Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

The centerpiece of our idyllic community. Just ignore the reddish-brown stains on the pavement...
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Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby sphenodont » 09 Feb 2014, 19:07:48

There really was little contest. The new Sheriff very clearly made his determination known to one and all. twdog may not have been paying attention, but he'd definitely know what was hitting him now.

(Now if only the GM could put a bit more effort into running the game than the players playing it...)

twdog - lynched - villager

[+] Day 05 Voting History
Rictus votes for twdog
FurinMirado votes for San (retracted)
7-zark-7 votes for Augenvonsauron
FurinMirado votes for Visigoth (retracted)
Mister E. Meat votes for twdog
Ryvvn votes for necklessone
San votes for FurinMirado
Visigoth votes for San
DastardlyOldMan votes for FurinMirado (retracted)
necklessone votes for twdog
Hellheart votes for twdog
Clearasday votes for Meta4
Smirker votes for Meta4
FurinMirado votes for twdog
Augenvonsauron votes for San
Meta4 votes for DastardlyOldMan
twdog votes for Hellheart
Omega votes for San
Blindsniper83 votes for FurinMirado
DastardlyOldMan votes for twdog


Voting Totals
twdog - 9 - Penalty x 2, Rictus, Mister E. Meat, necklessone, Hellheart, FurinMirado, DastardlyOldMan x2
San - 3 - FurinMirado (retracted), Visigoth, Omega, Augenvonsauron
FurinMirado - 2 - San, DastardlyOldMan x2 (retracted), Blindsniper83
Aldax - 2 - Penalty x 2
Mister E. Meat - 2 - Penalty x 2
Meta4 - 2 - Clearasday, Smirker
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - twdog
Visigoth - 0 - FurinMirado (retracted)
DID NOT VOTE: Aldax - will receive 4 penalty votes today.
Last edited by sphenodont on 10 Feb 2014, 18:13:35, edited 3 times in total.
Reason: Updated with Smirker's vote and Aldax's penalty.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby 7-zark-7 » 09 Feb 2014, 19:10:23

No Maul?

That's. odd.

More in a bit

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby sphenodont » 09 Feb 2014, 19:11:33

Everyone went to bed a little uneasy. They hadn't succeeded in killing another of the wolves, which meant they were all ripe for the picking. And while no one really likes witches, they had to admit that having one around was useful. Unfortunately, that two trick pony was down to one trick, and it was the "burning sensation where you don't want to burn" type.

So, it was probably bad luck that Smirker realized that he was out of TP shortly after midnight, and probably even worse luck that he went knocking on the wrong door to ask after some.

"Hey, I didn't know that we got deliver in this town!" said █████████, one of the wolves.

"We do now!" answered ████.

"Why doesn't the GM use the right number of characters for our names?" asked ████████████████.

"Because if he did, someone would metagame it." The last wolf shrugged and ate Smirker's face.

Smirker - mauled - villager

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Omega » 09 Feb 2014, 19:12:54

7-zark-7 wrote:No Maul?

That's. odd.

More in a bit

7z7


That is very odd...

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 09 Feb 2014, 19:17:05

Omega wrote:
7-zark-7 wrote:No Maul?

That's. odd.

More in a bit

7z7


That is very odd...

Commentary: Silly meatbags, always in a rush. You'll never know the bliss of stalking your prey for fun.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Omega » 09 Feb 2014, 19:18:45

Hellheart wrote:
Omega wrote:
7-zark-7 wrote:No Maul?

That's. odd.

More in a bit

7z7


That is very odd...

Commentary: Silly meatbags, always in a rush. You'll never know the bliss of stalking your prey for fun.


Is that an admission, furball?

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Ryvvn » 09 Feb 2014, 19:19:58

Aldax was not WOG'd though, so was twdog lying about the PM?

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 09 Feb 2014, 19:24:26

Omega wrote:Is that an admission, furball?

Rebuttal: I wasn't the meatbag who put the 2nd vote on an off-wagon with Visigoth.

Ryvvn wrote:Aldax was not WOG'd though, so was twdog lying about the PM?

This also bothers me. Even if I thought he could possible be a wolf, he's not worth wagoning because the WOG is virtually inevitable at this point.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Ryvvn » 09 Feb 2014, 19:27:09

Time to get serious, gents :!:

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 09 Feb 2014, 19:28:47

Ryvvn wrote:Time to get serious, gents :!:

(( Extreme Close-Up! WOOOOOOOOOAHHHHH! ))

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Rictus » 09 Feb 2014, 19:29:00

[+] Day 1 Lynch Voting Totals
Nitestorm - 5 - Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, RaveBomb, Ozymandias
Mister E. Meat - 5 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito
Stigmata - 3 - Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias (retracted)
Admetus - 3 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito (retracted), Rictus, Aldax
Ozymandias - 3 - Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday - 2 - 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron
Omega - 2 - Mister E. Meat, Admetus
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83, Ozymandias (retracted)
Blindsniper83 - 1 - San
RaveBomb - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - twdog
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)

[+] Day 2 Voting Totals
stigmata - 7 - Ozymandias (retracted), Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, necklessone, Iron Clad Burrito, 7-zark-7, Rictus, dferrantino
dferrantino - 7 - San, Augenvonsauron, FurinMirado, stigmata, twdog, Ozymandias x 2
San - 3 - Simple_Simon, dferrantino, Ozymandias (retracted), Omega
Ozymandias - 1 - Smirker (retracted), Meta4
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - rekard, Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
rekard - 1 - Blindsniper83
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Smirker
No vote: Aldax, RaveBomb

[+] Day 3 Voting Totals
stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega (retracted), Ryvvn
Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias x2 (retracted), Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
San - 1 - Aldax
Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
twdog - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)

[+] Day 4 unoffical Voting totals
Iron Clad Burrito - 4 - necklessone, Ozymandias x 2, Omega
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
Augenvonsauron - 2 - 7-zark-7, Clearasday
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
Ozymandias - 1 - San
twdog - 1 - Hellheart
Still to Vote - 3 - Aldax, MEM, twdog

[+] Day 5 Voting Totals
twdog - 9 - Penalty x 2, Rictus, Mister E. Meat, necklessone, Hellheart, FurinMirado, DastardlyOldMan x2
FurinMirado - 4 - San, DastardlyOldMan x2 (retracted), Blindsniper83
Aldax - 2 - Penalty x 2
Mister E. Meat - 2 - Penalty x 2
San - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Visigoth, Omega
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Meta4 - 1 - Clearasday
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - twdog
Visigoth - 0 - FurinMirado (retracted)

No vote: Aldax, Augenvonsauron, Smirker Note: I believe Smirker voted for Meta4
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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 09 Feb 2014, 19:31:09

I really want to see what wagons develop. I might wait until the evening to chip in, since a lot of the surviving players like to vote late.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Ryvvn » 09 Feb 2014, 19:36:03

Honestly, these developments have not changed my feelings from yesterday, I'm going to sit on Neckless again for now....

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby sphenodont » 09 Feb 2014, 19:41:06

I sent a PM to all players who hadn't voted by that time, and said WOGs were bad. I did not promise WOGs.

That said, this is Aldax's third offense and second consecutive. He has 4 penalty votes against him, and if i don't hear from him today, he will be WOGged.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Meta4 » 09 Feb 2014, 19:49:46

I just wanted to take a moment to apologize for my crappy snipe votes and missed vote last week. I found out last Saturday that I had to fly out the next morning on business, so it was difficult to get onto the board and make any sense of the activities going on each day.

Anyway, I got back home today, so hopefully I'll be a bit more useful.
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Visigoth » 09 Feb 2014, 19:50:00

You're missing Smirker's vote for Meta4 in the totals. Unless there's something more nefarious going on.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 09 Feb 2014, 20:46:28

You know what looks really interesting right now?

The Day 1 Sheriff vote tally.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 09 Feb 2014, 23:45:38

Okay so I'm too excited to hold this in, but I'll just present the information I used and give my own conclusions later.

EDIT2: FurinMirado solved it before any of you got online, about the same time I translated it into a logic puzzle and solved it again to check my work. With my tallies, you end up with 2 players that are always wolves and a 3rd wolf that is a pick'em between two names.

These are the vote tallies that I've been looking at, which include the Day 0 and Day 1 Sheriff votes and the retractions on Day 4. Three unconfirmed players are blue green in my tally: MEM, Aldax, and Hellheart. I am certain that I'm human, and I'm as certain as I can be without a seer peek that MEM and Aldax are human. If you don't think any of us should be blue then use Rictus' tallies, otherwise mentally or physically recolor whomever you think isn't human.

Using whatever charts you end up with, try to pick out the remaining 4 wolves. I highly recommend that you start by looking at the Day 1 Sheriff and Day 3 votes, as those have the fewest off-wagons with black names, then start eliminating black names from contention with the Day 1 Lynch Vote. If you use my charts either 2 or 3 names will be in every wolf set that has few or no exceptions to the normal wolf voting principles (avoid consecutive wolf votes, maximum of 2 wolves per wagon, wolves won't vote other wolves into danger unless they're virtually outed already).

I pulled from these charts a set of 3 extremely likely wolves, and none of them are AVS, although AVS is one of the candidates for the 4th wolf. This set completely changes the way the voting on one day in particular is interpreted. It's rather shocking, to be perfectly honest.

[+] Day 0
Day 0 Sheriff wrote:No Sheriff - 9 - Admetus, FurinMirado, necklessone, Ozymandias, Rictus (retracted), Smirker, Hellheart, Stigmata, 7-zark-7, Simple_simon
Nitestorm - 3 - Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
dferrantino - 3 - dferrantino, Rictus, Ryvvn
simple_simon - 2 - Visigoth, rekard
rekard - 1 - Clearasday, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ravebomb- 1 - Blindsniper83
Admetus - 0 - Ozymandias (retracted)

Did Not Vote - 8 - Aldax, Augenvonsauron, Meta4, Mister E. Meat, Omega, Ravebomb, San, twdog

[+] Day 1
Day 1 wrote:Sheriff Vote:
Nitestorm- 9 - Nitestorm, 7-zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Augenvonsauron, Smirker, RaveBomb, stigmata, dferrantino, Rictus
Clearasday - 8 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, Ozymandias (retracted), necklessone, rekard, Ozymandias, FurinMirado, Admetus, Aldax
FurinMirado - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Clearasday, Mister E. Meat, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ozymandias - 2 - Visigoth, Simple_Simon
Admetus - 2 - Hellheart, Ozymandias (retracted), Ryvvn, Admetus (retracted)
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83
RaveBomb - 1 - twdog
No Sheriff - 1 - Mister E. Meat (retracted), Ozymandias (retracted), Meta4
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)
Visigoth - 0 - rekard (retracted)
Smirker - 0 - Smirker (retracted)

Did Not Vote – 1 - San

Lynch Vote:

Nitestorm - 5 - Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, RaveBomb, Ozymandias
Mister E. Meat - 5 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito
Stigmata - 3 - Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias (retracted)
Admetus - 3 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito (retracted), Rictus, Aldax
Ozymandias - 3 - Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday - 2 - 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron
Omega - 2 - Mister E. Meat, Admetus
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83, Ozymandias (retracted)
Blindsniper83 - 1 - San
RaveBomb - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - twdog
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)

[+] Day 2
Day 2 wrote:stigmata - 7 - Ozymandias (retracted), Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, necklessone, Iron Clad Burrito, 7-Zark-7, Rictus, dferrantino
dferrantino - 7 - San, Augenvonsauron, FurinMirado, stigmata, twdog, Ozymandias x 2
San - 3 - Simple_Simon, dferrantino, Ozymandias (retracted), Omega
Ozymandias - 1 - Smirker (retracted), Meta4
Iron Clad Burrito - 2 - rekard, Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
rekard - 1 - Blindsniper83
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Smirker

No vote: Aldax, RaveBomb

[+] Day 3
Day 3 wrote:stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega (retracted), Ryvvn
Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias x2 (retracted), Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
San - 1 - Aldax
Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
twdog - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)

[+] Day 4
Day 4 wrote:Iron Clad Burrito - 4 - necklessone, Ozymandias x 2, Omega
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - Ozymandias x 2 (retracted), FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
Augenvonsauron - 2 - 7-zark-7, Clearasday
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
Ozymandias - 1 - San
twdog - 1 - Ozymandias x 2 (retracted), Hellheart

Still to Vote - 4 - Aldax, Mister E. Meat, Omega, twdog

[+] Day 5
Day 5 wrote:twdog - 9 - Penalty x 2, Rictus, Mister E. Meat, necklessone, Hellheart, FurinMirado, DastardlyOldMan x2
FurinMirado - 4 - San, DastardlyOldMan x2 (retracted), Blindsniper83
Aldax - 2 - Penalty x2
Mister E. Meat - 2 - Penalty x 2
San - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Visigoth, Omega
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Meta4 - 1 - Clearasday
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - twdog
Visigoth - 0 - FurinMirado (retracted)

Still to Vote – Aldax, Augenvonsauron
Last edited by Hellheart on 10 Feb 2014, 09:25:55, edited 8 times in total.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby San » 10 Feb 2014, 02:34:23

Looking at patterns, the wolves would likely scatter their votes a little more on Day 5 compared to Day 3, reacting to analysis.

Omega - previous reasons + also bandwagoned Day 3 but not Day 5. Has voted for San twice now... both times the last vote.
FurinMirado - previous reasons + a lot of vote movement Day 5.
Clearasday - bandwagoned Day 3 but not Day 5.
Ryvvn - bandwagoned Day 3 but not Day 5. Has voted for confirmed wolves 3 out of 5 days which makes a really good wolf-hunter/ actual wolf.
Aldax - unfortunately did not vote.

There's another pattern expected today which may help to identify more wolves tomorrow.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby FurinMirado » 10 Feb 2014, 03:42:47

twdog's innocence doesn't change how I feel about Visigoth. He still seems like the most likely Wolf to me.

Other Wolf Leans:
Meta4
San
Clearasday


I still look completely awful, especially since I switched late (a Wolfy move) onto a Human (a Wolfy move). I'm not planning to be on much today, so in case anyone asks: The reason for that switch was because I was worried about a late stampede onto me. It wouldn't be the first time that has happened to someone.


I've been looking at how many days we have left. It looks like we can lynch Humans until Day 9, then we lose the game if we lynch a Human on that day. So we have a good margin for error here.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 03:47:57

Furin, do you have time to pick out some wolves in my tallies above? It shouldn't take long. You're good with voting analysis and I want the input from the more analytical players, although I honestly can't see how I'm wrong here.

For those who missed my argument for MEM before: ICB voted him on Day 1 to break the tie with 2 minutes to go. If MEM's a wolf, then ICB obviously doesn't vote him and votes for Nitestorm instead.

Aldax is easy: he's one missed vote away from WOG. If it comes down to it, if he's human he should let himself be WOG'd instead of being mislynched. More importantly, however, it makes no sense for the wolves to pick Aldax for the human cred on Day 3 if he's not even able to cast votes on a regular basis.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby FurinMirado » 10 Feb 2014, 03:58:52

I'm already starting work for the day. I might be able to look it over at lunch or later this evening, assuming my boss doesn't drop any new projects on me.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby sphenodont » 10 Feb 2014, 05:52:51

GM Note: There is a hint to the number of wolves remaining up-thread.

For clarity, I randomized the list and sent out role assignments using a predefined seed. When we had that last few sign-ups, all the villagers and the new arrivals were put back in the pool and a new wolf was selected. So don't assume that the latecomers are automatically wolves.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby sphenodont » 10 Feb 2014, 05:54:22

Visigoth wrote:You're missing Smirker's vote for Meta4 in the totals. Unless there's something more nefarious going on.


Nothing nefarious. I just missed an obvious vote in the sea of people using bold for things that aren't votes. :P

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 06:03:38

sphenodont wrote:GM Note: There is a hint to the number of wolves remaining up-thread.

For clarity, I randomized the list and sent out role assignments using a predefined seed. When we had that last few sign-ups, all the villagers and the new arrivals were put back in the pool and a new wolf was selected. So don't assume that the latecomers are automatically wolves.

For extra clarity, in that maul post "The last wolf" is not [redacted],[redacted], or [redacted], correct?

6 wolves would make sense. 5 wolves would be almost criminal with this many players.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby FurinMirado » 10 Feb 2014, 06:23:50

Hellheart wrote:
sphenodont wrote:GM Note: There is a hint to the number of wolves remaining up-thread.

For clarity, I randomized the list and sent out role assignments using a predefined seed. When we had that last few sign-ups, all the villagers and the new arrivals were put back in the pool and a new wolf was selected. So don't assume that the latecomers are automatically wolves.

For extra clarity, in that maul post "The last wolf" is not [redacted],[redacted], or [redacted], correct?

6 wolves would make sense. 5 wolves would be almost criminal with this many players.

I've been assuming 6 wolves. That makes the most sense for the number of players.


I'm running reports so I have a minute to look at your tables. On Day 0, are we assuming that a vote for No Sheriff is a sign of Humanity and a vote for another player is a sign of Wolfishness-ity?

I've been intentionally ignoring the Sheriff votes because I'm on the fence about whether the Wolves would install a Human Sheriff or try to install one of their own. I've also been assuming that a vote of No Sheriff earlier in the day is a Human trait, while those that voted after the bandwagon took off are neutral at best.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 06:27:02

Don't overthink this. Think about how wolf votes usually look. All black names are equal. Where would the red be?

There shouldn't be consecutive wolf votes, 3 wolves on a wagon, or anything else that's taboo for the wolves under normal circumstances.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby FurinMirado » 10 Feb 2014, 06:32:20

Hellheart wrote:Don't overthink this. Think about how wolf votes usually look. All black names are equal. Where would the red be?

There shouldn't be consecutive wolf votes, 3 wolves on a wagon, or anything else that's taboo for the wolves under normal circumstances.

Ah, that's what I have been doing. Which is why I think Visigoth and Clearasday look highly suspect for their place on the Nitestorm lynch bandwagon on Day 1. I'm willing to bet that someone on Nitestorm's bandwagon was a Wolf and I'm in the unique position of knowing it's not me. But since no one else can know this for sure I would understand if I ended up lynched.


Let me look at the Sheriff votes and see how that changes things.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 06:36:27

FurinMirado wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Don't overthink this. Think about how wolf votes usually look. All black names are equal. Where would the red be?

There shouldn't be consecutive wolf votes, 3 wolves on a wagon, or anything else that's taboo for the wolves under normal circumstances.

Ah, that's what I have been doing. Which is why I think Visigoth and Clearasday look highly suspect for their place on the Nitestorm lynch bandwagon on Day 1. I'm willing to bet that someone on Nitestorm's bandwagon was a Wolf and I'm in the unique position of knowing it's not me. But since no one else can know this for sure I would understand if I ended up lynched.


Let me look at the Sheriff votes and see how that changes things.

The Day 1 Sheriff votes and Day 3 leave very little room for the wolves to be. With twdog colored blue, a lot of potential wolf spots on other days are now closed off as well.

And yeah, if there are two wolves on the Nitestorm lynch wagon, the likelihood that it's Visigoth and CAD is exponentially higher than it being you and either of them.

EDIT: I should've mentioned this before - looking at the Day 1 Lynch totals makes this substantially easier because Ryvvn and Rictus violate the rules. You can outright color them green or something at that point, they can't be red in this exercise unless all of the remaining candidates are green.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby FurinMirado » 10 Feb 2014, 07:15:24

Hellheart wrote:
FurinMirado wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Don't overthink this. Think about how wolf votes usually look. All black names are equal. Where would the red be?

There shouldn't be consecutive wolf votes, 3 wolves on a wagon, or anything else that's taboo for the wolves under normal circumstances.

Ah, that's what I have been doing. Which is why I think Visigoth and Clearasday look highly suspect for their place on the Nitestorm lynch bandwagon on Day 1. I'm willing to bet that someone on Nitestorm's bandwagon was a Wolf and I'm in the unique position of knowing it's not me. But since no one else can know this for sure I would understand if I ended up lynched.


Let me look at the Sheriff votes and see how that changes things.

The Day 1 Sheriff votes and Day 3 leave very little room for the wolves to be. With twdog colored blue, a lot of potential wolf spots on other days are now closed off as well.

And yeah, if there are two wolves on the Nitestorm lynch wagon, the likelihood that it's Visigoth and CAD is exponentially higher than it being you and either of them.

EDIT: I should've mentioned this before - looking at the Day 1 Lynch totals makes this substantially easier because Ryvvn and Rictus violate the rules. You can outright color them green or something at that point, they can't be red in this exercise unless all of the remaining candidates are green.

If I consider the Sheriff vote then Visigoth, Clearasday and Meta4 still remain my top suspects. They don't violate any rules on Day 1 Sheriff vote and continue to stay spread throughout. The final Wolf may be someone that did not violate the rules on the Day 1 Sheriff vote but did so later. I fall into that category among other people.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 07:24:43

FurinMirado wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
FurinMirado wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Don't overthink this. Think about how wolf votes usually look. All black names are equal. Where would the red be?

There shouldn't be consecutive wolf votes, 3 wolves on a wagon, or anything else that's taboo for the wolves under normal circumstances.

Ah, that's what I have been doing. Which is why I think Visigoth and Clearasday look highly suspect for their place on the Nitestorm lynch bandwagon on Day 1. I'm willing to bet that someone on Nitestorm's bandwagon was a Wolf and I'm in the unique position of knowing it's not me. But since no one else can know this for sure I would understand if I ended up lynched.


Let me look at the Sheriff votes and see how that changes things.

The Day 1 Sheriff votes and Day 3 leave very little room for the wolves to be. With twdog colored blue, a lot of potential wolf spots on other days are now closed off as well.

And yeah, if there are two wolves on the Nitestorm lynch wagon, the likelihood that it's Visigoth and CAD is exponentially higher than it being you and either of them.

EDIT: I should've mentioned this before - looking at the Day 1 Lynch totals makes this substantially easier because Ryvvn and Rictus violate the rules. You can outright color them green or something at that point, they can't be red in this exercise unless all of the remaining candidates are green.

If I consider the Sheriff vote then Visigoth, Clearasday and Meta4 still remain my top suspects. They don't violate any rules on Day 1 Sheriff vote and continue to stay spread throughout. The final Wolf may be someone that did not violate the rules on the Day 1 Sheriff vote but did so later. I fall into that category among other people.

Kudos for you!

Visigoth and Omega cannot both be wolves without breaking a rule because they're adjacent to each other on Day 5, but either of them works as the 3rd wolf. Everybody else breaks a rule so we'd have to find a 4th wolf the hard way. This exercise tells us that if we want a wolf voting map that makes sense, CAD and Meta4 must ALWAYS be wolves. Every wolf set requires both of them or a shitload of excuses for wolf voting principle violations.

Now, if CAD is always a wolf, the narrative changes for the Day 1 Sheriff vote totals. He was a real wagon starting from the Necklessone vote and he got a flood of votes late that are all going to be human if he's a wolf. If he's a wolf there is at most one wolf on him and that must be an early vote when he didn't look like a realistic candidate (Omega). So in a way Ozymandias was right because there's no way in hell the wolves want CAD to be elected.

EDIT: And yeah, the sheriff votes don't change your suspects but that's because you have the right suspects. The Day 1 Sheriff votes make a lot of alternate wolf configurations either impossible or much trickier to explain away...not to mention that they're the perfect step after Day 3 since you get 4 names from them where 2 must be wolves.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Visigoth » 10 Feb 2014, 07:50:11

It's weird how one person could go from more wolf to more human to more wolf in just two posts but that's what has happened with me in regards to FurinMirado. Initially I had him a little on the wolfy side but his vote move last night made me move him towards the human side. The reason for this is that a wolf knowing that twdog was a villager it would be rather attention grabbing to move his vote to a villager that was as pretty much good as dead at that point. So for a wolf that would be a little surprising of a move. Of course there is the flipmode side of that in that a wolf might do that on purpose in order to try and evoke that feeling in the other human players. And when he pointed out that his move is wolfy it made me think that maybe that really was his intention which is why I put him a bit more on the wolfy side now.

Another person on my list is Meta4. There's the stuff I mentioned yesterday but then he votes on the confirmed Sheriff yesterday? Now I can hear you all saying, "But a wolf wouldn't be that dumb to vote on an confirmed human" which I realize has more than a little bit of truth to it. Still that's pretty much not reading anything and making a complete throwaway vote. Honestly as self vote with the explanation he stated today would have been better.

San is still on my list but maybe a bit lower. With twdog's reveal that would mean that two wolves were on Aldax on Day 3. A little crowded there, but seeing as the other main contestants that day were also wolves it might makes sense. But at the time stigmata made his vote on Aldax the only other person ahead of him in the votes was Iron Clad Burrito. So not wanting to put his vote on another wolf he took advantage of the penalty votes and went with Aldax. Once Iron Clad Burrito votes on stigmata it probably would have been good for stigmata return the favor since if San is a wolf it would have separated their votes and also might have provided Iron Clad Burrito some cover since it did look off for stigmata to not vote on him.

necklessone is also kind of on my radar, but a little fuzzier (no pun intended). His votes fall in that odd third to forth vote spot that wolf votes sometimes end up in. Of course they've also been on 3/5 wolves. Of course one of those involved two wolves in the running so not many options there. Still it does seem a little red-on-red aggressive. But we've seen a little bit of that in Iron Clad Burrito since on Day 2 his vote broke the tie towards stigmata when tied with dferrantino.

I'm also going back to an earlier vote and including Hellheart on my possible list. Obviously this is about the opposite of pretty much everyone else, but I can't help putting him on the list. He's been going after stigmata since Day 1 which I admit is a little odd, but over five days he's voted on only two people, stigmata and twdog. Doesn't leave much of a voting record to look at. His little "woe is me" post on Day 4 about probably only living a couple more days which as Ozymandias pointed out wasn't the case at all due to the number of confirmed humans. Felt like a sympathy ploy. Also not fond of him coloring himself in as blue on his charts and telling every to look, look at his charts that doesn't show his name in black. Feels more than a bit manipulative. Plus I seem to have misplaced my manual which states just where and how humans and wolves are supposed to vote. And seeing as how you've totally misjudged my votes I'm guessing that whatever manual you are using doesn't appear to be correct. Let us not forget the game where Ozymandias basically orchestrated having all, well five out of six, of the wolves vote on one person on Day 2.

I realize that I've listed 5 names when the number of wolves total 4. Not sure really right now which one might be more human than wolf right now, but they are all my top suspects. Might actually put FurinMirado and Hellheart higher up on the list since they've both been trying to get me killed.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby 7-zark-7 » 10 Feb 2014, 07:51:46

Last night's snowstorm was a dusting, but it was enough. No matter how good a driver you may be, no matter how much you invest in quality tires, Koni Shocks, and the wonder that is the Audi Quattro there's still other people on the road. No doubt Smirker was on some urgent errand (TP? Really?) when he sideswiped my car, sending me and the redhead spinning off into a ditch. We had to keep warm until morning, and she had a few suggestions:

Image

sphenodont wrote:while no one really likes witches, they had to admit that having one around was useful. Unfortunately, that two trick pony was down to one trick


I may be reading too much into the adventures of the Charmin Bear, but there is minor ambiguity that Smirker is the Witch based on this post. It doesn't specifically ~say~ Smirker was out turning tricks, or more specifically what kind of tricks...

sphenodont wrote:it was the "burning sensation where you don't want to burn" type.


:? Okay. WTMI

Hellheart wrote:Don't overthink this.


Believe me, I'm trying not to think about it at all

Hellheart wrote:or anything else that's taboo for the wolves under normal circumstances.


I believe that ship has sailed, but that one point must be raised. Order of operations puts the Witch after the Maul. I applaud your restraint, but hope you don't wait too long.

sphenodont wrote:So, it was probably bad luck that Smirker realized that he was out of TP shortly after midnight


Yeah - you don't want to end up like Smirker. You got a fast car, is it fast enough so you can fly away?
You gotta make a decision - Leave tonight or live and die this way

More in a bit,

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 08:03:35

This is what my vote tallies look like with CAD, Meta4, and Visigoth (this could just as easily have been Omega) in red - I find this to be very compelling. I'm just going to go ahead and point out that if I'm not blue green at the start of this exercise, I can also be colored red without violating anything other than the Day 0 Sheriff vote, which makes me the de-facto 4th wolf using this method. I have to clear myself through posts alone and by arguing that were I a wolf the wolf strategy would have been different from the end of Day 1 onward.

This changes the Day 1 Sheriff and the Day 4 narrative substantially, in a way that makes a lot of sense in context.

I also put the Logic Puzzle solution in here for the hell of it.

[+] Logic Puzzle
Day 0 Sheriff: Too many missed votes. Only useful for checking for total wagon votes.
Day 3: San is next to red here so he can't be red. Stigmata and ICB wagons can have up to 3 more wolves between them, so there is at least one wolf in {CAD, Visigoth}
Day 1 Sheriff: maximum of 2 voters on CAD means that at least two of {CAD, Visigoth, Ryvvn, Meta4} are wolves because San can't be red. Already 2 voters on Nitestorm so AVS and Rictus can't be red.
Day 1 lynch: There won't be red past the first vote in the Stigmata wagon so Ryvvn can't be red. Rictus is next to red so he can't be red, but we already know that. Nitestorm and MEM wagons can have 3 more wolves between them, so at least one of {San, Meta4} is a wolf since AVS can't be red - but San can't be red so Meta4 is the wolf we're looking for.
Day 2: Necklessone is next to red so he can't be red. FurinMirado is next to red so he can't be red. Top wagons can hold 2 wolves between them so at least two of {Omega, Meta4, Visigoth, CAD} are wolves since Ryvvn can't be red.
Day 4: Necklessone, Furin, AVS, and Rictus can't be red so there's a maximum of two wolves in the top 3 wagons. That means at least two of {CAD, Meta4, Omega} are wolves.
Day 5: Nobody in the twdog wagon can be red and San can't be red, so now all four wolves have to be among {Visigoth, Omega, CAD, Meta4} since Ryvvn and AVS can't be red. Visigoth and Omega are next to each other, so they can't both be red – this technique will give us a maximum of 3 wolves in our set with the 3rd wolf being one of {Visigoth, Omega}. The 4th wolf violates these rules in at least one spot. This means that every single set of wolves that follows these rules MUST contain {CAD, Meta4}


[+] Day 0
Day 0 Sheriff wrote:No Sheriff - 9 - Admetus, FurinMirado, necklessone, Ozymandias, Rictus (retracted), Smirker, Hellheart, Stigmata, 7-zark-7, Simple_simon
Nitestorm - 3 - Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
dferrantino - 3 - dferrantino, Rictus, Ryvvn
simple_simon - 2 - Visigoth, rekard
rekard - 1 - Clearasday, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ravebomb- 1 - Blindsniper83
Admetus - 0 - Ozymandias (retracted)

Did Not Vote - 8 - Aldax, Augenvonsauron, Meta4, Mister E. Meat, Omega, Ravebomb, San, twdog

[+] Day 1
Day 1 wrote:Sheriff Vote:

Nitestorm- 9 - Nitestorm, 7-zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Augenvonsauron, Smirker, RaveBomb, stigmata, dferrantino, Rictus
Clearasday - 8 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, Ozymandias (retracted), necklessone, rekard, Ozymandias, FurinMirado, Admetus, Aldax
FurinMirado - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Clearasday, Mister E. Meat, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ozymandias - 2 - Visigoth, Simple_Simon
Admetus - 2 - Hellheart, Ozymandias (retracted), Ryvvn, Admetus (retracted)
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83
RaveBomb - 1 - twdog
No Sheriff - 1 - Mister E. Meat (retracted), Ozymandias (retracted), Meta4
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)
Visigoth - 0 - rekard (retracted)
Smirker - 0 - Smirker (retracted)

Did Not Vote – 1 - San

Lynch Vote:

Nitestorm - 5 - Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, RaveBomb, Ozymandias
Mister E. Meat - 5 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito
Stigmata - 3 - Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias (retracted)
Admetus - 3 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito (retracted), Rictus, Aldax
Ozymandias - 3 - Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday - 2 - 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron
Omega - 2 - Mister E. Meat, Admetus
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83, Ozymandias (retracted)
Blindsniper83 - 1 - San
RaveBomb - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - twdog
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)

[+] Day 2
Day 2 wrote:stigmata - 7 - Ozymandias (retracted), Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, necklessone, Iron Clad Burrito, 7-Zark-7, Rictus, dferrantino
dferrantino - 7 - San, Augenvonsauron, FurinMirado, stigmata, twdog, Ozymandias x 2
San - 3 - Simple_Simon, dferrantino, Ozymandias (retracted), Omega
Ozymandias - 1 - Smirker (retracted), Meta4
Iron Clad Burrito - 2 - rekard, Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
rekard - 1 - Blindsniper83
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Smirker

No vote: Aldax, RaveBomb

[+] Day 3
Day 3 wrote:stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega (retracted), Ryvvn
Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias x2 (retracted), Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
San - 1 - Aldax
Hellheart - 1 - Visigoth
twdog - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)

[+] Day 4
Day 4 wrote:Iron Clad Burrito - 4 - necklessone, Ozymandias x 2, Omega
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - Ozymandias x 2 (retracted), FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
Augenvonsauron - 2 - 7-zark-7, Clearasday
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
Ozymandias - 1 - San
twdog - 1 - Ozymandias x 2 (retracted), Hellheart

Still to Vote - 4 - Aldax, Mister E. Meat, Omega, twdog

[+] Day 5
Day 5 wrote:twdog - 9 - Penalty x 2, Rictus, Mister E. Meat, necklessone, Hellheart, FurinMirado, DastardlyOldMan x2
FurinMirado - 4 - San, DastardlyOldMan x2 (retracted), Blindsniper83
Aldax - 2 - Penalty x2
Mister E. Meat - 2 - Penalty x 2
San - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Visigoth, Omega
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Meta4 - 1 - Clearasday
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart - 1 - twdog
Visigoth - 0 - FurinMirado (retracted)

Still to Vote – Aldax, Augenvonsauron
Last edited by Hellheart on 10 Feb 2014, 09:09:58, edited 6 times in total.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 08:11:20

Also, RETRACTED was Clearasday because if he's a wolf that soft-clears Furin via the Day 1 Sheriff vote.
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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby 7-zark-7 » 10 Feb 2014, 08:41:40

((OOC: Hellheart, I ~really~ wish you'd use different colors for confirmed Humans (seer or dead) vs your leans. I heavily distrust any chart that lists the creator as human unless they've been formally cleared, & I'd rather benefit from your work than dismiss it.))

Love & kisses,

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 08:50:58

Visigoth wrote:His little "woe is me" post on Day 4 about probably only living a couple more days which as Ozymandias pointed out wasn't the case at all due to the number of confirmed humans. Felt like a sympathy ploy. Also not fond of him coloring himself in as blue on his charts and telling every to look, look at his charts that doesn't show his name in black. Feels more than a bit manipulative. Plus I seem to have misplaced my manual which states just where and how humans and wolves are supposed to vote. And seeing as how you've totally misjudged my votes I'm guessing that whatever manual you are using doesn't appear to be correct. Let us not forget the game where Ozymandias basically orchestrated having all, well five out of six, of the wolves vote on one person on Day 2.

If I kept nailing wolves left and right, which has yet to happen but theoretically could, there is damn good reason for the wolves to maul me before they maul all of the confirmed humans. If all the wolf-hunters are dead it becomes a lot harder to find the wolves.

I prefaced the entire thing by saying that I colored MEM, Aldax, and myself blue, and that any player that doesn't agree with some or all of that should revert the colors. This is as simple as pasting the charts into Word and changing my font color to black. It takes a minute at most. You could also use Rictus' charts instead, as I suggested, and you'll find that Aldax can also be a wolf but both MEM and I violate a rule.

There are three basic rules that the wolves normally follow when voting - "spread your votes out," "don't vote in pairs," and "don't you dare backstab us or we'll lynch you." As you mentioned, the wolves don't always follow these rules - the Ozymandias scenario you describe is one example, the triple-vote on San when Ryvvn was in danger in Tempus Vigilantes is another one - but if they violate these rules they do it for a purpose. Ozy wasn't a wolf this game and there's not a lot of space for wolf shenanigans that don't end up killing other wolves in the process.

7-Zark-7 wrote:((OOC: Hellheart, I ~really~ wish you'd use different colors for confirmed Humans (seer or dead) vs your leans. I heavily distrust any chart that lists the creator as human unless they've been formally cleared, & I'd rather benefit from your work than dismiss it.))

Give me about 5 minutes and I'll shift the 3 non-confirmed humans to Green. I didn't think about it at the time since I had to plug color code in everywhere.

EDIT: Initial tally is fixed, fixing the one with red now. I never think about how sketchy that looks - I did the same damn thing last game.

EDIT2: Done...no wait now Smirker is green in one part...okay NOW it's done.
Last edited by Hellheart on 10 Feb 2014, 09:11:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Mister E. Meat » 10 Feb 2014, 09:06:24

I said yesterday that my top choices were San and twdog. Since I was wrong about the one, let's see about the other.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Aldax » 10 Feb 2014, 09:58:07

*sigh* so I lose a weekend and see what you guys have done :flail:
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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 10:07:58

Aldax wrote:*sigh* so I lose a weekend and see what you guys have done :flail:

You have...an awful lot of backlog to read over. We had over a page of reads and analysis yesterday.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Omega » 10 Feb 2014, 11:15:35

Meta4 remains very suspicious to me, what better wolf cover than "I don't know what's going on Villager"

Visigoth is also suspicious to me, though that's ebbed recently.

AugenVonSauron is setting off alarm bells, though, I wonder if that's because she is a special and not a wolf.

Hrmm...

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby sphenodont » 10 Feb 2014, 11:24:04

I updated the OP with Smirker's vote for Meta4 and Aldax's vote penalty.

I still haven't heard from Aldax, so if I don't hear from him by 5 o'clock, I will consider him WOGged.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 11:30:55

sphenodont wrote:I updated the OP with Smirker's vote for Meta4 and Aldax's vote penalty.

I still haven't heard from Aldax, so if I don't hear from him by 5 o'clock, I will consider him WOGged.

He...uh...well...how do I put this...

Aldax wrote:*sigh* so I lose a weekend and see what you guys have done :flail:

Thanks, that'll do it!

----

Omega, why do you think ICB voted for you on Day 4?

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby FurinMirado » 10 Feb 2014, 11:32:30

sphenodont wrote:I updated the OP with Smirker's vote for Meta4 and Aldax's vote penalty.

I still haven't heard from Aldax, so if I don't hear from him by 5 o'clock, I will consider him WOGged.

If you're feeling bored you can put me at 2 votes instead of 4. When DOM retracted it looks like his votes didn't disappear. Unless those that voted for me each have an extra vote. Which would make things very interesting.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Omega » 10 Feb 2014, 11:48:05

Hellheart wrote:Omega, why do you think ICB voted for you on Day 4?


On Day 3, Iron Clad Burrito, had a lot of heat, barely losing to Stigmata (remember in the Day 3 tally, Ozymandias' last minute retraction with an attempt to snipe Stigmata artificially lowers ICB's vote count.) Based on this, he likely wanted to change the conversation, and what better way to do that than by swapping to the last person to vote for him, especially following DOM, and not starting the wagon himself.

That being said, I was going to follow Ozy's votes while he was still alive, he had role-claimed and none had challenged it. So my voting for ICB on the day of his death was locked in as soon as Ozy voted for him, though, I did hold on to the vote until later as I was at 2 votes most of the day.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Meta4 » 10 Feb 2014, 12:55:40

Mister E. Meat, due to a lack of accuracy.
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 13:13:29

Omega wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Omega, why do you think ICB voted for you on Day 4?


On Day 3, Iron Clad Burrito, had a lot of heat, barely losing to Stigmata (remember in the Day 3 tally, Ozymandias' last minute retraction with an attempt to snipe Stigmata artificially lowers ICB's vote count.) Based on this, he likely wanted to change the conversation, and what better way to do that than by swapping to the last person to vote for him, especially following DOM, and not starting the wagon himself.

That being said, I was going to follow Ozy's votes while he was still alive, he had role-claimed and none had challenged it. So my voting for ICB on the day of his death was locked in as soon as Ozy voted for him, though, I did hold on to the vote until later as I was at 2 votes most of the day.

I can see that, with the late vote shenanigans you pulled on Day 3 and Stigmata being a wolf perhaps he thought your wagon would take off. Like...I think it was Visigoth...I was having serious difficulty figuring out why ICB cast that vote.

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Aldax » 10 Feb 2014, 13:15:24

putting a pre-emptive lynch vote on San, I'll go catch up!

OT: Sorry to have missed almost 3 simultaneous votes, had to visit the doctor because of a goddamned flu that really hit me hard
Moral of the story: Never self-vig. - rekard

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby 7-zark-7 » 10 Feb 2014, 13:22:12

Tow truck is here - but they forgot our order of chocolate covered strawberries. You can't get good help these days. In other news, Hellheart asserts that Meta4, Visigoth, and Clearasday are the remaining wolves. His analysis lines up with Ozy’s and at least some of mine, although I'd prefer to hear from the GM if "The last wolf" from the late SEP Foundation maul report is a fourth wolf, or a repeat of the third. My concern is that we have four, and one is going to be difficult to find:

Subject: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Ozymandias wrote:if Augie's a Wolf, then I'm pretty sure CAD is not, and vice-versa.


Subject: Day 04: I've got a theory, it could be Witches.

Ozymandias wrote:Next stop on the Day 1 Bandwagon Lynch Tour: Nitestorm!

<snip>
if I had to rank the Wolfiness (from most to least) of the Nitestorm bandwagon, it would be:

(1) Visigoth / (2) Clearasday / (3) FurinMirado

Though if Augie isn't a Wolf (see earlier post), then CAD might be (1B) to Visigoth's (1A)

I highly doubt there's more than 1 Wolf in this bandwagon-- as I said, there may not be any.


I don't want to beat a dead horse, but I'm still interested in a peek up Augie's skirt (I admit it - it's the hair).

Omega wrote:AugenVonSauron is setting off alarm bells, though, I wonder if that's because she is a special and not a wolf.


I buy distraction (so long as it's on sale), but there's only a couple of specials left, & I'd expect neither to play the way Augie has. The Witch should be paying more attention (she certainly was when it came to saving Ozy), & the Hunter wants to be mauled & would be trying to draw attention, without looking like he was drawing attention. You know, flying casual. Since Augie doesn't seem to be gaining any traction, I'm throwing my ringing endorsement behind the historic wolf who has been carrying my severed head around all game. retracted, was Clearasday? Perhaps. But color him green or red & more will be clear. If Clear is not the wolf he's depicted as in his Avatar, I'll be back on the redhead in the morning (presuming I'm still here, that is). DOM, if I'm not around, the keys to the car are in the cigar box, & the ignition code is 1,2,3,4,5

More in a bit,

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Re: Day 06: Like Shooting Villagers In A Barrel, Too!

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 13:27:30

Aldax wrote:putting a pre-emptive lynch vote on San, I'll go catch up!

OT: Sorry to have missed almost 3 simultaneous votes, had to visit the doctor because of a goddamned flu that really hit me hard

Not a problem, although I have a much stronger human read on you than a lot of the other players. You definitely need to start building a serious voting record, but certainly make it an informed one. Hell, one meaningful vote and you'll already have more of a voting record than Meta4!

I think the playerbase is split on San and I can't hard-defend him, but there are alternatives that might be worth looking at. San said there was an unspecified voting pattern yesterday that would play into an unspecified pattern today, and I think I know what he's talking about.

If people aren't on board with CAD I'm equally willing to vote for Meta4, but coloring him red does nothing for us other than knowing what went down with his Day 4 wagon. I'm not going to push anyone myself, and if my preferred wagons aren't going to be among the leaders then I'm going to vote for the guy that I personally feel is more wolfy.


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