Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

The centerpiece of our idyllic community. Just ignore the reddish-brown stains on the pavement...
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Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby sphenodont » 11 Feb 2014, 19:19:09

For all the drama, today's decision was plain to see. The villagers didn't even bother with the Voting Bucket, and instead just waggled fingers at each other accusingly until the clock struck nine. Clearasday didn't even bother to show up for his execution, and just left a note that he was off to seek thrills in the next village, committing heinous and kinky acts with the native Kre-o tribesmen who lived there.

[+] Day 07 Voting History
Clearasday gets 2 penalty votes
FurinMirado votes for Clearasday
Mister E. Meat votes for Aldax
Meta4 votes for Hellheart
Ryvvn votes for Clearasday (retracted)
Hellheart votes for Clearasday
necklessone votes for Ryvvn
Blindsniper83 votes for Hellheart
Visigoth votes for Hellheart
Rictus votes for Ryvvn
DastardlyOldMan votes for Aldax (retracted)
Ryvvn votes for necklessone
Omega votes for necklessone
Aldax votes for Clearasday
DastardlyOldMan votes for Clearasday


Voting Totals
Clearasday - 7 - Penalty vote x2, FurinMirado, Ryvvn (retracted), Hellheart, Aldax, DastardlyOldMan x2
Hellheart - 3 - Meta4, Blindsniper83, Visigoth
Ryvvn - 2 - necklessone, Rictus
necklessone - 2 - Ryvvn, Omega
Aldax - 1 - Mister E. Meat, DastardlyOldMan (retracted)
Yet to Vote: Clearasday,

Clearasday - lynched - villager

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby sphenodont » 11 Feb 2014, 19:19:17

DastardlyOldMan retired to his office after the vote and carefully put the Sombrero of Destiny on the top shelf after dusting it off. He wrote a simple note to name his successor and then a longer one lamenting his unrequited love for Mortus, who had long ago left him stranded in this town. He then pulled his typewriter out from his bottom desk drawer and finished The Greatest American Novel.

Alas, no one would ever get to read it, because it was stained when the remaining packmembers of Werewolves Local #666 paid him a midnight call. They appreciated that he had made cheese daiquiris for them; they were a nice digestif after such a complex and well-aged meal.

DastardlyOldMan - mauled - villager

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby sphenodont » 11 Feb 2014, 19:19:31

The next morning, the villagers read DOM's note:

DastardlyDeadman wrote:Furin gets the hat.



GM Note: Please, please, please do not use bold in your posts unless you are making a vote. If you need to emphasize something, take a look at the italics or underline options.
Also, editing is for retracting votes or making addenda. In very rare cases, you may use it to strike something said in the heat of the moment which would only hurt yourself, other players, or the general good nature of this community. Do not edit out the substance of your posts. If you change your mind, post a new one and say so.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 11 Feb 2014, 19:20:41

Well that was so telling. My goodness. It is all so clear to me now. [/sarcasm]

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 11 Feb 2014, 19:25:40

Oh snap!

Well before I get mauled, let's lynch retracted - was Visigoth!
Last edited by FurinMirado on 12 Feb 2014, 11:19:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 19:26:29

If he had showed up and talked or casted a vote I wouldn't have been so locked-in on him.

He said he was going to think before he would vote, he got wagoned, and he never casted one. What else am I supposed to think?

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 11 Feb 2014, 19:30:17

Sorry, Sheriff Furin, my hat may not be as grand as yours, but for the moment it still tilts toward Necklessone.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 19:36:02

Omega wrote:Well that was so telling. My goodness. It is all so clear to me now. [/sarcasm]

I disagree. If he's not a wolf, there's nothing keeping the wolves from voting for him on Day 1 Sheriff. And it turns a Sheriff voter on Furin blue as well. He's also on a number of off-wagons or smaller wagons that would be good places for a wolf to hide.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 19:38:44

sphenodont wrote:The next morning, the villagers read DOM's note:

DastardlyDeadman wrote:Furin gets the hat.



GM Note: Please, please, please do not use bold in your posts unless you are making a vote. If you need to emphasize something, take a look at the italics or underline options.
Also, editing is for retracting votes or making addenda. In very rare cases, you may use it to strike something said in the heat of the moment which would only hurt yourself, other players, or the general good nature of this community. Do not edit out the substance of your posts. If you change your mind, post a new one and say so.

Was this because I voted for you yesterday?

...Actually my edits pretty much exclusively add things. Is that okay?

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 11 Feb 2014, 19:40:37

I forgot my thumb drive with my workbook at work again, so, I won't have much to contribute until tomorrow.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby sphenodont » 11 Feb 2014, 19:42:28

It's not just you, HH, but I will say that trying to tally up votes is made trickier when there is a lot of extraneous bolding, and a lot of the bolding comes from edits. I think historically, the games have flowed better when edits are kept extremely limited, since a lot of people don't go back and re-read people's posts in-depth. If you have something new to say or add, in general, it's best to put it in a new post.

Again, it's not intended to be calling out anyone specific (though I can see how it might seem that way).

Carry on. Please continue to kill humans. :)

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 19:43:28

sphenodont wrote:It's not just you, HH, but I will say that trying to tally up votes is made trickier when there is a lot of extraneous bolding, and a lot of the bolding comes from edits. I think historically, the games have flowed better when edits are kept extremely limited, since a lot of people don't go back and re-read people's posts in-depth. If you have something new to say or add, in general, it's best to put it in a new post.

Again, it's not intended to be calling out anyone specific (though I can see how it might seem that way).

Carry on. Please continue to kill humans. :)

REDACTED was Omega
Last edited by Hellheart on 12 Feb 2014, 04:33:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 11 Feb 2014, 19:46:11

Omega wrote:I forgot my thumb drive with my workbook at work again, so, I won't have much to contribute until tomorrow.

You might contribute that helpful vote again ;)

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 20:02:01

Dropped Aldax out of green, MEM's still in green. If he's a wolf and the wolf plan to sacrifice him backfired, I almost want him to win solo because it's like a big middle finger to the rest of the wolves.

[+] Day 0
Day 0 Sheriff wrote:No Sheriff - 9 - Admetus, FurinMirado, necklessone, Ozymandias, Rictus (retracted), Smirker, Hellheart, Stigmata, 7-zark-7, Simple_simon
Nitestorm - 3 - Nitestorm, Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
dferrantino - 3 - dferrantino, Rictus, Ryvvn
simple_simon - 2 - Visigoth, rekard
rekard - 1 - Clearasday, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ravebomb- 1 - Blindsniper83
Admetus - 0 - Ozymandias (retracted)

Did Not Vote - 8 - Aldax, Augenvonsauron, Meta4, Mister E. Meat, Omega, Ravebomb, San, twdog

[+] Day 1
Day 1 wrote:Sheriff Vote:
Nitestorm- 9 - Nitestorm, 7-zark-7, Iron Clad Burrito, Augenvonsauron, Smirker, RaveBomb, stigmata, dferrantino, Rictus
Clearasday - 8 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, Ozymandias (retracted), necklessone, rekard, Ozymandias, FurinMirado, Admetus, Aldax
FurinMirado - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Clearasday, Mister E. Meat, Ozymandias (retracted)
Ozymandias - 2 - Visigoth, Simple_Simon
Admetus - 2 - Hellheart, Ozymandias (retracted), Ryvvn, Admetus (retracted)
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83
RaveBomb - 1 - twdog
No Sheriff - 1 - Mister E. Meat (retracted), Ozymandias (retracted), Meta4
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)
Visigoth - 0 - rekard (retracted)
Smirker - 0 - Smirker (retracted)

Did Not Vote – 1 - San

Lynch Vote:

Nitestorm - 5 - Visigoth, FurinMirado, Clearasday, RaveBomb, Ozymandias
Mister E. Meat - 5 - DastardlyOldMan, Omega, necklessone, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito
Stigmata - 3 - Hellheart, Smirker, Ryvvn, Ozymandias (retracted)
Admetus - 3 - rekard, Iron Clad Burrito (retracted), Rictus, Aldax
Ozymandias - 3 - Nitestorm, Simple_Simon, stigmata
Clearasday - 2 - 7-zark-7, Augenvonsauron
Omega - 2 - Mister E. Meat, Admetus
Simple_Simon - 1 - Blindsniper83, Ozymandias (retracted)
Blindsniper83 - 1 - San
RaveBomb - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart- 1 - twdog
dferrantino - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)
7-zark-7 - 0 - RaveBomb (retracted)

[+] Day 2
Day 2 wrote:stigmata - 7 - Ozymandias (retracted), Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, necklessone, Iron Clad Burrito, 7-Zark-7, Rictus, dferrantino
dferrantino - 7 - San, Augenvonsauron, FurinMirado, stigmata, twdog, Ozymandias x 2
San - 3 - Simple_Simon, dferrantino, Ozymandias (retracted), Omega
Ozymandias - 1 - Smirker (retracted), Meta4
Iron Clad Burrito - 2 - rekard, Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
rekard - 1 - Blindsniper83
FurinMirado - 1 - Visigoth
Ryvvn - 1 - Clearasday
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Smirker

No vote: Aldax, RaveBomb

[+] Day 3
Day 3 wrote:stigmata - 8 - FurinMirado, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Augenvonsauron, Iron Clad Burrito, Mister E. Meat, Smirker, Omega (retracted), Ryvvn
Iron Clad Burrito - 5 - Ozymandias x2 (retracted), Clearasday, necklessone, BlindSniper83, Rictus, Omega
Aldax - 5 - Penalty Vote x2, San, stigmata, twdog
Ryvvn - 1 - DastardlyOldMan
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
San - 1 - Aldax
Hellheart- 1 - Visigoth
twdog - 0 - Ryvvn (retracted)

[+] Day 4
Day 4 wrote:Iron Clad Burrito - 4 - necklessone, Ozymandias x 2, Omega
Meta4 - 3 - Blindsniper83, Smirker, Rictus
San - 3 - Ozymandias x 2 (retracted), FurinMirado, Augenvonsauron, Visigoth
Augenvonsauron - 2 - 7-zark-7, Clearasday
Omega - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Iron Clad Burrito
Rictus - 2 - Ryvvn, Meta4
Ozymandias - 1 - San
twdog - 1 - Ozymandias x 2 (retracted), Hellheart

Still to Vote - 4 - Aldax, Mister E. Meat, Omega, twdog

[+] Day 5
Day 5 wrote:twdog - 9 - Penalty x 2, Rictus, Mister E. Meat, necklessone, Hellheart, FurinMirado, DastardlyOldMan x2
FurinMirado - 4 - San, DastardlyOldMan x2 (retracted), Blindsniper83
Aldax - 2 - Penalty x2
Mister E. Meat - 2 - Penalty x 2
San - 2 - FurinMirado (retracted), Visigoth, Omega
Augenvonsauron - 1 - 7-zark-7
Necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Meta4 - 1 - Clearasday
DastardlyOldMan - 1 - Meta4
Hellheart- 1 - twdog
Visigoth - 0 - FurinMirado (retracted)

Still to Vote – Aldax, Augenvonsauron

[+] Day 6
Augenvonsauron - 7 - Rictus, DastardlyOldMan x2, 7-zark-7, Hellheart, Necklessone (retracted), Necklessone, Omega
San - 4 - Mister E. Meat, Aldax, Visigoth, Omega (retracted), Augenvonsauron
Aldax - 4 - Penalty Votes x4
necklessone - 1 - Ryvvn
Omega - 1 - San
Visigoth - 1 - FurinMirado
Mister E. Meat - 1 - Meta4

[+] Day 7
Clearasday - 7 - Penalty vote x2, FurinMirado, Ryvvn (retracted), Hellheart, Aldax, DastardlyOldMan x2
Hellheart - 3 - Meta4, Blindsniper83, Visigoth
Ryvvn - 2 - necklessone, Rictus
necklessone - 2 - Ryvvn, Omega
Aldax - 1 - Mister E. Meat, DastardlyOldMan x 2 (retracted)
Yet to Vote: Clearasday

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 11 Feb 2014, 20:08:42

I need to walk around a bit and cool down and then I'll focus solely on finding humans.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Visigoth » 11 Feb 2014, 20:09:37

Well, shall we make this a quick one today and just go for me? There's still buffer so I'd rather bow out now instead of continuing to hang around giving the wolves someone to point fingers at and cover.

Since DastardlyOldMan seems to trust FurinMidaro I'll take him off of my list. As such I'd say my top two would be necklessone and Hellheart. They are on a lot of votes together so could be an either or situation.

Next might be Meta4. Just so hard to get a read on him with the random votes. An intentional strategy or simply letting random.org take the reigns.

My long shot surprise Cinderella pick would be Mister E. Meat.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 11 Feb 2014, 20:21:24

I'm open to suggestions on where my vote should be. I just couldn't resist voting for Visigoth again.

Facts:
1. We can afford to lynch 3 more Humans. Then we have to lynch a Wolf. Still a good lead.
2. We're down to 11 players. We can break them down as follows:
Confirmed (2):
Blindsniper83 (by Seer)
Omega (by lack of counter-claim, plus San's death)

Not Confirmed (9):
Aldax
FurinMirado
Hellheart
Mister E. Meat
Meta4
necklessone
Rictus
Ryvvn
Visigoth

I'll have to sleep on this and maybe do some more detailed review tomorrow.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 11 Feb 2014, 20:40:07

Given what we know, I would like to make this addendum:

Nearly Confirmed:
Mister E. Meat (ICB's vote snipe, did not defend self on Day 1, early voter on stigmata)
FurinMIrado (4 Wolves on dferr is a stretch, suggested San for Seering)

Not Confirmed (7):
Aldax
Hellheart
Meta4
necklessone
Rictus
Ryvvn
Visigoth

And now sleep. For real.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 04:32:26

To prove he can't possibly out-waffle me, RETRACTED PleaseDon'tShootMe Necklessone.

(( That is a serious vote. It just didn't make sense when I thought CAD was a wolf because it looks like none of the wolves voted for a wolf in either Sheriff vote. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 12 Feb 2014, 15:51:10, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 05:34:16

Hellheart wrote:To prove he can't possibly out-waffle me, Necklessone.

(( That is a serious vote. It just didn't make sense when I thought CAD was a wolf because it looks like none of the wolves voted for a wolf in either Sheriff vote. ))

If Visigoth is Human then necklessone starts to look more suspicious. I keep going back to Day 1. It seems more likely than not that there was 1 Wolf on the Nitestorm bandwagon. But now I'm starting to wonder if they were just going to let us lynch Nitestorm all by ourselves while pushing a second Human. That would mean Mister E. Meat looks more Human and necklessone could be a second Wolf on that bandwagon.

I need to look at each person's vote timing and see where that gets me. So far all other roads lead to Visigoth and Meta4.

If you look at who voted with a known Wolf you get some interesting results. The Top 3 people that ended up voting on a bandwagon with 1+ Wolves: Visigoth, FurinMirado, Mister E. Meat. That last one was a surprise. I'm not sure if that means MEM is suspicious or that method of analysis is just faulty.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Rictus » 12 Feb 2014, 07:12:00

FurinMirado wrote:I'm open to suggestions on where my vote should be. I just couldn't resist voting for Visigoth again.

Facts:
1. We can afford to lynch 3 more Humans. Then we have to lynch a Wolf. Still a good lead.
2. We're down to 11 players. We can break them down as follows:
Confirmed (2):
Blindsniper83 (by Seer)
Omega (by lack of counter-claim, plus San's death)

Not Confirmed (9):
Aldax
FurinMirado
Hellheart
Mister E. Meat
Meta4
necklessone
Rictus
Ryvvn
Visigoth

I'll have to sleep on this and maybe do some more detailed review tomorrow.


Technically, Blindsniper was cleared by claiming cupid; no one has counter-claimed. He was not seered.
-------------------------------------------

I also am a bit bothered by you claiming yourself as 'nearly confirmed'. It's a marked change from earlier when you were pointing out your awful record. I realize things change as more info is available, etc etc. But it sets a bad precendence. Necklessone, myself, and Hellheart have all said "I'm Human" in our analysis.

Now with all that being said... in my mind, you asking San to be seered is very human. And it's something outside of the normal stuff we use for evidence (votes, etc).
Charming, to the last.
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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Visigoth » 12 Feb 2014, 07:39:26

Just some other notes about why I suspect Hellheart.

On Day 4 he spent a couple of posts that read to me as trying to help San shed some suspicion about his vote on Aldax. Not to mention when he voted on twdog (which couldn't possibly be a wolf since stigmata was a wolf and wolves don't vote next to each other) it helped put him into a three-way tie with San and Meta4. In the same post he says that the San bandwagon is "dirty", whatever that means, as well as suggesting that Ozymandias not Seer me and instead calling for the Witch to poison me. Can't help but take that a little personal. Also looking back I'm wondering about Meta4 more now as well. It's possible that if Hellheart is a wolf Meta4 could be the other which is why he avoided both San and Meta4 on Day 4.

Day 5 there was again a little bit of backing San's "logic" with his vote and posts. Not as much this day since the twdog wagon got going pretty quick which was just fine for the wolves.

Day 6 he again brings out the wolf rules as a way to imply that San couldn't be a wolf. He uses the same thing to say that Augenvonsauron can't be a wolf. I mean it's right there in his logic puzzle rules. And again he makes a post not quite defending San, but pretty much saying there are better targets and that San might be on to something with the voting pattern. He even prefaces it by saying he can't defend San but then goes on to do so.

Some his posts are also just reading wolfy to me. His post yesterday congratulating Omega on getting San just felt off to me. As well as talking about how he would have eventually gotten San, sure, would that be before or after the game was over? He also, in my mind, partly discounted those that had voted on San as it was due to just being "Policy-Lynch San Time" which again for some reason is not in my handbook. There was also the late post about hoping he's not wrong about Clearasday that feels off to me. Not sure why but kind of feels like a pre-deniability post or something.

Maybe I'm wrong. It's certainly possible since it's not like I have perfect information about anyone other than the confirmed Villagers. But sure seems odd to me for a Villager to have spent more than a couple posts defending/clearing people that have turned out to be wolves.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Meta4 » 12 Feb 2014, 09:07:55

It's time to double down on Hellheart.
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 09:33:04

Visigoth wrote:Just some other notes about why I suspect Hellheart.
which couldn't possibly be a wolf since stigmata was a wolf and wolves don't vote next to each other


Can we talk about this fiction for a second here. I can see three cases of confirmed wolves voting next to each other this game, and a fourth if necklessone turns out to be a wolf.

Or are we saying that they don't vote temporaly next to teach other. regardless of target?

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 09:40:33

Omega wrote:
Visigoth wrote:Just some other notes about why I suspect Hellheart.
which couldn't possibly be a wolf since stigmata was a wolf and wolves don't vote next to each other


Can we talk about this fiction for a second here. I can see three cases of confirmed wolves voting next to each other this game, and a fourth if necklessone turns out to be a wolf.

Or are we saying that they don't vote temporaly next to teach other. regardless of target?

I read Visi's comment as sarcasm.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 09:49:38

I just want to make sure we're all on the same page on this given that a number of people seemed to operating under that (mistaken, IMO) opinion.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 10:20:54

Omega wrote:I just want to make sure we're all on the same page on this given that a number of people seemed to operating under that (mistaken, IMO) opinion.

Correct. We can't assume they were spread anymore, which is partially why I'm pulling away from Visigoth. I need to look closer at the timing of votes and who benefits.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Visigoth » 12 Feb 2014, 10:24:04

Ryvvn wrote:
Omega wrote:
Visigoth wrote:Just some other notes about why I suspect Hellheart.
which couldn't possibly be a wolf since stigmata was a wolf and wolves don't vote next to each other


Can we talk about this fiction for a second here. I can see three cases of confirmed wolves voting next to each other this game, and a fourth if necklessone turns out to be a wolf.

Or are we saying that they don't vote temporaly next to teach other. regardless of target?

I read Visi's comment as sarcasm.
This. It was sarcasm since Hellheart was using that as a reasoning in his logic puzzle on Day 6 as well as making some references to wolves not voting next to wolves on previous days. Yet by his own rules it should have excluded twdog but he had no issues voting for him. And yet still by that same logic neither San nor Augenvonsauron could have been wolves yet that is exactly what they turned out to be. A simple mistake in thinking or trying to provide cover for other wolves?

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Mister E. Meat » 12 Feb 2014, 10:27:52

I don't even understand that assumption. If I recall correctly there was a game here where the wolves went all out on day one and totally bandwagoned somebody by all voting for him. That's why I don't like when people say, "Oh a wolf would never do X." Even now when it works to my advantage to clear me, assuming that ICB wouldn't ever snipe me is at best an aid to prove that I'm human and shouldn't be taken as complete proof. That said, I think my voting record speaks for itself - I was an earlier voter on stigmata mostly because that weird, whiny post just screamed wolf for me. I pushed San a bunch (even if I made the wrong call between him an twdog when it came to vote). I fully admit that I was blindsided by Augie though.

Maybe I've missed something with necklessone - can someone lay out the case for him? It's not that I'm averse to voting for him, he's just not my top choice. Honestly, I think that both Visigoth and Meta4 seem to be more likely candidates. I am liking the "new" Visigoth though. These posts are at least helpful unlike his earlier ones.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Mister E. Meat » 12 Feb 2014, 10:47:37

OK, I just caught up on the mini-shenanigans with last night. Sorry I missed it all as I ended up getting home late and then having to help my son with his math homework. Then before I noticed it, it was 11 PM.

So I'm also still torn on Aldax. On the one hand, he voted last minute to remove himself from any lynch danger which also had DOM move his vote. That's a wolfy move IMO to snipe to (sort of) save yourself. On the other hand, I have more than a little sympathy to the POV that any decent wolf team would have sacrificed him earlier to build up a good voting record. And his voting record looks human-ish so ???

I always have such a hard time when I play to remove that initial gut call and look at the evidence anew. He doesn't feel human to me but the more I look at it, I don't think he's a wolf so ... I guess I'm glad the decision doesn't rest with me :mrgreen:

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 11:09:45

Here's what I show...

Hellheart (2) - Visigoth, Meta4
Necklessone (2) - Ryvvn, Hellheart
Visigoth (2) - FurinMirado (x2)

To Vote (6) - Aldax, Blindshiper83, Mister E. Meat, Necklessone, Omega, Rictus

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 11:18:38

Maybe it's time to sweep retracted - was Meta4 from the board and see if he's a Wolf or just crazy.
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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 11:46:07

((My wife has requested a dinner out tonight to relax from the rampaging snow-crazed hordes of her workplace. I'm unlikely to have a chance to catch up and vote until 2 or so hours before the deadline.))

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 12:01:54

Mister E. Meat wrote:Maybe I've missed something with necklessone - can someone lay out the case for him? It's not that I'm averse to voting for him, he's just not my top choice. Honestly, I think that both Visigoth and Meta4 seem to be more likely candidates. I am liking the "new" Visigoth though. These posts are at least helpful unlike his earlier ones.

Doing best to reply from phone while at work, so just pasting my D5 reasoning:
Subject: Day 05: Like Shooting Wolves In A Barrel! wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:Neckless
  • D1. First to push assumed-human-MEM to (3 vote) wagon territory, to match only other (3) wagon at the time of human-Nitestorm. If we are to also assume there is one other wolf on the MEM wagon, it is either Neckless or Omega.
  • D2. Mid-vote, shortly following (~30 mins) unknown-Hellheart, to hard push wolf-Stigmata as a strong (5 vote) wagon, next closest wagons sitting at 2 at the time. I'm inclined to believe one of these two might be a wolf.
  • D3. Mid-vote to tie wolf-ICB (4) with wolf-Stigmata (4); part of a chunk of votes which pushed these two up. I believe there is at least one wolf within this chunk of voters: CAD, Hellheart, AVS, Neckless, twdog. See spoiler for my chart of this chunk, including previous four votes and following four votes.
  • D4. Early vote and first vote on wolf-ICB; the day ended with Ozy's vote switching burying wolf-ICB, but the only other two voters are the once again suspected pair of Neckless and Omega.
[+] Day 3 Vote Chunk
Voted For - Number of Votes at that time - Voter (Number vote of the day @ My time stamp)

Ryvvn - 1 - DOM (5th @ 12:58)
DOM - 1 - Meta (6th @ 13:01)
San - 1 - Aldax (7th @ 15:08)
Hellheart - 1 - Visi (8th @ 17:29)
ICB - 3 - CAD (9th @ 18:11)
Aldax - 4 - Stigmata (10th @ 18:32)
Stigmata - 3 - Hellheart (11th @ 18:49)
Stigmata - 4 - AVS (12th @ 19:22)
ICB - 4 - Neckless (13th @ 19:30)
Stigmata - 5 - ICB (14th @ 20:10)
Aldax - 5 - twdog (15th @ 20:39)
Stigmata - 6 - MEM (16th @ 20:43)
twdog - 1 - Ryvvn (17th @ 20:59)
ICB - 5 - Blind (18th @ 21:04)
Stigmata - 7 - Smirker (19th @ 21:22)

This was the read I really wanted to get out there, and though I'll still try to offer my reads/thoughts on some of the other unknowns, given the consistency of Necklessone's appearances in these situations, I'm placing my vote on him barring a need for change.


Also just total gut feeling, especially given his recent tone.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Mister E. Meat » 12 Feb 2014, 12:25:43

OK, I see the Day 1 and Day 2 suspicion but doesn't this
Mid-vote to tie wolf-ICB (4) with wolf-Stigmata (4); part of a chunk of votes which pushed these two up.

and
D4. Early vote and first vote on wolf-ICB; the day ended with Ozy's vote switching burying wolf-ICB, but the only other two voters are the once again suspected pair of Neckless and Omega.

seemingly work in his favor? The wolves already had someone in deep trouble (stigmata), why push someone in minor trouble up that list on day 3? And on day 4, I'll grant that you know ICB is in trouble based on day 3 but why open the votes on him? Yes it gets you cred, but especially given ICB's tone and aggressiveness to a known human. And thanks for reminding me to re-read day 4. I had missed most of it at the time.

I think it pretty much clears Omega at this point with the late snipe for ICB, especially since he could have not made that vote. The only case in which Omega is not clear is if meta4 is also a wolf which would mean that the top 4 slots were all wolves and that ICB decided to throw his vote away on Omega instead.

As an aside, I'd love to see the comments on the wolf board on that day and on the San / Augie day. It seems like they've been locked in ties over and over again.

Honestly I'm not sold on necklessone and I think that retracted was meta4's lynch is better for us. If he is a wolf - which is somewhat supported by his votes, IIRC, it gets us closer to victory and even if he's not, it would better clarify things for us with Omega, giving us another nearly cleared human.
Last edited by Mister E. Meat on 12 Feb 2014, 12:37:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 12:28:01

Here are my thoughts on Neckless from yesterday.

Omega wrote:So as I look at my nice colorful workbook, I ask myself a different question. Now I wonder, where else would a wolf be.

Day 6 - One would think one would be on Augie [Rictus, Hellheart, Necklessone]

Day 5 - One must be on twdog [Rictus, Mister E. Meat, Necklessone, Hellheat, FurinMIrado]

Day 4 - One must have been on ICB - Did Necklessone start the ICB vote? Great way to build Human Cred. [Necklessone]

Day 3 - 2 wolves on Stigmata and Aldax, one was likely on ICB [Clearasday, Necklessone, Rictus]

Day 2 - 3 wolves on dferrantino, was there a second on stigmata? [Mister E. Meat, Hellheart, Necklessone, Rictus]

Day 1 - This one is the most jumbled for me. it is day 1 afterall so there is a huge amount of "random" votes. But I will give necklessone a -1 for this, because would there really have been 2 wolves on MEM?

Necklessone - 4
Rictus - 4
HellHeart - 3
Mister E. Meat - 2
Clearasday - 1
FurinMirado - 1

Necklessone...are you a cop? Wait, that's not right. Are you a wolf?!

Rictus, same question. (The wolf one, not the cop one...)

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Visigoth » 12 Feb 2014, 12:31:33

Mister E. Meat wrote:...The only case in which Omega is not clear is if meta4 is also a wolf which would mean that the top 4 slots were all wolves and that ICB decided to throw his vote away on Omega instead.... IIRC, it gets us closer to victory and even if he's not, it would better clarify things for us with Omega, giving us another nearly cleared human.
Omega's the Witch. Seeing as he killed San like he said he would and no one has counterclaimed he's pretty much as confirmed as we can get.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 12:34:59

If we need to lynch Meta today, that's fine; but I'll likely just be on Neckless again tomorrow until I either feel as strongly about someone else or one of the two of us dies.

Also, Omega is clear in my book by virtue of uncontested witch claim and claimed target's death.
Last edited by Ryvvn on 12 Feb 2014, 12:37:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Mister E. Meat » 12 Feb 2014, 12:35:54

Sorry to double post but I realized that the end of my argument on meta4 was just lazy. I don't have a ton of time to go through it all but going backwards from yesterday singleton vote on me (sucks but I'm not confirmed), singleton vote on DOM (confirmed human by seer at this point), voting with Ryvvn on Rictus (unknown), singleton vote on DOM again (unknown at that point), singleton vote on Ozy (unknown at that point but it was pretty clear that he was helping us at least), singleton vote on Ravebomb.

So yeah, all the singleton votes look suspicious for how much they scream wolf which makes me think probably not wolf but the votes on DOM, Ozy and dare I say me at best scream lazy human player. Given that as I said, his lynch seems to clear Omega, I don't really see a downside.

Fake edit:
And derp - I just saw Visigoth's post - speaking of lazy players. I was just looking at Ryvvn's post that said "but the only other two voters are the once again suspected pair of Neckless and Omega." and forgot about the whole poisoning San thing :oops:

As such, I think I'll pull my vote on meta4 because that vote pattern is almost too suspicious.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Mister E. Meat » 12 Feb 2014, 12:38:56

And given that, let's see if retractedwas necklessone is a furbag because I like Omega's reasoning.
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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 12:58:52

I have to log some time on the treadmill, but I may be moving to necklessone as well. I decided to see if I could build a case and things got interesting. I'm not done yet, but some highlights:

1. Ozy suspected 1 of DOM, necklessone or Omega (in order of Wolfiness) was a Wolf on MEM's Day 1 bandwagon. That's why he seer'd DOM who turned up Human. That means necklessone is now the most likely Wolf if there was one voting for MEM on Day 1. I tend to trust Ozy's analysis (once I know he's Human).

2. On Day 5, see Zark's post about the "invisible dance" where AVS, ICB and necklessone seem to place their votes with a plan in mind. Later that day necklessone calls out AVS as Wolfy but only while simultaneously calling me out. Feels like he may have been working on a case against me so he could hopefully get twdog and myself lynched before they finally settle on AVS>


Just some thoughts. Like I said, not done yet. I probably won't be back for a few hours.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 13:12:25

I think it is worthwhile to note that I did reveal to Ozy that it was I who saved him.

I believe this colored his analysis on his last day as he couldn't just write me off as a non-wolf, because he's made statements like that the day before.

Finally, if Nicky no neck turns out to be a human , I did say one of Rictus and Nick.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 13:17:18

MEM wrote:Maybe I've missed something with necklessone - can someone lay out the case for him? It's not that I'm averse to voting for him, he's just not my top choice. Honestly, I think that both Visigoth and Meta4 seem to be more likely candidates. I am liking the "new" Visigoth though. These posts are at least helpful unlike his earlier ones.

I agree with you about Visigoth. CAD is pretty much the straw that broke the camel's back here - if I drop voting analysis entirely except for fringe cases, he's contributing more than a lot of players so there's no driving reason to lynch him over Meta4 at the very least.

The more important point, however, is Necklessone. I had been getting "Visigoth" vibes from him up to when I made that big reads list, where I had that point in there a couple times before I chopped it off because the whole damn thing was too long. Ryvvn is right, his tone has lately changed in a way that I can't describe, although the content of his contributions hasn't changed much. It seems like voting position doesn't matter as much as timing in this game and even that's suspect, so if a player's tone is off then that may be the best thing to run with. Remember, as DOM said, all we really have to do is find one wolf and then not lynch the hunter - preferably by voting "no lynch" although I'd not be surprised if sphenodont prevented that.

When I'm this lost trying to find wolves statistically, I'm going to give very heavy weight when players that have a history of catching wolves through feel are agreeing on one person. That's why I followed Zark on AVS, and that's why I'm following Ryvvn and Omega on Necklessone. Omega is pretty much the deciding factor for me - sometimes a player is just on the right wavelength, and Omega definitely fits the bill after sniping San.

-------

Omega wrote:
Visigoth wrote:Just some other notes about why I suspect Hellheart.
which couldn't possibly be a wolf since stigmata was a wolf and wolves don't vote next to each other


Can we talk about this fiction for a second here. I can see three cases of confirmed wolves voting next to each other this game, and a fourth if necklessone turns out to be a wolf.

Or are we saying that they don't vote temporaly next to teach other. regardless of target?

Okay, let me clarify this. Standard wolf voting practices exist for a reason, otherwise they're random metagame artifacts that make zero sense.

Wolves normally don't vote in pairs partially because it draws suspicion, both at the time of the votes ("two wolfy players just voted for that guy, now I don't want to lynch him anymore") and for later analysis ("whenever a wolf has been in trouble, these two players pile up on a guy. I think they're wolves and anyone they've piled up on is a human"). In a more practical sense, the wolves aren't all on at the same time of day and so they'll spread out simply because they're voting at different times. The idea that a group of 4-5 wolves are all huddled at their monitors waiting for the command to cast their votes is ludicrous - wolves prefer to vote when it's convenient for them and not when it's convenient for the wolves. This also works in reverse - if a wolf votes at a time that is normally not convenient for them it can draw attention, which is a form of what happened with Zark catching AVS.


Wolves don't pile up on one player in a vaccum outside of the early couple of days because it creates "dirty" wagons, meaning that most or all of the voters on a player are neutral or wolfy. It's like a big red sign saying "hey there's probably multiple wolves on this wagon so don't lynch this guy today." Even if they do that to a wolf, it ends up calling more attention to them than spreading out will. The major exception to this comes when a wolf is in danger, but if the wolves start doing it as often they did in this game, then you can use the most braindead wolf-catching method: "okay, so this wolf was a leading bandwagon with this human. Let's lynch EVERYONE on the human's wagon and we'll catch half of the wolves right there." That also plays into a certain long-term Rictus wolf-catching method: "Hellheart and DOM have voted for the same player so many times...I actually think they might be the last two wolves."

The Sheriff Wagon on Day 1 just baffles me. If you're going to pile up on one player don't make it Nitestorm. ICB made a questionable vote and Stigmata was doing wolfy things, but we got Stigmata and ICB so early and AVS drew so much suspicion primarily because Ozy was working off of a shortlist consisting of players that voted for Nitestorm as Sheriff. People listen to Ozymandias after he's right once or twice and the wolves just made it really easy for him to be right


Voting an unknown wolf to death usually doesn't pay off in the long run. Sure I'll give a player a huge human lean for doing that, but other players aren't so generous. Killing a totally safe wolf also has its own problems: how did that player figure that whoever they voted for was a wolf? Like if ICB claims he's protecting Nitestorm and successfully kills wolf-MEM, it just doesn't sound right. Eventually it would've started to make me nervous - you don't see many players picking off wolves with random suspiciously late votes like that, Ryvvn nonwithstanding.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 14:23:31

((I'm about to leave for dinner. I'll post a longer defense later. Short version: I'm the Hunter. Please don't lynch me. ))

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Visigoth » 12 Feb 2014, 14:28:41

I have no idea what these standard wolf voting practices are, but perhaps my handbook got lost in the mail. You can try and attribute standard logical rules for how people vote and there will be times when it works. But thinking they are anywhere near hard and fast is wishful thinking. At best they are trends and like all trends shift and move. I tend, about 90% of the time, to let random.org pick my vote the first two days, but if on Day 1 I get a read on someone my Day 2 vote could be more directed. I tend vote sometime after I get home and post very little, if at all, during the day. The reason for that is that depending on my work location I may or may not have access to the boards. So if I'm offbase, as I've been recently, I can and may post during the day. But if not then you won't hear anything from me until later in the day. If you decide that I only post in the day when I'm a wolf and since I'm posting during the day I must be a wolf it would make no logical sense. Whether I can or cannot post doesn't have any bearing on which side I'm on.

Also what might be "standard" wolf behavior could be flipped on it's head the next game by the wolves since the thinking would be that no wolf would ever do such a thing. Just like your belief that wolves don't group yet they will so the only thing your self determined voting practices will do is help wolves hide in your vote analysis.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 14:29:20

necklessone wrote:((I'm about to leave for dinner. I'll post a longer defense later. Short version: I'm the Hunter. Please don't lynch me. ))

If he's lying, real Hunter do not counterclaim; if you're telling the truth Neck then do us all a dying favor and shoot Meta4!

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 15:12:51

Ryvvn wrote:
necklessone wrote:((I'm about to leave for dinner. I'll post a longer defense later. Short version: I'm the Hunter. Please don't lynch me. ))

If he's lying, real Hunter do not counterclaim; if you're telling the truth Neck then do us all a dying favor and shoot Meta4!

Okay, just got back from the gym. I decided to check on TWG before I start dinner and...wow. But I agree with Ryvvn and see it this way:

If necklessone is a Wolf:
1. We just lynched a Wolf.
2. The Wolves likely haven't figured out who the Hunter is, so he's still a threat to them. This is obviously a ploy to lure him out.

If he's the Hunter:
1. We lynched a Human, but get a free Vig shot, perhaps it will hit a Wolf.

So if the real Hunter is out there, please do not counter-claim. You're much better as a shadowy threat and we're better off lynching necklessone no matter his real allegiance.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 15:32:24

(( Ugh, if he is the Hunter I can see why I got those vibes from him then - the Hunter needs to be as human as possible in order to draw the maul.

I think lynching him right now is the wrong choice. Let's talk this through, people.

So two scenarios: Lynch him now, Don't lynch him

Lynch him now
1) If he's a wolf, then we've lynched a wolf and the real Hunter's still out there with one wolf to go. I'm getting the impression that this might be the expected outcome, which I don't agree with.
2) If he's the Hunter, then we lynch him and he shoots whomever we would have lynched in his place instead - so the guy we would've lynched instead dies anyway, but now we've lost the Hunter. Ouch.

Don't lynch him
1) If he's a wolf, Hunter should not counter-claim unless we're at 5 players with 2 wolves or we lynch the other wolf. We lynch other players looking for the remaining wolf. We should hit the other wolf or the Hunter before we hit 5 people left. If we lynch the Hunter, he shoots Necklessone. It's just like lynching him now, just more delayed. When we find the other wolf, Hunter counter-claims and we lynch either of them to win.
2) If he's the Hunter and we don't lynch him, Necklessone the Hunter gets a free ticket to the final 3 if we find one wolf.

You know what makes the final 3 REALLY hard for the wolves? Having a confirmed human in the Final 3. You know what makes things really hard for wolf-Necklessone? Knowing that once we find the other wolf, the Hunter's going to claim and we automatically win.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 15:42:19

Necklessone, if you're the hunter, sorry about lynching you. Mind hitting Rictus?

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 15:49:22

RETRACTED was Meta4. If Necklessone's a wolf, let's find the other wolf and auto-win. If he's the Hunter, let the wolves freak out and debate whether they should just maul him now and take the hit so he doesn't make the Final 3.

If Necklessone is a wolf, the only upside to lynching him before the Final 5 is that we get to color him red in the charts

If Necklessone is the Hunter, there is NO UPSIDE to lynching him. Ever.

Ryvvn's response made sense and felt VERY human. FurinMirado's response smells, he should've spent a bit of time thinking that out if he's human. Omega's confirmed human, so whatever.
Last edited by Hellheart on 12 Feb 2014, 18:19:56, edited 1 time in total.


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