Round 5: Pocket Change

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Hellheart » 24 Apr 2014, 20:52:33

Okaros wrote:(( I'm inclined to read Zark's failed snipe as human, honestly.

A Networker would know it wasn't needed: Even with vote manipulations humans were going to die either way, so hooray! They come out ahead.

It does make me wonder if he has a vote manipulation power though, since the snipe attempt makes much less sense otherwise. ))

How do you read Smirker's posting near the end of that day? I obviously thought it was odd enough to point out at the time.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Simple_Simon » 24 Apr 2014, 20:54:17

Okaros wrote:
Simple_Simon wrote:
Okaros wrote:
Simple_Simon wrote:Instead you nuke our seer day 1 so you can set up your reveal.


(( Explain how we could possibly have known Ryvvn was the seer on Day One, please? ))


Nope. Nuke me.



(( Right, you can't explain that because it's not possible. Any other questions you want to throw up as a smokescreen? ))


So after you nuke me, what happens when I come up human tomorrow?


((We sigh at a human having so gleefully helped the Network and start getting far more useful lynch results? ))


[+] don t say I don t do nice things for you
Image


Actually I have a question, kind of important then I'll probably leave you alone. Or I'll be asleep.

You guys say you're each human, but how do you know that for 100% sure. None of us have anything for 100% at this point. How can you actually post that you know you're a hundred percent human each? Given that there is no way in fuck you can be 100% sure (unless again I'm missing something) that leads to this ...

Who came up with the ideal for your reveal? As twins, who's the one that presented the idea that you two eventually adopted. More importantly, when? Before or after the seer turned up dead?

Look you have to agree with me here (again unless I am derping some more), it's awfully convenient you two being hooked up the way you are. In public the way you are, with absolutely no repercussions available for it. You guys have a near perfect immunity to all attack (that's probably why I've been mashing all this up, because it's fuckin fun to try :)). That's what I'm getting at. I don't trust that power, I really don't think you're wielding it in our best interests. I really, really, really don't think so.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Simple_Simon » 24 Apr 2014, 20:58:13

That PJ wrote:
Simple_Simon wrote:New post to respond to your edit:

I know you said you were responsible for the votes, that's absolutely not what I am asking. Let me ask it again in case it's not clear.

Why did you have to nuke ryvvn? Wouldn't it have been more beneficial to keep your powers secret and use them at a later time when you can do the humans more good (thus completely eliminating the need to have this stupid conversation in the first place) and then reveal?

If we're not around to use them because we're dead, then no, it is not better to keep them secret. It was a 50/50 chance that both of us die or Ryvvn--a completely unknown player--got the lynch. Since we are 100% certain of our humanity, we went with the sure thing, because possibly living for a few more days was superior to dying immediately.

Instead you nuke our seer day 1 so you can set up your reveal. Oh that's right, without a seer we can't vouch either of you and without concentrated effort or a vig we can't get rid of you either. Win/Win for you, lose/lose for us.

You want me to believe you're on our side?

Yeah, smart guy, we totally planned on nuking the seer. We knew he was the seer because we're mad awesome seers ourselves. Also we can vig shot and have GA abilities. Seriously, why is this confusing? It was bad luck. Day 1 analysis is pretty meaningless to this conversation, so I can't help but think your obsession with it is deliberate misdirection.

We need to look at Day 2 and Day 4 in particular, since that's when we were actually driven to using our vote snipes once it was well known what we could do. Day 3, as Okaros has noted, we did not influence the vote, even if vote influencing were possible. It was a deliberate choice. While we didn't trust rekard, at the time I voted we didn't know he was going to wind up being the top bandwagon. I think there were a lot of 3-vote wagons at that point, though I'd have to go back and check. Still, there's probably some helpful analysis to be had, because there was a solid attempt at pushing us up (especially in the beginning of the day).

Hellheart: you keep cutting Simple_Simon slack for not voting on us until we were in definite danger, but he was telling everyone to come get us long before he voted yesterday. I don't think that absolves him of suspicion (it certainly doesn't to us).


[+] you know the drill
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Honestly, I'm not a networker.

I don't trust you is all. Because of that I have to try and remove you from the game. I believe in my very core that removing that power (you two) will net us a networker in the trade and take a mostly harmful power out of the game.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Simple_Simon » 24 Apr 2014, 21:09:02

Alright I think that's enough. Is it really ever enough?

Anyway. Here's the cards ...

I'm human, I my role is Shane something or other. Bully extrordinare. Also the role PM said I'm an ass, and I think that was added special for me.

Now. Humans who don't trust you should have a duty to try and kill you. I think we've concluded our points on the matter. As long as you're alive this game I will continue to plot against you, unless a more valid or obvious target presents itself. Or I will be dead.

On that note, g'night folks.

[+] aha not at the top this time
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For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 21:09:12

Simple_Simon wrote:You guys say you're each human, but how do you know that for 100% sure. None of us have anything for 100% at this point. How can you actually post that you know you're a hundred percent human each? Given that there is no way in fuck you can be 100% sure (unless again I'm missing something) that leads to this ...


(( After Night Two I can't be 100% sure PJ wasn't converted (or vice-versa). Before that? At the start of the game, the only way I could be more certain is if a GM note had read "PJ is a human, you idiot".

I was the one that brought up the possibility of needing to reveal ourselves at some point in order to defend our eventual voting to save one another, and started the discussion about the implications of it early in the morning on Day One. Both PJ and I had concerns from the start that we'd be convenient Day One lynch targets.


If PJ were converted after Night Two, I have almost zero way of actually knowing since we've been backed into a corner the entire time. He's said and done nothing to arouse my suspicions so far, but then again he also hasn't had much of any opportunity.

Thus, even ignoring the fact that Network has no need to convert him (or me) with the way the lynch votes have gone, I'm going to continue assuming he's human until I at least have an opportunity to investigate otherwise. ))
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Simple_Simon » 24 Apr 2014, 21:14:19

Okaros wrote:
Simple_Simon wrote:You guys say you're each human, but how do you know that for 100% sure. None of us have anything for 100% at this point. How can you actually post that you know you're a hundred percent human each? Given that there is no way in fuck you can be 100% sure (unless again I'm missing something) that leads to this ...


(( After Night Two I can't be 100% sure PJ wasn't converted (or vice-versa). Before that? At the start of the game, the only way I could be more certain is if a GM note had read "PJ is a human, you idiot".

I was the one that brought up the possibility of needing to reveal ourselves at some point in order to defend our eventual voting to save one another, and started the discussion about the implications of it early in the morning on Day One. Both PJ and I had concerns from the start that we'd be convenient Day One lynch targets.


If PJ were converted after Night Two, I have almost zero way of actually knowing since we've been backed into a corner the entire time. He's said and done nothing to arouse my suspicions so far, but then again he also hasn't had much of any opportunity.

Thus, even ignoring the fact that Network has no need to convert him (or me) with the way the lynch votes have gone, I'm going to continue assuming he's human until I at least have an opportunity to investigate otherwise. ))


[+] werd
Image


I'm still missing something there? The GM told you that he was human?

Just to confirm, nothing else.
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby stigmata » 24 Apr 2014, 21:22:44

Ozymandias wrote:
That PJ wrote:Hellheart: you keep cutting Simple_Simon slack for not voting on us until we were in definite danger, but he was telling everyone to come get us long before he voted yesterday. I don't think that absolves him of suspicion (it certainly doesn't to us).

By the same token, I don't think Smirker should be absolved of suspicion just because he didn't actually vote for one of you.

Indeed, the fact that he conspicuously expressed concern about how dangerous you two were in the last hour and then did not vote for you when given the opportunity I think makes him more suspicious, not less.

Because if he were a Network instigator, he'd want to keep his hands clean so that he wouldn't be blamed for lynching a Human.


I don't see much else that makes sense at the moment. I'll lean towards Smirker until someone says something more useful, I guess?

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Okaros » 24 Apr 2014, 21:28:00

Simple_Simon wrote:I'm still missing something there? The GM told you that he was human?

Just to confirm, nothing else.


(( Per the rules, I can't quote you what Neckless said in my role/power PM. I can only say that, based on the way my powers are worded, I'm very sure we'd have to either be both Network or both human at the start of the game.


And to answer the inevitable followup that ignores previous answers: Back on Day 2 Ozy already provided the answer for why we couldn't/shouldn't both be Network at the very start of the game. ))
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Admetus » 24 Apr 2014, 22:05:49

Holy cow this thread got off to a running start.

I had to give serious thought at the end of Day 4 to switching over to Okaros. I don't think it's likely a twin has been converted. But at the same time this witch hunt has to stop for us to make any progress. I strongly believe we're getting far less information than we should be chasing a twin lynch. We could let them vote separately, and play it out normally, or we could shoot them and put them out of our misery.

Sadly, even if I'd switched from CAD to Okaros, it would have been a coin flip at best, and I felt CAD was more likely to be Network than the twins.

Think about this from the Network standpoint. There have only been two conversions, one of them just last night. What do they get from converting a Twin versus what they'd get from a random other person? There's zero chance the twins are going to live to the end game, so we're only be talking about the benefit of influencing the Twin vote cannon. But why spend the conversion bandwidth on that when just about the same benefit comes from having the twins around without the control? And how much influence would it be to control one of their votes when for the most part they're just reflex-attacking whoever's the biggest vote trail?

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Admetus » 25 Apr 2014, 00:07:55

Okaros wrote:Admetus is reading almost sociopathically "human Admetus" to me, which means I'm keeping him firmly in my "Neither human nor wolf" column.

This still makes me chuckle. I have no idea what it means, though.

Oh wow, I guess typing it out shook loose a thought. You really actually meant third party with separate goal. I hadn't even considered there might be one of those.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 04:22:24

Okaros wrote:(( I'm inclined to read Zark's failed snipe as human, honestly.

A Networker would know it wasn't needed: Even with vote manipulations humans were going to die either way, so hooray! They come out ahead.

It does make me wonder if he has a vote manipulation power though, since the snipe attempt makes much less sense otherwise. ))

Can't be powers-based. His powers were nullified last round.

Speaking of, so were Smirker's, and this is the second morning after he's been nullified that we haven't seen a graffiti message.

Ozymandias wrote:By the same token, I don't think Smirker should be absolved of suspicion just because he didn't actually vote for one of you.

Indeed, the fact that he conspicuously expressed concern about how dangerous you two were in the last hour and then did not vote for you when given the opportunity I think makes him more suspicious, not less.

Because if he were a Network instigator, he'd want to keep his hands clean so that he wouldn't be blamed for lynching a Human.

That... is a good point. He's even been subtle enough that it didn't blip on my radar. And this:
Smirker wrote:Nope. I fully recognize how dangeroush they will be in the latter shtagesh of thish epic adventure. My primary goal was h to state that I agree with that ashshement. Shecondarily, I wanted to shee who did go after them and if they themshelves would put in an appearance.

Doesn't make me feel any better. That's essentially a restatement of what we're accusing him of doing, isn't it? Trying to get a reaction out of us and convince other people to pile on without personally doing so?

Simple_Simon wrote:I'm human, I my role is Shane something or other. Bully extrordinare. Also the role PM said I'm an ass, and I think that was added special for me.

Now. Humans who don't trust you should have a duty to try and kill you. I think we've concluded our points on the matter. As long as you're alive this game I will continue to plot against you, unless a more valid or obvious target presents itself. Or I will be dead.

So there is a Piss Taker in this game! Hallelujah! (If you're confused, refer to ICB in the Hot Fuzz game).

That's a pretty bold reveal, to be honest, because there is probably a Peter Page floating around here with a Vig Shot customized for you, and maybe a personal victory associated with it.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby FurinMirado » 25 Apr 2014, 05:01:51

simple_simon makes it a three-way tie, I believe. I could be convinced to switch to Smirker. He hasn't been on my radar but I agree that soft pushing the Twins' lynch without actually voting for them is suspicious.

There was a game a while back, I wish I could remember which one, in which simple_simon played a Wolf and acted very much like he has so far this game. It feels human to me but I've been proven wrong once before.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Rictus » 25 Apr 2014, 05:20:02

Simple_Simon's semi-reveal has lowered him a few notches in my threat meter... He was definitely reminding me of his times as a wolf where he went full aggressive in the thread once he started getting heat.

See TWG LXIV: Fall and Rise of the Draker Kingdom

I thought more about the twins and here's my opinion. There are five cases:

1) Both started out as Replicants. Holy smokes easiest game ever. I realize that the roles assignments were random, so if this happens then we should all just agree that Fate/God/Cthulu has predetermined this game and nothing we do really matters.

2) Both were human, but both are converted. Terrible, terrible move for the Network and I can't see this being a realistic option.

3) Both were Human, and at least one has been replaced by a robot. Possible... If not currently, then it's at least something that has been discussed on the wolf board.

4) Both were Human, and still human. More likely than not. There's only 2 Replicants, and 2 converts in a 22 (?) person game.

5) One was a Replicant from the beginning of the game. This is probably the one that bothers me the most, although unlikely. Probably should handle this the same was as case (3).

So at this point I feel confident saying at least one is human, maybe likely both. I am swayed by their arguments that they are trying to vote independently. I'm not swayed by the idea that they are a threat because they can throw 4 votes on a person, and so should be destroyed pre-emptively.


edit: Furin Mirado... I think you and I were seeing the same thing for Simple_Simon. lol. He was also a head wolf in the Wizard game and he was pretty brazen in that one as well.
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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 25 Apr 2014, 05:33:23

((Peter Ian Staker. Probably my best RP. man, the memories.

Sorry if I seemed needlessly antagonistic last night. I think the asking to be vigged just pressed a button. I stand by what I believe about the twins, but yes, I was angry.))

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 05:55:11

Admetus wrote:
Okaros wrote:Admetus is reading almost sociopathically "human Admetus" to me, which means I'm keeping him firmly in my "Neither human nor wolf" column.

This still makes me chuckle. I have no idea what it means, though.

Oh wow, I guess typing it out shook loose a thought. You really actually meant third party with separate goal. I hadn't even considered there might be one of those.



((To clarify a little: I'm saying you read so stereotypically "human Admetus" to me that I don't trust the read at all. Given the setting I'd be really surprised if there was a "classic" sociopath out to kill us all, but if there was someone out there with a victory conditon/goal completely independent of the human/Network tug-of-war you're my current top candidate.

From a practical standpoint, I'm treating you as someone I effectively don't have a read on and keeping a close eye on you. :P



Hellheart, I've been pondering your request for my musings on Smirker. Rather than rehash the arguments/reasonings presented so far (which are mostly what my thoughts are), I'd like to ask you (and those who've voted for him) the following 2-part question:

a) Do you think he's an original Networker, or a Convert?

b) In light of your answer to a), what do you think about his actions on Day Two, when he broke a 3-vote tie and pushed DOM to 4?

I'm especially interested in Hellheart's response to b) for reasons that I'll spell out later if I have to, but there's an implication here that he's not mentioning (and that I expect him to have been aware of) and I don't want to taint his response with my own words/speculation. ))
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby necklessone » 25 Apr 2014, 06:38:21

I might not be around at deadline to end the day. If one of the admin's could do so after deadline, I'd appreciate it. I'll get the next day started as soon as I can.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby RaveBomb » 25 Apr 2014, 07:32:56

It will be done.
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 25 Apr 2014, 07:55:16

RaveBomb wrote:It will be done.

It is known.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby RaveBomb » 25 Apr 2014, 07:57:12

Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
RaveBomb wrote:It will be done.

It is known.


So say we all.
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
RB: I shot the seer didn't I? Omega: Of course you did.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 25 Apr 2014, 08:04:38

RaveBomb wrote:
Iron Clad Burrito wrote:
RaveBomb wrote:It will be done.

It is known.


So say we all.

For the greater good.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby dferrantino » 25 Apr 2014, 08:31:17

The greater good.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby RaveBomb » 25 Apr 2014, 08:36:50

dferrantino wrote:The greater good.


... outweighs the good of the few...
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Iron Clad Burrito » 25 Apr 2014, 08:49:13

RaveBomb wrote:
dferrantino wrote:The greater good.


... outweighs the good of the few...


Or The One, Neo.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Apr 2014, 08:49:16

Hellheart wrote:Veering off of the current topic: whoever triggered this change in game rules is Human. This will force the Network to convert from a known list of less than half of the players in the game, so it's incredibly anti-wolf.

I'm not so sure about that-- the Network will all be able to coinflip the same way, which would likely place them in the majority, making them immune from the Day 6 lynch. That's a pretty good trade-off for more limited conversion options.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Hellheart » 25 Apr 2014, 08:53:22

Ozymandias: if all 4 Networkers choose the same result - and they cannot know when they make this choice that the missed vote penalty would be automatic coinflip loss - then they could be left with a very small list to choose from. Why wouldn't they just run this event yesterday, or tomorrow? They'd still get immunity, but they wouldn't restrict their conversions.

Okaros wrote:
Admetus wrote:
Okaros wrote:Admetus is reading almost sociopathically "human Admetus" to me, which means I'm keeping him firmly in my "Neither human nor wolf" column.

This still makes me chuckle. I have no idea what it means, though.

Oh wow, I guess typing it out shook loose a thought. You really actually meant third party with separate goal. I hadn't even considered there might be one of those.



(( Hellheart, I've been pondering your request for my musings on Smirker. Rather than rehash the arguments/reasonings presented so far (which are mostly what my thoughts are), I'd like to ask you (and those who've voted for him) the following 2-part question:

a) Do you think he's an original Networker, or a Convert?

b) In light of your answer to a), what do you think about his actions on Day Two, when he broke a 3-vote tie and pushed DOM to 4?

I'm especially interested in Hellheart's response to b) for reasons that I'll spell out later if I have to, but there's an implication here that he's not mentioning (and that I expect him to have been aware of) and I don't want to taint his response with my own words/speculation. ))

Actually, it was pushing DOM out of a 2-way tie, because right before Smirker's vote the tally would look like this:

DastardlyOldMan : 3 : MaxFrost, Visigoth, twdog
That PJ : 3 : dferrantino, Antipater, Meta4
rekard : 2 : That PJ, RaveBomb
San : 2 : Stigmata, Hellheart
Hellheart : 2 : rekard, Blindsniper

But I'm guessing you mean that DOM is pushed out ahead of a 3-way tie involving me, and presumably if Smirker is a networker on Day 2 he could be voting to protect either San or me. The next vote, by Simple_Simon, ties That PJ with DOM at 4; that pretty much sealed DOM's fate, and it's an easy tie vote for Simon, but Simon isn't really being disruptive at this point. If both of them are Networked, there's no way they were the originals - that pair of votes is way too obvious for that to be true. But I digress.

Personally, I think that if he's Networker on Day 2, the players tied at 2 here also cannot be Networkers. If Smirker is ever lynched and flips Networker, his vote for DOM will stand out like a sore thumb. If the other starting Networker is in {San, Hellheart}, then a surprise Smirker lynch in the next couple of days would leave the Network with one player (or two after conversion). It's worth noting that this makes him a great conversion target on Day 2 if the Network was looking for somebody with reveal implications. I think that vote for DOM is so obvious that if Smirker wanted to protect a Networker at 2 there, he would've voted for rekard instead.

You know that at this point, That PJ has a vote on rekard. So if the twins need to protect themselves and have a choice between players to pile on, it looks like rekard's going to be picked if he's an option. With that in mind, I read Smirker's vote there in one of two ways:
  1. He's a Networker, and he's setting you two up to kill a human so you get a bunch of heat on Day 3. An obvious vote for DOM doesn't matter here because he knows you'll have the final votes on DOM, but pushing him up to 4 means someone will certainly vote That PJ to re-tie at 4, forcing you to double-vote somebody.
  2. He's not a Networker, but he thinks that rekard is human and doesn't want him voted up to 3 and killed by Twinvotes. He pushes up DOM to keep rekard out of the danger zone.

I couldn't tell you with any degree of certainty whether he was originally a Networker. I think it mainly depends on whether you think Smirker's Seer-reveal reaction post was genuine. It was a little too breezily dismissive when I initially read it, to be honest, so I'd instinctively lean towards him being an original.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Apr 2014, 09:28:10

Hellheart wrote:Ozymandias: if all 4 Networkers choose the same result - and they cannot know when they make this choice that the missed vote penalty would be automatic coinflip loss - then they could be left with a very small list to choose from. Why wouldn't they just run this event yesterday, or tomorrow? They'd still get immunity, but they wouldn't restrict their conversions.

That's a good point. You're right-- whoever triggered the Coinflip is most likely Human.

But I still think this early in the game the Coinflip is likely to work to the Network's benefit: there are currently 22 players, so restricting the conversion to the minority will still give them probably about 7-9 choices (counting Blindsniper and Meta4). That doesn't really seem like too much of a problem, especially if most or all of the Network wind up immune to the lynch.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby sphenodont » 25 Apr 2014, 09:30:33

That PJ wrote:Sphenodont feels like a Day 2 acquisition, too, or perhaps an original playing the obfuscation game with his RP, but I might be biased because he seems to be the only one not playing into the movie's flavor. :) Still, his votes appear to be awfully helpful in getting us into trouble, and very nicely timed.


We come to bar, we drink, we gamble, some people pass out. How is that not flavor? Gog think you might be able to taste more flavor if you took your head out of Gerki's ass.

(Gog has nothing personal against twin-of-thief, but is spiteful of backstabbing sneak! Gog thinks that twins need to stop being distraction before someone decide to squash them. Not Gog of course. Gog is gentle soul.)


{I'll have guests over tonight, so I will be scarce most of today. Right now, my thoughts are that stig and Admetus are very good acquisitions for the Network, and Antipater, being a new guy, is also likely to draw heat. The votes have been really thrown off by the twins trying to preserve themselves, which is too much of a distraction to get a clean read without digging more. I promise to try to get better reads on the situation tomorrow and contribute better.}

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 09:49:41

Ozymandias wrote:
Hellheart wrote:Ozymandias: if all 4 Networkers choose the same result - and they cannot know when they make this choice that the missed vote penalty would be automatic coinflip loss - then they could be left with a very small list to choose from. Why wouldn't they just run this event yesterday, or tomorrow? They'd still get immunity, but they wouldn't restrict their conversions.

That's a good point. You're right-- whoever triggered the Coinflip is most likely Human.

But I still think this early in the game the Coinflip is likely to work to the Network's benefit: there are currently 22 players, so restricting the conversion to the minority will still give them probably about 7-9 choices (counting Blindsniper and Meta4). That doesn't really seem like too much of a problem, especially if most or all of the Network wind up immune to the lynch.

Doesn't it also give us a narrow(er) list of would-be Network? Especially if we believe the current Network will vote into the majority for immunity--4 among them should be Network. We can't vote on them tomorrow, but it'll shine a big spotlight on them thereafter. Of the rest, 1 must be the Day 6 conversion, so we've narrowed that list as well.

Am I missing something in all of that?
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Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 09:55:42

(( I <3 you too, spheno. :twisted: :lol:

Thank you for that post, Hellheart. It's the missing piece from your Smirker analysis. As you note, if Smirker's an original Networker his push of DOM to 4 right after you got pushed to 2 could be a panic reaction to save you or San (by triggering a counter-push on PJ to 4).

I think that's somewhat unlikely due to how risky it is long-term but it's a scenario I thought was worth metioning/discussing, particularly since it implicates you. I'm currently more inclined to think that if Smirker is a Networker he's a convert rather than an original.


On the subject of today's game:
I'm not convinced the games we've seen so far have been player-triggered. Games have so far fallen on odd-numbered days, with the exception being Day One which is probably enough of a game all by itself. CAD's power explicitly mentions overriding GM games, so I'm currently inclined to think this coinflip game is a GM event. Unless someone wants to step forward and role-claim for it? :?: ))
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Ozymandias » 25 Apr 2014, 09:59:33

That PJ wrote:Doesn't it also give us a narrow(er) list of would-be Network? Especially if we believe the current Network will vote into the majority for immunity--4 among them should be Network. We can't vote on them tomorrow, but it'll shine a big spotlight on them thereafter. Of the rest, 1 must be the Day 6 conversion, so we've narrowed that list as well.

Am I missing something in all of that?

No, that's right, which is why I suspect they would do a 3-1 split instead of 4-0.

But remember they're converters, not wolves, and when we finally kill one we're not going to know when they were converted-- and they'll have two more conversions coming after the Night 6 minority conversion.

So from a practical standpoint I don't think the spotlight will be that illuminating. But yes, it will help some.

EDIT: I guess what I'm really saying is this game would have been much more useful for the Humans if it had been triggered on Day 9 the day before the final Network conversion.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Admetus » 25 Apr 2014, 10:24:35

dferrantino is still pinging my wolf radar. He's barely in the game, seems like just laying low. And while other days he's made one content-free vote post, today we get a post that suggests he's been reading along, just not posting in this thread.

I may move on to a vote that matters more, I'm especially looking at Simon, Smirker, and ICB -- but I wanted to bring that up because dferrantino's been suspicious to me all game.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 10:38:25

(( Our current speculation is that dferr's silence is a power activation requirement rather than necessarily being a Networker tell. The Hot Fuzz game had the human statue role do something similar IIRC. Here it could be the statue as a role? ))
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby 7-zark-7 » 25 Apr 2014, 10:47:04

necklessone wrote:Today's Game Rules
Each player will PM a vote of Heads or Tails to the GM during the Round. The players who are in the majority of responses will be safe from lynch, conversion, or maul during Round/Night 6.

Players may not discuss which side of the coin they voted for in this thread or entice others to vote for a particular side.


&

Hellheart wrote:Veering off of the current topic: whoever triggered this change in game rules is Human. This will force the Network to convert from a known list of less than half of the players in the game, so it's incredibly anti-wolf.


Ozymandias wrote:But I still think this early in the game the Coinflip is likely to work to the Network's benefit


So I may have missed something. Do we have official word this coin toss is a player triggered event & not just the pub food they're serving here now? Because I have to tell you, The Good Companions seems a mite different than I remember.

Because that bride & groom over there say they've got the pub scheduled for their rehersal, & the woman is going on and on about flippin coins.

I wouldn't call that bloke she's with a player. He's two blondes & a redhead short of a Marmalade Sandwich

Now you've got me thinking about Rekard again

You should probably be thinking about the twins

Odd thing that. I need a piss first

How is that odd?

Well, I wish Sam were here. Back in a bit,

How is that about Sam?

More in a bit,

7z7
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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 10:50:34

Okaros wrote:(( Our current speculation is that dferr's silence is a power activation requirement rather than necessarily being a Networker tell. The Hot Fuzz game had the human statue role do something similar IIRC. Here it could be the statue as a role? ))

I know I'm the one the put forward the speculation between us, but I'm not as confident about it anymore. He's not the only rather quiet player. They make reads hard and that makes me nervous. I assume similar logic is why he placed a vote on Visigoth. If he's not Network to begin with, someone experienced who isn't drawing a lot of attention would seem, to me, a good acquisition.

The only two memorable acts I have from him are:
- Tying me up with rekard on Day 2 (a meager 2-vote tie)
- Pushing Smirker and Meta4 on Day 3, tying them both up with the then-leaders.

Neither of which are particularly mind-blowing moves.
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Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby 7-zark-7 » 25 Apr 2014, 11:07:35

Our heros in unison are bold and purple(I wasn't sure what color to use for group chat - just go with it): They charge into the loo hearing their friend in trouble Oh shit, what's going on?!

Thank God you're here! It's going to take all five of us to defeat this one headless robot!

Won't that directly groinpunch all the scenes later on when we wipe the floor with dozens of robots, including the fully restored version of this one?

No, because we'll be more powerful by then, by virtue of being more drunk. Yay for alcoholism, is the message we're going for.

More in a bit,

7z7
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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby PA System » 25 Apr 2014, 11:19:34

Smirker

Also I can't PM for some reason, so if an neckless or an admin can just randomly pick one for me (I would announce it here, but I see reasons not to) that would be great.

Good luck fellow humans, because it really is a toss up to me, although I have my suspicions.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby MaxFrost » 25 Apr 2014, 11:22:41

I'll try to be more vocal, but that's gotten me killed in the past (in both roles)

Very crazy discussion. I'll try to post my thoughts here soon from the peanut gallery, as I'm not usually one to step out in the limelight.

I will agree with the Twins though. Namely in their thought that I would be a good person to pick up for network. I haven't taken much heat vote wise yet, which I honestly find really strange. Specially since I've managed to vote humans out 3 days in a row now, and yet I still haven't been sandbagged yet.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby 7-zark-7 » 25 Apr 2014, 12:03:11

Right - on topic of Twins as conversion candidates. I'm trying to figure out which folk the network want to kidnap & fill with ink.

Not quite how I'd put it

Hush you - now the twins have been vocal. Stereo even. But more importantly, they've been on every lynch vote as a pair.

Do your own damn research wrote:day 1: Ryvvn : 7 : Okaros, Hellheart, Rictus, Antipater, That PJ
day 2: DastardlyOldMan : 8 : MaxFrost, Visigoth, twdog, Smirker, Okaros, That PJ
day 3 tiebreaker: rekard : 7 : Hellheart, That PJ, Rictus, sphenodont, Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, Smirker
Meta4 : 7 : dferrantino, rekard, Ozymandias, Rictus, Okaros, Iron Clad Burrito, FurinMirado
day 4: Clearasday : 6 : That PJ, Admetus, MaxFrost, Okaros


((Now, if I were electing people to join my team, I'd probably look for people who are flying slightly further under the radar. I don't know if I'd actively avoid everyone who voted on a bandwagon, but "these guys voted together several times & always killed a human" is perhaps not a description I'd pick out of the hat as one with a long life expectancy. PS - day 3 lynch vote was very odd without the wondertwin effect, but with Okaros listed on both bandwagons. I suspect shenanigans, but had no bandwidth that day, & still need to catch up in thread))

More in a bit,

7z7
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"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 12:55:58

Antipater wrote:Also I can't PM for some reason...


(( I think you have to hit 10 (I think it's 10?) posts before you can PM. ))
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 12:58:46

Okaros wrote:
Antipater wrote:Also I can't PM for some reason...


(( I think you have to hit 10 (I think it's 10?) posts before you can PM. ))

((Quick! Go spam the Village Pub! ;) ))
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Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby dferrantino » 25 Apr 2014, 13:44:46

7-zark-7 wrote:((Now, if I were electing people to join my team, I'd probably look for people who are flying slightly further under the radar. I don't know if I'd actively avoid everyone who voted on a bandwagon, but "these guys voted together several times & always killed a human" is perhaps not a description I'd pick out of the hat as one with a long life expectancy. PS - day 3 lynch vote was very odd without the wondertwin effect, but with Okaros listed on both bandwagons. I suspect shenanigans, but had no bandwidth that day, & still need to catch up in thread))

Being visible is nicely offset by having essentially 3 extra votes. Makes either of them very hard to kill, and gives a very convenient place to hide. Any associations people start to make with the voting record can be easily explained away.

That said, this is a conversion game, vote records mean exactly jack and shit. Which, in a way, makes either of them an even more convenient conversion target.

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby necklessone » 25 Apr 2014, 14:07:19

The count as I see it.

Smirker : 3 : Ozymandias, Stigmata, Antipater
Okaros : 2 : Simple_Simon, Meta4
Simple_Simon : 2 : Hellheart, FurinMirado
7-zark-7 : 1 : Rictus
dferrantino : 1 : Admetus

No vote recorded (13) : 7-zark-7, Blindsniper83, dferrantino, Iron Clad Burrito, MaxFrost, Okaros, RaveBomb, San, Smirker, sphenodont, That PJ, twdog, Visigoth

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Simple_Simon » 25 Apr 2014, 14:33:41

I have no idea why I am bothering but I'm going to try and be constructive while you railroad me.

So I decided to go through all the day threads and count out how many posts each person has made. This is based on two theories, the first that the network would convert those that are quiet and under the radar. The second is a personal theory and I wanted to see if the data would correlate well with it. There currently isn't enough data to say for certain. The theory is that after the conversions we could see a change in someone's post tempo.

So the quiet ones for the purpose of this chart we're going to include only players with fewer than 1.51 posts per day.

[+] Data long
    Blindsniper83
  • Day 1 = 1 post
  • Day 2 = 2 posts
  • Day 3 = 1 post
  • Day 4 = 1 post
  • Total = 5
  • PPD Average = 1.25

    dferrantino
  • Day 1 = 1 post
  • Day 2 = 1 post
  • Day 3 = 1 post
  • Day 4 = 1 post
  • Total = 4
  • PPD Average = 1

    Meta4
  • Day 1 = 1 post
  • Day 2 = 1 post
  • Day 3 = 1 post
  • Day 4 = 1 post
  • Total = 4
  • PPD Average = 1

    Ravebomb
  • Day 1 = 1 post
  • Day 2 = 1 post
  • Day 3 = 2 posts
  • Day 4 = 2 posts
  • total = 6
  • PPD Average = 1.5

    Rictus
  • Day 1 = 1 post
  • Day 2 = 0 posts
  • Day 3 = 1 post
  • Day 4 = 1 post
  • Total = 3
  • PPD Average = 0.75

    San
  • Day 1 = 1 post
  • Day 2 = 1 post
  • Day 3 = 1 post
  • Day 4 = 1 post
  • Total = 4
  • PPD Average = 1

    stigmata
  • Day 1 = 0 posts
  • Day 2 = 4 posts
  • Day 3 = 1 post
  • Day 4 = 1 post
  • total = 6
  • PPD Average = 1.5

    twdog
  • Day 1 = 1 post
  • Day 2 = 1 post
  • Day 3 = 1 post
  • Day 4 = 1 post
  • Total = 4
  • PPD Average = 1

    Visigoth
  • Day 1 = 1 post
  • Day 2 = 1 post
  • Day 3 = 1 post
  • Day 4 = 1 post
  • Total = 4
  • PPD Average = 1


So now that you can see the above let's make sure we're on the same page. RL distractions and stuff happen. I'm not presenting the above as proof that any of these fine folks have been converted. However the average posts per day for all players is 2.346 (excludes CAD's average because he's now dead). These people are all significantly below that. Some of them it's their MO, some have missed days. It's nothing conclusive but it's a concrete list based on real data. I also want to make clear that this is not an attempt to use people's busy life against them. It's been brought up several times that the quiet ones are most likely to be converted, I just wanted to see who exactly has been most quiet.

The full list of players below the average PPD ...

[+] more data
    Below average PPD
  • 7-Zark-7 @ 1.75
  • Antipater @ 1.75
  • Blindsniper83 @ 1.25
  • dferrantino @ 1
  • FurinMirado @ 2
  • MaxFrost @ 2.25
  • Meta4 @ 1
  • Ravebomb @ 1.5
  • Rictus @ 0.75
  • San @ 1
  • Stigmata @ 1.5
  • twdog @ 1
  • Visigoth @ 1


So now I want to look at my data from a different perspective. Who had drastic changes in PPD from day 2 to day 3? So let's start by looking at people who got quieter from day 2 to day 3 (and into 4)

[+] list
Blindsniper83 has 3 posts total for days 1 & 2, only 2 posts (excluding today) since.
MaxFrost has 6 posts for days 1 & 2, only 3 posts (excluding today) since.
Stigmata has 4 posts for days 1 & 2 (note stigmata missed day 1 entirely), 2 posts since (excluding today)
ThatPJ has technically gotten quieter as well, 13 posts for days 1 & 2, 10 since (excluding today)

Let's look at those that got louder after the first conversion.

[+] list
Admetus has 7 posts for days 1 & 2, 11 posts for 3 & 4.
HellHeart has 5 posts for days 1 & 2, 15 posts for 3 & 4.
Iron Clad Burrito has 5 posts days 1 & 2, 15 posts for 3 & 4.
Simple_Simon has 4 posts days 1 & 2, 11 for 3 & 4.
Smirker has 3 posts for days 1 & 2, 10 for 3 & 4.
sphenodont has 4 posts for days 1 & 2, 9 for 3 & 4

Everyone else is relatively stable.

Correlate that with those involved with the twins shenanigans. This isn't an attack against the twins, just trying to narrow the list down to who could be using them against us if such a thing is even possible.

Voted against twins:

[+] list
Simon - 2(3) (3 if you include the retraction day 3)
Meta4 - 2
Sphen - 1
Ryvvn - 1
DOM - 1
Ozy - 1
dferr - 1
Anti - 1
Stig - 1
blind - 1
Rictus - 1
ICB - 1


Voted with the twins

[+] list
Rictus - 2(3) *3 if you include the split vote day 3, 1 with PJ & okaros, 1 with just Okaros*
Hellheart - 2
MaxFrost - 2
Smirker - 2
Ozy - 1(2) *2 if you include the split vote day 3, one with PJ other with Okaros*
Antipater - 1
Visigoth - 1
sphen - 1
rekard - 1
dferr - 1
Rave - 1
Admetus -1

So can we try and use the above data to sort a smaller list of possible suspects?

Quiet people who voted against the twins:

[+] list
Meta4
deferrantino
antipater
stigmata
blindsniper83
Rictus

Quiet people voted with the twins:

[+] list
Rictus
MaxFrost
Antipater
Visigoth
deferrantino
Ravebomb

Let's call folks who appear in both lists neutral, and scratch them from both ...

Quiet people who voted against the twins:

Meta4
stigmata
blindsniper83

Quiet people voted with the twins:

MaxFrost
Visigoth
Ravebomb

So let's set up the opposite direction. People with above average PPD (let's call them loud) who voted against the twins:

[+] list
Simple_Simon
sphenodont
Ozymandias
Iron Clad Burrito

Loud folks who voted with the twins:

[+] list
Hellheart
Smirker
Ozymandias
sphenodont
Admetus

remove doubles:

Loud against:
Simple_Simon
Iron Clad Burrito

Loud with:
Hellheart
Smirker
Admetus

The reason I am concentrating on who is with and against the twins is because they're involved in every death thus far this game. Again it's not an attack against them specifically (we've been over that and I'm done with it). So I guess it all boils down to which train of thought you subscribe to.

If you believe the network is quiet players and are manipulating the twins' vote (forcing them to kill humans, meaning voting against the twins) your suspects would be Meta4, stigmata, & blindsniper83. If you believe people who are loud and manipulating the twins' vote (forcing them to kill humans, meaning voting against the twins) are network then your suspects should be Simple_Simon, Iron Clad Burrito.

If you believe the network is pushing targets up to be lynched by the twins (voting with the twins), and believe the network consists of quiet players your suspects should be MaxFrost, Visigoth, Ravebomb. If you believe the network consists of loud players pushing targets up to be lynched by the twins (voting with the twins) your suspects should be Hellheart, Smirker, Admetus.

Anyway that's a small bit of data dump I decided to do. Full post data available here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing)
For what it's worth, though, his talking to himself is awfully entertaining.-sphen
You're adorable-Rave
he is a master bullshitter so he could just take things out of his own ass or whatever comes from his mind to argue.-Rekard

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby 7-zark-7 » 25 Apr 2014, 14:49:19

Holy Rusted Metal Batman

Would you hush? You're making a fool of yourself

Is it Friday again?

Are you telling me you weren't impressed by all that.... I don't know what to call it

Math?

No, Stala... Stalagmites

Cave Rock formations?

I think you mean Statistics

Pretty sure it's Stalagmites

A stalagmite is a type of rock formation that rises from the floor of a cave due to the accumulation of material deposited on the floor from ceiling drippings.

I mean, my rock has been known to rise if you take my meaning. No ceiling dripping though. Would definitely have the rock lobster checked out if that started happening. Speaking of which, where is Sam? Is she hooking up with us again later?

Why do you keep asking about her?

The same reason you keep looking at Rictus

I'm sure I don't know what you mean.

Sure you don't. Pure coincidence, I expect

More in a bit,

7z7

((PS - check out the thread titles. I now seriously doubt the coin toss is a ~specific~ player action. I do find it interesting that our game days occur on odd days, while even days are for conversions. And day 3 & 5 titles matched the game. The latter makes me doubt this, but I'll put it out for consideration... is there a third faction? Maybe the gang from cheers is in on this))
"Zark Helmet is too awesome NOT to use!" -Smirker
"The possibility that it's Zark simply murdering someone at a whim each day... would be delightful if true, but I worry that that's too simple a solution." - Okaros

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 14:55:02

Simple_Simon wrote:I have no idea why I am bothering but I'm going to try and be constructive while you railroad me.

Thank you for bothering. I really appreciate posts like that.
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby RaveBomb » 25 Apr 2014, 15:04:45

I have always found Zark to be of an outstanding character and have a strong liver.

redacted was Rictus
If our team loses, it's going to be entirely your fault.-rekard
If you still end up losing after this, it's totally not your fault.-Hellheart
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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby twdog » 25 Apr 2014, 15:17:04

I'd be mildly surprised if either of the twins was converted, assuming they were both normal to start with. Obviously, they aren't going to last till the end game, and right now I'd say the network needs players that have a decent chance of making it that far. Vote analysis is (obviously) going to be problematic, and one of the tells will be if someone switches their pattern. Thus their first converts will probably be someone that isn't a high probability lynch, and they want their first converts to be someone who can make it to the end game without that weird vote pattern switch.

I'm running off the assumption someone made today's game happen. That said, I'm inclined to go with Ozy RETRACTED WAS OZY because his comments about this being a bad for a human to start the coin flip game sounds hollow to me. After all, why wouldn't this human do it today, and then do it again after his power has cooled off? Ozy is a strong player, so I'm sure he's thought of that. It's not anything close to conclusive evidence, but that's the best I've got to go on. It sounds better to me than either of the other choices.


edit:

retracting my vote on Ozy, I want to reconsider in light of these two suspiciously rapid votes on rictus.
you hear an odd muffled noise in the shoggoth tank

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Okaros » 25 Apr 2014, 15:23:34

Simple_Simon went a-fishing, for to catch a whale--
I kind of assume Okaros is out to backstab me until proven otherwise. - DOM

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby Admetus » 25 Apr 2014, 15:23:42

Zark, you've got a few things confused.

Subject: Rules & Questions

necklessone wrote:Vampires, Werewolves, Secret Mafias, and the FBI...
...are not in this game. There are only two factions.


And regarding this:
7-zark-7 wrote:PS - day 3 lynch vote was very odd without the wondertwin effect, but with Okaros listed on both bandwagons.

Subject: Round 4: The Famous Cock

necklessone wrote:As you were all caught up in the dart game, you almost didn't realize that someone had chosen to act as referee. Vote manipulation was cancelled yesterday. Any vote manipulation powers that were activated yesterday did not count (and do not have to cooldown before use).

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Re: Round 5: Pocket Change

Postby That PJ » 25 Apr 2014, 15:23:45

--but all the water he had got was in Smirker's ale!
PJ's general resignation towards fate is good enough. -Okaros
Then he went and shot himself, saved me and got himself lynched because of it. You magnificent fool! -Mister E. Meat


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