Wolf stuff.

Except not really. Just an alliance containing rekard, Okaros, and sphenodont. Because I like my PM box and you're breaking it.
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Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 07:34:13

I have been busy.

But the best way to control the situation is to each have two teams or alliances.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 24 Mar 2014, 09:30:22

This is true.

I'll fully admit that I tend to flail when trying to wrap my head around quantum, which is silly, because I should be good at a stats-based game.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 10:38:29

I'm still in the process of trying to wrap my head around the state-collapse implications of various actions. I'll leave actually attempting to directly manipulate who turns into what for later once things have been simplified by several deaths.

Good notion to shoot first and ask questions later, rekard. An early vig like that ought to make it far less likely for you to be the vigilante and thus slightly more likely for you to be a wolf.


Right now the things I'm trying to wrap my head around most is conditionals with the maul. Since lynches resolve immediately, are the only things we'd need to conditional around the current day's lynch and hypothetically-fired vigs? I think so.

For the lynch, if you resolve as the dominant wolf, your previous targets are dead and you're conditional-ing against a wasted maul. If you're a non-dom wolf, you conditional against the lynch in case you're not the dominant wolf but the lynch victim *is* (so that there's still a maul that night).

For vig shots, it's the same I think. If you've hypothetically mauled someone and they're vigged, it means you can't be the dominant at the time of your maul. If you maul someone *after* they've been hypothetically vigged... No effect on resolution, I think? You can still be the dominant, it's just a no-maul result if you didn't conditional it, yeah?

So it's really the vigs that add the need for lots of conditionals as the game goes on, yeah?
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 10:59:29

If there's a possibility your target will be invalidated, yeah use the conditionals.

The case for which you will need conditionals mostly is the seer as mauls can be plenty and varied. The mauls can invalidate seerings, but mauls don't need them that much.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 11:04:16

Yeah, that's a good point. Seers are vulnerable to dom-wolf resolution resulting in a bunch of unexpectedly-dead people, so conditionals out the wazoo there. Fun!
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 24 Mar 2014, 11:17:04

If I remember correctly, seeing someone as a wolf makes your own wolfiness increase. So if you see someone as a wolf, be sure to let us know, so we can then target YOU as a seer target. We don't want to increase the wolf factor of an outside player, but we probably increase the odds of ourselves being the proper bad guys.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 13:42:22

Just so you know, I did that vig shot as a sort of deterrent. That sort of guarantees me that Zark won't try to vote for me in fear of me resolving to be a vigilante. Hence I would say that's why he is not voting for me to a degree.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 13:59:29

rekard wrote:Just so you know, I did that vig shot as a sort of deterrent. That sort of guarantees me that Zark won't try to vote for me in fear of me resolving to be a vigilante. Hence I would say that's why he is not voting for me to a degree.



He is saying as much in PMs, in fact (I took the opportunity of his whiskey-bottle post to open a friendly dialogue with him).
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 14:15:25

Oh nice. Really nice to see a ploy working at least a bit as intended.

Ah Sphen, I think that seering a wolf doesn't make you more wolfy much, but it makes your target more wolfy. The aim here is lynch a guy we have seered to attempt avoiding being the seer.

And of course to avoid lynching a maul.

Who did you seer Okaros?

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 14:21:42

rekard wrote:Oh nice. Really nice to see a ploy working at least a bit as intended.

Ah Sphen, I think that seering a wolf doesn't make you more wolfy much, but it makes your target more wolfy. The aim here is lynch a guy we have seered to attempt avoiding being the seer.

And of course to avoid lynching a maul.

Who did you seer Okaros?



Seering a wolf does make the target slightly more wolfy (since in the subset of cases where you are the seer they must be a wolf) and can make you slightly more wolfy as well (an early-game wolf seering should be against the odds. If your target gets lynched and flips human, you're no longer the seer and thus more wolfy as a result).


I seered Zark as a wolf, which makes him an excellent candidate for the Day Two lynch (would remove Rekard from the vig role and potentially invalidate me as the seer). Who'd you guys seer?
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 14:45:23

I have the DOM as a wolf. So if we lynch DOM, we have enough odds that I lose seeritude.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 14:48:27

On the other hand we can maul Zark on different days and help the odds a bit.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 18:07:28

Ok. Assuming I am going to be a wolf. Okaros, maul Zark. That will help void the vig. If we do thjngs right and I stay a wolf, it won't matter that I did a vig.

Also, I am on way to do an alliance with Admetus and Visigoth. I will try to nudge lynches and mauls to not us.

I thinj if we maul people we seer it helps us a bit. As long a we don't kynch our maul guys.

Seer anyone you want, even better if we plan on lynching the guy.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 18:19:06

If I maul Zark, we'll want to *not* lynch him since that would lock me out of the alpha wolf role. Maybe spheno's seer target?

Nitestorm also works as a generic fallback. Without Ozy to tilt against he's a bit of a loose cannon...



Edit: To elaborate slightly: Lynching Zark is probably our best bet for a single act of gross wolfishness: It takes rekard's vig role away and the odds are good it also removes my seer role (and removing a human makes everyone slightly more wolfy, anyway). DOM's a decent second-place, since it would remove rekard's seer role.


Edit2: or Nite could get pushed up to a tie, making him a less-good fallback. Maybe Meta4?
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 18:25:53

Exactly. Whoever we maul, we have to avoid their lynch.

If you maulnZark, it also helps you stay as a wolf since you seered him as a wolf. Or decide someone else that we might maul on a later night.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 24 Mar 2014, 18:29:45

Sorry, been busy all night. Let me see what's going on.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 18:32:37

rekard wrote:If you maulnZark, it also helps you stay as a wolf since you seered him as a wolf. Or decide someone else that we might maul on a later night.


Or it makes me more human/seerish if he doesn't die for a while. Mauling him only helps make me wolfy if I'm already resolved as the dominant wolf (and thus my maul kills him), at which point I don't really need the help. It also sets up a situation where you accidentally resolve as the vig and result in my maul being invalid (and thus I can't be the alpha wolf). Not worth the risk, imo. Would rather just get him lynched and kill two human birds (vig/seer) with one stone.

Spheno, standing question for you is who you seered last night/what the result was. We may want to maul them. :)
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 24 Mar 2014, 18:36:26

I PMed you guys earlier with that. Aldax came back human.

My thought is that I wanted to pick someone who had a low likelihood of being targeted by someone else, so that I'd have a cleaner shot at them. I might do the same tonight, and seer That PJ > necklessone > Nitestorm.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 18:41:42

sphenodont wrote:I PMed you guys earlier with that. Aldax came back human.

My thought is that I wanted to pick someone who had a low likelihood of being targeted by someone else, so that I'd have a cleaner shot at them. I might do the same tonight, and seer That PJ > necklessone > Nitestorm.


Oh right, duh. Well, mauling him would be okay-ish now that he's participating and isn't facing imminent WoG.
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 24 Mar 2014, 18:44:02

Any thoughts on who I should maul? rekard, what are your plans?

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 24 Mar 2014, 19:19:37

Okaros wrote:
rekard wrote:If you maulnZark, it also helps you stay as a wolf since you seered him as a wolf. Or decide someone else that we might maul on a later night.


Or it makes me more human/seerish if he doesn't die for a while. Mauling him only helps make me wolfy if I'm already resolved as the dominant wolf (and thus my maul kills him), at which point I don't really need the help. It also sets up a situation where you accidentally resolve as the vig and result in my maul being invalid (and thus I can't be the alpha wolf). Not worth the risk, imo. Would rather just get him lynched and kill two human birds (vig/seer) with one stone.

Spheno, standing question for you is who you seered last night/what the result was. We may want to maul them. :)


The most likely way of me resolving as a vig is to die. And no Okaros. You seeing him as a wolf makes you less likely of being a seer or human since there are probably only around 4 wolves. You are way less likely to become a seer than most people.

Anyways, we should consolidate mauls to ascertain dominance.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 25 Mar 2014, 05:57:59

That PJ came back human. He might be a worthy maul target, given that he's likely under the radar.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 25 Mar 2014, 06:38:06

FWIW, I've reached out to zark, Hellheart, necklessone, and Visigoth. (I forgot you said you were working with Visi, rekard.) So far, Zark and HH have replied. HH is generally suspicious of me and wants to stuff me full of platypi. Zark's looking to join an aliance, but I told him I haven't gotten anything together yet.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 25 Mar 2014, 17:21:51

Anything, guys, or is this "alliance" dead in the water?

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 25 Mar 2014, 17:45:06

I have been really busy and tired. Uhm well I mauled DOM and seered a human Admetus. Who did you maul?

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 25 Mar 2014, 18:02:09

I know how that goes.

I mauled DOM > Aldax and seered PJ as human. In retrospect, mauling conditionals on Day 1 is a little less useful, unless a vig is involved.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 25 Mar 2014, 18:04:45

Sorry guys, I got sucked into the new Diablo 3 expansion. I mauled Aldax last night, and Visi turned up human upon being seered.

I'm thinking MEM for the maul tonight? He's hardly drawing any lynch attention (we may have to agree to disagree on mauling Zark, but that's no reason we can't get along elsewhere).
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 25 Mar 2014, 18:27:43

MEM's not a bad option. I was thinking of mauling That PJ, since again, he seems an under-the-radar choice.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 25 Mar 2014, 18:29:36

I'm fine with PJ. Rekard, do you have a preference?
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 25 Mar 2014, 18:41:34

I think we should maul people that we are allied with that are not us. That way we can control the lynch a bit better. If anyone is communicating with someone else for a quasi alliance we should not lynch those guys so they can helpnus lynch other folks.

Let's maul different folks today. But let's not spread mauls too much. I can maul one of my other team or MEM. We should not maul the same player simuktaneously. Just in case.

I will maul one of my allies.Admetus or Visigoth. If you can get more allies that adds up to our pool of mauls.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 25 Mar 2014, 18:46:09

Also, I think we are making a mistake. We should be lynching people we are seering but not maul them. I will seer Rictus, to try and lynch him tomorrow.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 25 Mar 2014, 18:46:46

Okaros, you go for MEM, I'll target PJ, rekard goes after Admetus or Visi?

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 25 Mar 2014, 18:48:14

sphenodont wrote:Okaros, you go for MEM, I'll target PJ, rekard goes after Admetus or Visi?



Sounds like a plan. And good call on mauling allies, rekard. They're more likely to stay alive (since we have incentive to do so).
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 25 Mar 2014, 18:48:45

rekard wrote:Also, I think we are making a mistake. We should be lynching people we are seering but not maul them. I will seer Rictus, to try and lynch him tomorrow.


That's true, but I'm not sure how we can credibly get some of them lynched. I'll try seering Nitestorm tonight. He might be a good lynch target tomorrow.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 25 Mar 2014, 19:33:47

2 lynched wolves in a row? Ugh. When I said I wanted to go for being the winning wolf team, I didn't intend for it to be *this* big of a handicap.

What do you guys think: Continue forward or try and salvage the remnants of our humanity?
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 25 Mar 2014, 19:35:07

Gah. I missed targets today. I have no idwa of the EOD.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 26 Mar 2014, 07:03:57

Well, at least we're in better position to become alpha.

Unfortunately, we don't have much of a buffer if we're caught out.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 26 Mar 2014, 07:09:50

Zark does not want DOM resolved. I suspect they are working together.

Zark does want rekard resolved, but only after a coordinated mass-seering. That might happen tonight, unless it happened yesterday. Did you see major movement on your stats, rekard?

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 07:41:11

sphenodont wrote:Zark does want rekard resolved, but only after a coordinated mass-seering. That might happen tonight, unless it happened yesterday. Did you see major movement on your stats, rekard?


He's definitely working to make that happen tonight. My grapevine is forwarding along that same mass-seer request from Zark.
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 26 Mar 2014, 07:56:55

Mas seering me doesn't do anything. It will just put me on an average index and barely any different than anyone else. That doesn't make sense. But what makes sense is that he wants to try and increaese my wolf index so he can lynch me with less chance of me resolving as a vigilante. So he is not planning a mas seering. He is planning a mass lynch. Let's not let that happen.

I had minimal changes on me being human or wolf, but I did have change in death index.

What were your targets yesterday?

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 26 Mar 2014, 08:01:35

Also, alternatively, is there a way to turn Zark into a wolf? It could make the vig shot more useful.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 26 Mar 2014, 08:12:21

Mauled PJ and saw DOM as human. My wolf/human was also largely unchanged, but I had another large increase in deadness.

I think lynching DOM might be informative, but I'm not sure I want to start that ball rolling since zark specifically asked against it. I wouldn't be surprised if that team is mauling me (similar to how we were considering mauling other "allies").

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 08:54:45

Mauled MEM as requested. Seered Hellheart as human. Who'd you target, rekard?

Breaking up Zark + DOM looks like a better and better idea but I'm not sure how to swing it with the lynch right now. Zark's got a lot of weakly-allied friends at the moment and it's probably still too early to expect much betrayal in those ranks.
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby sphenodont » 26 Mar 2014, 09:02:56

Do you have any idea who some of those allies might be?

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 09:33:06

sphenodont wrote:Do you have any idea who some of those allies might be?


Easier to list names that I *haven't* heard in connection to Zark/DOM:

Rictus
Meta4
Aldax
Nitestorm
rekard ( :P )

It's hard to say who is/isn't allied with him for real, he's sent out so many "alliance offers" (some of which haven't actually materialized into anything) that it's hard to tell second-hand how involved people are.


Hellheart's a possible ally here: He's in a subforum with Zark but feels like he's just being played for information. Could probably talk him into voting for Zark or DOM if we could get one of the two into a credible lynch situation.
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 26 Mar 2014, 10:05:33

I missed my targeting yesterday : \

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 10:11:33

rekard wrote:I missed my targeting yesterday : \


Wait, seriously? :(

That's... not great. It means a no-maul if you resolve as the alpha, which means we don't want you as the alpha, which means there's only two viable wolf roles for you. Ugh.

It may be time to declare Project Wolf-Win a failure and see about salvaging things.
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 26 Mar 2014, 10:23:53

With 2 dead wolves it is difficult. Now, we can do this. We try to make me human for now, and give you both bigger chances of being a dominant. Let's say I maul hmm Rictus and we do a lynch tomorrow. Admetus and Visigoth seem to be leaning to go for a human route so if they get out of the dominant race, you two have more chance.

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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 10:49:26

rekard wrote:With 2 dead wolves it is difficult. Now, we can do this. We try to make me human for now, and give you both bigger chances of being a dominant. Let's say I maul hmm Rictus and we do a lynch tomorrow. Admetus and Visigoth seem to be leaning to go for a human route so if they get out of the dominant race, you two have more chance.


But run that to the end-game and that leaves you alive, human, and knowing who the two wolves most likely are.

That's... not a situation that bodes well for spheno and I. ;)

I think it needs to be an all, nothing, or a deliberate sacrifice play of some kind (not a thing I'm suggesting at this time). Anything that leaves us all alive but with split allegiances is... bad.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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rekard
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Re: Wolf stuff.

Postby rekard » 26 Mar 2014, 11:01:45

Okaros. When the first dominant resolves, everyone else can be a wolf again.

Also, if the dominant gets through the end game, it kinda goes moot. Also at the end, there might be a lot of random involved. This is something we won't be able to control, just steer things a bit and try to get some luck.

From my experience in quantum, the more rigid grip you try to have in the game, the less you will be able to recover if there are bad news.


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