Visigoth wrote:Still liking San even with the possible explanation of voting on Aldax. Also possibly adding Meta4 to the list. Part of the reason for both is yesterday's vote where Iron Clad Burrito cast a "throwaway" vote on Omega before apparently leaving for the rest of the day. At that time San and Meta4 were at 3 votes each, Rictus at 2 and with Iron Clad Burrito's vote putting Omega at 2 as well. Now at the time he had only one vote, but was there was the threat there from Ozymandias and others. So why make a throwaway vote when he could have put out a pre-emptive defensive vote on one of the other leaders.
My guess, other than fitting into the narrative below? Too many wolves on those wagons, or one is a wolf. If there's no wolf on San on Day 4 I'm going to eat Ryvvn's hat.
Looking at the votes in such detail gave me probable wolf narratives for Day 3 and Day 4:
Day 3, it looks like the wolves were willing to give up on Stigmata but wanted to protect ICB, who for the 2nd consecutive day casts a vote on Stigmata for human cred. San's vote on Aldax created an opening that the wolves hoped to exploit: vote up Stigmata and Aldax and hope that the humans don't keep voting ICB to keep up. Once Aldax was clearly going nowhere, whatever wolves hadn't yet voted would go for human cred by voting for ICB once Stigmata got enough votes or Stigmata if it were before then.
Day 4, it's painfully clear to me that the wolves had one goal: distract everybody from ICB. Don't talk about ICB, talk about other players, push other players hard, distract as much as possible. Two players are voted up to 3 and both get plenty of post heat, but nobody is voted up to 4 which would make ICB safe. ICB doesn't cast a defensive vote because it'll attract attention, and the wolves seem content to keep the highest vote-getter at 3. This tells me that there is almost certainly one, if not two, wolves at 2 votes there. San's Ozy vote provided great fodder for the distraction tactic, and this tactic worked annoyingly well - hell, even I forgot that ICB was still alive when I voted for twdog.
EDIT: I mean one or two wolves at 2 votes when San gets the 3rd vote from Visigoth, not at 2 votes in the final tally. If there is a wolf at 2 votes, the chances that the first tiebreaker vote comes from a wolf are higher than you would think.
I think the wolves would push San on Day 4 because his cryptic Day 3 post and his greater degree of involvement could feel like a power role. The only two power roles left are the Witch and Hunter, and the wolves want to lynch the Hunter ASAP because the longer they wait, the more accurate the hunter is likely to be.