Admetus wrote:It looked too good to be true, and the "can anyone help me understand this" just made it worse.
I can see why that would draw attention. If you have an alternative plan, you're free to bring it up at any time. The problem is, I don't think there really is any alternative plan other than "try to calculate some wolf percentages and pray"
And how do you propose to confirm who anyone mauled at any point? I wasn't sharing that information with anyone on the advice of the more veteran players, and it would be very "human" to mislead or outright lie.
Some alliances coordinated mauls so that either all of them or none of them would be invalidated as alpha. Select alliances, and select players within some other alliances, would only maul outside of that alliance. When we move away from alliances into PM-only or null contact relationships...If Player X, who has a non-zero death percentage, has had cooperative contact with Player Y and no contact with Player Z, then the logical assumption is that - for most Players Y, anyway - Player Z is more likely to have mauled Player X than Player Y.
Most importantly, the few remaining Alpha candidates will definitely not share any new accurate information.
Yes, they're keeping quiet, naturally. Too risky to talk. There are also allies of those candidates that may be reluctant to talk. That makes things a lot more difficult.
I know this post is full of negativity, but it seemed necessary because there is woefully insufficient distrust apparent in your current plan. I have already shared a bunch of information in public here, and I will be available to continue to contribute if anything I've heard ends up being relevant.
I want assistance in identifying and killing the potential alpha that mauled me, because a "nontrivial" chance of loss is too much to risk. In return, I will prove to the best of my ability that I know the identity of another potential alpha. If I freely share this proof, then I lose the leverage I may need to enlist the help of players who'd be content with one possible alpha.
In simpler terms: I'm not going to sacrifice the player I trust the most in this game for, at best, a 50% chance of having another day.