Choo choo!

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Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 13:01:02

Hooray, our own forum!
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 24 Mar 2014, 13:04:58

Excellent. You guys bring the vowels, I'll bring the consonants.

To pick up where the messages left off:
Okaros wrote:You're correct. Ultimate team goal is to have all three of us resolve together on the winning team.

Mauling together would be most useful after the first couple of deaths give us something to build on. While it's more likely to result in someone's death-by-maul it would also increase the odds of at least one of us being a wolf I think, which is not something we necessarily want to push before we have an idea of which way our overall team affiliation is shaping up.

We could, of course, deliberately try and force ourselves human or wolf from the start, but that seems like an extra bit of challenge that we may not need to deal with just yet.

I agree, trying to push it this early seems silly and likely to result in failure and disappointment. So we're at the mercy of randomness until then. Got it.
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Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 24 Mar 2014, 13:09:38

Yarr!

dferrantino wrote:Holy shitballs guys, you've got your own board.


Thanks, heh.


As I understand it, becoming not-Alpha is pretty easy. You simply lynch someone on your previous maul list. Given a little coordination and a bit of a voting bloc, that's one wolf you can't be. As Okaros mentioned, if you're trying to increase your chances of being a wolf, you can coordinate maul targets, and protect them from being lynched. It reduces the number of conflicts and keeps you from being ruled out as the primary.

But outside of influencing the chances of resolving as the dominant wolf, it's harder to have an effect.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 13:17:22

You can also make yourself more generally-wolfy by forcing yourself to not be the seer/vigilante. Denying the vig role works the same as denying the dominant wolf role: Vig someone then get them lynched before you resolve.

You can also deny the Seer role if you seer someone early as a wolf and then lynch them. The RNG ought to be in favor of most people being human at the moment, so lynching someone you seered as wolf will likely result in your losing the role.

Of course the danger is that if that person *does* flip wolf you've just upped your chances of being the seer dramatically, particularly if other people have seered the victim as human. :)
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 24 Mar 2014, 13:42:51

I thought there was a tip about seering in the signup threads, but a reread didn't reveal anything. Wasn't there some comment like "if you seer someone as wolf, you're probably not the seer?"

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 13:57:49

Admetus wrote:I thought there was a tip about seering in the signup threads, but a reread didn't reveal anything. Wasn't there some comment like "if you seer someone as wolf, you're probably not the seer?"


Yes, can't recall who said that but that was tip exactly. Probably due to the likelihood of your initial seer target dying and flipping human.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 24 Mar 2014, 14:52:09

In theory, you have ~75% to outright not be the Seer at that point, if I understand these odds correctly (because there are 1 in 4 odds of anyone being a wolf, so if you see a wolf, you're probably seeing wrong). Rand can screw that right up, though.

This is tough. You have to plan on likely odds, but the odds are likely that a few times the unlikeliest odds will come to pass.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 24 Mar 2014, 18:52:05

All this wheeling and dealing in PMs and yet here we sit all nice and quiet-as-we-please.

I'm going to snag someone innocuous and non-threatening for my seer/maul targets tonight, I suggest you guys do the same. No point closing off possibilities until the first bodies start showing up on the floor. Tomorrow should be more interesting, hopefully.


On that note, how do you two feel about rekard? Getting a feeler from him that I don't entirely trust. I'm on his "revenge" list, after all...
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 24 Mar 2014, 19:12:03

Okaros wrote:All this wheeling and dealing in PMs and yet here we sit all nice and quiet-as-we-please.

I'm going to snag someone innocuous and non-threatening for my seer/maul targets tonight, I suggest you guys do the same. No point closing off possibilities until the first bodies start showing up on the floor. Tomorrow should be more interesting, hopefully.


On that note, how do you two feel about rekard? Getting a feeler from him that I don't entirely trust. I'm on his "revenge" list, after all...

Not much to do yet, until some more chips fall.

I have a hard time reading rekard, as evidenced by completely missing his wolfiness last game. For similar reasons, I feel I wouldn't see a double-cross coming, and that makes me very nervous. How'd you get on his revenge list?
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 24 Mar 2014, 19:49:28

Hio. Mondays are the most busy for me. I'm just getting back online and catching up now.

Maybe dferrantino can elaborate on exactly what happened, but it seems there might have been a period where at least 7-zark-7 could read this forum. I was saying hi, and he said "so I guess you're in that Vowel Train thing," etc.

Rekard pinged me today which I thought was a little unexpected. I agree with earlier-Okaros that recommended we keep it small for the early game, but maybe we could bring him in later. Oh, you were talking about whether he was trying to set something up in PMs, maybe? I guess maybe. In the last PM heavy game, the Lovers' game, he seemed more like a player that would continue conversations that other people started, but not as much start them himself.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 24 Mar 2014, 19:57:23

Admetus wrote:Maybe dferrantino can elaborate on exactly what happened, but it seems there might have been a period where at least 7-zark-7 could read this forum. I was saying hi, and he said "so I guess you're in that Vowel Train thing," etc.

Well, that's disconcerting. Do you mean you have RL contact with Zark, or was this via PM or something?
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 24 Mar 2014, 19:59:27

Twas a PM.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 24 Mar 2014, 20:08:15

Haha, the PM aspect of this game is craaaazy.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby dferrantino » 24 Mar 2014, 20:14:25

Admetus wrote:Maybe dferrantino can elaborate on exactly what happened, but it seems there might have been a period where at least 7-zark-7 could read this forum. I was saying hi, and he said "so I guess you're in that Vowel Train thing," etc.

Sorry, yeah, that happened. Short period of time, but I screwed up group permissions for a bit and a small group had access to it. Not sure how much or what they saw, but they've been warned that discussing it at all will get them WoG'd.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 24 Mar 2014, 21:36:56

It's fine, there was nothing major to hide. I think that means we can infer that Zark has his own group, and their group may know our group's membership (really the only thing of note that one could have seen).

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 25 Mar 2014, 06:59:29

Does hitting a wolf change much for us at this point? It seems like no, we still don't have much to go on.

I put forth Aldax's name for the lynch, but I'm not too attached to it if push comes to shove. Since he's finally talking, did he respond to your invitation, Okaros?
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 25 Mar 2014, 11:38:09

I'm wondering if we shouldn't maybe coordinate our mauls. I remember that's also a method for becoming more wolfy, because with a block of people that have identical maul orders, as long as those mauls are valid, each person could be Wolf 1 to Wolf 4 interchangeably. That largely steps up the number of states that count those people as the same team. And if we decide we don't want to be on the wolf team (like for instance the wolves lose another person tonight), then we simply campaign to invalidate the mauls with one lynch.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 25 Mar 2014, 18:11:29

That PJ wrote:Does hitting a wolf change much for us at this point? It seems like no, we still don't have much to go on.

I put forth Aldax's name for the lynch, but I'm not too attached to it if push comes to shove. Since he's finally talking, did he respond to your invitation, Okaros?



Aldax has not bothered to respond to my PMs at all. As far as I'm concerned he's fair game. :)


Coordinating mauls isn't a bad idea. Any thoughts on possible targets?

Also trying to decide who needs to be lynched today. Hmmm.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 25 Mar 2014, 18:17:04

Maybe MEM for the maul? He's usually pretty lynch-resistant and so far has attracted only stray votes. That would give us someone we can use to invalidate ourselves if need-be, but also leaves the wolf option open (although if we lynch another wolf today we'll probably want to close that option out at some point).
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 25 Mar 2014, 18:18:35

I could be on board with a MEM maul.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 25 Mar 2014, 19:03:24

Is the day over? I think I missed my chance to switch to MEM in time. If the time allows I'll follow, though.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 25 Mar 2014, 19:07:52

Admetus wrote:Is the day over? I think I missed my chance to switch to MEM in time. If the time allows I'll follow, though.


Pretty sure the day's over at this point.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 25 Mar 2014, 20:58:27

Okay, it's time to be not-wolves. Let's try to get your MEM lynched, then we can work on someone for me.

Hmm. It's actually going to be hard to get traction on a MEM lynch, maybe, since he was killed Day 1 of last game. What angle can we use to suggest it? It would not be something I would naturally propose, but I can jump on later. Probably want him at least to be a candidate by tomorrow morning.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 25 Mar 2014, 21:26:42

I'll take MEM if we can get him, but I think rather than trying to force it we should just do a proper maul->lynch setup for tonight/tomorrow.

Suggestions on who?
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 25 Mar 2014, 22:10:25

How about Ryvvn? I think it'll be easier to knock him out, he's had attention during the other days as well. Unless maaaaybe that means that since it's less likely that people would have mauled him, they probably have other agendas to push?

Either way, given his last game, I'm thinking people will be willing to finish the lynch they started yesterday.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 25 Mar 2014, 22:18:12

Also, Zark is asking for a mass seering on Rekard. He'd like to narrow his options a little bit. I guess I can accommodate that.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 26 Mar 2014, 06:10:13

I Seered rekard last night, so already got that covered.

My current status is pretty solid, but let's see about getting all of us there. I like Ryvvn as a target, but he is known as the Teflon man for a reason. Still, his last second sniping bugs the hell out of me (and will do so especially in the future, when I will not be around for EOD), and that alone is a cause I can rally behind.

I am open to alternatives, of course.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 06:12:09

Admetus, is that bit of info about Rekard safe to share elsewhere, or will it trace back to you? I might be able to secure some good will from him in trade for the tip off about Zark trying to work around that hypothetical vig shot but I'll skip it if it's going to cause you trouble.


Ryvvn could be a possibility, but the trick may be in keeping him alive long enough to make it happen. I think he's setting up a suicide run.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 26 Mar 2014, 06:19:01

Okaros wrote:Admetus, is that bit of info about Rekard safe to share elsewhere, or will it trace back to you? I might be able to secure some good will from him in trade for the tip off about Zark trying to work around that hypothetical vig shot but I'll skip it if it's going to cause you trouble.

If it helps, I got the nudge from Zark, too, so he's clearly reaching out to multiple people. That doesn't mean he won't seize on a thread of logic that traces back to Admetus, but it's less likely with several possible origins for the information. Actually, I'd bet Zark is counting on it getting back to rekard.


Ryvvn could be a possibility, but the trick may be in keeping him alive long enough to make it happen. I think he's setting up a suicide run.

What would be the purpose of a suicide run? I ask that in pure ignorance; I just don't know what the angle would be or how one would execute it.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 06:35:48

I agree, since Zark said "mass seering," I think he wanted it to be passed around a bit. You could probably share that with rekard.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 06:59:06

That PJ wrote:What would be the purpose of a suicide run? I ask that in pure ignorance; I just don't know what the angle would be or how one would execute it.


Given his lone-wolf victory last game, he's assuming he's going to get lynched at some point and wants to (depending on how much I believe him) either hand the game to someone else in the process or do as much general chaos as possible.

Of course, the person he's handing the game to probably changes depending on who he's talking to, so I don't entirely trust him on that front.


In a normal game, if he were human I'd just say maul him and be done with it. If we had a resolved, unfired vigilante that would also be a great way to shortcircuit whatever he's planning. As it stands though, we may just have to bite the bullet (what I'm leaning towards) and deal with the consequences or leave him alive for later. Hopefully he's not the one responsible for my growing slightly deader last night.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 07:18:09

Sorry, I'm not really getting a solid understanding of what the plan is right now. Are you saying we should maul/tomorrow-lynch Ryvvn, or just immediately lynch him? If the second one, who are you proposing we maul/tomorrow-lynch?

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 07:39:45

Sorry, I'm waffling a bit while I sort out the implications in my head. I'm suggesting we either go ahead with the maul/lynch plan or steer clear of him to avoid getting blown up.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 26 Mar 2014, 08:19:08

I'm waffling, too.

I don't trust Ryvvn. At all. It is logical to assume that people will gun for him based on his win, but I don't believe that someone would completely rule out personal victory. He can only benefit by admitting what is already self-evident and claiming to play Kingmaker rather than actually vying for victory--since that would just confirm suspicions and lead to his demise. If he's offering to help multiple people win, it's because he believes those people can put him away and wants them invested in keeping him around.

So, on the one hand, it is absolutely in our best interests to put him away as quickly as possible. He's not working with anyone; he's working everyone.

On the other hand, he is a good player and has a lot of ears right now, I suspect. He can cause a lot of grief for whoever tries to put him away. So I don't really want to point that gun in our direction. It might be smartest to leave him alone and watch how things play out somewhere else. His gambit might work and he survives, or someone else does the job for us. A quick lynch would be the cleanest solution, which I suspect is why he's watching EOD so damn carefully. But then, he always seems to do that.

So, it's like this, to me. I don't think he makes a good maul-then-lynch target, because that's too slow, and there's too much time for things to go awry. If we're not going to just outright get rid of him as an obstacle (presumably via very solid lynch), then we should just leave him alone and let him focus on something else.

Edit to add: It's worth noting that if Ryvvn's goal is simply 'I want to win/live/survive,' and this game is turning up humans, he'd be a useful human to have around. So it might actually benefit us to just leave him alone.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 09:42:45

Oh my. This Zark vs. Rekard thing may be building to a head.

rekard seems convinced that "mass seer" is really "mass lynch" and is looking for allies to counter the growing influence of Zark/DOM. I've made supportive noises so far, but don't have a particularly heavy interest in the fight (I don't like the amount of influence/protection Zark has, but I also expect rekard to stab me in the back).

He's also looking at possibly trying to lynch off some of Zark's (unspecified) friends, so depending on how deeply involved with Zark you guys are you may want to keep an eye out. rekard's at least claiming to have sources closer to Zark than me (not all that difficult :lol:) so he may have a better idea of who's really involved there.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 09:54:05

Interesting that he told you that, but didn't tell me anything similar when I was speculating to him about Zark + Hellheart.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 09:57:58

Admetus wrote:Interesting that he told you that, but didn't tell me anything similar when I was speculating to him about Zark + Hellheart.


Hrm. Rekard could be trying to sucker me. I trust him about as far as I can throw an anvil.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 10:06:16

Yeah, and I'm not about to go ask him directly. I couldn't say "Okaros said etc etc."

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 10:09:34

Admetus wrote:Yeah, and I'm not about to go ask him directly. I couldn't say "Okaros said etc etc."


Yeah, that might not be the best for either of us. :lol:

I suppose it could also be a timing quirk. Was your discussion with him last night or this morning? While I'm inclined to assume betrayal is lurking in rekard's shadow, I should at least admit the possibility that he received new information in-between the two conversations.
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 10:16:08

Sent last night but he replied this morning. He hasn't been very talkative, which seems normal for our conversations (compared to Lovers).

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 10:17:48

Actually that's not right. It was this morning and he hasn't replied yet.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 10:19:39

Admetus wrote:Sent last night but he replied this morning. He hasn't been very talkative, which seems normal for our conversations (compared to Lovers).


hrm. Inconclusive then. My conversation with him happened in a fairly quick back-and-forth burst this morning. so either one of us could have come first.



Edit: Wait, if he hasn't replied yet then how is it suspicious that he hasn't mentioned it? :?
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 10:35:15

It isn't, I misremembered the timing.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 10:50:05

Admetus wrote:It isn't, I misremembered the timing.


Oh, okay. Phwew. Things make more sense then. I'll be curious to see if he mentions it if/when he replies.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 26 Mar 2014, 11:05:16

Haven't heard anything from Zark's end about a rivalry ramping up, but I don't think that's too surprising until/unless he wants to leverage more people. Unless you have. No contact with rekard.

I'll stay tuned, but I won't be around at EOD tonight, so if we want to coordinate, let's do it earlier.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 13:49:15

I'm doubting Ryvvn gets traction today since he has no votes yet and it's the late afternoon. I will try mauling Ryvvn tonight and we can kill him tomorrow.

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Admetus » 26 Mar 2014, 15:49:33

Quick check-in. Going to be harder to change things as I'm going to be on phone from here out. I know Ryvvn wasn't the top choice for maul tonight lynch tomorrow plan, but I don't see any other names put forward, so I'm still on Ryvvn. If someone wants to suggest a backup, we're up to A > B > C level of contingency for tonight, in case the lynch reveals the Alpha.

Let's try not to lose Okaros before we get him off Alpha!

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Re: Choo choo!

Postby That PJ » 26 Mar 2014, 16:07:45

Admetus wrote:Quick check-in. Going to be harder to change things as I'm going to be on phone from here out. I know Ryvvn wasn't the top choice for maul tonight lynch tomorrow plan, but I don't see any other names put forward, so I'm still on Ryvvn. If someone wants to suggest a backup, we're up to A > B > C level of contingency for tonight, in case the lynch reveals the Alpha.

Let's try not to lose Okaros before we get him off Alpha!

Barring other plans, I think I'll join you on that plan, maybe rekard as a backup. Don't trust either of 'em. Still undecided about Seer.

May not get a chance to drop in before EOD, but I'll try.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 26 Mar 2014, 16:19:45

rekard as a backup to Ryvvn's maul sounds okay-ish. Lets go with that.
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Re: Choo choo!

Postby Okaros » 27 Mar 2014, 10:58:49

Hummm. Looks like we get the Zark vs. rekard showdown today?

I'm kind of tempted to help nursemaid this whole showdown thing into a coinflip at the end. I'd be pretty happy with either one going under, I think.
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