Torture Cubicle 3

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Feb 2014, 20:20:34

Hellheart wrote:The wolves mauling Zark there should actually clear DOM.

Why's that?

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 28 Feb 2014, 20:24:42

Ozymandias wrote:Why's that?

So an analytical human who was shaking things up in the thread got shot by a Vigilante, and the natural thought process is "a wolf must be responsible." In this case, it would be either Zark or DOM. If DOM is a wolf, the wolves CANNOT maul Zark this early no matter how human he looks because then anyone who wants to punish for the Vig shot on me is going to default to DOM. There's no Zark suspicion clogging up the thread and wolf-DOM would have nowhere to hide. If Zark is left alive, the wolves can clog up the thread with Zark wolf suspicion and keep DOM alive.

DOM was one of the major wagons with Smirker and (bafflingly) Blindsniper. He needs all the help he can get.

C'mon ICB, you can get the humans on the right track!

----

So, Smirker in blue makes DOM actually look better on Day 1 - if there's going to be a risky 2nd vote on a wolf like that, there may as well be two wolf votes on Visigoth.

That PJ is highly unlikely to be a wolf based on Day 2, but I didn't push him at all - hopefully someone catches onto that, but I'm not holding my breath. He's catching on and appearing more human now, which is good. Rekard and Admetus on a human on Day 2 is so dirty and will help hide him for awhile.

And now Day 3 is fascinating - FINALLY a story emerges. There are two players left that aren't on the two wolf wagons, and sphenodont will get lynched and come up human. That, more than anything else, is going to be the turning point if anything's going to save the humans.

I'm worried that Blindsniper is going to get shit for Day 4, but then again there's no way ANOTHER wolf-wagon is pushed forward like that. Somebody's going to look at the Admetus wagon.

I honestly don't think lynching any other player gives the humans any real chance of finding the wolves in time via voting analysis.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Feb 2014, 20:32:28

Hellheart wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Why's that?

So a human got shot by a Vigilante, and the natural thought process is "a wolf must be responsible." In this case, it would be either Zark or DOM.

I think you mean blindsniper. I agree that mauling DOM or blindsniper tonight would look suspicious if the other were a Wolf, but I think Zark being mauled last night and officially revealed as a Human vig (given the inexplicable doubt about Zark's Humanity) will actually make it more likely that DOM or blindsniper gets lynched today.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 28 Feb 2014, 20:41:50

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Why's that?

So a human got shot by a Vigilante, and the natural thought process is "a wolf must be responsible." In this case, it would be either Zark or DOM.

I think you mean blindsniper. I agree that mauling DOM or blindsniper tonight would look suspicious if the other were a Wolf, but I think Zark being mauled last night and officially revealed as a Human vig (given the inexplicable doubt about Zark's Humanity) will actually make it more likely that DOM or blindsniper gets lynched today.

That's the whole point. If DOM is a wolf, they can't maul Zark, because it most likely goes DOM > Blindsniper or Blindsniper > DOM. The wolves want the consecutive mislynches to get their victory, and it's possible to go either Blindsniper > Zark or, more likely, sphenodont > Blindsniper as long as Zark is alive.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 28 Feb 2014, 20:46:00

I forgot to say that my original letter for the dead that fingered both you and rekard for mauling MEM was a fucking stroke of genius.'

EDIT: Oh, Furin didn't post it there. Here it is:

Hellheart wrote:There were 3 players that stood out as potentially wolfy for me, although not enough to even mention in the thread had I lived:

That PJ (odd vote justification)
DOM (since when does he cast the 2nd vote on anyone instead of starting a wagon?)
Simple_Simon (heatmap says that if the wolves casted a lot of 2nd votes, he's the most likely trigger)

There's also a handful of players that I suspect would push to maul MEM there because he seems to be a default "maul somebody unimportant" target. There's too many to list, although IIRC both Ozymandias and rekard would both make that list.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 28 Feb 2014, 21:00:37

Hellheart wrote:I forgot to say that my original letter for the dead that fingered both you and rekard for mauling MEM was a fucking stroke of genius.

Hellheart wrote:There's also a handful of players that I suspect would push to maul MEM there because he seems to be a default "maul somebody unimportant" target. There's too many to list, although IIRC both Ozymandias and rekard would both make that list.

Well, you can pat yourself on the back all you want, but your reasoning was completely off-base.

I mauled MEM in this game because I had a strong Special read on him.

And the only other time I remember mauling him on Night 1 was that he was RP'ing a character who could potentially kill one of the other Wolves in Mortus' theater game.

So I have quite demonstrably never mauled MEM because of his perceived "unimportance."

Quite frankly, I think even suggesting that is very offensive to MEM, whom I consider to be one of the better players in the game.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 28 Feb 2014, 21:09:43

Ozymandias wrote:Quite frankly, I think even suggesting that is very offensive to MEM, whom I consider to be one of the better players in the game.

"Unimportant" does not mean "useless." "Unimportant" means that his death won't draw a whole lot of attention if it's early, probably because it happens so damn often, and he doesn't seem to have critical Day 1 votes for wolves very often. Granted, almost nobody does, but it definitely plays a factor. He's also the sort of player who can hide as a special role for a long time, which is the other meaning for "unimportant" - other examples are Meta4, San, Blindsniper, AVS, etc. They often need horrible votes to get lynched in the first half of the game, so the wolves can only special hunt them with Wolf Seer and the maul.

Rekard pushed for an early MEM maul in Tempus Vigilantes, IIRC, along with DOM. You might not have specifically pushed for MEM, but mauling somebody "unimportant" would be an easy default Day 1 choice. And out of those players, MEM is probably the most threatening to have around. He's a good maul target if that's what you're going for.

Nitestorm is also a good Day 1 maul target, but you can't really get away with Day 1 mauling him if you're a wolf :lol:

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 28 Feb 2014, 22:02:23

Oh God Ryvvn, don't quote the one post I made that had this direct appeal to ICB to look at you more closely:

Helheart wrote:I have a strong human read on ICB and a weak human read on rekard. Either I or ICB should have a weak human read on Ryvvn by EOD.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Smirker » 28 Feb 2014, 23:06:45

Hellheart wrote:So used to the dead thread being at the top. Sorry about that. Mirroring my posts from the letters thread here.

Had to be done, Smirker. Your continued survival was just ruining voting analysis. I still haven't looked at who the wolves are, doing that now.

No worries. and thanks for the game FM. :)

More later - i'm still doing damn laundry!

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby FurinMirado » 01 Mar 2014, 07:51:35

This has unintentionally been an interesting psychological experiment with the vigs. If anyone does multi-vigs again I hope they will look at this game. I feel like promoting vigs works only in the early game, only sparingly, and only if you start the game by announcing that there will be promotions/reloads without notice. The amount of suspicion of the vigs has been much more than I would have thought. I was only trying to make sure no one ends up "confirmed" Human but it turned out to be so much more.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Mar 2014, 10:39:20

Hellheart wrote:I honestly don't think lynching any other player gives the humans any real chance of finding the wolves in time via voting analysis.

Actually, I don't think the Wolves can be caught with straightforward voting analysis, no matter who gets lynched today.

Right now, the top 2 suspects based on voting analysis are clearly spheno (only Day 3 unconfirmed on Human Smirker) and blindsniper (only Day 1 unconfirmed on Human simon, and only voted for by Humans on Day 1).

I would say the next most suspicious (based only on votes) are Nitestorm (voted for too many Wolves) and ICB (voted for too many Humans, and will likely lead charge against spheno).

rekard's final votes are actually really solid-- he's on two different 2-vote bandwagons with known Wolves (Day 1 with me on ICB, Day 2 with Admetus on blindsniper), and his next 2 final votes are for Admetus.

So I think the only way to catch rekard is to re-read the Day 3 and Day 4 threads and realize how strange his Day 4 votes were (i.e., why didn't he immediately vote for Admetus again?)-- particularly his inexplicable temporary excursion onto blindsniper's bandwagon in a post in which he mainly attacked Admetus.

Ryyvn could get in a little bit of trouble after spheno dies, leaving Ryvvn as the only Day 1 unconfirmed on dferrantino. But there are a lot of other Humans in similar situations, and he can credibly claim that he led the charge against Admetus, so I think the only way to catch him is if he overplays the agonizing "What do I do?" schtick he deployed today.

Now CAD actually does have a bad voting history (hasn't voted for a Wolf yet), but given all the other Wolf-on-Wolf votes and his Wolf-sacrificing reputation, I think that will actually work out in his favor. So I think the only way to catch him is to figure out that the only reason I would cast such a predictably unpopular vote for a penalized player as a Wolf is to give them Human cred. But no one seems to have made that connection.

So I think the Wolves are in a pretty great spot right now-- in fact, I think three consecutive Human lynches and a Wolf win on Night 8 is the most likely outcome.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 01 Mar 2014, 10:55:19

Well, the problem with not knowing anything about the votes at all is that you're going off of pure instinct/tone and that's too easy for the wolves to manipulate. In this situation, I usually don't take the obvious choices - for example, why would wolf-sphenodont make that late vote on human-Smirker if all the other wolves are probably on the two wolf wagons? Clearly spreading out their votes has not been a priority for the wolves.

That said, I shook things up because I needed answers and I strongly suspected that the obvious choices weren't wolves. That's why I'm hoping ICB does work, because wolf-hunter ICB is very big on tone and posting and I think that's where Ryvvn slipped up and rekard practically hung himself if you look really hard. Late votes are just not something human-rekard does almost ever. It draws too much attention to him.

I think it needs to be ICB though. As far as I'm concerned his human cred should be ironclad regardless of his votes because he was my only strong human read, but it probably won't work out that way. I suck at a lot of things, but if I'm giving human leans sparingly then my strong human lean is human full stop. I'm not talking based on how voting goes where MEM got me last game because that can fail - that's clearly not what I did with ICB.

ICB argued a bit with me over this, but I gave him a very complete explanation of my tone read on him and I think it's 100% accurate for pegging him as human.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 01 Mar 2014, 11:05:59

I really like how That PJ is playing-- hope he sticks around.

The point he made about the Wolves mauling Zark because they were afraid he might get reloaded is a very good one.

He's also had a lot of other good spot reads throughout the game.

Well done, future That PJ!

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 01 Mar 2014, 11:34:50

Ozymandias wrote:I really like how That PJ is playing-- hope he sticks around.

The point he made about the Wolves mauling Zark because they were afraid he might get reloaded is a very good one.

He's also had a lot of other good spot reads throughout the game.

Well done, future That PJ!

Agreed. He's really come along well in the past couple days.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby FurinMirado » 02 Mar 2014, 17:17:36

All of the current lynch nominees are Residents. I'm going to go ahead and reconfigure my narrative to include the lynch of a Resident. This will no doubt cause a Wolf to be lynched.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 02 Mar 2014, 17:21:52

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:Though I will note that rekard has been agreeing with me a little too readily. But I may be paranoid.

I think the turning point will be whether or not ICB catches Ryvvn before he gets mauled. I think that would give him both the credibility and the confidence he'd need to get CAD lynched if he hadn't done so already, and then it'll be a question of how much suspicion he expresses towards rekard before he gets mauled.

ICB now can't be mauled tonight as long as DOM is alive (not that they were planning to maul him) - the wolves risk having DOM notice that ICB was mauled after he expressed suspicion towards rekard. I'm not sure if he has the credibility to turn things around if he goes after That PJ tomorrow, though.

DOM's Vig shot was awful from a credibility standpoint - if I were a wolf it wouldn't make him look that good, but if I'm a human he can no longer change thread consensus.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 02 Mar 2014, 17:42:05

The Wolves really have a tough maul choice, because almost every Human is more suspicious than they are :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

I think I would maul fuzzmz instead of Nitestorm, especially if he doesn't vote, but it's a close call.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 02 Mar 2014, 18:08:42

GM, given that the Wolves may win in two days partially because CAD has missed two votes, I think you can justify giving the Humans another Vig (which would have the added benefit of making the endgame more fun).

Though if you do, I don't think you should reload DOM or blindsniper, because that would basically confirm them as Human since it will be hard to believe that you reloaded a Wolf vig when the Wolves are already so close to victory.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 02 Mar 2014, 18:17:43

sphenodont wrote:Shit, got caught up watching House of Cards and missed changing my vote.

Well, good going humans. Glad they were able to snow you.

Oh man, you have no idea what you're in for.

Wait until you see who the wolf team is.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Nitestorm » 02 Mar 2014, 18:19:53

Hellheart wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:Quite frankly, I think even suggesting that is very offensive to MEM, whom I consider to be one of the better players in the game.

"Unimportant" does not mean "useless." "Unimportant" means that his death won't draw a whole lot of attention if it's early, probably because it happens so damn often, and he doesn't seem to have critical Day 1 votes for wolves very often. Granted, almost nobody does, but it definitely plays a factor. He's also the sort of player who can hide as a special role for a long time, which is the other meaning for "unimportant" - other examples are Meta4, San, Blindsniper, AVS, etc. They often need horrible votes to get lynched in the first half of the game, so the wolves can only special hunt them with Wolf Seer and the maul.

Rekard pushed for an early MEM maul in Tempus Vigilantes, IIRC, along with DOM. You might not have specifically pushed for MEM, but mauling somebody "unimportant" would be an easy default Day 1 choice. And out of those players, MEM is probably the most threatening to have around. He's a good maul target if that's what you're going for.

Nitestorm is also a good Day 1 maul target, but you can't really get away with Day 1 mauling him if you're a wolf :lol:


I'm the worst day 1 maul target, as I'm usually an early lynch target anyways. :lol:

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Nitestorm » 02 Mar 2014, 18:20:48

Now that I'm an apparently no longer amongst the living, I say we need to remove Ozymandias from here, as the underworld is simply too small for the two of us. :lol:

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 02 Mar 2014, 18:21:26

Nitestorm wrote:I'm the worst day 1 maul target, as I'm usually an early lynch target anyways. :lol:

I'm one of a handful of players that want to keep you around because your posts are fun to read.

There's a lot of other players you can't say that for.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby FurinMirado » 02 Mar 2014, 18:30:32

Ozymandias wrote:GM, given that the Wolves may win in two days partially because CAD has missed two votes, I think you can justify giving the Humans another Vig (which would have the added benefit of making the endgame more fun).

Though if you do, I don't think you should reload DOM or blindsniper, because that would basically confirm them as Human since it will be hard to believe that you reloaded a Wolf vig when the Wolves are already so close to victory.


My instinct is to let it ride, but I'll put it to a vote:

Dear Deadites,

Should I give someone (currently in the game) a vig shot? If so who?

Sincerely,

FurinMirado

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby twdog » 02 Mar 2014, 19:03:17

get ravebomb in there somehow and make him a vig :)

---

despite being a resident, I don't favor adding any vigs at this point. The wolves usually lose on this board, and I think it's kind of an ass move to hand out a gun to the humans at this point when things are looking up for them in the endgame. That said, I do like shenanigans, so whatever is fine by me.
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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 02 Mar 2014, 19:13:58

If you wanted to shake things up and DOM/Blindsniper wouldn't lead the wagons, you could do it like this: if the two/three/whatever leading wagons tomorrow are human by X hours before EOD, publicly say that one of them now has a Vig shot. You can either assign it then, or simply give them an hour to announce who their Vig target will be and RAND it at that point (just in case one or more would be AFK).

That would result in maximum chaos, but might give players the impression that all 3 are human. You can also RAND it and let the player know silently that he now has a Vig shot that he must use that day. Then that player appears to be a Vig who held onto his shot for forever.

Either one of those is completely useless if Blindsniper and/or DOM are among the leaders, at which point twdog's statement makes more sense than anything else.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 02 Mar 2014, 19:17:35

Oh, and in the second option above...you also need to add the condition that if that player hints, alleges, or outright states that he received his Vig shot as an award, he will be immediately WOG'd.

And reveal him as a Resident Vig, because he was.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby twdog » 02 Mar 2014, 19:19:40

Hellheart wrote:if the two/three/whatever leading wagons tomorrow are human by X hours before EOD, publicly say that one of them now has a Vig shot.


Wouldn't this strongly imply they're human? I mean, it's not an outright confirmation, of course, but everybody in the game knows that Furin isn't going to be giving away any guns to the wolves given the current situation. If he does give a gun out, it should be secret, imho
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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 02 Mar 2014, 19:27:11

twdog wrote:
Hellheart wrote:if the two/three/whatever leading wagons tomorrow are human by X hours before EOD, publicly say that one of them now has a Vig shot.


Wouldn't this strongly imply they're human? I mean, it's not an outright confirmation, of course, but everybody in the game knows that Furin isn't going to be giving away any guns to the wolves given the current situation. If he does give a gun out, it should be secret, imho

Did you read the rest of my message? I mentioned that possibility/likelihood and the second option involves a secret Vig shot award :lol:

That option allows for the maximum amount of chaos. It's not necessarily the best way to go about it.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 02 Mar 2014, 19:35:58

FurinMirado wrote:Should I give someone (currently in the game) a vig shot? If so who?

If you're going to do it, I think it's best just to randomly assign the Vig to one of the five vanilla Residents (fuzzmz/ICB/Meta4/Rictus/PJ)

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby twdog » 02 Mar 2014, 19:38:08

Hellheart wrote:Did you read the rest of my message? I mentioned that possibility/likelihood


yes, but it seemed like you didn't think that possibility is likely, but from my perspective, it's extremely likely.

--

It's also worth remembering that late game vig shots are dramatically more powerful given the list of suspects is greatly reduced. It's much easier for a vig to hit a wolf when 2/3 of the players are already dead and the rest have days of posting\voting history that can be analyzed
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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 02 Mar 2014, 19:42:26

twdog wrote:The wolves usually lose on this board.

Is that true?

The Wolves won my last game as a Wolf (Game 59) and the Game I GM'ed (Game 61), so the percentages can't be too bad ...

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby twdog » 02 Mar 2014, 19:45:10

Ozymandias wrote:
twdog wrote:The wolves usually lose on this board.

Is that true?

The Wolves won my last game as a Wolf (Game 59) and the Game I GM'ed (Game 61), so the percentages can't be too bad ...


I can only recall them winning 3 times in all the games I've played in, but I'd have to check to be sure

edit:

Ozymandias wrote:The Wolves won my last game as a Wolf (Game 59) and the Game I GM'ed (Game 61), so the percentages can't be too bad ...


Wait, the wolves win when you're on their team?

OH MY GOD YOU'RE A WOLF!!!! NITESTORM IS RIGHT!!!! :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o :o x infinity
Last edited by twdog on 02 Mar 2014, 19:47:10, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 02 Mar 2014, 19:46:11

FurinMirado wrote:
Ozymandias wrote:GM, given that the Wolves may win in two days partially because CAD has missed two votes, I think you can justify giving the Humans another Vig (which would have the added benefit of making the endgame more fun).

Though if you do, I don't think you should reload DOM or blindsniper, because that would basically confirm them as Human since it will be hard to believe that you reloaded a Wolf vig when the Wolves are already so close to victory.


My instinct is to let it ride, but I'll put it to a vote:

Dear Deadites,

Should I give someone (currently in the game) a vig shot? If so who?

Sincerely,

FurinMirado

Thought of possibly a more fun way to end the game:

When the Wolves are one day away from winning, just give EVERY vanilla resident-- but just one Wolf-- a Vig.

EDIT: You can even do it sequentially, by telling each Vig they only have one or two hours to fire from the time they open their PM.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Omega » 02 Mar 2014, 19:56:17

I'm on the no-vig side of things for gameplay reasons, but on the GIVE ALL VIGS side for the "my entertainment" side of things.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby twdog » 02 Mar 2014, 20:00:40

Although now that I think about it, the wolves in the last game I GM'd were on the very cusp of victory when their vigilante turn traitor and shot ICB 51 seconds before EOD. I guess I can't really blame them for not winning that one!
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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 02 Mar 2014, 20:05:22

twdog wrote:Although now that I think about it, the wolves in the last game I GM'd were on the very cusp of victory when their vigilante turn traitor and shot ICB 51 seconds before EOD. I guess I can't really blame them for not winning that one!

SELDOOOOOON!!!

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby twdog » 02 Mar 2014, 20:48:05

Hellheart wrote:
twdog wrote:Although now that I think about it, the wolves in the last game I GM'd were on the very cusp of victory when their vigilante turn traitor and shot ICB 51 seconds before EOD. I guess I can't really blame them for not winning that one!

SELDOOOOOON!!!


Seldon and evil-ICB were pretty awesome moments in an otherwise sucky game. So course, Seldon wasn't very awesome at all if you were undead or a wolf :lol:
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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 02 Mar 2014, 21:15:29

I liked when the poison zombie at the end gnawed on...was it DOM and Necklessone? For like 4 rounds each. I had that choreographed so perfectly that it was worth watching even though it was ultimately useless.

I like having games with more distinct bounds and the entire playerbase participating within a TWG, because I can actually be reasonably effective when game-solving those.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Okaros » 02 Mar 2014, 23:03:50

twdog wrote:Seldon and evil-ICB were pretty awesome moments in an otherwise sucky game. So course, Seldon wasn't very awesome at all if you were undead or a wolf :lol:


As a wolf in that game, I beg to differ! 8-)



Edit: Also, I'd vote for letting the game play out w/o further vigs being added.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby FurinMirado » 03 Mar 2014, 03:11:42

I'm just going to let things play out. The vigs did what they were supposed to do: shorten the game and make things more interesting.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby 7-zark-7 » 03 Mar 2014, 06:53:30

twdog wrote:
Hellheart wrote:
twdog wrote:Although now that I think about it, the wolves in the last game I GM'd were on the very cusp of victory when their vigilante turn traitor and shot ICB 51 seconds before EOD. I guess I can't really blame them for not winning that one!

SELDOOOOOON!!!


Seldon and evil-ICB were pretty awesome moments in an otherwise sucky game. So course, Seldon wasn't very awesome at all if you were undead or a wolf :lol:


It's too early for another Seldon Crisis. Unless this is that Mule I keep hearing about.

Hmm:

Subject: Day 7: Subway

rekard wrote:Hm. Ok. We can only fail two more lynches. We are 7 vs 3 wolves right now. So let's see.


That PJ wrote:Been looking through some of the recent days, and I'm starting to get really nervous about ICB and rekard. They've been leading a lot of wagons against humans, and generally with a good success rate. Even their posts ruminating over who might be wolves seems to result in a list of proven humans (now, after the fact).

Whatever the case, we really can't afford to get it wrong this time. rekard's wrong--we can only fail one more lynch if we want to succeed. Less if there are loaded vigilantes that might misfire.


Come on PJ - make us proud. It's at this point that the humans need to ask the question I always raise day 1: Why is Rekard still alive?

More in a bit,

7z7
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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby twdog » 03 Mar 2014, 07:08:53

7-zark-7 wrote:It's at this point that the humans need to ask the question I always raise day 1: Why is Rekard still alive?


lol ... yeah, the question all right. I think next time I'm a wolf and rekard is human, I'm going to argue that we leave him alive for as long as possible. The humans will lynch him all on their own without us having to push it.
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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Mister E. Meat » 03 Mar 2014, 07:51:41

Honestly, I'm shocked that rekard is still around after that whole Admetus nonsense. But like I said upthread, I'm glad to see the wolves win because it seems like they have a way less than 50% win rate.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 03 Mar 2014, 10:05:19

Mister E. Meat wrote:Honestly, I'm shocked that rekard is still around after that whole Admetus nonsense. But like I said upthread, I'm glad to see the wolves win because it seems like they have a way less than 50% win rate.

I was thinking about pushing hard for rekard after that, but after Admetus was a wolf I couldn't justify it and I knew I would die that day so I just needed to gather reads.

I should've pushed my ICB = human read harder. Wolf-hunter ICB is never a wolf. He's never been able to replicate that as a wolf. It's as good as a Seer peek as far as I'm concerned.

ICB needs to sell out on rekard and not give up. I think DOM will back him up on that, and Rictus seems to be on board, and I think PJ will go along with most of the other players on this. rekard is going to fight HARD, and I really want to see what Ryvvn is going to do in that spot. If rekard ends up getting lynched, waiting too long to go on him - or never going onto him at all - is going to raise giant red flags.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 03 Mar 2014, 10:14:47

I think rekard's going to get lynched today for another reason - CAD can't afford to vote away from a wolf again. He's best off actually pushing rekard because he desperately needs the human cred at this point.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 03 Mar 2014, 10:22:22

Hellheart wrote:I think rekard's going to get lynched today for another reason - CAD can't afford to vote away from a wolf again. He's best off actually pushing rekard because he desperately needs the human cred at this point.

CAD's only cast one known vote on a confirmed Human, so actually I don't think he needs that Human cred at this point.

Also, CAD voting for a Wolf actually makes him more Wolfy, because it confirms other players' expectations of him.

So I think it makes more sense for CAD to keep voting for DOM.

As long as DOM doesn't actually get lynched, CAD should be fine.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 03 Mar 2014, 10:30:02

Yeah, but he also hasn't voted for any known wolves either. Granted he probably would have if he had cast a vote on Day 3, but he didn't.

If a player's casted votes for a ton of unknowns instead of known wolves, it's reasonable to assume that those players are humans and that he is a wolf. Those unknowns are 75% likely to be humans before any reveals, after all.

twdog wrote:lol ... yeah, the question all right. I think next time I'm a wolf and rekard is human, I'm going to argue that we leave him alive for as long as possible. The humans will lynch him all on their own without us having to push it.

There's immense risk in doing that. We're pretty good about giving human-rekard time to get a feel for the game and start making reads before we lynch him, and human-rekard is terrifyingly accurate once he's comfortable enough to start pushing players. If you leave him alive and he hits 2 wolves in a row, you have to maul him anyway but now you're down 2 wolves.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Ozymandias » 03 Mar 2014, 11:36:21

Hellheart wrote:If a player's casted votes for a ton of unknowns instead of known wolves, it's reasonable to assume that those players are humans and that he is a wolf. Those unknowns are 75% likely to be humans before any reveals, after all.

That's a silly argument.

If a player has four unknown votes, each of which is 75% likely to be a Wolf, then the probability that all four players are Human is only 32%. So assuming that they're all Human would be incredibly foolish.

Anyway, I doubt that anyone in the Day thread is going to argue that CAD's record (1 known Human vote, 3 unknown votes, 2 missed votes) is somehow more suspicious than the voting records of ICB (FIVE known Human votes, 1 known Wolf vote) or That PJ (FOUR known Human votes, 2 unknown votes).

btw, what makes ICB's record even more damning is that all of the Humans he voted for died by lynch (Hellheart, dferrantino, Smirker, sphenodont), so it's not like the Wolves have been setting him up by mauling his vote targets.

Hellheart wrote:Yeah, but he also hasn't voted for any known wolves either. Granted he probably would have if he had cast a vote on Day 3, but he didn't.

The Day 3 votes for Wolves are irrelevant in terms of analysis, because the Humans are now too far away from that day to figure out that the Wolves viewed Admetus as a liability and wanted to lynch him instead of Visigoth.

Besides, if a player does get lynched for not voting for a Wolf on Day 3, it's more likely to be That PJ than CAD (based on above voting record).

So I think there are really only four known votes on Confirmed Wolves of consequence:

(1) DOM voting for Visigoth on Day 1 (which thanks to last game is actually making DOM look more suspicious!)

(2) Meta4 voting for Admetus on Day 4

(3) Ryvvn voting for Admetus on Day 4

(4) rekard voting for Admetus on Day 4 (which I agree was done in a very sketchy way that unfortunately for the Humans no one seems to be paying attention to)

So I think Meta4 is the only Human getting any Human cred for a Wolf vote up to this point.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby Hellheart » 03 Mar 2014, 11:55:22

That's a silly argument.

If a player has four unknown votes, each of which is 75% likely to be a Wolf, then the probability that all four players are Humans is only 32%. So assuming that they're all Human would be incredibly foolish.

Anyway, I doubt that anyone in the Day thread is going to argue that CAD's record (1 known Human vote, 3 unknown votes, 2 missed votes) is somehow more suspicious than the voting records of ICB (FIVE known Human votes, 1 known Wolf vote) or That PJ (FOUR known Human votes, 2 unknown votes).

CAD is not going to be lynched today and I was not making that argument. If CAD doesn't vote for rekard and he gets lynched today, however, then CAD is in serious trouble because the most recent votes always have more weight and he hasn't voted for known wolves. In that situation, it's a case where CAD has nothing to defend himself with, which in the light of new damning information is just as bad as having voted for known humans.

If ICB and That PJ push for rekard, then it doesn't matter how much worse their voting records are. At least they pushed for the wolf yesterday. Same with Rictus.

EDIT: Although getting sidetracked with fuzzmz is not helping. That's a longshot if there ever was one and is not worth pursuing with 3 wolves still alive.
Last edited by Hellheart on 03 Mar 2014, 12:01:26, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Torture Cubicle 3

Postby FurinMirado » 03 Mar 2014, 11:59:06

Uh oh, fuzzmz has voted Rictus instead of ICB which has raised some red flags. Seeing as voting for ICB would break the current tie. I wonder if they'll vote fuzzmz today to see if he's a Wolf trying to avoid voting for Wolf ICB.


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