Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby necklessone » 07 Feb 2014, 14:44:44

Ozymandias wrote:So no one has any thoughts on who I should Wolf-hunt with my Seer vision tonight?


Maybe I missed something. If the witch kept you alive through a maul last night, how do you expect to be alive to make use of your seer vision tomorrow?

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 14:52:08

necklessone wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:So no one has any thoughts on who I should Wolf-hunt with my Seer vision tonight?


Maybe I missed something. If the witch kept you alive through a maul last night, how do you expect to be alive to make use of your seer vision tomorrow?

If I seer a human, i will name him the new Sheriff.

And I'll say who I'm seering beforehand.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby FurinMirado » 07 Feb 2014, 15:03:07

Ozymandias wrote:So no one has any thoughts on who I should Wolf-hunt with my Seer vision tonight?

If you're human, I don't see the downside of speaking up about your suspicions.

After all, there will be three or (depending on tonight's result) four Confirmed Humans known by tomorrow, so it will be a while before an unconfirmed Human gets mauled ...

San and Clearasday are my current short list. Please note that CAD is just a gut feeling at this point.

Posted via phone while on a treadmill! Take that!

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby necklessone » 07 Feb 2014, 15:09:47

Ozymandias wrote:
necklessone wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:So no one has any thoughts on who I should Wolf-hunt with my Seer vision tonight?


Maybe I missed something. If the witch kept you alive through a maul last night, how do you expect to be alive to make use of your seer vision tomorrow?

If I seer a human, i will name him the new Sheriff.

And I'll say who I'm seering beforehand.

Ah, makes sense. I think DOM could be a profitable seer target.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby FurinMirado » 07 Feb 2014, 15:19:32

Hellheart wrote:
FurinMirado wrote:I'm just playing devil's advocate here, but from stigmata's perspective a vote on Aldax may have been preferable.

Both bandwagons had 3 votes. However, two of the votes on Aldax were immovable. In a worst case scenario San could have moved his vote to stigmata, still putting Aldax at 3 with the 2 penalities plus stigmata:

Aldax - 3 - Penalty (x2), stigmata
Iron Clad Burrito - 3 - Ozymandias (x2), Clearasday
stigmata - 3 - Furin, Zark, San

In the worst case scenario where stigmata votes for ICB, one or both players could have moved, leaving stigmata alone and forced to move his vote again for survival.

There's two problems with your theory:

1) There's no personal benefit for him to cast that early vote if he's going to be around at EOD. He's not going to be a runaway wagon and people forget about defensive votes when they vote to tie the lead wagons.

2) Stigmata's explanation doesn't say that. Stigmata's explanation doesn't even reference Necklessone's reasonable excuse (Ozy usually changes his vote). In my experience, bullshit reasoning from a wolf is used to replace sound pro-wolf reasoning for the action in question.

Both points combined make it overwhelmingly likely that Stigmata cast the vote on Aldax at that particular time for a sound pro-wolf reason. The only thing left is to determine what that reason would most likely be.


If he was telling the truth about being busy then he's not going to be able to post at the optimal time and he's not going to have enough time to post a detailed explanation for his vote. RL is a harsh mistress and will often keep you from playing at your best.

I'm not saying you're wrong about ICB but just consider that there is another explanation here.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Smirker » 07 Feb 2014, 15:25:28

Actually, I'm also game for putting down Meta4.

I will review the discussions in a bit and alter my vote if needed.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Visigoth » 07 Feb 2014, 15:33:23

Going with San. One the opportunistic vote on Aldax with the penalty votes doesn't sit well with me. And of course the vote on Ozymandias today. Granted I'm still not 100% sold on Ozymandias actually being the Seer even though no one has come forward to counterclaim. Still since no one has come forward there is no reason to not, mostly, trust that he's telling the truth so why vote on him. It's not like it will get any traction since if he is telling the truth no one will want to lynch him since it will block his vision. Not to mention that he's likely already a dead man walking and will get mauled tonight.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 15:35:04

Lynch Tally
San - 3 - FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
Meta4 - 2 - Blindsniper83, Smirker
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
twdog - 2 - Ozymandias x 2
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - necklessone
Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
Ozymandias - 1 - San
Still to Vote - 8 - Aldax, CAD, Hellheart, ICB, MEM, Omega, Rictus, twdog

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Rictus » 07 Feb 2014, 15:39:47

Meta4 to tie.
Charming, to the last.
.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 07 Feb 2014, 15:42:49

IRL's in the way tonight. If I don't get lynched at the behest of the Great and Powerful Oz tonight (or mauled), I'll do some searching this weekend to see what I can find.

This is a throwaway vote on Omega in revenge of last night's bananigans.

Have a good night and some good beer, gents.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Smirker » 07 Feb 2014, 15:53:31

i'm comfy with the current two- way. I also find it interesting that apart from the hint in the title; that I've not observed a confirmation of witch activity. However, if the witch DID go and the subject knows who it was - I'd probably hold off on the poison and save it for when when you have a super-strongly suspected wolf. Or, when a wolf is confirmed via seer. A missed vigi doesn't spell doom for us; but with Rave getting a WOG, we are down a tad atm anyway. If we hadn't gotten a wolf last night I'd be even more careful of a mis-shot.

Typically analysis helps more than a vigi; but it's a great addition. :)

[e]: Fuck me running; corrected name mistake about the WoG

[[ [e]: And now to whip up some dinner.. or at least help before I lose spousal faction...]]

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 16:02:35

necklessone wrote:Though maybe tomorrow is the day to talk about this, if Ozy is saved by the witch tonight the witch should also consider poisoning tomorrow night. This would allow full use of the powers while still allowing Ozy to snipe reveal your name to provide a confirmed human.

So after doing some number crunching, I think I agree with necklessone that the Witch should fire tonight while she has a guaranteed free shot (since the Wolves HAVE to maul me tonight).

Right now, the score is probably 15 Humans to 5 Wolves. That means we can only afford FOUR missed lynches (including today) before the Wolves reach parity.

If the Witch fires and kills a Human, making the score 14 Humans to 5 Wolves, that still gives us FOUR missed lynches.

But if she fires and kills a Wolf, making the score 15 Humans to 4 Wolves, then that means we can miss FIVE lynches and still win.

(Note that in both cases, once the Witch fires, I don't think the Hunter should fire if lynched, because even a successful shot won't reduce the number of missed lynches allowed, so there's a lot of risk for only marginal reward.)

Thoughts?

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 16:10:55

Lynch Tally
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
twdog - 2 - Ozymandias x 2
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - necklessone
Ozymandias - 1 - San
Still to Vote - 6 - Aldax, CAD, Hellheart, MEM, Omega, twdog

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 16:39:56

necklessone wrote:Ah, makes sense. I think DOM could be a profitable seer target.

This is an excellent suggestion by Necklessone. I have absolutely no read on DOM at the moment.

I don't think Meta4 is a bad wagon, but keep in mind that a wolf has been in danger all 3 days and he has 3 throwaway votes. San is a very dirty wagon right now, although my suspicions of Furin have abated somewhat.

Out of the top 5 wagons, there is one that is clearly more likely to be a wolf than the others: twdog. Omega comes in 2nd but it's by a very wide margin.



EDIT: Witch could easily hold off right now unless he's pretty sure he has a wolf target. There are a lot of wolfy players, but some players are more suspicious than others.

That said, while Visigoth is a horrible Seer target, he may be an excellent Witch target.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Omega » 07 Feb 2014, 16:48:28

I'm gonna hold on to my vote until the voting shapes up a bit more, I may need it for self defense.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 17:23:21

Next stop on the Day 1 Bandwagon Lynch Tour: Nitestorm!

DAY 1 LYNCH
Nitestorm - 5 - Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, RaveBomb, Ozymandias

So this one's a bit tougher to gauge, because if my "Sheriff Nitestorm Gambit" theory is correct, then there may not even be a Wolf on this bandwagon. If there is, his role would be that of a "counter-Wolf," who might try to be overly friendly to me or antagonistic to Nitestorm so that he could lead the charge to get Sheriff Nitestorm lynched after he took me out on Day 2.

(a) Visigoth put the first vote on Nitestorm when two other players (MEM, stigmata) already had 2 votes, so this was a fairly harmless vote for Nitestorm. Visigoth also voted me for Sheriff at the same time, which is a bit odd since he's usually much more wary of me early on.

Visigoth's next two lynch votes (Day 2 for Furin, Day 3 for Hellheart) conveniently stayed well away from the main bandwagons.

(b) Soon after Visigoth voted, FurinMirado put the 2nd vote on Nitestorm, tying him up with MEM, Ozy, and stigmata. That vote is the one that first put Nitestorm in real lynch danger, so it's hard for to reconcile this vote-- and his Day 0 "No Sheriff" and Day 1 Sheriff votes for anyone but Nitestorm-- with my hypothesized "Sheriff Nitestorm Gambit."

Then again, Furin was playing ridiculously well when I stopped playing a few months ago so maybe Wolf-Furin could have the foresight to pull this off ...

(c) CAD put the third vote on Nitestorm to break a seven-way two-vote tie (Admetus, CAD, MEM, Nite, Ozy, Simon, stigmata). Would a Wolf really risk putting such a significant lynch vote on a Human? Even if the Wolves weren't engaged in a "Sheriff Nitestorm" ploy, CAD had to know that I was very likely to switch onto Nitestorm later.

We all know CAD has big brass ones, especially as a Wolf, but are they that big?

But despite the Human-ness of this vote, I still suspect CAD for other reasons: (1) Only received two Day 1 Lynch votes; (2) Did not himself for Sheriff on Day 1 despite spending two days railing against Nitestorm; (3) Conspicuous Day 2 throwaway vote for Ryvvn when there was a 5-5-5 tie between dferr, San, and stigmata.

Also, this may sound odd, but if ICB's a Wolf, then CAD's Day 3 vote for him is actually more suspicious to me, because that's exactly the kind of sacrifice vote I would expect Wolf-CAD to make.

Anyway, right now if I had to rank the Wolfiness (from most to least) of the Nitestorm bandwagon, it would be:

(1) Visigoth / (2) Clearasday / (3) FurinMirado

Though if Augie isn't a Wolf (see earlier post), then CAD might be (1B) to Visigoth's (1A)

I highly doubt there's more than 1 Wolf in this bandwagon-- as I said, there may not be any.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:02:08

Lynch Tally
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
twdog - 3 - Ozymandias x 2, Hellheart
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - necklessone
Ozymandias - 1 - San
Still to Vote - 5 - Aldax, CAD, MEM, Omega, twdog

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:04:20

Since I think it's a good idea for the Witch to vig someone tonight, I'm going to go ahead and reveal my Night 3 Seer target:

I seered Smirker as a Human.

I lied about getting the targets confused, just in case it might throw off the Wolves.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:07:36

btw, I'm not going to reveal the Witch.

If she wants to come forward, she can snipe reveal if she vigs tonight or role claim if she gets in lynch trouble later in the game.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:14:51

So if the Witch does Vig someone tonight, then we need to coordinate targets.

Therefore, I am NOT going to seer anyone who currently has a lynch vote:

Meta4
San
twdog
Omega
Rictus
Augenvonsauron
Iron Clad Burrito

So if you want to Vig any of these players, have at 'em.

Just make sure to put in TWO conditionals (A > B > C), since if we lynch the Hunter, two players might die in the lynch.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 18:18:59

Ozymandias wrote:So if the Witch does Vig someone tonight, then we need to coordinate targets.

Therefore, I am NOT going to seer anyone who currently has a lynch vote:

Meta4
San
twdog
Omega
Rictus
Augenvonsauron
Iron Clad Burrito

So if you want to Vig any of these players, have at 'em.

Just make sure to put in TWO conditionals (A > B > C), since if we lynch the Hunter, two players might die in the lynch.

Also, don't Seer Visigoth. No, I am not the Witch, but all 5 of his votes - including both Sheriff votes - are in places where I would expect to see a wolf vote.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Clearasday » 07 Feb 2014, 18:32:50

Augenvonsauron because I don't feel comfortable on anyone close to actually being lynched in my drunk state.

I dispute all claims by oxy that I am a wolf and I say to him that he should muse better and more silently in his current position od authority. If he dies people might end up following his advice and losing.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:35:17

Clearasday wrote:Augenvonsauron because I don't feel comfortable on anyone close to actually being lynched in my drunk state.

I dispute all claims by oxy that I am a wolf and I say to him that he should muse better and more silently in his current position od authority. If he dies people might end up following his advice and losing.

It's not "if" dude, it's when-- that's why I'm dumping all my thoughts out before I die.

You have any thoughts on who I should Seer?

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:36:01

Lynch Tally
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
twdog - 3 - Ozymandias x 2, Hellheart
Augenvonsauron - 2 - 7-zark-7, Clearasday
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - necklessone
Ozymandias - 1 - San
Still to Vote - 4 - Aldax, MEM, Omega, twdog

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 18:41:34

I plan to do some analysis tomorrow because really there's nobody left for the wolves to maul and I'm going to be a prime target. I might live two days, might.

That said, I'll condense it as much as possible so people with lives can read through it all and understand it in one go.

Maybe. :P

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:44:30

Hellheart wrote:Ryvvn also looks very human on Day 1 by swapping his singleton vote on Dferrantino to push wolf-Stigmata to 3 votes when human-Nitestorm and MEM already had 4 votes. Ozymandias immediately followed that with the obvious vote to tie wolf-Stigmata at 4 votes. You know that 4th vote is coming when you cast the 3rd vote, so Ryvvn's vote puts wolf-Stigmata in danger there.

Agreed. Hard to see Wolf-Ryvvn switching to a Wolf in that situation:

DAY 1 LYNCH
stigmata - 3 - Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias

Now I do think Wolf-Hellheart is fully of capable of throwing out the first vote of the day for fellow Wolf stigmata-- not to mention that Hellheart seemed overly invested in stigmata's lynch (fyi, stigmata was always going to die, I was just building up bandwagons for information yesterday).

But if stigmata really has been voting recently on Day 1 for Hellheart, then the point of such a ploy would be to given them each more Human cred by voting for another-- as I would expect Wolf-Hellheart to tell stigmata. Though I suppose their might have been a miscommunication.

Anyway, most of you have more experience playing with Ryvvn and Hellhearn than I do, so I'll let you decide if either is a Wolf capable of such and advanced Day 1 play.

But I think a Wolf is significant less likely on the stigmata bandwagon than on the Nitestorm bandwagon.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:48:08

Hellheart wrote:I plan to do some analysis tomorrow because really there's nobody left for the wolves to maul and I'm going to be a prime target. I might live two days, might.

That said, I'll condense it as much as possible so people with lives can read through it all and understand it in one go.

Maybe. :P

No, there are three confirmed Humans, all of whom are going to take turns as Sheriff, so you're fine for at least three more nights.

And there may as many as three more confirmed Humans coming: the Witch, my Night 4 target, and the Hunter.

In fact, once the Witch fires her Vig, the Hunter may want to consider role-claiming immediately to avoid getting lynched and ensure a Human Sheriff for the endgame, when it will matter most.

(I'll leave it to others to figure out the math if and when the situation presents itself.)

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Hellheart » 07 Feb 2014, 18:49:55

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:I plan to do some analysis tomorrow because really there's nobody left for the wolves to maul and I'm going to be a prime target. I might live two days, might.

That said, I'll condense it as much as possible so people with lives can read through it all and understand it in one go.

Maybe. :P

No, there are three confirmed Humans, all of whom are going to take turns as Sheriff, so you're fine for at least three more nights.

And there may as many as three more confirmed Humans coming: the Witch, my Night 4 target, and the Hunter.

In fact, once the Witch fires her Vig, the Hunter may want to consider role-claiming immediately to avoid getting lynched and ensure a Human Sheriff for the endgame, when it will matter most.

(I'll leave it to others to figure out the math if and when the situation presents itself.)

Good point. Still wouldn't be surprised if I got mauled earlier than all of them do. Their first two mauls were two of the best wolf-hunters in the game. There's not that many left alive, and at least one of them is probably a wolf.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:51:56

Switching vote to ICB

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:52:47

Lynch Tally
Iron Clad Burrito - 3 - necklessone, Ozymandias x 2
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
Augenvonsauron - 2 - 7-zark-7, Clearasday
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
Ozymandias - 1 - San
twdog - 1 - Hellheart
Still to Vote - 4 - Aldax, MEM, Omega, twdog

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Rictus » 07 Feb 2014, 18:56:05

I like all 3 of the lynch candidates.
Charming, to the last.
.

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:57:04

Don't have time to detail final Day 1 bandwagon.

DAY 1 LYNCH
Mister E. Meat - 5 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito

I've already made ICB suspicions abundantly clear.

But I think there's also another Wolf in the other four, whose Wolfiness I now have ranked:

(1) DOM / (2) necklessone / (3) Omega / (4) MEM

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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Omega » 07 Feb 2014, 18:58:18

Iron Clad Burrito

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Ozymandias
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Re: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Postby Ozymandias » 07 Feb 2014, 18:59:08

I am Seering DOM > Visigoth tonight

If I seer my target as Human, I will appoint them to be the next Sheriff.

Otherwise, I will appoint Zark.


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