ICB I could give an opportunity for more vote maneuvers. And when I did that, Omega joined me to tie.

You could look at it as two wolves (Rictus/Omega) coordinating to save stigmata. Or it could be one wolf (Omega) seeing a last minute opportunity to save a doomed wolf. Or it could be two humans who wanted to see what would happen with ICB. Either way, it was a better move than if I just bandwagon'd onto Stigmata with everyone else. Because ignoring the human/wolf identity of me and Omega, I think that your snipe for stigmata was a pretty humanish move, as was Ozymandias's snipe for stigmata.

The more sinister alternative is that wolf-ryvvn (and/or wolf-Ozymandias) wanted to save wolf-ICB since wolf-stigmata was a lost cause, and sniping stigmata would give human cred to both the sniper and ICB. Not saying I believe it, but it's certainly possible.
--------

And now you're voting for me for a wolf? Might want to rethink that. Look at Day 2 again.

I guess you think that on day 2 a wolf (Rictus) pushed another wolf (stigmata) up out of a three way tie in order to ... what? Force another wolf (ICB) to save stigmata? Get human cred to try a lone wolf win? To save another wolf (must be San) while NOT sacrificing a human (dferrantino)?

Stigmata being revealed as a wolf gives me strong human cred, in my book. But I'll let others decide if they want to color me blue or not in their own charts.

I suggest you look elsewhere for a wolf.
Charming, to the last.
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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby sphenodont » 07 Feb 2014, 05:37:38

Ryvvn wrote:
San wrote:Did the wolves not maul? Can they even do that?

Spheno, I'd also like to know the answer to this.




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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby necklessone » 07 Feb 2014, 05:42:31

Which is ridiculous, 'cause witches they were persecuted, Wicca, Good! And love the Earth! And woman power! And I'll be over here....

Sorry, that's been in my head all morning.

Voting early because I feel like crap and don't want to risk getting home and falling asleep without voting.

Stigmata being a wolf means ICB's day 1 snipe is even more suspicious. His subsequent votes read in that light come across as part self-preservation and part trying to build reputation by logging early votes against a wolf who was likely to die early.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Mister E. Meat » 07 Feb 2014, 06:19:46

Perhaps it was a duck?

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 07 Feb 2014, 06:34:46

Only if it's made of wood.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Augenvonsauron » 07 Feb 2014, 07:49:07

Augie was a bit perplexed this morning. Grandma was up wandering the halls all night, and the screeching of her walker on the wood floors gave him little rest and had him feeling jumpy. He acknowledged his analytical skills were not to the caliber of many others in town. He was slow, but that's why the family selected him to watch over grandma. He felt inclined to vote for San. The vote on somebody that was fairly quiet with multiple penalty votes already on them seemed odd. Additionally, it was San. Two out of three times it seemed San was a wolf. And while Augie was slow, he had a maxim, when in doubt, vote for San. Most of the time it worked...

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 07 Feb 2014, 09:32:09

I'm leaning away from San - I just can't see a wolf missing the discussion from yesterday where I asked and answered the same question about cupid-as-villager, and not having someone correcting all the misinformation in his post in the wolf board.

Omega continues to twitch my gut a bit.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby sphenodont » 07 Feb 2014, 09:48:33

Just FYI, I might not be around at EOD. The day will still end at 9, though.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 09:55:32

Ryvvn wrote:I suppose I should explain why I'm currently on Rictus:

  • D1. I think he might be a wolf hiding on the soon-to-be mauled Admetus, safe place for a wolf to hide if the top two lynch candidates are humans.

I agree that one of the three unconfirmed players who voted for Admetus on Day 1 is a Wolf ...

DAY 1 LYNCH
Admetus - 3 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito, Rictus, Aldax

... but I would rank their relative Wolfiness as (1) ICB / (2) Aldax / (3) Rictus, because:

(a) stigmata was in a four-way tie for the lynch lead at 2 votes when ICB put the 2nd vote on Admetus, which is pretty helpful to stigmata;

(b) stigmata was in a three-way tie for the lynch lead at 4 votes when Rictus put the 3rd vote on Admetus-- that's not nearly as helpful as say putting a fifth vote on MEM or Nitestorm, or a fourth vote on me;

(c) stigmata was in a three-way tie for the lynch lead at 4 votes when Aldax put the 4th vote on Admetus, which is pretty helpful to stigmata.

So of the three, Rictus' vote had the least impact.

And of course ICB's vote switch to MEM was even more helpful ...

Ryvvn wrote:
  • D2. Perhaps looking to buy human cred should Stigmata have been lynched, likely to be at least one wolf on that wagon, currently leaning on it being him.

  • ICB was also on that bandwagon.

    Also, when Rictus voted for stigmata with an hour left on Day 2, he broke a 5-5-5 tie, so that was a pretty significant vote.

    Ryvvn wrote:
  • D3. Pushed up ICB, instead of voting Stigmata again, though potentially swayed by arguments

  • This does not vibe with me; vote for the guy you think is wolfy, especially after voting for him for the near kill the previous day!

    To be fair, didn't you switch off stigmata on Day 2 after putting him in danger on Day 1 by calling out his odd vote about creating a "6-way draw" when he was doing nothing of the sort? (Which, btw, I strongly suspected was due to him misreading a lynch or maul tally in the Wolf thread.)

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 10:01:47

    Time for another vote! Or actually more of a survey, really.

    Given that I have yet to Seer a Wolf, I'd really like to find one with my last vision.

    With that in mind, who does everyone think I should Seer tonight?

    (Be sure to factor in that players likely to get lynched anyway may not be optimal Seer targets if Wolf-hunting.)

    Please underline your suggestions-- thanks!

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 10:25:25

    Looking back to Day 1, I also think there's at least one Wolf lurking in the outlier votes:

    DAY 1 LYNCH
    Blindsniper83 - 1 - San
    RaveBomb - 1 - Meta4
    Hellheart - 1 - twdog

    Meta4 has a couple of kind of goofy votes (e.g., late pointless Day 1 "No Sheriff" vote, a Day 2 vote on me after I became Sheriff), but I have no idea if he plays like that as a Wolf, so I'll leave that assessment to those who know him better.

    What I found more interesting is that San and twdog have VERY similar voting histories:

    (a) No Day 0 Sheriff vote;
    (b) No Day 1 Sheriff vote for San and outlier vote (Rave) for twdog;
    (c) Day 1 Lynch outlier votes;
    (d) Day 2 Lynch votes for dferrantino that helped stigmata;
    (e) Only two players on Day 3 to vote with stigmata for Aldax;

    Since it seems very unlikely that three Wolves would cast the only votes for Aldax, I think either San OR twdog is a Wolf.

    So I'm going to switch my vote to twdog for now.
    Last edited by Ozymandias on 07 Feb 2014, 18:50:32, edited 1 time in total.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 10:29:53

    Lynch Tally
    San - 2 - FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron
    twdog - 2 - Ozymandias x 2
    Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - necklessone
    Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
    Ozymandias - 1 - San
    Rictus - 1 - Ryvvn
    Still to Vote - 13

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 07 Feb 2014, 10:39:24

    necklessone wrote:Stigmata being a wolf means ICB's day 1 snipe is even more suspicious. His subsequent votes read in that light come across as part self-preservation and part trying to build reputation by logging early votes against a wolf who was likely to die early.


    Lol yeah, only wolves cast defensive votes. Silly me.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 07 Feb 2014, 10:42:15

    Ozymandias wrote:Time for another vote! Or actually more of a survey, really.

    Given that I have yet to Seer a Wolf, I'd really like to find one with my last vision.

    With that in mind, who does everyone think I should Seer tonight?

    (Be sure to factor in that players likely to get lynched anyway may not be optimal Seer targets if Wolf-hunting.)

    Please underline your suggestions-- thanks!


    Given your track record in this game, my best suggestion is to randomize the player list and submit a long list of conditionals. Remove the human you'll kill tonight first, obviously. ;)

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby sphenodont » 07 Feb 2014, 11:12:59

    Ryvvn wrote:...looking over the cards again, I noticed that the Witch card is the only special role which does not explicitly state that it would belong to a villager; I'm not reading anything into that, yet, just simply pointing it out.


    Don't read too much into that. I just didn't copy/paste that last line from all the other human roles into that description when posting to the rules thread.

    This really is a pretty straightforward game, and now that you've all killed the lovers, there are no chances of in-game double agency at play.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Mister E. Meat » 07 Feb 2014, 11:23:55

    Ozymandias wrote:Since it seems very unlikely that three Wolves would cast the only votes for Aldax, I think either San OR twdog is a Wolf.

    So I'm going to switch my vote to twdog for now.

    See, I never know if you're serious with these things or not. If you are, I get more of a feel from San personally but not enough to vote for him, mostly because he literally always feels like a wolf to me. I have no idea if it's his post style or what but I never get a human feel from him.

    Twdog I'm not getting a wolf feel from at all though so between the two, that's where I'd go.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 11:59:31

    Query: Would anyone care to chip in on the possible wolf distributions in yesterday's voting?

    Statement: I plan to look at a number of things before I make any observations. That is one of the last things I will be looking into.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 12:31:22

    Hellheart wrote:Query: Would anyone care to chip in on the possible wolf distributions in yesterday's voting?

    DAY 3 LYNCH
    stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega, Ryvvn
    Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias, Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
    Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
    Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
    DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
    San - 1 - Aldax
    Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
    twdog - 0 - Ryvvn

    That depends on whether or not ICB is a Wolf ...

    [+] IF ICB IS A WOLF
    stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega, Ryvvn
    Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias, Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
    Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
    Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
    DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
    San - 1 - Aldax
    Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
    twdog - 0 - Ryvvn

    ... then I think there were probably:

    (a) 1 or 2 Wolves (besides ICB) on stigmata
    (b) 0 or 1 Wolf on ICB
    (c) 1 Wolf (besides stigmata) on Aldax
    (d) 1 or 2 outlier votes (i.e., DOM/Meta4/Aldax/Visigoth) because they didn't have a good choice.

    [+] IF ICB IS NOT A WOLF
    stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega, Ryvvn
    Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias, Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
    Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
    Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
    DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
    San - 1 - Aldax
    Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
    twdog - 0 - Ryvvn

    ... then I think there were probably:

    (a) 1 or 2 Wolves on stigmata
    (b) 1 or 2 Wolves on ICB
    (c) 0 or 1 Wolf (besides stigmata) on Aldax
    (d) 1 or 2 outlier votes (i.e., DOM/Meta4/Aldax/Visigoth)

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 12:36:09

    This gets its own post because it's rather detailed. This does not mean that ICB is my strongest wolf read or that I'm going to vote for him, but I want it out there in time for others to comment and for him to respond.

    ---

    Stigmata's "defensive" Aldax vote yesterday still really bothers me. If you don't recall, this was Stigmata's response when I was freaking out about that vote (bold is mine for emphasis):

    stigmata wrote:
    Hellheart wrote:Wait a minute. Why did Stigmata cast his defensive vote for Aldax instead of ICB? They were both at 3 votes at the time.

    Anybody who argues that Aldax is a more likely wolf than ICB is full of shit.

    Didn't notice the new vote against insane clown burrito. I'm obviously keeping an eye on it, but it's a busy day so I'm having a hard time working out the best defensive vote.

    Even at this moment, though, it'd be totally irrational for me to change my vote.

    That bolded part is total bullshit. Here is the top of the vote total that Ozymandias posted right before Stigmata made his vote. When I say "right before," I mean literally the post above Stigmata's post. Click the link below if you don't believe me.

    Subject: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds
    Ozymandias wrote:Lynch Vote Tally:
    Aldax - 3 - San, Penalty (x2)
    Iron Clad Burrito - 3 - Ozymandias (x2), Clearasday
    stigmata - 2 - Furin, Zark

    He also cast this self-defense vote awfully early to push Aldax over ICB, and he was around later in the day. This is either a wolf smear campaign directed at human-ICB because they decided that Stigmata was already dead, or a last-ditch effort to push a human above two wolf wagons by a wolf that was probably going to die anyway.

    This vote moved me away from my neutral read on ICB and it's difficult to move back to neutral when I see a vote that baffling.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby FurinMirado » 07 Feb 2014, 13:18:33

    Hellheart wrote:Subject: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds
    Ozymandias wrote:Lynch Vote Tally:
    Aldax - 3 - San, Penalty (x2)
    Iron Clad Burrito - 3 - Ozymandias (x2), Clearasday
    stigmata - 2 - Furin, Zark

    He also cast this self-defense vote awfully early to push Aldax over ICB, and he was around later in the day. This is either a wolf smear campaign directed at human-ICB because they decided that Stigmata was already dead, or a last-ditch effort to push a human above two wolf wagons by a wolf that was probably going to die anyway.

    This vote moved me away from my neutral read on ICB and it's difficult to move back to neutral when I see a vote that baffling.

    I'm just playing devil's advocate here, but from stigmata's perspective a vote on Aldax may have been preferable.

    Both bandwagons had 3 votes. However, two of the votes on Aldax were immovable. In a worst case scenario San could have moved his vote to stigmata, still putting Aldax at 3 with the 2 penalities plus stigmata:

    Aldax - 3 - Penalty (x2), stigmata
    Iron Clad Burrito - 3 - Ozymandias (x2), Clearasday
    stigmata - 3 - Furin, Zark, San

    In the worst case scenario where stigmata votes for ICB, one or both players could have moved, leaving stigmata alone and forced to move his vote again for survival.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ryvvn » 07 Feb 2014, 13:37:09

    Heading out skiing for the evening, will try to check back in before EoD.

    (This is mostly for HH who sometimes is curious to my absences)

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby 7-zark-7 » 07 Feb 2014, 13:37:21

    This continues my thoughts on confirmed dead vs very very likely human due to role reveals & in thread logic. For more on this theory, please see
    Subject: Day 03 - Love Bites, Love Bleeds

    Keeping in mind that if you respect a man’s car, a man respects you, let's consult the facts, shall we?

    Subject: Day 01 - And a Great Place to Hang Your Guilty, Too!
    [+] Day 0 Sheriff Vote
    sphenodont wrote:Sheriff Vote - Voting Totals Result: No Sheriff
    No Sheriff - 9 - Admetus, FurinMirado, necklessone, Ozymandias, Rictus (retracted), Smirker, Hellheart, Stigmata, 7-zark-7, Simple_simon
    Nitestorm - 3 - Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
    dferrantino - 3 - dferrantino, Rictus, Ryvvn
    simple_simon - 2 - Visigoth, rekard
    rekard - 1 - Clearasday, Ozymandias (retracted)
    Ravebomb - 1 - Blindsniper83
    Admetus - 0 - Ozymandias (retracted)


    Subject: Day 02 - He is the Terror Who Storms In The Night?
    [+] Day 1 Sheriff Vote
    sphenodont wrote:
    Sheriff Voting Totals
    Nitestorm - 9 - Nitestorm, 7-zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Augenvonsauron, Smirker, RaveBomb, stigmata, dferrantino, Rictus
    Clearasday - 8 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, Ozymandias (retracted), necklessone, rekard, Ozymandias, FurinMirado, Admetus, Aldax
    FurinMirado - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Clearasday, Mister E. Meat, Ozymandias (retracted)
    Ozymandias - 2 - Visigoth, Simple_Simon
    Admetus - 2 - Hellheart, Ozymandias (retracted), Ryvvn, Admetus (retracted)
    Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83
    RaveBomb - 1 - twdog
    No Sheriff - 1 - Mister E. Meat (retracted), Ozymandias (retracted), Meta4
    7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)
    Visigoth - 0 - rekard (retracted)
    Smirker - 0 - Smirker (retracted)



    Subject: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Looking at the Day 3 Lynch vote, sphenodont wrote:stigmata - wolf - lynched

    [+] Voting History
    San votes for Aldax
    FurinMirado votes for stigmata
    7-zark-7 votes for stigmata
    Ozymandias votes for Iron Clad Burrito (retracted)
    DastardlyOldMan votes for Ryvvn
    Meta4 votes for DastardlyOldMan
    Aldax votes for San
    Visigoth votes for Hellheart
    Clearasday votes for Iron Clad Burrito
    stigmata votes for Aldax
    Hellheart votes for stigmata
    Augenvonsauron votes for stigmata
    necklessone votes for Iron Clad Burrito
    Iron Clad Burrito votes for stigmata
    twdog votes for Aldax
    Mister E. Meat votes for stigmata
    Ryvvn votes for twdog (retracted)
    BlindSniper83 votes for Iron Clad Burrito
    Smirker votes for stigmata
    Omega votes for stigmata (retracted)
    Rictus votes for Iron Clad Burrito
    Omega votes for Iron Clad Burrito
    Ryvvn votes for stigmata



    [+] Voting Totals
    Voting Totals
    stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega (retracted), Ryvvn
    Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias x2 (retracted), Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
    Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
    Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
    DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
    San - 1 - Aldax
    Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
    twdog - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)


    I believe (as some others have expressed) that there was more than one Wolf on the vote to Elect Nightstorm. I also believe there was at least one Wolf on Stigmata in the name of human credibility. So I've spent today tuning my engine, and looking for patterns.

    Given his west coast lifestyle, it's rare for Augenvonsauron to comment early except for right after a thread opens. Given his well known propensity for not changing his vote, this jumped out at me:
    [+] California Scheming
    Augenvonsauron wrote:Augie was a bit perplexed this morning. Grandma was up wandering the halls all night, and the screeching of her walker on the wood floors gave him little rest and had him feeling jumpy. He acknowledged his analytical skills were not to the caliber of many others in town. He was slow, but that's why the family selected him to watch over grandma. He felt inclined to vote for San. The vote on somebody that was fairly quiet with multiple penalty votes already on them seemed odd. Additionally, it was San. Two out of three times it seemed San was a wolf. And while Augie was slow, he had a maxim, when in doubt, vote for San. Most of the time it worked...


    The only record I can find of him posting this early was when he was playing a team game. It would certainly be interesting if his early vote was prearranged during the visit to Grandma's house. What big eyes Grandma had, what big teeth... and what good advice for where to place her early vote?

    More in a bit,

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 13:45:20

    If MEM is a wolf, then there were 2 wolves in that 4-way tie on Day 1. In that scenario, the wolves are going to break that tie by voting a human. That is not what happened - ICB broke the tie by pushing MEM ahead. MEM wasn't even around to cast a defensive vote.

    I think MEM is the closest to human we're going to get without a Seer peek.

    ---

    Ryvvn also looks very human on Day 1 by swapping his singleton vote on Dferrantino to push wolf-Stigmata to 3 votes when human-Nitestorm and MEM already had 4 votes. Ozymandias immediately followed that with the obvious vote to tie wolf-Stigmata at 4 votes. You know that 4th vote is coming when you cast the 3rd vote, so Ryvvn's vote puts wolf-Stigmata in danger there.

    ---

    I thought Rictus defended himself well, and I think his dialing things back from last game is natural since that was a major reason he got mislynched. But if he's a wolf he's never voting for Ozy because that would have put two consecutive wolf votes, on Day 1, on Ozymandias. You know Ozymandias, he's the guy who always thinks that wolves vote for him on Day 1.

    I think there are wolfier players right now, but I'm not going to say that he's human.

    ---

    I think twdog is a more likely wolf than San, and I'd be surprised if 3 consecutive wolves voted for Aldax on Day 3. His 5th vote for Aldax actually broke the 3-way tie between Aldax and two wolfy players. That vote doesn't make twdog look any better after a very late throwaway Day 1 vote during the 4-way tie and a late vote to tie human-Dferrantino with wolf-Stigmata on Day 2.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 13:50:41

    Ryvvn wrote:Heading out skiing for the evening, will try to check back in before EoD.

    (This is mostly for HH who sometimes is curious to my absences)

    Thanks for the heads-up. I do get worried when you haven't posted much before EOD. I have PTSD after you killed me with one of those snipe votes.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 13:59:03

    FurinMirado wrote:I'm just playing devil's advocate here, but from stigmata's perspective a vote on Aldax may have been preferable.

    Both bandwagons had 3 votes. However, two of the votes on Aldax were immovable. In a worst case scenario San could have moved his vote to stigmata, still putting Aldax at 3 with the 2 penalities plus stigmata:

    Aldax - 3 - Penalty (x2), stigmata
    Iron Clad Burrito - 3 - Ozymandias (x2), Clearasday
    stigmata - 3 - Furin, Zark, San

    In the worst case scenario where stigmata votes for ICB, one or both players could have moved, leaving stigmata alone and forced to move his vote again for survival.

    There's two problems with your theory:

    1) There's no personal benefit for him to cast that early vote if he's going to be around at EOD. He's not going to be a runaway wagon and people forget about defensive votes when they vote to tie the lead wagons.

    2) Stigmata's explanation doesn't say that. Stigmata's explanation doesn't even reference Necklessone's reasonable excuse (Ozy usually changes his vote). In my experience, bullshit reasoning from a wolf is used to replace sound pro-wolf reasoning for the action in question.

    Both points combined make it overwhelmingly likely that Stigmata cast the vote on Aldax at that particular time for a sound pro-wolf reason. The only thing left is to determine what that reason would most likely be.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 14:09:39

    Hellheart wrote:Both points combined make it overwhelmingly likely that Stigmata cast the vote on Aldax at that particular time for a sound pro-wolf reason. The only thing left is to determine what that reason would most likely be.

    Agreed: he was either trying to avoid voting for a fellow Wolf, or trying to make us think that's what he was doing.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Meta4 » 07 Feb 2014, 14:16:55

    Rictus? Hell, he damn near killed us!
    "...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 14:18:00

    Let me continue taking my tour of Day 1 bandwagons ...

    DAY 1 LYNCH
    Clearasday - 2 - 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron

    I agree with Zark that Augie is a leading Wolf suspect.

    Here are his other votes:

    (a) No Day 0 Sheriff votes.
    (b) Put fourth Day 1 Sheriff vote on Nitestorm, giving him a two vote lead over three other 2-vote candidates.
    (c) Put second Day 2 Lynch vote on dferrantino to tie him with stigmata.
    (d) Put third Day 3 vote on stigmata.

    Going back to Day 1, given that stigmata already had 2 votes, I don't think Wolf-Augie would have voted for a fellow Wolf.

    So if Augie's a Wolf, then I'm pretty sure CAD is not, and vice-versa.

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 14:21:40

    Lynch Tally
    Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
    San - 2 - FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron
    twdog - 2 - Ozymandias x 2
    Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
    Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - necklessone
    Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
    Ozymandias - 1 - San
    Still to Vote - 11

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 14:24:46

    So no one has any thoughts on who I should Wolf-hunt with my Seer vision tonight?

    If you're human, I don't see the downside of speaking up about your suspicions.

    After all, there will be three or (depending on tonight's result) four Confirmed Humans known by tomorrow, so it will be a while before an unconfirmed Human gets mauled ...

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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Rictus » 07 Feb 2014, 14:37:48

    I looked earlier at some of the single votes but didn't see one that would give us some analysis. Visigoth, for example has been throwing a single vote but I don't know I'd seer him as my last night.
    Charming, to the last.
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    Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

    Postby Blindsniper83 » 07 Feb 2014, 14:44:23

    Ozymandias wrote:So no one has any thoughts on who I should Wolf-hunt with my Seer vision tonight?

    If you're human, I don't see the downside of speaking up about your suspicions.

    After all, there will be three or (depending on tonight's result) four Confirmed Humans known by tomorrow, so it will be a while before an unconfirmed Human gets mauled ...


    Meta4

    also a vote
    Last edited by Blindsniper83 on 07 Feb 2014, 14:45:12, edited 1 time in total.
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