Fire the Guy in Marketing

Okaros, Hellheart, and Ryvvn. RIP PM box.
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 08:50:15

Hellheart wrote:
Okaros wrote:I don't think a sacrifice play is strictly necessary, but we'd need a credible alternative to offer. There's a lot of (at least speculative) interest out there in using you as a maul/lynch combo for ruling people out of the alpha role, Ryvvn.

(( Couldn't that plan backfire horribly if Ryvvn miraculously survives the lynch vote and ends up hitting 100% dead?


The 100% dead ratio would be a result from *everyone* jumping on-board the maul-Ryvvn train, which is something I think that's unlikely.

Plus, if we're really scared of that all it would take is either you or I being willing to not maul/vig Ryvvn.

I'm stirring a little bit of doubt on that front to help keep options open, but it would help if Ryvvn answered certain questions I've PM'd to him and not put them off until end of day. *cough*

We all know he's destined to be lynched, but it's Day 3. I see what you mean by a sacrifice play now, though - if we're going to use Ryvvn, we either have to keep him alive because several potential alphas vote to maul him tonight, or we have to lynch him tomorrow so you and one or two other players at most benefit from the paradox. ))


I don't see his lynch as pre-ordained, really. He's wiggled his way out of far uglier situations lynch-wise.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 12:37:44

(( He lone-wolfed himself into a win last game in a way that's not going to ever get him support from Rictus and That PJ. Some players are getting antsy and things are being shaken up a bit, though.

I think at some point in my conversation with sphenodont I passed a test (not mentioning the DOM plans in the Zark forum, passing along a wolf-rekard early vision instead of claiming no vision or a false vision). ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 15:42:26

I don't think PJ is in auto-lynch mode on Ryvvn. Rictus, on the other hand, may be worth lynching today if we can swing it. He's got no love for any of the three of us and is a competing sniper. If I'm still tied for lynch at EOD I'd expect him to try and snipe me.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 17:17:38

Sorry I'm not able to mull over scenarios with you guys, I'll be home from work in about an hour and then catching up (and hopefully remembering to log my maul & seer in time tonight); are we trying to coordinate mauls still?

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 17:37:02

(( I would LOVE to double-countersnipe Rictus. It makes very little sense and is probably a horrible idea, but it would confuse the shit out of people :lol: ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 17:38:03

Hellheart wrote:(( I would LOVE to double-countersnipe Rictus. It makes very little sense and is probably a horrible idea, but it would confuse the shit out of people :lol: ))



I'm okay with that in concept. I'll almost certainly need to snipe defensively. Going to vote stigmata for now.
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 17:42:29

If Rictus was up for snipe vote lynching, I would be going for it regardless; only a fool allows a scorned player to remain a threat.

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 17:44:57

Okaros wrote:
Hellheart wrote:(( I would LOVE to double-countersnipe Rictus. It makes very little sense and is probably a horrible idea, but it would confuse the shit out of people :lol: ))



I'm okay with that in concept. I'll almost certainly need to snipe defensively. Going to vote stigmata for now.

(( I originally meant that for me and Ryvvn but you and Ryvvn make all the sense in the world. It's practically expected of Ryvvn to get in on that...as long as he doesn't overshoot the mark and vote too late :P

DOM and Zark have started talking more in the REALLY Evil Alliance. spheno poked Zark about DOM and he brought it to DOM, naturally; I figure that could've easily been a test. In an RP-reason sense I'm virtually locked into voting for DOM at this point but there's a lot of votes to go and I would love to find a reason to vote Visigoth into a tie. I could easily get forced into burying DOM if sphenodont actually does vote for him and backs it up by poking Doofenshmirtz about it. ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 17:47:43

(( Do maul votes for high-percentage wolf players push you towards the human side at all? ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 17:53:22

Hellheart, if you wanted in on the sniping action you'd vote for me, Ryvvn would push Rictus up to tie. Then when the time comes, you and I both swap to Rictus, neatly countering his inevitable snipe to me.

You'd have to justify your vote on Rictus, though. :P




Otherwise we can slow-play this a bit. Thankfully we're not (yet) in rushing territory.
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 17:56:00

Hellheart wrote:(( Do maul votes for high-percentage wolf players push you towards the human side at all? ))


Slightly, I think: In the scenarios where they resolve as a wolf *without* dying and you won't be eligible to be the dominant wolf (because you can't maul a fellow wolf if they resolve non-dom, or you can't be the dom if they resolve as the dom). That's a pretty small subset though, since it relies on a scenario where they resolve without dying *and* requires that there be two wolves still open.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 17:56:55

Oh Visi, I could hug you right now. Pushing RIctus up as first to 3 is wonderful.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 18:07:15

Okaros wrote:You'd have to justify your vote on Rictus, though. :P

Otherwise we can slow-play this a bit. Thankfully we're not (yet) in rushing territory.

(( I could come up with a clearly delusional "Perry the Platypus in disguise even though he's sitting right next to me" reason but I'd rather save that for when it's genuinely going to be funny. I'll definitely make the stretch to save you if it becomes necesssary, but I don't think Rictus is going to survive the double-snipe as it is.

But if Rictus had been the one to bash Stigmata like that, I would practically insist on this plan because I can just imagine Rictus' reaction to something like that :evil: ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 18:11:18

If we can get away with just Ryvvn sniping that'd be awesome, but I'm going to prep for it just in case. I can easily apologize to rekard for sniping Rictus in self-defense after all: If he's still alive, the risk was worth it. If he's dead because Rictus was the vig, I don't have to apologize!
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 18:18:20

You could potentially push DOM to two votes now in-character, Hellheart. Could allow for more distraction since it'd be another 2-vote candidate.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 18:31:43

Also, that's MEM at 2 votes now. That PJ is voting for him and isn't in dferr's tally (I already sent a PM to dferr about it)

Edit: And by 2 I mean 3, thanks Aldax!
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 18:37:57

I wonder if I should snipe MEM, maybe return the favor to Rictus of not killing me last night, plus I did vote to maul MEM last night so I remove myself from potential alpha that way (though I wasn't concerned about it), if I understand things correctly?

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 18:39:25

(also, note to self: if nothing further gets mentioned about it here, submit random seering and maul to dferr in 10 mins!)

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 18:40:41

I would prefer Rictus over MEM (I think Rictus is more likely to lynch us directly), but it's only a moderate preference.

And yes, MEM dying today would resolve you not-the-alpha if you mauled him last night.
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 18:41:07

(( If you don't have a high wolf chance you won't resolve as Alpha, and if you don't resolve as alpha then lynching MEM makes no difference.

MEM is going to strongly support me because he likes my RP. Still better than losing Okaros, but Rictus actually has a reasonable chance of being a wolf I think. I was torn between Seering Rictus and Furin yesterday, and Furin seer'ed human so I'm kind of defaulting to Rictus-as-wolf.

Seering and mauling Admetus today, figure it'll probably drop my wolf percentage by a few decimal points if I'm right about him. ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 18:43:15

Yeah looking at who's on each wagon, I'm going to snipe Rictus.

Also, I did seer Admetus Night 0, so we can compare notes later if you'd like; I'll throw a maul his way tonight though.

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 18:53:25

You two and neckless are the only outstanding votes now.

I would greatly appreciate it if you two didn't double-snipe me to death tonight. :P
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 18:54:17

Okaros wrote:I would greatly appreciate it if you two didn't double-snipe me to death tonight. :P

Well now it would just be bad form ;)

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 18:55:45

Also, might want to check this morning's report on the status of neckless

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 18:56:17

Oh right, hah. Silly dferr has him listed in the not-voting column.
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 18:57:32

Ryvvn wrote:Also, might want to check this morning's report on the status of neckless

(( Yeah I was about to say, "bad form" would be quite the understatement for that sort of development :lol: ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 18:59:01

Rictus can't snipe in defense (he's on MEM already), so no need to play this right at the wire Ryvvn.
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 18:59:57

I wonder if he'll get the joke :twisted:

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 19:00:03

Okaros wrote:Rictus can't snipe in defense (he's on MEM already), so no need to play this right at the wire Ryvvn.

(( Listen to the ma...woma...catwom...cat-woman, Ryvvn. ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 19:01:05

Warrant Officer Schrödinger is male, thank you very much!
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 19:01:24

Also, thank you DOM for sparing me the need to snipe. :D
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 19:11:11

And in other news, I believe at least 3 mauls headed your way last night Ryvvn. I'd expect your death % to rise notcieably. Let us know if it doesn't for some reason?
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 19:13:52

Okaros wrote: Let us know if it doesn't for some reason?

Would I be allowed to?

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 19:18:14

Not the details. I *think* you're allowed to say things like "I didn't get any dead-/wolf-/etc...-er last night" though. Double-check with dferr to be sure?
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 19:27:23

Okaros wrote:Not the details. I *think* you're allowed to say things like "I didn't get any dead-/wolf-/etc...-er last night" though. Double-check with dferr to be sure?

(( Sphenodont sent me a PM yesterday that was was a lot more specific than that ("mostly dead") and nothing came of that, so "my dead percentage rose significantly" should be plenty fine. ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 19:31:25

(( If my Admetus seer comes up Wolf and Ryvvn's did as well, I'm going to bring it forward to the REALLY Evil Alliance. Might be worth forcing his lynch over Ryvvn's to try to get him to resolve as the Alpha. Sadly that'll kill Ryvvn anyway, but the other wolves get no benefit if he dies by maul instead of lynch. ))

(( EDIT: Okay, maybe not. Telling the REALLY Evil Alliance that I want to try to force the lynch of a likely wolf alpha before he resolves as not-Alpha is great...except if there's a wolf in the Really Evil Alliance. Who is possibly/probably either lying or being deceived here?

7-zark-7 wrote:Are any of you trending wolf? I know, I know. We're really not supposed to talk about fight club, but I'm thinking with two wolves down, it might make more sense to try to pull any wolf trenders over to the light side of the force with seer attempts tonight inside our little clubhouse.

I have literally no idea who to seer tonight & am open to suggestion.

DastardlyOldMan wrote:I'm doing my best, but I'm not trending anywhere near wolfhood at this point. I'm probably going to end up as a surprise wolf instead.

7-zark-7 wrote:This just in from Legoland:

sphenodont wrote:Well, for what it's worth, I've heard from a couple of people independently who have seen DOM as a wolf. If you're aiming for a wolf victory, he's a strong candidate for alpha at this point, but there's not a lot of room for a wolf victory right now.

I could get behind a mass-rekard seering. Any idea on the numbers we could get behind it? I can talk to some of the other people I've been in communication with.


I'm just having fun with the Rekard thing, but figure the scuttlebut on DOM may be of interest to our resident Old Man (ironically, they call me that sometimes). Wondering if Sphenodont is just feeling me out (ew), as any seer attempts would likely balance out (if I understand it) with voting for 2 wolves in the lynch.

more in a bit,

7z7


I seer'ed sphenodont as Human on Night 1, which jived with his "mostly dead" comment the following day, and a PM when he casted his DOM vote said that he's pretty certain that DOM could be the alpha.

I want to believe DOM, but he could easily be saying that to snow all of us...or just me and PJ. I'd feel like an idiot if I correctly judge that DOM is likely part of a wolf alliance and just approached Zark, only to find that Zark is part of the wolf alliance too. That's facepalm-worthy.

Also relevant is this DOM post early-ish yesterday:

DastardlyOldMan wrote:
That PJ wrote:Two wolves. I laughed--random odds are random. Curse my deeply ingrained pattern recognition!

With two wolves down, am I correct in thinking that aiming to turn up human is the best path to victory? Certainly if we all want to cross the finish line together--which isn't necessarily a given, since someone will probably get blasted by errant odds--we will want to be human.

Actually, since none of those were dominant, as of yet, the wolves haven't missed a maul. It *seems* like it's a good thing for the humans, but it really doesn't change a whole lot. There's still two more dead at this point that don't know it yet. Voting on you to start things off PJ, but I'll move as necessary.

If we want to focus more toward human, we'll want to start mauling the people that we're going to lynch - I haven't done anything of coordination yet.

I'll toss a seer toward rekard as well (this post made early-ish on Day 3). Maybe we all maul Rictus, and then try to lynch him on Day 4, making none of us the dominant?
))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 19:53:57

(( Human Admetus result. That surprises me. Could just have been RNG luck though. My wolf percentage jumped a bit (relative to the total), I wonder if Rictus just got RNG'd human or a couple possible alphas put in mauls for Rictus earlier. ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 20:03:00

Hellheart wrote:(( Human Admetus result. That surprises me. Could just have been RNG luck though. My wolf percentage jumped a bit (relative to the total), I wonder if Rictus just got RNG'd human or a couple possible alphas put in mauls for Rictus earlier. ))

Welp, I can't be the seer; I had seered Rictus as wolf previously. Not that it matters now, but my other seerings were Admetus as human and Visi as human.

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 20:11:25

My dead percentage did jump; it jumped nearly an equal amount, but not quite, as it had the night before.

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 21:26:56

I swear, if Zark agrees to what I just proposed via PM and actually follows through on his end he and I are going to be *hated* for a while. :lol:
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 22:40:07

Okaros wrote:I swear, if Zark agrees to what I just proposed via PM and actually follows through on his end he and I are going to be *hated* for a while. :lol:

(( What are your Seer results? rekard wolf, sphenodont human, FurinMirado human, Admetus human.

Ryvvn, unfortunate that you were "hurt" by the RNG swinging the other way after Necklessone; unless there was some odd conflict in the quantum scenarios, Necklessone flipping wolf was a very low-percentage play given how my wolf chance dropped sharply after his reveal. ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 22:48:03

i have two wolves in my results, one of whom is Zark from Night 0. I'll post more if it looks like I'm under proper threat.
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 26 Mar 2014, 22:52:19

Okaros wrote:i have two wolves in my results, one of whom is Zark from Night 0. I'll post more if it looks like I'm under proper threat.

(( That could explain one thing that surprised me, actually, although again it could've just been RNG giving you wolf.

I'm going to poke Admetus via PM to see what's up. Perhaps he was just as creeped out about not getting any PM's from me. Or he just didn't think about me

sniff :P ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Ryvvn » 26 Mar 2014, 23:08:09

Hellheart wrote:(( Ryvvn, unfortunate that you were "hurt" by the RNG swinging the other way after Necklessone; unless there was some odd conflict in the quantum scenarios, Necklessone flipping wolf was a very low-percentage play given how my wolf chance dropped sharply after his reveal. ))

Not sure what you mean by "hurt" unless you're specifically referring to the increase of my deadiness(?)

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 23:13:16

Also, if Zark doesn't accept my offer we may have to do something about him sooner rather than later. The amount of votes he's able to swing is a bit obnoxious.

(Ideally he accepts and he and I don't have to worry about each other anymore)
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 27 Mar 2014, 02:14:40

Ryvvn wrote:
Hellheart wrote:(( Ryvvn, unfortunate that you were "hurt" by the RNG swinging the other way after Necklessone; unless there was some odd conflict in the quantum scenarios, Necklessone flipping wolf was a very low-percentage play given how my wolf chance dropped sharply after his reveal. ))

Not sure what you mean by "hurt" unless you're specifically referring to the increase of my deadiness(?)

(( I may have this totally wrong, but doesn't resolving as the Seer mean that you're human by default?

It would be difficult for me to act against Zark because I expect him to avoid giving Doofenshmirtz any reason to vote for him...not to mention that, unless I act against him directly, I practically have lynch immunity until he loses control of the game. If it ends up being him or you I'll take him out, but we need to be damn sure he gets taken out when we move against him or it's going to get really messy, really quickly. ))

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 27 Mar 2014, 10:38:08

Yes, the seer is human (so is the vig) so resolving as the seer means you're human.


Looks like Zark is making his play vs. rekard. I'd expect retaliation from rekard's side of things, either directly at Zark or against DOM by proxy.

Zark is attempting to change the terms of the deal so he gets what he wants up front today and only gives a promise to follow through on his end tomorrow. I dislike this, but unless it's Zark/DOM vs. Rekard at EOD I'm not sure it's worth taking action on.
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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Okaros » 27 Mar 2014, 13:22:31

*hattip Hellheart*

The devil knows indeed!
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 27 Mar 2014, 13:23:08

Okaros wrote:*hattip Hellheart*

The devil knows indeed!

:lol:

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Re: Fire the Guy in Marketing

Postby Hellheart » 27 Mar 2014, 16:11:04

(( Those sphenodont votes feel planned or coordinated. If he's been slowly accumulating mauls since as far back as Night 1, his lynch could take whole swaths of wolves out of alpha consideration in addition to getting rid of a player who's pretty good at the PM game.

These votes are also coming the day after he was pushing the possibility that DOM is a strong potential alpha. I'm reasonably certain that sphenodont is the mouthpiece of a wolf-hunting alliance.

If you don't have a high enough wolf chance to have drawn suspicion from him, it might be worth pointing out that his best chance of survival today probably lies with a rekard lynch. That's your call; I'm pretty sure that he thinks Zark is part of a wolf alliance and would never listen to anything Zark proposes.

I think a couple of likely wolves mauled That PJ last night. Something to keep an eye on. ))


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