Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

The centerpiece of our idyllic community. Just ignore the reddish-brown stains on the pavement...
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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 15:52:44

Quoted for top of page importance.

Hellheart wrote:Meta4. If Necklessone's a wolf, let's find the other wolf and auto-win. If he's the Hunter, let the wolves freak out and debate whether they should just maul him now and take the hit so he doesn't make the Final 3.

If Necklessone is a wolf, the only upside to lynching him before the Final 5 is that we get to color him red in the charts

If Necklessone is the Hunter, there is NO UPSIDE to lynching him. Ever.

Ryvvn's response made sense and felt VERY human. FurinMirado's response smells, he should've spent a bit of time thinking that out if he's human. Omega's confirmed human, so whatever.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 16:04:15

I want to also mention that Furin has the hat, so if he's stubborn about this but you agree with me, we need Meta4 to be at least one vote above Necklessone despite Furin's doublevote.

You can always change your vote if you change your mind, but if you're unsure please vote with me. If you decide that lynching Necklessone is the right move, change it back or do it tomorrow.

Necklessone isn't going anywhere unless you kill him now.
Last edited by Hellheart on 12 Feb 2014, 16:04:37, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Rictus » 12 Feb 2014, 16:04:36

A lot of retractions, but I think this is correct:

necklessone (4) - Ryvvn, Hellheart (retracted), Mister E. Meat, FurinMirado x2
Hellheart (2) - Visigoth, Meta4
Meta4 (1) - FurinMirado x2 (retracted), Mister E. Meat (retracted), Hellheart
Visigoth (0) - FurinMirado x2 (retracted)
Omega (0) - Hellheart (retracted)

I will vote in a separate post.
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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 16:10:19

HH, the only part I disagree with is, if we lynch Neckless today, and he's human, that points me directly to Rictus tomorrow. I'm confident that one of the two is a wolf.

If we lynch Meta4 today, and he's human, we lose him and a confirmed human (because I'm sure the wolves have 3 targets at this point, 2 of which are confirmed.) And we're back to the same place with Neckless.

I think the opposite of your logic is true, Meta4 is so out there, he'll be around tomorrow and the next day, so I'd rather leave him be tonight.

I'm not sure how to work the possibility that Neckless is the hunter into all of this though... Because that does change things.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 16:12:33

Hellheart wrote:...he should've spent a bit of time thinking that out if he's human...


Yeah, I've been too impulsive today. I just did the math. In the worst case scenario where we lynch the Hunter, he kills a Human and a Human is mauled, we end up losing at the start of Day 11 instead of Day 12. We lose a day if that happens.

I was weighing the risk vs. reward and was already heading towards necklessone's lynch anyway so I jumped on it. The best case scenario is we lynch a Wolf and then we just have to wait around for the Wolves to maul the true Hunter. That's game. It is very, very tempting to me even now.


But I promise to think about it while I run my errands tonight. I'll be back before deadline to change my vote or not. Plus I'm curious about the speech that necklessone has promised.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 16:14:45

Other thing is: if we lynch Necklessone the Hunter, the numbers are even again which favors the wolves.

You guys don't have to pick Meta4, although I think he'd be the easiest to push through. Omega, if you think you can get Rictus instead make your case for lynching him. Blindsniper/Visigoth, if you think you can get me instead push for my lynch over Necklessone.

We still have 3 hours left. It's not emergency time yet.

Before people are like "OMG they're both wolves," I'll vote myself ahead as a sacrifice if it keeps Necklessone from getting lynched today, So yeah, okay fine, we're both wolves whatever, as long as I can save Necklessone.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 16:19:05

I feel like Hellheart is acting completely out of character... don't know what to make of that, but I'm sticking to my vote.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 16:26:34

Ryvvn wrote:I feel like Hellheart is acting completely out of character... don't know what to make of that, but I'm sticking to my vote.

I wouldn't be like this if I didn't argue against Necklessone being lynched yesterday. If he's the Hunter I'm glad I did, because we'd have no time to talk this out and lynching the hunter is awful.

I've done this before - remember The Plan in the Pratchett game? I was as frantic about that as I am right now. We have a mechanical way to make it nearly impossible for the wolves to win. I LOVE using mechanics to beat the wolves.


This is simply an extension of the argument I made all the way back at Day 0: if the Hunter doesn't reveal but somebody claims Hunter after being bandwagoned, we don't lynch him. This late we shouldn't make him Sheriff, that's just ridiculous, but we still don't lynch the guy that claims Hunter. Let it resolve by itself in time.

Worst case scenario, we lynch him by default on Day 5. If he's a wolf, lynching him now isn't going to make a difference in anybody's wolf lists. Simply remove Necklessone from your wolf lists. He is a dead man on Day 5 if we don't find a wolf - we know exactly when Necklessone will die if we don't find a wolf.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby sphenodont » 12 Feb 2014, 16:31:33

Hellheart wrote:Remember, as DOM said, all we really have to do is find one wolf and then not lynch the hunter - preferably by voting "no lynch" although I'd not be surprised if sphenodont prevented that.


Didn't see this earlier. Anyone who votes "No Lynch" is welcome to do so, however, they will end the day tied for the lynch lead, and the tie choice will be taken out of the Sheriff's hand. :twisted:

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 16:32:34

My case for Rictus is nearly the same as Neckless, since they voted lock step with each other Day 2, 3, 5, 6, 7.

Though, swap the "Started the ICB vote" for "Started the Augie vote."

I'm convinced (at least) one of the two has to be a wolf.

And if we don't get the benefit of "No Lynch" then we need to re-think that.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Rictus » 12 Feb 2014, 16:36:07

Omega wrote:HH, the only part I disagree with is, if we lynch Neckless today, and he's human, that points me directly to Rictus tomorrow. I'm confident that one of the two is a wolf.

If we lynch Meta4 today, and he's human, we lose him and a confirmed human (because I'm sure the wolves have 3 targets at this point, 2 of which are confirmed.) And we're back to the same place with Neckless.

I think the opposite of your logic is true, Meta4 is so out there, he'll be around tomorrow and the next day, so I'd rather leave him be tonight.

I'm not sure how to work the possibility that Neckless is the hunter into all of this though... Because that does change things.


Make your case against me. Because If you're just hanging it on twdog's wagon, you've got FOUR unconfirmed on that bandwagon:
Rictus, Necklessone, Hellheart, FurinMirado

Here is my own case against myself, tell me if this makes sense:
[+] Rictus is a wolf, by Rictus
Day 1, voted on human-admetus. ICB was already on Admetus, but moved away at last minute. So Rictus could be a replacement wolf on that bandwagon if ICB was going to snipe.
Day 2, voted on wolf-stigmata when it was a 3 way tie between Stigmata/Dferrantino/San. This could be an attempt to save a better hidden wolf (San).
Day 3, voted for ICB. ICB and Aldax were both at 5, Stigmata was up at 8. Hard to call this a wolf move, since moving ICB within 2 votes of stigmata is dangerous. BUT, if Aldax is also a wolf, then makes sense ONLY if Rictus is going for long term human cred. But why not bandwagon wolf-stigmata and save both ICB AND Aldax?
Day 4, defends days 1-3 votes with this post:
viewtopic.php?f=55&t=413&sid=f863f9950421a2a52e0ad8ef242ea91a#p19396
Then goes on to vote for Meta4 when it’s San:3, Meta4:2, Rictus:2, Twdog:2. Takes some of the heat off of San.
Day 5, leads off early (for the first time) with a vote on twdog. Twdog ends up being lynched by a landslide.
Day 6, calls out AVS as wolf when San and Aldax were tied at 4 votes each. When AVS gets steam from confirmed humans, waffles on his statement, says San isn’t wolf. AVS is lynched.
Day 7, follows Necklessone onto Ryvvn.
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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 16:37:15

Rictus wrote:Make your case against me. Because If you're just hanging it on twdog's wagon, you've got FOUR unconfirmed on that bandwagon:
Rictus, Necklessone, Hellheart, FurinMirado


But only you and Neckless are an odd couple on so many days.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Rictus » 12 Feb 2014, 16:54:24

So what's your point?

Are we both wolves who are coordinating our movements in the wolf thread?
- If so, I'd expect at least one of us to point it out to the other... or one of the other 4 wolves. You know how paranoid they get about stuff like this.

Am I the wolf following human-necklessone?
What for? Why would a wolf follow one human all the time? Maybe I knew he was the hunter and was hoping to get him lynched? Worst plan ever, since he can just role claim and avoid lynch.

Is necklessone the wolf following human-Rictus?
Again, why would necklessone follow a human 5 times?

I guess my point is that you've found an interesting coincidence. Great. What does it mean for our human/wolf roles? Because necklessone and I have managed to lynch a bunch of wolves (stigmata, ICB,and AVS).
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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 17:11:27

But some of those places where you and neck lessons (autocorrect, but that's funny, I'll leave it) are in places where there is likely a wolf.

Is it you? Maybe. Is it Mr Lessons? Maybe. It could even be Hellheart.

But a logical conclusion is that there should be a wolf in certain places, places where you occupy.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 17:13:29

Why I'm standing on my vote (or rather, why I'm not swayed by Hellheart's argument):
Hellheart wrote:Ugh, if he is the Hunter I can see why I got those vibes from him then - the Hunter needs to be as human as possible in order to draw the maul.

In my eyes, he was not acting as human as possible, certainly did not seem to be acting in any way that would have drawn a maul in my opinion.

Also, your panicked switch to Meta seemed super weak, Hellheart; I would have expected you to make a case for someone much more worthy of lynching in the proposed Hunter's place than the one who is a zero threat element right now.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 17:21:52

IMPORTANT: If Necklessone is not the Hunter, the Hunter has to counter-claim in the Final 7 and we must try to pick the wolf. If we lynch the Hunter in the Final 5 with two wolves left, we lose via parity even if he shoots a wolf.

ALSO IMPORTANT: Following the above, if there is no counter-claim we cannot lynch Necklessone in the final 5. Don't make that mistake.

Let's run the math. 11 players now, which means that in 3 mislynches we will be in the final 5 and must-lynch.

TLDR:
  • If Necklessone is a wolf and we randomly lynch other players until a counter-claim in the Final 7, there is a 34% chance that we win or lynch the Hunter to resolve this without an intervention. In the counter-claim in the Final 7, if we lynch the wolf instead of the Hunter we're virtually guaranteed a win anyway.
  • If Necklessone is the Hunter and we randomly lynch other players, there is no counter-claim in the Final 7 and he makes the Final 3 or we win outright 80% of the time.

Scenario 1: Necklessone the hunter
For the purposes of the math in this Scenario, Necklessone is not a wolf or a lynch option so he is removed from the player pool and 2 wolves remain.

I am assuming that if Necklessone is the Hunter, he is NOT counter-claimed in the Final 7. In that case, we assume that he is the Hunter and the numbers below apply.

If we lynch a random person every day, our chances of NEVER getting a wolf by the Final 5 are (8/10 * 6/8 * 4/6) = 40%
Therefore, random lynches will get us to the Final 3 or win it for us outright 60% of the time.

Of the remaining 40% of the time we never get a wolf, we randomly lynch outside of Necklessone in the Final 5 for a (2/4) = 50% chance of getting a wolf.
So random lynches will lose us the game (0.4 * 0.5) = 20% of the time.

We make the final 3 with Confirmed Human Necklessone or win 60% of the time
We make the final 5 but manage to hit a wolf there 20% of the time.
We lose in the Final 5 via random lynches 20% of the time.

Scenario 2: Necklessone the wolf
For the purposes of the math in this Scenario, Necklessone is a wolf but is not a lynch option so he is removed from the player pool and 1 wolf remains.

Because the Hunter must counter-claim by the Final 7, the percentages are run with only 2 mislynches.

If we lynch a random person every day, our chances of not getting getting the last wolf by the Final 7 are (9/10 * 7/8) = 78%
Therefore, random lynches will win the game for us 22% of the time.

Of the remaining 72% of the time, our chances of ALSO not lynching the hunter are: (8/9 * 6/7) = 77%
Thus the chance that we randomly lynch neither the remaining wolf nor the Hunter is (0.78 * 0.77) = 60%
So we miss the wolf, but lynch the hunter who killshots Necklessone 12% of the time.

We lynch the remaining wolf and the real Hunter counterclaims for the win 22% of the time
We don't lynch the remaining wolf but instead lynch the Hunter for the killshot on Necklessone 12% of the time.
The actual Hunter has to counter-claim on Final 7 66% of the time.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 17:31:03

The above chances are LOWER than actual, because I didn't remove confirmed humans from the random lynch possibilities and I don't feel like re-running the numbers right now.

I'd estimate an additional 5-10% chance of winning if he's the Hunter and an additional 10-20% of resolving by Final 7 if he's a wolf. I can't mentally estimate how the numbers would change.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 17:33:24

Someone else read all those numbers and tell me if Hellheart's making sense :?:

...for as I said in the Pratchett game:
Subject: Day 6: Cut-Me-Own-Throat wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:
rekard wrote:Sending words I think we should still be doing, but I'm reckless like that.


I just agree with necklessone that it seems, without figuring actual numbers (I hate fiddly numbers) to be in wolves favor for us to keep spreading words around that they keep corrupting

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Rictus » 12 Feb 2014, 17:34:17

Retracted: Ryvvn.

(I gotta put the kid to bed, but I intend to be back before EOD and see necklessone's explanation. Of course, the last time i said that I fell asleep and didn't wake up until after EOD. )

my own list of mostly human to mostly wolves:

Omega
Blindsniper
Mister E. Meat

FurinMirado
Necklessone
Hellheart

Aldax
Visigoth
Ryvvn

-----
Meta4??? no clue, and almost not in the game. Nobody is going to follow him on vote, and he's been off the whole game. Plus 99% of the time it's just a vote and no discussion.
Last edited by Rictus on 12 Feb 2014, 18:45:21, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 17:39:20

Ryyvn's right in that I wasn't actively seeking a maul. I was just playing the game. If I got mauled? Bonus.

Catching up on what I missed (and switching to something with a physical keyboard).

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 17:45:53

First, just a clarification on Furin’s worst case scenario.
I just did the math. In the worst case scenario where we lynch the Hunter, he kills a Human and a Human is mauled, we end up losing at the start of Day 11 instead of Day 12. We lose a day if that happens.

I’m reluctant to say this, but that’s not quite true. If I get lynched (did I mention already that I’d prefer for that not to be the case?), you lose a day of gameplay but still got to move through the same number of suspects since I’ll be shooting someone from the unknown list. So it’s like a free lynch without the corresponding maul. In the long run it's still a negative; if I miss a wolf the game is back to an even number of players. This would give the wolves another body to hid behind if they manage to move the game to lynch or die. It's just not as bad as losing a day makes it seem.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 17:48:02

Here's the issue I have with the neck lessons Hunter claim.

Has he played like someone trying to get mauled?

Frankly, I think he's played like a quiet, trying to blend in, wolf.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 17:50:20

How does one play to get mauled? Drop seer hints when the seer went public day 2?

I'm sorry that I attempted to get enjoyment out of playing the game as long possible instead of trying to get eliminated as fast as possible for the sake of my team. Been there, done that.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 17:51:24

I'm about to go out for drinks with my brother; won't be here for EoD.

I expect Neckless to revenge vote/team up with Rictus on me again, and if Neckless still goes down and I was wrong and he happens to actually be the Hunter, then I also expect him to shoot me; so I'm going to offer a sort-of-meta reason why he shouldn't... take a look at the black border around my avatar, and those who were paying attention will have noticed the same black border around all my picture changes... I'll switch it to what my death avatar was going to be...
[+] previous avatar for after switch
Image

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Ryvvn » 12 Feb 2014, 17:55:04

See, nothing sinister, and has been hanging back there behind all the other pictures the whole game; I realize that I was using the avatar before roles were selected, but if I were a wolf I would have scrapped using that for something more interesting after reveal (actually had plans for if I were to reveal for any special role). So, this is my hope that if Neckless is actually Hunter, that he doesn't shoot me out of revenge and actually targets someone more likely to be a wolf!

...though I still believe Neckless is the wolf here.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 17:57:58

necklessone wrote:How does one play to get mauled? Drop seer hints when the seer went public day 2?

I'm sorry that I attempted to get enjoyment out of playing the game as long possible instead of trying to get eliminated as fast as possible for the sake of my team. Been there, done that.


[ooc: you're not taking this personally I hope...]

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 18:08:26

Omega wrote:
necklessone wrote:How does one play to get mauled? Drop seer hints when the seer went public day 2?

I'm sorry that I attempted to get enjoyment out of playing the game as long possible instead of trying to get eliminated as fast as possible for the sake of my team. Been there, done that.


[ooc: you're not taking this personally I hope...]


((Nope. But I'm not really interested in early game self-sacrifice as a mechanic any more. It doesn't really increase the fun of the game for anyone.))

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:10:45

The wolves want the Hunter dead now. Don't give them a free Power Role kill. This is either the Hunter or a gambit to draw the Hunter out, and we defeat both by lynching outside Necklessone until the Final 7.

Ryvvn wrote:Also, your panicked switch to Meta seemed super weak, Hellheart; I would have expected you to make a case for someone much more worthy of lynching in the proposed Hunter's place than the one who is a zero threat element right now.

I've been off with my wolf-hunting lately. I can't pick them out. I'm going to follow players who are more likely to be right. I'm not going to vote for myself because I'm not going to sacrifice unless I have to, so I'm voting on somebody neutral that we'll have to eventually lynch anyway and seeing where other players want to go. I just wanted to get everything out there so I could spend 30+ minutes running the math and checking my numbers.

  • If Necklessone is a wolf he will always die in the Final 7 via counterclaim. He can, at best, delay the inevitable.
  • If Necklessone is a wolf and we lynch the Hunter, he will always shoot a wolf instead of a Human. THINK ABOUT THIS.
  • If Necklessone is a Hunter and we lynch him now, we are killing a Confirmed Human for the wolves, and he could also end up shooting a human. That's a HUGE loss.

There is no scenario where Necklessone is a wolf and the real Hunter doesn't counter-claim at Final 7. There is no downside to waiting for the humans, and immense upside if we either lynch/bandwagon the Hunter in the meantime or hit the final wolf. There is an immense downside to waiting for the wolves.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:17:03

Meh, if you don't agree with me, vote for me so I can switch my vote and sacrifice myself to show that I'm human and you should believe my numbers.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 18:17:18

Ryvvn and Omega want me dead because they think there should be a wolf in certain places, I fit their guess, and gut instinct. All fine reasons, but not ones I can rebut.

My votes are out there for everyone to examine. Most of them are mid votes on a bandwagon; I usually skim the thread during the day when I can and actually sit down to analyze and vote once I get home. This tends to make me more reactive than proactive. ICB on Day 4 is an exception; I voted at work in case I passed out when i got home (instead I was exiled to the couch for snoring, which kept me up).

If I die, I’m probably going to shoot Meta4. I think he’s human, but he’s going to have be lynched at some point so we might as well just get it out of the way.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 18:17:40

Ughhhhhhh.

I'm waffling.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:18:43

Omega wrote:Ughhhhhhh.

I'm waffling.

Did you see Rictus' Ryvvn vote? I'll totally go that direction. If he's a wolf, then you'll be more willing to accept Necklessone, so let's try it.

RETRACTED was Rictus

(( I will add that outside of Necklessone and Meta4, Rictus was the person I was most willing to vote for.

I'm leaning much more towards Human on Furin than a few days ago, but he can fool me pretty easily. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 12 Feb 2014, 18:23:34, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Omega » 12 Feb 2014, 18:22:43

I've got to run to a work dinner and will be out the remainder of the evening.

Sorry HH, I've got to go with the case I believe in and understand.

Necklessone

May $deity have mercy on our souls.

(Also, kill Rictus!)

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:23:50

Necklessone, vote for me.

RETRACTED was Hellheart

(( This cuts something like 5-7% off the chance of this resolving by Final 7 if he's a wolf ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 12 Feb 2014, 18:55:22, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 18:24:24

Hellheart wrote:When I'm this lost trying to find wolves statistically, I'm going to give very heavy weight when players that have a history of catching wolves through feel are agreeing on one person. That's why I followed Zark on AVS, and that's why I'm following Ryvvn and Omega on Necklessone. Omega is pretty much the deciding factor for me - sometimes a player is just on the right wavelength, and Omega definitely fits the bill after sniping San.


necklessone wrote:((I'm about to leave for dinner. I'll post a longer defense later. Short version: I'm the Hunter. Please don't lynch me. ))


Ryvvn wrote:If he's lying, real Hunter do not counterclaim; if you're telling the truth Neck then do us all a dying favor and shoot Meta4!


Hellheart wrote:I think lynching him right now is the wrong choice. Let's talk this through, people.


Omega wrote:Necklessone, if you're the hunter, sorry about lynching you. Mind hitting Rictus?


Ryvvn wrote:I feel like Hellheart is acting completely out of character... don't know what to make of that, but I'm sticking to my vote.


Just under an hour to go. Sorry it took so long. The above sequence keeps buzzing through my head. I'm just not sure what to make of all this odd behavior and I'm more apt to follow a quasi-confirmed Witch Omega in this instance myself.

Hell, if I keep my vote on necklessone and he's not a Wolf, you can lynch me tomorrow. I've been rubbish all game. I'll vote for myself if Sphenodont allows it.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:25:41

FurinMirado wrote:Hell, if I keep my vote on necklessone and he's not a Wolf, you can lynch me tomorrow. I've been rubbish all game. I'll vote for myself if Sphenodont allows it.

Can't you always vote for yourself?

My numbers are strong enough that even if I sacrifice here as a human and Necklessone is a wolf, it's still in the human's favor, given how wolfy I seem at this point.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 18:28:46

Hellheart wrote:
FurinMirado wrote:Hell, if I keep my vote on necklessone and he's not a Wolf, you can lynch me tomorrow. I've been rubbish all game. I'll vote for myself if Sphenodont allows it.

Can't you always vote for yourself?

My numbers are strong enough that even if I sacrifice here as a human and Necklessone is a wolf, it's still in the human's favor, given how wolfy I seem at this point.

There have been discussions in the past. I tend to default to asking the GM on questionable items.

I'm still debating, and will no doubt be debating until EOD.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:30:26

Meh, it still won't work, he'll be 1 ahead now even if he votes for me. I will protest to EOD because it's the wrong move even if Necklessone is a wolf to lynch him right now.

If there was one wolf, we lynch him. Because there are two, lynching him resolves nothing regardless of role because the way the wolves are voting, knowing his role tells us nothing about even Rictus. Why not have 4 wolves on Nitestorm in Day 1 Sheriff?

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:32:22

I don't want to lynch Ryvvn, I think he was really human today and he wouldn't jump ship without somebody vetting my math. I'm the only other player with more than 1 vote, but if you retract your vote Necklessone goes down to 3.

If you think there's somebody else worth lynching that's not Ryvvn, we can both vote him to tie and you can tiebreak-lynch that player.

You can also, of course, just switch to me. That works too.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 18:35:11

Hellheart wrote:Meh, it still won't work, he'll be 1 ahead now even if he votes for me. I will protest to EOD because it's the wrong move even if Necklessone is a wolf to lynch him right now.

If there was one wolf, we lynch him. Because there are two, lynching him resolves nothing regardless of role because the way the wolves are voting, knowing his role tells us nothing about even Rictus. Why not have 4 wolves on Nitestorm in Day 1 Sheriff?

There's one key advantage though. If necklessone is a Wolf and we lynch him then we win as soon as the Wolves maul the real Hunter. We may not be able to avoid having to lynch people, but every day the chance of the last Wolf mauling the Hunter goes up. So even if we completely suck at finding the last Wolf we can just get completely lucky.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:37:36

The wolves won't maul the real hunter by Final 7.

Today they maul Omega/Blindsniper.

Tomorrow they maul Omega/Blindsniper.

Then it's Final 7, and the Hunter counterclaims. He CANNOT be mauled before Final 7.

I know I'm right about this. I'm the only one arguing for this, which means that either both Necklessone and I (or Necklessone and Meta4) are wolves, or the wolves really REALLY want him to die today.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 18:39:30

Meta4. It's cheap, but we're not out much and we can continue the discussion tomorrow.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:41:23

And if the Hunter counterclaims on Final 7, then either they both die or just the wolf dies, and you'll have this whole argument to go from.

All of this is great, because if Necklessone is a wolf then the other wolf is not arguing to lynch Necklessone. Which is the biggest reason why I think he's not a wolf, because I"m not one and the only 2 other unconfirmed players not trying to lynch Necklessone are Meta4 and Visigoth.

----

I'm not on Meta4 anymore so IIRC you're the first vote, and since Furin's the Sheriff and makes the decision anyway he unfortunately gets the final call.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby sphenodont » 12 Feb 2014, 18:43:13

Yes, self-voting is allowed.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Rictus » 12 Feb 2014, 18:43:25

Hellheart I think you're more wolf than human but I agree with you on the hunter. So I will move m vote to whoever.
Charming, to the last.
.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:46:04

Rictus wrote:Hellheart I think you're more wolf than human but I agree with you on the hunter. So I will move m vote to whoever.

That would put Necklessone at 4, and unless you vote for me it's impossible for anyone else to be lynched without Furin's intervention.

It's still his call, and I'll go with anyone other than the confirmed humans and Ryvvn.

Including Aldax if he shows up at the 13th hour and casts a vote again.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Blindsniper83 » 12 Feb 2014, 18:47:29

Hellheart

Phone posting so no color
RaveBomb making a lot of sense is how you know you're past the point of no return and that death is the only escape.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby FurinMirado » 12 Feb 2014, 18:49:52

Still killing myself trying to figure this out. I don't even know what the vote count is.

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby Hellheart » 12 Feb 2014, 18:50:45

That puts me at 4, since I can vote for myself and I haven't retracted.

I don't recommend that you vote me here, Rictus, because I will flip human and that will look awful for you. Let Furin decide. I will swap my vote away from myself at the last moment assuming that Necklessone will vote for me.

Sorry Furin, gotta get the extra info out, but I expect to be tied at EOD unless you call for a switch elsewhere.

Necklessone - 4
Hellheart - 4

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Re: Day 08: Clear As Plastic Mud

Postby necklessone » 12 Feb 2014, 18:51:53

necklessone : 5 : Ryvvn, Mister E. Meat, FurinMirado, Omega
Hellheart : 4 : Visigoth, Meta4, Hellheart, BlindSniper83
Meta4 : 1 : necklessone
Ryvvn : 1 : Rictus


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