Day 07: The Tightening Noose

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Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby sphenodont » 10 Feb 2014, 20:25:02

Boom! Auggie dies.

Chomp! Zark dies.

Cough*sputter*ack! San dies.


Augenvonsauron and San were wolves.
Zark was a bog standard villager.

CAD has two penalty votes.

I go to sleep now.

[+] Day 06 Voting History
Ryvvn votes for necklessone
San votes for Omega
FurinMirado votes for Visigoth
Hellheart votes for Clearasday (retracted)
Mister E. Meat votes for San
Meta4 votes for Mister E. Meat
Aldax votes for San
7-zark-7 votes for Clearasday (retracted)
Visigoth votes for San
Omega votes for San
Rictus votes for Augenvonsauron
DastardlyOldMan votes for Augenvonsauron
7-zark-7 votes for Augenvonsauron
Hellheart votes for Augenvonsauron
Augenvonsauron votes for San
necklessone votes for Augenvonsauron (retracted)
necklessone votes for Augenvonsauron


Voting Totals
Augenvonsauron - 6 - Rictus, DastardlyOldMan x2, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, necklessone (retracted), necklessone
San - 5 - Mister E. Meat, Aldax, Visigoth, Omega, Augenvonsauron
Aldax - 4 - Penalty x 4
necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - San
Visigoth - 1 - FurinMirado
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Meta4
Clearasday - 0 - Hellheart (retracted), 7-zark-7 (retracted)
Yet to Vote: Clearasday

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 10 Feb 2014, 20:30:54

Haha, thanks; that's all we really needed anyways ;)

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Omega » 10 Feb 2014, 20:37:07

Well, now that we've some breathing room, let's find the last two furballs.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 20:44:28

I couldn't believe it when Zark, Necklessone, and Blindsniper all voted for DOM with 10 minutes to go. My God guys, he wasn't just a confirmed human - he was the sheriff. And then Ryvvn saves the day with a :59 vote for AVS citing some bullshit reason that doesn't matter anymore since AVS was a wolf. And don't get me started with Ravebomb getting resurrected halfway through the day and challenging everyone to a duel. I know it sounds crazy, but after what happened yesterday I'm convinced that something is FUBAR about this game - I think the only way we can truly win is to lynch Sphenodont.

----------

I would've gotten to San eventually, but I would've mislynched one or two players in the process. Great snipe, Omega. I'm glad I just sucked it up and followed Zark's gut onto AVS instead of insisting on some other player. I was never moving from AVS after he magically appeared when he got bandwagoned, though. I sincerely did think San was the Hunter - I've never seen him play that way. It was a clever move, but sooner or later it was going to be Policy-Lynch San Time regardless.

EDIT: Actually, I think San was more talkative in a recent game as well. But IIRC he was a human there.

You walk a very thin line as a power role, Omega. You pulled it off much better than the previous game, though, and you started contributing at the perfect time to counter the building heat. Very well-played.

I don't think any player that publicly stated that they disliked both wagons after they got built up is a wolf. That just looks Godawful after both wagons were revealed.
Last edited by Hellheart on 10 Feb 2014, 21:28:38, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 10 Feb 2014, 20:56:33

:lol: That's so Ryvvn!

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 10 Feb 2014, 20:58:00

Also, I'm outta avatar changes until my death, so sticking with this one til win, lynch, or maul.

(and, no, my final avatar is not somehow this toy in wolf form)

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 10 Feb 2014, 21:12:34

Not trying to jumpstart a wagon on someone with penalty votes, so holding back the actual vote for now, but it's gotta be CAD right?

edit: I really should include my reasoning with things like this... I'm looking at the D1 Nitestorm wagon, which has Visi, Furin, and CAD as the unknowns. D2 would see a huge block of red on dferr within the first halfish of the day's votes, so kind of ruling Furin out for that. CAD has that late throwaway vote on me, and Visi has an earlier singleton on Furin. D3 CAD could be the wolf on the ICB wagon, but once again Furin would be seen on a wagon with a couple reds already; Visi has another early singleton on Hellheart this time. D4 Furin or Visi would put two wolves directly next to another on a wolf wagon, meanwhile CAD is (hiding?) alongside a human Zark on wolf AVS. A D5 wolf CAD can easily hide on the randomness of Meta while a slew of humans kill twdog; Visi would be right next to wolf AVS on wolf San. Disregarding D6 with CAD's no vote.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 21:22:43

I think these are colored right. Only MEM is green now because pre-analysis I now have a slight wolf lean on Aldax and I deserve some heat for soft-defending San.

I'll be gone for 30 mins to an hour - assuming I don't fall asleep since I pulled an all-nighter last night - before I can really look at the votes and see narratives, but CAD and Meta4 worked in virtually every wolf configuration, especially when they dicked around with the voting whenever a wolf was in trouble. There could be a much higher percentage of wolf votes for other wolves than in every other game I've charted.

EDIT3: Nevermind on Aldax, while double-checking the colors it's pretty obvious that consecutive San-Stigmata votes are likely a wolf attempt at a human wagon. Colored him green again.

EDIT2: Omega's being blue is potentially even more helpful for analysis than having both wolves exposed, if not by much. After I do this one round of analysis, I'm going to switch to the "reasons for being human" format for the remainder of the game since the wolf votes weren't playing nice. Granted I knew that at least one wolf would violate those rules, but now that two exceptions have been revealed I have to face the possibility that potentially none of the wolves followed expected voting principles.

[+] Day 0
Day 0 Sheriff wrote:No Sheriff - 9 - Admetus, FurinMirado, necklessone, Ozymandias, Rictus (retracted), Smirker, Hellheart, Stigmata, 7-zark-7, Simple_simon
Nitestorm - 3 - Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
dferrantino - 3 - dferrantino, Rictus, Ryvvn
simple_simon - 2 - Visigoth, rekard
rekard - 1 - Clearasday, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ravebomb- 1 - Blindsniper83
Admetus - 0 - Ozymandias (retracted)

Did Not Vote - 8 - Aldax, Augenvonsauron, Meta4, Mister E. Meat, Omega, Ravebomb, San, twdog

[+] Day 1
Day 1 wrote:Sheriff Vote:
Nitestorm- 9 - Nitestorm, 7-zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Augenvonsauron, Smirker, RaveBomb, stigmata, dferrantino, Rictus
Clearasday - 8 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, Ozymandias (retracted), necklessone, rekard, Ozymandias, FurinMirado, Admetus, Aldax
FurinMirado - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Clearasday, Mister E. Meat, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ozymandias - 2 - Visigoth, Simple_Simon
Admetus - 2 - Hellheart, Ozymandias (retracted), Ryvvn, Admetus (retracted)
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83
RaveBomb - 1 - twdog
No Sheriff - 1 - Mister E. Meat (retracted), Ozymandias (retracted), Meta4
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)
Visigoth - 0 - rekard (retracted)
Smirker - 0 - Smirker (retracted)

Did Not Vote – 1 - San

Lynch Vote:

Nitestorm - 5 - Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, RaveBomb, Ozymandias
Mister E. Meat - 5 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito
Stigmata - 3 - Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias (retracted)
Admetus - 3 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito (retracted), Rictus, Aldax
Ozymandias - 3 - Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday - 2 - 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron
Omega - 2 - Mister E. Meat, Admetus
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83, Ozymandias (retracted)
Blindsniper83 - 1 - San
RaveBomb - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart- 1 - twdog
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)

[+] Day 2
Day 2 wrote:stigmata - 7 - Ozymandias (retracted), Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, necklessone, Iron Clad Burrito, 7-Zark-7, Rictus, dferrantino
dferrantino - 7 - San, Augenvonsauron, FurinMirado, stigmata, twdog, Ozymandias x 2
San - 3 - Simple_Simon, dferrantino, Ozymandias (retracted), Omega
Ozymandias - 1 - Smirker (retracted), Meta4
Iron Clad Burrito - 2 - rekard, Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
rekard - 1 - Blindsniper83
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Smirker

No vote: Aldax, RaveBomb

[+] Day 3
Day 3 wrote:stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega (retracted), Ryvvn
Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias x2 (retracted), Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
Aldax [/color]- 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
San - 1 - Aldax
Hellheart- 1 - Visigoth
twdog - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)

[+] Day 4
Day 4 wrote:Iron Clad Burrito - 4 - necklessone, Ozymandias x 2, Omega
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - Ozymandias x 2 (retracted), FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
Augenvonsauron - 2 - 7-zark-7, Clearasday
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
Ozymandias - 1 - San
twdog - 1 - Ozymandias x 2 (retracted), Hellheart

Still to Vote - 4 - Aldax, Mister E. Meat, Omega, twdog

[+] Day 5
Day 5 wrote:twdog - 9 - Penalty x 2, Rictus, Mister E. Meat, necklessone, Hellheart, FurinMirado, DastardlyOldMan x2
FurinMirado - 4 - San, DastardlyOldMan x2 (retracted), Blindsniper83
Aldax - 2 - Penalty x2
Mister E. Meat - 2 - Penalty x 2
San - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Visigoth, Omega
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Meta4 - 1 - Clearasday
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart- 1 - twdog
Visigoth - 0 - FurinMirado (retracted)

Still to Vote – Aldax, Augenvonsauron

[+] Day 6
Augenvonsauron - 7 - Rictus, DastardlyOldMan x2, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Necklessone (retracted), Necklessone, Omega
San - 4 - Mister E. Meat, Aldax, Visigoth, Omega (retracted), Augenvonsauron
Aldax - 4 - Penalty Votes x4
necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - San
Visigoth - 1 - FurinMirado
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Meta4

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 10 Feb 2014, 23:00:20

[+] Sleep-Deprived potential wolf narratives
Day 1 Sheriff: 3 wolves on Nitestorm. If they voted Nitestorm up for a reason other than killing Ozy, it's because CAD got 2 votes early - FurinMirado gets his 2nd vote after both ICB and AVS have casted their votes. Rictus could be a wolf if they're trying to be cute, with CAD as the final wolf. I suppose that's not too farfetched.

Day 1 lynch: Still no wolves on Nitestorm. Both wolves could easily be there - I'm leaning towards CAD being one of them because he's the first player to cast a 3rd vote on anyone and Stigmata was sitting at 2 votes. If both wolves aren't on Nitestorm, then it's most likely one of {Hellheart, Rictus, Meta4}.

Day 2: 3 wolves in 4 votes on Dferrantino. How gutsy do we expect Furin to be here? I'd be rather surprised if there's a wolf on Stigmata besides ICB, so if Furin isn't a wolf then it's 2 players among {Meta4, Ryvvn, Visigoth, CAD}. I would note how the wolves clump up when a wolf gets into voting danger.

Day 3: The Aldax-Stigmata ping-pong narrative that I discarded when twdog turned up human actually did happen. I'm totally taking credit for calling that in advance - yeah so Zark may have noticed it before I did but I beat him to the claim so it's my credit.

The way the voting develops here is odd - CAD casts the 3rd vote on ICB and suddenly there's a large upswell of votes on both Stigmata and Aldax, most of which are wolf votes. You can either see this as a freakout wolf reaction - in which case CAD is human - or a planned sequence of votes to throw off analysis - in which case CAD is a wolf. Two wolves on ICB wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility, but it's more likely that one or both of {Meta4, Visigoth} is a wolf.

Day 4: AVS casting the 4th vote on San here is fascinating because a very early 4-vote bandwagon pulls a lot of heat off of San and is just distracting overall. ICB's throwaway vote on Omega can be interpreted several ways and I'm not sure how well I can dissect Day 4 so I'm leaving that alone.

Day 5: Visigoth stays on San while a bunch of human players vote twdog. It wouldn't be amiss to see no wolves at all vote for twdog to make his lynch more likely with a pristine-looking wagon. The usual suspects are off-wagon voters again.

Day 6: Other than San's early wagon, all of the meaningful votes come later on. What worries me is that I don't see a wolf other than AVS that hadn't casted a vote, which means that the heat CAD was getting may not have bothered the wolves (because he's not a wolf).

The wolf voting has been tricky whenever a wolf gets into danger - there have been agendas for several wolf votes and voting developments. I don't think ICB is experienced enough as a wolf to call the shots in this game, so who's capable of orchestrating this shit as a wolf?

I'll look into reasons for humanity after I get some sleep. My reasons for wolfishness at this point would be too subjective and I think there's enough exposed wolves and vote history to find human credibility for several players.

When I say "human reasons," I tend to be very strict in my interpretations of votes and vote timing. A human reason normally involves a wolf vote that pushes the player into danger and vice versa - if it doesn't come with the risk of death then it could be a wolf ploy. The only exception I expect to use is something like Aldax's Day 3 wagon, where two wolves are lumping up on his wagon even though Stigmata's vote by itself gives Aldax instant human credibility. San's vote there drew a ton of heat after Stigmata follows up his vote.

I'll leave finding the wolves to players who are better at picking them out in these nebulous situations. It took me nearly 20 overly-long posts and a long back-and-forth with Admetus to come to the correct wolves last game.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Omega » 10 Feb 2014, 23:16:11

Hellheart wrote:The wolf voting has been tricky whenever a wolf gets into danger - there have been agendas for several wolf votes and voting developments. I don't think ICB is experienced enough as a wolf to call the shots in this game, so who's capable of orchestrating this shit as a wolf?



Let me stop you here. ICB has been around since Game VII (when we were both wolves, actually.) He knows this game as well as any of us. That being said, I think tonight we saw that a lot of the "conventional" rules may have been tossed out for this game, and ICB was around when the surprising votes were made. I still think there is another veteran player in the wolf team though. (Or hell, maybe Meta4 is lone wolfing us!)

Tomorrow, assuming I have time at work, I'm going to run through the remaining active players and write up why each player is a human, the ones with the weakest arguments, will get further examination.

With respect to Zark, more in a bit.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 11 Feb 2014, 00:00:17

Hellheart wrote:so who's capable of orchestrating this shit as a wolf?

If you end up being a wolf, this statement deserves all the :roll:

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby FurinMirado » 11 Feb 2014, 03:44:53

I'm tossing my vote out for Clearasday, penalty votes be damned. I would be willing to lynch any of these 3 today and subsequent days:

Visigoth
Clearasday
Meta4



If I have time today I'll rework my analysis and see if anyone shifted significantly.


P.S. Thanks to Omega we can afford 4 bad lynches before we begin Day 11 in a "lynch a Wolf or lose" situation.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Mister E. Meat » 11 Feb 2014, 04:39:04

I did not like Rictus' post from late yesterday. Especially given that now both San and Augie turned out to be wolves. This post seems tailor made to try to save at least of the pairing.
Rictus wrote:I will say that going back on my notes, I'm not sold on AVS as a wolf. I thought he was my 3rd wolf, but now I don't know.

Yes, I know I just voted for him and that (maybe?) started a bandwagon on him.

I will be back before the end of the day (gotta put a kid to bed). I don't think San is a wolf, but since he's the alternate bandwagon I'm not sure what to do.

More later.


And speaking of saving the pairing, I'm not sure if no one voted for Aldax because it looks suspicious to vote for someone with 4 penalty votes or the really strange possibility that he too is a wolf and there were 3 of them all leading in votes. Because if not, why wouldn't San and or Augie vote to at least put him into a tie? If Aldax is human and San/Augie wins the tie, then tomorrow we again go after them but there's another human gone. So I think I have to vote Aldax today.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby sphenodont » 11 Feb 2014, 05:31:40

Hellheart wrote:I'm convinced that something is FUBAR about this game - I think the only way we can truly win is to lynch Sphenodont.


Hellheart has two very spiteful penalty votes.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby FurinMirado » 11 Feb 2014, 05:57:38

The Aldax FaxFacts

Day 1: Voted for Admetus (Human), Wolf Factor 1

Day 2: No Activity, Wolf Factor Remains at 1

Day 3: Votes for San (Wolf), though San not in danger, Nets to Zero
Acquires 5 votes: 2 penalty, 1 Human, 2 Wolves - stigmata choses to vote for him over ICB, Human Factor 1

Day 4: No Activity, Wolf Factor/Human Factor net to zero

Day 5: No Activity

Day 6: Voted for San (Wolf) putting him in a tie with Clearasday (Unknown), Human Factor 1


He has a lot of inactivity, but he is trending towards Human for me. I don't think we really need to be trying to lynch him today.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Meta4 » 11 Feb 2014, 06:09:41

Hellheart, those penalty votes have got to sting.
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 11 Feb 2014, 06:45:01

Logging my vote for Clearasday (RETRACTED) before I start the work day; Meta4's been an absolute zero threat this game, so he can wait for tomorrow if we decide he's finally up for lynching.

...of course, if those penalty votes on Hellheart are serious, might be a good opportunity to find out if Hellheart's been playing what he might consider his best wofl gaem evar!
Last edited by Ryvvn on 11 Feb 2014, 18:22:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby sphenodont » 11 Feb 2014, 06:47:31

They aren't.

But they are full of spite.

Spite spite spite.

And also Sprite.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 11 Feb 2014, 06:50:54

sphenodont wrote:And also Sprite.

Yuck, I'd rather be WoG'd than slapped with a Sprite penalty!

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Rictus » 11 Feb 2014, 09:10:38

Mister E. Meat wrote:I did not like Rictus' post from late yesterday. Especially given that now both San and Augie turned out to be wolves. This post seems tailor made to try to save at least of the pairing.
Rictus wrote:I will say that going back on my notes, I'm not sold on AVS as a wolf. I thought he was my 3rd wolf, but now I don't know.

Yes, I know I just voted for him and that (maybe?) started a bandwagon on him.

I will be back before the end of the day (gotta put a kid to bed). I don't think San is a wolf, but since he's the alternate bandwagon I'm not sure what to do.

More later.


And speaking of saving the pairing, I'm not sure if no one voted for Aldax because it looks suspicious to vote for someone with 4 penalty votes or the really strange possibility that he too is a wolf and there were 3 of them all leading in votes. Because if not, why wouldn't San and or Augie vote to at least put him into a tie? If Aldax is human and San/Augie wins the tie, then tomorrow we again go after them but there's another human gone. So I think I have to vote Aldax today.


I like the first part of this post, even though it's bad for me.

1) I like that MEM made this post. He's pretty much confirmed human, so you don't have to wonder why human-MEM made the post... it's because he thinks I look more wolfy. I don't have to spend a lot of energy peeling back the layers, and neither does anyone else. If unknown-Ryvvn had made this post, it would have required so much more energy to decode...
"Does human-Ryvvn think Rictus is wolfly?"
"Is wolf-Ryvvn trying to implicate human-Rictus?"
"Is wolf-Ryvvn trying to implicate wolf-Rictus?"
etc etc.

At some point, somebody would have said "Ehh, lets just lynch one of them and see what it tells us."

2) I originally posted against AVS because I was suspicious of him and then Zark put him in his maybe-last-will-and-testament at the end of Day5.

But then I started waffling because my reasons for San being more human than AVS were based on twdog being a wolf. Once I took a minute and updated my notes (from the weekend) with twdog being blue, it removed one of the reasons I thought San was human.

So there I was, sitting as the first vote on AVS when I was leaning back towards San being a wolf. I started to doubt myself based on Day 5. On that day, I *knew* that twdog was a wolf, and I started the votes early on him. Now on Day 6 I was the first person on AVS and if AVS came up human it would look very bad for me.

When I feel strongly about a wolf/human, I don't mind having a terrible vote (see the last game...) but when I'm only 60% sure I'm a lot more cautious. So that's why I made my waffling post.

3) In my defense, I started the AVS votes when it was:

Aldax - 4 - 4xPenalty Votes
San - 4 - Mister E. Meat, Aldax, Visigoth, Omega
Clearasday - 2 - Hellheart, 7-zark-7
necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - San
Visigoth - 1 - FurinMirado
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Meta4

If I was a wolf, I wouldn't have started a off-wagon on wolf-AVS. I would have voted Aldax to protect San (as you mentioned in your post) or thrown a second vote on CAD. Now if CAD is also a wolf, I might have sheeped onto San for Human Cred. Either way, I believe that starting the votes for AVS was a pretty human move.

Finally, Day 6 was very short, just two pages. I encourage everyone to go back and see how the day played out... I 'm a bit worried that I'm just reinforcing my own suspicions, so I'm not yet prepared to call out the wolf who's been making the run for being the lone-wolf.
Charming, to the last.
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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 11 Feb 2014, 09:48:31

Just an FYI, work is insane right now, so I will not be contributing anything of substance until later tonight, but duly noted to give Day 6 a reread (and probably 4 & 5 as well, given the new info that we have).

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 09:54:22

sphenodont wrote:They aren't.

But they are full of spite.

Spite spite spite.

And also Sprite.

What makes a melonball bounce?

Omega wrote:Let me stop you here. ICB has been around since Game VII (when we were both wolves, actually.) He knows this game as well as any of us. That being said, I think tonight we saw that a lot of the "conventional" rules may have been tossed out for this game, and ICB was around when the surprising votes were made. I still think there is another veteran player in the wolf team though. (Or hell, maybe Meta4 is lone wolfing us!)

I said not much experience as a wolf, which is something he says all the time since this is what, his 5th or 6th time as a wolf in close to 50 games according to him? He's generally smart/knowledgeable enough to pull it off if he got a feel for how to screw with people as a wolf, though...it's just that his own votes were a little too transparent for me to lean that way.

Mister E. Meat wrote:Because if not, why wouldn't San and or Augie vote to at least put him into a tie? If Aldax is human and San/Augie wins the tie, then tomorrow we again go after them but there's another human gone. So I think I have to vote Aldax today.

Tying Aldax is pointless - Sheriff, remember? DOM's going to chop somebody else before he chops Aldax. Voting Aldax to tie would have been unbelievably suspicious, and voting him ahead is going to get a wolf insta-lynched the following day.

FurinMirado wrote:I would be willing to lynch any of these 3 today and subsequent days:

Visigoth
Clearasday
Meta4

I still agree with Furin's list, although it's possible that Rictus is playing a very tricky wolf game. CAD is more than capable of orchestrating the wolves to do pretty much anything - especially if it involves a lot of backstabbing, which is his specialty.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 10:11:48

Ryvvn wrote:...of course, if those penalty votes on Hellheart are serious, might be a good opportunity to find out if Hellheart's been playing what he might consider his best wofl gaem evar!

My first one was awful other than the vote to lynch you, so that's not difficult.

If I were a wolf, I would have pushed ICB so ridiculously hard on Day 2, you don't even understand. When you have a 4-way tie involving a wolf on Day 1 just let it ride. Sit tight and hope you don't hit the 25% chance of losing a wolf. A wolf that votes late to break that tie is exposing himself as a wolf AND making it very likely that at least one of the players in the tie is a wolf. If you let it ride, yeah it sucks if Stigmata ends up dying but that's unlikely and if it does happen it will be very hard to pull other wolves from that death; meanwhile, if a human dies instead then people are going to wonder if all four of those wagons were actually human.

Of course, what would've happened is Ozy snipe-voting Nitestorm to death to break a 4-way tie. He probably would've had to claim Seer on Day 2 to avoid the lynch...hell, he might still have been lynched anyway.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Omega » 11 Feb 2014, 10:14:34

So as I look at my nice colorful workbook, I ask myself a different question. Now I wonder, where else would a wolf be.

Day 6 - One would think one would be on Augie [Rictus, Hellheart, Necklessone]

Day 5 - One must be on twdog [Rictus, Mister E. Meat, Necklessone, Hellheat, FurinMIrado]

Day 4 - One must have been on ICB - Did Necklessone start the ICB vote? Great way to build Human Cred. [Necklessone]

Day 3 - 2 wolves on Stigmata and Aldax, one was likely on ICB [Clearasday, Necklessone, Rictus]

Day 2 - 3 wolves on dferrantino, was there a second on stigmata? [Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, Necklessone, Rictus]

Day 1 - This one is the most jumbled for me. it is day 1 afterall so there is a huge amount of "random" votes. But I will give necklessone a -1 for this, because would there really have been 2 wolves on MEM?

Necklessone - 4
Rictus - 4
HellHeart - 3
Mister E. Meat - 2
Clearasday - 1
FurinMirado - 1

Necklessone...are you a cop? Wait, that's not right. Are you a wolf?!

Rictus, same question. (The wolf one, not the cop one...)

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 10:24:39

San votes look better than AVS votes for human cred yesterday, and I'm pretty sure at least one of the wolves knew that. AVS wasn't even a possibility when the San votes landed, and once the AVS wagon started I don't remember a lot of off-wagon votes. Just a bunch of votes for AVS and one AVS vote for San.

Once the AVS wagon gets rolling, jumping on it as a wolf is a pretty easy move, but if DOM is on board with AVS then any vote beyond tying isn't going to make a difference after AVS cast the defensive vote. You don't look human for doing that, although you do look human for pushing AVS.

I'm thinking that Rictus could've cast that early vote for human cred, but outside of that I think that other than AVS, the wolves probably all cast their votes before the AVS-wagon because AVS was clearly the one in charge of the sniping vote. You know when San gets voted up to 4 that somebody else is going to be voted up to at least tie San, so for the wolves it makes a ton of sense to have as many human candidates for that as possible. Vote for wolfy humans and hope one takes off.

EDIT: Was there another off-wagon besides CAD before the AVS wagon took off? I could see a wolf switching a vote from one of them. If there isn't, there's not much off-wagon room...well, unless Meta4 is one of the wolves. Then there's plenty of off-wagon room, or the last wolf is on San.

EDIT2: There were no other off-wagons, but CAD didn't vote yesterda. Ryvvn is human for me and Furin is neutral-human for me. Somebody other than me questioned ICB's vote on Omega. I'm going to rummage for that post.
Last edited by Hellheart on 11 Feb 2014, 10:46:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Omega » 11 Feb 2014, 10:45:14

Part of me has wondered all game if you and Furin are wolves and have been bantering amongst yourselves.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 10:50:42

Omega wrote:Part of me has wondered all game if you and Furin are wolves and have been bantering amongst yourselves.

Man, I wish. But I'm always pushing ICB on Day 2 as a wolf. If ICB flips wolf that might save Stigmata, while if Stigmata flips first then both of them die.

EDIT: I'd also be crying bloody murder at the time, but that's besides the point.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby FurinMirado » 11 Feb 2014, 10:56:26

Omega wrote:Part of me has wondered all game if you and Furin are wolves and have been bantering amongst yourselves.

Well the good news is, if I'm a Wolf, I'm at the point in the game where I'm giving you truthful analysis and selling out my buddiesbuddy to lone wolf it to victory.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 11:09:05

The original point was Visigoth's, but he was using it to implicate San and Meta4 and doesn't speculate about Omega's wolfishness. I'm dropping that thread, then.

Visigoth wrote:Still liking San even with the possible explanation of voting on Aldax. Also possibly adding Meta4 to the list. Part of the reason for both is yesterday's vote where Iron Clad Burrito cast a "throwaway" vote on Omega before apparently leaving for the rest of the day. At that time San and Meta4 were at 3 votes each, Rictus at 2 and with Iron Clad Burrito's vote putting Omega at 2 as well. Now at the time he had only one vote, but was there was the threat there from Ozymandias and others. So why make a throwaway vote when he could have put out a pre-emptive defensive vote on one of the other leaders.


But hey, here's an interesting portion of San's post 2 days ago:

San wrote:Aldax was purposeful bait to attract wolf votes. One confirmed wolf fell into the trap. However, thanks to the shenanigans on day 3, either twdog's a wolf, and Aldax is hunam. Or Aldax is a wolf, and twdog is hunam, and stigmata tried to give Aldax some sacrificial hunam credibility.

Based on the pattern, FurinMirado over Omega, because 2nd / 3rd vote placer on 2 lynched hunam.
Aldax, twdog.

So he lists two names, and one is a wolf while other is human - apparently that's his pattern. Of course, that came the day that we lynched twdog so if Aldax had voted maybe the wolves try a different tack the following day. He had two of these namesets on Day 4, which were...

San wrote:Hellheart, FurinMirado, Ryvvn?
MisterE.Meat, AugenVonSauron?

Ugh, of course he has AVS in that last one. Why can't they all just be hunam human?

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 11:18:52

What the hell Demiurge. A new PvE event, Lightning Rounds, and Doubleshot ending today? Why do you hate my free time?

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 11:57:58

I'm edging towards CAD because he's more likely to be a wolf than Meta4 IMO, but I don't mind lynching Meta4 either. I mean, c'mon, what do we lose if we lynch him and he's a human? Confirmed and super-likely humans stop getting inexplicable votes, oh no what a huge loss!

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Mister E. Meat » 11 Feb 2014, 12:46:11

HellHeart wrote:Tying Aldax is pointless - Sheriff, remember? DOM's going to chop somebody else before he chops Aldax. Voting Aldax to tie would have been unbelievably suspicious, and voting him ahead is going to get a wolf insta-lynched the following day.

I realize I'm kind of fixating on this but I can't seem to get it out of my head. I'm just saying that if I were in that situation where you have two wolves tied up, why not try to vote the penalty guy that already has 4 votes? The downside is that it's incredibly suspicious - OK, I get that but one of you is dead anyhow.

I'll also admit that I didn't see the case of Augie at the time but given the way this game has gone - Stigmata, ICB, San getting heat day over day - there was really no reason to expect that Augie would avoid getting significant heat today. So IMO, they could have figured out a sacrificial wolf and tried for the Aldax lynch. I keep coming to the conclusion that they didn't because Aldax was also a wolf.

I'm not averse to CAD or Visigoth as my other viable choices but I don't feel that gut feel like I do with Aldax (even with Furin's little chart above).

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Clearasday » 11 Feb 2014, 12:48:31

Likeliness doesnt mean a damn thing. If you knew my playstyle as a wolf you'd actually think I was less likely to be one this time around. Anyway, I apologise for missing yesterday's vote, I've just been distracted. Today I shall muse more before voting. I'm sure the last wolves are merely hiding, but I would caution 'clearing' anyone that hasnt been seered, just in case they're pulling a long game.
THERE IS NO JUSTICE, THERE IS JUST CLEARASDAY.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 12:56:04

Clearasday wrote:Likeliness doesnt mean a damn thing. If you knew my playstyle as a wolf you'd actually think I was less likely to be one this time around. Anyway, I apologise for missing yesterday's vote, I've just been distracted. Today I shall muse more before voting. I'm sure the last wolves are merely hiding, but I would caution 'clearing' anyone that hasnt been seered, just in case they're pulling a long game.

I agree with this. Aldax is somewhat of a soft-clear still for me, but it's difficult to see him as a wolf unless the wolves literally gave up entirely on lynching a human.

If you think MEM could ever be a wolf, I have a bridge to sell you. The wolves couldn't have predicted Ozy's snipe vote because if they did they wouldn't have voted at all. If MEM is a wolf, you have to explain how and why the wolves thought it would be a good idea for wolf-ICB to kill him Day 1.

And why MEM would go along with that plan. "Hey, I know you joined up because you wanted to play, but we're going to kill you off on Day 1 to give ICB some human cred." MEM's willing to sacrifice for the team, but that's probably going a step too far.

EDIT: My wolf suspicions of you have nothing to do with your playstyle - I've moved away from that for most players because it's so damn unreliable. In the Day 1 Sheriff vote, we have 3 wolves on Nitestorm and 1 wolf not voting. The wolves sometimes set things up to implicate somebody long-term, but doing so on Day 1 sounds a little farfetched - and it pulled both Ozy's and Zark's attention to the Nitestorm wagon. So if there are 3 votes on Nitestorm, where are the other wolves likely to be? I'd say either 4 wolves on Nitestorm or one on an off-wagon, and the last one would be on you or another off-wagon. So 3 or 4 wolf votes for Nitestorm, one or two wolf votes on Furin or a total off-wagon, and a maximum of 1 wolf vote for you unless Neckless and Furin are the two remaining wolves.

You had 8 votes and I'm pretty sure only 1 of them at most came from a wolf. Nitestorm gets his 3rd and 4th vote from two consecutive wolf votes to break a tie with a bunch of players and push him way into the lead. Perhaps they wanted to hide their votes, but then Stigmata puts the 7th vote on him when you and Furin have 4 votes. Are they really handing a list of wolves to Ozy or is there another reason for this?

Keep in mind that every other time when the wolves clump up like that this game, a wolf has been in danger.

EDIT2: The players with 2 Sheriff votes at the time of the ICB-AVS dualvote were: Nitestorm, CAD, Admetus, Ozymandias. That's 3 confirmed humans and CAD.

Nitestorm either dies or is elected Sheriff, they maul Admetus, and Ozy would never live long enough to be implicated. So it would be a move designed to implicate CAD and CAD alone, even though they know that Ozy's going to push the Nitestorm Sheriff voters until he dies.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 13:33:42

Clearasday. I'd be amazed if there's a better explanation for those votes or a better wolf-case on anybody else today.

And if he's a wolf, it would also make me feel better about pushing him yesterday.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 11 Feb 2014, 13:56:24

Rictus - I'm not seeing anything horribly damning in yesterday, maybe a twitch when necklessone juggles his vote around a bit, but nothing horrible.

I do want to note (repeating a bit from yesterday), that Furin called out for San (and CAD) to be seered when Ozy made the request - in my mind, that gives Furin another bump in humanity.

Re: CAD, I'm looking at the timing of the votes on Day 1, particularly when Augen drops the second vote on CAD:
Stigmata - 2 - Hellheart, Smirker
Mister E. Meat - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega
Ozymandias - 2 - Nitestorm, simple_simon
Nitestorm - 2 - Visigoth, FurinMirado
Admetus - 2- Rekard, ICB
7-zark-7 - RaveBomb
Omega - Mister E. Meat
Clearasday - 7-zark-7 + AVS

(I think that's right).

There are already 5 2-person bandwagons going on, one of which contains a wolf (two in the ~edge case that MEM is not human). Would Augie vote to make two out of the six contenders a wolf? Bear in mind, at this point, Augen's the second ~known wolf to vote at that point. Seems odd that he'd bump CAD up rather than push one of the existing wagons or bump up an Omega or 7Z7, and I don't consider Augie as much of a back-stabber as, say, CAD.

Dunno, I personally don't feel that one, but I also didn't feel San.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 14:00:59

DastardlyOldMan wrote:There are already 5 2-person bandwagons going on, one of which contains a wolf (two in the ~edge case that MEM is not human). Would Augie vote to make two out of the six contenders a wolf? Bear in mind, at this point, Augen's the second ~known wolf to vote at that point. Seems odd that he'd bump CAD up rather than push one of the existing wagons or bump up an Omega or 7Z7, and I don't consider Augie as much of a back-stabber as, say, CAD.

Dunno, I personally don't feel that one, but I also didn't feel San.

3 votes later, CAD casts the 3rd vote on Nitestorm. He's the first player to cast a 3rd vote. This vote makes a ton more sense if he's already at 2 votes - call it an early defensive vote - and they needed a wolf to make a 3rd vote at some point to give Stigmata a chance of dropping out of contention. Which, for awhile, is exactly what happened.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Visigoth » 11 Feb 2014, 14:20:03

Not sure I'm totally seeing the Aldax angle. I can see it kinda with yesterday's vote that it would certainly make sense for one of them to vote on him simply because it would be a free 4 votes. Now when San voted there was only one other vote out there and didn't post again. So I could certainly see him not voting on Aldax that early on since that would certainly seem very suspicious. With Augenvonsauron there is certainly the argument to be made about why he didn't vote on Aldax. At the time of his vote he was tied with San at 5 so voting on Aldax would have made it a three-way tie. I can also see the why he voted on San at the time instead of Aldax. If he wanted to survive would placing a vote on the person with the penalty votes make him look more or less wolfy? I'd say more. Plus who here would even think about following him and voting on Aldax instead of either San or Augenvonsauron. I'm guessing not many. So him voting on San did make some sense in that if anyone could possibly get some votes it would more likely be San instead of Aldax. With the earlier Day 3 votes on him it also didn't make much sense since when stigmata put his vote on Aldax it put him two above anyone else. If Aldax is a wolf it sure seemed like San and stigmata were actively trying to get him lynched even before either stigmata or Iron Clad Burrito were in too much danger. Looking at Aldax's votes is thin. One vote on Admetus (Day 1) and two votes on San (Day 3 and 6) so not much to go on. I wouldn't call him confirmed, soft-comfirmed or anything, but I'd put him on the human side of neutral.

Looking at the Day 1 votes on Nitestorm it sure feels like either Clearasday, FurinMirado, or myself has to be a wolf. I think it would be rather rare that one of the leading candidates wouldn't have attracted at least one wolf so there has to be one there. If it is FurinMirado is does make the Day 2 vote on dferrantino very interesting in that 4/6 of the wolves are on him. Perhaps this was the plan since it would really be a stretch to believe the wolves would do something like that, but that's also the same idea Ozymandias used that game when they nearly all voted on thrillhouse. If we go with the idea that they are not quite that crazy then it would seem like Clearasday is the only option. Yes, yes, I'm on that list as well and since we have a buffer you are all more than welcome to lynch me today but it will just show that I'm a Villager and my I don't think my death would fill in too many blanks in the voting record. Might help with that Day 1 vote, but you'd be left with the same two choices again. I guess it might help on Day 4 since that would just leave FurinMirado as the unknown on San which might make him more human though we've certainly seen a lot of wolf-on-wolf action so don't might still leave him an unknown.

Seeing DastardlyOldMan's post while writing this I can see what he's saying. Though that means that no wolves (assuming FurinMirado is a Villager as well) were on Nitestorm on Day 1. Not a completely rare thing to happen, but still pretty amazing.

Pretty much at a loss about Meta4. If he's a wolf this certainly seems like a new strategy of making pretty much 100% random and pointless votes each day in order to make people discount and ignore you. If he's a human, well, I can't even begin to explain the votes. He said yesterday that he's been busy which might explain the votes, but then continues voting today in what can only be considered random.

I still kind of like either necklessone or Hellheart as well. With Hellheart he's thrown some posts defending both Iron Clad Burrito and San a bit.

Of course the surprise M. Night Shamalamadingdong twist will be that Mister E. Meat will end up being the last wolf.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 14:36:36

Holy crap. DOM, you didn't play in the last game, right? Oh man, are you in for a treat. You don't realize how important Day 1's voting was in the context of what happened in the Draker game.

It just occurred to me, since we're talking about CAD's vote there, how many parallels there are. It made me chuckle, and I still have the heatmaps from that game on my Docs account.

Let me see how well I can illustrate how similar the Day 2 voting in the Draker game is to the Day 1 voting in this game.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Omega » 11 Feb 2014, 14:40:19

Visigoth, you bring up an interesting point in your final sentence, why is MEM confirmed?

Did Ozy Seer him?

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby necklessone » 11 Feb 2014, 14:46:01

He's not confirmed. ICB tried to snipe him day 1, which seems extreme for wolf on wolf action. But he's not clear.

Also, to answer your earlier question: no, not a wolf.

Home from work, will go through the day and work on my reads after I find dinner.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Visigoth » 11 Feb 2014, 14:47:04

Omega wrote:Visigoth, you bring up an interesting point in your final sentence, why is MEM confirmed?

Did Ozy Seer him?

Basically people are using Iron Clad Burrito's late vote on Day 1 to put Mister E. Meat ahead of Nitestorm as the reason that he's likely a Villager. Probably a good reason, but of course the wolves have been voting on each other a bit this game.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 11 Feb 2014, 14:48:02

Omega wrote:Visigoth, you bring up an interesting point in your final sentence, why is MEM confirmed?

Did Ozy Seer him?

Not confirmed, as I've been saying in each of my reads whenever he is brought up he is labeled as assumed-human MEM; mostly because of the D1 near kill on him. Hellheart's been pushing convinced human more than anyone else....

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Rictus » 11 Feb 2014, 14:53:34

Omega wrote:Visigoth, you bring up an interesting point in your final sentence, why is MEM confirmed?

Did Ozy Seer him?

Nope. He's the 4th bandwagon from Day 1. The votes were building like this with 2 hours to go:
LYNCH
Mister E. Meat : 4 : DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino
Nitestorm : 4 : Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, Ravebomb
stigmata : 4 : Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias
Admetus : 3 : rekard, Iron Clad Burrito, Rictus
Ozymandias : 3 : Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday : 2 : 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron
Omega : 2 : Mister E. Meat, Admetus
BlindSniper83 : 1 : San
RaveBomb : 1 : Meta4
Simple_Simon : 1 : BlindSniper83


Aldax came in for the next vote, pushed Admetus to 4. It sat that way until 3 minutes to go. ICB teases with a 'hmm...what should I do?" and then snipes MEM for the kill.

The only reason MEM is still alive is that Ozy came in for the next snipe for Nite and then the coin flip went to Nitestorm (no sheriff).
Charming, to the last.
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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 14:56:14

Okay, this is the heatmap from Day 2.

Day 2 was the first Kingmaker day - you vote for a King, and you vote for an Accused. On the next day, the King chose somebody to die from the top 3 Accused and the wolves maul one of the remaining two. Anyone in the top 3 of the Accused can't be king and is removed from the King vote. The King heatmap is on the left, and the lynch heatmap is on the right.


In the Draker game, CAD - yeah, that CAD right there - he looked like a shoe-in for King and instead ended up getting a bunch of lynch votes and dying. CAD was campaigning hard to win the King vote.

In this game, Nitestorm - yeah, that decaying body that Ozy put on a pike at the gates - he looked like a shoe-in for Sheriff and instead ended up getting a bunch of lynch votes and dying. Nitestorm was campaigning hard to win the Sheriff vote.


In the Draker game, wolf-Zark gets two votes fairly early in the day. After he reaches two votes, 3 consecutive wolves put the 3rd vote on another player. This is what ended up killing Zark in the end - that's not a coincidence, that's a strategy.

In this game, wolf-Stigmata gets two votes fairly early in the day. After he reaches two votes, 3 players put the 3rd vote on another player before Stigmata reaches 3 (CAD, Neckless, and Stigmata). That is also a strategy.


Do you see the parallels? Now I think this is obvious enough that Necklessone is probably not a wolf here, but if the 1st player to cast the 3rd vote on a human here is a wolf, he needs plausible deniability. What better fallback then to have a wolf cast the 2nd vote on you?

One thing WAS NOT similar between the two games - CAD pushed himself hard for King, but he didn't even cast a Sheriff vote for himself.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 15:05:11

I haven't pushed MEM as confirmed human, outside of coloring him blue before Zark pointed out we should be another color.

I've been pushing him as almost-certain human. Explain to me how he can be a wolf here, and don't give me that bullshit "wolves have cast votes on each other this game." Yes they have, but they haven't cast votes that are going to kill a wolf that nobody else knows about.

EDIT: ANOTHER parallel:


In the Draker game, MEM is voted into the Accused late by a wolf. He was my strongest human lean as a result.

In this game, MEM is voted into the solo lead late by a wolf. He is my strongest human lean as a result.


...Okay, that's creepy, but there's no way the wolf plan was "hey, I think Hellheart's going to notice this and decide that this is some master plan to make MEM look human even though he had to win a coinflip to survive from an Ozy vote we didn't know what coming."

That would be fun though.

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Ryvvn » 11 Feb 2014, 15:25:04

This is where I throw a small sum on MEM and Hellheart being final two wolves, lose game for not following through on votes, but collect the high odds payout!

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 15:27:17

Ryvvn wrote:This is where I throw a small sum on MEM and Hellheart being final two wolves, lose game for not following through on votes, but collect the high odds payout!

Hey, if we don't find the last two wolves shortly I'm going to get lynched if I'm not mauled first. If this is bizarro world and I'm a wolf, would you care to guess whether the only guy I've hard-defended the entire game is going to be the other wolf?

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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Rictus » 11 Feb 2014, 15:39:48

Ok, you want sinister, here's sinister:

With minutes to go the Day 1 lynch vote looks like this:

Mister E. Meat : 4 : DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino
Nitestorm : 4 : Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, Ravebomb
stigmata : 4 : Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias
Admetus : 4 : rekard, Iron Clad Burrito, Rictus
Ozymandias : 3 : Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday : 2 : 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron
Omega : 2 : Mister E. Meat, Admetus
BlindSniper83 : 1 : San
RaveBomb : 1 : Meta4
Simple_Simon : 1 : BlindSniper83

Meanwhile, over in the wolf forum:

Somebody realizes "Holy crap, we don't have a conditional maul in for tonight! If admetus goes down to the lynch, we won't get a maul! Quick we need to move off him. ICB says he'll do it but can't move ONTO Nitestorm. It goes against his code and Nitestorm is a wildcard that could be useful. That means his only choice is between two wolves... MEM and stigmata. MEM steps up and says "lynch me, it will get you massive human cred".

Dun Dun Dun DUN!!!

Now the rest of the game MEM has been cruising on human cred:
Day 1: vote for Omega
Day 2: early vote for stigmata, follows Ozy.
Day 3: Laser like focus for stigmata again. This time resting comfortably behind AVS and ICB . No one would ever suspect 3 wolves in a row.
Day 4: After getting so much heat in the wolf forum ("Dammit MEM stop it!") he takes a day off.
Day 5: Despite implicating San in his post ("I probably would have voted for San in the end for that random vote against Ozy."), he casts a vote for twdog.
Day 6: Now that twdog is dead, he stays consistent and goes back to San.

So there's my case for why Mister E. Meat is a wolf.

(I was a bit light hearted, but really that's my best explanation of MEM being a wolf. So in my book, he's somewhere around 9th most likely wolf).
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Re: Day 07: The Tightening Noose

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 15:52:39

Rictus wrote:(I was a bit light hearted, but really that's my best explanation of MEM being a wolf. So in my book, he's somewhere around 9th most likely wolf).

A lack of a conditional maul is fixed simply by ICB casting a conditional maul vote in the wolf thread. Unless everybody set up their conditionals to Nitestorm -> Admetus, I suppose. That would also be funny.

EDIT: It would be funny in that conditional maul would work, but it could kill off both humans in the tie, which leaves it as a tossup to see if we can lynch the wolf that was left over. And it ends up being a tossup with a 2-headed coin since both would be wolves.

There's an explanation that's slightly less farfetched but still absurd:

It occured to me that it was possible - extremely farfetched, but indeed possible - that it was 2 humans and 2 wolves in that tie and ICB votes to kill MEM...and I mean outright kill him. That makes Stigmata look human and ICB look human, although a wolf dies guaranteed instead of rolling the dice.

My problem with the above is twofold:
1) Stigmata isn't going to get eternal human cred for this because hey, there could be two wolves in the tie instead of just one.
2) The same thing happens if ICB doesn't cast his vote and MEM just gets unlucky - ICB just gets no cred, but I assure you that if people are floating around the possibility that MEM is a wolf, they'd be doing the same thing to ICB right now.

The only reason I still consider it possible at all is that I don't think Necklessone is a wolf, and if he isn't a wolf then there's no wolf votes on MEM until ICB casts his. However, I think the reason that ICB casts this vote is that he had a plausible excuse and there were no wolves on MEM and at least 1 wolf on Nitestorm. If there were no wolves on Nitestorm but at least 1 wolf on MEM, then a different wolf casts that vote on Nitestorm.


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