Day 6 - Placeholder

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Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby dferrantino » 28 Mar 2014, 19:05:01

As you stood in the auditorium, there came a blinding flash of light. Suddenly, you were right where you remembered: in the great hall of a lavish mansion.

The garish man appeared at the end of the hall, "Now, I hope you've gotten that out of your systems. From here on we do it my way. Votes. Now."

The hat was quickly passed around, shuffled through, and tallied.

"DastardlyOldMan, here."

DastardlyOldMan stood up and paused, fully expecting the lights to go out and to disappear. After a few seconds, he walked up to the man. The man shook his hand, whispered a few words, and let him out of the room.

"Now, the rest of you will stay in here for as long as I see fit. You've had enough privacy for one stay."

"Oh, right. He was human, by the way. Good job."

DastardlyOldMan - Lynched - Human

Vote Totals:
DastardlyOldMan - 6 - FurinMirado, Meta4, sphenodont, Okaros, Hellheart, Ryvvn
Okaros - 2 - DastardlyOldMan, Mister E. Meat
Ryvvn - 2 - Admetus, rekard
Meta4 - 1 - Nitestorm

PMs are now banned.

There are currently 8 living players, 3 of whom are wolves.

The day will end on Sunday night.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 19:05:46

(( :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: :flail: ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Ryvvn » 28 Mar 2014, 19:09:11

does that mean we're all one super alliance now?

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 19:16:14

It means that my evil plan to take over the ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA has finally succeeded and you must now SEND ALL OF YOUR PM'S THROUGH ME!

From now on, they will be abbreviated DM, for "Doofenshmirtz Messages," and they will be delivered at the cost of $0.50 per character!

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 28 Mar 2014, 20:06:37

Son of a dang nabbit Jiminy Cricket.

I was playing a game until my lady came in to interrupt me and I noticed the time was well after deadline. And there were definitely things I wanted to get done, and of course I also missed my seer.

I think the jump in my dead % was actually because a number of potential alphas invalidated with that DOM lynch. Which may be an amusing development, because: There are 14 people, but really 5 of them are already dead. That means it's 3 wolves 6 humans, so we can only miss one lynch unless the vigilante makes good.

It may be time to put some cards on the table. I thought I might have a plan to catch a potential Alpha yesterday, but then I just wasn't around to take care of it, and it's too late now. Anyone have any thoughts? Or are we just going to random our way to the end?

-edit-
dferrantino edited to say there are only 8 alive now, not 9. 14 - 5 mauls = 9 still, unless the player list isn't right. Or except in case of vig, but that is not resolved yet...
Last edited by Admetus on 28 Mar 2014, 22:49:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 28 Mar 2014, 20:36:22

Your plan is the best option I'm aware of so far, Admetus, but I'd prefer to wait until later in the weekend before reaching a formal decision. A better option could present itself (though I think that's unlikely at the moment).
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 21:02:12

(( I was mauled by at least one potential alpha yesterday - most likely only one. And there are more than a few alpha candidates unless the percentages are really warped.

But unless somebody slipped, I doubt that piece of information is going to result in much. Given the incredibly sparse information we have available, and considering that we can't share all of that, I'm not sure if we can find anything better than that plan. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 28 Mar 2014, 21:02:40, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 28 Mar 2014, 21:02:36

My plan was only good for yesterday, because of details I can't go into over an open comm line. It was a really crappy time to go AWOL.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 22:00:30

(( Ugh, I have to start thinking and trying to make sound game decisions instead of having fun. This is like the worst game ever! :P

Perhaps I was a little fatalistic. I don't know shit about quantum so I'm not about to propose a strategy, but I can outline at least some of the potential resources at our disposal.

1) The most obvious tool comes from the Seer visions. They obviously aren't determinate, although they may be better than random.

It is possible - albeit very unlikely - that if everybody shared their Seer visions we could force the Seer to resolve with one death. The biggest problem with this is that it requires full playerbase participation, which can only be partially mitigated if people have been sharing their vision lists. The other problem is that people with a high wolf percentage could outright lie about their visions.

It's still worth at least a look, because forcing the Seer to resolve will take a ton of uncertainty out of this game, and potentially nab a wolf in the process.

2) Alliances were made, and groups of players have been working together - or secretly against each other - for much of the game. A full, or nearly full, chart of alliances could highlight one or two alliances that are more likely to angle for a wolf win than the others. This is both very difficult and highly subjective, but again it's better than nothing.

3) I imagine that we can force the Vig to resolve if everyone took shots. I would prefer that they do so after they attempted a Vigilante shot, rather than before, but you're changing the subject. Because it's basically a free extra chance at bagging a wolf, we should identify a consensus Vig target and hope he resolves as a wolf. We can also use this to force the Seer to resolve if we get impossibly lucky and can do so with one death.

Am I missing anything else that could make a difference and isn't based entirely on the honor system? ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 28 Mar 2014, 22:08:08, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 28 Mar 2014, 22:07:46

Hellheart wrote:(( Am I missing anything else that could make a difference and isn't based entirely on the honor system? ))


Yes you are: We are lynch-or-lose right now, per the edited update from our illustrious GM. Thus if we lynch someone to force the seer to resolve it will have to be someone that flips wolf anyway.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 22:10:37

Okaros wrote:
Hellheart wrote:(( Am I missing anything else that could make a difference and isn't based entirely on the honor system? ))


Yes you are: We are lynch-or-lose right now, per the edited update from our illustrious GM. Thus if we lynch someone to force the seer to resolve it will have to be someone that flips wolf anyway.

(( I edited my post - we can use the Vig to force the Seer to resolve if we get that ridiculously lucky. But yeah, it'd have to resolve in one death either way.

The only way we can even do that is if most of the players are already invalid Seers, and we can shoot a possible Seer such that either his faction reveal chooses between the only two remaining eligible Seers, or his faction reveal could potentially invalidate all of the remaining potential Seers save one. In the latter case, the target needs to have a damn high chance to resolve as a wolf to be worth that sort of risk. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 28 Mar 2014, 22:17:26

MEM has a pending vig shot on Furin. Unless MEM has secretly resolved, our only option for forcibly resolving the vig is for every eligible vig to shoot Furin.

We could theoretically forcibly resolve the vig by having a large enough combination of vigs and mauls on one person too, but without perfect knowledge of the state table I don't think we can do that except by accident.


Edit: "Every eligible vig" would also have to include Furin if he's still eligible as well. Somehow I don't think he'll agree to vig himself. :lol:
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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 22:22:01

Okaros wrote:MEM has a pending vig shot on Furin. Unless MEM has secretly resolved, our only option for forcibly resolving the vig is for every eligible vig to shoot Furin.

We could theoretically forcibly resolve the vig by having a large enough combination of vigs and mauls on one person too, but without perfect knowledge of the state table I don't think we can do that except by accident.


Edit: "Every eligible vig" would also have to include Furin if he's still eligible as well. Somehow I don't think he'll agree to vig himself. :lol:

(( Only a wolf would be unwilling to Vig himself to prevent a wolf win! The plan is flawless!

...So even if everyone takes a Vig shot, it only resolves on the death of the Vigilante? I guess that makes sense.

EDIT: OH I see why. Some people are alive in some game states and dead in others, so if they resolve as the Vig in any of the former game states it's impossible to determine who the Vig will be until the mauls have been resolved. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 28 Mar 2014, 22:29:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 28 Mar 2014, 22:28:25

Hellheart wrote:(( Only a wolf would be unwilling to Vig himself to prevent a wolf win! The plan is flawless!

...So even if everyone takes a Vig shot, it only resolves on the death of the Vigilante? I guess that makes sense. ))


Maybe dferr would randomly determine whose shot is valid once every possible vig fired, but we're again stuck with the "including the victim" part of the equation unless we pick MEM or someone who's been vig-invalidated.
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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 22:30:56

Okaros wrote:
Hellheart wrote:(( Only a wolf would be unwilling to Vig himself to prevent a wolf win! The plan is flawless!

...So even if everyone takes a Vig shot, it only resolves on the death of the Vigilante? I guess that makes sense. ))


Maybe dferr would randomly determine whose shot is valid once every possible vig fired, but we're again stuck with the "including the victim" part of the equation unless we pick MEM or someone's been vig-invalidated.

(( I just realized that the mauls would need to also resolve first. That's irritating in this situation.

rekard has the only invalidated Vig, I think, from his very early shot on Zark. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 28 Mar 2014, 22:43:56

Hellheart wrote:(( I just realized that the mauls would need to also resolve first. That's irritating in this situation.

rekard has the only invalidated Vig, I think, from his very early shot on Zark. ))


Yes, it's irritating. And I agree, rekard looks like the only potentially-living person that fits the invalidated-vig state.

I think we're probably stuck with at least partial RNG today, so lynching a high-probability wolf and hoping for a positive result is probably our best chance to earn another day and (hopefully) a collapse of probabilities that would lead to seer/vig/etc... resolution and the ability for someone to completely solve the state-puzzle.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 28 Mar 2014, 22:52:52

I didn't see the lynch or lose warning on the edited post until Hellheart mentioned it.

That math (14 - 5 mauls = 9) seems odd to me unless the vigilante's shot is counted in there. But the vigilante isn't resolved yet, and nobody died, and even still it's not certain the victim was a human. Is the vigilante guaranteed to have shot?

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 22:54:13

Oh look, Perry the Platypus has been writing on a piece of paper this whole time. I know what you're thinking: he's a platypus, and they have no opposable thumbs, so how could he possibly write. You see, he holds the pencil in his beak and...well, I'll admit it's not very legible and he's a horrible speller, but beggars can't be choosers. Hold on, he just stopped, maybe he's solved the game! Let me see that paper, Perry the Platypus.

What!? "Last Will and Testament?" Perry the Platypus has just given up, we're all doomed! DOOMED, I tell you!
Last edited by Hellheart on 28 Mar 2014, 22:55:34, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 28 Mar 2014, 22:55:18

Admetus wrote:I didn't see the lynch or lose warning on the edited post until Hellheart mentioned it.

That math (14 - 5 mauls = 9) seems odd to me unless the vigilante's shot is counted in there. But the vigilante isn't resolved yet, and nobody died, and even still it's not certain the victim was a human. Is the vigilante guaranteed to have shot?


Speculation: We have multiple WoG'able candidates and dferr has elected to quantumly WoG one of them. Whoever resolves as being WoG'd turns up human. Thus our current state of affairs is extra tricky.
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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Ryvvn » 28 Mar 2014, 23:05:06

To those I was in PM communication with yesterday, I still believe that thing I said.

To those involved but not included in yesterday's PMs, with 8 players remaining, we pretty much control the voting bloc today, especially if those involved in the PM have others they trust but have not yet revealed, so all we really need to do is agree among ourselves who should be lynched today.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby dferrantino » 28 Mar 2014, 23:37:08

Admetus wrote:I didn't see the lynch or lose warning on the edited post until Hellheart mentioned it.

That math (14 - 5 mauls = 9) seems odd to me unless the vigilante's shot is counted in there. But the vigilante isn't resolved yet, and nobody died, and even still it's not certain the victim was a human. Is the vigilante guaranteed to have shot?

You're right, I miscounted. However...

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby dferrantino » 28 Mar 2014, 23:38:03

The man walked back into the room.

"And another thing..."

He pointed at stigmata, who suddenly vanished.

stigmata - Wrath of God - Human

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 28 Mar 2014, 23:43:28

(( SELDOOOOOOOON!!

...wait no, wrong game. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby dferrantino » 28 Mar 2014, 23:46:47

Now it's lynch-or-lose.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby dferrantino » 29 Mar 2014, 00:00:19

Post-WoG PMs are out. You should all know approximately where you stand at the moment.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby dferrantino » 29 Mar 2014, 00:04:20

Ozy brings to my attention a good point: I have to resolve the Vig before I call the game. If you lynch a human tonight, there's a pretty good chance you've lost, but it's not 100%.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Ryvvn » 29 Mar 2014, 00:06:04

dferrantino wrote:Ozy brings to my attention a good point: I have to resolve the Vig before I call the game. If you lynch a human tonight, there's a pretty good chance you've lost, but it's not 100%.

Sounds like everyone should most definitely be firing their vig today then, given the randomness of this game, seems to me that's pretty much a necessity(?)

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 00:12:36

Ryvvn wrote:
dferrantino wrote:Ozy brings to my attention a good point: I have to resolve the Vig before I call the game. If you lynch a human tonight, there's a pretty good chance you've lost, but it's not 100%.

Sounds like everyone should most definitely be firing their vig today then, given the randomness of this game, seems to me that's pretty much a necessity(?)

(( Random/Uncoordinated Vigs are still -EV, though; we should have a consensus target list first. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 00:14:42

(( Hooooly crap. That WoG changes things quite a bit; looks like Stigmata could have resolved as the alpha. If anybody knows who mauled me last night, there is a...let's call it "nontrivial" chance that person will resolve as the Alpha.

Also, assuming I didn't get the wrong PM, I'm no longer eligible for Seer. None of my visions are dead. I have no fucking idea what that means.

Visions:

Night 0: rekard = wolf
Night 1: sphenodont = human
Night 2: FurinMirado = human
Night 3: Admetus = human
Night 4: Okaros = human
Night 5: Ryvvn = human

))
Last edited by Hellheart on 29 Mar 2014, 00:23:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 00:21:31

(( Consolidated above ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby That PJ » 29 Mar 2014, 07:11:48

What... the hell... did I miss?

Sorry, everyone. Last night got shot to hell in offline life, and I missed all my actions--lynch, maul, seer, everything. :( I'm really sorry about that. Trying to catch up now, but what I've been able to gather is that we're only public posting now, here, correct?
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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 29 Mar 2014, 07:42:43

Admetus - In regards to your plan from yesterday, were you saying we can't repeat it today or that results it gathered yesterday would have been rendered a waste as a result of last night/today?

spheno - You once mentioned a particular feeling to me. Do you still have that feeling?
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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Mar 2014, 08:03:00

Well that's it. I'm still mostly Human but I am definitely not a Seer. I Seer'd necklessone as Wolf on night 0. Since that came true I thought I might be fairly high in the running. Then I Seer'd DOM as Wolf and went for it. It helped that multiple other potential Slayers Seers also saw him as Wolf. I'm really disappointed that he didn't resolve that way.


But, that means multiple potentials have resolved as non-Seer. Coupled with the fact that THIS IS OUR LAST CHANCE AS HUMANS TO NOT LOSE I am asking for all remaining potential Seers to come out today with all of the information you have gathered. Even if you've only found Humans we may be able to use this information to check some people off of the list.


Also, if I'm the Vigilante then my shot on stigmata has been wasted due to the WoG.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 29 Mar 2014, 09:16:36

Hellheart wrote:Hooooly crap. That WoG changes things quite a bit; looks like Stigmata could have resolved as the alpha. If anybody knows who mauled me last night, there is a...let's call it "nontrivial" chance that person will resolve as the Alpha.

Also, assuming I didn't get the wrong PM, I'm no longer eligible for Seer. None of my visions are dead. I have no fucking idea what that means.

Visions:

I'm not a seer because Stigmata was Wolf in my visions, so that died last night.

Hellheart, I was coming close to calling you out for being a player trying to resolve wolf, because I figured I must be right that some of the potential alphas invalidated on DOM. My death percentage jumped when he was lynched, and I don't think it was because of people mauling me, I believe it's because the potentials that hadn't mauled me invalidated. This was sort of confirmed with Stigmata's WOG -- he came up human and I got more dead. It was enough to be preeetty suggestive. If you didn't see a similar spike in deadness, it could be because you were going to be a wolf, and in those scenarios, losing a few Alpha-eligible people wouldn't change much for you.

But it sounds like you saw the same little spike when Stigmata got WoG'd, which makes me want to feel a bit better about you.

For your visions, assuming you are telling the truth, it would mean that either someone fully resolved opposite your visions OR you have all of the candidates for a position wrong. For rekard, he would have to be the seer in order to totally resolve human. Nobody can really shed the chance of being a wolf totally except the vig or Seer, and he can't be the Vigilante. For the humans, it would have to be the case that every current Alpha candidate was on your list as human, which means no matter how it resolves, you'd be wrong. The fact that you needed someone else to explain that is very un-Hellheart. It's exactly the sort of way I might expect someone to introduce false information.

You weren't very much on my radar before, but I'm starting to think it's possible.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 29 Mar 2014, 09:23:15

Okaros wrote:Admetus - In regards to your plan from yesterday, were you saying we can't repeat it today or that results it gathered yesterday would have been rendered a waste as a result of last night/today?

I'm saying that according to what I've been told, the target invalidated yesterday. And also, in lynch-or-lose, any potential Alphas are not going to be interested in invalidating at all. I sure as heck wouldn't want to spend my last day becoming a lower wolf % in this game.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 29 Mar 2014, 09:42:48

dferrantino wrote:Ozy brings to my attention a good point: I have to resolve the Vig before I call the game. If you lynch a human tonight, there's a pretty good chance you've lost, but it's not 100%.



Does this mean that if we hit 3 wolves/3 humans the vig will forcibly resolve before the game is ended even if nobody's 100% vig, or that *if* the vig resolves as a result of normal lynch/maul/seer fallout that it will fire before game-end is considered?
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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 29 Mar 2014, 09:43:47

Admetus wrote:I'm saying that according to what I've been told, the target invalidated yesterday. And also, in lynch-or-lose, any potential Alphas are not going to be interested in invalidating at all. I sure as heck wouldn't want to spend my last day becoming a lower wolf % in this game.


Thank you, that helps.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 10:34:53

Admetus wrote:The fact that you needed someone else to explain that is very un-Hellheart. It's exactly the sort of way I might expect someone to introduce false information.

You weren't very much on my radar before, but I'm starting to think it's possible.

(( If I wanted to contribute false information, I could've started wildly guessing at what it meant.

I know, generally speaking, what losing Seer eligibility means for me. I have no idea what that means with respect to the invalidated game states - meaning, I don't know what combination of Seers, mauls, whatever could force me to lose eligibility like that. I didn't think of the "all potential Alphas returned Human visions" explanation - I was envisioning some crazy set of circumstances that eventually run into a paradox for a single player. Rekard resolving as Seer to invalidate my Seer chance sounds either really unlikely or a complete paradox, but having every possible alpha on my Seer list seems equally unlikely (unless the number of possible alphas is small. Which I'm beginning to believe is certainly the case if you also had a big jump in dead %). It feels significant or extreme enough that it might help solve the puzzle, but I don't know how I could go about figuring that out even with all of the information.

I did maul you on the same day that I Seer'ed you - at the time I thought you were trying to resolve as a wolf because you hadn't sent me a PM all game, and mauling a likely wolf instead of a likely human would push me ever-so-slightly towards the human side (I think that's how it works). But I lost alpha eligibility with DOM's lynch, something that my alliance could confirm. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby That PJ » 29 Mar 2014, 11:14:41

I am still potentially a the Seer.

I am not eligible for Alpha. I haven't been since Rictus was eliminated (he was my night 1 Maul).

My Seer targets have been:
Night 0 - FurinMirado (Human)
Night 1 - Visigoth (Wolf)
Night 2 - rekard (Human)
Night 3 - Ryvvn (Human)
Night 4 - Okaros (Human)
Night 5 - N/A, because I missed everything :(

When stigmata was WoG'd, I experienced a slight drop in Death, and a small jump in Wolfiness. I am still very, very human. I'm not sure what that means except that stigmata was likely a wolf, and losing him means that others (myself included) are more likely to be wolves in his absence--also that I was probably one of his maul targets. Several of you still have me as a previous maul target.

What other information can I contribute to help us pin down a wolf?
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby dferrantino » 29 Mar 2014, 11:21:40

Okaros wrote:
dferrantino wrote:Ozy brings to my attention a good point: I have to resolve the Vig before I call the game. If you lynch a human tonight, there's a pretty good chance you've lost, but it's not 100%.



Does this mean that if we hit 3 wolves/3 humans the vig will forcibly resolve before the game is ended even if nobody's 100% vig, or that *if* the vig resolves as a result of normal lynch/maul/seer fallout that it will fire before game-end is considered?

If the lynch causes an Alpha to resolve (due to no others being eligible) then those deaths will be resolved normally, which means there's a chance the players mauled get resolved as Vigs.

If the lynch does not cause an Alpha to resolve, I will resolve the Vigilante shots immediately afterwards to see whether or not the game is over.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby FurinMirado » 29 Mar 2014, 11:30:00

Random placeholder vote on Ryvvn. I am going to be very busy this weekend and I'm not too sure I'll remember to vote before deadline.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 14:21:51

(( If the people here that understand Quantum agree that the only truly likely possibility for the Seer invalidation is "all remaining potential alphas are human Seer results," I can probably pick out the most likely ones. One of them had to maul me last night, after all.

If I end up doing that, anyone who knows whom I've been talking to will definitely know this is not a ploy. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Mister E. Meat » 29 Mar 2014, 18:09:28

I'm on my phone. Much more human now and much more dead after WOG. Still a seer candidate. I've seen two wolves, Okaros and rekard. I'd like to see one of them go since it's all I've got.

I played it more carefully this time around to try to keep my options open during the game since I messed up many times in quantum in the past. However, at this point in the game for me, there's no sense in a wolf push. Given that I pushed both Okaros and rekard already, I think you will recognize the truthiness of my statement.

rekard
Last edited by Mister E. Meat on 30 Mar 2014, 15:50:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 18:27:20

Mister E. Meat wrote:I'm on my phone. Much more human now and much more dead after WOG. Still a seer candidate. I've seen two wolves, Okaros and rekard. I'd like to see one of them go since it's all I've got.

I played it more carefully this time around to try to keep my options open during the game since I messed up many times in quantum in the past. However, at this point in the game for me, there's no sense in a wolf push. Given that I pushed both Okaros and rekard already, I think you will recognize the truthiness of my statement.

rekard

(( Okay, I know who one of the potential alphas is. But there's either 2 or 3 of them (assuming that the alphas invalidated my Seer), and we need at least 2 before I reveal who it is. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 19:16:36

(( I also want to point out that it's impossible for rekard to be an Alpha if I can't resolve as Seer. Unless you want to piece together a scenario where every game state in which I am the Seer and rekard is the alpha forces one of the other Human visions to ALSO be a wolf, AND every game state in which I am the Seer and rekard is NOT the alpha forces one of the other Human visions to resolve as alpha.

I'm hardly defending rekard here; I'm of the impression that he's been wolfing it up from the start of this game. But we need to resolve the alpha here if at all possible, and we have a Vig shot and a lynch to nail him.

If Admetus' speculation that my Seer was invalidated because all of the potential alphas returned as Human is the consensus, and there's no objection to a plan wherein we find one of the other alpha candidates and lynch one and Vig the other, then we can get to work trying to piece together who in the list may have mauled players that still have non-zero death percentages. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 29 Mar 2014, 20:20:44

Rekard told me before DOM's lynch that he had mauled DOM, so unless he was lying, he's not an Alpha.

I invalidated with Rictus's lynch, and was quite relieved at the time. Out of the rest of your list, I was in contact with Okaros extensively, and the others little to none. Okaros claimed he invalidated on the Zark lynch. I'd trust him... mostly. It was pretty clear he had a lot of irons in the fire this game, and the day after Zark died (yesterday), it was already looking pretty grim for the humans.

But this all doesn't answer the question of whether we can trust your list isn't made up.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 20:50:38

Admetus wrote:But this all doesn't answer the question of whether we can trust your list isn't made up.

(( That PJ knows most of that list. He was part of the alliance involving Zark, DOM...and me. I figure out of the few players who know that list, he's probably the least happy with me right now. Don't think he's unhappy enough to embrace a human loss over it, though.

Basic proof I was in DOM's alliance beyond that, although I don't think it's necessary unless That PJ doesn't come online at all: DOM's Seer visions (not in order): Zark, Nitestorm, Hellheart, That PJ, Ryvvn. All were Human.

The invalidated part you'll have to trust me on. But I'll be handing you a name I'm really only giving up because I don't want to lose. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 29 Mar 2014, 21:17:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 21:06:47

(( Of course, we both know your name is on that list. Is that the reason you're fighting this so hard? This is my first quantum game, PM's have been banned since last EOD, and I don't think any of us knew that PM's would be banned until they were. I feel like you're trying to manufacture doubt because you're worried about something. I can't imagine it would be that hard to confirm that you probably mauled Rictus before he was lynched.

Unless we run out of time, though, we don't want to rely on suspicion when it comes to identifying another potential alpha. Ideally we'd love to have a tally of whom each person on the list actually mauled, from the lion's mouth so to speak. But if somebody's gone through the trouble of charting alliances and relationships - and I would be amazed if we didn't have one such map between rekard, Okaros, and FurinMirado - it shouldn't be too hard to make an educated guess at where the mauls came from.

I'm going to move forward with this plan if either Admetus fully commits, OR another player who's familiar with quantum confirms that the most likely scenario is that my human Seer results contain all remaining potential alphas. ))

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 29 Mar 2014, 22:16:00

Hellheart wrote:alliance involving Zark, DOM...and me

I'm not really surprised by this revelation.

Of course, we both know your name is on that list. Is that the reason you're fighting this so hard?

I'm not fighting. I'm giving you my honest impression. It sounds preeeetty wolfy the way you presented your information. It looked too good to be true, and the "can anyone help me understand this" just made it worse.


And how do you propose to confirm who anyone mauled at any point? I wasn't sharing that information with anyone on the advice of the more veteran players, and it would be very "human" to mislead or outright lie.

Most importantly, the few remaining Alpha candidates will definitely not share any new accurate information.


I know this post is full of negativity, but it seemed necessary because there is woefully insufficient distrust apparent in your current plan. I have already shared a bunch of information in public here, and I will be available to continue to contribute if anything I've heard ends up being relevant.

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Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 22:21:50

(( Bottom of page filler post ))


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