Day 6 - Placeholder

You're in it.
User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 22:42:04

Admetus wrote:It looked too good to be true, and the "can anyone help me understand this" just made it worse.

I can see why that would draw attention. If you have an alternative plan, you're free to bring it up at any time. The problem is, I don't think there really is any alternative plan other than "try to calculate some wolf percentages and pray"

And how do you propose to confirm who anyone mauled at any point? I wasn't sharing that information with anyone on the advice of the more veteran players, and it would be very "human" to mislead or outright lie.

Some alliances coordinated mauls so that either all of them or none of them would be invalidated as alpha. Select alliances, and select players within some other alliances, would only maul outside of that alliance. When we move away from alliances into PM-only or null contact relationships...If Player X, who has a non-zero death percentage, has had cooperative contact with Player Y and no contact with Player Z, then the logical assumption is that - for most Players Y, anyway - Player Z is more likely to have mauled Player X than Player Y.

Most importantly, the few remaining Alpha candidates will definitely not share any new accurate information.

Yes, they're keeping quiet, naturally. Too risky to talk. There are also allies of those candidates that may be reluctant to talk. That makes things a lot more difficult.

I know this post is full of negativity, but it seemed necessary because there is woefully insufficient distrust apparent in your current plan. I have already shared a bunch of information in public here, and I will be available to continue to contribute if anything I've heard ends up being relevant.

I want assistance in identifying and killing the potential alpha that mauled me, because a "nontrivial" chance of loss is too much to risk. In return, I will prove to the best of my ability that I know the identity of another potential alpha. If I freely share this proof, then I lose the leverage I may need to enlist the help of players who'd be content with one possible alpha.

In simpler terms: I'm not going to sacrifice the player I trust the most in this game for, at best, a 50% chance of having another day.

User avatar
rekard
Post Nympho
Post Nympho
Posts: 6328
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:27:18

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby rekard » 29 Mar 2014, 22:59:11

Hellheart, since your visions seem shifty, I think you need to post your maul list to better trust you.

If your seer list is true, then it means that all the alphas are contained in that seer list PLUS Hellheart. It's certainly wolfy suspicious that Hellheart is trying to go ahead with the theory of "Only the humans in my list can be alphas" so easily while not mentioning at all his own possibility of being the alpha, so convenient of him huh? I would say he would say he is nit alpha from the start at least.

Which is understandable since with the wolves likely winning the game, he would prefer to stay alive as a possible dominant alpha wolf. But yeah, probably Hellheart is steering things in hopes that he can be the alpha.

So yes, if Hellheart can't be a seer, then that means that he and his human seer results are the only possible alphas currently in the game.

As Admetus said, I can't be the alpha. I mauled DOM initially and he got lynched. So, MEM, your vote has to be changed, since me not being the alpha today makes me full human today in the least, and well makes humans lose, unless you MEM wants to be a winning wolf.

Who else lost his Alpha status? That should reduce the scope of who should we lynch today.

User avatar
rekard
Post Nympho
Post Nympho
Posts: 6328
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:27:18

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby rekard » 29 Mar 2014, 23:03:27

I just noticed that Hellheart said he lost the alpha possibility in one of his sentences with the DOM lynch. So disregard part of what I said. Although he mauled one ofhis alliance members. So much for trust there.

And Hellheart, if you want to win as a human, it doesn't matter at all that you trust a player. If he can be the alpha,then the non-alphas have to know.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 23:29:37

rekard wrote:And Hellheart, if you want to win as a human, it doesn't matter at all that you trust a player. If he can be the alpha,then the non-alphas have to know.

If he resolves as alpha and the wolves win, I would treat it as a shared victory; it would be a very Pyrrhic shared victory, but one nonetheless. If he's sacrificed and the other alpha hasn't been identified and targeted, then I still have the same chance of losing but now I've "rewarded" somebody who's earned my trust by tossing them away for no real gain. You guys gain far more from the reveal than I do. Hell, I arguably gain MORE by not revealing, since it encourages players to cooperate more closely with me in the future.

I just noticed that Hellheart said he lost the alpha possibility in one of his sentences with the DOM lynch. So disregard part of what I said. Although he mauled one ofhis alliance members. So much for trust there.

That wasn't my alliance. It was an alliance I happened to be in, but it was clearly an alliance I felt no affiliation with. I helped lynch two of its members, one of which I mauled beforehand.

I'm not giving any more than that because there are 3 players in that list that could potentially be the one I'm talking about, and you can't know for certain which one it is.

Out of the names on that list, the most likely to have mauled me is FurinMirado. But I don't know who he's allied with, who he's been talking to, what his goals might have been, and whether my noncommittal response to a PM may have prompted the maul attempt.
Last edited by Hellheart on 29 Mar 2014, 23:39:21, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Admetus
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 3756
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 13:43:55
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Birthday Boy
Location: Philadelphia, PA

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 29 Mar 2014, 23:39:02

The two parts of your post are kind of directly opposed to each other.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 23:44:27

Admetus wrote:The two parts of your post are kind of directly opposed to each other.

The name has to be on that list, otherwise my entire theory is BS and that'll be obvious the minute I reveal the name :P

The way I'd like to go about it is: attempt to determine the rough probability that FurinMirado was the one to maul me. At that time, I'll reveal the name because otherwise we'd be wasting time looking at that player.
Last edited by Hellheart on 29 Mar 2014, 23:48:05, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
Admetus
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 3756
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 13:43:55
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Birthday Boy
Location: Philadelphia, PA

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 29 Mar 2014, 23:47:34

I was just poking fun at

Hell, I arguably gain MORE by not revealing, since it encourages players to cooperate more closely with me in the future.

Combined with

That wasn't my alliance. It was an alliance I happened to be in, but it was clearly an alliance I felt no affiliation with. I helped lynch two of its members, one of which I mauled beforehand.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 29 Mar 2014, 23:49:56

It was the most boring alliance EVER. God, I think at least 4 separate times I said to someone that Zark and DOM must be together in another alliance, because they hardly said a thing in the one I was in. If that one looked like a serious collaboration, maybe I commit there instead. As it was, it felt more like a joke and I felt bad for That PJ.

I think that more than anything else has brought me to my current dilemma. Zark shared absolutely nothing about the potential affiliations of everyone he talked to (ie, everyone), so I really don't know who in that list has been working with players that would want to maul a wide range of players, may have had a vested interest in completely demolishing the Zark-DOM alliance, and/or didn't care enough for my RP contributions to maul somebody else instead.

User avatar
Visigoth
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 1738
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 14:22:08
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Cylon Occupied Ohio

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Visigoth » 30 Mar 2014, 06:27:28

Got sidetracked on Friday and completely forgot to vote.

I'm still potentially a Seer. Though I suspect my wolf result likely lowers my chances. My results:

Night 0: DastardlyOldMan - Human
Night 1: 7-Zark-7 - Human
Night 2: Admetus - Human
Night 3: Aldax - Human
Night 4: FurinMirado - Wolf
Night 5: Missed

I'm also no longer an Alpha candidate. Lost that a couple of days ago.

Quantum still confuses me and honestly I tend to approach them as a chance to be random each day. As such I'm pretty much lost as to how to proceed to get a wolf (does it have to be the Alpha?) to resolve when we lynch someone tonight in order to keep playing. So who are our potential targets? I'm tempted to shot Hellheart right now due to his "I have this information but don't want to give it up" deal. Hiding information is counter productive unless of course he was trying for a wolf win and to resolve as a wolf to share in that win.

User avatar
FurinMirado
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2530
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 16:55:18
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Indianapolis, IN - Eastern Time Zone

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby FurinMirado » 30 Mar 2014, 06:41:58

I just realized my PM says I can't be the Alpha, so here's my maul list:

Night 1: That PJ
Night 2: Meta4
Night 3: Mister E. Meat
Night 4: stigmata
Night 5: Aldax

I'm not sure which selection invalidated me as Alpha since I can't completely wrap my head around Quantum. But it seems like stigmata's WoG might be the culprit.

User avatar
Meta4
Post Whore
Post Whore
Posts: 665
Joined: 01 Aug 2013, 12:58:39
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Southern Michigan
Contact:

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Meta4 » 30 Mar 2014, 07:45:55

I am not eligible to be the alpha.


Night 1 - Nobody.
Night 2 - Nobody.
Night 3 - Nobody.
Night 4 - Aldax.
Night 5 - Stigmata.


Placeholder vote on Ryvvn. Too tired to think logically at the moment.
"...it continues to be a bad idea to give in to the urge to lynch Meta4." -Admetus

User avatar
That PJ
Post Whore
Post Whore
Posts: 663
Joined: 20 Feb 2014, 09:41:26
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Virginia (EST)

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby That PJ » 30 Mar 2014, 07:53:39

Hellheart wrote:
Admetus wrote:But this all doesn't answer the question of whether we can trust your list isn't made up.

(( That PJ knows most of that list. He was part of the alliance involving Zark, DOM...and me. I figure out of the few players who know that list, he's probably the least happy with me right now. Don't think he's unhappy enough to embrace a human loss over it, though.))

Yeah, I can confirm the list.

Hellheart wrote:Visions:

Night 0: rekard = wolf
Night 1: sphenodont = human
Night 2: FurinMirado = human
Night 3: Admetus = human
Night 4: Okaros = human
Night 5: Ryvvn = human

So, as I currently understand things, the best plan for narrowing down alpha at this point is Hellheart's list, because he is not a valid Seer but none of those targets are an obvious conflict; ergo all possible alphas must be on that list or else it'd still be possible to be correct. Is that the current path of logic here?

I will lend what intel I have on the list.

Admetus and Okaros have claimed alpha-invalidation; I can corroborate this from before PMs were banned. It's possible they were misleading me, but that's a rabbit hole with no end in sight, so unless someone has evidence to the contrary, I'm going with it.

Furin has claimed invalidation and posted his maul list, including the abnormality. If he were lying, I can think of better ways to do it, so I'm inclined to trust him.

That leaves sphenodont and Ryvvn. I don't have any intel on either of these, except that Zark was interested in keeping spheno around for unknown reasons and I know many people were in communication with Ryvvn. My instinct is to suspect that Ryvvn is the one Hellheart is protecting, and thus the more likely alpha on account of a non-trivial amount of data pointing to it (because if it were otherwise, Hellheart would share it). It's not the strongest reasoning, but it's all I've got.

Again, if someone has data on either of these two, they should speak up now.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 08:54:07

(( We need to identify TWO alphas, not one, because we have to Vig the other. If we take Furin, Secondhand Okaros, and Admetus at face value then the two alphas are sphenodont and Ryvvn. Which would mean one of those two mauled me last night. That's certainly possible, but so is the possibility that one of those three is lying about their alpha potential.

If there are only two potential alphas and we're wrong about one, we're probably running at something like a 40% chance of still losing. If there are three potential alphas, we can't really afford to be wrong about either of them. ))

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 09:18:05

(( My God Meta4, were you allergic to being the Alpha or something? Stigmata feels like a copout maul choice because he was probably never around to tell people how dead he was, but a Night 5 Stigmata maul with the anticipated Day 6 WoG is basically saying "The wolves could be in parity range tomorrow, so I'm going to tank my wolf chance!"

I'm inclined to believe Furin because Meta4's only two mauls are Furin's last two in reversed order and I was getting the impression that they were in the same alliance...but I could be totally off there. ))

sphenodont
Overlord
Overlord
Posts: 4392
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 05:36:16
TWG 1 Posts: 1671
TWG 2 Posts: 737
Location: Bloomington, IL (Central Time)

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby sphenodont » 30 Mar 2014, 12:33:22

I'll need to read the rest of the thread in more detail, but the long and the short is that I've obviously been invalidated as the seer, so my seer list is less than useful.

Okaros, I'll need to be reminded of that feeling, but I'll look through our love letters and see if I can rekindle that spark? (read: no idea what feeling, but need to figure out what I said. Been a long weekend...)

PJ: Zark and I had worked out a non-aggression pact, which we tend to do in most games. He asked me to hold off DOM, and I did for a while. I was trying to come to some mutual exchange of information, but that didn't quite pan out except for what I read between the lines. (His lynch invalidated me as alpha, but that day it was either him or me.)

Furin, would you mind sharing your seer history (if you're back in time)? I'm trying to figure something out that I received via the grapevine...

User avatar
Admetus
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 3756
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 13:43:55
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Birthday Boy
Location: Philadelphia, PA

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 30 Mar 2014, 12:39:13

I think Ryvvn's silence is pretty telling at this point. He tends to clam up when he's feeling guilty, I think.

User avatar
Okaros
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 4572
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:38:04
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Okaros the Exploder
Location: Holland, Michigan

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 30 Mar 2014, 13:12:19

spheno: For reference, check PM titles, but nevermind. The discussion so far has helped cement what I needed to know. Can you remind me which night you mauled Zark on?
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

sphenodont
Overlord
Overlord
Posts: 4392
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 05:36:16
TWG 1 Posts: 1671
TWG 2 Posts: 737
Location: Bloomington, IL (Central Time)

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby sphenodont » 30 Mar 2014, 13:52:53

Night 2.

Admetus: A little bit of leeway needs to be given on weekends. My suspicions fall mostly elsewhere (and I've been wary of Ryvvn all game... hence the vig).

Off to the office for some testing. Hopefully back before dinner.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 13:59:18

(( Indeed, Ryvvn needed to head things off before they really got rolling. I figured he was the default lynch today anyway, but I did what I could.

Would've been great if it had been Admetus, though, and I watched all of you convince yourselves it was Ryvvn. It would've been like an early Lemmings level where all you need to do to save them is lay down a single Blocker, but sometimes you just get the urge to watch the fuckers throw themselves off the cliff instead.

Since I obviously don't need to prove shit there, who do we shoot? ))

User avatar
Okaros
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 4572
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:38:04
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Okaros the Exploder
Location: Holland, Michigan

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 30 Mar 2014, 14:08:44

I wouldn't mind seeing some more information on the people I haven't been keeping tabs on and who haven't spoke up yet:

Nitestorm
Mister E. Meat
Aldax

Anyone have any information to share on them?

(I realize MEM's already cast a vote for rekard, but I don't think I've seen much discussion of whether he's alpha-viable or not. He's claimed seer viability, but hasn't actually posted his results.)
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 14:13:12

(( I have lots of speculation and no specifics!

I got the impression that most people think Nitestorm is on the human side of things. He's been keeping a helluva low profile - nary a flail to be seen.

The few discussions I've seen involving MEM tended to place him in the "wolfing it up" camp. But that's not even speculation - it's secondhand speculation. ))

User avatar
Admetus
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 3756
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 13:43:55
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Birthday Boy
Location: Philadelphia, PA

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 30 Mar 2014, 14:53:29

sphenodont wrote:Admetus: A little bit of leeway needs to be given on weekends. My suspicions fall mostly elsewhere (and I've been wary of Ryvvn all game... hence the vig).

It's pretty late in the Day for that. Didn't you give him his Teflon Avatar? And you want to give him leeway? Heh.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 15:03:22

(( Admetus, who do you think is the other potential Alpha?

This goes for at least everyone on that list. You've spent a ton of time dancing around the topic and now it's 4 hours left. Hell, we could all just do nothing and let MEM's Vig shot on Furin resolve, if you really want to take that route. ))

User avatar
Admetus
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 3756
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 13:43:55
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Birthday Boy
Location: Philadelphia, PA

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 30 Mar 2014, 15:05:56

I'm inclined to follow DOM's lead on Furin. DOM's got a keen wolf-sense.

I've been waiting for someone else to have some input from the half of the people I haven't talked to.

User avatar
Admetus
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 3756
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 13:43:55
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Birthday Boy
Location: Philadelphia, PA

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 30 Mar 2014, 15:07:19

Among the "they would have to be lying if they were going to be a candidate" choice of players, it'd be Hellheart or Okaros.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 15:09:44

Admetus wrote:Among the "they would have to be lying if they were going to be a candidate" choice of players, it'd be Hellheart or Okaros.

(( I can assure you, if I were a valid alpha candidate I wouldn't have gone through all of this. If both Ryvvn and I could've resolved as alpha, the only way I fuck that up is by calling attention to myself. ))

User avatar
Okaros
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 4572
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:38:04
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Okaros the Exploder
Location: Holland, Michigan

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 30 Mar 2014, 15:19:04

Hellheart wrote:Hell, we could all just do nothing and let MEM's Vig shot on Furin resolve, if you really want to take that route. ))


Actually, we can't. The vig can die/resolve without having fired, so everyone doing nothing just means the Vig will most likely go unfired.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 15:35:21

Okaros wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Hell, we could all just do nothing and let MEM's Vig shot on Furin resolve, if you really want to take that route. ))


Actually, we can't. The vig can die/resolve without having fired, so everyone doing nothing just means the Vig will most likely go unfired.

(( ...I suck at Quantum :lol:

At least I can go back into playing Doofenblat if we have another day. Less headache and more fun all around. ))

User avatar
Mister E. Meat
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2456
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 18:24:17
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Queens, NY

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Mister E. Meat » 30 Mar 2014, 15:48:43

I'm on a phone again. I had seen 7z7 as human and currently furin as human. Okaros and rekard as wolves, but they're both claiming to not be eligible for alpha. I am also not eligible for alpha. I'm not going to play dumb and claim that I wasn't trying to keep a wolf option open; I pretty much said as much above. Nonetheless, at this point I am so solidly human that trying to push to resolve as wolf would be difficult.

I'm not going to push rekard over all others tho.

So if Ryvvn is the better choice, lets do that.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 15:55:49

Admetus wrote:I'm inclined to follow DOM's lead on Furin. DOM's got a keen wolf-sense.

I've been waiting for someone else to have some input from the half of the people I haven't talked to.

(( Thinking about Furin and DOM, that whole crusade yesterday doesn't sit well with me. It lynched one of the most experienced Quantum players on the day before it becomes lynch-or-lose if we resolved another human. And it made rekard alpha-ineligible, which almost certainly wasn't a sure bet but I wouldn't be surprised if it was a reasoned shot in the dark. Everyone else on that list was inclined to let DOM slide, based on the late votes for him if they came at all, but Furin came early and hard. Perhaps he genuinely thought that DOM could be an alpha, but DOM obviously can't be the sole alpha candidate at that point, so it's still a conscious choice to take him down instead of somebody who wouldn't contribute as much in this sort of sticky situation.

I'll freely admit that I suspected DOM could be wolfing it up so I was happy to take him down, but I'm new at this so I'll make stupid plays like voluntarily lynching what in hindsight could have been one of our best assets in this situation. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 30 Mar 2014, 15:58:02, edited 1 time in total.

sphenodont
Overlord
Overlord
Posts: 4392
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 05:36:16
TWG 1 Posts: 1671
TWG 2 Posts: 737
Location: Bloomington, IL (Central Time)

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby sphenodont » 30 Mar 2014, 15:57:09

Admetus wrote:
sphenodont wrote:Admetus: A little bit of leeway needs to be given on weekends. My suspicions fall mostly elsewhere (and I've been wary of Ryvvn all game... hence the vig).

It's pretty late in the Day for that. Didn't you give him his Teflon Avatar? And you want to give him leeway? Heh.


This is true.

It's also why I vigged him, especially given his late-night snipes every day. :)

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 15:58:42

sphenodont wrote:
Admetus wrote:
sphenodont wrote:Admetus: A little bit of leeway needs to be given on weekends. My suspicions fall mostly elsewhere (and I've been wary of Ryvvn all game... hence the vig).

It's pretty late in the Day for that. Didn't you give him his Teflon Avatar? And you want to give him leeway? Heh.


This is true.

It's also why I vigged him, especially given his late-night snipes every day. :)

(( I was looking forward to keeping him alive as long as possible. Those snipes are amazing things to have on your side. ))

sphenodont
Overlord
Overlord
Posts: 4392
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 05:36:16
TWG 1 Posts: 1671
TWG 2 Posts: 737
Location: Bloomington, IL (Central Time)

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby sphenodont » 30 Mar 2014, 16:08:30

Understood. I'm still torn who to vote for, because I'm not seeing the logic for Ryvvn. Can someone lay it out for me?


HH, were DOM, Zark, and you playing to be wolves, or were you aiming to be wolf-hunters from the start? Zark's comms to me lead me to believe his faction (which I thought included MEM) was trying to be wolfy, but I don't know if I misread that or what.

I know I was part of a faction that was originally trying to go for the wolf win, but we decided to try to spin that down once a couple of us were invalidated. (Furin was dead-on when he said it was time to start trending human...) One of those faction members mentioned that he was in another alliance that was still trying to go wolf, so I'm more inclined to vote for one of them at this point.

User avatar
Okaros
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 4572
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:38:04
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Okaros the Exploder
Location: Holland, Michigan

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 30 Mar 2014, 16:08:34

I've come to agree with lynching Ryvvn. I greatly dislike lynching one of my allies, but after reviewing everything I think it's our best bet at the moment.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

User avatar
Okaros
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 4572
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:38:04
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Okaros the Exploder
Location: Holland, Michigan

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 30 Mar 2014, 16:22:25

Hellheart could you double-check this, please? I don't think Ryvvn has ever actually claimed to be alpha-invalid. True?
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

User avatar
Visigoth
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 1738
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 14:22:08
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Cylon Occupied Ohio

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Visigoth » 30 Mar 2014, 16:23:11

I guess we are going with Ryvvn then.

Stay alive my friends.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 16:26:14

sphenodont wrote:Understood. I'm still torn who to vote for, because I'm not seeing the logic for Ryvvn. Can someone lay it out for me?


HH, were DOM, Zark, and you playing to be wolves, or were you aiming to be wolf-hunters from the start? Zark's comms to me lead me to believe his faction (which I thought included MEM) was trying to be wolfy, but I don't know if I misread that or what.

I know I was part of a faction that was originally trying to go for the wolf win, but we decided to try to spin that down once a couple of us were invalidated. (Furin was dead-on when he said it was time to start trending human...) One of those faction members mentioned that he was in another alliance that was still trying to go wolf, so I'm more inclined to vote for one of them at this point.

(( I thought they both were trying to be wolfy, but I couldn't tell a thing based on what was said in the forum I shared with them. They had this annoying habit of making single posts in that forum that sounded like the tail end of conversations they'd been having somewhere else. In hindsight, while they may have started out wolfy, I think DOM quickly invalidated as alpha after the early wolf double-lynch and Zark would've needed to give human Seer results to wheel-and-deal like he did. They played it super close to the vest and maybe Zark left his Alpha options open, but I think they were more concerned with vaccuming up information than anything else.

I know most of Ryvvn's maul choices, and two of them mentioned having a higher death percentage after Stigmata got WoG'd. I'm absolutely certain that he's a potential alpha. The silliest part about all of this is that I only Seer'ed him yesterday to get the human result when I shared my Seer visions; talk about a ridiculously low-odds backfire. We were angling for human the entire time, just...you know, really poorly when it came to the alpha invalidation thing because this was the first Quantum game for both of us.

That said, we still need to shoot somebody so any input on that is more than welcome. ))

User avatar
Aldax
phAnt0m burn3r (Age 13.5)
phAnt0m burn3r (Age 13.5)
Posts: 684
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 13:32:16
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Monterrey, Nuevo León, México

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Aldax » 30 Mar 2014, 16:52:21

Seems like I'm no longer eligible to be the Alpha

Concentrated list of Seerings:

Day 0: Not submitted
Day 1: Not submitted
Day 2: : Ryvvn: Human
Day 3: Not submitted (damn you school)
Day 5: DOM: Wolf

...as you can see, I missed a big deal of info, and I'm no longer eligible to be a seer either. I won't trust my first vision: I'm going with Ryvvn
Moral of the story: Never self-vig. - rekard

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 16:58:16

(( Wow, maybe DOM didn't invalidate and really was lying out of his ass. That's the third DOM = wolf vision I remember seeing. If it ends up that he did have a high wolf chance, I'm going to feel a helluvalot better about being stubbornly for his lynch. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 30 Mar 2014, 17:49:15, edited 2 times in total.

User avatar
That PJ
Post Whore
Post Whore
Posts: 663
Joined: 20 Feb 2014, 09:41:26
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Virginia (EST)

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby That PJ » 30 Mar 2014, 17:24:57

So here's everyone left and all the intel I could throw together. Please correct me on any points I got wrong and I'll happily amend it. In particular, I'm having trouble keeping track of seer eligibility. Aside from the holes below, it looks like only three of us (alive) are eligible to be seer.

As far as alpha, almost everyone has claimed that they've been invalidated, though several people have given no supporting evidence--not even a claim to having mauled someone in particular. Nothing from Nitestorm, but he's not on Hellheart's list.

That PJ - Eligible to be Seer. Ineligible to be alpha due to maul of Rictus on Night 1.

FurinMirado - Ineligible to be Seer. Ineligible to be Alpha presumably due to maul of stigmata.

rekard - Seer status unknown. Ineligible to be alpha due to maul DOM on [Night 1?]. Vig shot used on Zark.

Okaros - Seer status unknown. Ineligible to be alpha due to maul of Zark on [Night ?].

Admetus - Ineligible to be Seer. Ineligible to be alpha due to maul of Rictus on [Night ?]

sphenodont - Seer status unknown. Ineligible for alpha due to Night 2 maul of Zark. Vig shot on Ryvvn.

Visigoth - Eligible to be Seer. Ineligible for alpha (no reason stated).

Ryvvn - Seer status unknown. Eligible for alpha.

Hellheart - Ineligible to be Seer; results suggest list includes all eligible alphas. Ineligible to be alpha due to maul of DOM.

Aldax - Ineligible for Seer. Ineligible for alpha (no reason stated).

Mister E. Meat - Eligible for Seer. Ineligible for alpha (no reason stated). Has a Vig shot on Furin.

meta4 - Seer status unknown. Ineligible to be alpha due to maul of stigmata.

Nitestorm - Seer status unknown. Alpha status unknown, but not among Hellheart's visions.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

User avatar
Ryvvn
Teflon Coated
Posts: 3488
Joined: 30 Jul 2013, 16:21:50
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Salem, OR
Contact:

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Ryvvn » 30 Mar 2014, 17:32:12

Admetus wrote:I think Ryvvn's silence is pretty telling at this point. He tends to clam up when he's feeling guilty, I think.

Or when real life is getting in the way, as my "allies" would know and have decided to pile on instead of taking that into consideration or mentioning it to others on my behalf.

Here are mine and Hellheart's "coordinated" mauls, provided neither of us was lying:
Night 1: sphenodont

Night 2: (HH mauled) rekard / (I mauled) MEM
[discrepancy because we did not coordinate this night before hand and both put in late EoD maul votes]

Night 3: Admetus

Night 4: (I was under the impression that we would both maul) Zark / (HH admitted the next day to switching his maul to) DOM
Hellheart in alliance thread wrote:I think there's a pretty good chance we can get DOM killed today if we play things right here. I panic-mauled him when Zark got lynched, so that would be immensely useful for me on that front as well.
[Why would you suddenly panic and switch your earlier proposed maul, unless you did [i]not want to alpha-invalidate?][/i]

Finally, Night 5: (no coordination, so I mauled) rekard


Also, I've been invalidated as seer since Rictus died, but here are mine:
Night 0: Admetus (human)
Night 1: Rictus (wolf)
Night 2: Visigoth (human)
Night 3: Furin (invalidated)
Night 4: None (invalidated)


I've been trending human the entire game, and though I've been cautious about the small few I allied myself with, Okaros and Hellheart, I decided to just play the game as if we were all trending human and going for a human team win. To my understanding of Quantum, I've been invalidated as alpha by my maul choice of Zark, and if Hellheart honestly switched his vote to DOM, then he'd be invalid as well.

At this point, my biggest instinctual suspicion is of Okaros; he chose not to reveal his maul choices to us in the allied form, and he's definitely been playing all sides, which has me feeling he's been straddling the borderline as best he can and now he wants to tip toward wolf (if he hasn't done so already). And since he's been working with so many groups, most of you should have at least a little bit of a tone read on him. I'll hold my (likely useless at this point) vote, to see if anyone agrees or at least realizes that I'm the wrong choice.

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 17:49:18

(( I don't think much more information is going to come out. I'm most inclined to believe Admetus' invalidation - it seemed like a relaxed and straightforward omission, and echoed something he'd said the day after Rictus got lynched. Sphenodont makes me nervous, but it's difficult to tell how much of that is just lingering malice from the Lovers' game where the bastard fleeced the shit out of me.

But between the DOM crusade and the "I guess this is why" invalidation via Stigmata WoG, I feel compelled to go the direction I've been leaning towards this whole time. ))

---click---sigh...One last time, Heinz, for appearances sake

Ahem...BEHOLD, the Doomed Forecast-inator! With this machine I will convince everyone that we are well and truly DOOMED by flooding the area with suffocating darkness, sad violin music, and the smell of Grandma's house! And not the comforting Grandma house smell, I'm talking about that smell you get in that one room where she spends most of her time. I remember the first time I encountered that smell...PERRY THE PLATYPUS! Don't interrupt me in the middle of my backstory, it's really disorienting...oh, this is just my Doomed Forecast-inator. I just figured it'd make it easier to accept our inevitable failure and death. It's not really part of an evil scheme to take over the tri-state area, so there's no need to foil my evil plans. To be honest, I didn't even see a reason to install a self-destruct mechanism on this -inator.

Don't look so shocked Perry the Platypus, you can still try to foil my evil plans when you break out of that trap. What do you mean, what trap? Don't be ridiculous, I always trap you before I start putting my evil plans into motion. I'm sure it was a well-hidden, foolproof trap that you only escaped from because of my own ineptitude and lack of foresight, or because I'm a complete failure as an evil scientist, or...you can't do anything to to that -inator Perry the Platypus, it's solid steel and bolted into the ground with no self-destruct mechanism. Suit yourself, you can tug on it all day while it's powering up, in less than 10 minutes you'll know how hopeless our situation really is.

Fast-motion segment shows Perry the Platypus fashioning a crude crowbar, prying the bolts out on all four sides, pushing the -inator from multiple sides, pulling it from multiple sides, bashing it with the crowbar, jumping up and down on it...Doofenshmirtz spends the entire time sitting there despondent, not moving a muscle.

It's no use Perry the Platypus, the -inator is going to fire less than a minute and it's practically indestructible.

Perry the Platypus, in a feat of desperation, picks up an -inator that's more than a dozen times his size and hurls it across the room.

...
...
...

...Really? That's the best this show's writers came up with? And suddenly the completely indestructible -inator gets turned into scrap metal. You guys do know I was watching it the whole time, right? Because it was completely unharmed for like 2 seconds before spontaneously turning into a pile of scrap metal. You'd think after 4 seasons that the production values would go up, but you wouldn't believe the things I've had to put up with lately. They didn't even tell FurinMirado - Vig Shot to get out of the way, but do you see his body anywhere? Of course not, it's an "unimportant prop," so they don't even bother drawing it like a dozen other things an episode that have suddenly become "unnecessary expenses."

God, what an awful scene. I need to have a long talk with my agent. I'll be in my trailer if you need me.
Last edited by Hellheart on 30 Mar 2014, 17:53:53, edited 2 times in total.

sphenodont
Overlord
Overlord
Posts: 4392
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 05:36:16
TWG 1 Posts: 1671
TWG 2 Posts: 737
Location: Bloomington, IL (Central Time)

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby sphenodont » 30 Mar 2014, 17:51:56

Ryvvn (retracted), if you did maul me and you're the alpha, I'm dead anyway. I'd rather vote Visi or Admetus, but there's no way an alternate train is going to build up now.
Last edited by sphenodont on 30 Mar 2014, 18:49:23, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Retracted the vote...

User avatar
Hellheart
Post Harlot
Post Harlot
Posts: 2908
Joined: 05 Aug 2013, 09:13:21
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Livonia, MI

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Hellheart » 30 Mar 2014, 18:01:06

Ryvvn wrote:Night 4: (I was under the impression that we would both maul) Zark / (HH admitted the next day to switching his maul to) DOM
Hellheart in alliance thread wrote:I think there's a pretty good chance we can get DOM killed today if we play things right here. I panic-mauled him when Zark got lynched, so that would be immensely useful for me on that front as well.
[Why would you suddenly panic and switch your earlier proposed maul, unless you did [i]not want to alpha-invalidate?][/i]

(( None of my night actions had conditionals, so after Zark was lynched, Dferrantino sent me a PM saying "if I don't have a valid maul in 5 minutes, I'll pick one at random." DOM was the first non-allied name that came to mind.

If you maul a player on the day he is lynched, you don't alpha-invalidate. It's not a paradox, you just can't maul the guy because he's already dead. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 30 Mar 2014, 18:03:14, edited 1 time in total.

User avatar
rekard
Post Nympho
Post Nympho
Posts: 6328
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:27:18

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby rekard » 30 Mar 2014, 18:01:09

People that may be probably lying could be Admetus and Okaros.

I talked with Okaros and teamed up, yet he had his information close to his heart and the mauls he said he did, they were lies. And besides that, he said nothing else. For a team player as he desired to be, he actually was a bad teammate. He was interested in coirdinating lynches, but information he wasn't giving. I didn't put more attention due to being busy but he is shifty. Also he was the tattletale of Zark's intentions. If he had said more about his targets, I wouldn't be posting this. In the end, I don't trust he will keep a team spirit right now. Also, he is only discarded from being Alpha from a third person, not himself. Actually, he only mentioned one false maul of MEM.

Also a funny thing is that Admetus is saying Okaros mauled Zark (hence invalidated as Alpha) but from Day 1, Okaros was opposed to mauling Zark strongly. He "wanted" a wolf win, yet he never was worried about Zark invalidating from Alpha.

Admetus could be lying, since when I talked with him and there was an aim of being human, he didn't mention he was Alpha ineligible from Rictus lynch and still insisted of voting mauling and lynching Ryyvn to become Alpha ineligible.

Hellheart can be lying, but given how most people are actually talking about not being Alpha, information seems to match his visions to a certain degree.

Ryvvn has become silent this weekend so Okaros and Ryvvn are pretty good liars.

So let's go with Okaros. Next time, if you want to play as a team, be more truthful from the start.

User avatar
Ryvvn
Teflon Coated
Posts: 3488
Joined: 30 Jul 2013, 16:21:50
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Salem, OR
Contact:

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Ryvvn » 30 Mar 2014, 18:15:11

Hellheart wrote:If you maul a player on the day he is lynched, you don't alpha-invalidate. It's not a paradox, you just can't maul the guy because he's already dead. ))

Oh right, my maul went to my conditional then, which was Okaros; so I am still technically alpha eligible, but that will honestly put the game into a coin flip (favoring a human loss) if I'm the one lynched tonight.

User avatar
Okaros
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 4572
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:38:04
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Okaros the Exploder
Location: Holland, Michigan

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Okaros » 30 Mar 2014, 18:21:12

Ryvvn wrote:
Hellheart wrote:If you maul a player on the day he is lynched, you don't alpha-invalidate. It's not a paradox, you just can't maul the guy because he's already dead. ))

Oh right, my maul went to my conditional then, which was Okaros; so I am still technically alpha eligible, but that will honestly put the game into a coin flip (favoring a human loss) if I'm the one lynched tonight.


Thank you for saying that, as who mauled me was the last piece of the puzzle. I now know a) who both the alpha candidates are and b) that lynching Ryvvn will force him to be the alpha by invalidating the other candidate.


:(

RIP me then.


(details coming, this will take a moment to write up)
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

User avatar
rekard
Post Nympho
Post Nympho
Posts: 6328
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 15:27:18

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby rekard » 30 Mar 2014, 18:25:16

Aha. From a pure trust perspective, Okaros is the most untrustworthy. He never mentioned he was on a team with Hellheart and Ryvvn, yet he was trying to go for a wolf win, and I bet he still is, hence his silence.

Admetus reveal probably has helped him not having to talk, but I bet he lied to Admetus since Admetus said he aimed for a human win.

I would say that unless Okaros says something actually truthful, he should be lynched instead of Ryvvn.

User avatar
Admetus
Post Strumpet
Post Strumpet
Posts: 3756
Joined: 25 Jul 2013, 13:43:55
TWG 1 Posts: 0
custom_title: Birthday Boy
Location: Philadelphia, PA

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Admetus » 30 Mar 2014, 18:25:53

rekard wrote:Also a funny thing is that Admetus is saying Okaros mauled Zark (hence invalidated as Alpha) but from Day 1, Okaros was opposed to mauling Zark strongly. He "wanted" a wolf win, yet he never was worried about Zark invalidating from Alpha.

This is very enlightening. I was just reporting what Okaros said to me.

Okaros wrote:Zark was my first maul target, so I'm in the clear as far as the alpha wolf goes.

Any comment, Okaros?



rekard wrote:Admetus could be lying, since when I talked with him and there was an aim of being human, he didn't mention he was Alpha ineligible from Rictus lynch and still insisted of voting mauling and lynching Ryyvn to become Alpha ineligible.

This was part of a convoluted plot to kill off an Alpha candidate on the day I accidentally missed the deadline completely. You can read all about it after the game closes, I'll probably get to be part of your vengeance list. ;)

User avatar
Ryvvn
Teflon Coated
Posts: 3488
Joined: 30 Jul 2013, 16:21:50
TWG 1 Posts: 0
Location: Salem, OR
Contact:

Re: Day 6 - Placeholder

Postby Ryvvn » 30 Mar 2014, 18:27:36

Since, Okaros, is the only other option at this time, with only ~30 mins left, I'll place my vote there; and whatever evidence he provides to his assuredness I should by lynched may help the rest of you make the decision to stay or move.


Return to “The Box”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest