Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

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Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby dferrantino » 31 Mar 2014, 19:44:09

But hey, he made it this far.

Meta4 - Lynched - Seer

Oh, and Aldax got mauled to death.

Aldax - Mauled - Human

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby That PJ » 31 Mar 2014, 19:57:51

:x
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby Hellheart » 31 Mar 2014, 20:06:12

(( I'm not sure if he lied about his visions, or if Aldax mauled him and we basically accidentally went along with the Primary plan all along?

Bottom line is, Visigoth and I are the only two eligible wolves and we both have CONFIRMED maul votes on each other. Humans win. If there's any complications, we'll know about it because we should both have 50% chance of wolf at this point. ))

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby Hellheart » 31 Mar 2014, 20:08:24

(( Oh son of a bitch. Nitestorm's still eligible. Or That PJ was lying about mauling Meta4, which sounds odd. I'm going with the Nitestorm eligibility explanation, if it's all the same to you.

...Oh wait, I'm [censored] dead! He decided to maul me! Score one for accusing him of being Ozymandias in disguise! :lol:

Hellheart - LOCKED ))

---

(( If the day resolves before I can finish the rest of my RP, I'll post it in the final day. Doofenshmirtz deserves a wrap-up of sorts.

It's been great working with you two. I'm glad I can repay Visigoth for his equally suicidal decision to stick with me in the Star Wars TWG, even though I got lucky here to backend into keeping the win chance alive. ))
Last edited by Hellheart on 31 Mar 2014, 20:12:50, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby That PJ » 31 Mar 2014, 20:12:20

Hellheart wrote:(( I'm not sure if he lied about his visions, or if Aldax mauled him and we basically accidentally went along with the Primary plan all along?

Bottom line is, Visigoth and I are the only two eligible wolves and we both have CONFIRMED maul votes on each other. Humans win. If there's any complications, we'll know about it because we should both have 50% chance of wolf at this point. ))

Complications:

Nitestorm was not in fact a confirmed human, since it relied on Visigoth's vision of him--which we now know is invalid. Meta4's visions are utterly useless to us, too--assuming he was even honest about them. I'm very angry about that.

Aldax is not a confirmed human, either, since we don't know who he mauled--if he mauled anyone at all.

Did I miss something that confirmed both of them?
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby Hellheart » 31 Mar 2014, 20:20:10

That PJ wrote:
Hellheart wrote:(( I'm not sure if he lied about his visions, or if Aldax mauled him and we basically accidentally went along with the Primary plan all along?

Bottom line is, Visigoth and I are the only two eligible wolves and we both have CONFIRMED maul votes on each other. Humans win. If there's any complications, we'll know about it because we should both have 50% chance of wolf at this point. ))

Complications:

Nitestorm was not in fact a confirmed human, since it relied on Visigoth's vision of him--which we now know is invalid. Meta4's visions are utterly useless to us, too--assuming he was even honest about them. I'm very angry about that.

Aldax is not a confirmed human, either, since we don't know who he mauled--if he mauled anyone at all.

Did I miss something that confirmed both of them?

(( If you add my % wolf to my % dead, you get 100%. In quantum terms, that means that when you lynch me I'm going to resolve as a wolf no matter what else is going on in the game.

Aldax IS a confirmed human because wolves can't be mauled. Nitestorm's wolf eligibility would have wrecked us so bad if he didn't maul me, I'll give you that. I'm going to be running on negative miracles for the next couple of games.

This will be a fitting end. My resolving as a wolf and losing is karmic retribution for what happened to Ryvvn. The guy that I feel got treated the worst by the people he was working with will end up being a co-victor when all is said and done. You earned it, That PJ - I seriously doubt that we pull this out if I didn't have you working with me yesterday. ))

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby That PJ » 31 Mar 2014, 20:45:06

Hellheart wrote:(( If you add my % wolf to my % dead, you get 100%. In quantum terms, that means that when you lynch me I'm going to resolve as a wolf no matter what else is going on in the game.

Aldax IS a confirmed human because wolves can't be mauled. Nitestorm's wolf eligibility would have wrecked us so bad if he didn't maul me, I'll give you that. I'm going to be running on negative miracles for the next couple of games.

This will be a fitting end. My resolving as a wolf and losing is karmic retribution for what happened to Ryvvn. The guy that I feel got treated the worst by the people he was working with will end up being a co-victor when all is said and done. You earned it, That PJ - I seriously doubt that we pull this out if I didn't have you working with me yesterday. ))

I think I get it now. If you were to turn up up human as a lynch, the remaining wolves would be unable to maul you, which would invalidate them, causing a paradox; ergo you cannot be a human if you are lynched.

Going to sleep on it before I lock, because I want to triple check all the logic here. But I appreciate the sentiments, Hellheart - LOCKED; thanks for working through to the end.
Last edited by That PJ on 01 Apr 2014, 05:33:46, edited 1 time in total.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby Nitestorm » 01 Apr 2014, 05:10:30

Why is everyone ganging up on Hellheart anyways? I guess I'll be guilty of that as well. :twisted:

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby Visigoth » 01 Apr 2014, 05:22:05

Isn't Aldax confirmed human due to being dead and having "human" next to the result?

Hellheart for the win I guess.

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby That PJ » 01 Apr 2014, 05:33:17

Visigoth wrote:Isn't Aldax confirmed human due to being dead and having "human" next to the result?

Hellheart for the win I guess.

I missed the edit that had Aldax mauled. Which I guess means every possible wolf has mauled him at this point, so he is definitely, definitely dead. Also means he was never a potential Delta, so he invalidated himself somehow. Maybe he mauled meta4 like I did.

Anyway, that tidies things up nicely.

Hellheart, Visigoth, and Nitestorm are all potential Deltas.

Hellheart has mauled Visigoth and Aldax
Visigoth has mauled Hellheart and Aldax
Nitestorm has mauled Hellheart and Aldax (based on a high percentage vs. a low percentage, the majority of possible wolves must have mauled Hellheart).

Hellheart is also the only safe option:
- If we lynch Visigoth, Hellheart cannot resolve as Delta, but Nitestorm potentially can, making it a coin flip.
- If we lynch Nitestorm, Hellheart cannot resolve as Delta, but Visigoth potentially can, making it a coin flip.
- If we lynch Hellheart, neither Visigoth nor Nitestorm can resolve as Delta (paradox), so Hellheart must resolve as alpha.

Technically the Nitestorm conclusions are suppositions based on Hellheart's evaluation of his own status, but it makes sense. Visi and Nitestorm must both be low-percentage (one third, actually) for both Wolf and Dead.

So, editing my earlier post to lock this in and finish it out.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby dferrantino » 01 Apr 2014, 06:10:07

Nitestorm/Visi, locked?

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Re: Day 8 - You lynched the Seer!

Postby Visigoth » 01 Apr 2014, 10:10:16

Consider mine locked. Posting from a phone sucks especially since the stock browser really doesn't seem to like the forum posting screen.


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