Night 2

I'm sure you're immune to the effects of Radon Canyon. Possibly. Well you certainly won't die a gruesome death. Maybe.
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Night 2

Postby FurinMirado » 24 Feb 2014, 18:22:29

You have killed sweet Carlos, you monsters. :x

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 24 Feb 2014, 18:25:57

Good news: we took out the Seer and the Vigilante!

Not-so-good news: I exclaimed so loudly when I saw the good news that there's a good chance Omega heard me downstairs.

Oh well, I wasn't going to live that long anyway ...

AWOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!

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Re: Night 2

Postby Visigoth » 24 Feb 2014, 18:27:00

Maybe we just maul him next to hide the evidence. :)

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Feb 2014, 18:43:49

Visigoth wrote:Maybe we just maul him next to hide the evidence. :)

Not the worst idea :lol:

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 24 Feb 2014, 18:48:09

Ryvvn wrote:
Visigoth wrote:Maybe we just maul him next to hide the evidence. :)

Not the worst idea :lol:

He may not have heard me-- let's see if he votes for me today.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Feb 2014, 18:52:54

Ozymandias wrote:
Ryvvn wrote:
Visigoth wrote:Maybe we just maul him next to hide the evidence. :)

Not the worst idea :lol:

He may not have heard me-- let's see if he votes for me today.

I'd imagine he wouldn't, doubt Omega would lean on a simple meta reason like that, if he did hear you he'll probably just be watching every move you make to build a solid case against you for later.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 24 Feb 2014, 19:01:43

Ryvvn wrote:I'd imagine he wouldn't, doubt Omega would lean on a simple meta reason like that, if he did hear you he'll probably just be watching every move you make to build a solid case against you for later.

Except that he has to be worried about getting mauled tonight, so he might feel compelled to voice a suspicion of me.

Or he might do a snipe EOD declaration such as "if I get mauled, Ozy's probably a Wolf."

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 24 Feb 2014, 19:04:53

If I get in lynch trouble, I may fake GA-claim, as a way of drawing out the real GA so that I can vig him.

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Re: Night 2

Postby rekard » 24 Feb 2014, 19:14:19

Well, let's see what happens. We got rid of the seer, our biggest enemy. He could have ruined any of our big plays. I will probably vote for a wolf tomorrow if things make sense.

I wouldn't worry about Omega, but we should just not appear coordinated with Ozy just in case. Day 1 was marvelous. Information is too vague with such small wagons.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ryvvn » 24 Feb 2014, 19:20:21

If we want to keep the maul to minimum info for humans, we'd be looking at Zark, Meta, Nitestorm, Smirker, and twdog; if any of these names sound good to you all, and since we're doing last vote for maul, we can just wait til close to EoD to see who among them receives no votes today as well.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 24 Feb 2014, 19:55:28

Not-so-good news: I exclaimed so loudly when I saw the good news that there's a good chance Omega heard me downstairs.

So hilarious. I also gave a good shout, but for me it was in a car on the way home.

Ozymandias wrote:If I get in lynch trouble, I may fake GA-claim, as a way of drawing out the real GA so that I can vig him.

If it were me, I wouldn't come out if you claimed, not for a few days anyways.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 24 Feb 2014, 20:16:58

rekard wrote:I wouldn't worry about Omega, but we should just not appear coordinated with Ozy just in case.

Agreed-- none of you should follow me onto Nitestorm today.

Because at some point I'm going to defend Nitestorm as probably Human, and claim that Wolves jumped on his bandwagon today in order to set me up tomorrow.

Hopefully, this will help get Nitestorm lynched after I'm dead.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ryvvn » 25 Feb 2014, 06:58:28

Though Furin says new vig may be Werewolf or Villager, guessing we weren't that lucky... game balance and all.

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Re: Night 2

Postby FurinMirado » 25 Feb 2014, 07:30:07

Ryvvn wrote:Though Furin says new vig may be Werewolf or Villager, guessing we weren't that lucky... game balance and all.

I am keeping it intentionally vague in the Day thread, but random.org chose from among the pool of Residents for game balance reasons. I want to keep the unused vig shot in the game but don't want anyone to somehow use this as a way to confirm themselves as a Resident.

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Re: Night 2

Postby rekard » 25 Feb 2014, 08:03:46

Zark's response to a single vote gives me a mild suspicion he can be a special. So who to maul? Hmmm. Votes seem good atm.

I wonder why humans didn't try more to survive.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 09:06:32

stigmata - (2) - Penalty x1, Rictus
7-zark-7 - (1) - San
BlindSniper83 - (1) - rekard
dferrantino - (1) - Iron Clad Burrito
Iron Clad Burrito - (1) - dferrantino
Nitestorm - (1) - Ozymandias
Ozymandias - (1) - Nitestorm
simple_simon - (1) - Smirker
Smirker - (1) - simple_simon
That PJ - (1) - Ryvvn
Clearasday - (1) - Penalty x1
Rictus - (1) - Penalty x1
twdog - (1) - Penalty x1
Visigoth - (1) - Admetus


Looks like a couple minor human vs human tiffs are brewing. I hope one of them takes off, it'd be good to get a human-only main wagon today if possible.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 09:07:11

rekard wrote:Zark's response to a single vote gives me a mild suspicion he can be a special.

I see what you mean.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 09:23:08

We may want to avoid Special suspects at this point, since the GA is 50% likely to be defending themselves, and I don't see any reason to waste a maul.

I think the three Humans who missed a vote are least likely to be the GA, so right now my maul preference would be:

Rictus > twdog > stigmata (not an actual vote)

Rictus' maul may make Visigoth look a bit more suspicious (due to that throwaway Day 1 vote), but I think it may actually bring more attention to stigmata.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 09:53:54

Figured switching to CAD so soon after Simon and dferr picked up a 2nd vote might make it look like I was trying to help them after I'm dead.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 11:50:57

If Visigoth's train doesn't take off, I'll probably look for an opportunity to vote right behind another wolf on a bigger train. Hopefully that's Smirker, since the Simon attack on Smirker is better than the almost-no-reason for everyone else right now, and I probably wouldn't vote behind the meta-based reason for CAD... but we'll see what we have to work with.

Clearasday - (3) - Penalty x1, Ozymandias, meta4
dferrantino - (2) - Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
Ozymandias - (2) - Nitestorm, Omega
Rictus - (2) - Penalty x1, sphenodont
Smirker - (2) - simple_simon, That PJ
stigmata - (2) - Penalty x1, Rictus
7-zark-7 - (1) - San
BlindSniper83 - (1) - rekard
Iron Clad Burrito - (1) - dferrantino
simple_simon - (1) - Smirker
That PJ - (1) - Ryvvn
Visigoth - (1) - Admetus
twdog - (1) - Penalty x1

Has not voted yet:
7-zark-7
BlindSniper83
Clearasday
fuzzmz
stigmata
twdog
Visigoth


I see that Omega has voted for Ozy now. Should we consider mauling him? It could be easily explained away as casting suspicion on Ozymandias, as the preferred wolf play when Ozy is human is to get him lynched. Put him as current maul target because we don't have one yet.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 11:56:06

Also, if it's convenient, it'd be nice if one of those main possibilities, either dferrantino or Smirker, remained wolf-free. Not much we can do if the humans don't cooperate, but I will try to avoid voting for Smirker if he can gather more momentum on his own.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 12:18:58

Yeah, Omega probably has to die.

Though I'm thinking about Vigging him at EOD to make sure I don't get lynched.

Likely outcome of that is I get vigged tomorrow by a Human vig-- but is that such a bad thing?

My death would give some human cred to rekard and CAD, and put suspicion on Nitestorm, dferrantino, and maybe Simon.

And at least the Vig wouldn't have take out a Wolf capable of actually winning ...

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 12:24:41

Admetus wrote:Also, if it's convenient, it'd be nice if one of those main possibilities, either dferrantino or Smirker, remained wolf-free. Not much we can do if the humans don't cooperate, but I will try to avoid voting for Smirker if he can gather more momentum on his own.

I'm trying to make it look like dferrantino and I are teammates (because my Day 1 vote also helped him), so I won't snipe dferr unless absolutely necessary.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 12:29:46

Ozymandias wrote:Yeah, Omega probably has to die.

Though I'm thinking about Vigging him at EOD to make sure I don't get lynched.

Likely outcome of that is I get vigged tomorrow by a Human vig-- but is that such a bad thing?

That sounds like a fine idea. It would probably work best if you had some reason to believe Omega was the wolf on your train, and I'd say that would be easiest (if I was the one picking) if he was the last one. But it's perfectly valid, especially after Hellheart died with his shot in hand, to say "I know I'm human, and I have been forced to pick my best guess among those voting for me."

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 12:36:57

Alternatively, we could go for yesterday's crazyplan. One or more of us could put a significant vote on you, like responding to a tie of dferrantino by pushing you out front -- and then you shoot him. The long term "why is Ozy alive" answer would be "the wolves know he's powerless now." But you'd still have to get past the "Ozy would be capable of that sacrifice" suggestions.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 12:45:08

Admetus wrote:Alternatively, we could go for yesterday's crazyplan. One or more of us could put a significant vote on you, like responding to a tie of dferrantino by pushing you out front -- and then you shoot him. The long term "why is Ozy alive" answer would be "the wolves know he's powerless now." But you'd still have to get past the "Ozy would be capable of that sacrifice" suggestions.

It's tempting, but don't think it really has a chance of working.

Even if the Day 2 Human vig (or other Day 1 Human vig if there was more than one) doesn't shoot me, their eventual deaths will make me look more suspicious.

Similarly, every time a Wolf dies and isn't revealed to be a Vig, I'll become more suspicious.

So I don't really think it's possible for any Werewolf Vig (much less me) who has fired early on to win in the endgame.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 12:50:31

Admetus wrote:The long term "why is Ozy alive" answer would be "the wolves know he's powerless now."

One other point-- the Sheriff might reload a Vig, so the Wolves couldn't be sure that Human Vig Ozy would stay powerless.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 12:55:28

Ooh, I just had an idea.

What if I vig Omega with like an hour left (I'll say I won't be around for EOD), and then claim that I didn't become a Vig until the start of Day 2?

That should induce the real Day 2 vig to vig me, which would have the added benefit of taking a vote off of CAD.

Thoughts?

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 13:06:09

I don't think that buys us much. Each vig might die without shooting, or after missing. Each vig is pretty much the same in value.

I'd rather try to sell it as what you'd do if you were about to die as a human vig, especially after Hellheart died without taking his shot. You might even live!

And if not, at least we'd get some nice Ozymandias polarizing, for old times' sake.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 14:00:53

Subject: Day 2: Goldfish

Ozymandias wrote:I think the nine singletons (or eight, depending on how you count Visigoth) were mainly a consequence of (a) so many players not voting on Day 1, and (b) the to-my-mind irrational widespread belief that players shouldn't do everything they can to defend themselves at EOD. That's something I've never understood.

Whether or not you were doing it deliberately, this lays the groundwork nicely for a vig-snipe on Omega at the end of the day.

If you're not tied nearing the EOD, do you want me to vote for you to give you the motive?

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 14:05:25

Admetus wrote:Subject: Day 2: Goldfish

Ozymandias wrote:I think the nine singletons (or eight, depending on how you count Visigoth) were mainly a consequence of (a) so many players not voting on Day 1, and (b) the to-my-mind irrational widespread belief that players shouldn't do everything they can to defend themselves at EOD. That's something I've never understood.

Whether or not you were doing it deliberately, this lays the groundwork nicely for a vig-snipe on Omega at the end of the day.

If you're not tied nearing the EOD, do you want me to vote for you to give you the motive?

Possibly. I'm still working out scenarios where I role-claim as special first (but don't specify GA or Vig).

If I do that late enough in the day, I think I can also justify firing before I get mauled, so as not to lose my shot (because I can't be sure the GA is around).

EDIT: Not sure if I want to involve a Wolf in the ploy-- I think I rather just have people ask why I shot Omega instead of Nitestorm.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ryvvn » 25 Feb 2014, 14:40:45

Maybe I'm missing something, but seems to me if Ozy uses his vig for any reason it should only be because he was about to die anyway (is that where we are at, just catching up post work now), because we know there's a new human vig and any human of half intelligence would know Ozy's a wolf vig the moment he fired; so doesn't that human insta-shoot Ozy back? I don't see how you could ever pull off maybe Ozy's a human vig here if he fires.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Visigoth » 25 Feb 2014, 14:57:29

Yeah, not quite seeing it either. Now if it ends up that with Ozy taking his shot and potentially the Human Vig taking his that the lynch leader ends up a Human there'd be a 2-1 swing in our favor. Plus if it happens soon enough we can then maul that exposed Vig so they don't stick around as a confirmed human assuming the GA doesn't shift targets to that person of course. Still not sure if that's worth it or not.

About the only chance of it working is if one of the Human Vigs (I mean this game was sold as a "too many Vigs" and the rules state there will be multiples) doesn't immediately fire thus giving Ozy a chance to try and sell everyone that he is one of the Human Vigs. It seems that people are forgetting that a bit in lamenting Hellheart's death. Though since Furin did reassign the role to someone else it does make one question how many are out there that it was important enough for balance to keep one alive. If it's just a Human and a Wolf Vig that sure doesn't seem like too many to me.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 15:07:17

There is definitely more than one human vig. Shooting Ozy would be a 50/50 shot assuming 2 human vigs, worse if there are more. I would not take that shot if I were human.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 15:09:27

Sphenodont's messages aren't that thoroughly encrypted if you guys want to try to read them. I have the ones from today translated (maybe with the exception of the one that seems garbled). But I feel like sharing that information would only hurt our attempt to blend in. So I'll just say they're not that important, you can tell he was saying something about Visigoth's vote in the edit where he says he's still concerned about it. At one point he suggests that he is not a Vigilante.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 15:14:12

I can't represent myself as the new Day 2 Vig (and expect to live) because the actual Day 2 vig will shoot me.

So I would have to pretend to be a Day 1 Vig and hope there was only 1 Human Vig on Day 1.

If not, then the 2nd Day 1 Human Vig would almost certainly insta-kill me.

Anyway, the only reason I'm considering using the Vig if I'm not in lynch trouble is the credibility I may gain from starting the CAD bandwagon.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Visigoth » 25 Feb 2014, 15:16:16

Ozymandias wrote:Rictus > twdog > stigmata (not an actual vote)

Rictus' maul may make Visigoth look a bit more suspicious (due to that throwaway Day 1 vote), but I think it may actually bring more attention to stigmata.
Possibly but Day 1 was a bit of a mess all around with the numbers. And honestly since I'm sure some people are likely suspicious of me anyhow it might be best to focus people on me in an attempt to take it away from you all. Between not voting to save myself and basically not putting a vote in on Day 1 there's a decent bit of unusual play from me already. Plus once I'm revealed as a wolf people might get it in their heads that the reason I didn't vote on some of the others was because there's a wolf or two within that group and they'd go after one of them.

Haven't even thought about them really. I'd suspected it was some code, but even as a human I likely wouldn't be that interested in it. If anything it would likely make me want to vote on him since obfuscation of posts annoys me. RP is one thing, but basically intentionally making it hard to read bugs me.

For the maul I'm good with:

Rictus > twdog, but if also good with removing Omega as a possible meta-leak source. Might even work to humanize Ozy, if he lives, since I'd think it suspicious that one of the people voting on him was mauled. Either they are trying going after people voting on a wolf in suspicion that he might be the Seer (who's dead) or trying to frame Ozy. And since Ozy always gets attention it might be a way for the wolves to keep up the pressure.

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Re: Night 2

Postby FurinMirado » 25 Feb 2014, 15:19:30

That makes the current maul:

Rictus --> twdog

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ryvvn » 25 Feb 2014, 15:39:13

Visigoth wrote:About the only chance of it working is if one of the Human Vigs (I mean this game was sold as a "too many Vigs" and the rules state there will be multiples) doesn't immediately fire thus giving Ozy a chance to try and sell everyone that he is one of the Human Vigs. It seems that people are forgetting that a bit in lamenting Hellheart's death. Though since Furin did reassign the role to someone else it does make one question how many are out there that it was important enough for balance to keep one alive. If it's just a Human and a Wolf Vig that sure doesn't seem like too many to me.

I do wonder if Furin decided against going too crazy with the "too many vigs" thing at the last minute, it seems odd that he would so quickly re-arm the humans with an extra vig if they hadn't possibly lost their only one along with the seer... especially since we could potentially have a WoG'd wolf if CAD doesn't start participating; would make sense to me, if there was still a living human vig, for the GM to wait for the day 1 non-voters to show activity before deciding that an additional human vig was necessary.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ryvvn » 25 Feb 2014, 15:43:16

FurinMirado wrote:That makes the current maul:

Rictus --> twdog

I'm assuming wolves who have already voted can simply retract and revote to be the most current? Just curious, as I'm okay with this maul or Omega if other's decide that's best. Though I did like the idea of mauling people that gave zero information, which of these three choices, only twdog still fits.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 15:49:31

GM, is there chance you may just flat-out WOG CAD, stigmata, and/or twdog if they don't vote today (as opposed to WOG-replace them with a dead player, or doing nothing at all)?

If so, can we do a conditional maul dependent on whether players lynch vote?

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Re: Night 2

Postby FurinMirado » 25 Feb 2014, 15:49:55

Ryvvn wrote:
FurinMirado wrote:That makes the current maul:

Rictus --> twdog

I'm assuming wolves who have already voted can simply retract and revote to be the most current? Just curious, as I'm okay with this maul or Omega if other's decide that's best. Though I did like the idea of mauling people that gave zero information, which of these three choices, only twdog still fits.

Yes, someone can post a new maul vote which will override the last vote.

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Ozymandias
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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 15:54:16

Lynch vote tally

Clearasday - 3 - Penalty x1, meta4, dferrantino
Ozymandias - 3 - Nitestorm, Omega, Smirker
Smirker - 3 - simple_simon, That PJ, Ozymandias
dferrantino - 2 - Iron Clad Burrito, DastardlyOldMan
stigmata - 2 - Penalty x1, Rictus
7-zark-7 - 1 - San
BlindSniper83 - 1 - rekard
Iron Clad Burrito - 1 - dferrantino
Rictus - 1 - Penalty x1
Ryvvn - 1 - fuzzmz
simple_simon - 1 - Visigoth
That PJ - 1 - Ryvvn
twdog - 1 - Penalty x1
Visigoth - 1 - Admetus

Still to Vote - 6 - 7-zark-7, BlindSniper83, Clearasday, stigmata, twdog, sphenodont

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Re: Night 2

Postby FurinMirado » 25 Feb 2014, 15:54:33

Ozymandias wrote:GM, is there chance you may just flat-out WOG CAD, stigmata, and/or twdog if they don't vote today (as opposed to WOG-replace them with a dead player, or doing nothing at all)?

If so, can we do a conditional maul dependent on whether players lynch vote?

No one gets WOG'd today for missing twice in a row. I was going to give them one more day. Also Hellheart is waiting in the wings to replace someone that is WOG'd.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 16:00:56

Voting behind Ozy makes it look like there is a wolf we're trying to protect. Oh wait, there are two. Maybe I'll do something else then. I wonder if I can find a reason to vote for Blindsniper or Simple_Simon.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 16:07:36

I don't think we should get too greedy.

I think the goal today should simply be to lynch one Human and vig another.

That will be worth my getting vigged or lynched tomorrow.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Feb 2014, 16:15:49

I don't think four singleton Wolf votes is a good thing.

If someone doesn't mind switching their vote to dferrantino, I think that would be helpful.

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Re: Night 2

Postby rekard » 25 Feb 2014, 16:19:18

I had just noticed that. The funny thing is that 3 of those were cast BEFORE wagons appeared. Not intentional at all, just fate. That can be the argument.


Hmm.
I am still thinking. I see more likely to vote for you or dferrantino since you both voted for a penalized player.

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 16:21:57

I can't realistically vote for Simon because I've already mentioned Visigoth pinged my radar, and Smirker is doing it now, with his "lots about Simon, vote Ozy" post. I would vote Smirker, but the analysis is too simple on that, we could lose 3 wolves with one day of voting record. I can vote dfer, but again, the analysis is getting straightforward.

I wouldn't typically vote CAD with a penalty vote, but maybe?

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Re: Night 2

Postby Admetus » 25 Feb 2014, 16:22:26

And yes, I could pretty easily vote for Ozy. You've been quieter than normal.


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