Day 5 - Turmoil

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Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby dferrantino » 27 Mar 2014, 19:17:44

When you woke up the next morning, the house was empty. No more books, no more furniture, no more decorations, no more food.

His voice echoed through your heads, "This is what happens when you question me. You're on your own today. Do it again and I may just leave you all here to rot."

Panic set in, and then chaos broke out. A quarrel started in the corner, a scream was heard, and suddenly, the projector turned on. Oddly, it was this very moment. Zark stood, clutching a knife plunged into his chest by an angry mob. He collapsed to the floor, groaned his last, and disappeared.

7-Zark-7 - Lynched - Human

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby stigmata » 27 Mar 2014, 20:37:28

OOC: Shit, I missed another day. Sorry, guys. :(

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Mister E. Meat » 28 Mar 2014, 01:37:47

Noooooo, not Zark!

Who will keep me in liquor so I can keep have these wonderful visions? Although that little bottle does whisper, "Drink Me!" at the most unopportune times. Can't you see I'm in the middle of a trial?

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Nitestorm » 28 Mar 2014, 05:29:49

Oops, sorry I missed a day. In any case, let us put a random vote on Meta4, for obvious non-obvious reasons.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 28 Mar 2014, 06:15:20

Okaros wrote:Sorry about making your head the price when Zark came to try and buy rekard's head. I needed something to gauge how badly he wanted rekard dead, and I was fairly sure you were working closely with him, so I thought it would be a nice blood-for-blood sort of thing. With his demise, my interest in your death is gone as well.

No "Zark was a wolf or trending wolf". No rationale for "lynching Zark forces I or my allies to become non-dominant". Just "I needed something" - purely selfish, just like the wolfiest of wolves. Why did you need that, Okaros? Satisfying your petty curiosity, or figuring out how you could resolve yourself as a wolf? I don't see how that information is possibly of benefit to pushing people to humanity.

See, there's this box. Inside that box is a cat. That cat has a double-barreled shotgun, but only one barrel is loaded. Now, if you put Okaros in that box with the cat, the question stands: Can a cat with no opposable thumbs fire a shotgun? Is the first barrel or the second barrel loaded? Is the shotgun even pointing toward Okaros? I'm pretty sure the answer is that the cat can do whatever the hell it feels like, but let's find out.

Vig-strike: Okaros

And since I trust cats only marginally more than I do wolves,
Lynch vote: Okaros

And despite dfer trying to tell us that there are 19 living players :D we're really down to 15, of which 4 are dead, so 3 & 8. We can afford two more mis-lynches, three if the vig hits (two if the vig misses, so vig away). If you're in danger of getting lynched - and you're still a valid seer - you probably want to start sharing results. At some point, someone's going to resolve as seer. If the only results you communicate are through the PM-chain, they're not going to be trust-able (at least name a spokesperson - someone that you've seered human - and share your results with them).

"Hi - I know that dead guy was the seer, but before he died, he PM'd me and told me that he seered me as human." - don't think that's gonna fly.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby dferrantino » 28 Mar 2014, 06:18:35

DastardlyOldMan wrote:And despite dfer trying to tell us that there are 19 living players :D we're really down to 15

I have no idea what you're talking about.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Mister E. Meat » 28 Mar 2014, 06:33:59

DOM, I'm not sure why you'd both vig Okaros and vote to lynch him. If he is lynched today, then you've essentially wasted your attempt to resolve to a vig.

I'm fully on board with lynching him though. So let's do that.

Okaros

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 28 Mar 2014, 07:26:41

Mister E. Meat wrote:DOM, I'm not sure why you'd both vig Okaros and vote to lynch him. If he is lynched today, then you've essentially wasted your attempt to resolve to a vig.

I'm fully on board with lynching him though. So let's do that.

Okaros

I have about a 1:15 chance of being a vig right now (maybe slightly higher, but not considerably), so it's not a particularly horrible throwaway, and since I'm voting early (as opposed to between 21:55 and 22:00), I'm giving Okaros plenty of time to pull on his PM webs - I don't have particularly high expectations for the lynch going through.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Admetus » 28 Mar 2014, 07:30:12

I'm going to suggest Ryvvn. The Teflon Man seems to have escaped from his hot seat again.

I am also very interested to lynch a person who hasn't managed to get one of their mauls lynched. More than one such person must exist, or the Alpha would have already resolved. I've asked around a little bit, but nobody has any concrete information. It's an actual wolf hunt, and I think we'd all be well served to succeed at it.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby FurinMirado » 28 Mar 2014, 10:28:53

DastardlyOldMan is the Alpha Wolf.

No I'm not a potential Slayer Seer. I'm not even a spokesman for one. I'm saying he is a Wolf because his posting today has been so suspicious. I believe he is overtly moving against someone he knows to be a threat. If he succeeds then they're one step closer to victory. If he fails, he gets to claim that Okaros pulled strings to save himself which will make more people vote for Okaros tomorrow. Of course this could completely backfire, resulting in his lynch. In that case 4 Humans die when he resolves as the Alpha.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Mister E. Meat » 28 Mar 2014, 11:03:30

FurinMirado wrote:DastardlyOldMan is the Alpha Wolf.

No I'm not a potential Slayer Seer. I'm not even a spokesman for one. I'm saying he is a Wolf because his posting today has been so suspicious. I believe he is overtly moving against someone he knows to be a threat. If he succeeds then they're one step closer to victory. If he fails, he gets to claim that Okaros pulled strings to save himself which will make more people vote for Okaros tomorrow. Of course this could completely backfire, resulting in his lynch. In that case 4 Humans die when he resolves as the Alpha.

I don't believe this to be true. If it were, then we'd be seeing some deaths. Now if you want to say he's potential alpha, then I can agree with that but I think most of are are still potential alpha at this stage in the game.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 28 Mar 2014, 11:48:29

Mister E. Meat wrote:I don't believe this to be true. If it were, then we'd be seeing some deaths. Now if you want to say he's potential alpha, then I can agree with that but I think most of are are still potential alpha at this stage in the game.

I think Furin was being tongue-in-cheek there in response to my tongue-in-cheek "OMG that's so wolfy posts" for most of this game (when there aren't any clearly defined wolves, so there can't really be wolfy posts).

I mean, c'mon:
I believe he is overtly moving against someone he knows to be a threat.

Furin's smarter than to post something like that seriously. Okaros did threaten me (and then apologized for it, of course, because gosh), and I'm being overt about moving against him because he threatened me. I mean, this is pretty much what I said in my post. Furin paraphrased it back with "dark connotations".

If there was some other way I was going to react to "sorry we threatened you in order to backstab your ally, but I wanted needed to see him dance" then people haven't been playing with me very long. See: Ravebomb as Princess Luna for an example of my intense willingness to succumb to blatant extortion attempts. Furin's been around long enough to know better than that.
If he succeeds then they're one step closer to victory.

Ooooh, the nebulous "they". They're out to get you; again, this is just fear-mongering, which is Furin providing some level of justification for the whole post instead of coming out and just saying "Okaros and I are working together so I'm going to vote the other way." which wouldn't have been nearly as convincing to the casual reader.
Of course this could completely backfire, resulting in his lynch. In that case 4 Humans die when he resolves as the Alpha.

Scary!! Of course, 4 Humans die when *anyone* resolves as the Alpha. I'm not sure how that's specific to me? If there's a potential Alpha out there voting "No Maul" every night because "Can't we all just get along?", would you go ahead and come out now? This is just more fearmongering.

MEM, I don't agree that most people are still potential alpha's at this point - with three days worth of lynches behind mauls, the field should be getting narrower. I believe that what Furin's insinuating is that I'm still in the running, but since he's got zilch to back that up with (because I'm smart enough *not* to feed that information into the PM web), he's just reaching.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Mister E. Meat » 28 Mar 2014, 11:55:19

You know what, it's likely that the Alpha is going to resolve soon and even though it's unlikely that I'm the vigilante
Image
PEW PEW PEW FurinMurado you've been lasered or masered or tasered or razored or something-erred in the game.

((Potential vig shot))

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby FurinMirado » 28 Mar 2014, 12:11:05

Mister E. Meat wrote:
FurinMirado wrote:DastardlyOldMan is the Alpha Wolf.

No I'm not a potential Slayer Seer. I'm not even a spokesman for one. I'm saying he is a Wolf because his posting today has been so suspicious. I believe he is overtly moving against someone he knows to be a threat. If he succeeds then they're one step closer to victory. If he fails, he gets to claim that Okaros pulled strings to save himself which will make more people vote for Okaros tomorrow. Of course this could completely backfire, resulting in his lynch. In that case 4 Humans die when he resolves as the Alpha.

I don't believe this to be true. If it were, then we'd be seeing some deaths. Now if you want to say he's potential alpha, then I can agree with that but I think most of are are still potential alpha at this stage in the game.

Semantics. "Player X is the Alpha Wolf" sounds better and is more attention-grabbing than "Player X will likely resolve as the Alpha Wolf since his behavior would indicate he has a high (likely the highest) percentage of Wolf."

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Admetus » 28 Mar 2014, 12:18:53

Eh, Zark told me he was working with DOM earlier in the game, so I'm willing to believe DOM's reaction to Okaros is on the level.

Looks like the votes so far are:

Okaros -2- DastardlyOldMan, MEM
Meta4 - Nitestorm
Ryvvn - Admetus
DastardlyOldMan - FurinMirado

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby FurinMirado » 28 Mar 2014, 12:39:14

You're really not helping your case DOM. Yeah, I posted that based on a strong hunch but also to see reactions. You response is a classic Wolf over-reaction. One vote on you and you move quickly to discredit every possible sentence.

Mister E. Meat's reaction is hard to read. He has certainly aligned himself with DOM although this does not mean he is a Wolf. Plus the Futurama GIF actually made me laugh. :lol:

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Meta4 » 28 Mar 2014, 12:39:51

Who is DastardlyOldMan?
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Mister E. Meat » 28 Mar 2014, 12:41:22

Admetus wrote:Eh, Zark told me he was working with DOM earlier in the game, so I'm willing to believe DOM's reaction to Okaros is on the level.

Pretty much this too.

Of course, you have to be more wary in this game than in any other because alliances and desired outcomes can change overnight.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 12:58:24

FurinMirado wrote:You're really not helping your case DOM. Yeah, I posted that based on a strong hunch but also to see reactions. You response is a classic Wolf over-reaction. One vote on you and you move quickly to discredit every possible sentence.

Hey that's not fair. Why just yesterday I read a similarly lengthy and logical post by...uhhh...well the day before yesterday a detailed case was presented by...no wait, that didn't happen either. Okay okay, how about this: the Dastardly Old Man was too busy writing his perverted romance novels to devote the necessary time to a lengthy and complete post. He would have done this every day so far if his filth wasn't so popular.

Admetus wrote:Eh, Zark told me he was working with DOM earlier in the game, so I'm willing to believe DOM's reaction to Okaros is on the level.

So...you're okay with him because he made a deal with the devil. Meanwhile, I make an -inator that makes a person want to clean up the place and Perry the Platypus shows up to ruin my plan and destroy my -inator.

Maybe I'm just not being evil enough.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 28 Mar 2014, 13:00:35

FurinMirado wrote:You're really not helping your case DOM. Yeah, I posted that based on a strong hunch but also to see reactions. You response is a classic Wolf over-reaction. One vote on you and you move quickly to discredit every possible sentence.

Mister E. Meat's reaction is hard to read. He has certainly aligned himself with DOM although this does not mean he is a Wolf. Plus the Futurama GIF actually made me laugh. :lol:

OK - again, given that I've been making fun of the fact that there can't be wolfy posts in a game without wolves for the last four days, your post about me being wolfy seemed tongue-in-cheek, but I guess you were serious about it. So, you had a light tone-read, realized that you weren't going to convince anyone with it, and then used fairly obvious base fear-mongering tactics to try to sell it.

"DOM is triggering my gut as a wolf." would have been enough. I'm going to argue that your over-sell of the tone read is more wolfy than my (admittedly belligerent - but it *was* kind of fun picking that apart) defense of your over-sell of the tone-read.

And I'm still reading everything you write as "Okaros and I are allies, and I don't want him lynched, so I'm defending Okaros by attacking DOM's attack of Okaros."

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 13:07:25

Okay, okay, I can see that nobody cares about what I have to say. I'll just...go back to my room and play with my -inators, and pretend that some people appreciate my work but are too afraid of Perry the Platypus to say anything.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby rekard » 28 Mar 2014, 14:19:41

Technically every post here can be wolfy as it can reveal a back stab, a hidden alliance or just mere messing up of the people.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Aldax » 28 Mar 2014, 14:24:31

Sorry about the delay, what did I miss?

We...might have killed 2 humans

You WHA... - Unfortunately, yes

Well, there's nothing we can do now. I'll just try to think who to lynch next

Ok - Ok
Moral of the story: Never self-vig. - rekard

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby sphenodont » 28 Mar 2014, 15:27:56

DastardlyOldMan wrote:At some point, someone's going to resolve as seer. If the only results you communicate are through the PM-chain, they're not going to be trust-able (at least name a spokesperson - someone that you've seered human - and share your results with them).

"Hi - I know that dead guy was the seer, but before he died, he PM'd me and told me that he seered me as human." - don't think that's gonna fly.


If you really want us to start playing that game, well... I'm still an eligble seer and the wolfiest wolf I've seen here has been you, DOM. And from what I've gathered, at least three other people have seen you as such. Zark was campaigning long and hard for your survival, so I don't know if you were snowing him or if the odds just didn't work in his favor, but Furin's got the right of it. You're our best shot at nailing the alpha wolf.

I'm pretty sure you've mauled me, so if you do resolve as alpha, I'm signing my own death certificate, but there it is.

DastardlyOldMan

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 28 Mar 2014, 16:13:45

To note on what sphenodont isn't saying, since a lot of you may not "get" quantum:

If you seer a wolf, your odds of being the seer just dropped dramatically. Seers in quantum are really good at confirming humans once they resolve, but they're absolute crap for finding wolves. Once you seer a wolf, you've simply removed yourself from probable-seerdom. Those seers who consistently get back human are the most-viable seers.

Sphenodont ought to know this, but quantum catches people, so I don't know if he's lying about it intentionally (I'm fairly certain he's allied with Okaros via 7z7's notes to me and last night's voting record) or just missing the point of quantum. But hey - don't take my word for it, listen to the master's musings from the last run of it.

dferrantino wrote:The reality of all of this, though, is that it's entirely a red herring. The players most convinced that their visions are correct are the players who are least likely to be the Seer, when realistically people should be looking to the players who've a) missed visions and b) only seen Humans.

dferrantino wrote:If your seer has seen 2 wolves already, chances are pretty good that he's not going to end up as the seer.

Now, is there still a 5% chance of sphenodont being the seer? Sure, and that *is* what happened last game, but it changed the numbers of everyone else drastically - 50/50 human/wolves became 100% confirmed, 80% humans became insta-wolves - everyone will *know* when that happens. Three people seered me? Their seer percentage combined is probably lower than mine. Any of them have a second wolf? Go ahead and throw those results right the fuck out.

I want seer results before people go down because of the 5% thing, but that doesn't mean that any of them are actually accurate - I'm just trying to make sure we cover the incidental resolving.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby DastardlyOldMan » 28 Mar 2014, 16:22:15

One other note afore I run out the door and let the various PM alliances have their way:

Based on my own dead-percentage, the people lynching me are *not* doing so because they've mauled me. In other words, they're not trying to use me to remove themselves as dominant and become more human. Given that these same people didn't lynch Zark in order to remove themselves from dominant, they will be much more likely to be wolves tomorrow.

Nitestorm as my spokesperson, with Aldax as a backup.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby sphenodont » 28 Mar 2014, 16:26:51

I'm not claiming to have seen multiple wolves, I'm claiming multiple people have seen a particular player as a wolf.

I'll admit that I could be wrong, but it's not due to deception. I still don't get quantum, which irks me, because statistics should be my thing, but after wrestling with it in past games, I'm mostly playing by gut and intuition. And if multiple still-viable seers have seen one particular player as a wolf, odds are decent that player is a wolf.

I will note that you haven't voted for me, which to me means that you've mauled me and can't afford to have me lynched if you want to resolve wolf. But you did vote yesterday for rekard, even after your mass-seer experiment likely drove him extremely human. The pieces all fit, to me.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby dferrantino » 28 Mar 2014, 16:29:10

Vote Totals:
DastardlyOldMan - 3 - FurinMirado, Meta4, sphenodont
Okaros - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Mister E. Meat
Meta4 - 1 - Nitestorm
Ryvvn - 1 - Admetus

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 17:08:32

(( Are Seer results always a simple random roll using 25% wolf/75% human, or are they determined with a random roll using the target's wolf/human percentage at the time of the vision across some subset of the total game states? ))

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Okaros » 28 Mar 2014, 18:32:27

Given the options available, I will vote for DOM.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 18:51:51

I'd better get my vote off and hide before rekard shows up with the Finger of Doom.

After carefully considering all of the arguments from a completely unrelated television segment, I have conclusively determined that Dastardly Old Men are all perverted and would have already harmed Vanessa if I wasn't keeping such a close eye on her.

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby rekard » 28 Mar 2014, 18:53:56

Agh forgiot to vote.. Voting Ryvvn

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby sphenodont » 28 Mar 2014, 18:59:16

DastardlyOldMan wrote:Nitestorm as my spokesperson, with Aldax as a backup.


HH and Aldax know my seerings (as do the people I seered human).

Aldax has all the power!!! :flail:

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby Ryvvn » 28 Mar 2014, 18:59:41

We bid you good night, you sweet young thing DastardlyOldMan

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Re: Day 5 - Turmoil

Postby dferrantino » 28 Mar 2014, 19:04:41

PMs are now banned


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